Oil rises, WTI jumps 2.5%

The price of oil futures increased on Wednesday, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) soaring 2.5% as worries over the situation in the Middle East continued to persist. While some media reports suggested earlier that Washington was ready to offer sanctions relief to Iran to accelerate nuclear negotiations, United States President Donald Trump said this was a “hoax,” denying the claims. In addition, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the country would continue to target Iran and its enablers. WTI for November settlements surged 2.5% at 11:32 am ET, going for $91.33 a barrel. At the same time, Brent for the same month’s deliveries added 1.10%, selling at $103.72 per barrel.

NN: Its election season, prepare yourself for a blizzard of bullshit!

 

Netanyahu: Flydubai pilot tried to crash plane

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed on Wednesday that a pilot on a flydubai flight bound for Israel stabbed the other pilot and apparently tried to crash the aircraft. Netanyahu said an Israeli passenger told him that he and a crew member forced their way into the cockpit and subdued the pilot as he tried to sabotage the plane’s systems, and he hailed the bravery of the passengers and crew who stopped the assailant. The flight diverted and landed safely in Saudi Arabia, where the Israeli leader said the authorities are questioning the attacker. Israel is in contact with Saudi authorities to arrange the passengers’ return.

NN: These Hodges cannot help themselves. Wonder where the knife came from? It plunged so hard it damn near tore the tail off

US DEPLETES ITS DIESEL FUEL RESERVES…., EUROPE REUFSES TO RELASE ITS RESERVES

oil shortafe.jpg

Greedy oil companies are supplying US Diesel fuel and heating oil to Europe because they pay twice the price

  • This means US prices are doubling

  • US reserves of heating oil and diesel fuel are crashing

  • Oil companies are the most profitable they have ever been

  • Their is a real danger if winter is sever heating oil sullpies wll run out

Here is the inside story of how the manipulation works. A story Wall Street and oil companies are willing to do anything to stop this from getting out

Once again I find myself on the fireline. Attempts to hack our web sights. This Midnight phone calls. People follow us. Offers of cash. And I told them what I told Bill Clinton, The world gold council, Nasdaq, CME, NFA Wall Street and the rest of the scum bags… KISS MY ASS!

HERE IS THE INSIDE SKINNY:

US distillate inventories are at multi-year lows —

107.4 million barrels as of September 18, 2026, the lowest for this time of year in roughly 45 years, and 12% below the five-year average. The East Coast is 31% below norm.New England heating oil stocks hit an all-time low of 2.3 million barrels. US refiners are running at their highest sustained rates since 2018, and roughly half of Europe’s seaborne diesel now comes from the United States — about 520,000 barrels a day in August.

SUCKING America dry. AS YOU ARE SEEING US INVENTORIES TO RECORD LOWS. While European inventories are their highest ever

Europe, by contrast, sits on enormous emergency stockpiles. 380 million barrels Under EU Directive 2009/119/EC, every member state must hold stocks equal to at least 90 days of net imports or 61 days of consumption, whichever is greater — and at least one-third must be refined products. Germany held about 92 days as of June, Spain 97, the Netherlands 94. Petroleum Economist’s Paul Hickin puts combined European commercial and government diesel at about 350 million barrels, the largest such pile in the world. The European Commission said in September it sees no diesel shortage in the bloc, and that commercial and emergency stocks are sufficient.

Yet Europe will not draw those stocks to ease prices. IEA doctrine is explicit: the emergency system is “not a tool for price intervention or long-term supply management.” Releases are for severe physical disruptions, not for the market. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said Tuesday that Europe is among the most exposed regions — “if not the most exposed one” — because it imports “huge amounts of diesel” into winter, with Russia and the Gulf constrained and the United States now considering an export ban of its own. Asked whether the IEA had tried to talk Washington out of a ban, Birol said the agency advises members on what is in their interest and their allies’ interest. He did not claim a veto.

Washington is now testing that doctrine in public. Politico reported Tuesday that the White House may ask European governments to release diesel from strategic reserves as a way to skip a full US export ban. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum put the premise in one sentence: “It is a fact that the Europeans have a lot of diesel reserves.” An industry executive familiar with the talks said the motivation is “to stop a ban.” Reuters, the same day, reported the White House is already urging the EU to draw emergency diesel inventories and is particularly frustrated with France and Germany for delivering only a fraction of what they pledged to the March 400-million-barrel IEA release. Energy Secretary Chris Wright made the same charge: the US and Japan are delivering; several European members are not.

