30-year US Treasury yield climbs to fresh 2002 high

Yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond reached a new high level since 2002 on Monday as investors digested the latest report by the ISM, which showed that services sector activity expanded in September, albeit at a slower pace, which could convince the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher. Data revealed a sharp rise in prices paid by businesses, with the Price Index clocking in at 74%, making it the highest figure since July 2022, seemingly raising concern that inflationary pressures might be growing. The Federal Reserve will share minutes from its policy meeting this week that could give a clearer insight into its decision to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point last month.

The yield on the 30-year bond jumped 6.2 basis points to 5.691%. The return on the 10-year Treasury note increased 6.0 basis points to 5.337%. The yield on the 2-year bond added 2.5 basis points to 4.850%.

NN: Hopefully we will soon get our next average point on our strips. At least 50 bases points higher. Please  note if you go into our bond info page the quotes are updated daily. As our the charts and our bond calculator is working. 

BURNING YOUR FURNITURE TO HEAT YOUR HOME

 

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The energy cushion is disappearing. This winter the danger may no longer be only what fuel costs — but whether enough fuel is available where it is needed.

RATIONING!

A Nick Guarino Opinion Piece

1.The Warning

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser has warned that global oil inventories have become “scarily thin” and that emergency releases can buy time but cannot repair the underlying imbalance. His warning that depleted inventories could take as long as two years to rebuild is the foundation of this editorial: emergency stocks are a bridge, not new production.

2.Five Data Points the Market Cannot Ignore

1. Emergency reserves are being consumed.

The G7 and partners have discussed making up to 100 million barrels of emergency crude and diesel available over roughly four months. Some volumes overlap with previously pledged emergency releases. Even the full headline amount averages only about 830,000 barrels per day over four months. A sick joke

2. Diesel and heating oil are the pressure point.

Crude in storage is not diesel in a truck or heating oil in a home. Refining capacity, middle-distillate inventories and transportation determine whether crude becomes usable fuel. The current squeeze in refined products is therefore more important to households and transportation than the crude headline alone.

3. LNG is not an easy escape valve.

Supplied Bloomberg/Kpler reporting says LNG flows through Hormuz remain more than 75% below prewar levels despite a rebound. Before the war, roughly three LNG cargoes per day regularly exited the Strait; September was estimated at 21 cargoes for the entire month.

4. Winter changes the equation.

A colder-than-normal winter would increase heating demand while diesel, heating oil and LNG markets are already strained. Our forecast is not that the world literally exhausts every gallon, but that regional shortages could become severe enough to produce rationing and forced conservation measures.

5. Rebuilding the cushion will take years.

Even if Hormuz fully reopens, the inventories already consumed still have to be replaced while the world continues meeting daily demand. Nasser’s two-year warning makes the duration of the problem as important as the immediate shortage.

3.HERE’S HOW BIG OIL IS SCREWING YOU

The story they don’t want you to know

This is Nick Guarino once again telling you the story Wall Street, Big oil and politicans are hiseing from you. The underlying economic point is straightforward: stressed overseas markets will place a much higher value on exportable U.S. energy than the domestic benchmark price.

Using the market figures discussed for this report, U.S. Henry Hub natural gas was roughly $3 per MMBtu while stressed European gas was around $25 per MMBtu. A rough all-in LNG delivery cost in the neighborhood of $8–$10 per MMBtu can leave an indicative gross arbitrage opportunity of roughly $15–$17 per MMBtu in an unusually stressed $25 European market. The exact profit captured by any company depends on contracts, hedges, liquefaction fees, shipping, ownership and other costs. But as you can see the profits are hugh to take natural case from the US market and ship it to the hungry markets of Europe and Asia.

In my opinion producers are deliberately withholding gas from Americans. International demand acts like an economic magnet on every incremental molecule of U.S. gas capable of reaching an LNG export terminal. At the margin, American consumers increasingly compete with European and Asian buyers.

The same international pull matters in refined products. When diesel and heating oil command exceptional premiums overseas, export economics compete with domestic demand. Every refiner that can chooses foreign customers over Americans; it is that globally traded fuels move toward markets willing and able to pay the highest netback, subject to contracts, logistics and regulation. They are pushing things to limit and weell do so till they get caught. Whistle blower anyone?

4.Diesel, Heating Oil and Natural Gas: Three Pressure Points

Diesel powers trucking, farming, construction and industry. Heating oil competes for closely related middle-distillate refinery output. Natural gas increasingly participates in a global LNG market. A simultaneous squeeze across all three leaves households, transportation and industry with fewer easy substitutes.

Our editorial forecast is as physical shortages become severe enough this winter, governments could turn to rationing or conservation measures rather than allow critical systems to fail. That could mean priority allocations for essential users and appeals or mandates to reduce heating demand. A specific 60°F thermostat rule has not been announced; it is an illustration of the kind of conservation policy that could become politically conceivable in an extreme shortage. And severe penatlies will be enacted for “overusers.”

5.The Traditional Fallback Is Not Universally Available

Wood heated homes even caves and cooked food for millions of years. The liberal commie lefties are doing all in their (wood is the ultimate renewable fuel is no longer a universal fallback. Some U.S. jurisdictions restrict wood burning sighting air-quality issues, regulate the installation of wood-burning appliances and our prohibiting the use of existing fireplaces. Shit the greenewinnies are prohibition fireplaces and wood burning stoves in new construction. New York City has not generally banned fireplaces, but its building policies increasingly limit onsite fossil-fuel combustio. The broader point is that modern households cannot always switch freely among wood, oil, gas and electricity when one fuel becomes scarce. It ain’t no accident!

6.Europe’s Shortage Will Reach Back Into America

U.S. LNG terminals draw natural gas from the domestic pipeline system, liquefy it at about −260°F (−162°C), and load it onto ships. And sell it to overseas buyers who pay many multiples of the U.S. benchmark, export demand will drive higher U.S. gas prices for consumers and tighter regional balances. America possess enormous underground gas resources and still experience sky high prices and infrastructure constraints at the consumer level.

The point is simple: Europe’s energy shortage does stay in Europe. Europe and Asia buyers bid for U.S. LNG, and that competition transmits global scarcity back into the American market. And raises prices for U.S. Consumers.

7.Our Forecast: Rationing, Global Supply Shortages

Our prediction is not that every tank runs dry. It is that the remaining cushion becomes thin enough that governments and distributors will have to decide who gets fuel first as they bid agaist each other rasing prices to the moon. Diesel, gasoline, heating oil and natural gas would not necessarily be rationed everywhere or simultaneously. But if winter is colder than normal and the present disruptions persist, rationing and aggressive conservation become risks you need to take seriously.

