David Stockman: Trump tax reform overhaul is a pipe dream, stocks are heading for 40-70% plunge

Stockman: Stocks to plummet 40-70%
Stockman: Stocks to plummet 40-70%

David Stockman is warning about the Trump administration’s tax overhaul plan, Federal Reserve policy, saying they could play into a severe stock market sell-off. Stockman, the Reagan administration’s director of the Office of Management and Budget, isn’t stepping away from his thesis that the 8½-year-old rally is in serious danger.

“There is a correction every seven to eight years, and they tend to be anywhere from 40 to 70 percent,” Stockman said r “If you have to work for a living, get out of the casino because it’s a dangerous place.”

“This market at 24 times GAAP earnings, 21 times operating earnings, 100 months into a business expansion with the kind of troubles you have in Washington, central banks [are] going to the sidelines,” he said. “There’s very little reward, and there’s a heck of a lot of risk.”

Stockman argued that President Donald Trump’s business-friendly tax reform bill, which was unveiled Wednesday, won’t prevent a damaging sell-off. He previously said Wall Street is “delusional” for believing it will even be passed.

“This is a fiscal disaster that when they [Wall Street] begin to look at it, they’ll see it’s not even remotely paid for. This bill will go down for the count,” said Stockman.

He said White House economic advisor Gary Cohn and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin “totally failed to provide any detail, any leadership, any plan. Both of them ought to be fired because they let down the president in a major, major way.”

Nick Note: this biggest stock market wipeout in history is right around the corner. it will be followed by a housing wipeout and the TRUMP GREAT DEPRESSION….. And its worth billion if not trillions in profits if you know what to do …. and i sure as shit know exactely what to do!!!!!

 

Iran nuclear deal: Tehran expects US to ditch agreement, says FM

Iran’s foreign minister has said he assumes that the US will abandon the international deal restricting his country’s nuclear activities.But Mohammad Javad Zarif said he hoped Europe would keep the agreement alive. US President Donald Trump – a stern critic of the deal – will announce next month whether he believes Iran has adhered to its terms. If he says it has failed to do so, US Congress will begin the process of reimposing sanctions on Iran. Mr Trump said the agreement was an “embarrassment” in a speech to the United NationsFrance, Germany and the UK – which along with Russia and China signed the deal – have recently defended it.  In an interview with two British newspapers, Mr Zarif said that if the deal collapsed, Iran would no longer have to follow its limitations on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers and the production of plutonium. But he insisted Iran would only use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. “You either live by it [the deal] or you set it aside,” Mr Zarif told the Financial Times and the Guardian. “You cannot be half pregnant.” “My assumption and guess is that he [Trump] will not certify and then will allow Congress to take the decision,” Mr Zarif said during the interview at the Iranian UN mission’s residence in New York. “The deal allowed Iran to continue its research and development. So we have improved our technological base. If we decide to walk away from the deal we would be walking away with better technology.” He said of Mr Trump: “I think he has made a policy of being unpredictable, and now he’s turning that into being unreliable as well. He has violated the letter, spirit, everything of the deal.” Mr Zarif said Iran’s options “will depend on how the rest of the international community deal with the United States”.”If Europe and Japan and Russia and China decided to go along with the US, then I think that will be the end of the deal,” he said. “Europe should lead.”European Union officials have said they could act to legally protect European investors in Iran if the US reimposes sanctions.

Iraqi military preparing to take control of Kurdish borders

Iraqi Kurds holds a large Kurdish flag as they walk near the citadel towards a gathering urging people to vote in the upcoming independence referendum in Arbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq, on September 13, 2017.
SAFIN HAMED | AFP | Getty Images Iraqi Kurds holds a large Kurdish flag as they walk near the citadel towards a gathering urging people to vote in the upcoming independence referendum in Arbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq

Iraq’s military prepared Saturday to take control of the international borders of the northern Kurdish region. The move is part of the central government’s stepped-up efforts to isolate the Kurds following their vote on independence earlier this week. On Friday evening, Iraq instituted a flight ban that halted all international flights from servicing the territory’s airports. Iraqi troops now in Turkey and Iran are expected to start enforcing control over the border crossings in and out of the Kurdish region, but are not expected to move into Kurdish territory. Abdul-Wahab Barzani, director of intelligence at the crossing point from the Kurdish region into Turkey, said Iraqi troops are in position on the Turkish side of the border.

