United States President Donald Trump confirmed on Tuesday that Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Special Envoy for Peace Missions Jared Kushner met earlier in the day with mediators regarding an agreement with Iran.”The mediators were here, not at the highest level, but it’s something. We had a lot of good thoughts, and a lot of things are working out very well,” Trump shared at a Shield of the Americas event.
More to come…
Oil futures rose more than 1% on Tuesday as concerns over escalating tensions between the US and Iran added to geopolitical risk premiums. Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that all Iranian airlines will be “shut down” starting Wednesday, with the measures including a ban on airports, fuel suppliers, ticketing agencies, and other service providers offering them services. Investors are nevertheless watching for signs of a diplomatic solution to the conflict as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to travel to New York for the United Nations General Assembly. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for October’s deliveries increased by 1.14% at 1:56 am ET to $96.87 per barrel. Brent for November’s shipments jumped by 1.31% to $101.65 per barrel
Oil futures rose more than 1% on Tuesday as concerns over escalating tensions between the US and Iran added to geopolitical risk premiums.
Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that all Iranian airlines will be “shut down” starting Wednesday, with the measures including a ban on airports, fuel suppliers, ticketing agencies, and other service providers offering them services. Investors are nevertheless watching for signs of a diplomatic solution to the conflict as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to travel to New York for the United Nations General Assembly. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for October’s deliveries increased by 1.14% at 1:56 am ET to $96.87 per barrel. Brent for November’s shipments jumped by 1.31% to $101.65 per barrel
Oil futures rose more than 1% on Tuesday as concerns over escalating tensions between the US and Iran added to geopolitical risk premiums. Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that all Iranian airlines will be “shut down” starting Wednesday, with the measures including a ban on airports, fuel suppliers, ticketing agencies, and other service providers offering them services. Investors are nevertheless watching for signs of a diplomatic solution to the conflict as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to travel to New York for the United Nations General Assembly. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for October’s deliveries increased by 1.14% at 1:56 am ET to $96.87 per barrel. Brent for November’s shipments jumped by 1.31% to $101.65 per barrel
The Moscow Oil Refinery was hit during drone attacks that were part of the largest overnight Ukrainian barrage this year, as Russia entered the final day of voting in its parliamentary elections. Russia’s Defense Ministry said it downed 1,110 Ukrainian drones across 19 regions of Russia as well as in Crimea, which the Kremlin annexed in 2014. That’s the largest overnight total reported so far this year, eclipsing the previous high of 822 in August. The ministry said its air defenses brought down eight Ukrainian Flamingo missiles and 1,951 drones over the past day, the Interfax news service reported. Several drones struck the territory of the Moscow refinery, damaging a facility at the site, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said, without elaborating. Nobody was hurt and emergency services were working at the scene, he said in a post on Telegram. Oil producer Gazprom Neft PJSC owns the refinery, located about 25 kilometers (16 miles) from the Kremlin. It has a processing capacity of about 245,000 barrels a day and is one of the key fuel suppliers for the capital region.
The refinery’s AVT-6 primary crude oil distillation unit, the integrated crude oil processing unit and the isomerization unit were hit during the attack, and large fires were recorded at the facility, the Ukrainian General Staff said in a post on Facebook. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that a Pelican ballistic missile was involved in the attacks, the first publicly confirmed combat use of the system. Its manufacturer Fire Point puts the missile’s range at only 200 kilometers on its website, though, and it was unclear from Zelenskyy’s post what part it played and where.The strikes on the Moscow area, including on the refinery and a logistics center, had “very significant impact,” Zelenskyy said on X. The attacks took place as Russia holds the third and final day of voting in its first parliamentary elections since President Vladimir Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Sobyanin said 152 drones targeted Moscow overnight in what he called an “unprecedented” assault involving more than 1,600 unmanned aerial vehicles over the past day aimed at the capital. Most were downed by air defenses, he said. The attack “was clearly planned with the aim of disrupting the elections,” Sobyanin said. Turnout had reached 47.95% shortly before noon in Moscow on Sunday, state-run Tass news service reported, citing Russia’s central election commission
. The refinery strike was the latest indication that neither Ukraine nor Russia has signed up to an energy truce that US President Donald Trump claimed on Sept. 14 had been agreed with the warring sides as global diesel prices surge.
The Moscow refinery was previously damaged in June during a record drone attack on the capital, sending plumes of black smoke across the region and contributing to fuel shortages in Russia. While Moscow is protected by some of Russia’s most advanced air-defense systems, recent large-scale drone attacks have exposed the limits of even layered defenses. Most are intercepted, though some still manage to strike targets. Ukraine’s Air Forces said Russia carried out attacks overnight with 138 drones, half of them jet-powered. Air defenses destroyed 101 drones, it said Sunday in a Telegram post. The Russian Defense Ministry said on Telegram that it struck a warehouse outside Kyiv storing components for drones made by Fire Point, as well as a Nova Poshta logistics center near the Black Sea port of Odesa, and a cargo ship used to deliver military goods.
