Major United States stock markets closed in the red territory on Monday as Fitch Ratings cut the 2023 world growth outlook due to intensified rate hikes from central banks. Traders also observed the latest ISM service sector data, which recorded further growth in November, sending the euro down by 0.44% against the dollar at 3:59 pm ET to sell for $1.04853. The Dow Jones plummeted 1.40% at the closing bell, shedding almost 500 points, as Salesforce sank 7.35% after announcing that Slack’s CEO will be leaving the company. The Nasdaq 100 plunged by 1.73%, with Tesla dropping 6.37% after denying plans to cut production in China. The S&P 500 decreased by 1.79%, as VF Corp. saw a sell-off of over 11.30% after downgrading its earnings prospects. The data came on the heels of a survey last week that showed stronger-than-expected job and wage growth in November, challenging hopes that the Fed might slow the pace and intensity of its rate hikes amid recent signs of ebbing inflation. “Today is a bit of a response to Friday, because that jobs report, showing the economy was not slowing down that much, was contrary to the message which (Chair Jerome) Powell had delivered on Wednesday afternoon,” said Bernard Drury, CEO of Drury Capital, referencing comments made by the head of the Federal Reserve saying it was time to slow the pace of coming interest rate hikes. “We’re back to inflation-fighting mode,” Drury added. Investors see an 89% chance that the U.S. central bank will increase interest rates by 50 basis points next week to 4.25%-4.50%, with the rates peaking at 4.984% in May 2023. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets on Dec. 13-14, the final meeting in a volatile year, which saw the central bank attempt to arrest a multi-decade rise in inflation with record interest rate hikes. The aggressive policy tightening has also triggered worries of an economic downturn, with JPMorgan, Citigroup and BlackRock among those that believe a recession is likely in 2023. In other economic data this week, investors will also monitor weekly jobless claims, producer prices and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey for more clues on the health of the U.S. economy. NN: I got PPI this week and CPI next week a day before the FED meets. These reports will help me get a bead of weather or not we get the Santa Clause rally and how big it could be.
At its meeting on Sunday, the OPEC+ group decided to leave its production quotas unchanged…….. China To Cut Gasoline and Diesel Retail Prices Amid Weaker Demand
- Saudi OSPs to Asia hit 10-month low amid slowing physical demand.
- Saudi Aramco cut on Monday the price of its flagship Arab Light crude for sale in January in Asia by $2.20 per barrel, to a premium of $3.25 a barrel.
- The Saudi oil giant also cut by $1.80 per barrel the price of Arab Light to northwest Europe.
Saudi Arabia has cut the price of the crude it will sell to Asia in January to a 10-month low versus the regional benchmarks which have weakened in recent weeks amid signs of lackluster demand in the world’s most important oil-importing market. Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil giant, cut on Monday the price of its flagship Arab Light crude for sale in January in Asia by $2.20 per barrel, to a premium of $3.25 a barrel to the regional Oman/Dubai benchmark, off which Middle Eastern term supply to Asia is priced. The cut, to the lowest premium over Oman/Dubai in 10 months, was largely in line with a Reuters survey of refiners and traders in Asia from last week. The Saudi oil giant also cut by $1.80 per barrel the price of Arab Light to northwest Europe, which will be selling in January at a $0.10 discount to ICE Brent. The price to the U.S. remained unchanged. The Saudi cut to prices signals uneasiness about the prospects of oil demand in the key importing region, Asia, where the lockdowns in China have been weighing on market sentiment. Moreover, recent market structures of the key benchmarks have flashed signs of weak demand and sufficient supply, despite the EU embargo on imports of Russian crude oil, which came into effect on Monday. Saudi Aramco, which releases official selling prices (OSPs) for the following month around the fifth of each month, also typically releases the prices after the monthly OPEC+ meeting. At the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, the alliance decided not to change the production quotas for its members. OPEC+ had agreed in October to cut the collective oil production target by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) beginning in November. The actual cut would be around 1 million bpd, of which Saudi Arabia, which has been trying to produce to quota, will reduce 526,000 bpd of output as of November and will have a target of 10.478 million bpd until OPEC+ decides otherwise. NN: I guess they have not heard the BULLSHIT that China is opening up ending COVID lockdowns…..