Germany’s answer is already on the record. A spokesperson for the Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy said the country is unlikely to agree unless there is an actual shortage. That is the official line. It is also selective. On 30 September, Economy Minister Katherina Reiche — in coordination with Chancellor Friedrich Merz — ordered state-owned Sefe to procure and inject 8 TWh of natural gas by 15 December because German gas storage is only about 58% full, well below the EU average of ~71% and far below last September. Reiche had first asked Sefe to buy “in small steps so as not to alarm the market.” That request is now an order. Berlin will use the state to fill gas tanks. It will not use emergency oil stocks to ease a diesel market it says is not in shortage.

The other side of the Atlantic is not waiting. Moscow on 30 September extended the ban on diesel, marine fuel, and gasoil exports by direct producers through 31 October (it had been due to expire the same day). The stated reason: a stable domestic market during harvest demand. The broader Russian fuel-export ban still runs to 31 January 2027; the jet-fuel ban to 30 November. Russia was the world’s second-largest diesel exporter after the United States. Those barrels are not coming back before winter.

The result is a one-way flow. American inventories drain to supply Europe. European emergency barrels sit untouched.

Russian product stays home. Americans pay elevated prices for a tightness that is in part policy-created: the molecule exists, in European tanks and in US export cargoes, but it is not being held for US winter demand. The asymmetry is structural, not accidental. The US has no 90-day product obligation, no refined-product strategic reserve, and no tool to redirect barrels home short of an export ban. Europe has the obligation, the barrels, and the legal right to release them — and chooses not to. Washington’s ask, Germany’s refusal, Birol’s warning, and Russia’s extra month of curbs all point the same way: if the winter is cold, the swing barrel is still an American one.

 

Diesel and Heating Oil: US vs Europe.

Prices. US national averages, excluding California: diesel $6.38 a gallon, heating oil $5.54. The diesel-to-heating-oil gap is about 85 cents. Europe’s weighted averages: diesel around $9.60, heating oil around $7.53, gap about $2.04. Germany: diesel $10.56, heating oil $7.35. France: diesel $10.24, heating oil $8.33. The key driver is taxes — Europe’s excise duties and VAT add roughly 40% to the pump price, while US diesel taxes are only about 60 cents a gallon. Wholesale spot at New York Harbor: heating oil around $5.00, diesel around $5.22

Inventories. EIA, week ending September 18, 2026: total distillate stocks 107.4 million barrels, down about 14% year-over-year, 12% below the five-year average — lowest for this time of year in about 45 years. By region: East Coast 31% below norm, the tightest. Midwest 11% below. Gulf Coast 2% above, normal. Rocky Mountain 10% below. West Coast normal. Northeast heating oil stocks: about 12.7 million barrels — only about 23 days of cover at normal winter draw. Europe, July 2026: EU middle distillates about 372 million barrels, down 5% from two years ago. EU diesel days of cover about 94 days, minimum 90. ARA hub gasoil hit a 4-year low in August.

Trade flows. US share of EU diesel imports: August 2026 about 50%, 2026 year-to-date about 32%, 2025 about 17%, July 2024 about 38%. Context: before the war, Russian diesel made up over 40% of Europe’s diesel imports. Gulf diesel exports to Europe are down about 75%. The Strait of Hormuz disruption is the main current constraint.

The arbitrage. Why US refiners sell to Europe: European diesel crack hit a record $74.66 a barrel in summer 2026. Gross arbitrage about $41 a barrel, roughly 98 cents a gallon. Domestic US crack about $28. Export premium about $13 a barrel more than selling at home.

On a 300,000-barrel cargo, that’s about $12.4 million IN EXTRA MOEY by sucking down US inventories and selling to Europe

Winter outlook, cold-winter scenario. Northeast heating oil: 12.7 million barrels on hand. Normal winter draw needs about 82 million barrels. Cold winter, plus 20% demand, needs about 99 million. Shortfall versus current stocks: about 86 million barrels. Import need to fill the gap: about 576,000 barrels a day.