Imagine heating-oil distributors allocating deliveries, truckers and farmers competing for middle distillates, utilities facing exceptional gas demand, and governments preserving part of their strategic inventories for national-security needs. At that point price is no longer the only issue. Availability is the issue.

BURNING YOUR FURNITURE TO HEAT YOUR HOME

The phrase is intentionally stark imagery, not a prediction that families will literally be forced to burn furniture. But at the prices they are about to pay burning their furniture to heat may be cheaper. After years of assuming abundant interchangeable energy, and the greenieewinnes sucessful in shuting down drilling and refining consumers may discover that their is a rice to pay for climate change stupidity. A very very high price indeed. And the alternatives they expected are constrained at the same time.

8.Sources / Source Material

Bloomberg — G7 and partners: planned release of up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel stocks; supplied in this conversation.

Bloomberg / Energy Intelligence Forum — Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser: inventories described as “scarily thin”; emergency releases buy time; replenishment could take up to two years; supplied in this conversation.

Bloomberg and Kpler tanker-traffic data — LNG traffic through Hormuz rebounding but remaining more than 75% below prewar levels; supplied in this conversation.

Reuters shipping-data reporting referenced in the supplied LNG article — September LNG shipments through Hormuz remained well below prewar levels.

U.S. Energy Information Administration — U.S. LNG exports, Henry Hub pricing dynamics, and the relationship between export demand and domestic natural-gas markets.

U.S. EPA / state and local air-quality agencies — wood-burning appliance standards and local no-burn restrictions.

New York City building rules — restrictions on onsite fossil-fuel combustion in new construction.

Editorial disclosure: Forward-looking statements concerning shortages, rationing, conservation measures and winter conditions are Nick Guarino’s opinion and risk assessment, not established forecasts or announced government policies.

— Nick Guarino

100 MILLION EU BARRELS WON’T SOLVE THE COMING GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS

 

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An Editorial Analysis of the G7 Emergency Oil and Diesel Release

By Nick Guarino

The Headline Sounds Big. The Arithmetic Is Not

The Group of Seven and its partners have agreed to release 100 million barrels of emergency diesel, crude oil and other petroleum stocks through the International Energy Agency over four months, with diesel front-loaded into the first 20 days. The announcement follows intense pressure to contain fuel prices by the US and a G7 commitment to avoid energy-export restrictions among members.

One hundred million barrels sounds enormous. Spread across roughly four months, however, it averages only about 830,000 barrels per day. That is not meaningful emergency supply release, when its measured against a global oil supply that has already been devastated by historic disruptions, extraordinary inventory draws and severe refined-product shortages in the billions of barrels..

Our conclusion is straightforward: the release can buy a little time and exert a little downward pressure on prices temporarily. It cannot by itself repair the growing physical supply problem.

Five Data Points the Market Should Not Ignore

1. The 100-million-barrel release is less than one million barrels per day.

At an average of roughly 830,000 barrels per day over four months, the announced release is incredible small relative to the scale of current disruptions. Reuters reported the G7 agreement on October 2, including a token early release of diesel.

2. The real global deficit is smaller than the headline Hormuz loss – but still enormous.

The IEA reported in September that Hormuz flows averaged only 7.6 million barrels per day in August, 13.1 million barrels per day below prewar levels, with cumulative export losses through the waterway are approaching 2.8 billion barrels. But the IEA also stressed that alternative routes, lower demand, non-Gulf supply and inventory releases which are running out have temporarily offset some of that headline loss. Its estimated global oil balance deficits were about 2.2 million barrels per day in the second quarter and 1.7 million barrels per day in the third quarter.

3. Emergency Inventories have been doing the work that production and trade could not.

The IEA said observed global oil inventories were 507 million barrels lower than at the onset of the war by September, after IEA member countries had already released more than 300 million barrels of emergency stocks. Earlier, its August Oil Market Report recorded a 410-million-barrel decline since the war began, averaging about 2.7 million barrels per day.

4. Russia is intensifying the refined-products problem.

Reuters reported that Russia extended its diesel export ban through the end of October as Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted refinery operations. S&P Global reported that Russian Black Sea diesel and gasoil exports fell to zero for the first time on record in the week ending September 24. That does not mean all Russian diesel exports were zero: total Russian diesel/gasoil shipments that week were about 81,000 metric tons, almost half the prior week’s level.

5. The Hormuz highly politicized recovery numbers deserve careful interpretation.

Independent Kpler estimates cited by Reuters put September Middle East crude exports at 16.328 million barrels per day and flows through Hormuz at about 9.719 million barrels per day. Those figures are not merely ship counts, but neither are they an audited barrel-by-barrel tally. Reuters noted that the estimates exclude vessels operating without active tracking systems. The market should therefore distinguish between credible commercial estimates and perfect measurement in a wartime shipping environment.

The Critical Distinction: Crude Oil Is Not Diesel

The market has focused heavily on whether crude tankers are again moving through Hormuz. But a recovery in crude exports does not automatically restore diesel, gasoline, jet fuel or heating-oil availability.

The IEA reported that refinery throughput remained nearly 5 million barrels per day below year-earlier levels in July, while seaborne product trade was down 3.8 million barrels per day year over year. It specifically identified continuing Middle East product-export disruptions and attacks on Russian refineries as constraints on refinery activity.

That is why emergency crude oil releases alone cannot solve the problem. The world needs functioning refineries, usable trade routes, available tankers and sufficient inventories of the refined fuels consumed by transportation, agriculture, industry and heating.

Hormuz: Skepticism Is Justified, but So Is Precision

We believe investors should be skeptical of sweeping claims that the Strait of Hormuz problem has been solved by US military escorted tanker movements. The latest independent estimates show a substantial recovery in crude movements, but they remain tracking- and model-dependent estimates produced in an unusually opaque wartime environment.

At the same time, it would be incorrect to dismiss the recovery figures as nothing more than U.S. government press releases or simple vessel counts. Reuters has cited Kpler’s independent cargo-flow estimates, while also acknowledging the blind spot created by ships operating without active tracking systems.

Our position is therefore narrower and stronger: the exact volume moving through Hormuz cannot be known with perfect precision in real time, and improving crude flows should not be confused with normalization of the broader refined-products market. BUT record refinery utilization rates and record high crack spreads and record low distillate inventories and record high Diesel fuel prices reveal the untold truth. We are running out!

