Author: BlackMask Financial

Hamas senior official: It is now in the hands of the Americans if they are serious about achieving a ceasefire before Ramadan

The United States must pressure Israel to reach a ceasefire and hostage deal agreement with Hamas, a senior official from the Gazan terror group told NBC on Tuesday. “It is now in the hands of the Americans if they are serious about achieving a ceasefire before Ramadan,” NBC quoted the official as saying in a voice note, “to exercise enough pressure on the Israelis.” Hamas negotiators will remain in Cairo for another day at the request of mediators, keeping ceasefire talks going after two days with no breakthrough, another official from Hamas said on Tuesday. The Cairo talks have been billed as a final hurdle to reach the first extended ceasefire in the war between Hamas and Israel- a 40-day truce during which Israeli hostages would be freed and aid pumped into Gaza – ahead of Ramadan, which is due to begin at the start of next week. “The delegation will remain in Cairo on Tuesday for more talks; they are expected to wrap up this round later today,” a Hamas official told Reuters. Egypt’s Qahera television also reported the talks had been extended for a third day but said they were “facing difficulties.” Earlier, senior Hamas official Bassem Naim told Reuters the terrorist group had presented its proposal for a ceasefire agreement to the mediators and was now waiting for a response from the Israelis, who have stayed away from this round. “(Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu doesn’t want to reach an agreement, and the ball is now in the Americans’ court” to press him for a deal, Naim said. A senior Israeli official asked about Naim’s comments that Israel was holding up the deal, said: “The claim is incorrect. Israel is making every effort to reach an agreement. We are awaiting a response from Hamas.”

Crude oil for front-month settlements fell by over 1% on Tuesday as targets set by China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, regarding its economic growth, failed to raise optimism among investors. Namely, Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced that the economic authorities set a gross domestic product growth target of approximately 5% for 2024. Additionally, the Asian country aims to bring its unemployment rate to 5.5%, while it plans to increase its military budget to 7.2%. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping remarked that the country will introduce extraordinary measures in order to “deepen reforms in all-round way.” West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for April contracts declined 1.42% to $77.67 a barrel at 8:31 am ET. Brent for May deliveries dropped by 1.27% to trade at $81.93 per barrel at the same time. NN: this shoots the demand part of the oil equation in the ass.

Egyptian source to Sky News: Despite difficulties in talks, reports on no Cairo breakthrough are false

The latest round of ceasefire talks have broken up without a breakthrough. Meanwhile, global internet cables have been cut in the Red Sea that provide data to Africa, Asia and the Middle East. Without a temporary truce over Ramadan, which begins 10 March, the conflict could get worse both in Gaza and on the West Bank, he said. “We could see Hamas fomenting some kind of uprising on the West Bank and that could be made worse by the far-right members of Netanyahu’s Israeli government talking about restricting access to Temple Mount”. Temple Mount, in Jerusalem, is host to Dome of the Rock and al Aqsa mosque, two Muslim holy sites, as well as being a sacred place for Jews, with the Western Wall located there. Hamas have called for Palestinian Muslims to ignore any restrictions and march on the mosque.  Israel have also threatened to begin a ground offensive in Rafah should Hamas not release all hostages by Ramadan. “The question now is whether the talks can be put back together over the coming days before the Ramadan holy month begins,” said Bunkall. He said we could be seeing “stalling tactics” that precede a breakthrough – or things may “go from bad to worse”.

Producers may need to stick with output curbs for the entire year, and the cooperation of all is far from guaranteed.

OPEC+ may have put a floor under crude prices by extending oil supply cuts for another quarter, but the group will soon face a more grueling test. Saudi Arabia and its partners agreed Sunday to keep roughly 2 million barrels of daily output offline until midyear, a move that should balance global markets and buoy futures above $80 a barrel. Bullish traders may even cheer that alliance member Russia has pledged to focus more on constricting production than exports. If Moscow follows through, that may help tighten inventories when oil demand climbs during summer in the Northern Hemisphere. Yet a tougher choice lies in store when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners hold their next ministerial meeting, scheduled for June 1 in Vienna.  If the coalition wants to prevent global markets from tipping back into surplus, it may need to persevere with output curbs for the entire year, projections from the International Energy Agency show. Other forecasters, such as Standard Chartered Plc, contend that demand will be strong enough for OPEC+ to relax the cuts and revive production. Saudi Arabia has shown it’s willing to keep a tight rein on supplies, but if cutbacks are prolonged further, the cooperation of fellow OPEC+ members is far from guaranteed. The producers have been restraining output — and sacrificing sales volumes — for most of the time since the group was founded in 2016. They must weigh up how much longer to keep oil in the ground when the energy transition is starting to erode demand growth. The United Arab Emirates is now sitting on about 1.5 million barrels a day of idle output, or about a third of its total, after investing substantially in new facilities. Abu Dhabi has always been eager to monetize its capacity, and has clashed before with Riyadh over the right to have it recognized. Then there’s Iraq, which is once again flouting its OPEC+ production quota while seeking revenues to rebuild its shattered economy. Baghdad has promised to do better, and will need to deliver for the group’s collective effort to succeed. “The need for unity and discipline must prevail,” brokerage PVM Oil Associates said. “OPEC+ will be sorely tested in 2024.” NN: what do you think will happen price of oil  When and if Mr drill baby  drill TRUMP  becomes president. And he  is a contender.

