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Brent crude rises above $100 a barrel as Middle East conflict escalates

SINGAPORE, Sept 9 (Reuters) – Benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose past $100 a barrel on Wednesday, breaching the symbolic barrier for the first time ​since July 24 as intensifying conflict in the Middle ‌East fuelled growing concern about oil flows from the region.
Brent crude futures rose $2.15, or 2.2%, to $100.07 a barrel by 0721 GMT, while U.S. West ​Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.70, or 1.83%, at $94.73 a ​barrel.
 Brent crude prices have risen by a quarter since ⁠early last month as hopes fade for a permanent resolution ​to the six-month-old U.S.-Iran conflict. This week, attacks by Iran-backed Houthis ​on Saudi energy facilities set oil installations ablaze, threatening a significant expansion of the conflict. The Houthi attacks could threaten crude shipments via the Red Sea, which ​has been a key alternative route to the crucial Strait ​of Hormuz, where crude flows have been severely curtailed since the February ‌28 ⁠start of the Iran war. A growing number of banks, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and HSBC, have raised their crude price forecasts in recent days. In the week before a resumption in fighting ​on August 30, ​roughly 8 ⁠million to 9 million bpd had flowed through Hormuz, double the previous week’s volume, according to ​Rystad Energy’s Chief Economist Claudio Galimberti, although more ​recently ⁠it had fallen below 2 million bpd. While non-OPEC oil producers including the United States, Canada and Guyana have ramped up output, the ⁠International ​Energy Agency said last month it expected ​global oil supply would fall this year by 4.3 million bpd, or about ​4%.
NN Further proof that our Double Down Trade is the right thing to do. Back your bet!
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WTI up 3% after strikes on Saudi energy facilities

Crude oil prices rose on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbing over 3%, as military conflict in the Middle East intensified with attacks on key energy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia halted operations at some energy facilities after Houthi militants based in Yemen struck targets in the kingdom, wounding more than 70 people, the Energy Ministry said. Supply fears have compounded since the US military struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday in retaliation for Iranian ballistic-missile attacks on two US Navy warships.

WTI for deliveries in October climbed by 3.32% at 4:21 am ET, going for $94.54 per barrel, while Brent for settlements in November gained 2.32% at the same time and sold for $99.27 per barrel.

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Goldman Sachs Warns Oil Could Hit $120 as Shipping Risks Rise

Oil prices could surge to as much as $120 per barrel if attacks on shipping in the Middle East intensify, according to Goldman Sachs. “Events over the last few days do suggest that the risk of shipping disruptions broadening and intensifying is an important one,” Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg TV in an interview on Monday. Oil prices have rallied in recent days amid the re-escalation of hostilities and jumped early on Monday in Asian trading to the highest level since mid-July, nearing the $100 per barrel threshold. The situation escalated further this weekend after the U.S. said it had struck three Iranian oil tankers in response to the IRGC targeting two U.S. warships with ballistic missiles. Following the attacks, Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said that the era of “proportionate responses” is now over, and warned that future retaliations from Iran will be “faster, heavier and more painful.” Iran also said it would announce in the coming days a new “exclusion zone” which “will begin from the line of the U.S. naval blockade, extend toward the Strait of Hormuz, and from this side continue into the Persian Gulf.” “Any ship that enters this area with the intention of passing through the Strait of Hormuz and is identified will be placed on our sanctions list,” Mohsen Rezaei, the new head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on Sunday. Early on Monday, Goldman sees “meaningful upside to crude oil prices,”

NN: We are off to the races. Time to Double Down

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Oil Trading Boom

You have watched your account do exactly what we said it could do. The oil trades you are holding right now are up. That is not a projection and it is not a promise. It is a result you can see in your own account, in real time. Take a moment with that thought.

We built this relationship because you wanted a partner who reads markets, spots the move early, and builds a strategy that respects the risk. That is exactly why we are writing to you today. We believe oil is heading well past a hundred and fifty dollars a barrel.