Russia Adds a Second Supply Shock

The Russian situation compounds the Middle East disruption. Ukrainian attacks have forced significant cutbacks at major Russian refineries, while Moscow has restricted diesel exports to protect domestic supplies. Reuters reported in September that six major Russian diesel-producing refineries had cut or halted output after drone strikes.

The historically unusual collapse of Black Sea diesel shipments illustrates the severity of the pressure. But precision matters here too: Black Sea diesel exports reached zero for one reported week; total Russian diesel exports did not. But it does not bode well for future supplies coming out of the black sea. Especially when viewed in light of Ukrainian threat and ability to continue drone attacks on Russian refineries and export shipping

Winter Is the Test

The emergency releases arrive as the Northern Hemisphere moves toward fall harvest season. And the start of winter time record demand for heating oil. And peek demand time of the year for diesel, and other middle distillates which are essential to trucking, agriculture, construction, industry and seasonal heating demand.

Emergency stocks can bridge a temporary interruption. They cannot permanently replace damaged refining capacity, restricted exports or disrupted trade routes.

That is the central danger we believe markets are underestimating.

Our Editorial Assessment

The G7 action may succeed in its immediate objective: send a reassuring signal, putting some downward pressure on prices and demonstrate that governments are acting. I regurad is as little more than a publicity stunt. The numbers are minuscule compared to seasonal deamnd and total supply disruptions.

But the timing also carries an obvious political dimension. President Trump and his administration are confronting extraordinarily high fuel prices immediately ahead of the November U.S. midterm elections. Reuters reported that the agreement followed U.S. pressure on Europe to release emergency stocks. It is obvious to me electoral considerations are driving political decisions. In fact; our editorial assessment is that the political incentive for visible action before the election is unmistakable. And meaningless to solving the coming winter supply shortages.

The danger is that a successful headline is mistaken for a successful solution.

A 100-million-barrel release spread over four months cannot come close to compensate for continuing production, refining and trade disruptions measured in millions of barrels per day. Nor can governments repeatedly draw strategic inventories without reducing the buffer available for the next emergency. In fact its worse the untold truth is emergency supplies are running out globally!

The question investors should be asking is not whether these releases can knock several dollars off today’s price of a barrel of oil. They can. But in a $100 oil market a potential temporary $10 drop is meaningless. In fact it is a buying opportunity. Especially since we anticipate $150 oil by years end.

The question is what happens when all the emergency barrels have been consumed and winter demand is still there. And supplies continue to be disrupted

If Middle Eastern refined-product exports remain constrained as we expect, and Russian refining and exports remain impaired, and inventories continue to decline, the world could enter winter with dangerously thin fuel buffers.

That is why we regard the latest announcement of G7 emergency releases as a sick joke – not a resolution of the energy crisis.

And when the publicity surrounding the emergency releases fades, the physical market will still have to answer the only question that ultimately matters:

Where will the replacement barrels – and especially the replacement diesel – come from?

Sources

1. Reuters, Oct. 2, 2026 – G7 countries agree on release of 100 million barrels of diesel and oil stocks after U.S. pressure.

2. International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report, Aug. 12, 2026 – global supply, refinery throughput and observed inventory data.

3. International Energy Agency, September 2026 analysis – Hormuz flows, cumulative export losses, global oil-balance deficits and emergency stock releases.

4. Reuters, Sept. 28, 2026 – Kpler estimates for Middle East crude exports and Strait of Hormuz flows; tracking limitations.

5. Reuters, Sept. 30, 2026 – Russia extends diesel export restrictions through October.

6. S&P Global Commodity Insights, Sept. 29, 2026 – Russian Black Sea diesel/gasoil exports fall to zero for the first time on record.

7. Reuters, Sept. 15, 2026 – refinery cutbacks following Ukrainian drone attacks on major Russian diesel-producing facilities.

Editorial analysis by Nick Guarino | October 2026

 

Score One For The Good Guys

 

 

This is one of the best videos i have seen yet. Israel narrowly adverted a 911 style terrorist attack.  Fumy the Israeli Jews are presented as a people who  commit  crimes against humanity. I never saw a Jew suicide bomber, never saw Israel sanction hijackings or Jihad. Never saw Jews with gopro vides strapped to their head videoing the rape and torture of women children and innocent civilians. Love the Jew hate the Jew it does not matter these people are survivors. If you want to  worry about something worry  about the Hodges because the Jews are coming for them.

The Flydubai Attack and the Warnings That Came Before It

 

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Hamam could face a firing squad
By Nick Guarino
Opinion and reported analysis | October 3, 2026

1.The warning that demands answers

A man taken out of Oman Air cockpit was pulled from flying in 2024 after extremist materials were found and moved to an administrative role. How to he ended up in FlyDubao cockpit, on a flight full of Jews to Israel. He attacked the captain with an axe and the aircraft plunged 17,000 feet in 30 seconds. Before being save by the brave pilots and some kick ass Israels who never give up without a fight.

The public deserves a full account of how this happened. And why those earlier warnings were igmored and bu who/

A statement about safety being the highest priority will not answer that question.

The terrorist now has a name: Hamam al-Hammami, an Omani national identified by sources speaking to AP, ABC News and other news organizations. Reuters reported on October 3 that neither the airline nor Emirati authorities had publicly identified him. His name emerging through reporting is proof FlyDubai has something to hide.

ABC News reports that officials say extremist material was found in his possession in 2024 while he was a trainee co-pilot at Oman Air, and that he was suspended from flying but retained in an administrative role. AP also reports an earlier grounding over extremist concerns before Flydubai hired him. These are serious allegations attributed to sources. The reported warning date is 2024.

2.The captain who opened the door

Captain Smit Machchhar, an Indian pilot, was badly wounded. According to his account reported by AP, he used his remaining strength to unlock the cockpit door. That gave people outside a chance to intervene. Passengers subdued the attacker, and other pilots aboard helped recover and land the aircraft. [2]

He was one tough son of a bitch. Whatever the attacker expected, the captain fought back. Opening that door while injured was an act of extraordinary courage and inner strenth while bleed to death from two blows with aa ax.. The passengers who rushed forward also chose to act at a moment when hesitation could have been fatal.

The Israeli passengers who intervened deserve recognition as individuals who helped save everyone aboard. Their courage stands on its own. For me, the Israel-bound route makes the possibility of an antisemitic motive an urgent investigative question.