China To Cut Gasoline and Diesel Retail Prices Amid Weaker Demand
Chinese news agency, Xinhua, has reported that China’s National Development and Reform Commission will cut gasoline and diesel prices by 440 yuan (about $62.51) per tonne and 425 yuan per tonne, respectively starting Tuesday. Beijing has also directed the country’s three biggest oil companies, namely the China National Petroleum Corporation, the China National Offshore Oil Corporation and the China Petrochemical Corporation to maintain oil production and facilitate transportation to ensure stable supplies. This marks the second consecutive reduction in gasoline and diesel prices since 21st November, a move that will lower the cost for daily and logistics transportation. China’s current pricing mechanism adjusts the prices of refined oil products such as gasoline and diesel if international crude oil prices change by more than 50 yuan per tonne and remain at that level for 10 working days. Brent prices have tumbled 11.3% over the past 30 days (~76.84 yuan per barrel) but have fallen less than 1% since the last cut on November 21, suggesting that China could be buying Russian Urals at big discounts. According to Bloomberg’s oil strategist Julian Lee, Russia’s flagship Urals crude oil traded at a massive discount of $33.28, or about 40% to the international Brent crude oil, at the end of last week, with India and China its biggest buyers. In contrast, a year ago, Urals traded at a much smaller discount of $2.85 to Brent. Urals is the main blend exported by Russia. The result: Moscow is beginning to feel the heat of its war in Ukraine, and could be losing ~$4 billion a month in energy revenues as per Bloomberg’s calculations. Falling fuel prices in China could also signal weakening demand and could eventually hit global oil prices. Experts have warned that China’s zero-Covid policy has been taking a toll on fuel consumption and could remain that way for months. With new Covid restrictions released last month, China’s crude consumption is estimated to fall by 200,000–300,000 b/d in the coming months, though Sunday saw some lockdown curbs walked back due to pressure from protesters. NN: It ain’t over! In fact things will get a lot worse until they get worse. China’s oil consumption will continue to drop. Besides COVID about to run wild their is another issue. Over million barrels of China’s oil consumption that is not consume in China. Its Russian paper barrels that are smuggled into Europe. And it crude that is converted into Distillates that disguise their Russian origin that are turned into distillates that end up in Europe and the USA.
OPEC+ Leaves Production Quotas Unchanged
- At its meeting on Sunday, the OPEC+ group decided to leave its production quotas unchanged.
- The group also announced that its next meeting will be in February and the one after that in June, marking the end of monthly meetings.
- With the EU embargo on Russian crude and the G7 price cap coming into effect, OPEC+ likely did not want to add to uncertainty in oil markets.
OPEC+ decided not to change the production quotas for its members at its latest meeting, which took place on Sunday. The group had agreed in November to reduce these quotas by a combined 2 million bpd, which amounted to an effective production cut of 1 million bpd in response to a weaker economic outlook. The decision drew the ire of the Biden administration, which had repeatedly asked the de-facto leader of OPEC, Saudi Arabia, to boost oil production as it struggled to reduce retail fuel prices. Now, the decision to keep production capped comes at the same time as the start date of an EU embargo on Russian crude plus a price cap supported by the G7 and Australia. While OPEC+ officials said, per Reuters, that the price cap on Russian oil was not discussed at the meeting, analysts have noted that OPEC has cause for concern with regard to the price cap as it considers it a weapon that could someday be used against it. “The decision reflects the unpredictability of supply and demand in coming months,” said an ANZ analyst about the OPEC+ decision, as quoted by Reuters. Perhaps more importantly, however, OPEC+ agreed to schedule its next meeting for February and the one after that for June. Until now, OPEC+ has been meeting every month to coordinate production. If meetings are going to be sparser from now on, that would suggest the current policy is going to stick: the quota cap was originally planned to remain in place until the end of 2021.Meanwhile, prices are responding as expected to the OPEC+ decision, helped by continuing Covid restriction relaxation in China. NN: At one point Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate were up by more than 3 percentage points from Friday’s close and as i publish this down 2%. although both remained far below $90 per barrel. I am on record not even one barrel of Russian crude will be removed from the market. AND AND the fucking idiots are giving Russia a $10 a barrel price increase……
Oil Prices Advance as OPEC Decides to Gauge Impact of Russia Price Cap
OPEC+ keeps steady policy amid weakening economy, Russian oil cap
LONDON/DUBAI (Reuters) -OPEC+ agreed to stick to its oil output targets at a meeting on Sunday as the oil markets struggle to assess the impact of a slowing Chinese economy on demand and a G7 price cap on Russian oil on supply. The decision comes two days after the Group of Seven (G7) nations agreed a price cap on Russian oil. OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, angered the United States and other Western nations in October when it agreed to cut output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd), about 2% of world demand, from November until the end of 2023. Washington accused the group and one of its leaders, Saudi Arabia, of siding with Russia despite Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
OPEC+ argued it had cut output because of a weaker economic outlook. Oil prices have declined since October due to slower Chinese and global growth and higher interest rates, prompting market speculation the group could cut output again. [O/R]
But on Sunday the group of oil producers decided to keep the policy unchanged.
Its key ministers will next meet on Feb. 1 for a monitoring committee while a full meeting is scheduled for June 3-4. On Friday, G7 nations and Australia agreed $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil in a move to deprive President Vladimir Putin of revenue while keeping Russian oil flowing to global markets. Moscow said it would not sell its oil under the cap and was analysing how to respond,
Many analysts and OPEC ministers have said the price cap is confusing and probably inefficient as Moscow has been selling most of its oil to countries like China and India, which have refused to condemn the war in Ukraine.
