Posted on

Global Refiners Have Little Spare Capacity Left

The global refining system has little spare room left to respond.

S&P Global Energy  Global Head of Fuels and Refining Research at S&P Global Energy, said in analysis piece by the S&P Global Energy Fuels and Refining team. “Outside constrained markets such as Russia, the Middle East, and China, much of the remaining global refining complex is already running at or near multidecade highs,” he added. “The issue is a lack of available capacity,” Evans went on to state. The analysis piece stated that, in the span of a few weeks, the global outlook for refined products has whipsawed dramatically. According to the analysis, what looked like the start of a gradual normalization in product markets instead became the opening act of another supply squeeze. S&P Global Energy revealed in the analysis that it now estimates that global refinery runs were 7.5 million barrels per day lower in July than year-ago levels. It added that global runs are now expected to average 80.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2026, which it highlighted is 2.4 million barrels per day lower than its previous refined products outlook. Refined product exports from key suppliers are down 30 percent, or four million barrels per day, since the start of the conflict relative to the same period in 2025, the analysis highlighted, adding that prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are near $130-$170 per barrel, which it pointed out is comparable to the peaks experienced in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the Middle East, regional crude runs are expected to average about eight million barrels per day in 2026, according to the analysis, which highlighted that this is roughly 1.6 million barrels per day below 2025 levels, “due to a large share of that capacity that remains either physically impaired, logistically stranded, or operationally unable to restart with confidence”. The analysis also stated that Russia’s diesel exports ban has removed 10 percent of waterborne supply from the market and S&P Global Energy warned that, “at the same time, hopes for a durable easing of China’s refined product export controls were dashed following the renewed Strait of Hormuz disruption”. “Crude runs remained subdued in July, with throughput almost 2.9 million barrels per day below year-ago levels,” it added. S&P’s analysis went on to state that U.S. refiners, which it pointed out are currently

running at record levels at 96 percent capacity utilization, “are the keystone holding global product markets together at the moment”. It warned, however, that the approaching hurricane and traditional fall maintenance seasons “underscore just how thin the remaining buffers are”.

“Product markets still have a head start on a broader availability crisis,” the analysis piece said. “However, with few remaining sources of incremental supply capable of responding to disruptions, the margin of error is rapidly decreasing,” it added.

Kpler team In a commodities market update  stated that global refining had become “the real supply constraint”. “Refining, not crude, is the binding constraint,” the company said in that update. “U.S. utilization holds ~95 percent and European runs are at multi-year seasonal highs,” it highlighted, noting that Russian throughput was “at a two-decade low after drone strikes” and that “the former product exporter now imports to balance domestic fuel markets”. “China [is] capped by export quotas, the Middle East by shipping disruption; global runs [are] near the weakest seasonal levels in years,” it warned in that update. Kpler outlined in its update that global offline refinery capacity stood at around 11 million barrels per day near the end of July. It projected that this capacity would drop to around 10 million barrels per day in August before rising to around 12 million barrels per day in October and eventually dropping to around seven million barrels per day in December

NN: Its going to be a long cold expensive winter!
Posted on

Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Stopped as-Iran Standoff Drags On

Tankers moving along the Strait of Hormuz dwindled further this week, with only five crossings on Wednesday and nine crossings on Thursday, down from a monthly average of 12 crossings, according to data from Kpler, as cited by Reuters. Five tankers went into the waterway yesterday, according to the data, and four exited it, most of them moving along the Iranian corridor. Traffic via the Bab el-Mandeb strait in the Red Sea was in the double digits, with Kpler reporting 19 commodity carriers passing the waterway on Thursday. The data only covers vessels with their transponders switched on, Reuters noted in its report. Meanwhile, the United States threatened to extend its naval blockade of Iran indefinitely, and add more sanctions to an already long list to choke Iran’s economy. “Indefinitely, the United States Navy can maintain a blockade like that because we’ll rotate ships in and out, as we have, and we’ll continue to,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told media, as quoted by Reuters. “Watch this space for more announcements coming next week because we are going to apply measures like have never been seen in the history of economic isolation on a country,” Hegseth also said on Thursday. These statements suggest the conflict is nowhere near a resolution, yet oil prices did not reflect that, with traders instead focusing on the news that U.S. commercial inventories had added over 17.4 million barrels last week.

