Military preparations and the approaching midterms raise the risk of escalation and a severe oil supply shock.

The warning signs that Trump is preparing for the final battle with Iran deserve attention.

My assessment is that President Trump is positioning the United States for a major escalation against Iran. The additional naval forces, reinforced defenses around Gulf energy facilities, and increasingly explicit threats give Washington more options for renewed attacks—and protection against the retaliation those attacks could provoke. A final decision has been made. It establishes that the military preparations are consistent with the coming attack. And the Trump final solution will become reality. The Associated Press reports that the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and additional ships carrying 10,000 sailors and Marines are heading toward the Middle East. Their arrival could expand the naval force available to Trump as he plans renewed strikes. Deployment, however, does not itself prove an order to attack: military movements can also support deterrence, negotiations, and force rotations.

The defensive preparations are especially revealing. Axios reports that the United States has sent additional Patriot batteries to Saudi Arabia and Qatar to protect important oil and natural-gas facilities. The reported purpose is to reassure those allies that their energy infrastructure will be defended if major operations against Iran resume. My interpretation is that Washington is preparing for the consequences of escalation as well as the opening strikes.

1.The election could change the calculation

The November midterms are congressional elections. Trump himself is not on the ballot, but his party’s control of the House and Senate is at stake. Before the election, an expanded war and higher fuel prices could hurt Republican candidates. Afterward, that immediate electoral constraint changes. AP reports that Trump has raised the possibility of renewed bombing after the midterms. That supports scrutiny of the timing; and it shows electoral considerations are part of his calculation for his military calculations.

If by some miracle the Republicans retain Congress, Trump could interpret the result as political encouragement. If they lose, he could decide to act aggressively despite the defeat. Since he has nothing to lose. That is my political assessment. It is NOT a overstatement to say he would have nothing to lose or that Congress could not constrain him. Congress retains funding and war-powers tools, although using them against a president can face substantial political and procedural obstacles. That trick has never stopped a US president from starting or fighting a foreign war.

I believe his legacy may also influence his calculation: preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon, while pursuing a more decisive defeat of the regime. Trump has previously spoken favorably about possible regime change. That supports considering the motive, without establishing a settled plan to overthrow the government.

2.Two alarming incidents—with responsibility unresolved

The Flydubai flight bound for Tel Aviv suffered a violent cockpit incident where a suicidal bomber attempted to take over the plane. Israels who are not passive people stopped him cold in his tracks and rescued the plane that was diverted to Saudi Arabia. Iranian involvement has not been officially established in the reporting reviewed for this report. But it is obvious that the terrorist was a radicalized suicide bomber using a aircraft 911 style as a weapon. Please note it is a obvious cover up by his Mohammad brothers. His name has not been released and the Saudis quietly in the noddle of the night released the co pilot to his home land Oman. I am sure the conclusion will be he was a lone wolf. Not true! He was a ISIS suicide bomber sent by Iran to kill Jews. Fly Dubi is in deep financial trouble. The war has slashed tourism and flight traffic by over half. 1 million Israeli passport holders fly with them each year. The last thinb they need to be revealed is that let a terrorist full of hatred for Jews to pilot one of their flights to Israel. Calling it a Iranian “9/11-style attack” is well supported by the evidence.

British authorities are also investigating suspected activity near RAF Fairford, used by American bombers. Reuters reports a further arrest of a British-Iranian dual national, while investigators examine possible foreign-state involvement. Iran denies responsibility. An arrest and a suspect’s nationality do not establish Iranian direction of a plot. If investigators establish Iranian responsibility in either case, the political pressure for retaliation could intensify.

3.The oil market is the pressure point

Iran does not need to defeat the American military to inflict serious economic damage. Threatening shipping and energy infrastructure has transmitted the conflict into soaring fuel prices worldwide.

Reuters reports that Iran is preparing for broader retaliation if large-scale attacks resume. Disruption of energy flows is one the only viable weapon Iran has left. It is regime in its death throws. Shutting down the Straights is its only remaining weapon.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024, roughly one-fifth of global petroleum-liquids consumption. Those are historical figures, todays traffic is les then 5 million barrels..

My forecast is a major escalation that removes substantial supplies for a sustained period could push oil to $150 a barrel. A prolonged, wider disruption in the Gulf states affecting shipping, refineries, pipelines and major export facilities could produce an extreme spike toward $200 or $250.

Those prices are my scenario estimates. The outcome would depend on lost volumes, duration, alternative routes, emergency inventories, replacement supplies, and falling demand as prices rise.

The central warning is this: the approaching election may change Trump’s incentives while the military buildup expands his options. If escalation follows, the consequences could reach far beyond Iran. The risk is substantial enough to take seriously. And if rght COULD make you millions on your lottery ticket trading!

