Israel is considering targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities as a retaliatory measure to Saturday’s missile and drone attacks, Sky News reported on Wednesday, citing the former director of intelligence at the Israeli spy agency, Mossad, Zohar Palti. “No doubt. Everything is on the table right now,” Palti pointed out. In response to security concerns, Iran temporarily shut down its nuclear facilities on Sunday. Before the attack carried out by Iran, the London-based Elaph News reported that Israel had been conducting air force drills specifically aimed at preparing for potential strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and other vital infrastructure in the event of an attack.NN;
Can Netanyahu avoid triggering a regional war?
CNN —
Israel, aided by its allies, dodged a bullet Sunday. To be more precise, 60 tons of explosives aboard more than 350 Iranian projectiles, some bigger than a family car, failed to dodge Israel’s defenses. Yet Israel, in defiance of US President Joe Biden’s warnings to “take the win” and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s threat of a “severe, extensive and painful” response to any retaliation, is contemplating just that. Deterrence, shorthand for “meanest S.O.B. in the room,” Israel believes, is the cornerstone of its survival. Iran is stealing that brick. In a paradigm shift after decades of shadow proxy war, Tehran is usurping Israel’s strategy. “We have decided to create a new equation,” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami said. “We will retaliate against them [Israel].” When faced with existential threats in the past, Israel has executed the most audacious raids the region has ever witnessed. Cloaked in extreme secrecy in 1981, they bombed Iraq’s nuclear reactor at Osirak before it went on line. Similarly, in 2007, they bombed Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad’s nuclear reactor before it could be built. Both attacks partnered intelligence with conventional military assets. It was 11 years before Israel admitted to the Syria strike. The point being, Israel won’t telegraph its plans as Iran did at the weekend, in carrying out an unprecedented attack in response to a suspected Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, earlier this month. Aside from the core members of Israel’s war cabinet – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Netanyahu’s former biggest political rival Benny Gantz – more than a dozen other people have sat at the table deep inside the Kirya, Israel’s maximum security defense headquarters in Tel Aviv, thrashing out their next move. Notably, Mossad Chief David Barnea and Army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi are among several security and intelligence officials who have been brought in. Outside the room, Netanyahu faces huge pressure from his hard right governing coalition. Bezalel Smotrich is demanding he “restore deterrence,” and popular Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir is calling on the prime minister to “go crazy.” Outside Israel, where allies are condemning Iran’s attack but urging restraint and some are also bitter about Netanyahu’s deadly treatment of Gaza’s Palestinians since Hamas’s brutal October 7 attack, calls for fresh sanctions on Tehran are growing. War cabinet members Gantz and Gallant are both seized of the diplomatic opportunity – Gantz saying, “we will build a regional coalition to exact a price from Iran”, while Gallant, according to a government press release, “highlighted the opportunity to establish an international coalition and strategic alliance to counter the threat posed by Iran.” The defense minister has hinted heavily that Iran’s nuclear facilities are in his sights, saying it is “a state that threatens to place nuclear warheads on its missiles.” Netanyahu, meanwhile, said in a statement on the X account of his office, “The international community must continue to stand united in resisting this Iranian aggression, which threatens world peace.” Netanyahu’s next move will likely try to lock in sanctions, and strike before negative Gaza headlines dump the international good will filling his sails. The clock is ticking. He needs two things, time to prepare a significant surprise strike, and time to coalesce international diplomacy. As both march to different beats, his legendary political acumen faces one of its stiffest tests yet. Recent evidence suggests his finger no longer feels the regional pulse as it once did. Earlier this year, following Israel’s precise, targeted assassination of Saleh Al-Arouri, Hamas’s Lebanese chief, in a second-floor Beirut apartment, the former fighter pilot and former head of the IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate Amos Yadlin told me Israel was acting inside “red lines” to avoid escalation. “The threshold is quite flexible,” Yadlin explained. “Deterrence is a decision at the head of a leader that can give a command to pull the trigger to launch a missile to start a war.” Yadlin knows a thing or two about deterrence and Israel’s past strikes against the nation’s existential threats. He was the fighter pilot who dropped the bomb that destroyed Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981, and in 2007 was the intelligence chief who planned the sophisticated audacious strike destroying Bashar al-Assad’s nuclear plant. Last weekend, Iran’s leaders decided Netanyahu’s calculation to kill Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the IRGC’s commander running their proxies threatening Israel from Syria and Lebanon, in their Damascus consulate on April 1 had crossed a red line. Netanyahu’s calculation was wrong. “I think the Iranians will be very, very careful, even if after a provocation is they will suffer a loss, but starting a war with the US or even with Israel. They are not there yet. The damage that can be inflicted on Iran is huge, is huge.” So the most important question right now must be, can Netanyahu read the room right – with Iran threatening to attack, allies warning him not to – and avoid triggering a regional war. And the answer to that is buried in Yadlin’s remarkable insights. Iran, he implied, won’t attack Israel as long as it fears America’s reaction. Netanyahu has so strained relations with the Biden administration over Gaza, Israel’s enemies smell blood. Since the US abstained at a UN Security Council vote last month to call for ceasefire in Gaza, Hamas has taken an intransigent turn to hostage negotiations.Netanyahu is famed as a political survivor. But now he faces the biggest gamble of his career. He is betting the blood of his nation over Iran’s read of his rift with America.
