Author: BlackMask Financial

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Ray Dalio and Salesforce’s Benioff on AI, trade wars and new world order

nn: every once in a while i run across a must see interview, pay close attention to the part about a stock market bubble and debt market crash. A slow motion tectonic shift that has begun. 

Recorded at CNBC’s CONVERGE LIVE event in Singapore, Sara Eisen speaks to industry titans, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates and Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff, who appear on stage together for the first time. On the economic challenges facing the US, Bridgwater Associates Founder Ray Dalio explained “they have to sell a quantity of debt that the world is not going to want to buy.” Revealing what he thinks the Trump administration needs to do, Dalio told CNBC “the deficit must go from what will be projected now to be about 7.2% of GDP to about 3% of GDP, otherwise there will be a supply-demand problem.” Also on the agenda was AI and the agentic future. “The next wave is the biggest, most exciting wave of technology in the history of technology. It is the shift to digital labor,” Salesforce’s Benioff told CNBC. The software company CEO also said he’ll be “the last CEO of Salesforce who only managed humans.”

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John Bolton’s Warning to Allies on How to Survive the Trump Rollercoaster

John Bolton pulls no punches as he dissects the enigmatic foreign policy approach of U.S. President Donald Trump, unraveling misconceptions held by many observers worldwide. Drawing upon his extensive experience as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations under George W. Bush and later as Trump’s own National Security Adviser, Bolton provides a rare insider’s perspective into managing the turbulent and unpredictable tendencies of a president known for changing his stance multiple times within a single day. He offers pointed guidance on what Ukraine, Europe, Canada, and the broader NATO alliance must do to successfully navigate Trump’s shifting political landscape. With remarkable candor, Bolton reveals a troubling yet essential truth: the U.S. president is particularly susceptible to personal flattery—a weakness expertly leveraged by Russia, yet often underestimated by America’s allies. Bolton cites the tense Oval Office exchange between President Trump and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky not merely as an example of diplomatic friction, but as a vivid illustration of Trump’s volatile temperament and his deep-seated personal animosity toward the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief. This illuminating conversation between Ambassador Bolton and Kyiv Post’s Jason Smart serves as both a cautionary tale and a strategic roadmap for nations seeking to effectively engage a leader whose personal impulses frequently override conventional diplomacy.

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Iran Sanctions Pushing Oil Prices Higher

A new round of sanctions targeting Iran’s oil industry and the country’s oil minister boosted oil prices earlier today, offsetting the negative effect of the International Energy Agency’s latest monthly report, released Thursday The IEA said in the March edition of its Oil Market Report that global oil supply was 600,000 bpd higher than demand so far this year, thanks to stronger U.S. production and weaker demand. The report followed OPEC’s latest update, which revealed an increase in the group’s total production despite the commitment to caps aimed at supporting global prices. “The United States is currently producing at record highs and is forecast to be the largest source of supply growth in 2025,” the IEA said, adding that “The latest round of sanctions on Russia and Iran has yet to significantly disrupt loadings, even as some buyers have scaled back purchases.” The agency also revised down its demand growth forecast for 2025 by 70,000 bpd to 1.03 million barrels daily, which further pressured prices before the news of the fresh Iran sanctions broke.

The U.S. Treasury announced the sanctions on Thursday, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying that “The Iranian regime continues to use the proceeds from the nation’s vast oil resources to advance its narrow, alarming self-interests at the expense of the Iranian people.

Treasury will fight and disrupt any attempts by the regime to fund its destabilizing activities and further its dangerous agenda.” As a result, prices rebounded earlier today in anticipation of supply disruptions in the OPEC member, which has been exempted from the production cuts due to the U.S. sanctions.

nn: This is the main secret event/crises the oil market facing.

Other then a knee jerk reaction to a “peace” deal in Ukraine their ae no other drivers

 

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Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Hugh For Gas Nothing Burger For Oil…..

The energy market implications of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire could be huge for natural gas.. That’s what Rystad Energy’s Head of Geopolitical Analysis, Jorge Leon, said in a breaking news market update sent to the oil trading desks on Wednesday by the Rystad team. Leon highlighted in the update, however, that it is “still early in the process”.

