Posted on

CENTCOM confirms new US strikes on Iran

United States Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed on Tuesday that US forces started striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in Iran at 12:00 pm ET, following “attempted attacks” against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and US troops in the region. Axios reporter Barak Ravid earlier wrote on X that the US Air Force was striking Ira United States Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed on Tuesday that US forces started striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in Iran at 12:00 pm ET, following “attempted attacks” against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and US troops in the region. Axios reporter Barak Ravid earlier wrote on X that the US Air Force was striking Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz, citing US officials.

The confirmation came as multiple explosions were reported across southern Iran, including in Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, Sirik, Minab, and Qeshm. US President Donald Trump had previously threatened further attacks on Iran and was reportedly considering limited strikes.

nian targets around the Strait of Hormuz, citing US officials. The confirmation came as multiple explosions were reported across southern Iran, including in Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, Sirik, Minab, and Qeshm. US President Donald Trump had previously threatened further attacks on Iran and was reportedly considering limited strikes.

Posted on

Oil soars to 3-month high on Iran strike reports…. CENTCOM confirms new US strikes on Iran

Crude prices climbed to their highest level since mid-May following reports of renewed strikes on Iran on Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for October settlements surged 3.93% to $89.74 per barrel at 12:29 pm ET, while Brent for November deliveries skyrocketed 4.03% to $94.07 per barrel.

More to come…

CENTCOM confirms new US strikes on Iran

United States Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed on Tuesday that US forces started striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in Iran at 12 pm ET, following attempted attacks against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and US troops in the region.

More to come…

Posted on

Global Bond Selloff Sends Yields to the Highest Level Since 2008

Global bond yields climbed back to the highest level in almost two decades as rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns and investors ramped up expectations for interest-rate hikes. The move started on last Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh doubled down on his vow to finally tame inflation, and was extended this week as energy prices rose on renewed conflicts in the Middle East. The rate on 10-year Japanese government notes touched 3% for the first time since 1996, UK 30-year yields reached the highest since 1998 and the 10-year Treasury rate hit levels last seen January last year. The yield on a Bloomberg gauge of global sovereign bonds advanced for a fourth straight session on Monday, rising to 3.72%, the highest since mid-2008. “Markets are pricing in a higher path for short rates in the US, but also globally,” Idanna Appio, a portfolio manager and senior research analyst at First Eagle Investments, said on Bloomberg TV. “Investors are beginning to reassess what neutral policy rates look like and there has been a gradual increase in those.”

Yield on Global Bond Gauge Rises To Highest Since 2008

Global bonds have been under pressure for months, with worries over elevated government spending in markets like Japan, the UK and the US prompting investors to seek higher compensation to own longer-maturity debt. At the same time, a surge in borrowing by US technology firms to fund artificial intelligence is potentially crowding out demand for sovereign bonds. Meanwhile, fresh hostilities between the US and Iran have raised concerns about prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices higher. Several current and former officials have said they expect the Middle East conflict to drag on for months. “The direction of travel is going to be higher yields from here,” said Laura Cooper, global investment strategist at Nuveen. “Term premium likely has to be higher to compensate for this confluence of risks.” Traders are currently pricing an almost 70% chance that the Federal Reserve hikes rates by a quarter-point at its meeting this month, an increase from the European Central Bank is fully priced in for next week, while they’re all but certain the Bank of Japan will hike later this month. The bond selloff poses a fresh challenge for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who last month unleashed more measures to keep yields contained, as well as for President Donald Trump, with higher borrowing costs threatening to weigh on the economy heading into the November midterms. Pressure on bonds is unlikely to ease, if seasonality is any guide. September and October have been the worst months for the global bond index over the last decade, with the gauge losing more than 1% on average in each of the two months during the period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

NN; I am hoping to get some more strips over 6% in the October yield surge.
Posted on

WTI up 2.5% as US-Iran conflict bolsters supply woes

Crude oil prices continued to grow on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising by more than 2.5%, as investors’ concerns about the supply disruptions in the Middle East grew after the latest attacks exchanged between the United States and Iran, as well as US President Donald Trump’s comments about potential future attacks. WTI for October’s deliveries jumped by 2.58% to $87.97 per barrel at 5:34 am ET. Meanwhile, Brent for settlements in November grew by 1.87% to $92.18 per barrel at 5:38 am ET.