3.The flight sequence

The following times are UTC on September 30, 2026, from Flightradar24. They describe recorded aircraft movements and signals; they do not timestamp every action inside the cockpit. [4]

03:05 — Flight FZ1073 departed Dubai for Tel Aviv and climbed to 34,000 feet.

05:21 — A steep descent began, followed by a sharp climb and another steep descent.

05:28:48 — The aircraft transmitted 7700, the general emergency code.

By 05:33 — Its altitude had centered around 15,000 feet, with continuing fluctuations.

05:35 — It changed to 7500, indicating unlawful interference. After briefly entering Jordanian airspace, it turned back and headed toward Tabuk.

Approaching Tabuk — The aircraft returned to 7700. Flightradar24 reports a safe landing; its last received ADS-B message was at 06:58.

My suspicion and the evidence needs to be uncovered

I believe we have narrowly escaped a mass murder on the scale of 9/11. To me, the survival of this Israel-bound flight is a miracle earned by a wounded captain and the people who refused to surrender. My firm suspicion is that the attacker did not act alone and that Iran may have orchestrated the attempt.

Lockerbie comes to mind as a comparison about the possibility of a wider operation behind an aviation attack.

A 9/11-style attack with a Tel Aviv skyscraper as a target. Trump suggested an Iranian link on October 1.

ABC reports that sources say the suspect indicated an intention to crash the aircraft in Israel. That is a significant reported allegation.

I am skeptical that an earlier extremism warning could disappear between employers without a serious failure somewhere.. Knowing complicity by airline employees is obvious here.

The hiring file, former-employer communications, security referrals and crew assignment records should answer who knew what, and when. Investigators should preserve and authenticate the relevant social media accounts. AP reports an Instagram account was deleted on the flight day.

4.Custody and the next questions

The UAE prosecutor general has characterized the incident as an attempted terrorist attack, according to Reuters. The suspect was transferred from Saudi Arabia to the UAE; this was a custody transfer. [1, 3]

ABC reports that Israeli officials are expected to be involved in questioning. Expected participation does not mean questioning has already occurred. Investigators must establish any connections through records, corroborated testimony and forensic evidence. [3]

Flydubai says it supports the official investigation and has suspended its Tel Aviv operations at the authorities’ request. Its response belongs in the record alongside the hard questions. Commercial embarrassment is a possible incentive for defensive messaging; And I suspect a cover up at the highest level [4]

My demand is straightforward: explain how a man reportedly removed from flying over extremism concerns reached that cockpit. Explain what was checked. Explain what was missed. And establish whether anyone helped him. The captain and the people who intervened saved lives. The institutions responsible now owe them answers.

What we know about this son of a b_ _ _ _h so far:

Hamam al-Hammami, twenty-nine, is an Omani national reportedly born in the UAE to an Omani father and a Syrian mother. Their names aren’t verified. He completed an aviation management degree by distance learning at Buckinghamshire New University in 2023. Officials cited by ABC say Oman Air removed him from flying in 2024 over extremist material. Royal Air Maroc confirms three months of theoretical training in 2025, and no job offer. An Israeli official tells CNN he worked for Flydubai about eight months before the September 30th, 2026 cockpit attack. AP reports he traveled to Syria, but without dates or contacts. His home village, address, marital status, and siblings are unconfirmed. Once the Mossad get a hold of him and ups the voltage we will learn a lot more. Unless they do a Jeffery Epstein number on him while in custody

As a point in fact he faces the death penalty

Under UAE Federal Law: Article five, subsection two, aircraft seizure causing injury, and article six, subsection two, endangering an aircraft causing injury. Both allow death by Firing Squad or life imprisonment.

5.Sources

[1] Reuters, October 3, 2026, “Flydubai co-pilot attacked pilot with axe in attempted terrorist attack, UAE says.” https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/flydubai-co-pilot-attacked-pilot-with-axe-attempted-terrorist-attack-uae-says-2026-10-03/

[2] Associated Press, October 3, 2026, reporting on al-Hammami’s identification, prior extremism concerns and employment history. Includes the AP article supplied by the author. https://apnews.com/article/cf64a228799e6e788e834cac2a489ab2

[3] ABC News, updated October 2, 2026, “Suspect in FlyDubai incident was previously identified as security risk: Officials.” https://video.goodmorningamerica.com/news/story/suspect-flydubai-incident-previously-identified-security-risk-officials-136960488

[5] CBS News, Kathryn Watson, October 1, 2026, reporting on Trump’s provisional suggestion of Iranian involvement. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-flydubai-pilot-linked-to-iran/

[4] Flightradar24, Ian Petchenik, September 30, updated October 3, 2026, flight tracking and reproduced Flydubai statements. https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/flight-tracking-news/major-incident/flydubai-flight-to-tel-aviv-diverts-to-tabuk-amid-onboard-incident/

6.Editorial disclosure

This is opinion and reported analysis, not a finding of guilt or an independent criminal investigation. Several allegations rely on unnamed sources. Iranian direction, payments, deliberate airline assistance, a coordinated conspiracy and a selected skyscraper target have not been established by the material reviewed. References to those possibilities express the author’s hypothesis and demands for investigation. The suspect remains accused; official findings and any court determinations may change the account. Sources were reviewed on October 3, 2026.

The Cat’s Out of the Bag

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A editorial by Nick Guarino

October 3, 2026

Reserve releases may buy time. My concern is what happens when that time runs out whe the reserves run out.

1.Opening

This is Nick Guarino. Today’s commentary is called “The Cat’s Out of the Bag.”

Claims about coordinated shortages, reserve exhaustion, and future military decisions are my suspicions and scenario gleamed from my sources.

Is it not amazing what you can do when you tell the story CNN forgot to report,

Now you know why I have been described as the most hated man on wall street.

A little reporting can change the equation. Once people start asking who has the barrels, who is releasing them, and who is profiting from the shortage, the oil story looks different.

2.Who benefits from the shortage

Uncle Sucker—the American consumer—has been getting suckered again.

We have been asking how the oil trade works when supplies tighten. Crude is one market. Diesel is another. You can have crude available and still have trouble producing or delivering the diesel people need.

The spread between the cost of crude and the price big oil gets for the refined products is called the crack spread. Refined fuel is where there is big money to be made and things gets interesting. In the scenario I’m disclosing you need to understand how a normal crack spread of, thirty-to-thirty-five-dollar spread becomes a hundred-and-fifty- or as much as a two-hundred-dollar spread on diesel.