Nick Guarino

Source references

AP: Carrier deployment
https://apnews.com/article/42c23e9af0333f4bc3b4f419cc3a603e

Axios: Patriot defenses
https://www.axios.com/2026/10/02/patriot-missiles-iran-war-saudi-arabia-qatar

AP: Trump and renewed bombing
https://apnews.com/article/af2443646cf96ff01b8b1becff3f3e0e

Reuters: Congressional war powers
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/congress-has-backed-iran-war-powers-resolutions-now-what-2026-06-09/

Reuters: Regime-change comments
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/second-us-aircraft-carrier-head-middle-east-amid-iran-tensions-us-media-reports-2026-02-13/

Sky News: Flydubai investigation
https://news.sky.com/story/flydubai-latest-flight-from-dubai-to-tel-aviv-lands-safely-in-saudi-arabia-after-brawl-between-pilots-13593603

Reuters: Fairford investigation
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-police-arrest-dual-uk-iranian-man-airbase-investigation-2026-10-01/

Reuters: Potential Iranian retaliation
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-readies-harder-retaliation-if-attacked-diplomacy-faces-long-odds-2026-10-01/

EIA: Historical Hormuz flows
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504

 

United States President Donald Trump told reporters on Thursday that Iran will either have to sign a “very fair” deal, or the country “won’t exist any longer,” adding that he has a decision to make and reiterating his comments from yesterday about potentially having to “blow them up.” The US president was also asked about Tehran’s potential involvement in the incident with the Flydubai passenger airplane that was forced to make an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia after a physical altercation between the pilots, to which he responded that Iran will be “hit very hard” if it is determined that it was behind the attack.

NN: Something big will happen in the next 3o days.

The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier is headed to the Middle East

The Pentagon is deploying an additional aircraft carrier and 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf, according to a US official, a move that gives American commanders more options if President Donald Trump chooses to escalate attacks on Iran.The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier left its San Diego home port on Sunday and is headed to the Middle East, the official said. When the Roosevelt arrives, the US could again have three carrier strike groups in the region, the same number as in late April, although a decision on maintaining that level hasn’t been made, the official added. The USS George Washington remains in the region but the George H.W. Bush has temporarily departed, according to the official. Before this year’s operations against Iran, the last time the US had three carrier strike groups in the Middle East was in 2003, when they supported the early phase of the invasion of Iraq. US Central Command, which oversees military operations in the Middle East, said in a statement that “we don’t discuss unit schedules for operational security reasons.”

Trump says US to win Iran war ‘maybe before’ election

United States President Donald Trump said Iran is ready to “fold” and that Washington may “win” the war before the midterm elections. “We’ll win very easily right now… I believe right after the election we’ll win, but maybe before the election, because they have 300% inflation,” Trump said during a speech in Denton, Texas. “Their air force has been totally extinguished, they have no anti-aircraft, they have some missiles, but we can handle it,” he added.

US said to deploy more Patriot missiles to S. Arabia, Qatar

The United States military recently sent two additional Patriot missile defense systems to Saudi Arabia and Qatar to help them safeguard critical oil and gas sites from potential regional threats, Axios reported, citing US officials. This deployment is meant to reaffirm Washington’s protection of key Gulf allies and their energy infrastructure in case US President Donald Trump decides to resume major military operations against Iran. Trump stated recently that Iran will either have to sign a “very fair” deal, or the country “won’t exist any longer,” warning of potential bombing operations in the coming period.

NN: I want to be clear here. Trump is gearing up for something BIG here. Even  if the lefty liberal fagot commies take the hous and the senate they will not be able to stp Trump. When he has got nothing to lose he has everything to gail. All i can say is bombs away and $150 oil here we come

 

A FlyDubai commercial flight number FZ1073 Dubai to Tel Aviv was rescued from near disaster over Israel by a brave pilot bleeding and a Israel Plumber returning from a vacation

Most of the 174 passengers were Jews and Israelis 166 of them heading to Israel, some returning home, others coming for a holiday. They were two and a half hours into the three hour flight.

The plane was approaching Tel Aviv Israels largest a city with a population of 4.3 million people. Behind the cockpit door sat Captain Smit Machchhar, an Indian national, and First Officer the Omani co pilot we will call him Mohammad since his real name has not been disclosed. As Dubai tries to play down the fact it was a terrorist attack ordered out of Iran. The Co Pilot was new he joined Fly Dubai, about eight months ago. The warning signs he was a radicalized terrorist were everywhere. He declined to shake hands with female colleagues because of his religious observance. And was described as praying “excessively.” He carried the Koran everywhere he went.

Captain Machchhar was looking forward to time off with his family. Copilot Mohammad was dreaming about his 72 virgins,

Mohammad had secretly joined ISIS. His intended victims were the Jewish passengers entrusted to his care and the people in downtown Tel Aviv. He imagined turning the aircraft into a weapon, repeating the horror of September 11 against another skyline. He had concealed that purpose behind the uniform of a man paid to bring people safely home.

Captain Machchhar noticed his silence. He asked a routine question and received no answer. When he turned, Rahman was already moving.

The attack came so suddenly that the captain had no time to understand the first blow. Then he felt the wound. Blood soaked his shirt. He tried to push his colleague away, struck the side of his seat, and fell against the cockpit floor.

Outside, the cabin innocent civilians remained unaware that they faced a near death life changing experience.

