(Bloomberg) — Here is a list of countries that could boost crude production to offset losses from Saudi Arabia in the event that the disruption to supplies from the attacks on its Abqaiq and Khurais processing facilities lasts longer than initially expected. It’s not a long list and much may not be accessible. The attacks cut Saudi production by 5.7 million barrels a day and officials at state oil company Saudi Aramco have become less optimistic on the pace of output recovery. The maximum spare capacity that could be brought into production in the coming weeks is estimated at about 3.9 million barrels a day. That figure should be treated as a exercise in optimism, though. It includes restarting production from the Neutral Zone shared by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, as well as tapping Saudi Arabia’s own spare capacity, much of which may also have to be processed at the Abqaiq or Khurais facilities and therefore be unusable.
August production: 9.83 million barrels a day
Production capacity: 11.5 million barrels a day
Usable spare capacity: up to 1.67 million barrels a day
On paper, Saudi Arabia has about 1.7 million barrels a day of spare production capacity, but the precise location of that reserve is unclear. If it is in the giant Ghawar, Shaybah or Khurais fields, it’s unlikely to be of any use, as crude from those fields is processed at Abqaiq.
There is some spare capacity at offshore fields, such as Manifa and Safaniyah. Offshore crude is not processed at Abqaiq, so these fields could be pressed into service.
United Arab Emirates
August production: 3.07 million barrels a day
Production capacity: 3.4 million barrels a day
Usable spare capacity: 200,000 to 330,000 barrels a day
U.A.E. output peaked at 3.27 million barrels a day in November 2018 and levels beyond that have not been tested on an on-going basis. This suggests the country could boost output by somewhere between 200,000 and 330,000 barrels a day.
August production: 2.68 million barrels a day
Production capacity: 3.15 million barrels a day
Usable spare capacity: 470,000 barrels a day
Kuwait’s reported crude production capacity is 3.15 million barrels a day, excluding its share of the Neutral Zone that it shares with Saudi Arabia, but it has not produced more than 3 million since the 1970s. Current production of 2.68 million barrels a day suggests it could increase output by at most 470,000 barrels.
August production: Zero
Production capacity: 500,000 barrels a day
Usable spare capacity: 500,000 barrels a day
Shared by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, the Khafji and Wafra fields in the Neutral Zone have been shut since 2015 as a result of a dispute between the two countries. They have the capacity to pump as much as 500,0000 barrels a day of heavy oil. Khafji is a northern extension of Saudi Arabia’s Safaniyah field.
Restarting production in the Neutral Zone cannot be done overnight, though. Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said in Dubai last week that issues on the Neutral Zone are mostly technical and that he expects to have a “clear picture” on them within the next couple of months.
August production: 11.29 million barrels a day
Production capacity: 11.45 million barrels a day
Usable spare capacity: 160,000 barrels a day
Russia has been cutting oil production as part of the OPEC+ deal. Output reached a peak of 11.45 million barrels a day in December, before the latest cuts came into effect in January. The country’s oil companies can certainly restore output to that level and may be able to go beyond it. Winter often sees an increase in Russian oil production, as increased domestic natural gas use results in a boost to flows of condensate, a light form of crude pumped from gas fields, although this is not a good substitute for most Saudi export grades.
August production: 1.85 million barrels a day
Production capacity: 2 million barrels a day
Usable spare capacity: 150,000 barrels a day
Although Kazakhstan is a member of the OPEC+ group, its only supply reduction this year has been the result of planned maintenance at its largest oil fields. August oil production was restricted by maintenance at the country’s largest field, Tengiz, where works were completed in early September. Planned maintenance is now underway at the Karachaganak field until mid-October, which has taken output back down to the average August level. Kazakhstan will not be able to boost crude production until that work is completed.