You got to create shortages to achieve that kind of magic

Put Europe holding back reserves into that evil brew that they up till now they refused to release. Even though they promised a 100 million barrel release. A joke since we are short at least 10 million barrels a day. In ten days that release is gone. Add Russia withholding diesel as Ukraine drone targeted their refineries deep into Russia. To this evil mixture add due to Iranian attacks damaged Gulf refineries, and a little spice to the mix is disruption around Hormuz. Not to be left out of the fun is Chinese refiners keeping more fuel for domestic use and halting exports. .

That is my explanation for a energy squeeze that is coming….. After the elections.

The question: who benefits when fuel is scarce and the refining spread blows out?

The consumer pays. The sellers with available supply collect. Called big oil. Their profits are the most in the history.

Americans have been carrying too much of the burden while others held back barrels. People benefiting from high prices had little reason to hurry the relief. And the politicians are to stupid or too payed off to do anything about it.

3.The pressure brings a release

Now look at the two reports supplied for this commentary.

They describe an European agreement to release up to one hundred million barrels of emergency crude oil and diesel over four months, with a focus on diesel. They also describe American pressure, including the threat of a diesel-export ban, and a commitment against export bans.

That is crude and diesel combined. It is not one hundred million barrels of diesel alone.

According to the fuller report, diesel’s premium over crude temporally fell as traders anticipated the extra supply.

Ring, Ring. The phone wakes up.

“Wait a minute are you reporting. Europe has supplies sitting there while we’re taking the heat?”

“That’s the argument, Sir.”

“Then get them to release it. At least until after the elections”

Sir that is a temporary solution. The world is short 2 billion barrels of oil. And emergency reserves will run out completely in December

I’d like to think our disclosures helped. Our recent reporting caused should we say a lot of activity.

4.The barrels release will only buy a little time

Don’t make the mistake of treating an emergency release as a permanent supply source.

These are finite barrels. They can ease a crunch. They can give the market breathing room. They cannot keep replacing interrupted production forever.

One hundred million barrels spread over roughly four months works out to about eight hundred thirty thousand barrels a day. Useful relief—but the effect depends on how much supply is missing and how quickly those emergency barrels arrive.

My more severe scenario assumes a cumulative shortfall of a billion to a billion and a half barrels can only be solved if the straights are opened and Russian production is back on line.

I have also raised concerns about American strategic reserve located in salt-cavern which have reached supply limits, Chinese emergency supplies are exhausted, and European reserves could last only a matter of months.

I do have evidence establishing that America is about to reach cavern salt dome-damage threshold. China is down to a military minimum and Europe releasing its last reserves will soon peter out.

My warning is based on the realty that the world is consuming more oil than its producing. Global demand is 100 million barrels a day. And global production reaching market is at best 80 million barrels a day. Now add to the fact that emergency reserves are running out and total oil supplies have dropped by over 2 billion barrels.

And oil inventories are not recovering.

Well let me put it to you this way. We are in deep shit Batman!

A simpler question: what replaces the emergency barrels as they run out as the disruptions continues?

My expectation is that European releases could push oil prices a little lower, possibly into the ninety-dollar range, and temporarily ease pressure on winter diesel, heating oil, and other distillates. Key word is temporarily.

5.The election and Trumps next move

Now comes the political part of our discussion.

Lower fuel prices before an election are useful to the party in power. Trump is not personally on the congressional midterm ballot, but his party is. He can still claim credit: “Look, prices are coming down.”

My suspicion is that relief MAY buy him political time.

And my darker forecast is that, after the election, his calculation could change. I don’t think Trump wants to go out a loser. I think he wants a legacy that goes beyond restraining Iran’s nuclear program to defeating the regime itself.

In the blunt version of my scenario: he buys time, gets past the election, and then bombs the shit out of Iran.

When that happens, Iran only bid for survival is to play their last remaining card… retaliate against shipping and Gulf state energy infrastructure. A renewed or wider interruption around Hormuz could overwhelm the relief those reserve releases provided.

I interpret the Patriot deployments to gulf oil states described earlier as preparation for Iranian retaliation.

6.Russia opens the door a crack

And now Russia is opening the door a crack. Reuters reports on October 2 that Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak says Moscow will consider partially reopening diesel exports if production exceeds domestic demand. The ban for fuel producers remains extended through October. This is a conditional opening, not a confirmed restart.

My take: even the possibility of some Russian barrels coming back gives traders another reason to mark down the shortage premium. But an announcement does not fill a tanker. Watch the actual shipments. And available Russian export supplies are minuscule.

Here is a measure of the squeeze. S&P Global reported that Russian Black Sea diesel and gasoil export shipments fell to zero in the week ending September 24. Total Russian diesel and gasoil shipments were still 81,000 metric tons that week for domestic consumption. So the Black Sea stoppage was complete for that measured week;

And the scale of lost supplies out of Hormuz is enormous. EIA estimates petroleum-liquid flows through the strait averaged 21.6 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2025, then 4.9 million in the second quarter of 2026. That is a decline of about 77 percent in transit through that route. And for the 3rd quarter lower still.

That is why I keep coming back to diesel. Crude reaching a buyer does not automatically mean a damaged refinery can deliver the fuel a trucker needs. Reserve releases and a possible partial Russian reopening can slightely ease the pressure. Sustained refinery production and delivered cargoes are what make the relief last. And I don’t see that happening.

7.What I am watching

So here’s the deal.

The emergency barrels may bring prices down a little for a while. People may mistake that relief for a lasting recovery in supply.

I think that could be a dangerous assumption.

If the barrels flow and regular supply recovers, the relief can hold. That has a snowballs chance in hell of happening.

If reserves are drawn down while the conflict expands, the next squeeze could be worse. And that is exactely what I am predicting.

That is the scenario I am warning about: a temporary lull, followed by a much larger shock.

The cat’s out of the bag. Now watch whether the barrels actually arrive. Watch what happens to refinery output and shipping. And watch the military decisions after the election.

SHOW ME THE FREGGING OIL! Not bullshit press releases!!!

This is Nick Guarino. That is my opinion.

8.Research references

Reuters, October 2, 2026 — Russia will consider partial lifting of diesel export ban in case of overproduction, Novak says. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-will-consider-partial-lifting-diesel-export-ban-case-overproduction-novak-2026-10-02/

S&P Global, September 29, 2026 — Russia’s Black Sea diesel exports fall to zero for first time on record. https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/092926-russias-black-sea-diesel-exports-fall-to-zero-for-first-time-on-record

EIA, September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook — historical Hormuz transit estimates. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf

Reserve-release discussion is based on the two news excerpts supplied by the author. The political forecast and imagined phone call are editorial speculation. Sources are reference material, not part of the spoken narration.

