The Chinese government is considering addressing the issue that United States President Donald Trump raised over the Asian country’s apparent role in the illegal fentanyl trade to fasten the beginning of the negotiations about the tariffs and reciprocal measures Washington and Beijing imposed on each other, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Friday. According to people familiar with the matter, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong have been reviewing what kind of solution to the issue the Trump administration demands. One of the options include having Wang travel to the US to meet with Trump’s officials to discuss the situation. The report came after China said it is considering the possibility of a dialogue with the US on the matter of their trade disagreements.
Oil Rebounds on Trump Sanction Threats
US oil futures broke a three-day string of losses as equity markets strengthened and President Donald Trump threatened broader sanctions against buyers of Iranian crude. West Texas Intermediate settled 1.8% higher, at $59.24 a barrel, after Trump said that any nation or person who buys oil or petrochemicals from Iran will be subject to secondary sanctions. It was the biggest one-day increase for US oil futures in more than a week.The gains come after prices have fallen sharply since OPEC+ last month rocked the market with its surprise decision to pump more than expected, just as other producers including Guyana also ramp up output. Reuters reported Wednesday that Saudi officials have told allies the kingdom can endure a period of depressed prices, reinforcing expectations it will steer OPEC+ to another supply surge at a meeting May 5. “We’ve been oversold the last few days and there’s a lot of speculation about Saudi flooding the market next week,” said Joe DeLaura, global energy strategist at Rabobank. “Traders are taking a breather and pulling off some risk before the weekend and OPEC meeting.” Despite the pressure on prices, the market faces supply risks. Trump’s Senate ally Lindsey Graham said he had the commitment of 72 colleagues for a bill that would enact “bone-crushing” sanctions on Russia, and tariffs on countries taking its oil, if Vladimir Putin didn’t engage in serious talks to end the war in Ukraine. The US has also been repeatedly sanctioning entities involved in the transportation of Iranian crude, and targeting Venezuelan shipments, too. Yet on the demand side, data Wednesday showed the US economy shrinking for the first time since 2022, while factory activity in China slipped into the worst contraction since 2023. That overshadowed more bullish figures showing US crude and gasoline inventories dropped last week.
nn: see blackmask market update
“upside down yellow cake”
Trump: No US business for buyers of Iranian oil… look for the smoke..
US President Donald Trump warned on Thursday that any country or entity purchasing oil from Iran will be barred from doing business with the United States. Speaking about new sanctions imposed a day earlier, he said the move targets Iran’s alleged ability to fund militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Trump claimed that during his previous term, Iran had no money to support such groups, but under the previous administration, the country regained access to funds. He insisted that sanctions would restore pressure, saying Iran was previously “just about to bust.” “These attacks wouldn’t have happened,” he said, referring to violence that resurged since October 7, 2023.
NN: brent bottomed at $59 and rallied to $61.65 …. as you can see in cash machine we doubled up on oil on the bottom. I repeat despite the bullshit oil cannot be produced in sufficient quantiles to satisfy demand at brent in the sixties and wti in the fifties. and as i told you after options roll over oil would rally…. and their will be no peace in the valley. and trmp will win the trade war and china will cave. have a nice day.. i am going to bed …. first time in 3 days
Happy May Day….. Mischief in The Oil Market… JP Morgan Analysts Say Sentiment on Oil is Neutral to Optimistic
- Oil prices continue falling despite low inventories.
- Weak U.S. economic data and rumors of Saudi production increases weigh on market sentiment.
- Standard Chartered warns the price weakness may persist, citing Trump’s tariff policy, rising Kazakh and Iraqi output, and potential OPEC+ supply boosts despite tight inventory conditions.
Low inventories reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) did nothing to staunch the bleeding, with WTI getting gutted nearly 4% on the day, and Saudi rumors throwing another spanner in the works, while new U.S. economic data suggests more pain is in store for the sector.
Three weeks ago, eight OPEC+ countries unveiled plans to phase-out their voluntary oil output cuts by ramping up output in May by 411,000 barrels per day–equivalent to three monthly increments. The announcement came at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on more than 90 countries across the globe, roiling oil markets. The eight OPEC+ countries are due to meet on 5 May to discuss production levels for June, just days after Washington released a worrying economic report. The U.S. economy shrank at an annualized 0.3% clip in the first quarter, marking the first contraction in three years, due to surging imports as companies rushed to stock up before Trump’s 90-day pause on elevated tariffs comes to an end. That’s a sharp turnaround in fortunes compared to the final quarter of 2024 when the economy expanded by 2.4%.