Price scenarios for a Northeast household using 800 gallons a winter: at $3.50 a gallon, 2025 winter, $2,800. At $5.50, $4,400. At $6.50, $5,200. At $7.50, $6,000. At $8.50, $6,800. Extra cost at $7.50 versus $3.50: $3,200 per household. Region-wide Northeast consumer spending: at $7.50 a gallon, about $30 billion. At $3.50, about $14 billion. Extra cost about $16 billion. 2022 precedent: Northeast heating oil went from about $3.50 to $6.50 a gallon, up 86%, on similar stock levels — and this year the import pipeline is tighter, so the spike could be worse. Subjective scenario probabilities: mild winter about 30% — prices stay elevated but manageable. Average winter about 40% — $5 to $6 a gallon, some spot shortages. Cold winter about 25% — $6.50 to $8, rationing risk in the Northeast. Severe plus supply shock about 5% — crisis territory.

Wildcards. US export policy: if the US cuts EU diesel exports by 30%, about 54,000 barrels a day, Europe has nowhere to replace them — European cracks spike further, US stocks rebuild, but prices diverge sharply. Strait of Hormuz: if it reopens, Gulf barrels flow back and everything eases; if it stays closed, tightness persists. IEA strategic releases: 400 million barrels released since March, about a third hasn’t reached markets yet, and product releases take weeks to reach consumers. Demand destruction: at $8 a gallon, consumption typically falls 10 to 15%. The molecule problem: in the US, heating oil and diesel are the same molecule — truckers and homeowners compete for the same barrel, and in 2022 that pushed Northeast heating oil to record premiums over diesel.

Bottom line. Not a 1970s-style crisis — no lines at the pump. But a 2022-style price shock is the base case for a cold winter. Risk is asymmetric: upside price risk is much larger than downside. Structural tightness persists into 2027 regardless of weather. If the winter is mild, stocks rebuild and prices ease $1 to $1.50 a gallon by spring. The two things that change everything: US export policy and Hormuz.

If it’s a colder then normal winter their will be diesel fuel and heating oil shortages. Either way at a minim expect prices to double

DIESEL AND HEATING OIL

UNITED STATES vs EUROPE

30 September 2026 · Nick Guarino

US distillate stocks sit at a 45-year seasonal low while Europe is paying a record diesel crack and taking roughly half of its August diesel imports from the United States. Heating oil and diesel are the same molecule. A cold Northeast winter would force households and truckers to bid against each other for a barrel that is already leaving the Atlantic Coast for Europe.

PRICES

Retail

Market

Diesel

Heating oil

Gap

United States*

$6.38 / gal

$5.54 / gal

~$0.85 / gal

Europe (EU wtd.)

~$9.60 / gal

~$7.53 / gal

~$2.04 / gal

Germany

$10.56 / gal

$7.35 / gal

—

France

$10.24 / gal

$8.33 / gal

—

US figures are national averages excluding California. US heating oil is the last official reading, late March 2026.

Taxes and wholesale

Europe’s excise duties and VAT add roughly 40% to the pump price. US diesel taxes are only about $0.60 per gallon.

New York Harbor wholesale: heating oil ~$5.00, diesel ~$5.22. Heating oil is cheaper at wholesale in the offseason; the gap flips in winter.

INVENTORIES

United States (EIA, week ending 18 September 2026). Total distillate stocks: 107.4 million barrels — down ~14% year-over-year, 12% below the five-year average, and the lowest for this time of year in ~45 years.

Region

Vs. seasonal norm

East Coast

31% below (tightest)

Midwest

11% below

Gulf Coast

2% above (normal)

Rocky Mountain

10% below

West Coast

Normal

Northeast heating oil stocks: ~12.7 million barrels — only ~23 days of cover at a normal winter draw.

Europe (July 2026). EU middle distillates: ~372 million barrels, down 5% from two years ago. EU diesel days of cover: ~94 days (minimum 90). ARA hub gasoil hit a 4-year low in August.

TRADE FLOWS

US share of EU diesel imports: August 2026 ~50%; 2026 year-to-date ~32%; 2025 ~17%; July 2024 ~38%.

Before the war, Russian diesel made up over 40% of Europe’s diesel imports. Gulf diesel exports to Europe are down ~75%. The Strait of Hormuz disruption is the main current constraint.

THE ARBITRAGE

Why US refiners sell to Europe: the European diesel crack hit a record $74.66/barrel in summer 2026. Gross arbitrage is ~$41/barrel (~$0.98/gallon). The domestic US crack is ~$28/barrel, so the export premium is ~$13/barrel more than selling at home. On a 300,000-barrel cargo that is ~$12.4 million.

