Every day we move closer to losing oil from major producers due to embargoes and escalating war. On the list of at risk oil supplies are:
Russia: 4,000,000 BPD
Iran: 3,259,000 BPD
Venezuela : 1,000,000 BPD
Iraq: northern routes through Syria 2,500,000 BPD
Syria: 400,000 BPD
Total amounts of oil from or through war torn countries is 11,429,000 BPD. Of course not all of that oil is a risk. But consider this world oil demand is around 100,000,000 BPD OPEC + produces 30,000,000 BPD or 30% of world oil consumption. 1/3 of that production comes from at risk suppliers listed above. Or 10% of world consumption.
Global spare oil capacity is only 5,000,000 BPD at best . With 3,000,000 of claimed spare capacity held by Saudi Arabia. Most likely the real number is half that
Punchline: If just hall of oil embargoes proposed and threatened take affect the oil lost to the market will absorb total spare oil capacity and them sum.
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