Author: BlackMask Financial

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Israel says it’s moving closer to Lebanon ceasefire

  • US news website Axios: Israel and Lebanon reach agreement on deal terms
  • Lebanese officials express cautious optimism
  • Israeli ambassador reported to say deal could be within days
  • Far-right Ben-Gvir: Israel should fight until ‘absolute victory’
  • Israel presses bombardment of Beirut’s southern suburbs
JERUSALEM/BEIRUT, Nov 25 (Reuters) – A senior Israeli official said on Monday Israel’s cabinet would meet on Tuesday to weigh a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah that could be cemented in coming days, and a Lebanese official said Beirut had been told by Washington that an accord could be announced “within hours”. Israeli officials had said earlier in the day that a deal to end the war was getting closer though there were still some issues to resolve, while two senior Lebanese officials voiced guarded optimism even as Israeli strikes pounded Lebanon anew.
U.S. news website Axios, citing an unnamed senior U.S. official, said Israel and Lebanon had agreed to the terms of a deal, and that Israel’s security cabinet was expected to approve the deal on Tuesday.
Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, said talks toward a ceasefire with Hezbollah were “moving forward” but he stressed that Israel would maintain an ability to strike southern Lebanon under any agreement.
 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office declined to comment on the Axios report. In Beirut, Lebanese Deputy Parliament Speaker Elias Bou Saab told Reuters there were “no serious obstacles” left to beginning implementation of a U.S.-proposed ceasefire with Israel. Bou Saab said the proposal would entail an Israeli military withdrawal from south Lebanon and regular Lebanese army troops deploying in the border region within 60 days. Hostilities have intensified in parallel with the diplomatic flurry: Over the weekend, Israel carried out powerful airstrikes, one of which killed at least 29 people in central Beirut – while the Iran-backed Hezbollah unleashed one of its biggest rocket salvoes yet on Sunday, firing 250 missiles.
In Beirut, Israeli airstrikes levelled more of the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs on Monday, sending clouds of debris billowing over the Lebanese capital. Efforts to clinch a truce appeared to advance last week when U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein declared significant progress after talks in Beirut before holding meetings in Israel and then returning to Washington. “We are moving in the direction towards a deal, but there are still some issues to address,” Israeli government spokesperson David Mencer said, without elaborating. Michael Herzog, the Israeli ambassador in Washington, told Israel’s GLZ radio an agreement was close and “it could happen within days … We just need to close the last corners”, according to a post on X by GLZ senior anchorman Efi Triger. Lebanese deputy speaker Bou Saab said earlier on Monday that a decisive moment was approaching and expressed cautious optimism. “The balance is slightly tilted towards there being (an agreement), but by a very small degree, because a person like Netanyahu cannot be trusted,” he told a news conference. A second senior Lebanese official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Beirut had not received any new Israeli demands from U.S. mediators, who were describing the atmosphere as positive and saying “things are in progress”.
The official told Reuters a ceasefire could be clinched this week.
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Oil Prices Dip After a Week of Gains…… WTI down over 2% amid possible Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire

Crude oil prices started the week with a dip after booking a gain of 6% last week, fueled mostly by geopolitical factors as the war between Russia and Ukraine escalated. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $74.58 per barrel, with WTI at $70.65 per barrel. At the same time, Iran changed its tune on enriched uranium in anticipation of tighter sanction enforcement by Washington after Donald Trump takes office in January. Bloomberg reported Tehran had said it would boost its capacity to enrich uranium after it received a censure from the International Atomic Energy Agency.  Israeli media reported yesterday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to the ceasefire proposal “in principle,” while Axios wrote today that the Biden administration expects Israel to approve the deal. The calming of tensions in the Middle East would ease some oil supply worries. “The IAEA censure and Iran’s response heightens the likelihood that Trump will look to enforce sanctions against Iran’s oil exports when he comes into power,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar told Bloomberg, adding some 1 million barrels daily in Iranian supply could be at risk of disruption. The International Atomic Energy Agency last Thursday passed a resolution that ordered Iran to step up cooperation with the regulator, after the UK, France, Germany, and the United States dismissed Tehran’s recent pledge to cap its enriched uranium stocks as “insufficient and insincere”, according to Reuters. “Markets are concerned not only about damage to oil ports and infrastructure, but also the possibility of war contagion and involvement of more countries,” Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva told Reuters. Tehran said yesterday it will hold talks with the UK, France, and Germany next Friday, to discuss its nuclear power program and likely the IAEA resolution. “Oil prices are starting the new week with some  cool-off as market participants await more cues from geopolitical developments and the Fed’s policy outlook to set the tone,” IG analyst Yeap Jun Rong told the publication. NN: Its close to a done peace deal

