President Vladimir Putin is quietly laying the groundwork for a potential conflict with NATO, reports suggest. Russia is expanding its troop presence along stretches of its border with the West, ramping up its military spending at a record pace, and intensifying covert operations against the West. NATO must “expect the unexpected” and prepare for a Russian attack, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, the alliance’s military committee chief, said in Brussels last January.
Meanwhile, intelligence and military officials have warned in recent weeks that NATO member states must be ready for a potential conflict with Russia.
Russia is expanding its military presence along its borders with Finland and Norway in preparation for a potential face off with the military alliance, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday. The Kremlin is planning to establish a new army headquarters in the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, about 100 miles east of the Finnish border, which will oversee tens of thousands of troops over the next several years. Many of these troops will be deployed to the area after the Ukraine war ends. At the same time, Russia is ramping up military recruitment and accelerating weapons production. Russian military experts told the newspaper that the buildup along the Finnish border is likely part of President Vladimir Putin’s broader preparations for a possible conflict with NATO. “When the troops are back [from Ukraine], they will be looking over the border at a country they consider an adversary,” said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based defense think tank. “The logic of the last decade shows we’re expecting some conflict with NATO.” There are indications that Russia is starting to hold back recently produced equipment from deployment to Ukraine, and is instead reallocating some personnel to other regions, including the Baltics and Nordics, Edward Arnold, senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, told Newsweek.
Germany’s intelligence community has sounded the alarm that Russia’s ambitions go beyond Ukraine. A report by Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) in March warned that Putin is preparing for a conflict with NATO.
“Russia sees itself in a systemic conflict with the West and is prepared to implement its imperialistic goals through military force, even beyond Ukraine,” the report said. Meanwhile, Lithuania’s intelligence service, VSD, assessed that while Moscow may not yet be ready to launch a full-scale attack on the alliance, it may attempt to “test NATO” with a limited military operation against one or more member states to gauge how seriously the bloc will uphold its collective defense obligations. An attack by Russia on any NATO member would trigger Article 5 of the alliance’s charter, which states that a strike on one member state would be met with a collective response. The Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) also warned in February that Russia could be ready to wage a “large-scale war” in Europe within the next five years. While “there is currently no threat of a regular military attack on the Kingdom,” it is likely that the “military threat from Russia will increase over the coming years,” it said. Russia’s military spending is increasing at a record pace, with expenditures expected to reach around 120 billion euros in 2025—more than 6 percent of the country’s GDP. That’s compared to 3.6 percent prior to the war. The Russian army is also set to expand to 1.5 million troops, while the volume of weapons and equipment stationed along the NATO border is expected to grow by 30–50 percent, according to BILD’s Russia edition. According to a Military Balance report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies released February, Russia’s military expenditure has surpassed Europe. “The data indicate that Russia poses a serious threat to the United States and Europe and that the Russian government, including President Vladimir Putin, cannot be trusted,” the report said. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned Putin in March of a “devastating” response should Moscow attack any of the alliance’s members. “If anyone were to miscalculate and think they can get away with an attack on Poland or any other ally, they will be met with the full force of this fierce alliance. Our reaction will be devastating. This must be clear to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and anyone else who wants to attack us,” Rutte said.