Oil up by more than 1% on Latest Middle East turmoil…….Israel hits suspected chemical weapons sites in Syria

The prices of oil futures grew on Monday as traders assessed the potential consequences of the opposition forces seizing power in Syria and ousting President Bashar al-Assad. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for January’s settlements increased  to sell for $68.50 per barrel. Simultaneously, Brent for February’s deliveries priced at  $72.37 per barrel.

“The development in Syria has added a new layer of political uncertainty in the Middle East, providing some support to the market,” Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting analyst Tomomichi Akuta told Reuters. “But Saudi Arabia’s price reductions and OPEC+’s production cut extension last week underscored weak demand from China, indicating the market may soften toward year-end,” Akuta added. “Markets are largely pricing that the tensions in Syria will remain contained within its own space and the risks of a wider oil supply disruption remain low,” IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong told Bloomberg.

Israel hits suspected chemical weapons sites in Syria

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said on Monday that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck sites in Syria suspected of containing chemical weapons and long-range missiles amid political turmoil in the country. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown yesterday, leading to uncertainty over future leadership. Sa’ar said Israel targeted the sites “so they will not fall in the hands of extremists.” He insisted the IDF’s presence on Syrian territory is “limited and temporary” and only aiming to ensure Israel’s security.

nn adio file:
the enemy of my enemy is still my enemy

Trump says Assad lost Russia’s support

United States President-elect Donald Trump released a statement about Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fleeing Syria after rebels took control of Damascus. He said Assad’s departure was caused by Russia no longer supporting Assad and that its focus shifted to Ukraine, where he stated nearly 600,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured in the ongoing war. Trump also described both Russia and Iran as “weakened,” citing Russia’s struggles in Ukraine and economic difficulties and Iran’s challenges due to Israel’s apparent “fighting success.” Trump urged an immediate ceasefire and called for negotiations to prevent further destruction, appealing to Russian President Vladimir Putin and suggesting China could play a role in brokering peace. “I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The World is waiting,” he concluded.

Syrian President Has Fallen to Rebels

  • Opposition group HTS says it has taken the capital Damascus
  • Assad’s whereabouts unknown; his fall a blow to Russia, Iran

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has fled Damascus, according to multiple reports, after rebel forces entered the capital following a stunning territorial advance over a few days. The toppling of the longtime ruler is sending shockwaves through the Middle East and will be a major blow to Russia and Iran, his main foreign backers. Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, which has led the push to oust Assad and his government, said it entered Damascus on Saturday evening and captured the key city of Homs — about 100 miles (160 kilometers) north of the capital — around the same time. Other areas of the country, including in the north near the Turkish border and in the south, have been captured by different groups. There were reports of Syrians in Damascus celebrating the downfall of the widely despised regime. HTS’s leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, called on all of the Syrian government’s forces in the capital to stand down. Al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani, said Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali will remain in his role until there’s an official handover. Assad’s whereabouts are still unknown. He left the country for an undisclosed location, the Associated Press reported, citing Rami Abdurrahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Agence France-Presse reported rebels as saying Assad had “fled,” while Reuters cited two army officers as saying the leader had flown out of Damascus.The 59-year-old, who took over from his father Hafez in 2000, made a last-ditch attempt to remain in power, including indirect diplomatic overtures to the US and President-elect Donald Trump, Bloomberg reported on Saturday. In a sign of how weak his military position was, he ordered his army to fall back on Damascus, essentially ceding much of the country, including Homs, to the insurgents. Trump took to social media to say that the US should “have nothing to do with” the developments in Syria. “This is not our fight,” he said. “Let it play out. Do not get involved!” Assad lost large swaths of the northwest of the country in late November as opposition fighters made a sudden advance out of Idlib province. They first captured Aleppo, one of the biggest cities in Syria, and then advanced on Hama. The rapid collapse of Syria’s government has taken Russia, Iran, the US and Israel, which borders Syria, by surprise. In 2015, Russia and Iran came to Assad’s aid and helped turn the tide in Syria’s war — which began four years earlier — in his favor. This time both Tehran and Moscow, which has a naval base at the Syrian port of Tartus, have been stretched by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. While Iran said it would send troops to Syria if Assad requested it and tried to drum up support for him among Arab states, it was ultimately unwilling or unable to do that. Moreover, Tehran’s most powerful proxy militia group, Lebanon-based Hezbollah, has been hugely degraded since September by war with Israel. Its fighters were crucial to helping Assad stay in power from early in the civil war. The Syrian conflict has left between 300,000 to 500,000 people dead and displaced more than 10 million, with many of them fleeing abroad, according to United Nations agencies and Syrian organizations. NN: This is ugly. Assad was to busy killing his own people to export Jihad. ISIS and Islamic Jihad rebranded has taken Syria.

