Crude Oil Analysis: Risks Tilted to Upside, Iran Plans to Break Nuclear Deal Limit

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Brent Crude Price: Daily Time Frame (Sep 2018 – Jun 20

Rising geopolitical risks stemming from tensions between the US and Iran keep momentum tilted to the upside for the oil complex. Secretary of State Pompeo highlighted that significant sanctions would be announced for Iran, thus tensions between the two nations will remain high, as such, a further escalation raises the risk of oil price spikes going forward. Iran Planning to Break Nuclear Deal Limit On June 27th, Iran plans to breach the limit on its stockpile of enriched uranium set by the nuclear deal, which in turn should see the rising geopolitical risk premium keep oil prices buoyed. Elsewhere, despite US sanctions impacting the production in both Iran and Venezuela, the fragile nature of the oil given the concerns of a global slowdown should see OPEC rollout the production cuts throughout the rest of the year.