The United Kingdom government is expected to postpone a decision on the North Sea’s Jackdaw gas field until late autumn, The Telegraph reported on Friday, citing Whitehall sources. Approval had reportedly been anticipated as early as Monday but is now expected after the October 8 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, where Labour faces a challenge from the Green Party. The delay would also move the decision beyond Labour’s conference later this month. However, the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero denied that a timetable had been agreed, stressing that the decision formally rests with Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh. US President Donald Trump claimed the action would solve British energy problems and make the country wealthy.
Houthis advance along Yemeni coast, threaten Saudi oil exports in the Red Sea
If the Houthis were to gain control of the waterway on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula from the Strait of Hormuz, it could give their backer Iran a critical advantage in the war with the United States, reducing supplies through a second major transit corridor and sending oil prices surging. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has relied on the Red Sea route since the Iran conflict effectively closed Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil used to flow. Yemeni government forces and their allies are relocating south along the Red Sea coast to Dhubab on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, across from Perim Island, government military sources said. Control of Dhubab and the island is key to gaining hold of the strait, they said.
NN: Another choke point. Its no accident the Iranians are playing the Houthis card.
Oil continues rally, WTI surges 7%
Crude oil futures continued their rally on Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumping by more than 7% as investors kept an eye on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, amid Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) threats of retaliating tenfold to any US attacks. Traders also digested today’s report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which revised its oil demand projections up to 2.4 million barrels per day in 2027.
WTI for October settlements surged by 7.17%% at 2:14 pm ET to $102.94 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent for November deliveries soared by 6.76% to $108.21 per barrel at 2:15 pm ET.
NN: This is a red hot market oil is blazing!
Oil extends gains, jumps 4.5%
The prices of oil futures extended gains on Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hitting $100 a barrel as investors assessed the possibility of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. United States President Donald Trump declared yesterday that the war in Iran will end “immediately after” midterm elections in November, while oil prices will be “tumbling down.” In addition, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its monthly report earlier today that worldwide oil demand is expected to grow by 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2027.
WTI for October deliveries increased by 4.74% at 8:39 am ET to $100.60 per barrel. Brent for November shipments jumped by 4.53% to $105.79 per barrel at the same time.
Nick Not:e Double Down and Pyramid this trade
US aircraft said to be damaged in Iranian strike on Jordan
Several United States military aircraft were damaged in recent Iranian strikes on Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, CBS News reported, citing people with direct knowledge of the matter. Around 8 F-15 fighter jets sustained light damage and were returned to service, while an A-10 Thunderbolt was struck and lost a wing, according to the report. CBS also said US forces fired more than 30 Patriot missiles while defending against the Iranian attack.
Brent crude rises above $100 a barrel as Middle East conflict escalates
SINGAPORE, Sept 9 (Reuters) – Benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose past $100 a barrel on Wednesday, breaching the symbolic barrier for the first time since July 24 as intensifying conflict in the Middle East fuelled growing concern about oil flows from the region.
Brent crude futures rose $2.15, or 2.2%, to $100.07 a barrel by 0721 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.70, or 1.83%, at $94.73 a barrel.
Brent crude prices have risen by a quarter since early last month as hopes fade for a permanent resolution to the six-month-old U.S.-Iran conflict. This week, attacks by Iran-backed Houthis on Saudi energy facilities set oil installations ablaze, threatening a significant expansion of the conflict. The Houthi attacks could threaten crude shipments via the Red Sea, which has been a key alternative route to the crucial Strait of Hormuz, where crude flows have been severely curtailed since the February 28 start of the Iran war. A growing number of banks, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and HSBC, have raised their crude price forecasts in recent days. In the week before a resumption in fighting on August 30, roughly 8 million to 9 million bpd had flowed through Hormuz, double the previous week’s volume, according to Rystad Energy’s Chief Economist Claudio Galimberti, although more recently it had fallen below 2 million bpd. While non-OPEC oil producers including the United States, Canada and Guyana have ramped up output, the International Energy Agency said last month it expected global oil supply would fall this year by 4.3 million bpd, or about 4%.
NN Further proof that our Double Down Trade is the right thing to do. Back your bet!