United States President Donald Trump decided not to go ahead with the plan to launch large-scale strikes against Yemeni Houthis for now, after being cautioned by allies that it would risk opening another front in the Middle East, the New York Times reported. According to the report, Trump (TACO) vacillated between ordering the strikes and avoiding confrontation for the past few weeks, as Houthis made rapid advances against Saudi-backed forces, gained full control over the Bab el-Mandeb strait, and launched missile strikes on the kingdom’s oil infrastructure. Moreover, Trump is alleged to have received a direct phone call from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Thursday, asking him to intervene in the conflict. However, the US leader had told his aides the day before that he did not favor strikes, but then changed his mind and instructed the Pentagon to prepare for military action. Another turn of events came on Sunday when Trump reversed his decision and called off the airstrikes at the last moment.
The White House declined to comment.
Crude oil prices fell on Monday as traders monitored the potential recovery of Saudi oil shipments following missile and drone attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces on Saturday. JPMorgan analysts said in a September 18 note that Middle East oil flows remained “surprisingly strong” despite disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, while US Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper said oil and liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks had reached their highest level in six months, seemingly shaking supply fears off. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for October’s settlements slumped by 2.05% at 12:55 am ET to $98.24 per barrel. Simultaneously, Brent for November’s deliveries decreased by 2.04% to $101.75 per barrel.
The Iranian Armed Forces’ Central Command stated that it received information about the United States planning to resume its “actions” against Iran, and warned that Tehran will retaliate, Iran’s state media outlet IRIB News reported on Sunday. “We warn that if the US commits any act of aggression against the Islamic Republic of Iran, all of its bases and interests in the region will be subjected to sustained, effective and painful attacks, without any restrictions or consideration,” the Iranian military said, claiming that the US received a “green light” for its plans from the countries in the region at a joint meeting in a European country. The military’s Central Command also warned regional countries that if they “continue their dual policy” towards Iran, they will be considered “complicit” and should not expect “restraint or decency” from Iran’s Armed Forces.
US strategic B-1 bombers have taken off from their bases in the United Kingdom after midnight on Sunday, local time, as tensions in the Middle East rose again amid the Saudi Arabia-Houthi conflict and the standoff with Iran. According to footage that surfaced online, the bombers were spotted departing the runway at RAF Fairford in southern England, but their destination remained unknown. Earlier, the US State Department issued alerts for multiple countries across the Middle East, warning of a potential escalation of hostilities involving Houthis and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump appeared to cut short his stay at Camp David and headed back to Washington DC.
NN: Something is up. See Trade Reco calm Before the storm
United States President Donald Trump signed into law the Russian sanctions bill sponsored by late Senator from South Carolina Lindsay Graham. The legislation allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the five largest buyers of Russian oil, with China and India poised to feel the biggest impact, as both nations continue to import large quantities of crude oil from Moscow. Additionally, the bill further tightens sanctions on Iran’s energy and weapons industries. Graham, who died suddenly in July shortly after his trip to Ukraine, had been one of the most vocal proponents of increasing sanctions pressure on Russia, seeking to coerce Moscow into ending the long-standing conflict.
French President Emmanuel Macron is calling the G7 back to the table to discuss another release of emergency oil stocks as
Europe loses Saudi crude deliveries and diesel prices push deeper into record territory.
Macron said Friday that he will convene G7 countries in the coming weeks to coordinate stock levels, exports and production capacity and consider tapping strategic reserves. France is also working to secure diesel, jet fuel and natural gas supplies for the coming months.
Europe’s diesel benchmark rose to more than $200 per barrel this week, with taxes pushing retail-equivalent costs above $300.
Russia has extended restrictions on diesel exports, and Middle Eastern product exports are still constrained. Saudi Arabia added another problem Friday when Aramco told at least two European refiners they will receive no crude under term contracts in October following the attack on its East-West pipeline. The company is trying to restore partial pipeline capacity within days, with full recovery reportedly taking about six weeks. Aramco has found another route for roughly 60 million barrels through the Persian Gulf and ship-to-ship transfers near Oman. Most of those barrels are headed to Asian refiners. Europe is buying replacement crude from the North Sea and elsewhere instead.
The G7 has already burned through a lot of ammunition. IEA members have released more than 300 million barrels of emergency stocks since March. Global observed inventories are still 507 million barrels lower than when the war began, after drawing at an average 2.8 million bpd over the past six months.
Another stock release could put physical barrels—and importantly, finished fuel—into Europe quickly. It cannot repair Saudi Arabia’s pipeline, restart Russian refineries or reopen Hormuz.
A tanker reported an attempted interception by a skiff about 75 nautical miles east of Aden, Yemen, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said Thursday. According to UKMTO, the skiff pursued the vessel and attempted to intercept it. Authorities are investigating the incident. Furthermore, the agency has advised ships operating in the area to remain “cautious” and report “suspicious activity.”
An explosion occurred in the Strait of Hormuz, Sabereen News, affiliated with Iran-backed militia networks, reported on Thursday. According to the media outlet, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy fired missiles toward a vessel that allegedly violated its instructions related to passage through the waterway. Meanwhile, the United States blockade of Iranian ports and ships continued, with over 100 ships redirected so far.