Wall St Week Ahead: Some worry U.S. stocks rally more ‘Fear Of Missing Out’ than fundamentals

NEW YORK (Reuters) – A record-setting run in U.S. stocks has made some investors wary as concerns grow over the market’s vulnerability to surging inflation, tighter Federal Reserve policy and moderating corporate profit growth. The S&P 500has gained about 24% so far in 2021, and on Monday finished a streak of eight straight all-time closing highs, the longest such stretch since 1997. The benchmark index has more than doubled since its March 2020 low at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, minting 65 all-time highs in 2021 alone, the second-most of any year on record, according to LPL Financial. With those gains have come potential pockets of excess that some investors worry are emblematic of a market that is overheating, even as inflation soars to its highest levels in decades and the Fed prepares to tighten monetary policy next year. Some examples include the eye-popping gains for Tesla Inc and Nvidia, the blockbuster initial public offering of electric vehicle maker Rivian, which garnered a valuation over $100 billion despite having little revenue, as well as Bitcoin’s surge to an all-time peak. More broadly, the S&P 500 tech sector’s valuation, based on forward price-to-earnings ratios, is near a 17-year high. “There are very reasonably valued stocks and portions of the market, and so that is what I am trying to gravitate to,” said Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital in South Carolina. “But as somebody who has been doing this for a while, (the market) seems… excessive in certain respects.” His firm owns stocks such as pharmaceutical company Pfizer and tech stalwart Cisco for its clients. Some of the worries may be starting to take their toll. Stocks have wobbled in recent days, endangering a sixth week of positive returns for the S&P 500. The CBOE Market Volatility index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, on Wednesday hit its highest level in a month. Based on the level of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, Morgan Stanley strategists said in a note on Monday that the S&P 500 should be trading at about 20.5 times forward earnings estimates, as opposed to its current level of 21.5 times. “We think retail flows, seasonal strength and institutional ‘FOMO’ (Fear Of Missing Out) have taken valuations above fair value,” the Morgan Stanley strategists said, using the acronym for “fear of missing out.” NN: I want to short this insanity more then any market i have ever seen…BUT the time is not right just yet… Be warned its getting close