Kyiv’s biggest European allies lined up with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to reject key elements of a US-Russian plan to end the war in Ukraine as Washington threatened to halt military support to force acceptance of the deal. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer of the UK agreed on a call with Zelenskiy on Friday that Ukraine’s armed forces must remain capable of defending its sovereignty and that the current line of contact should be the starting point for any peace talks, according to a statement from the German government.
The US has threatened to stop intelligence-sharing and weapons supplies to Ukraine and to pull out of all processes unless Kyiv agrees to the peace plan, according to people familiar with the matter. The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Reuters was first to report the threat.
Merz convened the call to formulate a response to a 28-point list of demands and proposals that Zelenskiy received from the US that would mean sweeping concessions to Vladimir Putin. The Ukrainian regions of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk would be “recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States,” according to the plan, a copy of which was seen by Bloomberg News. Ukraine would also be required to hold elections in 100 days, give up any hope of NATO membership and slash the size of its armed forces. “We are working on the document prepared by the American side. This must be a plan that ensures a real and dignified peace,” Zelenskiy posted on X after the call. “We are coordinating closely to make sure that the principled stances are taken into account.” While the US and Russia have largely sidelined European countries in their push to end the war, Europe’s response to their proposal is critical in shaping Ukraine’s next move. The European Union has been struggling to agree on a mechanism that would unlock about €140 billion ($160 billion) to sustain the Ukrainian war effort as the US dials back its support for Kyiv. European leaders will now meet on the sidelines of the Group of 20 conference in South Africa on Saturday to map out the next steps, according to a person familiar with matter. Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who’s earned the reputation of having the ear of Donald Trump, is also expected to join, according to a person briefed on the plans, who asked not to named because the talks are private. There are doubts among European leaders about the status and legitimacy of the plan that would force Kyiv to cede large chunks of territory taken by Russia, cap the size of its military and lift sanctions on Moscow over time, one official said. They also characterized it as tantamount to a capitulation by Ukraine with Russia getting what it wants, the official added, requesting anonymity to talk freely on the matter. The plan appears to maximise the potential for future Russian hybrid and false-flag operations that would see Moscow claim Ukraine breached the terms and then re-invade, a senior European official said. The official added that it very closely resembled Russia’s demands at previous talks and was completely unacceptable to Europe and Ukraine.
Many details of the plan are proposals that have been vehemently rejected by Ukraine and its allies in the past. NATO member states may also object, given that the plan would curtail the defense alliance’s ability to admit new applicants as it sees fit. Such a move would need the buy-in of all 32 of its members.
The plan entails Ukraine receiving a US security guarantee — albeit one that Washington would be compensated for. The US would also get 50% of profits to rebuild and invest in Ukraine, and enter an economic partnership with Russia once sanctions are lifted.
While White House officials said the plan had Trump’s backing, one person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations, said conversations remain fluid. A delegation of top US military officials, led by Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, was in Kyiv this week discussing avenues for progress, and options include ramping up military support, the person said.
But the scale of the concessions to Moscow — as well as the US — is massive, and would need buy-in from other countries not involved in the latest discussions. Ukraine would not only have to promise not to join NATO, but would have to enshrine such a vow in its constitution. Russia would be brought back into the Group of Eight nations, a symbolic move that would end its international isolation and is opposed by other members of the group.