Author: BlackMask Financial

WTIbroke below $70 per barrel on Monday as Hurricane Rafael weakened to a storm that is unlikely to cause any damage to U.S. oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. Separately, oil benchmarks got depressed by trader pessimism about Chinese oil demand after the country’s ruling party announced its latest stimulus package, which underwhelmed, according to Reuters. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $73.30 per barrel while WTI had dropped to $69.69 per barrel. “The market will now shift focus to the Politburo meeting and Central Economic Work Conference in December, where we expect more pro-consumption countercyclical measures to be announced,” ANZ analysts wrote about China. Beijing on Friday announced additional stimulus measures that focused on the real estate sector and consumer demand for goods. Apparently, this was not good enough for oil analysts. “The crude market has hit a fair value and feels incredibly comfortable at the $70 level,” Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group, told Bloomberg. “Granted, we have US election risk that could impact growth expectations, but we’re not expecting that battle to bite and impact this week.” China, of course, remains in the focus of traders’ attention as the second-biggest consumer of the commodity and top importer. Just last week, Vitol’s head of research noted that this focus will remain in place as China continues to drive growth in oil demand thanks to petrochemicals. These, Giovanni Serio said, will replace transport as the main source of demand growth in the coming years. NN:  This rout has nothing to do with China. Its all about “Drill Baby Drill”  and the back log of permits Biden and his merry band of tree huggers have been stone walling. Its a gusher.

 

“The growth just next year is entirely capable of satisfying the total demand globally for plastics,” Serio said at the FT Asia Commodities conference, as quoted by Reuters. “There is no doubt that this is going to be the driving force of oil demand in China and globally because it is less of a decarbonisation story in that space,” he added.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisted on Saturday that his country did not orchestrate an assassination attempt on former and incoming United States President Donald Trump. “Now, with another election, a new scenario is fabricated with the same goal: as a killer does not exist in reality, scriptwriters are brought in to manufacture a third-rate comedy. Who can in their right mind believe that a supposed assassin SITS IN IRAN and talks online to the FBI [Federal Bureau of Investigation]?!” the diplomat tweeted. He insisted that Tehran respects the US citizens’ electoral choice and is open to dialogue, stressing that “Iran is NOT after nuclear weapons, period.” Earlier this week, the FBI was reported to have charged Farjad Shakeri with receiving instructions from Iran to try to assassinate Trump in an attempt that did not come to materialize. Later, the Iranian Foreign Ministry rejected the claims, describing them as a “malicious conspiracy orchestrated by Zionist and anti-Iranian circles.”

nn audio file: kill or be killed

Donald Trump has won Arizona, securing all seven swing states in the 2024 election and flipping the state back to the Republican side, CBC News and CNN projected late Saturday. This result concludes the count with Trump securing 312 Electoral College votes, while Kamala Harris finishes with 226. With Arizona’s 11 votes, Trump’s victory represents a significant shift in a state that had leaned Democratic in recent years, with many statewide offices held by Democrats. Trump’s campaign in Arizona focused on border security and immigration, pledging mass deportations and advocating for 10,000 new border agents. Arizona is the sixth state in which Trump has reversed Biden’s Electoral College victory in 2020. The other states that Biden won and that Trump triumphed in this year are Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina. NN: Need a place to live? Pick a blue one.

US warplanes launched targeted strikes against advanced weapons storage sites controlled by Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen on Saturday night, the Pentagon confirmed. Officials emphasized that the strikes were precise and intended to minimize risk to nearby areas, though further details on the extent of damage remain undisclosed.

Hezbollah launches rocket barrage at northern Israel

Donald Trump plans to renew the so-called ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran, to further isolate Tehran and hamper its ability to support its proxies in the Middle East, The Wall Street Journal reported, quoting sources briefed on the president-elect’s early plans During his first term in office, Trump tore up the so-called Iran nuclear agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and re-imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil industry and exports. President Joe Biden and his Administration, while keeping all sanctions on Iran in place, haven’t monitored strictly the compliance of the sanctions as they were keen to keep oil flowing amidst crises elsewhere such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Now Trump could have a personal issue with Iran and is likely to seek a maximum pressure policy, which could stifle Iranian oil exports that had just hit a six-year high earlier this year. Trump now knows that a man with ties with Iran plotted to assassinate him earlier this year, in retaliation for the U.S. drone strike in 2020 which killed Iranian military general and hardliner Qassem Soleimani. Commenting on Trump’s policy in the second term, A major drop in Iranian oil exports, if the U.S. ratchets up the sanctions, could lead to higher oil prices, other things being equal, analysts say. NB: Bullshit!! the Saudis will rush in a New York minute  to fill in the gap!!

Mick Mulroy, a top Pentagon official for the Middle East during Trump’s first-term administration, told the Journal, “If he’s going to be hawkish on any particular country, designated major adversaries, it’s Iran.”