The reality check came when the aircraft dropped plunging more than 14,000 feet (4,300 meters) in less than 30 seconds. Thankfully the pilot unlatched the cockpit door. And a Israeli Plumber by the name of Yaniv Hayun rushed into the cockpit and pull up on the stick with seconds to spare. Yaniv said he watched the TV show Air Crash investigations and remembered shows where pilots pulled back on the controls to take a plane out of a dive.

The first scream came from the front of the aircraft. A second followed it. The cabin tilted, and a cup struck the ceiling before falling into the aisle. People reached for seats, for relatives, for anything that felt fixed.

Inside the cockpit, Mohammad had seized the controls. “Allahu akbar!” he shouted. “I will die a shahid!” His declaration accompanied an attempt to kill the passengers and people on the ground. His words made his intention unmistakable to the wounded captain.

The Captain tried to rise up his arm gave way. He could feel blood beneath his hand and hear cries through the closed door. The man who had attacked him was still within reach, but Captain Macchhar no longer had the strength to wrestle him away alone.

The captain understood what was happening. Mohammad wanted to kill the Jewish passengers helpless locked out of the cabin. There was nothing they could do. The aircraft had become a prison moving through the sky. Every person aboard depended on someone at the front stopping the descent.

Macchhar reached for the cockpit door release. Mohhamad saw him move and shoved him back. The captain struck the floor again. For a moment he lay still, his face against the cold surface, listening to passenger screams behind him.

He moved again.

Pain narrowed his world to the distance between his hand and the release. He could not save the aircraft from the floor. He could give someone else a chance to reach it. He stretched, dragged himself closer, and miraculously opened the cockpit door.

An Israeli passenger standing near the front saw the captain’s blood first. Then he saw the struggle and understood that the flight was being attacked from within.

There was no announcement telling him what to do. No time to appoint a leader. Behind him were people he loved. Ahead of him was the man trying to kill them.

Yaniv Hayun rushed through the doorway. He collided with Mohammad before he could turn fully toward the open door. Another Israeli followed. A third came forward from the aisle, stumbling as the aircraft moved beneath him. They crowded into a space too small for the fight unfolding inside it.

Mohmmad struck back. A passenger’s head hit the doorway. Blood ran down his face, and he wiped at it with his sleeve because he could no longer see clearly. Another man lost his footing, caught himself, and returned to the struggle. Nobody knew whether their effort would be enough.

In the cabin, a woman heard the fighting and called for people to stay back from the aisle. She tried to keep the path clear. A parent held a child so tightly that the child protested, and the sound of that protest was suddenly precious. Other passengers prayed. One man kept saying that he had to get home, as if repeating the words could hold the aircraft in the air. Others were reciting the Shema Israel a prayer commonly recited when Jews face death. Hear o Israel the lord is our GOD the lord is one. Blessed be the name of his glorious kingdom forever and ever.

At the front, the passengers fought to restrain the attacker. They had no rehearsed plan. They could see the wounded captain trying to move, and they understood that he needed room. They shouted to one another over the noise, their words breaking into commands and cries.

The Captain pulled himself upright. A Jewish passenger a dentist helped him. His shirt was heavy with blood, and his breathing had become shallow. He looked toward the controls and then toward the people holding Mohammad. One of them met his eyes and saw his radicalized hatred.

“We’ve got him,” the passenger said. He could not know whether that promise would hold. He made it anyway.

Fortunately relief pilots were on board they regained control of the aircraft. A second qualified pilot, traveling aboard as a passenger reached the cockpit and helped him. Together they began to recover the the badly damaged airplane. While the others kept Mohammad restrained. Please note they did not kill their attempted assign but rendered him first aid.

The descent eased. Nobody in the cabin trusted the change at first. People waited for another violent movement, another scream, another sign that the fight had been lost. Then the aircraft steadied. Someone began to cry from relief. Other’s cheered grateful to still be alive.

Surviving the dive did not mean the ordeal was over. The captain was wounded. The passengers were frightened. The attacker was still aboard, restrained and watched. The cripled aircraft full of people had to reach the ground safely, and every unfamiliar sound now made someone look up.

The crew spoke to the cabin. They told the passengers that control had been restored and asked them to remain seated. The announcement was brief. It gave people something they could understand and something they could do. It did not pretend that nothing had happened.

The flight turned back toward Dubai. The supporting pilot took over much of the flying while Captin Machchhar received help for his injuries. The captain stayed involved as his condition allowed. Other crew members moved through the cabin, checking passengers and trying to restore order without making promises they could not keep.

A woman asked whether the bleeding captain would live. A crew member told her he was being helped. A man wanted to call his wife. Another stared at his own hands, astonished to find blood on them. He had entered the cockpit so quickly that he could barely remember deciding to go.

The passengers who had fought Rahman did not feel like heroes. One was shaking too hard to hold a cup. Another kept returning to the same question: what if he had hesitated? The question had no useful answer, but it would not leave him alone.

As the crippled aircraft suffering severe tail damage continued toward Dubai, the cabin became quiet. People listened to the engines. They watched the crew. A child asked whether they were still going on vacation, and her father said they would talk about it when they landed. It was the first ordinary conversation he had managed since the dive.