Rising Middle East Risk Sparks Fear of $100 Oil
- Uncertainty over a potential Israeli retaliation keeps oil markets on edge.
- In case of further escalation, $100 oil is possible, analysts say, especially if this involves direct threats to oil supply.
- Lipow Oil Associates: The worst-case scenario for oil supply is Iran attempting to disrupt tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend, oil prices dropped on Monday as an Iranian response to the Israeli hit on the Iranian diplomatic mission in Syria was largely expected and priced in. The well-telegraphed-in-advance Iranian drone attack against Israel may have been peak escalation, for now, analysts and investment banks say. However, uncertainty over a potential Israeli retaliation and whether restraint will prevail continue to keep the oil market on edge. Risk premiums and fear will continue to be priced in Brent Crude for the foreseeable future. Uncertainty and risks have grown in the Middle East – a key oil-producing region, which is also home to the world’s most crucial oil chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz. About 21 million barrels per day (bpd), or a fifth of the world’s daily consumption, is being transported out of the top Middle Eastern exporters via the Strait of Hormuz. In case of further escalation, $100 oil is possible, analysts say, especially if this involves direct threats to oil supply. “What is not priced into the current market, in our view, is a potential continuation of a direct conflict between Iran and Israel, which we estimate could see oil prices trade up to +$100/bbl, depending on the nature of the events,” Citigroup in a note, as carried by Bloomberg. The worst-case scenario for oil supply is Iran attempting to disrupt tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which could send oil prices spiking to $130 per barrel, according to Lipow Oil Associates. “Any attack on oil production or export facilities in Iran would drive the price of Brent crude oil to $100, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to prices in the $120 to $130 range,” Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told CNBC. An escalation involving the U.S. could send oil surging to $140 per barrel, according to Societe Generale, which has raised its Brent price forecast by $10 a barrel to reflect continued geopolitical risk premium. While warning that oil prices could spike well above $100 per barrel in case of a major escalation, investment banks do not consider such escalation the base-case scenario. While Israel is weighing its response to the Iranian attack, the G7 has called for restraint and the U.S. has signaled it wouldn’t be part of any Israel offensive against Iran. U.S. President Joe Biden has assured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. commitment to defend Israel is “ironclad,” but the U.S. would not participate in an offensive against Iran, a senior administration official has told NBC News. As of early Tuesday, Israel was still weighing its options. Iran has signaled that with the drone barrage against Israel it considers the matter closed, the permanent mission of Iran to the United Nations said on Sunday, but added that “should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!” In view of calls on Israel for restraint, the “most likely path from here (to be) de-escalation rather than further escalation,” Richard Bronze, co-founder and analyst at Energy Aspects, told CNN. “While Israel’s allies are pushing for a diplomatic response, it appears for now that Israel is considering a more direct response. If this is the case, it unfortunately means that this uncertainty and tension will linger for quite some time, as markets will then focus on how Iran further retaliates,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a Tuesday note. “Iranian oil output is most at risk and even a strong diplomatic response from Israel’s allies could hit Iranian oil exports significantly with stricter enforcement of oil sanctions,” say the strategists, who see up to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil off the market in such case. Morningstar sees “more downside risks than upside at the moment,” Stephen Ellis, an energy and utilities strategist for Morningstar, wrote on Monday. “[T]he ample public and private forewarning from Iran amid rising regional tensions means the attack was already reflected in oil prices via a higher geopolitical risk premium.” Most of the recent rise to $91 oil before the Iranian attack has been the result of geopolitical risks rather than supply risks, according to Morningstar, which notes that the OPEC+ group has ample spare capacity of about 5 million bpd – and probably more – part of which it can return to the market if oil prices surge above $100. “We expect more downside risks than upside at the moment, and see a higher potential to touch $75 by the end of 2024 versus a sustained movement beyond $100 a barrel,” Morningstar’s Ellis said. Iran’s retaliation can now prompt profit taking and prices could be easing, but this is not the end of risk premiums, consultancy FGE said in a note on Monday. Despite pressure from allies on Israel to limit a possible response, further escalation is not entirely off the cards, but FGE says that “Our base case is that the worst has passed.” FGE’s base case is now for OPEC+ to decide to unwind some of the production cuts as of July. Even with another up to 1 million bpd from OPEC+ output back on the market, Brent is still expected to average $90-$95 a barrel in the third quarter with the ongoing political risk, the consultancy said.