nn audio file: making a monster

Syrian rebels reiterate they have ‘freed’ Damascus, ousted Assad….

Syrian rebels reiterated in a televised statement that they have freed the capital city of Damascus and ousted President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. They also stated that they have freed all those “unjustly detained” by Assad, with the group saying earlier it had broken into the notorious Sednaya military prison and freed all the inmates. “We wish all our fighters and citizens preserve and maintain the property of the state of Syria. Long live Syria,” the group said. NN: ISIS under Mohammed Golani (ISIS) come to power…… slick trick

Syrian opposition activists say insurgents have reached the suburbs of Damascus

BEIRUT (AP) — Insurgents’ stunning march across Syria gained speed on Saturday with news that they had reached the suburbs of the capital and the government forced to deny rumors that President Bashar Assad had fled the country.

The move, reported by pro-government media and an opposition war monitor, was the first time that opposition forces reach the outskirts of the Syrian capital since 2018, when Syrian troops recaptured the region adjacent to the capital following a yearslong siege. It came after the Syrian army withdrew from much of southern Syria on Saturday, leaving more areas of the country, including two provincial capitals, under the control of opposition fighters.

The rapid advances by insurgents is a stunning reversal of fortunes for Assad, who appears to be largely on his own, with his usual allies preoccupied with other conflicts.

His chief international backer, Russia, is busy with its war in Ukraine, and Lebanon’s powerful Hezbollah, which at one point sent thousands of fighters to shore up his forces, has been weakened by a yearlong conflict with Israel. Iran, meanwhile, has seen its proxies across the region degraded by Israeli regular airstrikes.

The U.N.’s special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, called for urgent talks in Geneva to ensure an “orderly political transition” in Syria. Speaking to reporters at the annual Doha Forum in Qatar, he said the situation in Syria was changing by the minute. Amid the dramatic developments, Syria’s state media denied rumors flooding social media that Assad has left the country, saying he is performing his duties in the capital, Damascus.

Rami Abdurrahman, who heads the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, said insurgents are now active in the Damascus suburbs of Maadamiyah, Jaramana and Daraya. He added that opposition fighters on Saturday were also marching from eastern Syria toward the Damascus suburb of Harasta.

A commander with the insurgents, Hassan Abdul-Ghani, posted on the Telegram messaging app that opposition forces have started carrying out the “final stage” of their offensive by encircling Damascus. He added that insurgents were headed from southern Syria toward Damascus.

Syria’s military, meanwhile, sent large numbers of reinforcements to defend the key central city of Homs, Syria’s third largest, as insurgents approached its outskirts.

Pedersen said a date for the talks in Geneva would be announced later and would discuss the implementation of U.N. Resolution 2254.

The resolution adopted in 2015 called for a Syrian-led political process, starting with the establishment of a transitional governing body, followed by the drafting of a new constitution and ending with U.N.-supervised elections.

Pedersen said the need for an orderly political transition “has never been more urgent,”

Abdurrahman reported Saturday that Iran’s military advisers have started leaving Syria. He added that Iran-backed fighters in eastern Syria, mainly from Afghanistan and Pakistan, have withdrawn into central Syria.