Neither the OPEC meeting on Saturday nor the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday discussed the Russian price cap, sources said. JP Morgan said on Friday that OPEC+ could review production in the new year based on fresh data on Chinese demand trends and consumer compliance with price caps on Russia crude output and tanker flow. NN: As we figured no further production cuts by OPEC and caps set above the current price brings more Russian oil to market. This is VERY bearish.. Remember this is a binary trade now more then ever. Its all about CHINA that is seeing record COVID infections
EU confirms Russian oil price cap effective as of Dec. 5
The European Union has reached a consensus on the price at which to cap Russian oil just days before its ban on most imports comes into force. News of the deal, which had needed approval from holdout Poland, was confirmed on Twitter by the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, marking a key milestone in the West’s efforts to punish President Vladimir Putin without adding to stress on the global economy.
“Today, the European Union, the G7 and other global partners have agreed to introduce a global price cap on seaborne oil from Russia,” von der Leyen said, adding that it would strengthen sanctions on Russia, diminish Moscow’s revenues and stabilize energy markets by allowing EU-based operators to ship the oil to third-party countries provided it is priced below the cap. NB: ha Ha HAHAHAHA this is a sick joke. these sanctions do nothing but get a headline.
The bloc’s 27 member states agreed Friday to set the cap at $60 a barrel, an EU official with knowledge of the situation told CNN on Friday. The West’s biggest economies agreed earlier this year to establish a price cap after lobbying by the United States, and vowed to hash out the details by early December. But setting a number had proved difficult. Capping the price of Russian oil between $65 and $70 a barrel, a range previously under discussion, wouldn’t have caused much pain for the Kremlin. Urals crude, Russia’s benchmark, has already been trading within or close to that range. EU countries such as Poland and Estonia had pushed for the cap to be lower. “Today’s oil price cap agreement is a step in right direction, but this is not enough,” Estonian foreign minister Urmas Reinsalu tweeted Friday. “Intent is right, delivery is weak.” A price of $60 represents a discount of almost $27 to Brent crude, the global benchmark. Urals has been trading at discounts of around $23 in recent days. Reuters reported that the EU agreement included a mechanism to adjust the level of the cap to ensure it was always 5% below the market rate. The risk of settling on a lower price is that Russia could retaliate by slashing its output, which would roil markets. Russia previously warned that it will stop supplying countries that adhere to the cap. With EU countries in alignment, the last remaining obstacle to a wider G7 agreement was lifted. A top US Treasury department official said Thursday that $60 would be acceptable. “We still believe that the price cap will help limit Mr. Putin’s ability to profiteer off the oil market so that he can continue to fund a war machine that continues to kill innocent Ukrainians,” National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby told reporters. “We think that the $60 per barrel is appropriate and we think it will have that effect,” Kirby added. The price cap is designed to be enforced by companies that provide shipping, insurance and other services for Russian oil. If a buyer has agreed to pay more than the cap, they would withhold those services. Most of these firms are based in Europe or the United Kingdom. Investors are already on edge, with the European Union’s embargo on Russian oil traveling by sea set to take effect on Monday. Confusion about the impact of that measure, along with lingering questions about the price cap, have unsettled traders. “There’s so much uncertainty and doubt and lack of clarity about the policy that no one’s really confident about how to act,” said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at the research firm Energy Aspects. Oil prices have dropped sharply since the summer, as China’s coronavirus lockdowns and global recession fears have dented demand. OPEC and Russia announced a big production cut in October, but that had little sustained impact on prices. The EU embargo and efforts to set a price cap could begin to push them higher again.
