B. Riley Wealth, Chief Market Strategist Art Hogan, at projected that the Brent crude oil price could hit $100 in the next week “if … there is no resolution to reopening the Strait of Hormuz”. Although Hogan highlighted that WTI crude was $10 lower, he told Rigzone that this commodity “could follow with similar trajectory over the course of the next month”. Hogan pointed out that global strategic petroleum reserves are at historic lows and that oil production capacity was under pressure from attacks across the Middle East. “Key to seeing sustainably lower oil prices comes from a credible and lasting reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,” he said. “Barring that, energy prices have only one way to go – and that significantly higher than they are now,” he warned.
Standard Chartered Bank Energy Research Head Emily Ashford, at , outlined that the company’s “core” view on the crude oil market is that the “ongoing stalemate in the U.S.-Iran conflict means oil prices are gradually grinding higher, punctuated by sharp corrections on more positive headlines”. “We expect this trend to continue through Q3 and forecast an average Brent crude price of $85 per barrel,” Ashford noted in the report. “Middle distillates remain extremely strong, with certain geographies under extreme stress as heat and drought compound logistical challenges. We believe key middle distillate cracks could still push higher, with diesel/gasoil and jet outperforming gasoline,” Ashford added.
PRICE Futures Group, Phil Flynn, said that he didn’t think WTI would hit $100 soon. He did add, however, that Brent has a better chance to get near that figure. “Despite the recent dust up in prices the market is already settling down as overwhelming American force and the inability of Iran to respond significantly, except with occasional terror-like attacks, suggests that the regime is going to be on its last [legs],” Flynn told Rigzone. “It’s very clear that the economy in Iran is crumbling. Reports that they can’t pay their soldiers means it’s probably only a matter of time before the regime either comes to the table or fails completely,” he said. “Any sign that the conflict is going to end between the U.S. and Iran will put significant downward pressure on prices,” he warned.
Clarity Global Inc CEO Mariia Menahem, highlighted that Brent crude was trading around $95.20 per barrel and WTI was trading near $90.77 today, after Brent settled at $95.63 and WTI at $91.01 on Wednesday. “We see the current pullback as consolidation rather than a full unwinding of the geopolitical premium,” Menahem said in the analysis. “President Trump’s statements that the U.S. could strike Iran ‘any time we want’, that further retaliation would be met at a ‘much harder and higher level’, and that an even larger attack remains possible, are keeping traders focused on supply security around the Strait of Hormuz,” Menahem warned. “At the same time, his suggestion that the conflict may not last much longer is allowing some investors to take profits, because any credible reduction in hostilities would immediately lower the risk premium embedded in crude,” the analyst continued. Menahem went on to state in the analysis that the physical oil market remains tight enough to keep prices supported. “U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels last week, while tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz remain a major market sensitivity because any disruption would threaten one of the world’s most important energy corridors,” Menahem said. “The wider supply backdrop is also restrictive, with global supply expected to fall sharply in 2026 and inventories already drawn down materially,” she added. Menahem warned, however, that demand is becoming a counterweight. “Global oil consumption is expected to weaken as high prices begin to damage usage and trade activity,” Menahem said. “This creates the central oil-market tension: geopolitical risk and limited supply are supporting Brent and WTI, but weaker consumption growth is preventing prices from rising in a straight line,” Menahem added. “From our perspective, crude is therefore trading as both a scarcity asset and a macroeconomic growth indicator at the same time,” Menahem continued.
