The White House published an outcome document on Tuesday following expert-level talks with the Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Riyadh to reveal that both parties agreed to refrain from military strikes on energy infrastructure. According to the wording, the agreement was done in line with presidential-level discussions between United States President Donald Trump and his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts, Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. Both Moscow and Kiev undertook to “develop measures” for implementing the deal to ban strikes against energy facilities in their territories, as previously agreed upon in President Trump’s respective conversations with both leaders. All three countries also committed to continue working toward achieving a durable and lasting peace in the country while welcoming “the good offices of third countries” to support the implementation of the energy and maritime agreements.
Zelensky says Ukraine to begin partial ceasefire immediately
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Tuesday the start of a partial ceasefire effective immediately. The decision follows the White House’s release of the agreements made after the bilateral talks held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from March 23 to 25. According to Zelensky, under the new understanding, neither side will be allowed to use weapons against energy infrastructure. Nevertheless, if Moscow violates the ceasefire, he will ask US President Donald Trump to impose new sanctions and provide weapons. “I have questions about how all of this will be implemented. Of course, once our team returns, I want more details,” Zelensky told a press conference, adding that “there is no trust in the Russians here, but I believe we will be constructive … and will do our part in implementing the agreements from the Ukrainian- American meeting,” he concluded.
nn: this has as much a chance of working as hitting a monkey on a swing with a snow ball in a blast furnace
US copper futures surged to a record high Tuesday, fueled by fears of incoming tariffs under President Donald Trump’s administration and supply disruptions in Chile. Prices on New York’s Comex exchange reached $5.2055 per pound, surpassing the previous May 2024 record of $5.199. The move followed news that Glencore Plc had halted shipments from its Altonorte smelter in Chile due to furnace issues. As of 9:45 am ET on March 25, copper futures for May rose 2.17%, trading at $5.2075 per pound.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that there are currently no more meetings planned between officials from Russia and the United States following yesterday’s talks in Saudi Arabia. However, he said the two sides will remain in contact and that further meetings will be agreed upon. He added that Russian President Vladimir Putin has no plans to speak to US President Donald Trump but that a call can be arranged “quite quickly and efficiently” if needed. Peskov declined to provide details on the US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia, stating that they were technical in nature and that they will first be analyzed by Washington and Moscow. He also said there were no discussions about a possible trilateral meeting between Russia, the US and Ukraine.
Israel will exert “maximum pressure on Hamas in all possible ways,” an adviser to the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahy’s Office Dmitry Gendelman told Tass on Tuesday.”Israel will take all possible measures to free all our hostages and will exert maximum pressure on Hamas to ensure that all those kidnapped return home as soon as possible,” Gendelman stated. He made his remark in response to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report about alleged Israeli plans for a major ground offensive in Gaza. Moreover, it was also reported that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) prepared a plan for a full occupation of the war-tor enclave.
nn: game on. this is known as hell to pay
Israel plans to conquer and occupy Gaza
Israel’s military drafted plans to “reconquer” Gaza in a renewed effort to defeat Hamas, according to a Financial Times report published Monday. Israel occupied the enclave for almost 40 years until 2005, after taking it in the 1967 war. The new proposal, formulated by the recently appointed Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, has received unofficial backing from far-right ministers but still awaits formal approval from the nation’s security cabinet. The strategy calls for multiple IDF combat units to launch a new invasion of Gaza, eliminate Hamas, control major portions of the territory, and relocate its 2 million residents to the al-Mawasi so-called coastal humanitarian area. The IDF would then assume control of the besieged region, including distribution of aid to ensure Hamas would not benefit from it.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Monday stated that millions of Israelis were forced to seek shelter due to a ballistic missile launch from Yemen. Projectiles presumably launched by the Yemeni Houthis triggered air alarms across central Israel, the army said on X. In an update, the IDF revealed it intercepted a missile from Yemen before it entered the country’s air space. There has been no information about casualties or material damage.