Further, unconfirmed reports on Wednesday indicated that Saudi Arabia is planning to push for increased production during the May 5th meeting, and it will most likely get its way, with Riyadh reportedly saying it could easily sustain lower oil prices for a longer period. And now commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have predicted the weakness in oil markets is likely to persist thanks to U.S. tariff policy despite oil inventories remaining low.
According to the latest weekly report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. oil inventories remain low, with the deficit in combined U.S. crude oil, distillate and gasoline inventories below the five-year average widening to 47.4 million barrels (mb). The deficit has now more than doubled over the past three weeks to the widest in 20 months.
StanChart’s proprietary U.S. oil data bull-bear index is currently ‘highly bullish’ (i.e., in the strongest 15% of all data releases since 2013)–for three weeks in a row. StanChart notes that the last time a run of data was this strong was in early 2022, helped by strong tailwinds from pandemic recovery. Whereas complete OECD inventory data comes with more of a lag, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has noted that February was the sixth consecutive month of draws, with inventories at their lowest since September 2022.
JP Morgan Analysts Say Sentiment on Oil is Neutral to Optimistic
In a research note by Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan, analysts at the company, including Kaneva, said “based on numerous recent discussions with institutional and corporate clients”, they “conclude that the sentiment on oil is neutral to optimistic, particularly within the corporate community”. “Many believe we are in a ‘peak Trump’ phase, suggesting that the worst is behind us and we are now entering a period of de-escalation,” the J.P. Morgan analysts stated in the research note.
“There is a prevailing view that the tailwinds from trade deal announcements and the administration’s shift in focus from tariffs to taxes and deregulation will drive oil prices back into the mid-$70s following the recent downturn,” they added.
In the note, the analysts said this perspective is evident in investor positioning and the term structure of oil and oil products. “Money managers increased their net-long positions in Nymex WTI to the highest level since late January last week, while short positions in Brent fell by the most since October,” they highlighted. “Brent’s prompt spread hit its strongest level since January, and open interest on Brent climbed to a new record, with Brent September $95 calls trading more than 10,000 times last Tuesday,” they added. “Additionally, the Nymex gasoline crack settled at its highest level since the start of the month, following an eight-week consecutive drop in U.S. stockpiles, and despite concerns related to demand, product cracks in the U.S. continue to remain firmly in backwardation,” they went on to state. The J.P. Morgan analysts noted in the publication that the recent de-escalation in trade talks has reduced the probability of a bear case but warned that “the ‘Trump put’ does not extend to energy, as the administration continues to prioritize lower oil prices to manage inflation”. “On the demand side, markets may be underestimating the final tariff levels that the Trump administration plans to impose on U.S. imports,” the analysts said in the note.
The J.P. Morgan research note showed that the company is projecting that Brent crude oil will average $66 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026. The company expects WTI crude oil to average $62 per barrel this year and $53 per barrel next year, the note outlined.
According to the note, J.P. Morgan sees Brent averaging $67 per barrel in the second quarter of this year, $63 per barrel in the third quarter, $61 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $55 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $57 per barrel across the second and third quarters of 2026, and $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of next year.
J.P. Morgan expects the WTI price to come in at $63 per barrel in the second quarter of 2025, $59 per barrel in the third quarter, $57 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $51 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $53 per barrel across the second and third quarters of next year, and $56 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, the note showed.
J.P. Morgan’s research note highlighted that Brent averaged $82 per barrel and WTI averaged $76 per barrel in 2024. It pointed out that the former averaged $81 per barrel in 2023 and the latter came in at $76 per barrel again in 2023
NN: so far the $58 brent low has held as expected. in fact we are $2.00 above. remember europe is closed today for commie day……. this is simply a buying opportunity…. fueled by the usual oil market baseless fake news induced panic
Oil down more than 4% amid economy scare
The price of oil continued to follow a downward trend on Wednesday as persistent economic uncertainty triggered by a trade confrontation between the United States and China, the world’s two biggest oil consumers, seemed to impact demand. At the same time, the latest data showed that US GDP in the first quarter of 2025 fell by 0.3%, further contributing to worry about the state of the global economy. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for June deliveries declined 4.04% at 12:37 pm ET and sold for $58.02 per barrel. Brent for the same month’s settlements slumped 1.82% at the same minute, going for $63.08 per barrel.
nn: this move is down right silly
Oil Traders Brace For Another Saudi-Led OPEC+ Oil Supply Surge…… Do You Feel Lucky?