Fragility: if the crack falls to $40, net falls to ~$7/barrel and the trade stops making sense.

WINTER OUTLOOK — COLD-WINTER SCENARIO

Northeast heating oil on hand: 12.7 million barrels. A normal winter draw is ~82 million barrels; a cold winter (+20% demand) needs ~99 million. Shortfall versus current stocks: ~86 million barrels. Import need to fill the gap: ~576,000 barrels/day.

Price scenarios for a Northeast household (800 gallons/winter)

Retail price

Season bill

$3.50 / gal (2025 winter)

$2,800

$5.50 / gal

$4,400

$6.50 / gal

$5,200

$7.50 / gal

$6,000

$8.50 / gal

$6,800

Extra cost at $7.50 versus $3.50: $3,200 per household. Region-wide Northeast consumer spending at $7.50/gal is ~$30 billion versus ~$14 billion at $3.50/gal in 2025 — an extra ~$16 billion.

2022 precedent: Northeast heating oil went from ~$3.50 to $6.50/gal (+86%) on similar stock levels. This year the import pipeline is tighter, so the spike could be worse.

Subjective scenario probabilities

Case

Probability

Outcome

Mild winter

~30%

Elevated but manageable

Average winter

~40%

$5–6/gal, some spot shortages

Cold winter

~25%

$6.50–8/gal, rationing risk in the Northeast

Severe + shock

~5%

Crisis territory

Sources

EIA, European Commission/Eurostat, OPEC MOMR, Kpler, S&P Global, IEA, Insights Global, Bruegel. Exchange rate ~1.1355 USD/EUR. All figure

 

Russia extends ban on diesel exports through October…IEA: Europe could be most exposed to diesel crisis ….US might ask Europe to tap into diesel reserves

The Russian government issued a decree on Wednesday, extending the ban on the export of diesel and marine fuel, as well as gas oils exported from Russia by direct producers, until October 31, 2026. The decision was made to maintain a stable situation on the domestic fuel market, including in the context of increased demand for motor fuel during the harvest season,” the government stated. The restrictions were previously extended only until September 30. Meanwhile, Moscow’s general ban on Russian fuel exports remains in effect until January 31, 2027, the same as the ban on diesel fuel exports for non-producers, while the ban on jet fuel exports is in effect until November 30.

IEA: Europe could be most exposed to diesel crisis

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Tuesday that Europe is among the most exposed regions, “if not the most exposed one,” to the ongoing diesel supply shortages. He noted that the European Union imports “huge amounts of diesel,” especially ahead of the winter season, and warned that supply-chain difficulties are exacerbating the situation. Birol pointed to issues faced by traditional exporters such as Russia and the Gulf states, but also the United States, which is now considering a ban on diesel exports as well. Asked whether the IEA has tried to persuade the Trump administration not to impose a ban, he said that the agency is advising all member countries on actions that are in their interest, as well as in the interest of their allies and partners.

US might ask Europe to tap into diesel reserves

The White House might contact European governments to ask them to release diesel from their own strategic reserves, as the Trump administration continues to search for options that would allow it to skip a complete diesel export ban, Politico reported on Tuesday, citing sources. Meanwhile, United States Interior Secretary Doug Burgum hinted at the plan previously, telling reporters that “it is a fact that the Europeans have a lot of diesel reserves.”

Paul Hickin, the chief economist and editor-in-chief at London-based Petroleum Economist, previously shared that Europe has 350 million barrels of diesel in reserves, with this being the biggest combined commercial and government reserves of the fuel in the world. A spokesperson for the German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy suggested that the country is unlikely to agree to such a move unless there is an actual shortage.

Europe Winter Energy Of Discontent

 

europe energy crises.jpeg

 

Europe is heading into winter with a thin natural gas cushion, expensive diesel, disrupted supplies from the Gulf, and a new question hanging over American diesel exports. Price and availability are converging. That is the story you need to understand. One cold winter exposes the energy crises governments are hell bent to cover up. A household can have gas in the pipe and still be unable to afford the heat. A truck can find diesel at the pump and still be unable to run a profitable route. And if supplies tighten further, the price crisis can become a physical shortage. That is the escalation I want you to see.