Israel reportedly finalizes plans for counter-strike against Iran
The Israeli military is said to have finalized its strategy for the response to the weekend attack by Iranian forces, people familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday. Sources indicate that while the specific timing of the retaliatory action against Iran and its proxies remains undecided, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have agreed on the nature of the response they intend to deliver.Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Daniel Hagari previously stated Iran would not “get off scot-free” following the drone and missile attack its military launched on April 13.
Can Iran defend its nuclear assets from Israel’s firepower?
Tehran is tense, two days after Iran’s unprecedented direct attack on Israel.
Worried about war and its impact on Iran’s already flailing economy, a significant proportion of Iranians oppose what they see as the reckless adventurism of the country’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which fired more than 300 drones and missiles on Saturday night. In a letter sent to BBC Persian, a long list of Iranian activists both inside the country and abroad criticised the IRGC’s actions and saying “No to warmongering!” Many Iranians also see the Iran-Israel confrontation now emerging from the shadows as being orchestrated by the Iranian government rather than reflective of the will of the Iranian people.
This perception is underscored by a heavy police presence on the streets of Tehran – ostensibly about enforcing strict Islamic dress codes requiring women to cover their hair but which many suspect is mainly about crushing any possible protests. Some decision-makers fear that if Iranian security forces and the IRGC’s command centres are hit in a war with Israel and the US, this could reignite nationwide protests that erupted in 2022 after the death of a young woman in police custody. Some graffiti has appeared on walls in Iranian cities – “Israel, strike the supreme leader’s [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s] house,” reads one. “Israel hit them, they lack the courage to retaliate,” read another. The government has its own billboards – “Tel Aviv is our battleground, not Tehran,” reads one. Immediately after the IRGC attack, supporters of the Islamic Republic celebrated and a banner warning Israelis that “the next slap will be fiercer” was hung from a building in Tehran. “I believe it was the right decision to attack Israel to prevent further killings of Iranian commanders in Syria and elsewhere,” one woman said in a voice message sent to BBC Persian. But another said: “Iranians themselves are in a state of war with the current regime. We harbour no animosity towards any nation, including Israel.” Meanwhile a woman said she was concerned about a wider war. Such fears appeared to prompt people to scramble to stock up on essentials like food and fuel, with pictures showing queues forming outside petrol stations in Tehran and supermarkets inundated with shoppers.
With the official inflation rate standing at just over 40% and tens of millions of people struggling with the cost of living, a military confrontation with Israel was the last thing most Iranians wanted. The value of the Iranian rial fell against the US dollar after the IRGC attack, as it had already done after Israel’s earlier attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria. Many worry that, sooner or later, the military escalations will hike the prices of many goods, from mobile phones to home appliances and many foodstuffs. The Iranian government sets the price of some essential items such as bread and fuel, and lets many items be imported on a preferential exchange rate (in other words cheap foreign currency). But still the price of many goods follow the open market exchange rate. Iran’s economy has been struggling since the US left an international deal to limit Iran’s nuclear activities in 2018 and re-imposed crippling sanctions, particularly curbing Iran’s ability to export crude oil. On Tuesday, Iranian newspapers were focusing on international pressure on Israel to show restraint but also attempting to allay any economic concerns. Iran’s press – which reflects a range of political viewpoints, albeit within unwritten rules – has been largely supportive of the IRGC action.
