- A new iteration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – is “tantalizingly close to being done”.
- The prize for a full new iteration of the JCPOA to be signed and put into effect will be at least an immediate 5-10 percent drop in oil prices in the short- to medium-term.
- Kpler analyst: Iran could see an 80 percent recovery of full production within six months and a 100 percent recovery within 12 months.
The spike in crude oil prices last week in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has lent further urgency to the long-running efforts to bring Iranian oil back into the global oil market in order to bring prices back down to levels that do not cause so much damage to major economies. According to sources closely connected to the current negotiations between the ‘P5+1’ group of nations (U.S., U.K., France, China, and Russia, plus Germany) and Iran. The mechanism to achieve this – a new iteration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – is “tantalizingly close to being done.” However, the most senior source added, not only will Iran have to make significant nuclear and missile concessions first but, even more problematic for both sides albeit for different reasons, Iran will be committed initially to aligning itself with the full rules and regulations of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and then to becoming a fully-regulated and constantly-monitored FATF member. Iranian crude oil and condensate production could bounce back very quickly after a new iteration of has been signed and Iran’s Petroleum Ministry orders the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) to ramp up production. According to a senior analyst in this scenario Iran could see an 80 percent recovery of full production within six months and a 100 percent recovery within 12 months. “[As at the beginning of Q4 2021] Iranian crude oil production capacity stood at 3.9 to 4.0 million barrels per day [bpd] according to the NIOC with current output holding near 2.4 million, of which 1.7-1.8 million is consumed in domestic refineries, and close to 1 million barrels per day of condensate and natural gas liquids are also being produced at present, primarily from the South Pars gas field, although total condensate and NGL production capacity stands at around 1 3 million barrels per day,” . NN: I am looking for a spike up and then i want to begin operations… In as little as 6 months oil will be coming back down to earth. We just need to VERY VERY SOON start operations.