Oil climbs to five-month high as tension over Iraqi Kurdistan rises
Oil climbs to five-month high as tension over Iraqi Kurdistan rises

“So far they have not contacted us,” he told The Associated Press. He said he heard they plan to set up a customs point some 15 meters (16 yards) away on the Turkish side and traffic is expected to continue to be allowed to pass the crossing normally. The escalation feeds worries in the United States, a close ally of both the Kurds and Baghdad, that the referendum vote could lead to violence, setting off an unpredictable chain of events. The nonbinding referendum, in which the Kurds voted overwhelmingly in favor of independence from Iraq, will not immediately result in an independent state.

Spanish police move in to stop banned Catalan independence referendum

Catalan police officers 'Mossos d'Esquadra' try stop pro-referendum people from going into 'Escola Collaso i Gil' school on September 29, 2017 in Barcelona.
PAU BARRENA | AFP | Getty Images Catalan police officers ‘Mossos d’Esquadra’ try stop pro-referendum people from going into ‘Escola Collaso i Gil’ school on September 29, 2017 in Barcelona.

Authorities in Madrid have moved to stop an independence referendum in the Spanish region of Catalonia this weekend, with reports that police have sealed off polling stations and raided a telecommunications center. The national government has said police have secured 1,300 of 2,315 schools in Catalonia which had been designated as voting stations, according to Reuters. This comes after 163 schools were occupied by families to prevent their closure. Police will also remove people from polling stations on Sunday, the news agency reported citing a government source. The source did not give details on how this would be carried out but said it would be up to the police as to how they remove people. Volunteers staffing the centers will be liable for fines of up to 300,000 euros ($354,360), according to the source. Pro-independence lawmakers hope the northeastern region will gain complete political and economic autonomy from Spain despite the referendum putting Catalonia in open defiance of central authorities in Madrid. Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont told Reuters on Friday the vote would go ahead, without any last minute compromises. Earlier on Saturday, Spanish police raided the Catalan government’s telecommunications and information technology center, the La Vanguardia newspaper reported, citing RAC1 radio station. Spain’s Interior Ministry could not confirm the raid, according to Reuters.

Trump lashes out at San Juan mayor who begged for more help

Federal agents provide security to a truck discharging gas at a gas station, after the island was hit by Hurricane Maria, in San Juan, Puerto Rico September 28, 2017.
Alvin Baez | Reuters Federal agents provide security to a truck discharging gas at a gas station, after the island was hit by Hurricane Maria, in San Juan, Puerto Rico September 28, 2017.

President Donald Trump on Saturday lashed out at the mayor of San Juan and other officials in storm-ravaged Puerto Rico, contemptuous of their claims of a laggard U.S. response to the natural disaster that has imperiled the island’s future. “They want everything to be done for them when it should be a community effort,” Trump said in a series of tweets a day after the capital city’s leader appealed for help “to save us from dying.” “Such poor leadership ability by the Mayor of San Juan, and others in Puerto Rico, who are not able to get their workers to help,” Trump said. The tweets amounted to a biting response to San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulin Cruz, who had accused the Trump administration of “killing us with the inefficiency” after Hurricane Maria. She implored the president, who is set to visit the U.S. territory on Tuesday, to “make sure somebody is in charge that is up to the task of saving lives.” Trump has pledged to spare no effort to help Puerto Rico recover from Maria’s ruinous aftermath, and tweeted that military personnel and first responders had done “an amazing job,” despite having “no electric, roads, phones etc.”

Puerto Rico, he said, “was totally destroyed,” and “10,000 Federal workers now on the island are doing a fantastic job.”

Irma Maldanado stands with Sussury her parrot and her dog in what is left of her home that was destroyed when Hurricane Maria passed through on September 27, 2017 in Corozal, Puerto Rico.
Getty Images

“We are dying, and you are killing us with the inefficiency,” Cruz said at a news conference. “I am begging, begging anyone that can hear us, to save us from dying.” Trump, from his golf club in New Jersey, took to Twitter to accuse Cruz of partisan politics.
“The Mayor of San Juan, who was very complimentary only a few days ago, has now been told by the Democrats that you must be nasty to Trump,” the president charged, without substantiation.

