2020 Election Odds: Donald Trump Has Only 33% Probability of Beating Joe Biden

As COVID-19 cases continue to surge throughout the United States while the country confronts issues of systemic racism, Donald Trump’s odds to be re-elected continue to fall. Trump is now a +175 betting underdog, giving him only a 33% implied probability of winning the election compared to Joe Biden’s 59.3% implied probability. The latest polling backs it up: According to FiveThirtyEight’s average of national polls, Biden has an average +9.6 edge over Trump — that’s tied  for Biden’s second-biggest edge over Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s average since late February. Trump’s implied probability has steadily declined since outrage over George Floyd’s death swept the nation, falling from 45.2% on June 2 to 33% on June 30. Trump hits this new low just days after The New York Times released new polling that showed him falling six to 11 points behind in six battleground states that helped deliver his 2016 victory. Nick Note: What a humiliation. Knowing Trumps ego I would not be surprised if things get much worse to see him withdraw from the election or worse. WORSE IS him declaring  a national Pandemic emergency. Freedom is won by a guy and lost by decree.