An Editorial Analysis of the G7 Emergency Oil and Diesel Release

By Nick Guarino

The Headline Sounds Big. The Arithmetic Is Not

The Group of Seven and its partners have agreed to release 100 million barrels of emergency diesel, crude oil and other petroleum stocks through the International Energy Agency over four months, with diesel front-loaded into the first 20 days. The announcement follows intense pressure to contain fuel prices by the US and a G7 commitment to avoid energy-export restrictions among members.

One hundred million barrels sounds enormous. Spread across roughly four months, however, it averages only about 830,000 barrels per day. That is not meaningful emergency supply release, when its measured against a global oil supply that has already been devastated by historic disruptions, extraordinary inventory draws and severe refined-product shortages in the billions of barrels..

Our conclusion is straightforward: the release can buy a little time and exert a little downward pressure on prices temporarily. It cannot by itself repair the growing physical supply problem.

Five Data Points the Market Should Not Ignore

1. The 100-million-barrel release is less than one million barrels per day.

At an average of roughly 830,000 barrels per day over four months, the announced release is incredible small relative to the scale of current disruptions. Reuters reported the G7 agreement on October 2, including a token early release of diesel.

2. The real global deficit is smaller than the headline Hormuz loss – but still enormous.

The IEA reported in September that Hormuz flows averaged only 7.6 million barrels per day in August, 13.1 million barrels per day below prewar levels, with cumulative export losses through the waterway are approaching 2.8 billion barrels. But the IEA also stressed that alternative routes, lower demand, non-Gulf supply and inventory releases which are running out have temporarily offset some of that headline loss. Its estimated global oil balance deficits were about 2.2 million barrels per day in the second quarter and 1.7 million barrels per day in the third quarter.

3. Emergency Inventories have been doing the work that production and trade could not.

The IEA said observed global oil inventories were 507 million barrels lower than at the onset of the war by September, after IEA member countries had already released more than 300 million barrels of emergency stocks. Earlier, its August Oil Market Report recorded a 410-million-barrel decline since the war began, averaging about 2.7 million barrels per day.

4. Russia is intensifying the refined-products problem.

Reuters reported that Russia extended its diesel export ban through the end of October as Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted refinery operations. S&P Global reported that Russian Black Sea diesel and gasoil exports fell to zero for the first time on record in the week ending September 24. That does not mean all Russian diesel exports were zero: total Russian diesel/gasoil shipments that week were about 81,000 metric tons, almost half the prior week’s level.

5. The Hormuz highly politicized recovery numbers deserve careful interpretation.

Independent Kpler estimates cited by Reuters put September Middle East crude exports at 16.328 million barrels per day and flows through Hormuz at about 9.719 million barrels per day. Those figures are not merely ship counts, but neither are they an audited barrel-by-barrel tally. Reuters noted that the estimates exclude vessels operating without active tracking systems. The market should therefore distinguish between credible commercial estimates and perfect measurement in a wartime shipping environment.

The Critical Distinction: Crude Oil Is Not Diesel

The market has focused heavily on whether crude tankers are again moving through Hormuz. But a recovery in crude exports does not automatically restore diesel, gasoline, jet fuel or heating-oil availability.

The IEA reported that refinery throughput remained nearly 5 million barrels per day below year-earlier levels in July, while seaborne product trade was down 3.8 million barrels per day year over year. It specifically identified continuing Middle East product-export disruptions and attacks on Russian refineries as constraints on refinery activity.

That is why emergency crude oil releases alone cannot solve the problem. The world needs functioning refineries, usable trade routes, available tankers and sufficient inventories of the refined fuels consumed by transportation, agriculture, industry and heating.

Hormuz: Skepticism Is Justified, but So Is Precision

We believe investors should be skeptical of sweeping claims that the Strait of Hormuz problem has been solved by US military escorted tanker movements. The latest independent estimates show a substantial recovery in crude movements, but they remain tracking- and model-dependent estimates produced in an unusually opaque wartime environment.

At the same time, it would be incorrect to dismiss the recovery figures as nothing more than U.S. government press releases or simple vessel counts. Reuters has cited Kpler’s independent cargo-flow estimates, while also acknowledging the blind spot created by ships operating without active tracking systems.

Our position is therefore narrower and stronger: the exact volume moving through Hormuz cannot be known with perfect precision in real time, and improving crude flows should not be confused with normalization of the broader refined-products market. BUT record refinery utilization rates and record high crack spreads and record low distillate inventories and record high Diesel fuel prices reveal the untold truth. We are running out!

Russia Adds a Second Supply Shock

The Russian situation compounds the Middle East disruption. Ukrainian attacks have forced significant cutbacks at major Russian refineries, while Moscow has restricted diesel exports to protect domestic supplies. Reuters reported in September that six major Russian diesel-producing refineries had cut or halted output after drone strikes.

The historically unusual collapse of Black Sea diesel shipments illustrates the severity of the pressure. But precision matters here too: Black Sea diesel exports reached zero for one reported week; total Russian diesel exports did not. But it does not bode well for future supplies coming out of the black sea. Especially when viewed in light of Ukrainian threat and ability to continue drone attacks on Russian refineries and export shipping

Winter Is the Test

The emergency releases arrive as the Northern Hemisphere moves toward fall harvest season. And the start of winter time record demand for heating oil. And peek demand time of the year for diesel, and other middle distillates which are essential to trucking, agriculture, construction, industry and seasonal heating demand.

Emergency stocks can bridge a temporary interruption. They cannot permanently replace damaged refining capacity, restricted exports or disrupted trade routes.

That is the central danger we believe markets are underestimating.

Our Editorial Assessment

The G7 action may succeed in its immediate objective: send a reassuring signal, putting some downward pressure on prices and demonstrate that governments are acting. I regurad is as little more than a publicity stunt. The numbers are minuscule compared to seasonal deamnd and total supply disruptions.

But the timing also carries an obvious political dimension. President Trump and his administration are confronting extraordinarily high fuel prices immediately ahead of the November U.S. midterm elections. Reuters reported that the agreement followed U.S. pressure on Europe to release emergency stocks. It is obvious to me electoral considerations are driving political decisions. In fact; our editorial assessment is that the political incentive for visible action before the election is unmistakable. And meaningless to solving the coming winter supply shortages.

The danger is that a successful headline is mistaken for a successful solution.

A 100-million-barrel release spread over four months cannot come close to compensate for continuing production, refining and trade disruptions measured in millions of barrels per day. Nor can governments repeatedly draw strategic inventories without reducing the buffer available for the next emergency. In fact its worse the untold truth is emergency supplies are running out globally!

The question investors should be asking is not whether these releases can knock several dollars off today’s price of a barrel of oil. They can. But in a $100 oil market a potential temporary $10 drop is meaningless. In fact it is a buying opportunity. Especially since we anticipate $150 oil by years end.

The question is what happens when all the emergency barrels have been consumed and winter demand is still there. And supplies continue to be disrupted

If Middle Eastern refined-product exports remain constrained as we expect, and Russian refining and exports remain impaired, and inventories continue to decline, the world could enter winter with dangerously thin fuel buffers.