Israel reportedly finalizes plans for counter-strike against Iran
The Israeli military is said to have finalized its strategy for the response to the weekend attack by Iranian forces, people familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday. Sources indicate that while the specific timing of the retaliatory action against Iran and its proxies remains undecided, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have agreed on the nature of the response they intend to deliver .Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Daniel Hagari previously stated Iran would not “get off scot-free” following the drone and missile attack its military launched on April 13.
Israel warns Iran won’t get off ‘scot-free’ after missile attack
Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Daniel Hagari underlined on Tuesday that Iran’s drone and missile attack over the weekend will not go unpunished, vowing that Israel would respond to the strikes. “We cannot stand still from this kind of aggression, Iran will not get [off] scot-free with this aggression,” Daniel Hagari told reporters at Julis military base. “We will respond in our time, in our place, in the way that we will choose,” he added. Earlier today, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi reassured his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that Tehran is “not interested” in further escalating the tensions in the Middle East.
Iran’s Attack on Israel Sparks Global Concerns of Escalation
- Iran launched over 300 missiles and drones at Israel, leading to fears of a broader Middle East conflict.
- Israel’s war cabinet deliberates on the appropriate response, with differing opinions within the government.
- Global leaders stress the importance of de-escalation and diplomacy to prevent further conflict escalation.
Leading diplomats and politicians across the globe, fearing another major escalation of fighting in the Middle East, urged restraint as the world waited for Israel’s response after it endured an unprecedented air attack by Iran over the weekend. Tehran fired more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel late on April 13, almost all of which were shot down by Israeli defense systems, along with intercepts by forces from the United States, France, Britain, and Jordan. Only a few missiles reached Israeli territory, causing modest damage to an air base and critically wounding a 7-year-old girl. Israel and Iran have been bitter enemies for decades, but this was the first direct attack by one on the other’s soil instead of through proxy forces or by targeting each other’s assets operating in third countries. The Israeli war cabinet was set to meet on April 15, with some hard-liners within the right-wing government said to be advocating a harsh response, while others were pushing for a more moderate decision. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised victory, while an influential member of the war cabinet said the country will retaliate in the “fashion and time” of its choosing.”We’re on the edge of the cliff and we have to move away from it,” European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who said he spoke with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian late on April 14, told Spanish radio station Onda Cero. “We have to step on the brakes and reverse gear.” Added British Foreign Secretary David Cameron in an interview on April 15 with the BBC: “I think they’re perfectly justified to think they should respond because they have been attacked, but we are urging them as friends to think with head as well as heart, to be smart as well as tough.” Iran, which said it was responding to a suspected Israeli air strike on the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus early last month that killed two brigadier generals, called on Western nations to “appreciate” the restraint it showed since the embassy attack and warned it will act more “resolutely” if “Israel crosses red lines.” The United States reiterated its “ironclad commitment” to the security of Israel but reportedly told the Jewish state it will not take part in any retaliatory action. Speaking late on April 14 at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for “maximum restraint” amid fears that Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel could turn into a larger regional war. “The Middle East is on the brink…. Now is the time to defuse and de-escalate,” Guterres said. After the meeting ended without any resolution, U.S. Deputy Ambassador to the UN Robert Wood said “there has to be a Security Council response to what happened.” The Iranian launch came amid heightened tensions between Iran and the West over the continuing war in the Gaza Strip and a deadly air strike on April 1 believed to have been carried out by Israel on the Iranian Consulate in Syria. U.S. officials said Washington had been indirect contact with Iran through Swiss intermediaries before and after the attack, without providing details, but Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani cautioned on April 15 that no pre-arranged deal was made with any country regarding how Tehran would approach its military response to Israel. Israel’s retaliatory war in Gaza was sparked by a raid on Israeli territory carried out by Hamas, which rules Gaza and is designated as a terrorist group by the United States and European Union, on October 7. The raid left 1,200 people dead and hundreds of people were taken hostage. The ensuing Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip aimed at destroying Hamas has killed more than 33,000 Palestinians, according to the Palestinian territory’s Hamas-run Health Ministry. Since the war in Gaza began, Tehran has openly supported militant groups and proxies targeting Israel that are part of Iran’s “axis of resistance” against Israel and the West, leading to concerns of a broader Middle East conflict involving archenemies Iran and Israel. While Russia, seen as close to Tehran, has stopped short of publicly criticizing Iran for the attack on Israel, the Kremlin on April 15 said “further escalation is in no one’s interests” and called for finding a solution through “political and diplomatic methods.”