President Donald Trump on Monday threatened a 25% tariff on any nation purchasing oil and gas from Venezuela, ratcheting up his dispute with the Latin American country over immigration with a move that risks roiling the global energy trade. The move aims to cut a major source of revenue for the regime of Nicolás Maduro in Caracas while also putting further pressure on China, which is a major purchaser of Venezuelan crude and already in the cross hairs for 20% tariffs under Trump. The US, meanwhile, is also a core buyer of Venezuelan oil, and Texas based Chevron Corp. is a key producer. The tariff would go into affect April 2, Trump said in a social media post, the same day his administration is expected to unveil a wider array of tariffs targeting multiple countries, adding yet another layer to the overlapping duties that have rattled trade partners and risk gumming up the global economy. US crude futures rose as much as 1.5% after Trump’s post, before pairing gains to 1.1% to trade at $69.02 a barrel as of 12:52 p.m. in New York. Prices have come under pressure in recent weeks due to growing worries about oversupply and a shaky US economic outlook. Meanwhile, Venezuela sovereign bonds slipped across the curve. US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans are a cornerstone of his economic agenda. Now that he’s back in office, businesses are navigating an uncertain future as he unveils his plans. Trump referred to the new charges as “secondary tariffs,” a potentially novel use of the trade restriction similar to so-called secondary sanctions imposed on firms or people doing business with targeted entities. Trump has ramped up scrutiny and sanctions on Venezuela since returning to the White House, reversing some easing under President Joe Biden.
“Any Country that purchases Oil and/or Gas from Venezuela will be forced to pay a Tariff of 25% to the United States on any Trade they do with our Country. All documentation will be signed and registered, and the Tariff will take place on April 2nd, 2025, LIBERATION DAY IN AMERICA,” Trump wrote Monday on Truth Social.
“Venezuela has been very hostile to the United States and the Freedoms which we espouse,” Trump wrote. The move escalates tensions with the South American nation ruled by socialist leader Maduro. Trump has sought to crack down on the Venezuela—based Tren de Aragua gang, including with a series of deportations under a little used 18th century law to a notorious El Salvadoran prison. A federal judge ruled Monday the migrants must be allowed to challenge the deportations in court. Trump announced the decision after Venezuela resumed accepting deportation flights from the US, which Maduro’s government briefly halted. But Trump said “Venezuela has purposefully and deceitfully sent to the United States, undercover, tens of thousands of high level, and other, criminals, many of whom are murderers and people of a very violent nature” including members of Tren de Aragua.
NN: It is amazing to me the markets fail to see Trump will sanctionable oil exports’ from countries that do not bend to his will. This is good for a nice little pop as you ae seeing, Can you imagine what will happen when he gets around to Iran….Try $90.00
Oil vigilantes have been found wanting. That’s what analysts at J.P. Morgan said in a research note sent on Thursday by Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at the company. In the research note, the J.P. Morgan analysts noted that the term bond vigilantes has long been part of the market vernacular, “referring to the concept that if governments or central banks engage in excessive spending or policies that might lead to inflation or unsustainable debt levels, bond investors – through selling bonds – will seek to exert pressure on governments or central banks to adopt policies that they perceive as fiscally responsible, often by raising borrowing costs”.
“Oil vigilantes, on the other hand, is a concept suggesting that when challenges arise and oil prices plummet, the OPEC alliance will intervene to stabilize the market and prop up prices,” the analysts added.
The J.P. Morgan analysts stated in the research note that this perspective was echoed during a Bloomberg panel at the International Energy event in late February, “where almost 20 percent of respondents identified OPEC’s output decisions as the most influential factor for the oil market this year, compared to just three percent who viewed non-OPEC supply growth as the primary driver of price formation”.In the research note, the J.P. Morgan analysts noted that, “as the Trump administration prepares to impose hefty tariffs on a wide range of imports starting April 2, affecting virtually all countries and increasing the risk of a recession, oil prices have indeed tumbled”. “With Brent crude trading just above $72.00 per barrel – aside from a brief dip last September – prices are at their lowest since December 2021,” the analysts said in the report, adding that Brent and WTI prompt time spreads have also weakened.“Yet, this hasn’t set off any alarms at OPEC,” the J.P. Morgan analysts said in the research note. “Instead, the alliance has demonstrated greater tolerance for the potential adverse economic fallout from tariffs and has opted to proceed with its plan to gradually increase crude oil output beginning in April 2025,” they added. “Those who were waiting on a ‘put’, expecting OPEC to reverse its stance, are now facing the possibility that they may have misread the market,” they continued. The J.P. Morgan analysts stated in the note that, for the alliance to change its course, significant market imbalances, such as a sudden drop in demand or a large increase in supply leading to swelling inventories, would likely be needed. “So far, none of these conditions have materialized – the downgrades in U.S. GDP have been almost fully offset by upgrades in Europe’s and China’s growth, keeping our demand projections unchanged,” the analysts highlighted.