“As early market reactions to yesterday’s news have shown, the geopolitical risk premium in the oil and gas markets will fall sharply if a truce is implemented, bringing down prices,” Leon said in the update.

“More importantly, the likelihood of a permanent peace agreement has now increased compared to just a few days ago, after the infamous televised clash between President Zelensky and President Trump in the Oval Office,” he added. “In addition to the obvious humanitarian benefits, a permanent ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine would have wide-ranging and sweeping implications for global energy markets,” he continued. Leon noted in the update that a ceasefire would most definitely include sanctions relief on Russian hydrocarbons, adding that a greater availability of Russian gas would push prices down, particularly the European gas benchmark TTF.

For oil, downside price pressure triggered by a permanent ceasefire might be more limited, Leon said in the update.

“Russian crude production is limited by its OPEC+ target and not so much by sanctions, but higher flows could materialize,” he said.

“At the same time, the end of hostilities would reduce the geopolitical risk premium in the oil markets,” he added. “Interestingly, a lower oil price might be more conducive for the U.S. to apply maximum pressure on Iran,” Leon noted. “The Trump administration may consider it easier to apply maximum pressure on Iran and lose around 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian exports in a low-price environment with OPEC+ increasing production and amid growing Russian supplies,” he went on to state. Leon said in the update that global trade flows could also shift if a negotiated peace is reached. “As such, a resumption of some Russian piped gas to Europe could materialize,” Leon highlighted.

“We are still far away from a permanent ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, but these developments offer a glimmer of hope,” he added.

Rystad describes itself on its site as an independent research and energy intelligence company, “equipping clients with data, insights and education that power better decision-making”.

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Shorts and Longs Are Cutting Risk in Oil

  • The ongoing U.S.-Canada tariff war has created significant market uncertainty.
  • Europe’s gas withdrawal season is coming to an end, with lower-than-average inventory draws due to warmer weather.
  • Brent crude hit a six-month low earlier this week and speculative traders cut both long and short positions to reduce risk.
Traders

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to double his planned tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%. Trump said his latest move comes in response to a threat by the province of Ontario to put a 25-percent surcharge on electricity exports to some U.S. states. Whereas Trump delayed most of the tariffs he had imposed on Canada and Mexico, Canada has responded forcefully, with the Canadian government announcing on Monday it would match American tariffs on roughly $30 billion worth of U.S. goods initially, and another $125 billion 21 days later, for a total of $155 billion. Meanwhile, Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced he will move forward with a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to three U.S. states starting Monday, and turn off access completely if the United States adds new tariffs on Canadian goods.

However, the tariff war took yet another turn after the provincial government of Ontario suspended its planned surcharges on electricity sold to the United States, prompting Trump to withdraw his threat to double Canada’s tariffs.

The back and forth tariff wars and the ensuing market confusion about the potential effect of various U.S. energy and foreign policies have been acting as a severe drag on oil prices. Brent crude for May delivery rebounded 2.1% to trade at $70.98 per barrel at 11.50 am ET on Wednesday after Trump withdrew his threats while WTI crude climbed 2.3% to change hands at $67.74 per barrel. Oil prices have cratered over the past month with Brent prices well off its one-month high of $77 per barrel. Front-month Brent settled at a six-month settlement low of $69.28 per barrel on 10 March, and sank to a three-year low of $68.33/bbl intra-day on 5 March. All of the first 15 months on the Brent curve fell w/w by more than $2/bbl; the w/w fall for the front month was $2.34/bbl and the largest move was the $2.45/bbl w/w fall in the August 2025 contract. Further along the curve, Brent for delivery five years out fell by $0.63/bbl to a 20-month low of $66.37/bbl. Of the 35 trading days since President Trump’s inauguration, Brent has settled lower on 20 and has recorded a lower intra-high on 25 days, with the cumulative price fall reaching $10.01/bbl at settlement on 10 March.

According to commodity analysts at Standard Chartered, the price undershoot has been exacerbated by a further deterioration in speculative positioning.

StanChart’s combined crude oil money-manager positioning index has fallen by 6.9 w/w to -35.0, while the equivalent indices have fallen w/w for all the main products (heating oil, gasoil, and gasoline blendstock).