• OPEC and its allies extended output cuts to the end of June
• China unveils 5% GDP growth target this year at key meeting

Oil fluctuated between gains and losses as the economic outlook in the biggest importer China vied with OPEC+’s widely expected extension of output cuts. A slew of announcements from China’s National People’s Congress received only a lukewarm response from investors. Crude has been on a slow-motion ascent that has seen Brent gain around 7% this year, aided by strength in physical markets as chunks of global shipping avoid the Red Sea and OPEC+’s limiting of supply. That optimism has been tempered by strong production from outside of the cartel, a shaky demand outlook in China and the paring back of expectations for when central banks will start monetary easing. “OPEC+ must ensure that the measures agreed are implemented as strictly as possible so that the oil price remains above $80 per barrel even if the geopolitical risk premium recedes,” said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch. “An oversupply in the second quarter should now be avoided.  OPEC increased oil production last month as Libya restarted its biggest field, while other members faltered in the delivery of new cutbacks. The group’s output rose by 110,000 barrels a day to 26.68 million a day, according to a Bloomberg survey, as the North African nation ramped up the Sharara field, which was closed earlier in the year due to protests. the United Arab Emirates, continued to pump above a new quota set at the start of the year. However, an extension for a further three months was already expected.” China set its annual growth target at around 5%, raising expectations for officials to unleash more stimulus as they try to lift confidence in a slowing economy. The nation also set a more ambitious target for reducing the energy needed for economic expansion, or energy intensity, this year.

Oil prices shed over 1% on Monday despite rising tensions in the Red Sea and on the front lines of the Israel-Hamas conflict, with OPEC+ extending voluntary production cuts and demand sentiment taking a beating from an unusually mild winter. On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to extend its 2.2-million-barrel/day voluntary production cuts for another quarter, with this outcome already having been priced in ahead of time. Russia also said it would deepen cuts by over 470,000 bpd in the second quarter of this year, while also easing curbs on exports. Russia already has a 500,000-bpd cut quote for production and exports.  While this was a surprise move, it failed to move the oil price needle on Monday.  “With OPEC loadings appearing steady and aggregate OPEC supply potentially showing little effect from incremental voluntary cuts implemented in Q1, we do not view the extensions from the broader group as particularly impactful,” Macquarie energy strategist Walt Chancellor told Reuters on Monday. Some analysts saw this morning’s brief increase in oil prices as a response to the Israel-Hamas conflict and the current stalemated ceasefire negotiations. “The OPEC+ rollover was baked in, it’s the Gaza crisis that prices are responding to,” Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, told Bloomberg. “As long as the cease-fire negotiations remain in a stalemate, crude is likely to either hover around current levels or come under further upward pressure.” Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon told Reuters that OPEC+ cuts would result in 34.6 million bpd in output for Q2, down 1.4 million bpd from earlier forecasts. NN: Remember this. Its all about consumption. As it should be OPEC is worried. Mild winter, increased output especially from America and plunging demand. OPEC is not cutting production  because it  wants to….. It has to.. Problem it still needs to cut another million  BPD.

• Wharton Business School Professor Joao Gomes has said the debt mountain marks a ‘moment in history’ and it could ‘derail the next administration’
• Experts are currently predicting that the eye-watering debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 190 percent by 2050 if it remains on its current trajectory 

America’s $34 trillion debt will disrupt the global economy as early as next year if the next president pursues expensive policies, a finance expert has warned.  Wharton Business School Professor Joao Gomes has said the public debt mountain marks a ‘moment in history’ – and it could ‘derail the next administration’.’Toward the latter part of the decade we will have to deal with this,’ he told Fortune. ‘It could derail the next administration, frankly.  ‘If they come up with plans for large tax cuts or another big fiscal stimulus, the markets could rebel, interest rates could just spike right there and we would have a crisis in 2025. ‘It could very well happen. I’m very confident by the end of the decade one way or another, we will be there.’ Gomes warned he doesn’t think it will be considered a big issue by either the Republican or Democrat parties.

‘It’s a really obvious moment in history for us to say: “OK, what are our choices, what can we feasibly do, who has the better plan?”‘ he told Fortune.  ‘I suspect neither party is interested in that and it might all be pushed under the rug.’  Gomes is the Senior Vice Dean for Research, Centers and Academic Initiatives at Wharton Business School, part of the University of Pennsylvania.  US national debt reached a record high of $34 trillion at the end of 2023. Data published by the Treasury Department showed that outstanding federal borrowing soared to eye-watering figure on December 29. The staggering figure, which is a major point of contention between Republicans and Democrats, is equal to $101,233 in federal debt for every person in America, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. The ballooning deficit means the US government spends more than $1.8 billion a day on interest payments alone, the bipartisan group found, which it said threatens America’s economic future. Experts warn that a higher debt load could put upward pressure on inflation, keeping interest rates higher and pushing up the cost of household borrowing. It could also impact major programs including Social Security and Medicare.