That is why we regard the latest announcement of G7 emergency releases as a sick joke – not a resolution of the energy crisis.

And when the publicity surrounding the emergency releases fades, the physical market will still have to answer the only question that ultimately matters:

Where will the replacement barrels – and especially the replacement diesel – come from?

Sources

1. Reuters, Oct. 2, 2026 – G7 countries agree on release of 100 million barrels of diesel and oil stocks after U.S. pressure.

2. International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report, Aug. 12, 2026 – global supply, refinery throughput and observed inventory data.

3. International Energy Agency, September 2026 analysis – Hormuz flows, cumulative export losses, global oil-balance deficits and emergency stock releases.

4. Reuters, Sept. 28, 2026 – Kpler estimates for Middle East crude exports and Strait of Hormuz flows; tracking limitations.

5. Reuters, Sept. 30, 2026 – Russia extends diesel export restrictions through October.

6. S&P Global Commodity Insights, Sept. 29, 2026 – Russian Black Sea diesel/gasoil exports fall to zero for the first time on record.

7. Reuters, Sept. 15, 2026 – refinery cutbacks following Ukrainian drone attacks on major Russian diesel-producing facilities.

Editorial analysis by Nick Guarino | October 2026

 

 

 

This is one of the best videos i have seen yet. Israel narrowly adverted a 911 style terrorist attack.  Fumy the Israeli Jews are presented as a people who  commit  crimes against humanity. I never saw a Jew suicide bomber, never saw Israel sanction hijackings or Jihad. Never saw Jews with gopro vides strapped to their head videoing the rape and torture of women children and innocent civilians. Love the Jew hate the Jew it does not matter these people are survivors. If you want to  worry about something worry  about the Hodges because the Jews are coming for them.

 

 

Hamam could face a firing squad
By Nick Guarino
Opinion and reported analysis | October 3, 2026

1.The warning that demands answers

A man taken out of Oman Air cockpit was pulled from flying in 2024 after extremist materials were found and moved to an administrative role. How to he ended up in FlyDubao cockpit, on a flight full of Jews to Israel. He attacked the captain with an axe and the aircraft plunged 17,000 feet in 30 seconds. Before being save by the brave pilots and some kick ass Israels who never give up without a fight.

The public deserves a full account of how this happened. And why those earlier warnings were igmored and bu who/

A statement about safety being the highest priority will not answer that question.

The terrorist now has a name: Hamam al-Hammami, an Omani national identified by sources speaking to AP, ABC News and other news organizations. Reuters reported on October 3 that neither the airline nor Emirati authorities had publicly identified him. His name emerging through reporting is proof FlyDubai has something to hide.

ABC News reports that officials say extremist material was found in his possession in 2024 while he was a trainee co-pilot at Oman Air, and that he was suspended from flying but retained in an administrative role. AP also reports an earlier grounding over extremist concerns before Flydubai hired him. These are serious allegations attributed to sources. The reported warning date is 2024.

2.The captain who opened the door

Captain Smit Machchhar, an Indian pilot, was badly wounded. According to his account reported by AP, he used his remaining strength to unlock the cockpit door. That gave people outside a chance to intervene. Passengers subdued the attacker, and other pilots aboard helped recover and land the aircraft. [2]

He was one tough son of a bitch. Whatever the attacker expected, the captain fought back. Opening that door while injured was an act of extraordinary courage and inner strenth while bleed to death from two blows with aa ax.. The passengers who rushed forward also chose to act at a moment when hesitation could have been fatal.

The Israeli passengers who intervened deserve recognition as individuals who helped save everyone aboard. Their courage stands on its own. For me, the Israel-bound route makes the possibility of an antisemitic motive an urgent investigative question.

3.The flight sequence

The following times are UTC on September 30, 2026, from Flightradar24. They describe recorded aircraft movements and signals; they do not timestamp every action inside the cockpit. [4]

03:05 — Flight FZ1073 departed Dubai for Tel Aviv and climbed to 34,000 feet.

05:21 — A steep descent began, followed by a sharp climb and another steep descent.

05:28:48 — The aircraft transmitted 7700, the general emergency code.

By 05:33 — Its altitude had centered around 15,000 feet, with continuing fluctuations.

05:35 — It changed to 7500, indicating unlawful interference. After briefly entering Jordanian airspace, it turned back and headed toward Tabuk.

Approaching Tabuk — The aircraft returned to 7700. Flightradar24 reports a safe landing; its last received ADS-B message was at 06:58.

My suspicion and the evidence needs to be uncovered

I believe we have narrowly escaped a mass murder on the scale of 9/11. To me, the survival of this Israel-bound flight is a miracle earned by a wounded captain and the people who refused to surrender. My firm suspicion is that the attacker did not act alone and that Iran may have orchestrated the attempt.

Lockerbie comes to mind as a comparison about the possibility of a wider operation behind an aviation attack.

A 9/11-style attack with a Tel Aviv skyscraper as a target. Trump suggested an Iranian link on October 1.

ABC reports that sources say the suspect indicated an intention to crash the aircraft in Israel. That is a significant reported allegation.

I am skeptical that an earlier extremism warning could disappear between employers without a serious failure somewhere.. Knowing complicity by airline employees is obvious here.

The hiring file, former-employer communications, security referrals and crew assignment records should answer who knew what, and when. Investigators should preserve and authenticate the relevant social media accounts. AP reports an Instagram account was deleted on the flight day.

4.Custody and the next questions

The UAE prosecutor general has characterized the incident as an attempted terrorist attack, according to Reuters. The suspect was transferred from Saudi Arabia to the UAE; this was a custody transfer. [1, 3]

ABC reports that Israeli officials are expected to be involved in questioning. Expected participation does not mean questioning has already occurred. Investigators must establish any connections through records, corroborated testimony and forensic evidence. [3]

Flydubai says it supports the official investigation and has suspended its Tel Aviv operations at the authorities’ request. Its response belongs in the record alongside the hard questions. Commercial embarrassment is a possible incentive for defensive messaging; And I suspect a cover up at the highest level [4]

My demand is straightforward: explain how a man reportedly removed from flying over extremism concerns reached that cockpit. Explain what was checked. Explain what was missed. And establish whether anyone helped him. The captain and the people who intervened saved lives. The institutions responsible now owe them answers.

What we know about this son of a b_ _ _ _h so far:

Hamam al-Hammami, twenty-nine, is an Omani national reportedly born in the UAE to an Omani father and a Syrian mother. Their names aren’t verified. He completed an aviation management degree by distance learning at Buckinghamshire New University in 2023. Officials cited by ABC say Oman Air removed him from flying in 2024 over extremist material. Royal Air Maroc confirms three months of theoretical training in 2025, and no job offer. An Israeli official tells CNN he worked for Flydubai about eight months before the September 30th, 2026 cockpit attack. AP reports he traveled to Syria, but without dates or contacts. His home village, address, marital status, and siblings are unconfirmed. Once the Mossad get a hold of him and ups the voltage we will learn a lot more. Unless they do a Jeffery Epstein number on him while in custody

As a point in fact he faces the death penalty

Under UAE Federal Law: Article five, subsection two, aircraft seizure causing injury, and article six, subsection two, endangering an aircraft causing injury. Both allow death by Firing Squad or life imprisonment.