Where we believe this goes
$150 A Barrel
Brent has held above ninety dollars for most of August, and crude is trading in the mid-nineties today. That range is the floor now, not the ceiling.

The oil market is badly undersupplied. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has not been lifted. More Gulf states are being hit. Every peace negotiation has failed, no new talks are scheduled, and the fighting has started again.

The warning lights are flashing

An energy crisis does not announce itself once. It announces itself everywhere at the same time.

✓  European natural gas storage is running at about half of where it should be heading into the winter heating season.
✓  US diesel has passed six dollars a gallon on the East Coast and seven on the West Coast. The highest ever recorded.
✓  Global oil supply is short by more than four billion barrels.
✓  Emergency reserve inventories are running out.
✓  Refinery spreads have never been wider.
✓  Distillate prices are printing all-time record highs.
✓  And the heaviest demand season of the year, winter heating, has not even started.

$150 oil will be the new normal.
A golden opportunity for your golden years.

Let us face facts. It takes more money to finance your life as you age. Looking after your health gets expensive: the blood tests, the colonoscopy, the cataract surgery, and never forget the dental bills.

I find myself hiring people for jobs I used to do, like home repairs. Add the rising price of everything I need, water heaters, pool pumps, solar batteries, lumber, with the quality dropping at the same time, and I am catching hell. My twenty-dollar steak dinner is a hundred dollars. My monthly cash burn is soaring.

And it does not stop there. The kids come for more help. Friends and extended family are hard to say no to.

Let me tell you a story

Back in the day, when my family had the seafood factory in Honduras, I got trapped into financing and helping run that far-flung enterprise. As is customary at Christmas, people came and asked for help.

I found myself sitting under the Christmas tree handing out gifts to the employees and the clients. Everyone got a turkey, a crate of grapes and a big box of apples.

Then came the requests. Tuition for a kid in school. Cancer therapy for a mother. Cash to fix the car to get to work. Money to save a simple house from foreclosure. As the list got longer and more expensive I got a case of the dumb ass and said to one young girl: nobody helps me, but I have to help you.

She said: we need your help, but you do not need anyone, because it is God who helps you. Shot down in flames.

The position

This could be my greatest trade ever

And I have had some big ones. Inventories have never been lower as a percentage of demand, and the prospect of disruption now runs further into the future than at any point I can remember. There is no end in sight to the embargo on Gulf supply. If relief does not come soon, we are looking at rationing this winter.

4 BILLION
Barrels short. The gap the market still has to price in.
HALF
Europe’s gas storage, with winter in front of it.
$7.00
A gallon for West Coast diesel. A record, and it is still September.
ZERO
Negotiations on the table. Nothing scheduled, nothing pending.
We have to be crystal clear

What we see is a strong probability, not a guarantee, that this supply crisis drives oil to new all-time highs. Oil is volatile. Prices move against a position as fast as they move for it. You already know this from experience, and that is exactly what makes the gains sitting in your account meaningful.

Your current funding level caps how much of this move you can capture. Adding capital increases your trading capacity and your exposure to the upside we are projecting, under the same risk principles that have governed your account so far. More capital deployed also means more capital at risk. We want you going into this with total clarity on that trade-off.

The recommendation

It is time to double down on this oil trade

Double your positions at each average point, and duplicate the positions you are already holding.

If you want to talk through increasing your funding to take fuller advantage of the oil position, call Jim and Nick Guarino directly.

CALL JIM AND NICK GUARINO · +1 913 871 0701

Omega International Trust Ltd
Nick Guarino
Omega International Trust Ltd
Nick note
Double Down

A very successful trading technique. When you are in a trade that is making money and your reasoning is proving out, you increase your leverage by doubling the position as the market keeps moving your way.

Funnily enough, I did not discover it trading.

