Oil rallyback continues as US imposes new Iran sanctions

Oil prices climbed 1% on Thursday due to worries about supply constraints following additional US sanctions against Iran. US President Donald Trump’s administration announced new penalties Wednesday targeting Iranian oil exports, including sanctions on a Chinese independent refinery, escalating pressure during nuclear negotiations.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for May’s settlements at 3:00 am ET trading at $62.91 per barrel. Brent for June delivery was trading at  $66.25 per barrel.

I would like to remind you in the June 9th algo fagots, candle stick asshole bumbs rush. May WTI  TEMPORARLY plunged to $55.00 only to soar minuets later $62.70. Same story in July Brent. Which crashed to $57.90 only to reverse on a dime to soar that day to $65.50.

Now we are $8:00 off that low. So much for the bullshit fake news about demand falling and production soaring…. Its just not true….

Iran Says Ability to Enrich Uranium Is Not Up for Negotiation…… Yes it is wide open to bunker buster bombs

Iran said it won’t be drawn into negotiations over its ability to enrich uranium in nuclear talks with the US, a sign that the tentative diplomatic push to resolve their standoff over Tehran’s atomic work may have already hit a major snag. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that he’d heard contradictory positions from his US counterpart in the talks, Steve Witkoff, since their first meeting in Oman last Saturday which he’d initially described as positive and constructive.

Witkoff clarified his position in a social media post and said that “a deal with Iran will only be completed if it is a Trump deal.” Witkoff said that means:

Iran “must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program.”

DOA- Hamas and Hezbollah and Iran’s day are numbered

The United States greenlights a massive munitions shipment to bolster the IDF’s operations against Hamas; Iranian dissidents speak out against renewed U.S. nuclear negotiations with the Islamic Republic; and Hamas rejects a proposed deal that would have secured the release of Israeli hostages and led to the group’s disarmament.

 

ERUSALEM (AP) — Israel’s defense minister said Wednesday that troops will remain in so-called security zones in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Syria indefinitely, remarks that could further complicate talks with Hamas over a ceasefire and hostage release. Israeli forces have taken over more than half of Gaza in a renewed campaign to pressure Hamas to release hostages after Israel ended their ceasefire last month. Israel has also refused to withdraw from some areas in Lebanon following a ceasefire with the Hezbollah militant group last year, and it seized a buffer zone in southern Syria after rebels overthrew President Bashar Assad in December.

“Unlike in the past, the (Israeli military) is not evacuating areas that have been cleared and seized,” Defense Minister Israel Katz said in a statement. The military “will remain in the security zones as a buffer between the enemy and (Israeli) communities in any temporary or permanent situation in Gaza — as in Lebanon and Syria.”

The Palestinians and both neighboring countries view the presence of Israeli troops as military occupation in violation of international law. Hamas has said it will not release dozens of remaining hostages without a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a lasting ceasefire.

“There is one solution that is desirable and feasible, and that is the release of all the hostages at once as part of an agreement, even at the cost of ending the war,” it said. Israel says it must maintain control of what it refers to as security zones to prevent a repeat of Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack, in which thousands of militants stormed into southern Israel from Gaza, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting 251.

Israel’s bombardment and ground operations have left vast areas of the territory uninhabitable and have displaced around 90% of the population of roughly 2 million Palestinians. Many have been displaced multiple times, and hundreds of thousands are crammed into squalid tent camps with dwindling food after Israel sealed off the territory from all imports more than a month ago.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to annihilate Hamas and return the 59 hostages still in Gaza — 24 of whom are believed to be alive. He has said that Israel will then implement U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal for the resettlement of much of Gaza’s population in other countries through what Netanyahu refers to as “voluntary emigration.”

The Trump administration  has since expressed full support for Israel’s decision to end it and to cut off all humanitarian aid. Trump’s Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff, has been trying to broker a new ceasefire agreement more favorable to Israel but those efforts appear to have made little progress.

Netanyahu helms the most nationalist and religious government in Israel’s history, and his coalition partners have called for the reestablishment of Jewish settlements in Gaza.

 

Iran: Uranium enrichment principle not negotiable

  • High-level negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials in Muscat focused on a new nuclear deal.
  • The deal includes several new provisions, such as indefinite weapons inspections in Iran and access to financial records of companies linked to the IRGC.
  • Iran is pushing for more sanctions relief and guarantees regarding Israel’s military presence in the region.

Washington’s core aim is to stop Iran from building nuclear weapons and to prevent Israel from launching a massive attack on the country which could ignite a war across the Middle East. On the other side were the Iranian negotiators whose presence attested to the depth of their country’s economic malaise, leaving the government facing increased public discontent and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) unable effectively spread Iran’s version of Islam around the world. Tehran’s core aim is to avoid being gain sanctions relief to rebuild its economy and influence via the IRGC and its proxies, and to avoid a huge military assault by Israel, backed by the U.S.

