How the Islamic Republic chooses to respond to the unusually public Israeli aerial assault on its homeland could determine whether the region spirals further toward all-out war or holds steady at an already devastating and destabilizing level of violence. In the coldly calculating realm of Middle East geopolitics, a strike of the magnitude that Israel delivered Saturday would typically be met with a forceful response. A likely option would be another round of the ballistic missile barrages that Iran has already launched twice this year. Retaliating militarily would allow Iran’s clerical leadership to show strength not only to its own citizens but also to Hamas in Gaza and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the militant groups battling Israel that are the vanguard of Tehran’s so-called Axis of Resistance. It is too soon to say whether Iran’s leadership will follow that path. Tehran may decide against forcefully retaliating directly for now, not least because doing so might reveal its weaknesses and invite a more potent Israeli response, analysts say. “Iran will play down the impact of the strikes, which are in fact quite serious,” said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the London-based think tank Chatham House. She said Iran is “boxed in” by military and economic constraints, and the uncertainty caused by the U.S. election and its impact on American policy in the region. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s ultimate decision-maker, was also measured in his first comments on the strike Sunday. He said the attack “should not be exaggerated nor downplayed,” and he stopped short of calling for an immediate military response. Saturday’s strikes targeted Iranian air defense missile batteries and missile production facilities, according to the Israeli military. “Israel has yet again shown its military precision and capabilities are far superior to that of Iran,” she said. For decades, leaders and strategists in the region have speculated about whether and how Israel might one day openly strike Iran, just as they wondered what direct attacks by Iran, rather than by its proxy militant groups, would look like. Today, it’s a reality. Yet the playbook on either side isn’t clear, and may still be being written.“ There appears to be a major mismatch both in terms of the sword each side wields and the shield it can deploy,” Vaez said. “While both sides have calibrated and calculated how quickly they climb the escalation ladder, they are in an entirely new territory now, where the new red lines are nebulous and the old ones have turned pink,” he said. NN: Iran is blinded by their hatred. They will attack again and soon.