The shock offensive began Nov. 27 led by the jihadi Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, or HTS, during which gunmen captured the northern city of Aleppo, Syria’s largest, and the central city of Hama, the country’s fourth largest city. The group has its origins in al-Qaida and is considered a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the United Nations.

HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani told CNN in an exclusive interview Thursday from Syria that the aim of the offensive is to overthrow Assad’s government.

The Britain-based Observatory said Syrian troops have withdrawn from much of the two southern provinces and are sending reinforcements to Homs, where a battle is looming. If the insurgents capture Homs, they would cut the link between Damascus, Assad’s seat of power, and the coastal region where the president enjoys wide support.

The Syrian army said in a statement Saturday that it has carried out redeployment and repositioning in Sweida and Daraa after its checkpoints came under attack by “terrorists.” The army said it is setting up a “strong and coherent defensive and security belt in the area,” apparently to defend Damascus from the south.

Since Syria’s conflict broke out in March 2011, the Syrian government has been referring to opposition gunmen as terrorists.

In the gas-rich nation of Qatar, the foreign ministers of Iran, Russia and Turkey were scheduled to meet to discuss the situation in Syria. Turkey is a main backer of the rebels seeking to overthrow Assad.

Qatar’s top diplomat, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, criticized Assad for failing to take advantage of the lull in fighting in recent years to address the country’s underlying problems. “Assad didn’t seize this opportunity to start engaging and restoring his relationship with his people,” he said.

Sheikh Mohammed said he was surprised by how quickly the rebels have advanced and said there is a real threat to Syria’s “territorial integrity.” He said the war could “damage and destroy what is left if there is no sense of urgency” to start a political process. After the fall of the cities of Daraa and Sweida early Saturday, Syrian government forces remain in control of five provincial capitals — Damascus, Homs and Quneitra, as well as Latakia and Tartus on the Mediterranean cost.

Tartus is home to the only Russian naval base outside the former Soviet Union while Latakia is home to a major Russian air base.

On Friday, U.S.-backed fighters of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces captured wide parts of the eastern province of Deir el-Zour that borders Iraq as well as the provincial capital that carries the same name. The capture of areas in Deir el-Zour is a blow to Iran’s influence in the region as the area is the gateway to the corridor linking the Mediterranean to Iran, a supply line for Iran-backed fighters, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

With the capture of a main border crossing with Iraq by the SDF and after opposition fighters took control of the Naseeb border crossing to Jordan in southern Syria, the Syrian government’s only gateway to the outside world is the Masnaa border crossing with Lebanon.

Syrian rebel leader says group aims to end Assad regime…….Erdogan hopes rebels gain ground in Syria……Syrian rebels seize major army base in Daraa province

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group (HTS), revealed the goal of the forces’ offensive in Syria is to “overthrow” the regime of President Bashar al-Assad using “all available means.” In an exclusive interview with CNN published on Friday, the leader asserted that despite Iran and Russia’s efforts to prop up the regime, it is “dead.” Al-Jolani called for a shift in Syria’s governance “based on institutions, not one where a single ruler makes arbitrary decisions.” He also expressed a strong desire for the departure of foreign forces, including those from the United States, Turkey, Russia, and Iran, as well as its proxy groups. The rebel group has made significant advances, seizing control of key cities such as Aleppo and Hama. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the forces are now just 5 kilometers from Homs after capturing the towns of Rastan and Talbisseh, a strategic move that would “cut off the main road leading to the Syrian coast.”

Erdogan hopes rebels gain ground in Syria

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that “the march of the opposition continues” as rebel groups keep advancing across Syria. “We hope this march in Syria will continue without any issues,” Erdogan added as the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group said it intends to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad using “all available means.” Erdogan said he extended an invitation to Assad to “determine the future of Syria together” but that he did not receive a positive response. Assad’s regime has been forced to surrender the major cities of Aleppo and Hama to the rebels following a surprise offensive that started in late November.