Iran vows to respond ‘within seconds’ if Israel attacks…….. Iran warns against support for Israel, vows strong response…… Netanyahu: Iran ‘threatens world peace’
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani stressed on Monday that Tehran would not wait to respond to Israel’s potential attack, vowing that its response would occur “within less than a few seconds.” On April 13, the Iranian military launched an aerial attack on Israel, in what it described to be a military operation in retaliation for Israel’s deadly attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria’s capital city of Damascus earlier this month. The Pentagon previously refused to reveal any information about Israel’s potential response to the Iranian rocket barrage. Israeli media reported that Israel does not plan to engage in an “all-out war” with Iran following the latest developments.
Iran warns against support for Israel, vows strong response
Iran’s Armed Forces Spokesman Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi issued a warning to Western leaders, urging them to cease their support for Israel, which he referred to as a “moribund regime” engaged in terrorism. Shekarchi emphasized Iran’s stance against war expansion but vowed to respond to any aggression, asserting that Iran “will cut off any hand that attacks our country.” “Any aggression from ‘Israel’ or its supporters will be met with a stronger response than before,” the spokesman said.
Netanyahu: Iran ‘threatens world peace’
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday stated that Iran “threatens world peace” and urged the international community to “stand united” against Iranian aggression,” the Prime Minister’s Office said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. The prime minister also thanked the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and other allies for their help in thwarting the Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel launched on Saturday night. Furthermore, Netanyahu said that US House of Representatives Majority Leader Steve Scalise expressed his support for Israel in a phone call, and informed the prime minister “of his initiative to advance in Congress, in the coming days, a series of measures against Iran and for Israel.”
Israel reportedly to hit back ‘clearly and foBiden wants to prevent larger Middle East conflictrcefully’…………
The Israeli war cabinet has decided to retaliate “clearly and forcefully” against the missile and drone attack carried out by Iran on Saturday, The Times of Israel reported on Monday citing the local broadcaster Channel 12. The report says Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi think that Israel should take action in response, but without harming the US-led coalition that played a crucial role in assisting Israel in defending itself against the Iranian attack. Israel intends to convey the message that it “will not allow an attack of that magnitude against it to pass without a reaction.” The response will be coordinated with the United States, the media added
Biden wants to prevent larger Middle East conflict
United States President Joe Biden on Monday expressed Washington’s willingness to prevent the further widening of the conflict in the Middle East, underlining the country’s commitment to protect the interests of the United States and its allies in the region, including Iraq. During the meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani at the White House, the US president stated that Washington is determined to secure a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel that would “bring hostages home.” Biden highlighted that the United States and Iraq are working to jointly defeat ISIS. The Iraqi prime minister stated that the ties between Washington and Baghdad stand at an “important juncture,” with Iraq striving to shift from a military relationship to a comprehensive partnership with the United States.
Iran’s Attack on Israel Sparks Race to Avert a Full-Blown War
US officials and their allies are focusing efforts now on ensuring any retaliation from Israel doesn’t raise the stakes too high.
The huge salvo of missiles and drones launched from the arid plains of Iran toward Israel was the kind of direct conflict between the Middle East powers that the world had long feared would mark the explosion of a full-blown regional war. But behind the unprecedented nature of the attack was a dance of diplomatic signaling that allowed both sides to claim success, raising the risk of a broader conflict without making it a certainty. The Israeli military said 99% of the barrage was shot down and no Israelis were killed after Iran had signaled for days it was coming. Tehran said it had made its point, seeking to put the march toward a wider conflagration on hold. Israel’s backers in the US and Europe were also pressing to avoid any further escalation in calls on Sunday. For all the steps toward the brink since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, the Jewish state and its enemies have managed to stop short of the precipice, even as violence has spread to other countries in the Middle East. What changed over the weekend is that the latest US-led diplomatic efforts — until now focused on deescalating the crisis in Gaza — are being targeted at ensuring any response from Israel is measured, according to people familiar with the discussions.