5.Sources

[1] Reuters, October 3, 2026, “Flydubai co-pilot attacked pilot with axe in attempted terrorist attack, UAE says.” https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/flydubai-co-pilot-attacked-pilot-with-axe-attempted-terrorist-attack-uae-says-2026-10-03/

[2] Associated Press, October 3, 2026, reporting on al-Hammami’s identification, prior extremism concerns and employment history. Includes the AP article supplied by the author. https://apnews.com/article/cf64a228799e6e788e834cac2a489ab2

[3] ABC News, updated October 2, 2026, “Suspect in FlyDubai incident was previously identified as security risk: Officials.” https://video.goodmorningamerica.com/news/story/suspect-flydubai-incident-previously-identified-security-risk-officials-136960488

[5] CBS News, Kathryn Watson, October 1, 2026, reporting on Trump’s provisional suggestion of Iranian involvement. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-flydubai-pilot-linked-to-iran/

[4] Flightradar24, Ian Petchenik, September 30, updated October 3, 2026, flight tracking and reproduced Flydubai statements. https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/flight-tracking-news/major-incident/flydubai-flight-to-tel-aviv-diverts-to-tabuk-amid-onboard-incident/

6.Editorial disclosure

This is opinion and reported analysis, not a finding of guilt or an independent criminal investigation. Several allegations rely on unnamed sources. Iranian direction, payments, deliberate airline assistance, a coordinated conspiracy and a selected skyscraper target have not been established by the material reviewed. References to those possibilities express the author’s hypothesis and demands for investigation. The suspect remains accused; official findings and any court determinations may change the account. Sources were reviewed on October 3, 2026.

 

A editorial by Nick Guarino

October 3, 2026

Reserve releases may buy time. My concern is what happens when that time runs out whe the reserves run out.

1.Opening

This is Nick Guarino. Today’s commentary is called “The Cat’s Out of the Bag.”

Claims about coordinated shortages, reserve exhaustion, and future military decisions are my suspicions and scenario gleamed from my sources.

Is it not amazing what you can do when you tell the story CNN forgot to report,

Now you know why I have been described as the most hated man on wall street.

A little reporting can change the equation. Once people start asking who has the barrels, who is releasing them, and who is profiting from the shortage, the oil story looks different.

2.Who benefits from the shortage

Uncle Sucker—the American consumer—has been getting suckered again.

We have been asking how the oil trade works when supplies tighten. Crude is one market. Diesel is another. You can have crude available and still have trouble producing or delivering the diesel people need.

The spread between the cost of crude and the price big oil gets for the refined products is called the crack spread. Refined fuel is where there is big money to be made and things gets interesting. In the scenario I’m disclosing you need to understand how a normal crack spread of, thirty-to-thirty-five-dollar spread becomes a hundred-and-fifty- or as much as a two-hundred-dollar spread on diesel.

You got to create shortages to achieve that kind of magic

Put Europe holding back reserves into that evil brew that they up till now they refused to release. Even though they promised a 100 million barrel release. A joke since we are short at least 10 million barrels a day. In ten days that release is gone. Add Russia withholding diesel as Ukraine drone targeted their refineries deep into Russia. To this evil mixture add due to Iranian attacks damaged Gulf refineries, and a little spice to the mix is disruption around Hormuz. Not to be left out of the fun is Chinese refiners keeping more fuel for domestic use and halting exports. .

That is my explanation for a energy squeeze that is coming….. After the elections.

The question: who benefits when fuel is scarce and the refining spread blows out?

The consumer pays. The sellers with available supply collect. Called big oil. Their profits are the most in the history.

Americans have been carrying too much of the burden while others held back barrels. People benefiting from high prices had little reason to hurry the relief. And the politicians are to stupid or too payed off to do anything about it.

3.The pressure brings a release

Now look at the two reports supplied for this commentary.

They describe an European agreement to release up to one hundred million barrels of emergency crude oil and diesel over four months, with a focus on diesel. They also describe American pressure, including the threat of a diesel-export ban, and a commitment against export bans.

That is crude and diesel combined. It is not one hundred million barrels of diesel alone.

According to the fuller report, diesel’s premium over crude temporally fell as traders anticipated the extra supply.

Ring, Ring. The phone wakes up.

“Wait a minute are you reporting. Europe has supplies sitting there while we’re taking the heat?”

“That’s the argument, Sir.”

“Then get them to release it. At least until after the elections”

Sir that is a temporary solution. The world is short 2 billion barrels of oil. And emergency reserves will run out completely in December

I’d like to think our disclosures helped. Our recent reporting caused should we say a lot of activity.

4.The barrels release will only buy a little time

Don’t make the mistake of treating an emergency release as a permanent supply source.

These are finite barrels. They can ease a crunch. They can give the market breathing room. They cannot keep replacing interrupted production forever.

One hundred million barrels spread over roughly four months works out to about eight hundred thirty thousand barrels a day. Useful relief—but the effect depends on how much supply is missing and how quickly those emergency barrels arrive.

My more severe scenario assumes a cumulative shortfall of a billion to a billion and a half barrels can only be solved if the straights are opened and Russian production is back on line.

I have also raised concerns about American strategic reserve located in salt-cavern which have reached supply limits, Chinese emergency supplies are exhausted, and European reserves could last only a matter of months.

I do have evidence establishing that America is about to reach cavern salt dome-damage threshold. China is down to a military minimum and Europe releasing its last reserves will soon peter out.

My warning is based on the realty that the world is consuming more oil than its producing. Global demand is 100 million barrels a day. And global production reaching market is at best 80 million barrels a day. Now add to the fact that emergency reserves are running out and total oil supplies have dropped by over 2 billion barrels.

And oil inventories are not recovering.

Well let me put it to you this way. We are in deep shit Batman!

A simpler question: what replaces the emergency barrels as they run out as the disruptions continues?

My expectation is that European releases could push oil prices a little lower, possibly into the ninety-dollar range, and temporarily ease pressure on winter diesel, heating oil, and other distillates. Key word is temporarily.

5.The election and Trumps next move

Now comes the political part of our discussion.

Lower fuel prices before an election are useful to the party in power. Trump is not personally on the congressional midterm ballot, but his party is. He can still claim credit: “Look, prices are coming down.”

My suspicion is that relief MAY buy him political time.

And my darker forecast is that, after the election, his calculation could change. I don’t think Trump wants to go out a loser. I think he wants a legacy that goes beyond restraining Iran’s nuclear program to defeating the regime itself.

In the blunt version of my scenario: he buys time, gets past the election, and then bombs the shit out of Iran.

When that happens, Iran only bid for survival is to play their last remaining card… retaliate against shipping and Gulf state energy infrastructure. A renewed or wider interruption around Hormuz could overwhelm the relief those reserve releases provided.

I interpret the Patriot deployments to gulf oil states described earlier as preparation for Iranian retaliation.