Trump Iran War and the Coming Oil Shock

 

Strait-of-Hormuz-Conflic.png

 

Military preparations and the approaching midterms raise the risk of escalation and a severe oil supply shock.

The warning signs that Trump is preparing for the final battle with Iran deserve attention.

My assessment is that President Trump is positioning the United States for a major escalation against Iran. The additional naval forces, reinforced defenses around Gulf energy facilities, and increasingly explicit threats give Washington more options for renewed attacks—and protection against the retaliation those attacks could provoke. A final decision has been made. It establishes that the military preparations are consistent with the coming attack. And the Trump final solution will become reality. The Associated Press reports that the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and additional ships carrying 10,000 sailors and Marines are heading toward the Middle East. Their arrival could expand the naval force available to Trump as he plans renewed strikes. Deployment, however, does not itself prove an order to attack: military movements can also support deterrence, negotiations, and force rotations.

The defensive preparations are especially revealing. Axios reports that the United States has sent additional Patriot batteries to Saudi Arabia and Qatar to protect important oil and natural-gas facilities. The reported purpose is to reassure those allies that their energy infrastructure will be defended if major operations against Iran resume. My interpretation is that Washington is preparing for the consequences of escalation as well as the opening strikes.

1.The election could change the calculation

The November midterms are congressional elections. Trump himself is not on the ballot, but his party’s control of the House and Senate is at stake. Before the election, an expanded war and higher fuel prices could hurt Republican candidates. Afterward, that immediate electoral constraint changes. AP reports that Trump has raised the possibility of renewed bombing after the midterms. That supports scrutiny of the timing; and it shows electoral considerations are part of his calculation for his military calculations.

If by some miracle the Republicans retain Congress, Trump could interpret the result as political encouragement. If they lose, he could decide to act aggressively despite the defeat. Since he has nothing to lose. That is my political assessment. It is NOT a overstatement to say he would have nothing to lose or that Congress could not constrain him. Congress retains funding and war-powers tools, although using them against a president can face substantial political and procedural obstacles. That trick has never stopped a US president from starting or fighting a foreign war.

I believe his legacy may also influence his calculation: preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon, while pursuing a more decisive defeat of the regime. Trump has previously spoken favorably about possible regime change. That supports considering the motive, without establishing a settled plan to overthrow the government.

2.Two alarming incidents—with responsibility unresolved

The Flydubai flight bound for Tel Aviv suffered a violent cockpit incident where a suicidal bomber attempted to take over the plane. Israels who are not passive people stopped him cold in his tracks and rescued the plane that was diverted to Saudi Arabia. Iranian involvement has not been officially established in the reporting reviewed for this report. But it is obvious that the terrorist was a radicalized suicide bomber using a aircraft 911 style as a weapon. Please note it is a obvious cover up by his Mohammad brothers. His name has not been released and the Saudis quietly in the noddle of the night released the co pilot to his home land Oman. I am sure the conclusion will be he was a lone wolf. Not true! He was a ISIS suicide bomber sent by Iran to kill Jews. Fly Dubi is in deep financial trouble. The war has slashed tourism and flight traffic by over half. 1 million Israeli passport holders fly with them each year. The last thinb they need to be revealed is that let a terrorist full of hatred for Jews to pilot one of their flights to Israel. Calling it a Iranian “9/11-style attack” is well supported by the evidence.

British authorities are also investigating suspected activity near RAF Fairford, used by American bombers. Reuters reports a further arrest of a British-Iranian dual national, while investigators examine possible foreign-state involvement. Iran denies responsibility. An arrest and a suspect’s nationality do not establish Iranian direction of a plot. If investigators establish Iranian responsibility in either case, the political pressure for retaliation could intensify.

3.The oil market is the pressure point

Iran does not need to defeat the American military to inflict serious economic damage. Threatening shipping and energy infrastructure has transmitted the conflict into soaring fuel prices worldwide.

Reuters reports that Iran is preparing for broader retaliation if large-scale attacks resume. Disruption of energy flows is one the only viable weapon Iran has left. It is regime in its death throws. Shutting down the Straights is its only remaining weapon.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024, roughly one-fifth of global petroleum-liquids consumption. Those are historical figures, todays traffic is les then 5 million barrels..

My forecast is a major escalation that removes substantial supplies for a sustained period could push oil to $150 a barrel. A prolonged, wider disruption in the Gulf states affecting shipping, refineries, pipelines and major export facilities could produce an extreme spike toward $200 or $250.

Those prices are my scenario estimates. The outcome would depend on lost volumes, duration, alternative routes, emergency inventories, replacement supplies, and falling demand as prices rise.

The central warning is this: the approaching election may change Trump’s incentives while the military buildup expands his options. If escalation follows, the consequences could reach far beyond Iran. The risk is substantial enough to take seriously. And if rght COULD make you millions on your lottery ticket trading!

Nick Guarino

Source references

AP: Carrier deployment
https://apnews.com/article/42c23e9af0333f4bc3b4f419cc3a603e

Axios: Patriot defenses
https://www.axios.com/2026/10/02/patriot-missiles-iran-war-saudi-arabia-qatar

AP: Trump and renewed bombing
https://apnews.com/article/af2443646cf96ff01b8b1becff3f3e0e

Reuters: Congressional war powers
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/congress-has-backed-iran-war-powers-resolutions-now-what-2026-06-09/

Reuters: Regime-change comments
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/second-us-aircraft-carrier-head-middle-east-amid-iran-tensions-us-media-reports-2026-02-13/

Sky News: Flydubai investigation
https://news.sky.com/story/flydubai-latest-flight-from-dubai-to-tel-aviv-lands-safely-in-saudi-arabia-after-brawl-between-pilots-13593603

Reuters: Fairford investigation
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-police-arrest-dual-uk-iranian-man-airbase-investigation-2026-10-01/

Reuters: Potential Iranian retaliation
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-readies-harder-retaliation-if-attacked-diplomacy-faces-long-odds-2026-10-01/

EIA: Historical Hormuz flows
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504

 

Trump: Iran will either sign fair deal or cease to exist… The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier is headed to the Middle East….Trump says US to win Iran war ‘maybe before’ election……. US said to deploy more Patriot missiles to S. Arabia, Qatar

United States President Donald Trump told reporters on Thursday that Iran will either have to sign a “very fair” deal, or the country “won’t exist any longer,” adding that he has a decision to make and reiterating his comments from yesterday about potentially having to “blow them up.” The US president was also asked about Tehran’s potential involvement in the incident with the Flydubai passenger airplane that was forced to make an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia after a physical altercation between the pilots, to which he responded that Iran will be “hit very hard” if it is determined that it was behind the attack.