However, global inventories are depleting, including those from the massive releases from the strategic stockpile, while China, which has kept oil futures prices in check with a decade-low import level in May and June, is now back to buying more crude.

If the stalemate over the U.S.-Iran talks and the Strait of Hormuz control persists for a few more weeks, the physical oil market could reach the much-feared tipping point, beyond which shortages would be felt, and prices would spike, analysts say.

NN: i again repeat my urgent warning:

THE WORLD IS RUNNING OUT OF OIL

Posted on

WTI jumps 2% on renewed Middle East tensions

Crude oil prices rose 2% on Friday, as traders monitored the latest developments around the conflict in the Middle East, fearful of the risk of further escalation. United States Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated yesterday that the US is capable of holding a naval blockade of Iranian ports “indefinitely,” while US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent shared earlier that Washington will announce new measures against Tehran next week. In addition, Iran insisted yesterday that no vessel could cross the Strait of Hormuz without Tehran’s permission. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for deliveries in September jumped 2.01% to go for $82.88 per barrel at 3:15 am ET. A minute later, Brent for settlements in October rose by 1.67%, selling for $88.52 per barrel.

Posted on

Iran: No ship can transit Hormuz without approval…..Iran claims it manages Hormuz, counters Trump

No commercial ship can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz without Iran’s permission and supervision, an Iranian Armed Forces spokesperson reiterated on Thursday. He dismissed the United States’ claims of control over Hormuz as proof of the “desperation and helplessness” of its military. The spokesperson said the Iranian military continues to monitor the movements of the US and Israel in the region, threatening that it will “respond to any threat, of any kind and at any level, with a more crushing and severe response than before.”

Hossein Taeb, head of the paramilitary Basij forces affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, stated on Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz is “under Iran’s ‌control and management,” a day after US President Donald Trump claimed that the United States had “total control” of the vital waterway. “Today, you see that the Strait of Hormuz is under the management and control of the Islamic Republic, and our country continues on its path in complete security,” the newly appointed leader of Iran’s Basij paramilitary group added, according to state television. Taeb went on to say that the US had launched another war in the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to undermine what he called the Islamic Republic’s “popularity” in the area but had once again been defeated despite alleging Iran had neither an air force nor a navy.

NN:  Trump is the best of the worst. But he is the best of the worst! Do not not get sucked by the Bullshit! Pure and simple oil is running out.
Posted on

Tanker Data Contradicts U.S. Claim That Middle East Oil Flows Have Normalized

Oil flows from the Middle East have normalized, with Sunday traffic alone above pre-conflict averages, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said on Tuesday in a claim that appears not to be backed by ship-tracking data. On Tuesday, Secretary Wright posted on X that “Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day.” He went on to add that “When combined with the additional 5-7 million barrels per day leaving the region via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, total oil flows are currently averaging approximately 15 million barrels per day.” According to the top U.S. energy official, “On Sunday alone, over 20 million barrels left the Arabian gulf region, which is above the pre-conflict average.”

However, analysts and tanker traffic monitoring services cannot fathom how the U.S. Administration has arrived at these numbers, considering that traffic at the Strait of Hormuz is severely constrained, even according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

“We have increased our estimates of Middle East shut-in crude oil production in the coming months compared with our July forecast due to continued severe constraints on Strait of Hormuz transits, which we assume persist through August,” the EIA said on Tuesday in its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). “It is not possible to reconcile the disparity between what we see and what he is quoting,” Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, told CNN, commenting on Wright’s claim. Kpler data showed earlier this week that vessel traffic at the Strait of Hormuz continues to decline as last week’s hopes of negotiations of a U.S.-Iran deal began to fade, yet again.   On Monday, only six commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in either direction, down from 11 ships in the latest 10-day average, according to shipping data from Kpler cited by Reuters on Tuesday.

NN:  The oil is NOT getting through the Straights. I do not care how many press conferences they give you with blond bombshells spokespersons with big salt water bag tities. THE WORLD IS RUNNING OUT OF OIL!