6.Russia opens the door a crack

And now Russia is opening the door a crack. Reuters reports on October 2 that Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak says Moscow will consider partially reopening diesel exports if production exceeds domestic demand. The ban for fuel producers remains extended through October. This is a conditional opening, not a confirmed restart.

My take: even the possibility of some Russian barrels coming back gives traders another reason to mark down the shortage premium. But an announcement does not fill a tanker. Watch the actual shipments. And available Russian export supplies are minuscule.

Here is a measure of the squeeze. S&P Global reported that Russian Black Sea diesel and gasoil export shipments fell to zero in the week ending September 24. Total Russian diesel and gasoil shipments were still 81,000 metric tons that week for domestic consumption. So the Black Sea stoppage was complete for that measured week;

And the scale of lost supplies out of Hormuz is enormous. EIA estimates petroleum-liquid flows through the strait averaged 21.6 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2025, then 4.9 million in the second quarter of 2026. That is a decline of about 77 percent in transit through that route. And for the 3^rd quarter lower still.

That is why I keep coming back to diesel. Crude reaching a buyer does not automatically mean a damaged refinery can deliver the fuel a trucker needs. Reserve releases and a possible partial Russian reopening can slightely ease the pressure. Sustained refinery production and delivered cargoes are what make the relief last. And I don’t see that happening.

7.What I am watching

So here’s the deal.

The emergency barrels may bring prices down a little for a while. People may mistake that relief for a lasting recovery in supply.

I think that could be a dangerous assumption.

If the barrels flow and regular supply recovers, the relief can hold. That has a snowballs chance in hell of happening.

If reserves are drawn down while the conflict expands, the next squeeze could be worse. And that is exactely what I am predicting.

That is the scenario I am warning about: a temporary lull, followed by a much larger shock.

The cat’s out of the bag. Now watch whether the barrels actually arrive. Watch what happens to refinery output and shipping. And watch the military decisions after the election.

SHOW ME THE FREGGING OIL! Not bullshit press releases!!!

This is Nick Guarino. That is my opinion.

8.Research references

Reuters, October 2, 2026 — Russia will consider partial lifting of diesel export ban in case of overproduction, Novak says. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-will-consider-partial-lifting-diesel-export-ban-case-overproduction-novak-2026-10-02/

S&P Global, September 29, 2026 — Russia’s Black Sea diesel exports fall to zero for first time on record. https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/092926-russias-black-sea-diesel-exports-fall-to-zero-for-first-time-on-record

EIA, September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook — historical Hormuz transit estimates. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf

Reserve-release discussion is based on the two news excerpts supplied by the author. The political forecast and imagined phone call are editorial speculation. Sources are reference material, not part of the spoken narration.

 

 

Military preparations and the approaching midterms raise the risk of escalation and a severe oil supply shock.

The warning signs that Trump is preparing for the final battle with Iran deserve attention.

My assessment is that President Trump is positioning the United States for a major escalation against Iran. The additional naval forces, reinforced defenses around Gulf energy facilities, and increasingly explicit threats give Washington more options for renewed attacks—and protection against the retaliation those attacks could provoke. A final decision has been made. It establishes that the military preparations are consistent with the coming attack. And the Trump final solution will become reality. The Associated Press reports that the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and additional ships carrying 10,000 sailors and Marines are heading toward the Middle East. Their arrival could expand the naval force available to Trump as he plans renewed strikes. Deployment, however, does not itself prove an order to attack: military movements can also support deterrence, negotiations, and force rotations.

The defensive preparations are especially revealing. Axios reports that the United States has sent additional Patriot batteries to Saudi Arabia and Qatar to protect important oil and natural-gas facilities. The reported purpose is to reassure those allies that their energy infrastructure will be defended if major operations against Iran resume. My interpretation is that Washington is preparing for the consequences of escalation as well as the opening strikes.

1.The election could change the calculation

The November midterms are congressional elections. Trump himself is not on the ballot, but his party’s control of the House and Senate is at stake. Before the election, an expanded war and higher fuel prices could hurt Republican candidates. Afterward, that immediate electoral constraint changes. AP reports that Trump has raised the possibility of renewed bombing after the midterms. That supports scrutiny of the timing; and it shows electoral considerations are part of his calculation for his military calculations.

If by some miracle the Republicans retain Congress, Trump could interpret the result as political encouragement. If they lose, he could decide to act aggressively despite the defeat. Since he has nothing to lose. That is my political assessment. It is NOT a overstatement to say he would have nothing to lose or that Congress could not constrain him. Congress retains funding and war-powers tools, although using them against a president can face substantial political and procedural obstacles. That trick has never stopped a US president from starting or fighting a foreign war.

I believe his legacy may also influence his calculation: preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon, while pursuing a more decisive defeat of the regime. Trump has previously spoken favorably about possible regime change. That supports considering the motive, without establishing a settled plan to overthrow the government.

2.Two alarming incidents—with responsibility unresolved

The Flydubai flight bound for Tel Aviv suffered a violent cockpit incident where a suicidal bomber attempted to take over the plane. Israels who are not passive people stopped him cold in his tracks and rescued the plane that was diverted to Saudi Arabia. Iranian involvement has not been officially established in the reporting reviewed for this report. But it is obvious that the terrorist was a radicalized suicide bomber using a aircraft 911 style as a weapon. Please note it is a obvious cover up by his Mohammad brothers. His name has not been released and the Saudis quietly in the noddle of the night released the co pilot to his home land Oman. I am sure the conclusion will be he was a lone wolf. Not true! He was a ISIS suicide bomber sent by Iran to kill Jews. Fly Dubi is in deep financial trouble. The war has slashed tourism and flight traffic by over half. 1 million Israeli passport holders fly with them each year. The last thinb they need to be revealed is that let a terrorist full of hatred for Jews to pilot one of their flights to Israel. Calling it a Iranian “9/11-style attack” is well supported by the evidence.

British authorities are also investigating suspected activity near RAF Fairford, used by American bombers. Reuters reports a further arrest of a British-Iranian dual national, while investigators examine possible foreign-state involvement. Iran denies responsibility. An arrest and a suspect’s nationality do not establish Iranian direction of a plot. If investigators establish Iranian responsibility in either case, the political pressure for retaliation could intensify.

3.The oil market is the pressure point

Iran does not need to defeat the American military to inflict serious economic damage. Threatening shipping and energy infrastructure has transmitted the conflict into soaring fuel prices worldwide.

Reuters reports that Iran is preparing for broader retaliation if large-scale attacks resume. Disruption of energy flows is one the only viable weapon Iran has left. It is regime in its death throws. Shutting down the Straights is its only remaining weapon.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024, roughly one-fifth of global petroleum-liquids consumption. Those are historical figures, todays traffic is les then 5 million barrels..

My forecast is a major escalation that removes substantial supplies for a sustained period could push oil to $150 a barrel. A prolonged, wider disruption in the Gulf states affecting shipping, refineries, pipelines and major export facilities could produce an extreme spike toward $200 or $250.