It start with natural gas. European storage is around seventy percent full, well below its normal level for late September. The first warning signs are everywhere. The European energy commissioner has urged countries to conserve gas and electricity, while saying there is currently no threat to security of supply. So that begs the question why are they asking people to conserve? That is the official position today. My question is what happens after long months of cold weather causes supplies to run critically low or even run out. Europe partially replaced some of its lost Russian pipeline gas with other pipeline supplies and much more expensive liquefied natural gas. LNG arrives by ship and competes for buyers across the globe. When a major supplier cannot deliver contracted cargoes, somebody else must supply them—and the replacement can cost more and worse case not available. Italy’s Edison says Qatar Energy has extended cancellations of LNG deliveries into December. Some of those cargoes have been replaced but not all.. Qatar is not sending anywhere close to its usual cargoes: a small amount of Qatar-linked LNG vessels have recently moved through Hormuz. But the loss of dependable Qatari supply leaves buyers fighting for substitutes. Diesel is next. Diesel powers industry, freight, farms, equipment, and a substantial share of Europe’s cars. The price at British pumps has just reached a record. Higher diesel costs travel and transport with every delivery of food, medicine, and manufactured goods. Middle Eastern refinery damage and disrupted Russian refining have squeezed global supplies. Gulf refiners have not all stopped producing, and Hormuz is not sealed to every vessel. But supplies and shipments are greatly reduced. Its no accident that their are no reliable numbers enviable. Even so a tanker making it through today is no guarantee that the next cargo arrives on time, at the old freight rate, or at the old insurance cost. Or arrives at all. And then Washington enters the picture. President Trump raised the possibility of restricting American diesel exports to ease pressure at home. And he could at any time.. remember America first. The White House later denied that a ninety-day ban was being prepared, and the energy secretary questioned whether a ban would even work. So there is no enacted export ban to report so far. In a sign of concern Europe’s energy commissioner has urged the United States to keep diesel flowing. That tells you how much a credible threat can matter when the market is already tight. Again I remind you with Trump its America first and America also has price and supply issues. Hormuz is a choke point for Gulf energy. Qatar’s lost LNG deliveries push gas buyers scrambling for replacement cargoes. Refinery disruption constrains diesel. A possible American export restriction threatens one of the remaining sources of some supplies. Meanwhile, Europe starts winter with less stored gas than usual. Each pressure point can amplify the next. Here is my disaster worse case. Suppose winter turns hard and the disruptions persist which is my bet.. Storage draws down quickly. LNG bidders raise prices against one another. Families shut off rooms to save on heat. Factories cut shifts or stop lines. Diesel becomes so expensive that some routes no longer pay; if deliveries also fail, trucks sit still. Governments scramble to protect essential users. And where power systems are strained, the lights could go out. You do not need every one of those failures for people to suffer and we already have the biggest energy crises ever. . The price crisis arrives first. The pensioner rationing heat and the factory laying off a shift are living through an energy crisis even while fuel remains technically available. A physical shortage would take the same crisis to another level. I am not asking you to take a blackout as a forecast carved in stone. Weather can be mild. Ships can return. Replacement cargoes can arrive. Negotiations could reopen dependable routes. But the relevant question is not whether Europe survives an ordinary winter. It is how much margin remains if winter is severe and supply stays unreliable. So follow four measures with me: gas storage drawdowns, LNG cargo arrivals, diesel inventories and deliveries, and the actual flow of ships through Hormuz. Listen carefully when governments say supply is secure today. Then ask whether it will remain secure at a price homes and industry can pay. And in what quantities. Gas for heat and power. Diesel for the road and the factory. Qatar’s missing cargoes. A threatened American export embargo. A damaged, uncertain Gulf supply chain. Remember we are seeing the biggest supply cuts ever. And global inventories are at hand to mouth levels. Their are no excess inventories. No margin for error and Government strategic supplies are running out.

Nick Guarino

 

Trump: US, Iran teams spoke with mediators

United States President Donald Trump confirmed on Monday that both a US delegation and an Iranian team have spoken to mediators to exchange views on ending the conflict. However, he did not provide any further details about those conversations. “We’re gonna win. As far as I’m concerned, it’s gonna be one way or the other. It’s gonna go pretty quickly,” Trump told reporters at the White House. Furthermore, the US president reiterated that the US will win the war “very soon,” which will lead to a significant decline in oil and gas prices.