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Israel and Lebanon on verge of ceasefire deal

  • ‘We are close to deal,’ Michael Herzog says to Army Radio
  • Still unclear if Hezbollah will agree to Israeli proposals

Israel is potentially days away from a cease-fire deal with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the Israeli ambassador to the United States said, following a new round of shuttle diplomacy by a senior envoy for the outgoing Biden administration. “We are close to deal,” Michael Herzog told Israel’s Army Radio on Monday. “It could happen within days.” There have been similar predictions by other Israeli and US officials in recent weeks and it remains unclear if Hezbollah will accept a deal. The Iran-backed group has been severely weakened after two months of increased Israeli sabotage, air strikes and ground incursions in southern Lebanon. But it’s still able to fire rockets into Israel on a daily basis and put up resistance against Israeli ground forces. On Sunday, Hezbollah fired at least 250 rockets and drones into Israel, wounding several people, and the Israeli Air Force struck targets in Lebanon. NN: This is known as posturing for peace. The two sides have been in conflict since Hezbollah began launching strikes against Israel in October last year in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza. Both groups are deemed terrorist organizations by the US and many other countries. White House envoy Amos Hochstein was in the region last week to try to clinch a cease-fire before President Joe Biden hands over to Donald Trump in January. According to Army Radio, once the Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signs off on a truce, Washington will take it to Beirut, where government officials have been serving as intermediaries with Hezbollah. Last week, one of Hezbollah’s main political allies, Lebanese House Speaker Nabih Berri, said there was progress but there were still “technical details” to resolve. Talks between Israel and Hamas over a cease-fire in Gaza have been stalled for months. Though the conflicts are connected, there’s little sign a deal over Lebanon would increase the chances of a truce in Gaza. 

NN: Its over a done deal BlackMask pod cast:

secret Trump peace deal
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Putin orders serial production of Oreshnik hypersonic missile, warns it can be used again

Nov. 23 (UPI) — Russian President Vladimir Putin says the new Oreshnik hypersonic missile used against Ukraine this week will go into serial production and is “ready to be used” again if necessary. Speaking on Friday during a televised meeting with members of his Security Council, defense industry officials and missile developers, the Russian leader said the Oreshnik cannot be stopped or intercepted and will be deployed as part of the country’s Strategic Missile Forces. “We need to launch serial production,” he said, according to the state-run TASS news agency. “Let’s say that the decision has been made that the system will go into serial production. Basically, it has already happened. “Putin added, “we have a stock of such systems ready to be used” if needed. The comments came a day after the missile was “successfully” tested in a strike against a Ukrainian aerospace plant in the first use of a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile by Russia during its 33-month-old invasion of its neighbor. Russia’s use of the missile follows Ukraine having fired U.S. and British long-range missiles this week after U.S. President Joe Biden gave Ukraine the green light to use Army Tactical Missile Systems to attack deeper within Russian territory. The situation has resulted in greatly raised tensions. NATO and Ukraine will hold emergency talks Tuesday as Russian leaders continued to make threats against the West, some with thinly veiled references to the use of nuclear arms. In an address to the nation Thursday after the Oreshnik strike, Putin warned there would be “further tests of our advanced missile systems based on the threats to the security of the Russian Federation.” He added, “We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against military facilities of those countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities, and in case of an escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond decisively and in mirror-like manner.” During Friday’s Kremlin meeting, Strategic Missile Forces Commander Sergey Karakayev said the Oreshnik is capable of reaching targets across the European continent.”Based on the tasks and the range of this weapon, it can hit targets across entire Europe, which sets it apart from other high-precision long-range weapons,” he said, according to TASS. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev seemed to once again play the nuclear card Saturday in an interview with the Al Arabiya TV channel, accusing the United States and Britain of “joining” Ukraine in its fight to repel Russian invaders. “If the escalation scenario continues to unfold, it won’t be possible to exclude anything because NATO countries have in fact joined the conflict,” he said.  NN: These missiles have been around for 2 decades in longer range versions. They are NOT game changers. You will here a lot more about this. Its called posturing for peace,