At the front, the pilots concentrated on bringing everyone safely down. The imagined tower target in Tel Aviv was behind them. The attacker had failed to reach it. But the passengers would not feel safe until the wheels touched a runway and stayed there.

When the landing finally came, a few people applauded. Others were too exhausted to move.

The aircraft rolled to a stop.

The doors opened to emergency personnel. Medical workers reached the wounded captain, and authorities took the restrained attacker into custody. Passengers left the aircraft in uneven groups. Some walked quickly, desperate to put distance between themselves and the cockpit. Others stopped at the door and looked back.

The Brave pilot from India was taken for treatment. He had survived the attack, but the wounds were severe, and his recovery would take time. The passengers who had been injured in the struggle also received care. Nobody died. Survival did not erase the memories of the blood, the pain, or the hours when death had seemed unavoidable.

In a room away from the aircraft, people began calling home. Several could not complete their first sentence. A woman said her husband’s name, heard him answer, and started crying. A father told his family that their daughter was safe. He had to repeat it because the person listening could not believe him.

The Israelis who had entered the cockpit sat among the others. Their bloodstained clothes made them easy to recognize. Passengers approached them, shook their hands, embraced them, and sometimes stood beside them without finding any words at all.

One of the men kept saying that anyone would have done the same. A woman who had watched him run forward answered that she had not run forward. She thanked him. He lowered his eyes, unsure how to accept it.

The Dubai investigation has so far been a cover up. True investigation by the Israeli Mossad will examine Mohammad ISIS and Iranian connection and his intended target.

For the passengers waiting in Dubai, the immediate question was simpler: when could they go home? They had survived, but they were still far from the people who needed to see them.

Arrangements were made for another flight to Israel. Some passengers hesitated before boarding. The sight of another aircraft brought the fear back. They went together, watching one another, accepting help where they needed it.

This time, the destination would be a homecoming and heroes welcome in Israel…

In Israel, relatives waited beyond the arrivals doors. They checked their phones, looked toward the corridor, and asked whether the flight had landed. Information had reached them in fragments. Knowing someone was alive by telephone was different from seeing that person walk toward you.

Then the passengers appeared. A little girl saw her grandmother and ran. Her father followed more slowly, still carrying the bag he had packed for a holiday. The grandmother knelt and held the child against her. Nobody asked about the vacation.

A woman reached her husband and put both hands against his face. He tried to tell her that he was all right, but she was already pulling him close. Behind them, another family embraced a man whose shirt still bore the marks of the cockpit fight. His son looked at the blood and asked whose it was.

The man said they would talk later. For a while, there was only the work of finding one another. People called names across the hall. Suitcases stood unattended beside reunions. A passenger who had held himself together through

This is the ending of an attempted atrocity by Iran: an ISIS attacker defeated, the aircraft recovered, every life preserved, and wounded people given a chance to heal. The fear does not vanish at the arrivals hall. Some survivors will remember the dive whenever they board another flight. Others will wake hearing the scream that came from the cockpit.

But they will wake. The people the attacker intended to kill are home. Downtown Tel Aviv remains standing. Families that might have been waiting for terrible news are holding the people they love.

Iran has got to be stopped. Imagin what they will do if they get nukes!

The price of oil futures increased on Wednesday, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) soaring 2.5% as worries over the situation in the Middle East continued to persist. While some media reports suggested earlier that Washington was ready to offer sanctions relief to Iran to accelerate nuclear negotiations, United States President Donald Trump said this was a “hoax,” denying the claims. In addition, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the country would continue to target Iran and its enablers. WTI for November settlements surged 2.5% at 11:32 am ET, going for $91.33 a barrel. At the same time, Brent for the same month’s deliveries added 1.10%, selling at $103.72 per barrel.

NN: Its election season, prepare yourself for a blizzard of bullshit!

 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed on Wednesday that a pilot on a flydubai flight bound for Israel stabbed the other pilot and apparently tried to crash the aircraft. Netanyahu said an Israeli passenger told him that he and a crew member forced their way into the cockpit and subdued the pilot as he tried to sabotage the plane’s systems, and he hailed the bravery of the passengers and crew who stopped the assailant. The flight diverted and landed safely in Saudi Arabia, where the Israeli leader said the authorities are questioning the attacker. Israel is in contact with Saudi authorities to arrange the passengers’ return.

NN: These Hodges cannot help themselves. Wonder where the knife came from? It plunged so hard it damn near tore the tail off

Greedy oil companies are supplying US Diesel fuel and heating oil to Europe because they pay twice the price

• This means US prices are doubling

• US reserves of heating oil and diesel fuel are crashing

• Oil companies are the most profitable they have ever been

• Their is a real danger if winter is sever heating oil sullpies wll run out

Here is the inside story of how the manipulation works. A story Wall Street and oil companies are willing to do anything to stop this from getting out

Once again I find myself on the fireline. Attempts to hack our web sights. This Midnight phone calls. People follow us. Offers of cash. And I told them what I told Bill Clinton, The world gold council, Nasdaq, CME, NFA Wall Street and the rest of the scum bags… KISS MY ASS!

