US Sway Over Netanyahu Tested as Israel Vows ‘Deadly’ Iran Hit

US President Joe Biden’s first call in over a month with Benjamin Netanyahu threw into focus his limited ability to influence Israel’s prime minister over what could be an imminent strike against Iran.

“Our attack on Iran will be deadly, precise and above all surprising,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Wednesday. “They will not understand what happened and how it happened. They will see the results.”

In a sign of the tensions between Israel and the US, its major ally, the Israeli side by the next morning had released no readout of the call. Biden has warned Israel against attacking Iran’s nuclear sites, which Tehran would view as especially provocative. US officials also worry that hits on Iranian oil infrastructure would push up energy prices and hurt the global economy. The US is pressing Israel to limit its retaliation against Iran for a missile salvo last week to military targets. It is also proposing a fresh round of economic sanctions, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. Washington is aiming to give Netanyahu an off-ramp that allows him to resist calls for severe retribution from hard-line nationalists in his coalition, as well as some opposition leaders. There’s no guarantee he’ll take it, especially given the Biden administration is reluctant to cut weapons supplies to Israel or take other measures that might force Netanyahu’s hand.

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Big ideas and open questions in the fascinating places where finance, life and culture meet. Coming soon. There are political concerns for the US. Vice President Kamala Harris is anxious to keep the conflict from draining support in battleground states ahead of the Nov. 5 election, especially Michigan, which has a substantial population of Arab and Muslim Americans. Netanyahu, who has openly touted his close relationship with Republican candidate Donald Trump though says he’s neutral, has shown little interest in helping her. “Escalation in the region helps Trump, which is also good for Bibi because it means not just four more weeks of unrestrained behavior, but four years of no American pressure,” Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, said, using Netanyahu’s nickname.