NN: Trump needs a rabbit out of his hat before the elections. Iran knows that after the elections the kid gloves comes off. Trump has nothing to lose. He is free to follow his animal instincts. Iran is better off getting a deal now where Trumps has to pay attention to public opinion. To be clear here any deal is a way for Iran to buy time. Any agreement will ultimately  fail. Because the Ayatollahs have nothing to lose. They will still make a play for the only thing that can save them… Nukes!

 

Trump may ease Iran sanctions, release frozen assets

United States President Donald Trump is said to be considering easing sanctions on Iran and releasing frozen Iranian assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue, sources told Axios reporter Barak Ravid on Monday. The development follows Iran’s proposed seven-day roadmap to end the war with the United States, under which it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, secure an easing of sanctions on its oil exports, and gain access to an estimated $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets. However, President Trump publicly rejected the offer. US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz explained that Trump declined the plan as Tehran demanded sanctions relief and access to frozen assets before nuclear negotiations. “They were asking for everything up front, with a promise that they would then talk,” Waltz added.

NN: See BlaclMask Pod cast Titled: Trumps Pulls a Rabbit Out of His Hat

Israel’s Netanyahu, at UN, calls accusations of genocide in Gaza ‘the biggest lie of the century’

Lashing out at his country’s critics, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu angrily dismissed allegations of Israeli genocide in Gaza as “the biggest lie of the century” in a defiant speech to the U.N. General Assembly that asserted his nation’s right to wage war against Iran. Scores of delegates trooped out of the hall in protest. Netanyahu addressed the plenum after days of speeches by world leaders condemning Israel’s war in Gaza and accusing him of orchestrating a genocide against the Palestinian people. At times, the Israeli leader, facing a tough race for re-election next month, became emotional and indignant as he lectured his critics, among them New York’s mayor. Netanyahu, his voice rising in emphasis, said attacking Iran “was one of the easiest decisions I’ve ever had to make” and denounced as “moral cowards” a mass of delegates who walked out of the hall when he took the podium to speak. “In defending itself, Israel is also defending many of the countries whose delegates just left this hall,” Netanyahu said. “In fact, I want you to know that many of their leaders even thank us privately for taking out Iran’s nukes.” When Netanyahu walked to the rostrum, a mix of cheers, boos and mass walkouts erupted. Scores of delegates marched out and a majority of visible seats sat empty afterward. “Order in the hall, please,” General Assembly President Khalilur Rahman said repeatedly. “If there are any other moral cowards who have not yet left this hall, please do so now,” Netanyahu said. Netanyahu reminded the assembly of the scale of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack in which Hamas militants killed about 1,200 people.

“This is equal to 40,000 innocent Americans slaughtered in less than 24 hours,” he said, or 16 times the death count of the 9/11 attacks that left nearly 3,000 people dead in New York and more in Pennsylvania and at the Pentagon. Netanyahu said the attack left Israel with no choice but to hit Hamas hard.  While the war in Iran has been inconclusive and caused havoc on the global economy, Netanyahu insisted he had made the right decision. He thanked U.S. President Donald Trump for taking decisive action against Iran, and predicted Iran’s theocratic government would fall. Trump made a similar assertion at the outset of the war that began nearly seven months ago. Netanyahu, known for using visual aids during his General Assembly speeches, at one point held up a pager while reminding the audience of the Sept. 17, 2024, attack in which Israel remotely detonatedthousands of pagers that had been distributed to the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon. The pager attack wounded more than 3,000 people and killed 12. Netanyahu dismissed incidents of Israeli settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank as a “handful of young juvenile delinquents” throwing stones, chopping down olive trees and lighting fires.“I can’t stand that. I won’t stand for vigilantism,” the prime minister said before accusing foreign leaders and the international press of distorting the scale of violence in the West Bank. Netanyahu also accused New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani of spreading lies about Israel and endangering Jewish New Yorkers with his criticism of the country’s military actions in Gaza. Before the prime minister arrived in New York, Mamdani called him a “war criminal” and pushed for his arrest. The mayor has acknowledged that New York does not have the authority to execute an International Criminal Court warrant but urged federal authorities to do so.

 

Trump Rejects Iran Proposal — But Is a Joke Deal Still Coming?