HERE IS THE INSIDE SKINNY:

US distillate inventories are at multi-year lows —

107.4 million barrels as of September 18, 2026, the lowest for this time of year in roughly 45 years, and 12% below the five-year average. The East Coast is 31% below norm.New England heating oil stocks hit an all-time low of 2.3 million barrels. US refiners are running at their highest sustained rates since 2018, and roughly half of Europe’s seaborne diesel now comes from the United States — about 520,000 barrels a day in August.

SUCKING America dry. AS YOU ARE SEEING US INVENTORIES TO RECORD LOWS. While European inventories are their highest ever

Europe, by contrast, sits on enormous emergency stockpiles. 380 million barrels Under EU Directive 2009/119/EC, every member state must hold stocks equal to at least 90 days of net imports or 61 days of consumption, whichever is greater — and at least one-third must be refined products. Germany held about 92 days as of June, Spain 97, the Netherlands 94. Petroleum Economist’s Paul Hickin puts combined European commercial and government diesel at about 350 million barrels, the largest such pile in the world. The European Commission said in September it sees no diesel shortage in the bloc, and that commercial and emergency stocks are sufficient.

Yet Europe will not draw those stocks to ease prices. IEA doctrine is explicit: the emergency system is “not a tool for price intervention or long-term supply management.” Releases are for severe physical disruptions, not for the market. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said Tuesday that Europe is among the most exposed regions — “if not the most exposed one” — because it imports “huge amounts of diesel” into winter, with Russia and the Gulf constrained and the United States now considering an export ban of its own. Asked whether the IEA had tried to talk Washington out of a ban, Birol said the agency advises members on what is in their interest and their allies’ interest. He did not claim a veto.

Washington is now testing that doctrine in public. Politico reported Tuesday that the White House may ask European governments to release diesel from strategic reserves as a way to skip a full US export ban. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum put the premise in one sentence: “It is a fact that the Europeans have a lot of diesel reserves.” An industry executive familiar with the talks said the motivation is “to stop a ban.” Reuters, the same day, reported the White House is already urging the EU to draw emergency diesel inventories and is particularly frustrated with France and Germany for delivering only a fraction of what they pledged to the March 400-million-barrel IEA release. Energy Secretary Chris Wright made the same charge: the US and Japan are delivering; several European members are not.

Germany’s answer is already on the record. A spokesperson for the Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy said the country is unlikely to agree unless there is an actual shortage. That is the official line. It is also selective. On 30 September, Economy Minister Katherina Reiche — in coordination with Chancellor Friedrich Merz — ordered state-owned Sefe to procure and inject 8 TWh of natural gas by 15 December because German gas storage is only about 58% full, well below the EU average of ~71% and far below last September. Reiche had first asked Sefe to buy “in small steps so as not to alarm the market.” That request is now an order. Berlin will use the state to fill gas tanks. It will not use emergency oil stocks to ease a diesel market it says is not in shortage.

The other side of the Atlantic is not waiting. Moscow on 30 September extended the ban on diesel, marine fuel, and gasoil exports by direct producers through 31 October (it had been due to expire the same day). The stated reason: a stable domestic market during harvest demand. The broader Russian fuel-export ban still runs to 31 January 2027; the jet-fuel ban to 30 November. Russia was the world’s second-largest diesel exporter after the United States. Those barrels are not coming back before winter.

The result is a one-way flow. American inventories drain to supply Europe. European emergency barrels sit untouched.

Russian product stays home. Americans pay elevated prices for a tightness that is in part policy-created: the molecule exists, in European tanks and in US export cargoes, but it is not being held for US winter demand. The asymmetry is structural, not accidental. The US has no 90-day product obligation, no refined-product strategic reserve, and no tool to redirect barrels home short of an export ban. Europe has the obligation, the barrels, and the legal right to release them — and chooses not to. Washington’s ask, Germany’s refusal, Birol’s warning, and Russia’s extra month of curbs all point the same way: if the winter is cold, the swing barrel is still an American one.

 

Diesel and Heating Oil: US vs Europe.

Prices. US national averages, excluding California: diesel $6.38 a gallon, heating oil $5.54. The diesel-to-heating-oil gap is about 85 cents. Europe’s weighted averages: diesel around $9.60, heating oil around $7.53, gap about $2.04. Germany: diesel $10.56, heating oil $7.35. France: diesel $10.24, heating oil $8.33. The key driver is taxes — Europe’s excise duties and VAT add roughly 40% to the pump price, while US diesel taxes are only about 60 cents a gallon. Wholesale spot at New York Harbor: heating oil around $5.00, diesel around $5.22

Inventories. EIA, week ending September 18, 2026: total distillate stocks 107.4 million barrels, down about 14% year-over-year, 12% below the five-year average — lowest for this time of year in about 45 years. By region: East Coast 31% below norm, the tightest. Midwest 11% below. Gulf Coast 2% above, normal. Rocky Mountain 10% below. West Coast normal. Northeast heating oil stocks: about 12.7 million barrels — only about 23 days of cover at normal winter draw. Europe, July 2026: EU middle distillates about 372 million barrels, down 5% from two years ago. EU diesel days of cover about 94 days, minimum 90. ARA hub gasoil hit a 4-year low in August.