US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said while the attack was meant to be deadly and destructive, Washington is urging Israel against retaliation.
The concern, though, is that logic might not prevail, according to a person familiar with the discussions. Indeed, one wildcard is the pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from hardliners in his government, though the success in defeating the Iranian strike may strengthen his hand.The attack by Iran was “very calibrated” to limit the damage, said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East & North Africa Program at Chatham House. Still, she said, “we’re closer than ever to a broader regional war.” Iran’s latest assault was a dramatic escalation, with the hardline government striking directly for the first time after decades relying on proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah to fight a shadow war with its main regional rival. It showed with the massive barrage that it was ready to challenge Israel’s superior military head on, something no other power had dared to do for decades. The US moved ships and planes into position and vowed to help protect Israel. The UK and Jordan were also involved. Oil markets steadied on Monday after Israel repulsed the attack but the prospect of $100 for a barrel of oil is now looming again, while Bloomberg Economics predicts a direct war between Israel and Iran would thrust the world economy into recession. But Iran, seeking to avoid a spiraling conflict with Israel’s superior military, preceded the operation with days of public and private warnings. Its officials described its intent to retaliate to countries in the region, according to a person with knowledge of the briefings, a move which enabled this message to reach the US indirectly. American officials said there was no direct warning to the US. Though the damage was limited, Iranian officials touted the operation as a successful retaliation for an April 1 attack on a diplomatic compound in Damascus that killed several of Iran’s military commanders. Iran blamed that hit on Israel, whose government hasn’t taken responsibility. On Sunday, Israel was also celebrating having defeated the onslaught, able to demonstrate again the country’s military prowess in downing the missiles and protecting its citizens following criticism in the wake of the Hamas attack six months ago. For Netanyahu, there’s also a renewed demonstration of support from the US and its allies after months of escalating public criticism of Israel’s deadly military operation in Gaza, including from President Joe Biden. Congressional leaders are planning a long-delayed vote on additional aid for this week. US officials who had warned in the days before the attack that the situation was extremely dangerous were relieved the defenses had worked and damage hadn’t been worse. They called on Israel in public and in private to resist the desire to retaliate against Iran, or at least to keep whatever response there is limited enough to prevent raising the stakes further.
Israel made clear to the US on Sunday it’s not looking for a significant escalation with Iran, according to US officials. They’re looking to protect themselves and defend themselves, one official said. “Remember, these are two parties that have a very long history with one another,” said Michael Singh, a former top White House official who is now managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Neither would like to see this erupt into a full scale war. Does that mean a miscalculation can’t happen? Absolutely not.” Calls in Israel for another round of retaliation, this time directly against Iran, added to the fears. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir demanded a “crushing attack.” While Netanyahu didn’t endorse that appeal, Israel’s war is still far from over.
Many in Israel aren’t clamoring for a quick flex of the muscle, partly because Iran’s attack was so unsuccessful.
For the moment, the weekend attack seemed to signal that the deterrence that’s kept Iran from widening the war into a full-on battle with Israel still holds. Iran is trying to draw a “new line,” according to Dana Stroul, who until December was the Pentagon’s deputy assistant secretary for the Middle East.
“If Israel targets any of its officials abroad, even when those officials are engaged in terrorist activities, Iran will respond with attacks like we saw last night,” she said. Israeli leaders “will need to respond,” but in a way that will “prevent opening a new escalatory cycle that tips into full scale regional war,” she said.
Though potentially devastating, the assault appeared designed more to demonstrate resolve than to overcome Israel’s defenses, said one western diplomat.
Still, officials in the region said they expect some kind of response by Israel, given the unprecedented nature of Iran’s direct attack. Just how severe it is will show whether the march toward the brink of broader conflict is in fact on hold.
The lack of damage and casualties means that the Israelis could limit their strike, said Mark Cancian, a defense analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Maybe they will attack a military base that launched the missiles, maybe a production factory, maybe Iranian naval assets,” he said. “Everyone is watching to see what the Israelis will do.”