“While OECD inventories are four percent above their 2000-2015 levels, they remain three percent below their five-year averages,” they added.
The analysts went on to warn in the research note that the short-term outlook is also unclear. “Our fair-value model suggests that current Brent prices, which are hovering in the low $70s, are about $6 undervalued, but most of this underperformance is likely due to a large three percent decline in the U.S. trade-weighted dollar since mid-January,” they said.
“Net investor positioning remains short. From a technical standpoint, Brent prices are attempting to stabilize near the July 2023 channel support at $69.96, but the lack of pattern-based buy signals and the choppy nature of the recent bounce make it difficult to confidently assert that the rebound over the past week or so marks a sustainable transition to a rally phase,” they added. The J.P. Morgan analysts highlighted in the note that, “fundamentally”, they “still anticipate Brent prices to recover into the mid-to-high $70s over the next couple of months, before dipping below $70 and ending the year in the mid-$60s, averaging around $73”.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Saturday to launch a wave of airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. The strikes follow a barrage of rockets fired earlier in the day toward northern Israel, which officials attributed to the Iran-backed group. According to a statement from Katz’s office, the IDF was directed to hit dozens of Hezbollah sites, including rocket launchers and a command center. The Israeli military described the rocket fire as a “blatant violation” of ceasefire understandings and warned that Lebanon’s government would be held responsible. Hezbollah has denied responsibility for the morning rocket barrage, while Lebanon’s Prime Minister, Nawaf Salam, warned against the resurgence of military conflict.
Israel kills Hamas official, raid Gaza
An Israeli airstrike conducted in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis reportedly killed Hamas political leader Salah al-Bardweel along with his wife, according to Quds News Network. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reportedly bombed a home in the area of Al-Fakhari in southern Khan Younis, killing at least four people. Additionally, Israeli forces stormed al-Mawasi, which lies west of Khan Younis and shelled the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza.
nn: this s shot of all hell breaking loose. but it ain’t bad for a start
Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned Saturday that Moscow reserves the right to respond, including “symmetrically,” if Ukraine continues attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Zakharova accused Ukraine of violating a US-brokered understanding that aimed to prevent attacks on energy facilities.”Despite the agreement, which Kiev seemed to have officially supported, treacherous attacks on Russian territory continue,” she said, describing the Ukrainian government as a “Nazi regime” and alleging it also targets civilian sites.
Russian drones kill 3 in Zaporizhzhia despite talks
Three people were killed and 12 others injured in a Russian drone strike on the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian officials reported Saturday. The attack came despite a recently announced limited ceasefire, raising questions about its scope and enforcement. Regional governor Ivan Fedorov said fires broke out in residential areas, damaging homes, vehicles, and social infrastructure. Ukraine’s air force said Russia launched 179 drones and decoys overnight, of which 100 were intercepted and 63 likely jammed. Debris also caused fires in the Kiev and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Russia claimed it shot down 47 Ukrainian drones in a separate attack.
Yemen’s Houthis have officially claimed responsibility for the ballistic missile that was intercepted earlier by Israel, Al Jazeera reported. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree stated during a television address that the projectile was intended for the Ben Gurion Airport which is located near Tel Aviv. Additionally, Saree said that the group launched more than one attack against the United States aircraft carrier USS Harry S Truman in the Red Sea, though the US military has not yet confirmed the incident.
Syrian media reports Israeli airstrike near Damascus
Syrian state media on Saturday reported that Israel carried out an airstrike near the town of Najha, just south of Damascus.The strike occurred in the afternoon, though no details were immediately provided about casualties or the specific targets hit. Najha is located near several military facilities and has previously been cited in reports of Israeli strikes.