Those prices are my scenario estimates. The outcome would depend on lost volumes, duration, alternative routes, emergency inventories, replacement supplies, and falling demand as prices rise.

The central warning is this: the approaching election may change Trump’s incentives while the military buildup expands his options. If escalation follows, the consequences could reach far beyond Iran. The risk is substantial enough to take seriously. And if rght COULD make you millions on your lottery ticket trading!

Nick Guarino

Source references

AP: Carrier deployment
https://apnews.com/article/42c23e9af0333f4bc3b4f419cc3a603e

Axios: Patriot defenses
https://www.axios.com/2026/10/02/patriot-missiles-iran-war-saudi-arabia-qatar

AP: Trump and renewed bombing
https://apnews.com/article/af2443646cf96ff01b8b1becff3f3e0e

Reuters: Congressional war powers
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/congress-has-backed-iran-war-powers-resolutions-now-what-2026-06-09/

Reuters: Regime-change comments
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/second-us-aircraft-carrier-head-middle-east-amid-iran-tensions-us-media-reports-2026-02-13/

Sky News: Flydubai investigation
https://news.sky.com/story/flydubai-latest-flight-from-dubai-to-tel-aviv-lands-safely-in-saudi-arabia-after-brawl-between-pilots-13593603

Reuters: Fairford investigation
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-police-arrest-dual-uk-iranian-man-airbase-investigation-2026-10-01/

Reuters: Potential Iranian retaliation
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-readies-harder-retaliation-if-attacked-diplomacy-faces-long-odds-2026-10-01/

EIA: Historical Hormuz flows
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504

 

United States President Donald Trump told reporters on Thursday that Iran will either have to sign a “very fair” deal, or the country “won’t exist any longer,” adding that he has a decision to make and reiterating his comments from yesterday about potentially having to “blow them up.” The US president was also asked about Tehran’s potential involvement in the incident with the Flydubai passenger airplane that was forced to make an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia after a physical altercation between the pilots, to which he responded that Iran will be “hit very hard” if it is determined that it was behind the attack.

NN: Something big will happen in the next 3o days.

The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier is headed to the Middle East

The Pentagon is deploying an additional aircraft carrier and 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf, according to a US official, a move that gives American commanders more options if President Donald Trump chooses to escalate attacks on Iran.The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier left its San Diego home port on Sunday and is headed to the Middle East, the official said. When the Roosevelt arrives, the US could again have three carrier strike groups in the region, the same number as in late April, although a decision on maintaining that level hasn’t been made, the official added. The USS George Washington remains in the region but the George H.W. Bush has temporarily departed, according to the official. Before this year’s operations against Iran, the last time the US had three carrier strike groups in the Middle East was in 2003, when they supported the early phase of the invasion of Iraq. US Central Command, which oversees military operations in the Middle East, said in a statement that “we don’t discuss unit schedules for operational security reasons.”

Trump says US to win Iran war ‘maybe before’ election

United States President Donald Trump said Iran is ready to “fold” and that Washington may “win” the war before the midterm elections. “We’ll win very easily right now… I believe right after the election we’ll win, but maybe before the election, because they have 300% inflation,” Trump said during a speech in Denton, Texas. “Their air force has been totally extinguished, they have no anti-aircraft, they have some missiles, but we can handle it,” he added.

US said to deploy more Patriot missiles to S. Arabia, Qatar

The United States military recently sent two additional Patriot missile defense systems to Saudi Arabia and Qatar to help them safeguard critical oil and gas sites from potential regional threats, Axios reported, citing US officials. This deployment is meant to reaffirm Washington’s protection of key Gulf allies and their energy infrastructure in case US President Donald Trump decides to resume major military operations against Iran. Trump stated recently that Iran will either have to sign a “very fair” deal, or the country “won’t exist any longer,” warning of potential bombing operations in the coming period.

NN: I want to be clear here. Trump is gearing up for something BIG here. Even  if the lefty liberal fagot commies take the hous and the senate they will not be able to stp Trump. When he has got nothing to lose he has everything to gail. All i can say is bombs away and $150 oil here we come

 

A FlyDubai commercial flight number FZ1073 Dubai to Tel Aviv was rescued from near disaster over Israel by a brave pilot bleeding and a Israel Plumber returning from a vacation

Most of the 174 passengers were Jews and Israelis 166 of them heading to Israel, some returning home, others coming for a holiday. They were two and a half hours into the three hour flight.

The plane was approaching Tel Aviv Israels largest a city with a population of 4.3 million people. Behind the cockpit door sat Captain Smit Machchhar, an Indian national, and First Officer the Omani co pilot we will call him Mohammad since his real name has not been disclosed. As Dubai tries to play down the fact it was a terrorist attack ordered out of Iran. The Co Pilot was new he joined Fly Dubai, about eight months ago. The warning signs he was a radicalized terrorist were everywhere. He declined to shake hands with female colleagues because of his religious observance. And was described as praying “excessively.” He carried the Koran everywhere he went.

Captain Machchhar was looking forward to time off with his family. Copilot Mohammad was dreaming about his 72 virgins,

Mohammad had secretly joined ISIS. His intended victims were the Jewish passengers entrusted to his care and the people in downtown Tel Aviv. He imagined turning the aircraft into a weapon, repeating the horror of September 11 against another skyline. He had concealed that purpose behind the uniform of a man paid to bring people safely home.

Captain Machchhar noticed his silence. He asked a routine question and received no answer. When he turned, Rahman was already moving.

The attack came so suddenly that the captain had no time to understand the first blow. Then he felt the wound. Blood soaked his shirt. He tried to push his colleague away, struck the side of his seat, and fell against the cockpit floor.

Outside, the cabin innocent civilians remained unaware that they faced a near death life changing experience.

The reality check came when the aircraft dropped plunging more than 14,000 feet (4,300 meters) in less than 30 seconds. Thankfully the pilot unlatched the cockpit door. And a Israeli Plumber by the name of Yaniv Hayun rushed into the cockpit and pull up on the stick with seconds to spare. Yaniv said he watched the TV show Air Crash investigations and remembered shows where pilots pulled back on the controls to take a plane out of a dive.

The first scream came from the front of the aircraft. A second followed it. The cabin tilted, and a cup struck the ceiling before falling into the aisle. People reached for seats, for relatives, for anything that felt fixed.

Inside the cockpit, Mohammad had seized the controls. “Allahu akbar!” he shouted. “I will die a shahid!” His declaration accompanied an attempt to kill the passengers and people on the ground. His words made his intention unmistakable to the wounded captain.

The Captain tried to rise up his arm gave way. He could feel blood beneath his hand and hear cries through the closed door. The man who had attacked him was still within reach, but Captain Macchhar no longer had the strength to wrestle him away alone.

The captain understood what was happening. Mohammad wanted to kill the Jewish passengers helpless locked out of the cabin. There was nothing they could do. The aircraft had become a prison moving through the sky. Every person aboard depended on someone at the front stopping the descent.

Macchhar reached for the cockpit door release. Mohhamad saw him move and shoved him back. The captain struck the floor again. For a moment he lay still, his face against the cold surface, listening to passenger screams behind him.