Its personal…. see next story

FBI foils Iranian murder-for-hire plot against Trump

NN +  audio file: it’s Time to Kill the right PIG.  Trump is capable of anything. Ask former friend Epstein. Who said he was scared to death of Trump before his “suicide”  while he was in Federal custody during Trumps first term in office.

audio file Kill or Be Kilned

 

Mr Trump swept to victory in Tuesday’s presidential race that Democrats cast as a referendum on abortion rights and protections for women. Some women are now threatening to punish men for voting for Trump, taking inspiration from a Korean feminist movement that vows to withhold sex from men in order to redefine the gender power balance. Interest in the “4B movement” spiked since Kamala Harris’s defeat, with women sharing videos of themselves on social media pledging to commit to its four “no’s” — no sex, no dating or marriage and no having children with men — for the next four years. In one video shared on TikTok, a young woman pledges to go celibate and encourages others to delete dating apps in order to “exercise sovereignty” over their bodies. “As a woman, my bodily autonomy matters and this is my way to exercise sovereignty over that,” she says. “So I highly encourage any other women who are single and still care about progressing women’s rights and still fighting for our bodily autonomy to do the same. Delete your dating apps.” The woman also encourages others to seek out their female friends for comfort “if you need somebody to cuddle” and describes the 4B movement, which originated in South Korea, as a “point of inspiration”. The US election revealed a gender divide in the electorate, with 55 per cent of men turning out for Mr Trump and 53 per cent of women voting for Ms Harris. The president-elect touted his role in overturning Roe v Wade, a ruling that ended the nationwide right to abortion, throughout his election campaign and has been repeatedly accused of making offensive comments about women. In response, some have blamed sexism for America’s decision to return Mr Trump to the White House. “Men will always be against women,” read the caption in one TikTok video of a young woman crying in a car, encouraging women to join the 4B movement. “Women are just as capable to be presidents as a man.” In another video, a woman says that “for the next four years I am going to abstain from sex with men” A separate video was captioned: “I think it’s time for American women to participate in our own 4B movement.” Many of the videos addressed concerns over abortion, which was on the ballot in 10 states and was central to the Harris campaign. “If men won’t respect our bodies, they don’t get access to our bodies,” one woman said. “All I have to say is, good luck getting laid. Especially in Florida, because me and my girlies are participating in the 4B movement.” In a further video, one woman said: “I personally think if all these men are voting to take our rights away, they don’t deserve to touch a woman for the next four years. So, hope you thought that through you guys.” 

nn VIDEO note:

no sex liberal  revenge

Crude oil prices were under pressure this morning after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an inventory build of 2.1 million barrels for the week to November 1. This compared with a modest inventory draw of half a million barrels for the previous week and a crude oil inventory build for the week to November 1 as estimated by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday. The API also reported estimated fuel inventory draws for the week to November 1, and the EIA reported builds in gasoline and middle distillates. In gasoline, the authority estimated an inventory increase of 400,000 barrels for last week, with production averaging 9.7 million barrels daily. This compared with an inventory draw of 2.7 million barrels for the previous week, when production averaged 9.7 million barrels daily as welly. In middle distillates, the EIA reported an inventory build of 2.9 million barrels for the week to November 1, with production at 5.1 million barrels daily. These figures compared with an inventory drop of 1 million barrels for the previous week, when production averaged 4.9 million barrels daily. The EIA also said imports last week stood at 6.2 million barrels daily, while refinery run rates averaged 16.3 million barrels daily. The numbers compared with an import rate of 6 million barrels daily for the previous week and a refinery run rate of an average 16.1 million barrels daily.

 

Oil prices were depressed, meanwhile, pushed lower by the API’s inventory report and early voting results from the U.S. election that suggested the Republicans were gaining ground. The data pushed the U.S. dollar higher, affecting oil prices negatively.

Geopolitical concerns also played a part, but in the opposite direction. With Donald Trump winning the presidency, tensions between the United States and Iran are almost certain to intensify, potentially jeopardizing oil supply from the Middle East.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilpri

Tropical storm Rafael has strengthened to hurricane intensity in recent hours and is still set to continue its path toward the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, where oil and gas producers have shut-in production at platforms and evacuated personnel to shore. The late-season hurricane could threaten about 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, according to modeling data by energy analytics provider Earth Science Associates. The current projected path of the hurricane could pass through the Gulf of Mexico on a trajectory that could affect between 3.1 million bpd and 4.9 million bpd in production, the modeling showed on Tuesday. Also on Tuesday, oil companies started to evacuate personnel ahead of Rafael’s passing through the Gulf of Mexico. BP started shuffling personnel off platforms like Argos, Thunder Horse, and Mad Dog. Chevron, too, followed suit, relocating folks from platforms including Big Foot and Petronius. Chevron said that it is shutting in production at its operated Gulf of Mexico facilities and is transporting all associated personnel to shore. Shell has said that as a precautionary measure at its Appomattox, Vito, Ursa, Mars, Auger, and Enchilada/Salsa assets, it had begun moving non-essential personnel to shore, and has safely paused some drilling operations. So far this season, the U.S. energy industry has suffered the worst disruption from Hurricane Francine, which shut in about 42% of oil production and 52% of natural gas production in the Gulf. The energy analytics firm’s models suggest Rafael could become the second most disruptive storm for the year if the strength projections turn out to be right. Rafael would be the 17^th named storm this Atlantic hurricane season and the tenth one since September 24. Earlier in the year, the Energy Information Administration predicted up to 25 named storms for the season, warning that would wreak more havoc on the American oil and gas industry than ever before.

 

President-elect Donald Trump said “God spared [his] life for a reason” during his victory speech at Trump Headquarters early Wednesday morning. Trump, who has been the target of two assassination attempts since July, shared his appreciation for a second presidency during his 25-minute speech from West Palm Beach, Florida.

He continued: “The task before us will not be easy, but I will bring every ounce of energy, spirit, and fighting that I have in my soul to the job that you’ve entrusted to me.”