Trade flows. US share of EU diesel imports: August 2026 about 50%, 2026 year-to-date about 32%, 2025 about 17%, July 2024 about 38%. Context: before the war, Russian diesel made up over 40% of Europe’s diesel imports. Gulf diesel exports to Europe are down about 75%. The Strait of Hormuz disruption is the main current constraint.

The arbitrage. Why US refiners sell to Europe: European diesel crack hit a record $74.66 a barrel in summer 2026. Gross arbitrage about $41 a barrel, roughly 98 cents a gallon. Domestic US crack about $28. Export premium about $13 a barrel more than selling at home.

On a 300,000-barrel cargo, that’s about $12.4 million IN EXTRA MOEY by sucking down US inventories and selling to Europe

Winter outlook, cold-winter scenario. Northeast heating oil: 12.7 million barrels on hand. Normal winter draw needs about 82 million barrels. Cold winter, plus 20% demand, needs about 99 million. Shortfall versus current stocks: about 86 million barrels. Import need to fill the gap: about 576,000 barrels a day.

Price scenarios for a Northeast household using 800 gallons a winter: at $3.50 a gallon, 2025 winter, $2,800. At $5.50, $4,400. At $6.50, $5,200. At $7.50, $6,000. At $8.50, $6,800. Extra cost at $7.50 versus $3.50: $3,200 per household. Region-wide Northeast consumer spending: at $7.50 a gallon, about $30 billion. At $3.50, about $14 billion. Extra cost about $16 billion. 2022 precedent: Northeast heating oil went from about $3.50 to $6.50 a gallon, up 86%, on similar stock levels — and this year the import pipeline is tighter, so the spike could be worse. Subjective scenario probabilities: mild winter about 30% — prices stay elevated but manageable. Average winter about 40% — $5 to $6 a gallon, some spot shortages. Cold winter about 25% — $6.50 to $8, rationing risk in the Northeast. Severe plus supply shock about 5% — crisis territory.

Wildcards. US export policy: if the US cuts EU diesel exports by 30%, about 54,000 barrels a day, Europe has nowhere to replace them — European cracks spike further, US stocks rebuild, but prices diverge sharply. Strait of Hormuz: if it reopens, Gulf barrels flow back and everything eases; if it stays closed, tightness persists. IEA strategic releases: 400 million barrels released since March, about a third hasn’t reached markets yet, and product releases take weeks to reach consumers. Demand destruction: at $8 a gallon, consumption typically falls 10 to 15%. The molecule problem: in the US, heating oil and diesel are the same molecule — truckers and homeowners compete for the same barrel, and in 2022 that pushed Northeast heating oil to record premiums over diesel.

Bottom line. Not a 1970s-style crisis — no lines at the pump. But a 2022-style price shock is the base case for a cold winter. Risk is asymmetric: upside price risk is much larger than downside. Structural tightness persists into 2027 regardless of weather. If the winter is mild, stocks rebuild and prices ease $1 to $1.50 a gallon by spring. The two things that change everything: US export policy and Hormuz.

If it’s a colder then normal winter their will be diesel fuel and heating oil shortages. Either way at a minim expect prices to double

DIESEL AND HEATING OIL

UNITED STATES vs EUROPE

30 September 2026 · Nick Guarino

US distillate stocks sit at a 45-year seasonal low while Europe is paying a record diesel crack and taking roughly half of its August diesel imports from the United States. Heating oil and diesel are the same molecule. A cold Northeast winter would force households and truckers to bid against each other for a barrel that is already leaving the Atlantic Coast for Europe.

PRICES

Retail

Market	Diesel	Heating oil	Gap
United States*	$6.38 / gal	$5.54 / gal	~$0.85 / gal
Europe (EU wtd.)	~$9.60 / gal	~$7.53 / gal	~$2.04 / gal
Germany	$10.56 / gal	$7.35 / gal	—
France	$10.24 / gal	$8.33 / gal	—

US figures are national averages excluding California. US heating oil is the last official reading, late March 2026.

Taxes and wholesale

Europe’s excise duties and VAT add roughly 40% to the pump price. US diesel taxes are only about $0.60 per gallon.

New York Harbor wholesale: heating oil ~$5.00, diesel ~$5.22. Heating oil is cheaper at wholesale in the offseason; the gap flips in winter.

INVENTORIES

United States (EIA, week ending 18 September 2026). Total distillate stocks: 107.4 million barrels — down ~14% year-over-year, 12% below the five-year average, and the lowest for this time of year in ~45 years.

Region	Vs. seasonal norm
East Coast	31% below (tightest)
Midwest	11% below
Gulf Coast	2% above (normal)
Rocky Mountain	10% below
West Coast	Normal

Northeast heating oil stocks: ~12.7 million barrels — only ~23 days of cover at a normal winter draw.