NN: Something big will happen in the next 3o days.

The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier is headed to the Middle East

The Pentagon is deploying an additional aircraft carrier and 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf, according to a US official, a move that gives American commanders more options if President Donald Trump chooses to escalate attacks on Iran.The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier left its San Diego home port on Sunday and is headed to the Middle East, the official said. When the Roosevelt arrives, the US could again have three carrier strike groups in the region, the same number as in late April, although a decision on maintaining that level hasn’t been made, the official added. The USS George Washington remains in the region but the George H.W. Bush has temporarily departed, according to the official. Before this year’s operations against Iran, the last time the US had three carrier strike groups in the Middle East was in 2003, when they supported the early phase of the invasion of Iraq. US Central Command, which oversees military operations in the Middle East, said in a statement that “we don’t discuss unit schedules for operational security reasons.”

Trump says US to win Iran war ‘maybe before’ election

United States President Donald Trump said Iran is ready to “fold” and that Washington may “win” the war before the midterm elections. “We’ll win very easily right now… I believe right after the election we’ll win, but maybe before the election, because they have 300% inflation,” Trump said during a speech in Denton, Texas. “Their air force has been totally extinguished, they have no anti-aircraft, they have some missiles, but we can handle it,” he added.

US said to deploy more Patriot missiles to S. Arabia, Qatar

The United States military recently sent two additional Patriot missile defense systems to Saudi Arabia and Qatar to help them safeguard critical oil and gas sites from potential regional threats, Axios reported, citing US officials. This deployment is meant to reaffirm Washington’s protection of key Gulf allies and their energy infrastructure in case US President Donald Trump decides to resume major military operations against Iran. Trump stated recently that Iran will either have to sign a “very fair” deal, or the country “won’t exist any longer,” warning of potential bombing operations in the coming period.

NN: I want to be clear here. Trump is gearing up for something BIG here. Even  if the lefty liberal fagot commies take the hous and the senate they will not be able to stp Trump. When he has got nothing to lose he has everything to gail. All i can say is bombs away and $150 oil here we come

9-11 Style Terrorist Attack Narrowly Averted Over Israel

flydubai-Boeing-787.jpg

 

A FlyDubai commercial flight number FZ1073 Dubai to Tel Aviv was rescued from near disaster over Israel by a brave pilot bleeding and a Israel Plumber returning from a vacation

Most of the 174 passengers were Jews and Israelis 166 of them heading to Israel, some returning home, others coming for a holiday. They were two and a half hours into the three hour flight.

The plane was approaching Tel Aviv Israels largest a city with a population of 4.3 million people. Behind the cockpit door sat Captain Smit Machchhar, an Indian national, and First Officer the Omani co pilot we will call him Mohammad since his real name has not been disclosed. As Dubai tries to play down the fact it was a terrorist attack ordered out of Iran. The Co Pilot was new he joined Fly Dubai, about eight months ago. The warning signs he was a radicalized terrorist were everywhere. He declined to shake hands with female colleagues because of his religious observance. And was described as praying “excessively.” He carried the Koran everywhere he went.

Captain Machchhar was looking forward to time off with his family. Copilot Mohammad was dreaming about his 72 virgins,

Mohammad had secretly joined ISIS. His intended victims were the Jewish passengers entrusted to his care and the people in downtown Tel Aviv. He imagined turning the aircraft into a weapon, repeating the horror of September 11 against another skyline. He had concealed that purpose behind the uniform of a man paid to bring people safely home.

Captain Machchhar noticed his silence. He asked a routine question and received no answer. When he turned, Rahman was already moving.

The attack came so suddenly that the captain had no time to understand the first blow. Then he felt the wound. Blood soaked his shirt. He tried to push his colleague away, struck the side of his seat, and fell against the cockpit floor.

Outside, the cabin innocent civilians remained unaware that they faced a near death life changing experience.

The reality check came when the aircraft dropped plunging more than 14,000 feet (4,300 meters) in less than 30 seconds. Thankfully the pilot unlatched the cockpit door. And a Israeli Plumber by the name of Yaniv Hayun rushed into the cockpit and pull up on the stick with seconds to spare. Yaniv said he watched the TV show Air Crash investigations and remembered shows where pilots pulled back on the controls to take a plane out of a dive.

The first scream came from the front of the aircraft. A second followed it. The cabin tilted, and a cup struck the ceiling before falling into the aisle. People reached for seats, for relatives, for anything that felt fixed.

Inside the cockpit, Mohammad had seized the controls. “Allahu akbar!” he shouted. “I will die a shahid!” His declaration accompanied an attempt to kill the passengers and people on the ground. His words made his intention unmistakable to the wounded captain.

The Captain tried to rise up his arm gave way. He could feel blood beneath his hand and hear cries through the closed door. The man who had attacked him was still within reach, but Captain Macchhar no longer had the strength to wrestle him away alone.

The captain understood what was happening. Mohammad wanted to kill the Jewish passengers helpless locked out of the cabin. There was nothing they could do. The aircraft had become a prison moving through the sky. Every person aboard depended on someone at the front stopping the descent.

Macchhar reached for the cockpit door release. Mohhamad saw him move and shoved him back. The captain struck the floor again. For a moment he lay still, his face against the cold surface, listening to passenger screams behind him.

He moved again.

Pain narrowed his world to the distance between his hand and the release. He could not save the aircraft from the floor. He could give someone else a chance to reach it. He stretched, dragged himself closer, and miraculously opened the cockpit door.

An Israeli passenger standing near the front saw the captain’s blood first. Then he saw the struggle and understood that the flight was being attacked from within.

There was no announcement telling him what to do. No time to appoint a leader. Behind him were people he loved. Ahead of him was the man trying to kill them.

Yaniv Hayun rushed through the doorway. He collided with Mohammad before he could turn fully toward the open door. Another Israeli followed. A third came forward from the aisle, stumbling as the aircraft moved beneath him. They crowded into a space too small for the fight unfolding inside it.

Mohmmad struck back. A passenger’s head hit the doorway. Blood ran down his face, and he wiped at it with his sleeve because he could no longer see clearly. Another man lost his footing, caught himself, and returned to the struggle. Nobody knew whether their effort would be enough.