WTI up 3% after strikes on Saudi energy facilities
Crude oil prices rose on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbing over 3%, as military conflict in the Middle East intensified with attacks on key energy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia halted operations at some energy facilities after Houthi militants based in Yemen struck targets in the kingdom, wounding more than 70 people, the Energy Ministry said. Supply fears have compounded since the US military struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday in retaliation for Iranian ballistic-missile attacks on two US Navy warships.
WTI for deliveries in October climbed by 3.32% at 4:21 am ET, going for $94.54 per barrel, while Brent for settlements in November gained 2.32% at the same time and sold for $99.27 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs Warns Oil Could Hit $120 as Shipping Risks Rise
Oil prices could surge to as much as $120 per barrel if attacks on shipping in the Middle East intensify, according to Goldman Sachs. “Events over the last few days do suggest that the risk of shipping disruptions broadening and intensifying is an important one,” Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg TV in an interview on Monday. Oil prices have rallied in recent days amid the re-escalation of hostilities and jumped early on Monday in Asian trading to the highest level since mid-July, nearing the $100 per barrel threshold. The situation escalated further this weekend after the U.S. said it had struck three Iranian oil tankers in response to the IRGC targeting two U.S. warships with ballistic missiles. Following the attacks, Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said that the era of “proportionate responses” is now over, and warned that future retaliations from Iran will be “faster, heavier and more painful.” Iran also said it would announce in the coming days a new “exclusion zone” which “will begin from the line of the U.S. naval blockade, extend toward the Strait of Hormuz, and from this side continue into the Persian Gulf.” “Any ship that enters this area with the intention of passing through the Strait of Hormuz and is identified will be placed on our sanctions list,” Mohsen Rezaei, the new head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on Sunday. Early on Monday, Goldman sees “meaningful upside to crude oil prices,”
NN: We are off to the races. Time to Double Down
Oil Trading Boom
You have watched your account do exactly what we said it could do. The oil trades you are holding right now are up. That is not a projection and it is not a promise. It is a result you can see in your own account, in real time. Take a moment with that thought.
We built this relationship because you wanted a partner who reads markets, spots the move early, and builds a strategy that respects the risk. That is exactly why we are writing to you today. We believe oil is heading well past a hundred and fifty dollars a barrel.
Where we believe this goes
$150 A Barrel
Brent has held above ninety dollars for most of August, and crude is trading in the mid-nineties today. That range is the floor now, not the ceiling.
The oil market is badly undersupplied. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has not been lifted. More Gulf states are being hit. Every peace negotiation has failed, no new talks are scheduled, and the fighting has started again.
The warning lights are flashing
An energy crisis does not announce itself once. It announces itself everywhere at the same time.
✓ European natural gas storage is running at about half of where it should be heading into the winter heating season.
✓ US diesel has passed six dollars a gallon on the East Coast and seven on the West Coast. The highest ever recorded.
✓ Global oil supply is short by more than four billion barrels.
✓ Emergency reserve inventories are running out.
✓ Refinery spreads have never been wider.
✓ Distillate prices are printing all-time record highs.
✓ And the heaviest demand season of the year, winter heating, has not even started.
$150 oil will be the new normal.
A golden opportunity for your golden years.
Let us face facts. It takes more money to finance your life as you age. Looking after your health gets expensive: the blood tests, the colonoscopy, the cataract surgery, and never forget the dental bills.
I find myself hiring people for jobs I used to do, like home repairs. Add the rising price of everything I need, water heaters, pool pumps, solar batteries, lumber, with the quality dropping at the same time, and I am catching hell. My twenty-dollar steak dinner is a hundred dollars. My monthly cash burn is soaring.
And it does not stop there. The kids come for more help. Friends and extended family are hard to say no to.
Let me tell you a story
Back in the day, when my family had the seafood factory in Honduras, I got trapped into financing and helping run that far-flung enterprise. As is customary at Christmas, people came and asked for help.
I found myself sitting under the Christmas tree handing out gifts to the employees and the clients. Everyone got a turkey, a crate of grapes and a big box of apples.
Then came the requests. Tuition for a kid in school. Cancer therapy for a mother. Cash to fix the car to get to work. Money to save a simple house from foreclosure. As the list got longer and more expensive I got a case of the dumb ass and said to one young girl: nobody helps me, but I have to help you.