 

iran targets.jpg

President Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s latest proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump turned down Iran’s proposal to partially open the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear discussions if Washington ended the blockade. US Officials stated that Trump did not accept the terms because he is doubtful that Tehran will fulfill them, as the blockade has severely hurt the country’s economy.  Trump is also expected to resume military airstrikes after the November midterms. The final decisions will depend on political developments and available defense supplies. Meanwhile, Trump published an image on Truth Social depicting the Strait of Hormuz labeled as “Trump Strait. Iran, however, says diplomacy is still alive. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran transmitted a concrete seven-day plan to Washington through Qatar. Under the proposal, once the necessary conditions were accepted, the timetable would begin and the Strait could reopen within seven days. That distinction is important: Trump has rejected this proposal, but negotiations themselves may not necessarily be over.

 

My perspective is based on the fact Trump has spent decades negotiating by rejecting an opening proposal, increasing pressure and then returning to the negotiating table when he believes better terms are available.  The United States has already expended enormous military resources in the conflict. Questions have been raised publicly about U.S. weapons inventories, although Trump has disputed reports that American stockpiles are running dangerously low. Sources indicate that a no limits attack on a expanded target list will bring down the regime. It is viewed that Iran’s ability to retaliate is  extremely limited.

The November midterm elections add another consideration. Trump has publicly discussed the possibility of an attack after the elections, while a desperate Iran is signaling that it wants an agreement sooner. That leaves room for another round of bargaining.

My market view view is that an agreement could emerge within the next week or two, potentially beginning with a staged or partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The next proposal—not the rejected one—may therefore be the proposal that matters.  Iran has demonstrated that reopening Hormuz is negotiable. Washington has demonstrated that the present Iranian offer is not sufficient. The question now is whether Iran changes the terms enough to bring Washington back to the table. In negotiations, “no” today does not necessarily mean “no” next week.  Oil prices will drop if a deal is made to the lower nineties. Giving us a opportunity to layer in more positions at bargain prices to enhance our pyramid trade. 

TO be clear the deal may last a month or two with lots of speed bumps. Here is the important part after the midterm election all out war will break out with coordinated attacks by both Israel, gulf states and the United States. This is not only the pause that refreshes. But the pause that allows the US to rearm Israel  and the Sunni oil states desperate to neuter Iran.

Israel’s Netanyahu, at UN, calls accusations of genocide in Gaza ‘the biggest lie of the century’

Lashing out at his country’s critics, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu angrily dismissed allegations of Israeli genocide in Gaza as “the biggest lie of the century” in a defiant speech to the U.N. General Assembly that asserted his nation’s right to wage war against Iran. Scores of delegates trooped out of the hall in protest. Netanyahu addressed the plenum after days of speeches by world leaders condemning Israel’s war in Gaza and accusing him of orchestrating a genocide against the Palestinian people. At times, the Israeli leader, facing a tough race for re-election next month, became emotional and indignant as he lectured his critics, among them New York’s mayor. Netanyahu, his voice rising in emphasis, said attacking Iran “was one of the easiest decisions I’ve ever had to make” and denounced as “moral cowards” a mass of delegates who walked out of the hall when he took the podium to speak. “In defending itself, Israel is also defending many of the countries whose delegates just left this hall,” Netanyahu said. “In fact, I want you to know that many of their leaders even thank us privately for taking out Iran’s nukes.” When Netanyahu walked to the rostrum, a mix of cheers, boos and mass walkouts erupted. Scores of delegates marched out and a majority of visible seats sat empty afterward. “Order in the hall, please,” General Assembly President Khalilur Rahman said repeatedly. “If there are any other moral cowards who have not yet left this hall, please do so now,” Netanyahu said.  Netanyahu’s remarks — which at times sounded like a stump speech — were aimed largely at the audience at home as the country prepares for elections on Oct. 27. It was delivered during the evening prime time in Israel and filled with standard talking points used to defend policies in the occupied West Bank and treatment of the Palestinians. Netanyahu reminded the assembly of the scale of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack in which Hamas militants killed about 1,200 people. “This is equal to 40,000 innocent Americans slaughtered in less than 24 hours,” he said, or 16 times the death count of the 9/11 attacks that left nearly 3,000 people dead in New York and more in Pennsylvania and at the Pentagon. Netanyahu said the attack left Israel with no choice but to hit Hamas hard. 

NN: Love Israel hate Israel they are here to stay!