Continue reading “Trump lashes out at San Juan mayor who begged for more help”

Canada’s wake-up call to the US on NAFTA

  • Elizabeth Warren: Even Canada can see that “right to work” laws in the US undercut American workers
  • NAFTA renegotiations need to add a repeal to the provision that allows states to enact them at the expense of workers’ wages, health care and pensions, she writes

(CNN)President Donald Trump, a loud and persistent critic of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), recently began renegotiating this trade deal with Canada and Mexico. The President promised to secure a fair deal for American workers. That sounds great. After all, we don’t think Americans should be forced to compete with poorly paid workers from Mexico or elsewhere, and we can demand that companies that want to trade with us lift wages, benefits, and health and safety standards for their foreign workers. So it probably came as a shock that one of Canada’s main goals in this renegotiation is to get the United States to treat our own workers better. Canada doesn’t want its workers competing with poorly-treated laborers — including workers in the United States. And they have a specific target in mind.

Elizabeth Warren
Elizabeth Warren
 According to Canada’s major newspaper The Globe and Mail, Canadian negotiators are urging the United States to roll back so-called state “right to work” laws that undercut worker power in the US. I’m glad we’re renegotiating NAFTA because it has been a raw deal for American workers. But the Canadians are giving America a wake-up call. As negotiations continue, the United States should take a close look at how our own broken labor policies are hurting American workers — and fix them. The Canadians focused on so-called “right-to-work” laws, the state regulations that make union dues optional even when unions bargain and represent all the workers. These state laws are a powerful weapon in the war against working people. Twenty-eight states have passed these laws, whose main purpose is to make it harder for workers to have the resources they need to stand up for themselves. Because of these laws starving unions of resources, union leaders face an uphill battle when they try to help workers join together to advocate for higher wages and benefits. And the completely predictable consequences for workers in these states have been devastating.

Continue reading “Canada’s wake-up call to the US on NAFTA”

A majority of Americans say NFL shouldn’t fire players for kneeling during the national anthem: Poll

  • President Donald Trump is at odds with a strong majority of the public on whether NFL players should be fired or suspended when they kneel during the national anthem.
  • A poll conducted earlier this week that surveyed about 600 Americans shows 61 percent of respondents saying players should not be fired.
  • Republican respondents sided with the president by a 47-39 margin.
Terrance Smith #48, Eric Fisher #72, Demetrius Harris #84, and Cameron Erving #75 of the Kansas City Chiefs is seen taking a knee before the game against the Los Angeles Chargers at the StubHub Center on September 24, 2017 in Carson, California.

Should NFL owners fire players who sit or kneel in protest during the national anthem? 
 Americans by a two-to-one margin say NFL players should not be fired or suspended when they kneel during the national anthem, according to the third-quarter CNBC All-American Economic Survey.

The results show President Donald Trump, who called publicly for the firing or suspending of such players, at odds with a strong majority of the public. “This was a ridiculous and totally unhelpful thing for him to do. Absolutely no upside,” said Jay Campbell, pollster with Hart-McInturff and the Democratic half of the CNBC polling team

Micah Roberts of Public Opinion Strategies, who serves as the Republican pollster, noted that half of Trump’s own supporters disagree with his stance.

The poll was conducted earlier this week during two of the three days the poll was in the field. It includes responses from about 600 people across the country and has a margin of error of 4 percent. The full poll, which includes responses from 800 individuals, has a margin of error of 3.5 percent and will be released Monday.

The poll found 61 percent saying the players should not be fired, 27 percent saying they should be, and 12 percent unsure. Strong support for the players came from Democrats and Independents. Republicans sided with the president by only a 47 to 39 margin, or substantially below their overall level of support for the president.

Respondents in the Northeast and the South equally backed the players at around the national average of 60 percent. But support among those with incomes greater than $75,000 was twice as high as among those with incomes from $30,000 to $50,000. And net support (the percent supporting the players minus opposition) was 60 percent among non-whites but just 23 percent among whites.