In the cabin, a woman heard the fighting and called for people to stay back from the aisle. She tried to keep the path clear. A parent held a child so tightly that the child protested, and the sound of that protest was suddenly precious. Other passengers prayed. One man kept saying that he had to get home, as if repeating the words could hold the aircraft in the air. Others were reciting the Shema Israel a prayer commonly recited when Jews face death. Hear o Israel the lord is our GOD the lord is one. Blessed be the name of his glorious kingdom forever and ever.

At the front, the passengers fought to restrain the attacker. They had no rehearsed plan. They could see the wounded captain trying to move, and they understood that he needed room. They shouted to one another over the noise, their words breaking into commands and cries.

The Captain pulled himself upright. A Jewish passenger a dentist helped him. His shirt was heavy with blood, and his breathing had become shallow. He looked toward the controls and then toward the people holding Mohammad. One of them met his eyes and saw his radicalized hatred.

“We’ve got him,” the passenger said. He could not know whether that promise would hold. He made it anyway.

Fortunately relief pilots were on board they regained control of the aircraft. A second qualified pilot, traveling aboard as a passenger reached the cockpit and helped him. Together they began to recover the the badly damaged airplane. While the others kept Mohammad restrained. Please note they did not kill their attempted assign but rendered him first aid.

The descent eased. Nobody in the cabin trusted the change at first. People waited for another violent movement, another scream, another sign that the fight had been lost. Then the aircraft steadied. Someone began to cry from relief. Other’s cheered grateful to still be alive.

Surviving the dive did not mean the ordeal was over. The captain was wounded. The passengers were frightened. The attacker was still aboard, restrained and watched. The cripled aircraft full of people had to reach the ground safely, and every unfamiliar sound now made someone look up.

The crew spoke to the cabin. They told the passengers that control had been restored and asked them to remain seated. The announcement was brief. It gave people something they could understand and something they could do. It did not pretend that nothing had happened.

The flight turned back toward Dubai. The supporting pilot took over much of the flying while Captin Machchhar received help for his injuries. The captain stayed involved as his condition allowed. Other crew members moved through the cabin, checking passengers and trying to restore order without making promises they could not keep.

A woman asked whether the bleeding captain would live. A crew member told her he was being helped. A man wanted to call his wife. Another stared at his own hands, astonished to find blood on them. He had entered the cockpit so quickly that he could barely remember deciding to go.

The passengers who had fought Rahman did not feel like heroes. One was shaking too hard to hold a cup. Another kept returning to the same question: what if he had hesitated? The question had no useful answer, but it would not leave him alone.

As the crippled aircraft suffering severe tail damage continued toward Dubai, the cabin became quiet. People listened to the engines. They watched the crew. A child asked whether they were still going on vacation, and her father said they would talk about it when they landed. It was the first ordinary conversation he had managed since the dive.

At the front, the pilots concentrated on bringing everyone safely down. The imagined tower target in Tel Aviv was behind them. The attacker had failed to reach it. But the passengers would not feel safe until the wheels touched a runway and stayed there.

When the landing finally came, a few people applauded. Others were too exhausted to move.

The aircraft rolled to a stop.

The doors opened to emergency personnel. Medical workers reached the wounded captain, and authorities took the restrained attacker into custody. Passengers left the aircraft in uneven groups. Some walked quickly, desperate to put distance between themselves and the cockpit. Others stopped at the door and looked back.

The Brave pilot from India was taken for treatment. He had survived the attack, but the wounds were severe, and his recovery would take time. The passengers who had been injured in the struggle also received care. Nobody died. Survival did not erase the memories of the blood, the pain, or the hours when death had seemed unavoidable.

In a room away from the aircraft, people began calling home. Several could not complete their first sentence. A woman said her husband’s name, heard him answer, and started crying. A father told his family that their daughter was safe. He had to repeat it because the person listening could not believe him.

The Israelis who had entered the cockpit sat among the others. Their bloodstained clothes made them easy to recognize. Passengers approached them, shook their hands, embraced them, and sometimes stood beside them without finding any words at all.

One of the men kept saying that anyone would have done the same. A woman who had watched him run forward answered that she had not run forward. She thanked him. He lowered his eyes, unsure how to accept it.

The Dubai investigation has so far been a cover up. True investigation by the Israeli Mossad will examine Mohammad ISIS and Iranian connection and his intended target.

For the passengers waiting in Dubai, the immediate question was simpler: when could they go home? They had survived, but they were still far from the people who needed to see them.

Arrangements were made for another flight to Israel. Some passengers hesitated before boarding. The sight of another aircraft brought the fear back. They went together, watching one another, accepting help where they needed it.

This time, the destination would be a homecoming and heroes welcome in Israel…

In Israel, relatives waited beyond the arrivals doors. They checked their phones, looked toward the corridor, and asked whether the flight had landed. Information had reached them in fragments. Knowing someone was alive by telephone was different from seeing that person walk toward you.

Then the passengers appeared. A little girl saw her grandmother and ran. Her father followed more slowly, still carrying the bag he had packed for a holiday. The grandmother knelt and held the child against her. Nobody asked about the vacation.

A woman reached her husband and put both hands against his face. He tried to tell her that he was all right, but she was already pulling him close. Behind them, another family embraced a man whose shirt still bore the marks of the cockpit fight. His son looked at the blood and asked whose it was.

The man said they would talk later. For a while, there was only the work of finding one another. People called names across the hall. Suitcases stood unattended beside reunions. A passenger who had held himself together through

This is the ending of an attempted atrocity by Iran: an ISIS attacker defeated, the aircraft recovered, every life preserved, and wounded people given a chance to heal. The fear does not vanish at the arrivals hall. Some survivors will remember the dive whenever they board another flight. Others will wake hearing the scream that came from the cockpit.

But they will wake. The people the attacker intended to kill are home. Downtown Tel Aviv remains standing. Families that might have been waiting for terrible news are holding the people they love.

Iran has got to be stopped. Imagin what they will do if they get nukes!

Oil rises, WTI jumps 2.5%

The price of oil futures increased on Wednesday, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) soaring 2.5% as worries over the situation in the Middle East continued to persist. While some media reports suggested earlier that Washington was ready to offer sanctions relief to Iran to accelerate nuclear negotiations, United States President Donald Trump said this was a “hoax,” denying the claims. In addition, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the country would continue to target Iran and its enablers. WTI for November settlements surged 2.5% at 11:32 am ET, going for $91.33 a barrel. At the same time, Brent for the same month’s deliveries added 1.10%, selling at $103.72 per barrel.

NN: Its election season, prepare yourself for a blizzard of bullshit!