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WTI Hits $71 as Geopolitical Risks Mount

Oil rose as geopolitical tensions from Russia to Iran ratcheted higher while strength in equity markets increased the appeal of risk assets.

West Texas Intermediate climbed more than 1% to settle above $71 a barrel, an increase of more than 6% for the week, while Brent settled above $75 for the first time since Nov. 7. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has rapidly intensified following months of bloody attrition, with the use of longer-range missiles by both sides this week. At the same time, Iran said it will increase its nuclear fuel-making capacity after it was censured by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency. A gain in equity markets also gave crude a boost, though the rally was capped by a stronger dollar that makes commodities priced in the currency less attractive. Euro-area business activity unexpectedly shrank, a sign of the risks from heightened discord over trade. Still, bullish signs for crude emerged this week. WTI’s nearest timespread strengthened to 48 cents — indicating tighter supplies — after briefly flipping into a bearish contango structure earlier this week for the first time since February. Oil has swung between weekly gains and losses since mid-October, with a strong dollar, ample supply and indications of weak demand providing headwinds. At the same time, geopolitical tensions — including the Kremlin’s revamp of its nuclear doctrine this week — have caused temporary gains but failed to provide an extended uplift in the face of widespread expectations of a crude surplus next year. “The market is still complacent about geopolitical disruption risk,” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “President Trump will be willing to crimp Russian energy exports to get leverage for deals he wants to cut.” The US, meanwhile, sanctioned Russia’s Gazprombank, closing a loophole that Washington kept open over the course of the war because the lender is key for energy markets. The penalties increase the risk of a cut-off of some of the remaining Russian gas flows to a handful of central European nations. NN: All the Sadie’s have to do is open the export valve a crack which they are happy to do and any supply disruptions are over compensated for.

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Israel: Death of rabbi in UAE ‘act of antisemitic terrorism’

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Office and Foreign Ministry confirmed Sunday in a joint statement that the body of missing rabbi Zvi Kogan was found in the United Arab Emirates (UAE.) “The murder of Zvi Kogan, of blessed memory, is an abhorrent act of antisemitic terrorism. The State of Israel will use all means and will deal with the criminals responsible for his death to the fullest extent of the law,” it showed. Kogan, an envoy of the orthodox Jewish organization Chabad-Lubavitch, had been missing in Dubai since Thursday, causing Israeli intelligence agency Mossad and UAE authorities to look for him. The Brooklyn-based religious organization was founded in 1775. The cause of his death remains unclear. NN: Their is no such thing as peace with these savages.

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Trump nominates Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretory…… Musk: US headed for bankruptcy ‘super fast’

United States President-elect Donald Trump has chosen hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as his pick for Treasury secretary,  The founder and CEO of investment firm Key Square Group. He played a major role as an economic adviser and fundraiser during Trump’s campaign.  Bessent has long been seen as a top choice for the role, especially as it was reported Trump was leaning toward someone with Wall Street experience. Bessent is the founder of Key Square Management, a hedge fund that had less than $600 million in assets under management at the end of last year now down to $300 million. Key Square, lost money five of the past seven years ,

He worked for Democratic megadonor George Soros for years before that. Bessent donated about $3 million to Trump and other Republican causes this election season and previously said Trump was “very sophisticated on economic policy.” Bessent is known for being pro-tariff—tariffs are at the center of Trump’s economic policies—and called the import taxes a “negotiating tool with our trading partners” in a Fox News column last week. If confirmed, Bessent would make history as the first Senate-confirmed LGBTQ+ Republican Cabinet member.