13 Houston Superfund sites remain flooded after Hurricane Harvey

Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images

When Hurricane Harvey landed in Houston last week, a major concern was the damage that the city’s petrochemical industry could sustain from the storm. The Environmental Protection Agency has confirmed that 13 of the 41 sites in the area remain flooded, while a report from the Associated Press says that the agency has yet to physically inspect most of the polluted areas. Following the storm, numerous chemical plants in and around the city experienced damage and in some cases, explosions as a result of the flooding. But Superfund sites — heavily polluted areas that require long-term cleanup — are of particular concern. Prior to the storm, workers “took steps to secure state sites in the projected path of Hurricane Harvey,” while the EPA worked with local stakeholders to secure federal sites. It’s not clear what damage the floodwaters are doing to the site that remain under water. AP reporters surveyed seven Superfund sites and found that each had been “inundated with water, in some cases many feet deep.” The report lists several sites that experienced flooding, and that it’s unclear if they sustained damage due to the flooding. In several cases, protective measures have been installed to contain pollutants. The AP also says that specific threats will vary from site to site, depending on what they contain, and the EPA notes that there is a risk that contaminants could be carried away by floodwaters. The report also says that representatives from the EPA have not been able to physically evaluate most of the sites since the storm left the area. The agency has since blasted the AP’s story. EPA Associate Administrator Liz Bowman called it misleading and inaccurate, and said that 28 sites “show no damage.” The EPA’s statement goes on to say that the agency has inspected two of two of the 13 sites, finding that they don’t require “immediate attention. However, the remaining 11 sites are “inaccessible for response teams,” but the agency has been in touch with local officials who are responsible for “regular cleanup activities.”

What’s next for industrial metals after a third-quarter rally?

Analysts split on the outlook for industrial metals

 

AFP/Getty Images The outlook for industrial metals will depend on China, the world’s biggest metals consumer.

Tight supplies lifted prices for industrial metals in the third quarter, with zinc, aluminum and copper boasting the biggest gains, but analysts were split on where the sector is headed in the final three months of the year. For the third quarter as of Thursday, the S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index, which reflects investment in aluminum, copper, zinc and nickel and is a subindex of the S&P GSCI SPGSCI, -0.22% tacked on 10.5%. It had posted five-consecutive quarterly gains before suffering a 0.7% decline in the second quarter.  “Industrial metals are sensitive to Chinese GDP growth, inflation and the U.S. dollar,” said Jodie Gunzberg, global head of commodities and real assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “All of these macro factors were tailwinds for the industrial metals” in the latest quarter.

 

Industrial metals were among the third-quarter winners.

 

Zinc, nickel, aluminum, copper and lead all saw notable gains in the last three months. Aluminum futures on Comex, based on the most-active contracts, climbed by roughly 10% for the quarter, according to FactSet data. Copper futures HGZ7, -1.12%  more than 9% and zinc added around 14%. “Copper prices hit a three-year high in September as its ongoing supply deficit for the past seven years is expected to persist through 2018,” said Maxwell Gold, director of investment strategy at ETF Securities. “Aluminum reached a five-year high this quarter as strong drawdowns in LME warehouses and continued crackdowns on illegal smelting in China boosted prices.” Meanwhile, “demand for zinc, copper and nickel is expected to be higher than supply.” He said. “These metals have gone through back-to-back years of supply deficits.”

 

Bullish oil streak means strongest 3rd qtr Brent price gain in 13 years

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil prices closed up on Friday after a rally in prices on geopolitical instability in Iraqi Kurdistan helped Brent make its strongest third-quarter price performance since 2004. Global benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 closed up 13 cents or 0.2 percent to $57.54 a barrel, notching up a third-quarter gain of around 20 percent. On the week, Brent was up 1.2 percent. The contract reached its highest in more than two years earlier in the week, resulting in a fifth consecutive weekly gain. This was Brent’s longest weekly bull run since June 2016. U.S. crude CLc1 closed up 11 cents to settle at $51.67 a barrel, its strongest third quarter in 10 years and longest streak of weekly gains since January. U.S. crude was up around 2 percent on the week. “The bigger concern for oil is the Kurdish region,” said Matt Smith, director of Commodity Research at ClipperData. “Today we’re seeing international flights banned, the trucking of fuels being banned from Iran.” Iraq’s Kurds endorsed secession by nine to one in a referendum on Monday that has angered Turkey, the central government in Baghdad and other powers, which fear the vote could lead to renewed conflict in the oil-rich region. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan called the vote illegitimate and has threatened to break with past practice and deal only with the Baghdad government over oil exports from Iraq. Oil price gains have also been supported by anticipated demand from U.S. refiners resuming operations after shutdowns due to Hurricane Harvey.

But oil output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has risen this month by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd), a Reuters survey found, as Iraqi exports increased and production edged higher in Libya, one of the producers exempt from a supply-cutting deal.

Middle Eastern oil producers are concerned the recent price rise will incentivize U.S. shale production and push prices lower again. U.S. energy companies added oil rigs for the first week in seven after a 14-month drilling recovery stalled in August, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday. Drillers added six oil rigs in the week to Sept. 29, bringing the total count up to 750. Nick Note: This rally is doomed!