He moved again.

Pain narrowed his world to the distance between his hand and the release. He could not save the aircraft from the floor. He could give someone else a chance to reach it. He stretched, dragged himself closer, and miraculously opened the cockpit door.

An Israeli passenger standing near the front saw the captain’s blood first. Then he saw the struggle and understood that the flight was being attacked from within.

There was no announcement telling him what to do. No time to appoint a leader. Behind him were people he loved. Ahead of him was the man trying to kill them.

Yaniv Hayun rushed through the doorway. He collided with Mohammad before he could turn fully toward the open door. Another Israeli followed. A third came forward from the aisle, stumbling as the aircraft moved beneath him. They crowded into a space too small for the fight unfolding inside it.

Mohmmad struck back. A passenger’s head hit the doorway. Blood ran down his face, and he wiped at it with his sleeve because he could no longer see clearly. Another man lost his footing, caught himself, and returned to the struggle. Nobody knew whether their effort would be enough.

In the cabin, a woman heard the fighting and called for people to stay back from the aisle. She tried to keep the path clear. A parent held a child so tightly that the child protested, and the sound of that protest was suddenly precious. Other passengers prayed. One man kept saying that he had to get home, as if repeating the words could hold the aircraft in the air. Others were reciting the Shema Israel a prayer commonly recited when Jews face death. Hear o Israel the lord is our GOD the lord is one. Blessed be the name of his glorious kingdom forever and ever.

At the front, the passengers fought to restrain the attacker. They had no rehearsed plan. They could see the wounded captain trying to move, and they understood that he needed room. They shouted to one another over the noise, their words breaking into commands and cries.

The Captain pulled himself upright. A Jewish passenger a dentist helped him. His shirt was heavy with blood, and his breathing had become shallow. He looked toward the controls and then toward the people holding Mohammad. One of them met his eyes and saw his radicalized hatred.

“We’ve got him,” the passenger said. He could not know whether that promise would hold. He made it anyway.

Fortunately relief pilots were on board they regained control of the aircraft. A second qualified pilot, traveling aboard as a passenger reached the cockpit and helped him. Together they began to recover the the badly damaged airplane. While the others kept Mohammad restrained. Please note they did not kill their attempted assign but rendered him first aid.

The descent eased. Nobody in the cabin trusted the change at first. People waited for another violent movement, another scream, another sign that the fight had been lost. Then the aircraft steadied. Someone began to cry from relief. Other’s cheered grateful to still be alive.

Surviving the dive did not mean the ordeal was over. The captain was wounded. The passengers were frightened. The attacker was still aboard, restrained and watched. The cripled aircraft full of people had to reach the ground safely, and every unfamiliar sound now made someone look up.

The crew spoke to the cabin. They told the passengers that control had been restored and asked them to remain seated. The announcement was brief. It gave people something they could understand and something they could do. It did not pretend that nothing had happened.

The flight turned back toward Dubai. The supporting pilot took over much of the flying while Captin Machchhar received help for his injuries. The captain stayed involved as his condition allowed. Other crew members moved through the cabin, checking passengers and trying to restore order without making promises they could not keep.

A woman asked whether the bleeding captain would live. A crew member told her he was being helped. A man wanted to call his wife. Another stared at his own hands, astonished to find blood on them. He had entered the cockpit so quickly that he could barely remember deciding to go.

The passengers who had fought Rahman did not feel like heroes. One was shaking too hard to hold a cup. Another kept returning to the same question: what if he had hesitated? The question had no useful answer, but it would not leave him alone.

As the crippled aircraft suffering severe tail damage continued toward Dubai, the cabin became quiet. People listened to the engines. They watched the crew. A child asked whether they were still going on vacation, and her father said they would talk about it when they landed. It was the first ordinary conversation he had managed since the dive.

At the front, the pilots concentrated on bringing everyone safely down. The imagined tower target in Tel Aviv was behind them. The attacker had failed to reach it. But the passengers would not feel safe until the wheels touched a runway and stayed there.

When the landing finally came, a few people applauded. Others were too exhausted to move.

The aircraft rolled to a stop.

The doors opened to emergency personnel. Medical workers reached the wounded captain, and authorities took the restrained attacker into custody. Passengers left the aircraft in uneven groups. Some walked quickly, desperate to put distance between themselves and the cockpit. Others stopped at the door and looked back.

The Brave pilot from India was taken for treatment. He had survived the attack, but the wounds were severe, and his recovery would take time. The passengers who had been injured in the struggle also received care. Nobody died. Survival did not erase the memories of the blood, the pain, or the hours when death had seemed unavoidable.

In a room away from the aircraft, people began calling home. Several could not complete their first sentence. A woman said her husband’s name, heard him answer, and started crying. A father told his family that their daughter was safe. He had to repeat it because the person listening could not believe him.

The Israelis who had entered the cockpit sat among the others. Their bloodstained clothes made them easy to recognize. Passengers approached them, shook their hands, embraced them, and sometimes stood beside them without finding any words at all.

One of the men kept saying that anyone would have done the same. A woman who had watched him run forward answered that she had not run forward. She thanked him. He lowered his eyes, unsure how to accept it.

The Dubai investigation has so far been a cover up. True investigation by the Israeli Mossad will examine Mohammad ISIS and Iranian connection and his intended target.

For the passengers waiting in Dubai, the immediate question was simpler: when could they go home? They had survived, but they were still far from the people who needed to see them.

Arrangements were made for another flight to Israel. Some passengers hesitated before boarding. The sight of another aircraft brought the fear back. They went together, watching one another, accepting help where they needed it.

This time, the destination would be a homecoming and heroes welcome in Israel…

In Israel, relatives waited beyond the arrivals doors. They checked their phones, looked toward the corridor, and asked whether the flight had landed. Information had reached them in fragments. Knowing someone was alive by telephone was different from seeing that person walk toward you.

Then the passengers appeared. A little girl saw her grandmother and ran. Her father followed more slowly, still carrying the bag he had packed for a holiday. The grandmother knelt and held the child against her. Nobody asked about the vacation.

A woman reached her husband and put both hands against his face. He tried to tell her that he was all right, but she was already pulling him close. Behind them, another family embraced a man whose shirt still bore the marks of the cockpit fight. His son looked at the blood and asked whose it was.

The man said they would talk later. For a while, there was only the work of finding one another. People called names across the hall. Suitcases stood unattended beside reunions. A passenger who had held himself together through

This is the ending of an attempted atrocity by Iran: an ISIS attacker defeated, the aircraft recovered, every life preserved, and wounded people given a chance to heal. The fear does not vanish at the arrivals hall. Some survivors will remember the dive whenever they board another flight. Others will wake hearing the scream that came from the cockpit.

But they will wake. The people the attacker intended to kill are home. Downtown Tel Aviv remains standing. Families that might have been waiting for terrible news are holding the people they love.

Iran has got to be stopped. Imagin what they will do if they get nukes!