Oil traders expect Saudi Arabia to steer OPEC+ to agree on another supply surge next week as the kingdom continues its campaign to discipline the cartel’s errant members. Key OPEC+ members will probably agree to hike output in June by significantly more than the scheduled amount when they hold a video conference on May 5, according to roughly 60% of traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Earlier this month, the Saudis stunned crude traders by pushing OPEC+ to revive 411,000 barrels a day in May — three times the planned volume — in a move delegates said was intended to punish over-producing members Kazakhstan and Iraq by driving down prices. There could also be a political backdrop to the decision: Riyadh is seeking to strengthen ties with US President Donald Trump, who has renewed calls for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to lower fuel costs. Trump is also striving for a nuclear deal with that could ultimately revive oil exports from the kingdom’s regional foe, Iran. Crude futures plunged after OPEC+’s surprise pivot, which was announced just hours after Trump inititated a trade war with China and other nations on April 2. Brent contracts briefly crashed to a four-year low below $60 a barrel in the ensuing days, and were trading near $63 in London on Wednesday.
With Kazakhstan making little apparent effort to mend its ways, 13 of 23 survey respondents predict that OPEC+ will green-light another hike similar to the previous 411,000-barrel-a-day surge. Another two forecast the increase would be smaller, but still above the standard increment.
“History shows that when OPEC+ leadership decides to encourage compliance by supply pressure, it does not stop until it achieves its goal,” said Bob McNally, president and founder of Rapidan Energy Advisers LLC and a former White House energy official. So far, the so-called “sweating” of OPEC+ quota cheats is bearing limited results. While Iraq has pledged to keep reducing oil exports, Kazakhstan’s international partners like Eni SpA say they haven’t been pressed to reduce output. While the price rout does offer relief for consumers and central banks still feeling the effects of inflation, it spells financial pain for oil producers. Texas oilman Bryan Sheffield has urged companies to scale back drilling to avert an industry “blood bath,” while consultant Rystad Energy slashed its estimates for US onshore crude growth by more than half. The Saudis themselves aren’t immune, requiring an oil price near $90 a barrel to cover government spending, according to the International Monetary Fund. “Increasing supply to maximize revenue might be the optimal strategy” for producers, said Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Eight survey respondents forecast that, rather than risk a deeper market slump, OPEC+ will revert to its initial program of modest monthly supply increases in June, set at roughly 138,000 barrels a day. The coalition had originally outlined a road map for such careful increments back in June, which would gradually restore output halted since 2022 in a bid to shore up prices. But it repeatedly delayed the restart out of concern that, with oil demand growth in China slowing and supply from the Americas booming, its extra barrels would destabilize the market. In early March, OPEC+ finally approved the first in the sequence of hikes. Such careful adjustments — the hallmark of Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman for much of his tenure — were thrown out the window earlier this month. To many analysts, the Prince’s current strategy more closely resembles the brief price war waged by Riyadh against fellow OPEC+ leader Russia in 2020. “Clearly, the calculus is changing,” said Matt Reed, vice president of consultant Foreign Reports in Washington. “Responsible producers are running out of patience with cheaters who keep coming up with excuses. The April decision was a surprise; the May decision feels more like a wake-up call.”
NN: Sadie’s scare the market… yes…. crash the market no.. the thrill is gone so is the surprise
Gold slips 1% as Trump promises ‘fair deal’ with China
United States President Donald Trump promised his administration would achieve a “fair deal” on trade with China, as he said that both countries are interested in making a deal. During a rally in Michigan celebrating 100 days of his presidency, Trump also stated that his administration was “just getting started,” easing investors’ concerns, and turning them away from safe-haven assets.
Oil Market Looking into the Abyss….. Bottoming…. Again
It seems that the global oil market is going through a critical phase, where economic and geopolitical factors intertwine, casting a heavy shadow over crude prices, particularly U.S. crude, which continues its downward trajectory.
That’s what Rania Gule, a senior market analyst at XS.com-MENA, said in a market analysis sent on Wednesday, adding that “this sharp decline, the most significant since November 2021, cannot merely be seen as a technical correction or a routine supply and demand adjustment”. “Rather, it is a direct reflection of mounting concerns over a global economic slowdown fueled by protectionist policies and escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies – the United States and China,” Gule said in the analysis. Gule went on to note that, from her perspective, investors have grown increasingly sensitive to any signs of economic weakness. “The recent steep drop in U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest level since April 2020 stands as a clear indication of fragile economic sentiment,” Gule said in the analysis.
“This significant decline did not occur in a vacuum; it coincided with sudden tariff decisions by President Donald Trump, sparking a new round of trade confrontation with China,” Gule added.