She said: we need your help, but you do not need anyone, because it is God who helps you. Shot down in flames.
The position
This could be my greatest trade ever
And I have had some big ones. Inventories have never been lower as a percentage of demand, and the prospect of disruption now runs further into the future than at any point I can remember. There is no end in sight to the embargo on Gulf supply. If relief does not come soon, we are looking at rationing this winter.
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4 BILLION
Barrels short. The gap the market still has to price in.
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HALF
Europe’s gas storage, with winter in front of it.
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$7.00
A gallon for West Coast diesel. A record, and it is still September.
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ZERO
Negotiations on the table. Nothing scheduled, nothing pending.
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We have to be crystal clear
What we see is a strong probability, not a guarantee, that this supply crisis drives oil to new all-time highs. Oil is volatile. Prices move against a position as fast as they move for it. You already know this from experience, and that is exactly what makes the gains sitting in your account meaningful.
Your current funding level caps how much of this move you can capture. Adding capital increases your trading capacity and your exposure to the upside we are projecting, under the same risk principles that have governed your account so far. More capital deployed also means more capital at risk. We want you going into this with total clarity on that trade-off.
The recommendation
It is time to double down on this oil trade
Double your positions at each average point, and duplicate the positions you are already holding.
If you want to talk through increasing your funding to take fuller advantage of the oil position, call Jim and Nick Guarino directly.
CALL JIM AND NICK GUARINO · +1 913 871 0701
Omega International Trust Ltd
Nick Guarino
Omega International Trust Ltd
Omega International Trust Ltd
Nick note
Double Down
A very successful trading technique. When you are in a trade that is making money and your reasoning is proving out, you increase your leverage by doubling the position as the market keeps moving your way.
Funnily enough, I did not discover it trading.
In the late 1970s, a new casino opened in Atlantic City, Resorts International. Friends talked me into going one weekend. I walked in with forty dollars in my pocket and was introduced to card counting at blackjack, which was easy for me because I remember cards. They were dealing from a four-deck shoe, all cards face up, and there was a two-dollar table, which made it easy to practice on a small budget. Remembering the cards came naturally. The new dealers and the pit boss had no idea I was tracking the count. That first night I turned forty dollars into four hundred.
As I got confident I moved up to the higher-limit tables. That is where I learned splitting, specifically splitting tens and face cards under very specific conditions. Every book says never split tens. Card counting changes the math. When the count heavily favored me and the dealer was showing a bust card, splitting became a weapon. Sometimes I split the same hand several times, four hands in play, and it looked insane to everyone around me. I was not guessing and I was not lucky. I was following the numbers.
All good things end. After taking a huge pot, on my way to cash in, the heavies walked me to the office. They had finally worked out what I was doing. What took you so long? I finally reached out to my uncle Andy, and he intervened. I left with all my fingers and all my cash because the family made a call, and I promised him I would never do it again.
It turned out to be a good thing, because I took the technique somewhere else and used it not for thousands, not for tens of thousands, but for millions. When the odds are in my favor I double down. If a trade is moving my way and the fundamentals keep backing me up, I double my position.
Discipline, not hope
The key is discipline. You do not press because you are hoping. You press because the odds are demonstrably in your favor. Now is just such a time in our oil trade.
This is a dream come true. In trading terms, we need to double down.
A trade like this does not come every day. But when it does, it can change your life.
Risk capital only
This trade involves only your genuine risk capital, the money you can afford to lose. It carries a significant risk of loss. Do not invest your retirement savings or any funds you cannot afford to lose.
Saudi Aramco oil facility hit in fresh strike
Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities in the southwest city of Jizan were attacked on Monday, the Financial Times reported, citing two people familiar with the matter. The extent of the damage is still being assessed, and no information has been shared about the attack’s origin. One source described the incident as similar in scale to a Houthi strike last month that temporarily disrupted production at the same refinery. Located near Saudi Arabia’s border with Yemen, Jizan has previously been targeted several times by Houthi forces. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said last month that earlier attacks caused some production interruptions but had no material operational or financial impact.
NN: More production lost to the market.