The experts note that while the balance of speculative positioning has shifted towards the short side, both shorts and longs have been cutting risk.

Over the past week, longs across the four main Brent and WTI contracts fell 44.7 million barrels (mb) to a 12-week low of 467.5mb, while shorts fell by 21.8 mb from the previous week’s six-month high to 249.8 mb.

Meanwhile, the rate of Europe’s gas draws decelerated sharply over the past week, with the EU gas inventory withdrawal season almost over. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data, Europe’s gas inventories stood at 43.04 billion cubic metres (bcm) on 9 March, with the w/w draw clocking in at 1.54 bcm, or just 59% of the five-year average and less than half the previous week’s 3.11 bcm draw. The draws over the past weekend were particularly low due to warm weather, with inventories falling by just 28 million cubic metres (mcm) on Saturday and 32 mcm on Sunday; the lowest draws since the start of the withdrawal season in early November. On both days, gas inventories actually increased in France and Germany.

European natural gas futures fell toward €42/MWh on Wednesday after Ukraine accepted a U.S-proposed 30-day ceasefire with Russia, ending three days of gains. The truce raised hopes for a potential easing of the conflict and the possibility of increased Russian gas supplies.

NN: The  $3 range in oil has now become a $2 range and I suspect by the end of today will be back  to a $1 range. Let me tell you the real story. the big boys are getting trashed out whacked  and closing out this trade. For some reason they bought it to the algorithm bullshit that the war would be over and Russia would be producing the shit out of oil.  The Truth is Russia’s been producing to Ita OPEC quota. And Russia is not going over his quota.  it’s bumping up against is agreement with OPEC. We just have to wait this peade deal out.  If there is a Ukraine piece deal with Russia  we could get an oil to swoon the bottom end of the range. It might be a buying opportunity….. for now everybody take a deep breath.  Waves of oil are not going to be landing on  US shores

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Khamenei: Negotiations with US will tighten sanctions……. Khamenei: Trump’s letter aims to deceive public

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated on Wednesday that negotiating with the United States will not remove Washington’s sanctions on his country but will only “increase” pressure. “If the goal of entering negotiations is for the sanctions to be removed, negotiating with this US administration won’t result in the sanctions being removed,” Khamenei clarified in a post on X. Earlier today, it was reported that US President Donald Trump’s letter to Khamenei would be delivered to Iran by an official from the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

nn we need to bomb these assholes into their virgin heaven
Khamenei: Trump’s letter aims to deceive public

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei criticized on Wednesday the letter sent to him by United States President Donald Trump calling on Iran to negotiate a nuclear deal. He said the letter is a “deception of the world’s public opinion” designed to make the international community believe Iran is not willing to join talks. “We sat down and negotiated for several years. This same person threw the completed, signed negotiation off the table and tore it up,” Khamenei said, referring to Trump’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, during his first term in office. He claimed there is no need for talks “when we know it won’t work.”

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EIA Weekly Petroleum Report

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending March 7, 2025

 

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 435.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.7 million barrels per day during the week ending March 7, 2025, which was 321 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 86.5% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.5 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.5 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 343 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.8 million barrels per day, 10.6% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 578 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 249 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 5.7 million barrels from last week and are 1% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories
both decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels last week and are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 3.4 million barrels from last week and are 10% below the five year
average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 6.0 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.7 million barrels a day, up by 3.9% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.7 million barrels a day, up by 0.1% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.1 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 9.5% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.5% compared with the same four week period last year.

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Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum imports take effect

The United States started enforcing 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, as per President Donald Trump’s announcement. Previously, trade restrictions mainly targeted Mexico, Canada and China, but the new tariffs now cover all steel and aluminum imports. The move eliminates exemptions from Trump’s 2018 metal tariffs and increases aluminum duties from 10%. While two rounds of tariffs on China have already been enacted, some Canadian and most Mexican trade remains exempt until at least April 2. Just before finalizing the policy, the White House backed away from an earlier threat to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum.

nn: the fun has begun
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Ukraine Hits Major Russian Refinery In Massive Drone Attack