Europe (July 2026). EU middle distillates: ~372 million barrels, down 5% from two years ago. EU diesel days of cover: ~94 days (minimum 90). ARA hub gasoil hit a 4-year low in August.

TRADE FLOWS

US share of EU diesel imports: August 2026 ~50%; 2026 year-to-date ~32%; 2025 ~17%; July 2024 ~38%.

Before the war, Russian diesel made up over 40% of Europe’s diesel imports. Gulf diesel exports to Europe are down ~75%. The Strait of Hormuz disruption is the main current constraint.

THE ARBITRAGE

Why US refiners sell to Europe: the European diesel crack hit a record $74.66/barrel in summer 2026. Gross arbitrage is ~$41/barrel (~$0.98/gallon). The domestic US crack is ~$28/barrel, so the export premium is ~$13/barrel more than selling at home. On a 300,000-barrel cargo that is ~$12.4 million.

Fragility: if the crack falls to $40, net falls to ~$7/barrel and the trade stops making sense.

WINTER OUTLOOK — COLD-WINTER SCENARIO

Northeast heating oil on hand: 12.7 million barrels. A normal winter draw is ~82 million barrels; a cold winter (+20% demand) needs ~99 million. Shortfall versus current stocks: ~86 million barrels. Import need to fill the gap: ~576,000 barrels/day.

Price scenarios for a Northeast household (800 gallons/winter)

Retail price	Season bill
$3.50 / gal (2025 winter)	$2,800
$5.50 / gal	$4,400
$6.50 / gal	$5,200
$7.50 / gal	$6,000
$8.50 / gal	$6,800

Extra cost at $7.50 versus $3.50: $3,200 per household. Region-wide Northeast consumer spending at $7.50/gal is ~$30 billion versus ~$14 billion at $3.50/gal in 2025 — an extra ~$16 billion.

2022 precedent: Northeast heating oil went from ~$3.50 to $6.50/gal (+86%) on similar stock levels. This year the import pipeline is tighter, so the spike could be worse.

Subjective scenario probabilities

Case	Probability	Outcome
Mild winter	~30%	Elevated but manageable
Average winter	~40%	$5–6/gal, some spot shortages
Cold winter	~25%	$6.50–8/gal, rationing risk in the Northeast
Severe + shock	~5%	Crisis territory

Sources

EIA, European Commission/Eurostat, OPEC MOMR, Kpler, S&P Global, IEA, Insights Global, Bruegel. Exchange rate ~1.1355 USD/EUR. All figure

 

The Russian government issued a decree on Wednesday, extending the ban on the export of diesel and marine fuel, as well as gas oils exported from Russia by direct producers, until October 31, 2026. The decision was made to maintain a stable situation on the domestic fuel market, including in the context of increased demand for motor fuel during the harvest season,” the government stated. The restrictions were previously extended only until September 30. Meanwhile, Moscow’s general ban on Russian fuel exports remains in effect until January 31, 2027, the same as the ban on diesel fuel exports for non-producers, while the ban on jet fuel exports is in effect until November 30.

IEA: Europe could be most exposed to diesel crisis

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Tuesday that Europe is among the most exposed regions, “if not the most exposed one,” to the ongoing diesel supply shortages. He noted that the European Union imports “huge amounts of diesel,” especially ahead of the winter season, and warned that supply-chain difficulties are exacerbating the situation. Birol pointed to issues faced by traditional exporters such as Russia and the Gulf states, but also the United States, which is now considering a ban on diesel exports as well. Asked whether the IEA has tried to persuade the Trump administration not to impose a ban, he said that the agency is advising all member countries on actions that are in their interest, as well as in the interest of their allies and partners.

US might ask Europe to tap into diesel reserves

The White House might contact European governments to ask them to release diesel from their own strategic reserves, as the Trump administration continues to search for options that would allow it to skip a complete diesel export ban, Politico reported on Tuesday, citing sources. Meanwhile, United States Interior Secretary Doug Burgum hinted at the plan previously, telling reporters that “it is a fact that the Europeans have a lot of diesel reserves.”

Paul Hickin, the chief economist and editor-in-chief at London-based Petroleum Economist, previously shared that Europe has 350 million barrels of diesel in reserves, with this being the biggest combined commercial and government reserves of the fuel in the world. A spokesperson for the German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy suggested that the country is unlikely to agree to such a move unless there is an actual shortage.

 

 

Europe is heading into winter with a thin natural gas cushion, expensive diesel, disrupted supplies from the Gulf, and a new question hanging over American diesel exports. Price and availability are converging. That is the story you need to understand. One cold winter exposes the energy crises governments are hell bent to cover up. A household can have gas in the pipe and still be unable to afford the heat. A truck can find diesel at the pump and still be unable to run a profitable route. And if supplies tighten further, the price crisis can become a physical shortage. That is the escalation I want you to see.