 

Posted on

US, Iran said to agree ceasefire extension

The United States and Iran have agreed to extend the bilateral ceasefire, Turkey’s Anadolu news agency reported on Wednesday, citing Pakistani government officials. The alleged deal comes as the 60-day ceasefire in the memorandum of understanding, signed on June 17, is set to expire next week. Pakistan has remained involved as a mediator throughout the negotiation process, even as the US and Iran repeatedly restarted exchanging airstrikes. However, any new ceasefire agreement is likely to be unstable as both sides continue to claim control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for international oil shipping.

NN: So the oil in not flowing! What the hell did they acomplish?
Posted on

Iran insists Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until US agrees to demands Read more at: https://www.iran insists strait of Hurmuz will stay closed until us agrees to demands

Iran said Monday that any deal with Oman on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would not lead to the waterway being fully reopened and that the route would remain closed until the United States agreed to demands including lifting a naval blockade. The comments were the latest sign that Iran sees its grip on the strait — which has driven up global energy prices, creating a political headache for President Donald Trump — as its best form of leverage in negotiations with Washington. Esmail Bagha spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, said at a news conference Monday that the focus of the talks with Oman was “on reaching an understanding over a route for the safe passage of shipping,” Iranian state media reported. A top Iranian national security official issued a set of demands that are part of Iran’s long-standing public negotiating stance and that he said the United States must meet before Iran would fully reopen the waterway. Those included the Those included the lifting of the US naval blockade and sanctions on Iran, the withdrawal of US forces from around the country, the payment of war reparations, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and the end of attacks on Iran’s allies in the region.

NN:  I was told the US controls the Straits.  But the truth is the US is out of balls, brains and bullets. And Iran is the last man standing. 
Posted on

Gulf shipping traffic via Strait of Hormuz falls to six vessels

NEW DELHI, Aug 11 (Reuters) – Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to six on Monday, compared ​with a 10-day average of about 11 vessels, ‌shipping data showed, amid fading hopes of a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran.
Four commodity vessels, including two empty ​oil product tankers, entered the waterway, data ​from Kpler showed on Tuesday as of 0420 ⁠GMT. Two vessels — a small tanker laden with ​liquefied petroleum gas and another carrying residual fuels — exited ​the Strait, the data showed. In pre-war days, about 130 to 140 ships typically transited the strait.
On Monday, 25 vessels transited the Bab ​el-Mandeb strait on the Red Sea, broadly unchanged ​when compared with the 10-day average of nearly 24 ships, ‌Kpler ⁠data showed.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday responded to Iran’s conditions for a peace deal by laying out his own demands that Iran pay compensation for people ​killed in wars, ​attacks and ⁠protests. The proposal was a response to Tehran’s demands for compensation and an end ​to sanctions. The Iranian demands were largely ​in ⁠line with the terms of a preliminary peace deal signed in June, which has since broken down. Since the ⁠war ​began in February, Trump has ​repeatedly swung between threats of escalation and assertions that a peace deal ​is close.
NN: Keep your eye on the money ball. Is oil coming to market in sufficient quantities to meet demand?
Posted on

Trump Hardens Stance on Iran, Clouding Hopes for Hormuz Deal

US President Donald Trump hardened his stance toward Iran as negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz continue, pronouncing that the Islamic Republic must pay reparations for past attacks. Trump made his sweeping new demands on Monday after accusing Tehran of itself seeking compensation for war damages through public statements even though the issue had never been raised in negotiations. “I am likewise demanding compensation from Iran, for all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts,” Trump wrote on social media. “Additionally, compensation should be paid to the families of the hundreds of thousands of innocent protestors that Iran has killed over the last 50 years.”

President Donald Trump says he’s ready to let economic pressure build on Iran. Josh Wingrove reports. The latest twist puts the two countries on a new collision course. The demands, which Trump said will be included “firmly into any, and all, future negotiations,” are almost certain to be rejected by Iran, which is seeking reparations for damage inflicted during the US-Israeli war that began Feb. 28.

Shortly after his post, Trump added that Iran should also be held responsible for deaths and damage from conflicts in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Gaza, where Tehran-backed militant groups operate.