In the late 1970s, a new casino opened in Atlantic City, Resorts International. Friends talked me into going one weekend. I walked in with forty dollars in my pocket and was introduced to card counting at blackjack, which was easy for me because I remember cards. They were dealing from a four-deck shoe, all cards face up, and there was a two-dollar table, which made it easy to practice on a small budget. Remembering the cards came naturally. The new dealers and the pit boss had no idea I was tracking the count. That first night I turned forty dollars into four hundred.

As I got confident I moved up to the higher-limit tables. That is where I learned splitting, specifically splitting tens and face cards under very specific conditions. Every book says never split tens. Card counting changes the math. When the count heavily favored me and the dealer was showing a bust card, splitting became a weapon. Sometimes I split the same hand several times, four hands in play, and it looked insane to everyone around me. I was not guessing and I was not lucky. I was following the numbers.

All good things end. After taking a huge pot, on my way to cash in, the heavies walked me to the office. They had finally worked out what I was doing. What took you so long? I finally reached out to my uncle Andy, and he intervened. I left with all my fingers and all my cash because the family made a call, and I promised him I would never do it again.

It turned out to be a good thing, because I took the technique somewhere else and used it not for thousands, not for tens of thousands, but for millions. When the odds are in my favor I double down. If a trade is moving my way and the fundamentals keep backing me up, I double my position.

Discipline, not hope

The key is discipline. You do not press because you are hoping. You press because the odds are demonstrably in your favor. Now is just such a time in our oil trade.

This is a dream come true. In trading terms, we need to double down.

A trade like this does not come every day. But when it does, it can change your life.

Risk capital only

This trade involves only your genuine risk capital, the money you can afford to lose. It carries a significant risk of loss. Do not invest your retirement savings or any funds you cannot afford to lose.

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Saudi Aramco oil facility hit in fresh strike

Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities in the southwest city of Jizan were attacked on Monday, the Financial Times reported, citing two people familiar with the matter. The extent of the damage is still being assessed, and no information has been shared about the attack’s origin. One source described the incident as similar in scale to a Houthi strike last month that temporarily disrupted production at the same refinery. Located near Saudi Arabia’s border with Yemen, Jizan has previously been targeted several times by Houthi forces. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said last month that earlier attacks caused some production interruptions but had no material operational or financial impact.

NN: More production lost to the market.

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US destroys three IRGC oil tankers

United States Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Saturday that US forces struck three Iranian crude oil tankers after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched ballistic missiles toward two US Navy warships. CENTCOM said the US vessels avoided the Iranian attacks and no American personnel were harmed. US forces then disabled the M/T Downy off Kharg Island and the M/T Stark 1 near Jask, while “completely” destroying the M/T Kylo in the Gulf of Oman. “The three Iranian crude oil tankers are part of a multibillion-dollar shadow network that funds the IRGC and its regional proxies,” it said, adding that “Iran has no means by which to defend them.” “If you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost – taking out three of yours,” CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper said, adding that the US would “not hesitate” to defend its forces, and “if necessary, destroy Iran’s limited and exposed oil fleet.”

NN: Just when you thought it was safe to go to the gas station
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Brent Could Hit $100 Soon

B. Riley Wealth, Chief Market Strategist Art Hogan, at projected that the Brent crude oil price could hit $100 in the next week “if … there is no resolution to reopening the Strait of Hormuz”. Although Hogan highlighted that WTI crude was $10 lower, he told Rigzone that this commodity “could follow with similar trajectory over the course of the next month”. Hogan pointed out that global strategic petroleum reserves are at historic lows and that oil production capacity was under pressure from attacks across the Middle East. “Key to seeing sustainably lower oil prices comes from a credible and lasting reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,” he said. “Barring that, energy prices have only one way to go – and that significantly higher than they are now,” he warned.