NN:  Well i guess the sanctions are not working. And get this the oil is NOT flowing…..
Posted on

US 10-year yield and 30-year highest since 2007 financial crises

Big, Beautiful Bond Yields — Ferguson Wellman

Yields on the 10- and 30-year United States treasuries rose on Monday amid the latest escalation in the Middle East conflict. The US targeted Iranian launchers, citing an imminent Iranian attack, with Tehran retaliating shortly after. US President Donald Trump stated again that his administration will “hit them hard,” sparking fears of a further deterioration of the hostilities.

The 10-year note yield grew by 3 basis points to 4.752% at 9:08 am ET, the highest level since January 2007. The 30-year bond yield increased by 4 basis points to 5.248%, while the 2-year note yield fell by 1.1 basis points to 4.339%.

NN: A good time to start operations if you have not done so already. See BlackMask Trade Recs titled: Zero Coupon Bond
Posted on

US and Iran Exchange Attacks for First Time in About a Month

  • The US and Iran exchanged strikes as American forces hit Iranian rocket launchers and Iran responded by firing missiles toward Jordan.
  • Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a missile-and-drone attack on US air bases in Jordan in retaliation for the American airstrike, but Jordan’s military intercepted the missiles.
  • The US attack was the first military action against Iran since late July, and any sustained return to hostilities risks driving up energy costs and stoking inflation.

The US and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in about a month as American forces hit Iranian rocket launchers and the Islamic Republic responded by firing missiles toward Jordan. Captain Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for US Central Command, said Sunday that Iran was preparing to launch rockets carrying mines into the Strait of Hormuz. He added that American “forces are monitoring the area closely and remain prepared to protect the free flow of commerce through this essential waterway.” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a missile-and-drone attack on US air bases in Jordan early Monday in retaliation for the American airstrike, state-run IRNA reported in a post on X. Jordan’s military intercepted eight missiles after they breached the kingdom’s airspace, destroying them before they caused any damage, the Jordan News Agency reported. The end of weeks of relative calm on the military front sent oil prices higher. Brent crude climbed 2.4% to above $90 a barrel. The US attack was the first military action against Iran since late July, as President Donald Trump has shifted toward an economic pressure campaign aimed at winning concessions from Tehran. Countries with ties to Tehran have so far shrugged off sanctions threats, and analysts have been underwhelmed by early US actions. Last week, the US military said it finished clearing mines from shipping routes in the strait, which previously carried one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

US allies, however, have privately warned that the strait was still likely mined.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said last week that Iran remains open to resuming diplomacy with the US, but argued that progress depends on Washington abandoning its pressure campaign. Following what he described as “creative discussions” with Qatar, a mediator in the conflict, Araghchi said in a social media post that progress “hinges on US understanding of one simple fact: Pressure doesn’t work.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised an “economic onslaught” against Iran and its trading partners. That includes China, which buys 90% of Iran’s oil. He said the White House would be discussing with allies their plans to stop buying Iranian products, but so far there have been no agreements to do so. Bessent told the Associated Press ahead of the Group  20 finance ministers meeting in North Carolina that the US would impose sanctions this week on a second bank that does business with Iran. Last week, Treasury proposed a rule that would sever the Emirati branches of Banque Misr, Egypt’s second-largest bank, from the US financial system. “This is going to be financial violence if we have to,” Bessent said.

NN:  Sounds pretty desperate to me. Remember the money ball oil is not  flowing. And prices are riseing and supplies are getting tighter by the day.
Posted on

Oil rises 2% amid renewed US-Iran tensions….. US strikes Iranian launchers on Larak Island

 

Prices of crude oil rose around 2% as renewed tensions between the United States and Iran fueled concerns over supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. The move followed US strikes on Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island and subsequent Iranian attacks targeting US forces in Jordan. At 11:33 pm ET, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for October settlement rose 1.85% to $84.99 per barrel, while Brent for November delivery gained 2.11% to $90.15 per barrel at 11:46 pm ET.

US strikes Iranian launchers on Larak Island

United States forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island on Sunday, Axios’ Global Affairs Correspondent Barak Ravid reported, citing a US official. “Earlier today, U.S. forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz,” Ravid quoted ⁠the official as ⁠saying. Separately, the IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency reported that an explosion was heard near Larak Island, but said its cause was unknown. The reported strike comes amid continued tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran maintains remains closed to vessels without its permission.