The price of oil futures increased on Wednesday, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) soaring 2.5% as worries over the situation in the Middle East continued to persist. While some media reports suggested earlier that Washington was ready to offer sanctions relief to Iran to accelerate nuclear negotiations, United States President Donald Trump said this was a “hoax,” denying the claims. In addition, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the country would continue to target Iran and its enablers. WTI for November settlements surged 2.5% at 11:32 am ET, going for $91.33 a barrel. At the same time, Brent for the same month’s deliveries added 1.10%, selling at $103.72 per barrel.

NN: Its election season, prepare yourself for a blizzard of bullshit!

 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed on Wednesday that a pilot on a flydubai flight bound for Israel stabbed the other pilot and apparently tried to crash the aircraft. Netanyahu said an Israeli passenger told him that he and a crew member forced their way into the cockpit and subdued the pilot as he tried to sabotage the plane’s systems, and he hailed the bravery of the passengers and crew who stopped the assailant. The flight diverted and landed safely in Saudi Arabia, where the Israeli leader said the authorities are questioning the attacker. Israel is in contact with Saudi authorities to arrange the passengers’ return.

NN: These Hodges cannot help themselves. Wonder where the knife came from? It plunged so hard it damn near tore the tail off

Greedy oil companies are supplying US Diesel fuel and heating oil to Europe because they pay twice the price

• This means US prices are doubling

• US reserves of heating oil and diesel fuel are crashing

• Oil companies are the most profitable they have ever been

• Their is a real danger if winter is sever heating oil sullpies wll run out

Here is the inside story of how the manipulation works. A story Wall Street and oil companies are willing to do anything to stop this from getting out

Once again I find myself on the fireline. Attempts to hack our web sights. This Midnight phone calls. People follow us. Offers of cash. And I told them what I told Bill Clinton, The world gold council, Nasdaq, CME, NFA Wall Street and the rest of the scum bags… KISS MY ASS!

HERE IS THE INSIDE SKINNY:

US distillate inventories are at multi-year lows —

107.4 million barrels as of September 18, 2026, the lowest for this time of year in roughly 45 years, and 12% below the five-year average. The East Coast is 31% below norm.New England heating oil stocks hit an all-time low of 2.3 million barrels. US refiners are running at their highest sustained rates since 2018, and roughly half of Europe’s seaborne diesel now comes from the United States — about 520,000 barrels a day in August.

SUCKING America dry. AS YOU ARE SEEING US INVENTORIES TO RECORD LOWS. While European inventories are their highest ever

Europe, by contrast, sits on enormous emergency stockpiles. 380 million barrels Under EU Directive 2009/119/EC, every member state must hold stocks equal to at least 90 days of net imports or 61 days of consumption, whichever is greater — and at least one-third must be refined products. Germany held about 92 days as of June, Spain 97, the Netherlands 94. Petroleum Economist’s Paul Hickin puts combined European commercial and government diesel at about 350 million barrels, the largest such pile in the world. The European Commission said in September it sees no diesel shortage in the bloc, and that commercial and emergency stocks are sufficient.

Yet Europe will not draw those stocks to ease prices. IEA doctrine is explicit: the emergency system is “not a tool for price intervention or long-term supply management.” Releases are for severe physical disruptions, not for the market. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said Tuesday that Europe is among the most exposed regions — “if not the most exposed one” — because it imports “huge amounts of diesel” into winter, with Russia and the Gulf constrained and the United States now considering an export ban of its own. Asked whether the IEA had tried to talk Washington out of a ban, Birol said the agency advises members on what is in their interest and their allies’ interest. He did not claim a veto.

Washington is now testing that doctrine in public. Politico reported Tuesday that the White House may ask European governments to release diesel from strategic reserves as a way to skip a full US export ban. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum put the premise in one sentence: “It is a fact that the Europeans have a lot of diesel reserves.” An industry executive familiar with the talks said the motivation is “to stop a ban.” Reuters, the same day, reported the White House is already urging the EU to draw emergency diesel inventories and is particularly frustrated with France and Germany for delivering only a fraction of what they pledged to the March 400-million-barrel IEA release. Energy Secretary Chris Wright made the same charge: the US and Japan are delivering; several European members are not.

Germany’s answer is already on the record. A spokesperson for the Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy said the country is unlikely to agree unless there is an actual shortage. That is the official line. It is also selective. On 30 September, Economy Minister Katherina Reiche — in coordination with Chancellor Friedrich Merz — ordered state-owned Sefe to procure and inject 8 TWh of natural gas by 15 December because German gas storage is only about 58% full, well below the EU average of ~71% and far below last September. Reiche had first asked Sefe to buy “in small steps so as not to alarm the market.” That request is now an order. Berlin will use the state to fill gas tanks. It will not use emergency oil stocks to ease a diesel market it says is not in shortage.

The other side of the Atlantic is not waiting. Moscow on 30 September extended the ban on diesel, marine fuel, and gasoil exports by direct producers through 31 October (it had been due to expire the same day). The stated reason: a stable domestic market during harvest demand. The broader Russian fuel-export ban still runs to 31 January 2027; the jet-fuel ban to 30 November. Russia was the world’s second-largest diesel exporter after the United States. Those barrels are not coming back before winter.

The result is a one-way flow. American inventories drain to supply Europe. European emergency barrels sit untouched.

Russian product stays home. Americans pay elevated prices for a tightness that is in part policy-created: the molecule exists, in European tanks and in US export cargoes, but it is not being held for US winter demand. The asymmetry is structural, not accidental. The US has no 90-day product obligation, no refined-product strategic reserve, and no tool to redirect barrels home short of an export ban. Europe has the obligation, the barrels, and the legal right to release them — and chooses not to. Washington’s ask, Germany’s refusal, Birol’s warning, and Russia’s extra month of curbs all point the same way: if the winter is cold, the swing barrel is still an American one.

 

Diesel and Heating Oil: US vs Europe.

Prices. US national averages, excluding California: diesel $6.38 a gallon, heating oil $5.54. The diesel-to-heating-oil gap is about 85 cents. Europe’s weighted averages: diesel around $9.60, heating oil around $7.53, gap about $2.04. Germany: diesel $10.56, heating oil $7.35. France: diesel $10.24, heating oil $8.33. The key driver is taxes — Europe’s excise duties and VAT add roughly 40% to the pump price, while US diesel taxes are only about 60 cents a gallon. Wholesale spot at New York Harbor: heating oil around $5.00, diesel around $5.22

Inventories. EIA, week ending September 18, 2026: total distillate stocks 107.4 million barrels, down about 14% year-over-year, 12% below the five-year average — lowest for this time of year in about 45 years. By region: East Coast 31% below norm, the tightest. Midwest 11% below. Gulf Coast 2% above, normal. Rocky Mountain 10% below. West Coast normal. Northeast heating oil stocks: about 12.7 million barrels — only about 23 days of cover at normal winter draw. Europe, July 2026: EU middle distillates about 372 million barrels, down 5% from two years ago. EU diesel days of cover about 94 days, minimum 90. ARA hub gasoil hit a 4-year low in August.