Standard Chartered Bank Energy Research Head Emily Ashford,  at , outlined that the company’s “core” view on the crude oil market is that the “ongoing stalemate in the U.S.-Iran conflict means oil prices are gradually grinding higher, punctuated by sharp corrections on more positive headlines”. “We expect this trend to continue through Q3 and forecast an average Brent crude price of $85 per barrel,” Ashford noted in the report. “Middle distillates remain extremely strong, with certain geographies under extreme stress as heat and drought compound logistical challenges. We believe key middle distillate cracks could still push higher, with diesel/gasoil and jet outperforming gasoline,” Ashford added.

PRICE Futures Group, Phil Flynn, said that he didn’t think WTI would hit $100 soon. He did add, however, that Brent has a better chance to get near that figure. “Despite the recent dust up in prices the market is already settling down as overwhelming American force and the inability of Iran to respond significantly, except with occasional terror-like attacks, suggests that the regime is going to be on its last [legs],” Flynn told Rigzone. “It’s very clear that the economy in Iran is crumbling. Reports that they can’t pay their soldiers means it’s probably only a matter of time before the regime either comes to the table or fails completely,” he said. “Any sign that the conflict is going to end between the U.S. and Iran will put significant downward pressure on prices,” he warned.

Clarity Global Inc CEO  Mariia Menahem, highlighted that Brent crude was trading around $95.20 per barrel and WTI was trading near $90.77 today, after Brent settled at $95.63 and WTI at $91.01 on Wednesday. “We see the current pullback as consolidation rather than a full unwinding of the geopolitical premium,” Menahem said in the analysis. “President Trump’s statements that the U.S. could strike Iran ‘any time we want’, that further retaliation would be met at a ‘much harder and higher level’, and that an even larger attack remains possible, are keeping traders focused on supply security around the Strait of Hormuz,” Menahem warned. “At the same time, his suggestion that the conflict may not last much longer is allowing some investors to take profits, because any credible reduction in hostilities would immediately lower the risk premium embedded in crude,” the analyst continued. Menahem went on to state in the analysis that the physical oil market remains tight enough to keep prices supported. “U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels last week, while tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz remain a major market sensitivity because any disruption would threaten one of the world’s most important energy corridors,” Menahem said. “The wider supply backdrop is also restrictive, with global supply expected to fall sharply in 2026 and inventories already drawn down materially,” she added. Menahem warned, however, that demand is becoming a counterweight. “Global oil consumption is expected to weaken as high prices begin to damage usage and trade activity,” Menahem said. “This creates the central oil-market tension: geopolitical risk and limited supply are supporting Brent and WTI, but weaker consumption growth is preventing prices from rising in a straight line,” Menahem added. “From our perspective, crude is therefore trading as both a scarcity asset and a macroeconomic growth indicator at the same time,” Menahem continued.

 

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US-Iran Conflict Stuck With No End in Sight

This is the Bullshit the Liberal lefties commies are spreading. Iran needs to be put down while we can still do it easily compared to fighting a hypersonic rocket  nuclear war