“In such an environment, crude oil, as a sovereign commodity closely linked to growth and industrial activity, is often the first to take a hit, amid fears of shrinking global demand and slower supply chains,” Gule continued. Gule highlighted in the report that, in her view, “the issue is not solely about demand”. “The supply side is also placing additional pressure on prices. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed an unexpected increase of 3.8 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories, intensifying market fears of a structural supply surplus,” Gule pointed out. “When the actual increase exceeds market expectations by nearly tenfold, as is the case here, it serves as a strong negative signal that reflects weak drawdowns from inventories – a clear sign of slowing industrial or consumer activity,” Gule added. “Adding to this, there’s speculation that OPEC+ may accelerate its production hikes in the upcoming meeting. While this move might be aimed at protecting market share or preempting a future rise in demand, the timing seems ill-advised,” Gule continued. The analyst noted in the analysis that the market is not currently suffering from a supply shortage, it’s grappling with weak consumption. “If additional production increases are approved in June, we could witness a new wave of selloffs, possibly pushing prices to levels not seen since the peak of the Covid-19 crisis,” Gule warned.
In the analysis, Gule said she would not rule out crude prices falling below $55 in the coming weeks, “especially if there’s no tangible improvement in global demand indicators or resolution to the tariff escalation between Washington and Beijing”.
“Therefore, the outlook for oil prices leans toward the negative in the short to medium term,” Gule noted.
In an oil report by the Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) team today, Bjarne Schieldrop, the chief commodities analyst at the company, noted that “Brent crude f[ell]… with strong conviction that [a] trade war will hurt demand for oil”.
“Brent crude sold off 2.4 percent yesterday to $64.25 per barrel along with rising concerns that the U.S. trade war with China will soon start to visibly hurt oil demand or that it has already started to happen,” Schieldrop said in the report. “Tariffs between the two are currently at 145 percent and 125 percent in the U.S. and China respectively, which implies a sharp decline in trade between the two if at all,” he added. “This morning Brent crude (June contract) is trading down another 1.2 percent to $63.3 per barrel. The June contract is rolling off today and a big question is how that will leave the shape of the Brent crude forward curve,” Schieldrop continued. “Will the front-end backwardation in the curve evaporate further or will the July contract, now at $62.35 per barrel, move up to where the June contract is today?” he went on to state.
NN: wti uner$60 is a screaming buy. same for brent in the $63 range again….. be careful after all this is balls to the wall speculating……. their will be a trade deal with china
Kremlin: Ukraine war can’t be resolved quickly……. Lavrov: Russia doesn’t see possibility for ‘honest’ truce
Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday that the Ukraine war is “too complex” and, as a result, cannot be resolved “quickly.” The Kremlin spokesman said Moscow appreciated the United States’ efforts to broker a deal and expressed hope they will be successful. However, he pointed out that the final deal must be reached with Ukraine, not the US. “A peace agreement must be concluded with Ukraine, not with America. America is trying to act as a mediator, and we are grateful to the United States for these truly incredible efforts,” Peskov noted.
Lavrov: Russia doesn’t see possibility for ‘honest’ truce
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday that Moscow doesn’t see a possibility for honest supervision or compliance regarding a potential truce with Ukraine. “The ability of the Ukrainian regime to organize provocations is well known. Undoubtedly, these provocations would continue regardless of how this truce is organized. We do not see the possibility of honest monitoring for honest compliance with this truce,” Lavrov commented while speaking at a press conference of the Council of BRICS Foreign Ministers. Russian President Vladimir Putin previously announced a three day truce following the Victory Day celebrations, during which all hostilities will stop.
nn: so much for peace in the valley and lifting of sanctions on Russian oil
CHILL
Oil prices are once again under pressure as supply concerns continue unabated, with a scarcity of bullish catalysts to counteract them. The future of the U.S.-China import tariff war will define energy prices of the upcoming months as the Trump administration’s 145% tariff on China (and the reciprocal 125% from Beijing)WILL SOON END.
Brent prices have dipped below $65 per barrel again as the seemingly inopportune bluff of Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ countries to unwind even more production into the summer months depresses market sentiment. A potential Russia-Ukraine negotiations breakthrough or a rapprochement between the US and Iran will end in military action.
The White House imposed sanctions on three tankers delivering oil and refined products to Yemen’s Houthis, with the Tulip, Maisan, and White Whale vessels routinely shuttling to the port of Ras Isa, as the Trump administration ramps up pressure on them.
Iraq’s top political brass met with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa this week to discuss restoring the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline, out of operation since 2003 when it was damaged by US airstrikes, seeking to avoid intermediaries in supplying the Syrian market.
At least six tankers have been queuing next to Venezuela’s oil ports, including 5 vessels chartered by Chevron and one by trading firm Vitol, as the Latin American country is bracing for the May 27 expiry of the US oil major’s production license.