Ukrainian forces hit and damaged the Moscow Oil Refinery and a Druzhba oil pipeline facility in Oryol Oblast in a fierce overnight drone attack on Monday, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces has reported. According to Ukrainian officials, the giant refinery–capable of processing 11 million metric tons of oil per year and covers nearly half of Moscow’s gasoline and diesel supplies–was hit multiple times, although Gazprom Neft, which owns the refinery, didn’t respond to a Bloomberg request for a comment. According to the General Staff, the operation “struck a number of Russian strategic objects, enabling armed aggression against Ukraine.” Lately, Ukraine has launched targeted attacks on industrial and military facilities in Russia’s rear in a bid to undermine Moscow’s ability to wage its war.  The attacks came as a delegation of U.S. officials arrived at Saudi Arabia for peace talks with Ukraine. Ukrainian officials have revealed that Kyiv is planning to propose a ceasefire in the sea and sky during the truce meeting, with Trump telling reporters he believes the talks will result in “a lot of progress”.  Last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declined a proposal by Trump to acquire approximately 50% of Ukraine’s rare earth mineral rights. Valued at several trillion dollars, Ukraine’s mineral reserves include lithium, titanium and graphite that are essential for high-tech industries. The proposal was delivered by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as part of a bid to compensate Washington for assistance to Kyiv. Trump had suggested that Ukraine owed the United States $500 billion worth of resources for its past military support.  However, Zelenskyy is seeking better terms, including U.S. and European security guarantees. Trump’s initial proposal did not include provisions for future assistance, which Zelenskyy deems necessary. Zelenskyy’s team has developed an offer for a mineral partnership in exchange for security guarantees, which was announced earlier this month.

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Trump takes aim at Canada with doubled tariffs on metals

  • Trump’s planned tariffs on steel, aluminum products from Canada rise to 50%
  • Ontario Premier Ford vows to maintain electricity levy until US tariffs are removed
  • Financial markets react negatively; S&P 500 index and Canadian dollar decline
WASHINGTON, March 11 (Reuters) – President Donald Trumpon Tuesday doubled his planned tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum products from Canada to 50%, in response to the province of Ontario’s decision to place, opens new tab a 25% tariff on its electricity exports to the U.S. Trump said in a post on his Truth Social media platform that he has instructed his commerce secretary to add an additional 25% tariff on the metals products that will go into effect on Wednesday morning.
“Also, Canada must immediately drop their Anti-American Farmer Tariff of 250% to 390% on various U.S. dairy products, which has long been considered outrageous. I will shortly be declaring a National Emergency on Electricity within the threatened area,” Trump wrote.
He also threatened to “substantially increase” tariffs on cars coming into the U.S. on April 2 “if other egregious, long time Tariffs are not likewise dropped by Canada.”
In a post on X sent after Trump’s latest threat, Ontario Premier Doug Ford – whose government is hiking the price on the electricity it generates for portions of New York state, Michigan and Minnesota – said he would not back down until all of Trump’s tariffs on Canadian imports to the U.S. were “gone for good.” The latest broadside by Trump on tariffs delivered another painful jolt to financial markets, with the benchmark S&P 500 index  sliding almost 1.0% as investors worry the import taxes will hurt U.S. growth and rekindle inflation. The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX Composite index was down about 0.5% and the Canadian dollar fell against the greenback.
 Broader 25% levies on all steel and aluminum imported to the U.S. from anywhere are due to take effect early on Wednesday. Those tariffs will apply to millions of tons of steel and aluminum imports from Canada, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and other countries that had been entering the U.S. duty free under carve-outs. Trump has vowed that the tariffs will be applied “without exceptions or exemptions” in a move he hopes will aid the struggling U.S. industries. Trump’s hyper-focus on tariffs since taking office in January has rattled investor, consumer and business confidence in ways that economists increasingly worry could cause a recession. A small business survey on Tuesday showed sentiment weakening for a third straight month, fully eroding a confidence boost following Trump’s November 5 election victory. Reuters polls of economists last week showed risks to the Mexican, Canadian and U.S. economies are piling up amid a chaotic implementation of U.S. tariffs that has created deep uncertainties for businesses and decision-makers. The surveys showed 70 of 74 economists polled across Canada, the U.S. and Mexico judged that the risk of a recession had increased, and upside risks to inflation in the U.S. rose in particular.
nn: to complicated to cover here. ill do a blackmask market uppdate