NN a depression is guaranteed
KEY Square Capital Management is based out of Stamford. KEY Square Capital Management is a hedge fund with 7 clients and discretionary assets under management (AUM) of $307,033,902 (Form ADV from 2024-06-04).
Owners
  • BESSENT, SCOTT, KENNETH HOMER – CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER / CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER / LIMITED PARTNER
  • KEY SQUARE GP LLC – GENERAL PARTNER
  • RESTIVO, NICOLE, BRODSKY – CHIEF COMPLIANCE OFFICER, CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER
Performance Last 4 Quarters: -33.19%
Key Square received a $2 billion anchor investment (bail out) from George Soros. At the end of 2017, Key Square’s assets were $5.1 billion.  As of June 2024 the fund is down over $4.7 billion. Now worth   $307 million (Form ADV from 2024-06-04). Key Square, lost money five of the past seven years 

He is a LGBTQ Bessent is married to John Freeman, a former prosecutor, and they have two children. If confirmed, Bessent would be the first openly gay Treasury secretary. They live primarily in Charleston, S.C., and preserve historic mansions NN: Besent’s the fagot is cursed  GOD, Want proof? Key Square is a perianal loser. And he has sold his soul to the devil Soros. Together they are plotting a collapse of the dollar and another great depresion. They did it to England and Japan. Trump has really screwed up BIG  TIME. We could make a fortune in this,

 

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Putin: Russia to continue testing Oreshkin missiles…….. ATTACK ON THE US’: Russia reportedly threatens US defense base in Poland

Russian President Vladimir Putin said during a meeting with Defense Ministry officials and weapons developers on Friday that the country plans to continue testing its new intermediate-range Oreshnik missiles. Russia first used the missiles in an attack on Ukraine earlier this week, in what Putin called “successful” tests. He added that his country has a “stockpile” of the new missile systems and called Oreshnik a “guarantor” of Russia’s sovereignty. Following the use of the new missiles, the Russian president insisted that Moscow decided to use them in response to Ukraine striking its territory with American long-range ATACMS missiles.

ATTACK ON THE US’: Russia reportedly threatens US defense base in Poland

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said a United States anti-missile base in Redzikowo, Poland “is a priority target for potential neutralization.” The warning comes days after U.S. President Joe Biden authorized the use of long-range American missiles against Russian targets by Ukraine, the reported deployment of British Storm Shadow missiles by Kyiv against Russia, and the Kremlin’s own expansion of the conditions under which Moscow may use its nuclear weapons. The developments — along with Moscow’s recent use of North Korean troops on the battlefield against Ukraine — have heightened global fears Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s war is escalating to a new phase.“Given the level of threats posed by such Western military facilities, the missile defense base in Poland has long been included among the priority targets for potential neutralization. If necessary, this can be achieved using a wide range of advanced weaponry,” Zakharova claimed, according to an article by Russian state-owned news agency TASS. Referring to the American installation, “this inevitably heightens strategic risks and, consequently, raises the overall level of nuclear danger,” she said. The military base opened Nov. 13, after being originally commissioned by former U.S. President Barack Obama in 2009. Part of an American anti-missile shield, it is the first permanent installation of the U.S. armed forces in Poland. The Kremlin also interrupted a live press conference on potential peace negotiations to order Zakharova not to comment on Kyiv reporting that a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) struck Dnipro earlier that morning. “Masha, don’t comment at all on the ballistic missile strike on Yuzhmash, as the Westerners started talking about it,” was heard through the receiver. Yuzhmash may be in reference to a factory in Dnipro. If confirmed, the attack would be Moscow’s first use of an ICBM against Ukraine.

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Ukraine’s First-Ever ATACMS Strike in Russia

  • Ukraine fired US-made ATACMS missiles at Russia, the Kremlin said on Tuesday.
  • It appears to mark the first time that Ukraine has used these powerful weapons on Russian soil.
  • The attack caused a fire at a military facility in Russia’s western Bryansk region.