The hardening positions on both sides makes it unlikely that Washington or Tehran will be able to agree to any immediate pact on Hormuz, where around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the conflict began.

 Oil held a four-day rally as Trump’s comments clouded the outlook for a deal, with global benchmark Brent trading 0.2% higher at $87.87 per barrel at 06:39 a.m. in London, after advancing 5% in the previous session. European diesel futures surged more than 10% as refineries in Saudi Arabia, Libya and Russia also came under attack, further tightening the market for the fuel considered the workhorse of the global economy. Trump and other US officials had recently boosted market optimism by suggesting a deal with Tehran was getting closer, with Iran and Oman in discussions to reopen the waterway to maritime shipping. The US president earlier signaled that he was prepared to let economic pressure on Iran build rather than launch fresh military strikes to force a reopening of Hormuz. That marked a shift from his repeated threats to escalate the bombing campaign against Iran, following several weeks of tit-for-tat strikes and the breakdown of an interim peace deal the countries signed in June. The Islamic Republic’s economy has taken a hammering from the war, with much of its industrial capacity destroyed, crude exports severely curtailed by a US blockade and central bank data showing year-on-year inflation recently reaching 77%. The currency, meanwhile, has fallen more than 10% from its prewar level, adding to the economic pressure on Iranians. A depreciation of the rial sparked violent nationwide protests that peaked early this year, leading to a crackdown by authorities that left thousands dead. There have been no signs of the anti-government demonstrations resuming. Tehran’s demands for a full reopening of Hormuz include the US lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports, the release of frozen assets and compensation for war damages. It has also called for a permanent end to attacks on groups it backs in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Gaza. The effective closure of Hormuz is taking a toll on the global economy and trade. The cost of hiring a supertanker to carry oil on the benchmark Middle East-to-China route approached $500,000 a day, more than twice the cost before the war. While Trump insisted that compensation for Iran “was never mentioned in any of our negotiations or meetings,” the 14-point memorandum of understanding that Iran and the US agreed to in June details plans for Washington and regional partners to develop a $300 billion fund for the “rehabilitation and economic development” of Iran after the war.

Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday that Hormuz was “open now” and controlled by the US. Asked about military escalation, Trump said the US retained that ability and “if we want to do that, yeah, you’ll find out.”

The Washington Post reported Monday that Trump was secretly flown out of Turkey last month on an alternate military aircraft instead of Air Force One, after the president ordered military strikes on Iran while at a NATO summit. The covert plan, prompted by an Iranian assassination threat, included briefly transporting the president in an airport catering truck from one plane to the next, the Post reported.

NN: Not only are the straights NOT NOT NOT NOT opened. But the president is hiding  from Iran. Oh did i mention oil reserves are about to be all used up!
Posted on

Trump on Iran: We still have ability to escalate…… Trump says ‘only’ US controls Hormuz Strait

United States President Donald Trump stated on Monday that “we certainly have the ability” for a massive escalation against Iran. Trump made the comment while speaking to journalists at the White House. One reporter asked what would happen if Tehran does not take what Trump said was the last chance for peace. “You’ll find out,” he answered. Trump repeated his earlier claims that it is Iran that should be paying the damages to “many thousands” of people murdered and killed since 1979, and over 50 thousand protesters who were allegedly killed earlier this year.

Trump says ‘only’ US controls Hormuz Strait

United States President Donald Trump stated on Monday that Washington is the only power controlling the crucial Strait of Hormuz, claiming that the entire waterway has been “mineswept.” “We have a blockade that has been infallible; it’s a steel wall. And we let people in that we want in … and they have been coming in and going out. It’s actually open now,” the president said, referring to the strategic waterway. “We do not let them go into Iran,” Trump stressed. Speaking at a White House briefing, the president accused Iran of acting as a “bully” across the Middle East, claiming Tehran had killed “hundreds of thousands of people” and warning that it was now “paying the price.”

NN: I have a question. If the US controls the straights as Trump claims and if the US wants  freedom of navigation for the free flow of oil which is a stated goal. How come their is now oil flowing out of the straight?  So here is my next question. Who is bullshitting who as $70 oil is now approaching $90. Looks like you may be getting a big pay day if you follow my trade reco’s