Syrian rebels seize major army base in Daraa province

The Southern Operations Room, a newly formed group representing rebels in southern Syria, revealed on Friday that it took control over a major government military base in Daraa province. “Our destination is Damascus, and our meeting point is the public square of Umayyads,” the rebels said in a statement shared with CNN, calling on government forces to abandon “Assad regime’s criminal gang” and stand with rebels. The rebel group also claimed to have seized some government posts along the Jordanian-Syrian border. “Our forces are now securing the border strip following the surrender of the regime forces stationed there,” it added. Previously, Jordanian Foreign Minister Mazen al-Faraya said the country closed its only border crossing with Syria.

Crude oil falls over on demand concerns……. Markets not “BUYING” into the latest OPEC+ cuts 

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, will prolong the unwinding of production cuts until 2026,  The current timeline for the unwinding plan was set to run from January to December of next year. The United Arab Emirates is set to see a gradual increase of 300,000 barrels to its oil production baseline, beginning in January 2025, to be implemented over a nine-month period.

Markets not “BUYING” into the latest cuts 

The price of crude oil for front-month settlements dipped on Friday after data on industrial production in Germany rekindled concerns about the commodity’s consumption in Europe’s largest economy. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for January contracts f $67.22 a barrel. Brent for February deliveries declined by  to $71.05 per barrel.

Israel targets Hezbollah weapon transfer routes…….. Hezbollah vows support for Assad amid rebel incursion

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated on Friday that its Air Force (IAF) attacked the crossings on the border between Lebanon and Syria allegedly used for transferring weapons to Hezbollah. In its posts on X, the IDF accused Hezbollah, supported by what it put simply as the Syrian regime, of using civilian infrastructure to conduct terrorist attacks and act against Israel. “The IDF will continue to act to remove any threat to the State of Israel and will not allow Hezbollah to be restored,” the military stressed. The update came amid the seemingly canceled ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, with the country, amid the continuing violations of the truce by both parties, resuming its operations in Lebanon.

Hezbollah vows support for Assad amid rebel incursion

Hezbollah’s Secretary General Naim Qassem pledged Thursday to continue support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as rebels intensify their attacks. “They will not be able to achieve their goals despite what they have done in past days, and we as Hezbollah will be by Syria’s side in thwarting the goals of this aggression as much as we can,” Qassem said while criticizing the opposition forces, labeling them as “terrorists.” He assured that Hezbollah remains committed to assisting Damascus in opposing these challenges, although he refrained from specifying the nature of the aid. In addition, Qassem disclosed that Hezbollah and Iran have allocated $77 million to support Lebanese individuals affected by ongoing conflicts with Israel, with plans to increase assistance further. NN: GOOD!! now the savages neutralized by the Jew are now  savagely attacking each other. How come the UN is not sanctioning Syria? Where is the world criminal court? How come they are not issuing red letter arrest warrants for Hezbollah, Iran or Assad of Syria?  I know they are not Jews.

OPEC+ Delays Revival of Its Oil Production by Three Months

OPEC+ NUCLEAR OPTION

OPEC+ delayed the revival of its oil production by three months, delegates said, the third time it’s deferred the move while crude prices struggle amid a looming surplus. The group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia pushed back the series of supply increases, which had been due to begin with a hike of 180,000 barrels a day in January. It will instead start in April and unwind the cuts at a slower place than previously planned, according to one delegate who asked not to be named because the information isn’t public. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners had first announced in June that they would restore output halted since 2022, reviving 2.2 million barrels per day in monthly tranches. But its plans have been thwarted as oil demand falters in top consumer China, while supplies boom from the US, Brazil and Canada. Global markets face a surplus in 2025 even if OPEC+ doesn’t add a single barrel, according to the International Energy Agency. In an indication of OPEC+’s supply predicament, Thursday’s agreement means the group will only have fully unwound its so-called voluntary production cuts by September 2026, a full year later than initially planned.

