WASHINGTON, May 14 (Reuters) – U.S. business inventories increased moderately in March, likely restrained by shortages of raw materials, which have weighed on the production of motor vehicles and other goods. Business inventories rose 0.3% after increasing 0.6% in February, the Commerce Department said on Friday. Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product. March’s gain was in line with economists’ expectations. Inventories were unchanged on a year-on-year basis in March. Retail inventories decreased 1.4% in March as estimated in an advance report published last month. That followed a 0.1% gain in February. Motor vehicle inventories plunged 6.1% as previously reported. Motor vehicle stocks are dwindling as a global semiconductor shortage weighs on auto production. Retail inventories excluding autos, which go into the calculation of GDP, increased 0.6% as estimated last month. Business inventories were depleted in the first quarter amid a burst in domestic demand, fueled by a reopening economy and massive fiscal stimulus. Inputs shortages at factories as well as a scarcity of workers at ports to offload imported consumer goods could make it difficult for businesses to rebuild stock. The inventory drawdown subtracted 2.64 percentage points from GDP growth last quarter. Still, the economy grew at a robust 6.4% annualized rate in the March-January period after expanding at a 4.3% pace in the fourth quarter. Wholesale inventories rose 1.3% in March. Stocks at manufacturers gained 0.7%. Business sales rebounded 5.7% in March after dropping 1.6% in February. At March’s sales pace, it would take 1.23 months for businesses to clear shelves, down from 1.30 months in February.

US retail sales stay flat in April, below estimates

Advance estimates of United States retail and food services sales for April stayed unchanged compared to March at $619.9 billion, failing to meet analyst expectations, the Census Bureau said in a report released on Friday. The figure went up by 51.2% annually. Total sales for the three-month period from February through April increased by 27.1% compared to the same time period of last year. Retail trade sales declined by 0.3% on a monthly level but jumped 46.1% on a yearly basis. Meanwhile, clothing and clothing accessories sales surged 726.8% year-on-year while food services and drinking places grew 116.8%.

US consumer confidence down in May

The Index of Consumer Sentiment for the United States fell 6.2% in May compared to the previous month to land at 82.8 points and fail estimates, according to the preliminary report published by the University of Michigan on Friday. Current Economic Conditions also registered a drop of 6.6% in the same period, landing at 90.8 points, while Index of Consumer Expectations fell 6.2% to 77.6 points. However, all three indexes achieved a yearly jump of over 10%.”Consumer confidence in early May tumbled due to higher inflation – the highest expected year-ahead inflation rate in the past decade,” as  well as the highest long term inflation rate.  the report explained.

Nick Note: This is the example of using a historic bias to analyze data. They are right if these numbers were generated in NORMAL times their would be a problem. In the flick of a switch you have gone for a depression shut down to a full blown economic boom….unprecedented. There  is no economic model for such a event ever.  Unfortunately economists are trained to identify past patterns to predict future events, And as you have seen surprises out of left field devastates the Wall Street market gods and they demand bail outs, The rapid rate of business opening is devastating supply chains  manufacturing was also shut down.  Causing shortages which are TEMPORARY  as well as the price increases.  People are confused should she or shouldn’t  she go back to work. All this will sort itself out in the next 6 months. The big mistake the markets are making is not realizing this is the START of boom time profits. And the start of people returning to work and the biggest spending spree in world history. Which means profits  and economic recovery are understated and price increases are temporary in nature and exaggerated.