It start with natural gas. European storage is around seventy percent full, well below its normal level for late September. The first warning signs are everywhere. The European energy commissioner has urged countries to conserve gas and electricity, while saying there is currently no threat to security of supply. So that begs the question why are they asking people to conserve? That is the official position today. My question is what happens after long months of cold weather causes supplies to run critically low or even run out. Europe partially replaced some of its lost Russian pipeline gas with other pipeline supplies and much more expensive liquefied natural gas. LNG arrives by ship and competes for buyers across the globe. When a major supplier cannot deliver contracted cargoes, somebody else must supply them—and the replacement can cost more and worse case not available. Italy’s Edison says Qatar Energy has extended cancellations of LNG deliveries into December. Some of those cargoes have been replaced but not all.. Qatar is not sending anywhere close to its usual cargoes: a small amount of Qatar-linked LNG vessels have recently moved through Hormuz. But the loss of dependable Qatari supply leaves buyers fighting for substitutes. Diesel is next. Diesel powers industry, freight, farms, equipment, and a substantial share of Europe’s cars. The price at British pumps has just reached a record. Higher diesel costs travel and transport with every delivery of food, medicine, and manufactured goods. Middle Eastern refinery damage and disrupted Russian refining have squeezed global supplies. Gulf refiners have not all stopped producing, and Hormuz is not sealed to every vessel. But supplies and shipments are greatly reduced. Its no accident that their are no reliable numbers enviable. Even so a tanker making it through today is no guarantee that the next cargo arrives on time, at the old freight rate, or at the old insurance cost. Or arrives at all. And then Washington enters the picture. President Trump raised the possibility of restricting American diesel exports to ease pressure at home. And he could at any time.. remember America first. The White House later denied that a ninety-day ban was being prepared, and the energy secretary questioned whether a ban would even work. So there is no enacted export ban to report so far. In a sign of concern Europe’s energy commissioner has urged the United States to keep diesel flowing. That tells you how much a credible threat can matter when the market is already tight. Again I remind you with Trump its America first and America also has price and supply issues. Hormuz is a choke point for Gulf energy. Qatar’s lost LNG deliveries push gas buyers scrambling for replacement cargoes. Refinery disruption constrains diesel. A possible American export restriction threatens one of the remaining sources of some supplies. Meanwhile, Europe starts winter with less stored gas than usual. Each pressure point can amplify the next. Here is my disaster worse case. Suppose winter turns hard and the disruptions persist which is my bet.. Storage draws down quickly. LNG bidders raise prices against one another. Families shut off rooms to save on heat. Factories cut shifts or stop lines. Diesel becomes so expensive that some routes no longer pay; if deliveries also fail, trucks sit still. Governments scramble to protect essential users. And where power systems are strained, the lights could go out. You do not need every one of those failures for people to suffer and we already have the biggest energy crises ever. . The price crisis arrives first. The pensioner rationing heat and the factory laying off a shift are living through an energy crisis even while fuel remains technically available. A physical shortage would take the same crisis to another level. I am not asking you to take a blackout as a forecast carved in stone. Weather can be mild. Ships can return. Replacement cargoes can arrive. Negotiations could reopen dependable routes. But the relevant question is not whether Europe survives an ordinary winter. It is how much margin remains if winter is severe and supply stays unreliable. So follow four measures with me: gas storage drawdowns, LNG cargo arrivals, diesel inventories and deliveries, and the actual flow of ships through Hormuz. Listen carefully when governments say supply is secure today. Then ask whether it will remain secure at a price homes and industry can pay. And in what quantities. Gas for heat and power. Diesel for the road and the factory. Qatar’s missing cargoes. A threatened American export embargo. A damaged, uncertain Gulf supply chain. Remember we are seeing the biggest supply cuts ever. And global inventories are at hand to mouth levels. Their are no excess inventories. No margin for error and Government strategic supplies are running out.

Nick Guarino

 

United States President Donald Trump confirmed on Monday that both a US delegation and an Iranian team have spoken to mediators to exchange views on ending the conflict. However, he did not provide any further details about those conversations. “We’re gonna win. As far as I’m concerned, it’s gonna be one way or the other. It’s gonna go pretty quickly,” Trump told reporters at the White House. Furthermore, the US president reiterated that the US will win the war “very soon,” which will lead to a significant decline in oil and gas prices.

NN: Trump needs a rabbit out of his hat before the elections. Iran knows that after the elections the kid gloves comes off. Trump has nothing to lose. He is free to follow his animal instincts. Iran is better off getting a deal now where Trumps has to pay attention to public opinion. To be clear here any deal is a way for Iran to buy time. Any agreement will ultimately  fail. Because the Ayatollahs have nothing to lose. They will still make a play for the only thing that can save them… Nukes!

 

United States President Donald Trump is said to be considering easing sanctions on Iran and releasing frozen Iranian assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue, sources told Axios reporter Barak Ravid on Monday. The development follows Iran’s proposed seven-day roadmap to end the war with the United States, under which it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, secure an easing of sanctions on its oil exports, and gain access to an estimated $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets. However, President Trump publicly rejected the offer. US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz explained that Trump declined the plan as Tehran demanded sanctions relief and access to frozen assets before nuclear negotiations. “They were asking for everything up front, with a promise that they would then talk,” Waltz added.

NN: See BlaclMask Pod cast Titled: Trumps Pulls a Rabbit Out of His Hat