John Maynard Keynes
Rapid instability occurs because long periods of steady prosperity and investment gains encourage a diminished perception of overall market risk, which promotes the leveraged risk of investing borrowed money instead of cash. The debt-leveraged financing of speculative investments exposes investors to a potential cash flow crisis, which may begin with a short period of modestly declining asset prices. In the event of a decline, the cash generated by assets is no longer sufficient to pay off the debt used to acquire the assets. Losses on such speculative assets prompt lenders to call in their loans. This rapidly amplifies a small decline into a frank collapse of asset values, related to the degree of leverage in the market. Leveraged investors are also forced to sell less-speculative positions to cover their loans. In severe situations, no buyers bid at prices recently quoted, fearing further declines. This starts a major sell-off, leading to a sudden and precipitous collapse in market-clearing asset prices, a sharp drop in market liquidity, and a severe demand for cash.
Asset prices could be on the cusp of a sharp collapse known as a “Minsky moment,” and may retest lows last seen in March. Markets have experienced a broad bullish period in recent months as investors bet on further stimulus from governments and central banks, and the prospect of a coronavirus vaccine. Despite lingering global economic risks from the Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions, Wednesday saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both notch record highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 29,000 points for the first time since February: Nick Note: I have predicted and traded every Minsky Moment that has occurred in the past 25 years. And this next one will be then biggest EVERY. Hope you got the Balls, Brains and Bucks to come to the party!