Full year of OPEC+ curbs won’t avert surplus

Source: Bloomberg calculations using IEA data

Oil prices have declined about 18% since early July as traders shrugged off turmoil in Middle East and focus instead the slowdown in China, which has grappled with a range of economic challenges. Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have predicted that crude will keep sliding into the $60s next year, even if OPEC+ continues to restrain production. That poses a financial threat for many members including the Saudis, who have already been forced to cut spending on lavish economic transformation plans. Their oil-market ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin, seeks revenue to continue waging war on Ukraine. Pausing the supply restart also gives OPEC+ some time to assess the impact of President-Elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House. He has signaled he could renew the campaign of “maximum pressure” on crude exports from Iran, deployed during his first term to curtail Tehran’s nuclear program. Squeezing the Islamic Republic’s oil sales could leave a gap for its Middle East adversaries to fill. On the other hand, Trump has also warned of punitive trade tariffs on several countries including China, which could deliver a fresh blow to Beijing’s economic activity and fuel consumption

WTI Falls as Economic Data Weighs on Market

Oil fell 2% to settle below $69 a barrel as tepid US economic data undercut OPEC+’s progress on a deal to keep output constrained. The decline comes after crude futures tested their 50-day moving average, a key level that had spurred some technical buying. But slowing US services activity growth and swelling fuel stockpiles — both signals of weak demand — weighed on the market.

“The failure of WTI to hold above $70 and its 50-day moving average reinforces these levels as resistance,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Additionally, volumes today are significantly lighter than the 10-day average, indicating this could be a ‘wait-and-see’ market as we approach year-end.”

Crude has been locked in a band of roughly $6 since the middle of October, buffeted by the imminent Donald Trump presidency, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, and a lackluster demand outlook from top importer China. Mixed energy data from the US on Wednesday further muddied the picture, with weak diesel demand and record oil production offsetting a surprise draw in crude inventories.

Still, fresh US sanctions on Iran’s shadowfleet, and an expected agreement by OPEC+ nations to delay production increases for another three months are keeping a floor under prices. OPEC+ is due to finalize supply plans at an online meeting on today. Even before OPEC+ ministers start toddy’s meeting on oil production, traders are looking beyond it. For the past week, the cartel led by Saudi Arabia and Russia has been holding preliminary talks to once again delay plans for reviving halted barrels. The group is firming up an agreement — to be finalized at Today’s gathering — that would push back a sequence of monthly hikes from January until the second quarter. Unfortunately for the alliance, crude traders already assumed the pause was unavoidable and have priced it in. Benchmark Brent futures have barely budged in the week since OPEC+ began negotiations, hovering around $74 a barrel. That could be complacency: The Saudis have a habit of springing bullish surprises to deter short sellers. Nonetheless, investors are looking past the decision, focusing on oil-market conditions in early 2025 — and those don’t augur well for prices. Global demand growth is cooling as top consumer China falters, while supplies from the US, Guyana and Canada are booming, according to the International Energy Agency. A hefty surplus looms, even if OPEC+ doesn’t add a single barrel next year. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners have already twice postponed their road map for restoring 2.2 million barrels a day in monthly tranches. Further delays may strain the group’s cohesion. Analysts increasingly wonder whether OPEC+ will eventually throw in the towel. The United Arab Emirates appears eager to deploy new production capacity, driving up exports last month to the highest in seven years. “They don’t want to collapse the price,” Bank of America Corp. notes, but “patience is running a little thinner than it used to.” Even Iran — one of OPEC’s founding members — acknowledged last week that the cartel’s strategy has proved self-defeating as the pursuit of higher oil prices finances an endless tide of rival supply. As brokers PVM Oil Associates Ltd. write today: “One cannot help but ponder how long the organization and its members are willing to sacrifice market share” for “a seemingly dubious, and chiefly ineffective, project.”