The US and Iran have intensified tit-for-tat military strikes in recent days, remaining locked between ceasefire and all-out war as the White House struggles to end the six-month conflict.“Very clearly militarily, we are stalled,” Republican Representative Pat Harrigan of North Carolina, who sits on the House Armed Services Committee, said in an interview on Wednesday. “There’s no question about that.” The latest back and forth has seen Iran hit merchant vessels, spurring the US to strike Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sites that were used for targeting ships in the Strait of Hormuz. That led to Iran firing missiles and drones on US bases in the region, including in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain. Brent crude oil has climbed more than 6% this week to $95 a barrel, while US pump prices for diesel are at a four-year high. The jump in energy costs has contributed to a global bond sell-off. The hostilities have underscored Iran’s continued ability to choke a crucial maritime artery. The Hormuz strait handled a fifth of oil and liquefied natural gas flows before the war. Iran and the US seem far from getting back to formal negotiations and their so-called memorandum of understanding, signed in mid-June, expired without the sides making much progress toward a permanent peace deal. “Both sides are progressively upping the ante with new conditions for a return to talks,” Dina Esfandiary and Becca Wasser of Bloomberg Economics wrote. “This means the uneasy stalemate — even with occasional flare-ups in violence — will continue for now.” “I don’t think either side has a well-developed strategy of victory,” said Jon Alterman, global strategy and security chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “For the Iranians, mere survival is victory. For the Americans, it’s not acceptable to let the Iranians control the strait. But it’s hard to find a way to keep the Iranians from threatening the strait.” The US blockade is the best available option, and imposes considerable pressure on Iran, said Michael O’Hanlon, defense and strategy chair at the Brookings Institution. The military presence enables and complements the economic campaign spearheaded by Bessent, he said. “We can keep 15 ships operating in the Persian Gulf as long as we need to,” O’Hanlon said. “Compared to any other military operation I can think of at this stage in the showdown, this is the best one for us.” Harrigan, the Republican lawmaker, believes the US has accomplished some of the goals it laid out at the beginning of the conflict but is now “stuck.” “We have to stop fighting a limited war” indefinitely, “thinking that we’re going to use limited conflict to achieve unlimited outcomes,” he said. “What we’re doing right now is irresponsible and we need to make a decision.”

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Iran claims attacks on US bases in UAE, Kuwait…………. Iran claims three pilots of their killed in recent US strike

The Iranian Armed Forces said on Thursday that it struck the Al-Minhad Air Base in the United Arab Emirates, targeting United States forces and radar systems with missiles and drones. In addition, the military claimed it attacked Kuwait’s Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base, hitting equipment depots, satellite communication systems, and fighter jet hangars, and leaving casualties. It also warned that Iran will deliver a decisive, destructive response to any future US attacks “until the final victory and punishment of the aggressor.” Earlier today, the Kuwaiti Foreign Ministry emphasized that Iranian attacks on the country’s soil are “a direct threat” to Kuwait’s security and stability.

Iran claims three pilots killed in recent US strike

Iranian authorities reported on Thursday that three Iranian military pilots were killed in a strike earlier this week carried out by the United States.

“In the operation of the terrorist army of the United States against our country two nights ago, three Iranian army pilots were martyred,” it was said in a statement shared by Iranian media. Previously, the country’s Health Ministry announced that 18 people were killed and another 108 injured in recent airstrikes across southern Iran.

NN:  Well no need for the Bongo drums and peace crosses. Holy Shit $150 oil here we come just in time for Christmass 

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Supertankers carrying Saudi oil attacked crossing Strait of Hormuz

Two supertankers carrying Saudi oil were struck by unknown projectiles within minutes of each other while transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz late on Monday, according to shipping intelligence and tracking firms Marisks and Kpler.“The near-simultaneous incidents represent a further escalation in the threat environment within the Omani corridor,” Marisks said. The tankers each loaded 2 million barrels of Saudi crude at the Juaymah terminal last week, Kpler data showed. Saudi Aramco resumed oil loadings and sales from inside the strait in August. In the latest attacks on shipping, the Saudi Arabian-flagged very large crude carrier Sidr was struck by unknown projectiles about 16.6 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, at about 7:52 p.m. UTC (GMT), Marisks said. Minutes later, the Liberian-flagged VLCC Senegal Prosperity was reportedly struck by three unknown projectiles approximately 17 nautical miles east of Khasab, Marisks said. All crew aboard were reported safe, it added. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported three projectiles striking a tanker in the same location as it sailed out of the Strait of Hormuz, in what appeared to be the same incident. Bahri, operator of Sidr, and Sinokor, operator of Senegal Prosperity, did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Earlier on Tuesday Iranian media reported that a Saudi oil tanker was stopped while transiting through the southern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz.

NN: The number of  attacks and danages are way underreported in this latest escalation.