- Tighter ties among Russia, China, Iran, North Korea alarm US
- US global leverage under pressure as rivals push for influenc
For months, the US has warned Iran not to send ballistic missiles to Russia and told China not to provide military components for Moscow’s war in Ukraine. But Iran is now doing just what Washington said not to and China is pushing the line. Indeed, the US and its allies are increasingly worried by the speed and intensity with which the three, along with North Korea, are deepening ties to challenge American dominance despite facing some of the most sweeping sanctions the West has ever imposed, according to officials who asked not to be identified discussing matters that are not public. The defiance fits a pattern of what outside experts — and increasingly, US and allied officials — see as the growing struggle Washington faces as its seeks to get what it wants around the world. The examples, they say, are legion. Venezuela’s authoritarian leader brushed aside a months-long US push for free and fair elections and remains in office after a vote widely seen as rigged. A Washington-led naval coalition has so far failed to lift a Houthi rebel chokehold that’s crippled shipping in the Red Sea. Washington and its allies have been pushed out of bases in Africa as China and Russia expand their reach. Beijing has only stepped up its aggression in the South China Sea. Then there are the allies. Washington finds itself unable to cajole Israel into a cease-fire deal with Hamas. “US influence is waning, and it’s waning rapidly,” said Martin Kimani, former Kenyan ambassador to the UN and director of NYU’s Center on International Cooperation. “There are rising powers that want to assert themselves more within the multilateral space — from China to others — and the Global South increasingly has a voice.” That’s the reality President Joe Biden faces as he joins more than 140 other world leaders in New York for the annual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly. The meeting is likely to underscore how the US often finds itself on the backfoot as other powers gain influence. Some 40 nations that voted to condemn Russia invasion of Ukraine last year decided to abstain on a similar motion in July. A majority of them are countries that have been vocal on the Palestinian cause, including Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. NN: China has become a formable foe. Their vulnerability is they have no oil. They are hopelessly tied to long supply lines. And solar panels cannot power ships and fighter jets
For its part, the Biden administration takes credit for assembling an alliance of more than two dozen nations supporting Ukraine in its efforts to turn back Russia’s invasion. In the Middle East, officials argue their efforts have helped limit the spread of a conflict that risks turning into a regional conflagration. They also blame Hamas, whose Oct. 7 terror attack triggered Israel’s invasion of Gaza, for blocking the cease-fire. But Washington’s strong support for Israel’s war against Hamas is draining its diplomatic currency, Kimani said. US pressure for a cease-fire so far has yielded few results despite regular trips to the region by top administration officials. Also gathering in New York this week will be officials from the Brics, which has grown to nine members, including some US allies, as well as Iran and founders Russia and China. More countries are applying to join a group that’s explicitly called for creating an alternative center of global influence, including rivals to the US dollar’s dominance. Countries outside the orbits of the US and its rivals “are seeing this new node of power emerging. It probably contributes to them staying in between both poles, contributing to a multipolarity in the world,” said Nadia Schadlow, a former top official in the administration of Donald Trump and now a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. “The US now has to manage that more effectively, which is hard.” At the same time, domestic politics in the US and Europe is pulling capitals away from international commitments, as populist leaders pushing for more isolationist policies find growing support. Moscow, meanwhile, is deepening relationships as it shares more sensitive military knowhow with Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang in return for their war aid. That process has accelerated as the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine drags toward a fourth year. “There is a perception in both China and Russia that the United States and the West are in inevitable decline,” said Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a former senior US intelligence official now at the Center for a New American Security. “Now they see the momentum moving in their favor and so they’re willing to lean in and take more risk in order to accelerate that decline.” Former President Trump has sought to exploit the chaos, saying under his leadership Russia would have never invaded Ukraine and Hamas wouldn’t have attacked Israel. But experts and analysts say the problem is deeper than that. Officially, the US adversaries deny sharing weapons and technology. But President Vladimir Putin dispatched a top aide to North Korea and Tehran – after talks in Russia with a senior Chinese official – this month and announced plans for a sweeping new strategic pact with Iran. Wave after wave of US sanctions on all those countries haven’t stopped the trade. China is finding ways to supply Russia 90% of the chips its needs to produce missiles, tanks and aircraft, according to the Hudson Institute.