NN: I guess we could say the memorandum of peace is dead:

 

Posted on

Hormuz blockage is taking away 45 Million Bpd of Supply

  • Nearly half of global oil supply is produced in conflict-affected countries, with the Middle East disruption alone removing an estimated 5–7 million bpd from the market.
  • The bigger vulnerability is increasingly refined fuels, as Middle Eastern disruptions and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have tightened diesel and gasoline supplies while global refining capacity has fallen sharply.
  • The crisis is increasing dependence on U.S., Canadian and Venezuelan supply, but Canadian oil-sands maintenance and limited Venezuelan production growth could further tighten the market and intensify inflationary pressures.

Almost half of the world’s oil supply is produced in regions currently engaged in hot conflicts, Reuters reported this week. The situation raises questions about long-term oil supply security and the limits to diversification. The Middle East, of course, is the most obvious and most disruptive example. While oil prices on speculative markets have remained capped by trader optimism, the physical supply of the vital energy commodity has been severely compromised, leading to rationing and emergency releases from storage across the world. Meanwhile, Ukraine is pursuing a campaign of bombing Russian refineries with drones in a bid to persuade Moscow to make concessions regarding their conflict. So far, this has not happened, but the drone attacks have resulted in fuel shortages that have sent a ripple effect beyond the Russian borders because the country was the world’s second-largest fuel exporter after the United States. The Gulf states, by the way, were also, together, large exporters of refined fuels, which is why many analysts are now warning that the crisis in fuels is the one that needs to be addressed, not the situation in crude oil. Addressing it, however, would be quite difficult because the world’s refining capacity has shrunk considerably over the past decade or so, specifically in Europe, which is now struggling with the consequences of those developments, with diesel prices 70% higher than they were in February due to the continent’s dependence on imported fuels.. Over the past couple of months, the Middle Eastern conflict has also expanded, as it tends to happen in the region, with another major oil chokepoint under threat from attacks by the Yemeni Houthis. Indeed, attacks have already taken place, forcing shippers to re-route to alternative channels, such as the Suez Canal. This means longer journeys for tankers, which adds costs to the final price of the cargo, on top of the war premium already crushing demand in poorer countries. The latest reports from the Middle East once again pushed oil prices lower, saying that Iran and Oman were discussing joint management of the Strait of Hormuz. The discussions were perceived as a sign the waterway could be reopened soon, despite Iran’s threat to not let a drop of oil out of the Persian Gulf if the U.S. went forward with its latest idea of pressuring Iran economically, with more sanctions. Developments in Russia and Ukraine are no more optimistic. Ukrainian forces continue striking refineries on a daily basis, and while repairs have already brought back several facilities online, repairs take time, during which time fuel supply is constrained—and the ban on gasoline and diesel exports is still very much in place. All these events have increased the world’s reliance on U.S. crude and refined fuels, with the latter dependent on heavy crude supply from Canada and Venezuela. Now, this heavy crude supply may move lower. In September, Canadian crude oil production may drop by 300,000 barrels daily due to maintenance activities in the oil sands, Rystad Energy said this week. Usually, whenever such a seasonal disruption occurs, it gets offset with crude from storage. Unfortunately, crude in storage is also lower than usual—the lowest in 12 months, per the report. And maintenance cannot be skipped. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s oil exports are falling—moderately but enough to cause concern in those of a wary nature due to the reason for the fall. The July daily average stood at 1.16 million barrels, down from 1.2 million barrels in June. The reason, as reported by Reuters, was lower withdrawals from storage. This means that Venezuela was not exporting more crude because it was producing more but because it was withdrawing it from inventories. As these decline, so would exports until PDVSA and its new/old partners from the United States and Europe manage to speed up the production expansion.

According to Reuters, the countries involved in all these conflicts—and that includes Venezuela—last year produced 43% of the world’s oil, or 45 million barrels daily.

Now, supply from the Middle East is down by between 5 and 7 million barrels daily, according to various analyst estimates, and global refining capacity is down by 10% because of the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.

NN:  Houston we got a problem! You think?