Ukraine fired US-supplied ATACMS long-range missiles into Russia for the first time, according to multiple reports citing US and Ukrainian officials. The attack could mark a significant escalation in the war. The strikes came shortly after President Joe Biden authorized the use of the powerful missiles by Ukraine, a major change in long-held US policy. Russia’s defense ministry said five Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, were shot down early Tuesday morning local time, adding that missile fragments caused a fire at a military facility in the country’s western Bryansk region. There were no injuries or substantial damage, Russia’s defense ministry said. Ukrainian media also reported on the strikes, with a defense source telling RBC-Ukraine that ATACMS had been used in a successful attack on a military facility in Bryansk. Ukraine’s military said that it “inflicted fire damage” at an arsenal in Bryansk, with 12 secondary explosions recorded. Kyiv said it destroyed Russian warehouses with ammunition, although it did not specify what weapon it used in the strikes. In recent months, Ukraine has relied heavily on domestically produced long-range attack drones to strike ammunition depots and other sensitive military targets inside Russia since it had been restricted from using Western missiles to do the job. Earlier on Tuesday, President Vladimir Putin approved an update to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, widening the scenarios in which it would consider a strike. The move seemed a direct response to US approval for Ukraine to use ATACMS in strikes on Russian territory. Russia has long warned the West against allowing Ukraine to use the weapons in attacks on its territory, and the Russian Foreign Ministry on Monday said any such strikes would result in “an appropriate and tangible” response.

Ukraine has used ATACMS, which have a maximum range of around 190 miles, as well as French and UK-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles in strikes on Russia-occupied territory in eastern Ukraine and on the Crimean peninsula. But until Tuesday, Ukraine had not used any of these long-range Western missiles to strike Russia itself.

Biden had long been concerned that lifting the restrictions on using long-range weapons in attacks on Russian territory could escalate the conflict. His decision to ease the restrictions comes just months before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. Trump, a skeptic of US support for Ukraine, may decide to reverse the order. The policy shift comes as Moscow has pulled thousands of North Korean troops to help it drive Ukrainian forces out of the territory they occupy in Russia’s Kursk region. Jon Finer, the US deputy national security advisor, said Monday that the US had made it “clear to the Russians that we would respond” to recent escalations, referring to North Korea’s involvement. Meanwhile, Russia has escalated its attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and cities, including a massive missile and drone barrage over the weekend. NN: Do the math. Russia gets 100,00 N. Korea troops. Ukraine get  0 from NATO  and 0 from the US.
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Russia and Ukraine Conflict Pushes Oil to Two-Week High

Crude oil prices extended their gains today and were set to end the week higher after Russia shot a new kind of ballistic missile at Ukraine in the latest sign that the escalation there continues. The strike, featuring a hypersonic medium-range missile that has not been used before in warfare, came in response to a Ukrainian attack with U.S. and British ATACMS missiles on Russian territory. There were fears that Russia would escalate to using nuclear weapons, especially after President Vladimir Putin this week reiterated the changes in Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which stipulate that a nuclear strike is acceptable on a country that is not itself a nuclear power but is being supported by a nuclear power.

“There’s an element of uncertainty as to how far each party could go in its attacks, which is injecting some anxiety into the oil market,” energy analyst Vandana Hari told Bloomberg. NB: Market reactions are blowing this way out  of proportion.
 The price rise could have been more substantial, perhaps, had it not been for the latest EIA weekly petroleum status report, which showed builds in both crude oil and fuels.

“We will be expecting a rebound in production as well as US refinery activity next week that will carry negative implications for both crude and key products,” Jim Ritterbusch from Ritterbusch and Associates told Reuters. In a note from earlier this week, ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote that the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian escalation on oil prices was muted by the news that Iran was ready to cap its enriched uranium stocks, which would reduce the risk of harsher U.S. sanctions that would threaten supply security. They also noted the return to normal operation at the Johan Sverdrup field in Norway after a short suspension due to a power outage. NN: PERFECT Let them go off half cocked. That way we can sell oil at even higher prices.