NN: we need to stop pussyfooting around and blat them to hell

Oil down 1% as IEA cuts demand forecast

Crude oil prices declined by over 1% on Wednesday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) significantly lowered its 2025 demand outlook, projecting growth at its weakest level in five years and cautioning that worldwide oversupply could continue through 2026. Meanwhile, API figures revealed a 2.4 million barrel increase in US crude stocks last week, contrary to predictions of a 1.68 million barrel reduction.

Not surprising  oil was little changed as people start to figure out the trade “wars” have not affected oil demand in any way.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for deliveries in May  at 4:35 am ET, going for $61.63 per barrel, while Brent for settlements in June traded $64.72.

NN: its important to understand a slowdown in demand growth is ESTIMATED . not a slowdown in  DEMAND

Trump says 20% duty still applies on China electronics……. Must see Ray Dalio Interview

United States President Donald Trump announced via TruthSocial on Sunday that “nobody is getting off the hook for the unfair Trade Balances, and Non Monetary Tariff Barriers,” explaining that there was no tariff exception on Friday. He clarified that a 20% Fentanyl levy still applies on Chinese electronics. “They are just moving to a different Tariff ‘bucket.’ The Fake News knows this, but refuses to report it.” Furthermore, the president promised a national security investigation into semiconductors and “the whole electronics supply chain.” Trump reiterated his stance that the US will not allow China and other foreign countries to “disrespect the American people” and announced a golden age for America. Trump had previously said electronics produced in China, such as semiconductors and smartphones, would be exempt from the existing 145% levy on all Chinese imports.

NN: Chaotic is the Trump order of the day….

Ackman urges Trump to pause China tariffs for 90 days

Billionaire and Pershing Square Capital Management CEO Bill Ackman called on United States President Donald Trump on Sunday to pause the 145% tariff on Chinese goods for 90 days and lower it to 10% during this period, just as he did for other countries. “The benefit of waiting 90 days is two fold. It gives all US businesses the opportunity to make supply chain adjustments, and it gives China the opportunity to show that it is willing to negotiate a trade deal in good faith,” Ackman said in a post on X and added that he would support Trump’s tariffs if China shows it is not willing to reach a fair trade deal. “If China does not cooperate and negotiate a deal that makes sense for our country, President Trump can bring the hammer down in 90 days,” the billionaire stressed.

Gen. Jack Keane (ret.) breaks down the impact of the Trump administration’s crippling sanctions on Iran.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S Treasury Department on Wednesday issued new sanctions targeting Iran’s nuclear program, just days before senior American and Iranian officials are expected to hold talks in the Middle East sultanate of Oman. Five entities and one person based in Iran are cited in the new sanctions for their support of Iran’s nuclear program. The designated groups include the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran and subordinates Iran Centrifuge Technology Company, Thorium Power Company, Pars Reactors Construction and Development Company and Azarab Industries Co. “The Iranian regime’s reckless pursuit of nuclear weapons remains a grave threat to the United States and a menace to regional stability and global security,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement. “Treasury will continue to leverage our tools and authorities to disrupt any attempt by Iran to advance its nuclear program and its broader destabilizing agenda.”The new sanctions come as President Donald Trump announced earlier this week that he was dispatching senior envoys to hold direct talks with Iran about its nuclear program, while warning the Iranians they would be in “great danger” if the talks don’t succeed in persuading them to abandon their nuclear weapons program.

The United States is increasingly concerned as Tehran is closer than ever to a workable weapon.

30-year bonds on Thursday auction yielded 4.813%

The US Treasury sold $22 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday at a yield of 4.813%.  The result represents a 30  basis points increase in the past month from level of 4.51%, and a increase from the 52 week low of 3.90% and a  almost 100 bases (1%) point rise

As i was preparing to publish the 30 year just ticked up to 4.03%

NN: fair warning when we get 5.25% we ill start zero operations.  not now but soon

Mark Spitznagel predicts 80% stock market crash, calls current plunge a ‘trap’

 

Mark Spitznagel, a well-known investor, has said that yesterday’s stock market decline may be a precursor to a larger event in the future. Referring to the plunge as a “trap,” he said that he anticipates an “80% crash when this is over,” according to a MarketWatch report. “I just don’t think this is it,” he added. “This is another selloff to shake people out. This isn’t Armageddon,” Spitznagel said. “That time will come as the bubble bursts. This is a most contrarian view right now. Promise.”  This comes after Spitznagel having been calling for a bigger crash, which he feels would be the worst since 1929. He had previously warned investors in 2024 to not get caught off guard when the stock market turns for the worse and end up being the “sucker” who sells when the market is down and buys when it’s up.

NN: tariffs are a consumption tax on foreign made goods

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