Posted on

Oil Drops as Iran Diplomacy Gains

Oil extended declines as fresh diplomatic efforts helped renew optimism the Iran war would not escalate, while a US plan to ramp up economic pressure on Tehran spared the country’s trading partners from harsher measures for now.
Brent dropped nearly 4% to settle below $89 a barrel, the lowest level in over a week. West Texas Intermediate settled just over $82 after a spate of headlines helped ease traders’ concerns about a return to active fighting could further snarl shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Pakistan’s Army Chief concluded a one-day visit to Iran, with Iranian media saying the trip yielded valuable results. Iran and Oman, meanwhile, “discussed the importance of resuming navigation through the Strait of Hormuz,” according to a joint statement. Investors have largely shrugged off US plans announced Monday to ratchet up economic pressure on Iran as President Donald Trump seeks to wind down the war. Washington stopped short of imposing secondary sanctions on nations dealing with Tehran, including China, the top buyer of Iranian crude. Countries will face a specific timeline to shut down links with Iran or face unilateral punishment, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. While the Treasury added new restrictions on around 60 entities, including Tehran’s oil-revenue generation networks and shadow fleet vessels moving its petroleum products, Bessent’s latest measures fell short of expectations. “There was a lot of buildup around the announcement but what we got was more a warning about where policy is heading than an immediate shock to physical supply,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Chicago-based Karobaar Capital LP. “Until secondary sanctions start changing who can buy, ship or even finance Iranian crude, I don’t think traders have much reason to add another geopolitical premium.”
Prices dipped further on Tuesday after the New York Times reported the US would be returning diplomats to Middle East embassies, suggesting Washington did not anticipate ramping up military action.

Crude is still up around 45% this year as the war – now in its sixth month – continues to disrupt the shipping of oil and refined fuels out of the Middle East. The impact has been particularly acute in fuel markets, which have also faced a hit from Ukrainian attacks on Russian refiners, pushing premiums to crude to stratospheric levels.

Russia is discussing extending its ban on diesel exports for another month as Ukraine continues to strike the nation’s refineries at a record pace, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. “Positioning has moved from heavily short to more long, leaving the market vulnerable to profit-taking, while sanctions came in softer than feared and the diplomatic track appears to be gaining momentum,” said Oil extended declines as fresh diplomatic efforts helped renew optimism the Iran war would not escalate, while a US plan to ramp up economic pressure on Tehran spared the country’s trading partners from harsher measures for now. Brent dropped nearly 4% to settle below $89 a barrel, the lowest level in over a week. West Texas Intermediate settled just over $82 after a spate of headlines helped ease traders’ concerns about a return to active fighting could further snarl shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan’s Army Chief concluded a one-day visit to Iran, with Iranian media saying the trip yielded valuable results. Iran and Oman, meanwhile, “discussed the importance of resuming navigation through the Strait of Hormuz,” according to a joint statement. Investors have largely shrugged off US plans announced Monday to ratchet up economic pressure on Iran as President Donald Trump seeks to wind down the war. Washington stopped short of imposing secondary sanctions on nations dealing with Tehran, including China, the top buyer of Iranian crude. Countries will face a specific timeline to shut down links with Iran or face unilateral punishment, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. While the Treasury added new restrictions on around 60 entities, including Tehran’s oil-revenue generation networks and shadow fleet vessels moving its petroleum products, Bessent’s latest measures fell short of expectations. “There was a lot of buildup around the announcement but what we got was more a warning about where policy is heading than an immediate shock to physical supply,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Chicago-based Karobaar Capital LP. “Until secondary sanctions start changing who can buy, ship or even finance Iranian crude, I don’t think traders have much reason to add another geopolitical premium.” Prices dipped further on Tuesday after the New York Times reported the US would be returning diplomats to Middle East embassies, suggesting Washington did not anticipate ramping up military action. Crude is still up around 45% this year as the war – now in its sixth month – continues to disrupt the shipping of oil and refined fuels out of the Middle East. The impact has been particularly acute in fuel markets, which have also faced a hit from Ukrainian attacks on Russian refiners, pushing premiums to crude to stratospheric levels. Russia is discussing extending its ban on diesel exports for another month as Ukraine continues to strike the nation’s refineries at a record pace, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. At the same time, large volumes of crude supplies continue to transit Hormuz with their satellite signals turned off. Those volumes are in millions of barrels a day and have helped generally keep a lid on prices that had been expected to soar at the outset of the conflict. “Positioning has moved from heavily short to more long, leaving the market vulnerable to profit-taking, while sanctions came in softer than feared and the diplomatic track appears to be gaining momentum,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “For now, more diplomacy, fewer signs of military escalation and improving flows are taking some of the geopolitical premium out of crude.” Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “For now, more diplomacy, fewer signs of military escalation and improving flows are taking some of the geopolitical premium out of crude.”

NN: Forty years of diplomacy  and what do we have to show for it. Do you really buy into this snake oil?