Trade flows. US share of EU diesel imports: August 2026 about 50%, 2026 year-to-date about 32%, 2025 about 17%, July 2024 about 38%. Context: before the war, Russian diesel made up over 40% of Europe’s diesel imports. Gulf diesel exports to Europe are down about 75%. The Strait of Hormuz disruption is the main current constraint.

The arbitrage. Why US refiners sell to Europe: European diesel crack hit a record $74.66 a barrel in summer 2026. Gross arbitrage about $41 a barrel, roughly 98 cents a gallon. Domestic US crack about $28. Export premium about $13 a barrel more than selling at home.

On a 300,000-barrel cargo, that’s about $12.4 million IN EXTRA MOEY by sucking down US inventories and selling to Europe

Winter outlook, cold-winter scenario. Northeast heating oil: 12.7 million barrels on hand. Normal winter draw needs about 82 million barrels. Cold winter, plus 20% demand, needs about 99 million. Shortfall versus current stocks: about 86 million barrels. Import need to fill the gap: about 576,000 barrels a day.

Price scenarios for a Northeast household using 800 gallons a winter: at $3.50 a gallon, 2025 winter, $2,800. At $5.50, $4,400. At $6.50, $5,200. At $7.50, $6,000. At $8.50, $6,800. Extra cost at $7.50 versus $3.50: $3,200 per household. Region-wide Northeast consumer spending: at $7.50 a gallon, about $30 billion. At $3.50, about $14 billion. Extra cost about $16 billion. 2022 precedent: Northeast heating oil went from about $3.50 to $6.50 a gallon, up 86%, on similar stock levels — and this year the import pipeline is tighter, so the spike could be worse. Subjective scenario probabilities: mild winter about 30% — prices stay elevated but manageable. Average winter about 40% — $5 to $6 a gallon, some spot shortages. Cold winter about 25% — $6.50 to $8, rationing risk in the Northeast. Severe plus supply shock about 5% — crisis territory.

Wildcards. US export policy: if the US cuts EU diesel exports by 30%, about 54,000 barrels a day, Europe has nowhere to replace them — European cracks spike further, US stocks rebuild, but prices diverge sharply. Strait of Hormuz: if it reopens, Gulf barrels flow back and everything eases; if it stays closed, tightness persists. IEA strategic releases: 400 million barrels released since March, about a third hasn’t reached markets yet, and product releases take weeks to reach consumers. Demand destruction: at $8 a gallon, consumption typically falls 10 to 15%. The molecule problem: in the US, heating oil and diesel are the same molecule — truckers and homeowners compete for the same barrel, and in 2022 that pushed Northeast heating oil to record premiums over diesel.

Bottom line. Not a 1970s-style crisis — no lines at the pump. But a 2022-style price shock is the base case for a cold winter. Risk is asymmetric: upside price risk is much larger than downside. Structural tightness persists into 2027 regardless of weather. If the winter is mild, stocks rebuild and prices ease $1 to $1.50 a gallon by spring. The two things that change everything: US export policy and Hormuz.

If it’s a colder then normal winter their will be diesel fuel and heating oil shortages. Either way at a minim expect prices to double

DIESEL AND HEATING OIL

UNITED STATES vs EUROPE

30 September 2026 · Nick Guarino

US distillate stocks sit at a 45-year seasonal low while Europe is paying a record diesel crack and taking roughly half of its August diesel imports from the United States. Heating oil and diesel are the same molecule. A cold Northeast winter would force households and truckers to bid against each other for a barrel that is already leaving the Atlantic Coast for Europe.

PRICES

Retail

Market	Diesel	Heating oil	Gap
United States*	$6.38 / gal	$5.54 / gal	~$0.85 / gal
Europe (EU wtd.)	~$9.60 / gal	~$7.53 / gal	~$2.04 / gal
Germany	$10.56 / gal	$7.35 / gal	—
France	$10.24 / gal	$8.33 / gal	—

US figures are national averages excluding California. US heating oil is the last official reading, late March 2026.

Taxes and wholesale

Europe’s excise duties and VAT add roughly 40% to the pump price. US diesel taxes are only about $0.60 per gallon.

New York Harbor wholesale: heating oil ~$5.00, diesel ~$5.22. Heating oil is cheaper at wholesale in the offseason; the gap flips in winter.

INVENTORIES

United States (EIA, week ending 18 September 2026). Total distillate stocks: 107.4 million barrels — down ~14% year-over-year, 12% below the five-year average, and the lowest for this time of year in ~45 years.

Region	Vs. seasonal norm
East Coast	31% below (tightest)
Midwest	11% below
Gulf Coast	2% above (normal)
Rocky Mountain	10% below
West Coast	Normal

Northeast heating oil stocks: ~12.7 million barrels — only ~23 days of cover at a normal winter draw.

Europe (July 2026). EU middle distillates: ~372 million barrels, down 5% from two years ago. EU diesel days of cover: ~94 days (minimum 90). ARA hub gasoil hit a 4-year low in August.

TRADE FLOWS

US share of EU diesel imports: August 2026 ~50%; 2026 year-to-date ~32%; 2025 ~17%; July 2024 ~38%.

Before the war, Russian diesel made up over 40% of Europe’s diesel imports. Gulf diesel exports to Europe are down ~75%. The Strait of Hormuz disruption is the main current constraint.

THE ARBITRAGE

Why US refiners sell to Europe: the European diesel crack hit a record $74.66/barrel in summer 2026. Gross arbitrage is ~$41/barrel (~$0.98/gallon). The domestic US crack is ~$28/barrel, so the export premium is ~$13/barrel more than selling at home. On a 300,000-barrel cargo that is ~$12.4 million.

Fragility: if the crack falls to $40, net falls to ~$7/barrel and the trade stops making sense.

WINTER OUTLOOK — COLD-WINTER SCENARIO

Northeast heating oil on hand: 12.7 million barrels. A normal winter draw is ~82 million barrels; a cold winter (+20% demand) needs ~99 million. Shortfall versus current stocks: ~86 million barrels. Import need to fill the gap: ~576,000 barrels/day.

Price scenarios for a Northeast household (800 gallons/winter)

Retail price	Season bill
$3.50 / gal (2025 winter)	$2,800
$5.50 / gal	$4,400
$6.50 / gal	$5,200
$7.50 / gal	$6,000
$8.50 / gal	$6,800

Extra cost at $7.50 versus $3.50: $3,200 per household. Region-wide Northeast consumer spending at $7.50/gal is ~$30 billion versus ~$14 billion at $3.50/gal in 2025 — an extra ~$16 billion.

2022 precedent: Northeast heating oil went from ~$3.50 to $6.50/gal (+86%) on similar stock levels. This year the import pipeline is tighter, so the spike could be worse.

Subjective scenario probabilities

Case	Probability	Outcome
Mild winter	~30%	Elevated but manageable
Average winter	~40%	$5–6/gal, some spot shortages
Cold winter	~25%	$6.50–8/gal, rationing risk in the Northeast
Severe + shock	~5%	Crisis territory

Sources

EIA, European Commission/Eurostat, OPEC MOMR, Kpler, S&P Global, IEA, Insights Global, Bruegel. Exchange rate ~1.1355 USD/EUR. All figure