NN: BlackMask Blog: The Sick Joke of the Century
November jobs report is not good news on the inflation battle
Feds favorite inflation gauge PCE index rose by 0.2% in October
Fed officials’ favorite inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—rose by 0.2% in October, according to Commerce Department data released Thursday. That’s a slight drop from the 0.5% month-over-month gain seen in September. And its still climbing…… The 5% year-over-year core PCE reading was still well above the Fed’s 2% target inflation rate. The upcoming CPI report on Dec. 13 will be “the most important inflation report of the year. “The broader economic picture is darkening,” Daco said, noting that the housing market is “tumbling” under the weight of the Fed’s rate hikes and businesses are pulling back on investing and hiring. “Our view remains that a recession will likely unfold in early 2023,” he added. Even Fed officials believe a U.S. recession over the next year is “almost as likely” as their baseline scenario for a “soft landing,” the Federal Open Market Commitee’s November meeting minutes show. If inflation surprises to the upside in December, then “all bets are off and we could see a sell-off into year-end.” And Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a Thursday research note that he doesn’t believe “macroeconomic conditions for a sustained market rally are yet in place.” Haefele expects an economic slowdown to cut S&P 500 earnings by 4% in 2023, which means investors would be wise to seek out value stocks and “defensive areas” in the stock market like the health-care and consumer staples sectors. Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson has also warned that markets could be in for more pain ahead. Wilson believes the S&P 500 could drop to between 3000 and 3300 “sometime in the first four months” of 2023, implying a potential 25% downside in the index from current levels. “The bear market is not over,” he said. “We’ve got significantly lower lows if our earnings forecast is correct.” NN: this is not NOT moderating inflation….. Its more of the same and the FED will continue raising rates
Switzerland Considers Electric Vehicle Ban To Avoid Blackouts
Switzerland could limit the use of electric vehicles (EVs) in cases of electricity supply shortages this winter under a new four-step plan to prevent power cuts and blackouts. To ensure energy security this winter, Switzerland could become the first country to limit the driving and use of EVs, German daily Der Spiegel reports, citing multiple media reports on the Swiss four-stage action plan to avoid blackouts. Driving EVs could be banned in Switzerland unless in cases of “absolutely necessary journeys” in stage three of the power conservation plans. The country also plans a stricter speed limit on highways in the recently proposed action plan, which has yet to be adopted. Switzerland typically imports electricity from France and Germany to meet all its power demand, but this year supply from its neighbors is constrained. In France, the nuclear fleet availability is much lower than usual, which has led to the country becoming a net importer of electricity after decades of being a net exporter. The French electricity grid is at higher risk of strained power supplies in January 2023 than previously estimated due to lower nuclear power generation. The country could face the risk of power cuts this winter when electricity supply may not be enough to meet demand, Xavier Piechaczyk, the head of grid operator RTE, said earlier this week. In Germany, the situation is similar, as utilities are having to make do with no Russian pipeline gas supply. Switzerland’s power supply remains uncertain for the winter and troubles with enough electricity capacity cannot be ruled out, the Swiss Federal Electricity Commission, Elcom, said as early as in June. Due to the expected lower availability of French nuclear power generation and of France’s power exports to Switzerland, the Swiss imports of power generated in France is likely to be much lower this winter compared to previous winter seasons, Elcom said. Therefore, Switzerland may need to cover its electricity import needs of around 4 gigawatt hours (GWh) from imports from its other neighbors Germany, Austria, and Italy. However, the power export availability of those countries would heavily depend on the available fossil fuels, mostly natural gas, according to Elcom. NN: DOT buy the bullshit. If you CALCULATE ENERGY LOSS CHARGING AND DISCHARGING THE BATTERIES. And you realize that charging will take place at the same time. Think of it as batter charge your EV rush. Unfortunately the rush hour is for 8 hours. You can see the grid cannot handel the load. And add to the reality check that EV’s including semo trucks and buses, means you will need to double generation capicty. So where is the energy going to come from to charge al the vechicles? Why from fossil fuels…. SO what have you accomplished in all this?
Most deeply inverted Treasury curve in more than 4 decades
One of the bond market’s most reliable indicators of impending U.S. recessions is predicting a disaster. The Federal Reserve Powell made it clear yesterday the FED will remain committed to its battle on inflation. The spread between 2- TMUBMUSD02Y, 4.351% and 10-year Treasury yields TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.634% is stuck at one of its most negative levels since 1981-1982 at minus 67.3 basis points on Wednesday, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The more deeply negative the spread becomes, the more worrisome of a signal it’s emitting about the severity of the next economic downturn. The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield ended the New York trading session on Wednesday at 4.37%, up by 360.8 basis points since January, with traders pricing in further rate hikes. The 10-year yield was at 3.7% — or 67.3 basis points below the 2-year yield, resulting in a deeply negative spread — and at a level that indicates traders aren’t factoring in a whole lot of additional premium based on the possibility of higher, long-term inflation.
Higher and stickier yields at the front end of the curve are “a sign of Fed credibility,” with the central bank seen committed to keeping monetary policy restrictive for longer to rein in inflation, said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy for Société Générale. “Unfortunately, tighter policy will lead to demand destruction and lower growth, which is keeping long-end yields depressed.” In theory, lower economic growth equates to lower inflation, which helps the Fed do its job of controlling prices. The million-dollar question in financial markets, though, is just how quickly inflation will come down to more normal levels closer to 2%. History shows that Fed rate hikes have no apparent maximum impact on inflation for about 1.5 to 2 years, according to famed economist Milton Friedman, who was cited in an August blog by Atlanta Fed researchers.
“The yield curve will likely remain inverted until there is a clear sign of a policy pivot from the Fed,” Rajappa wrote in an email on Tuesday.
Asked whether the deeply inverted curve indicates central bankers will ultimately be successful in curbing inflation, she said, “It is not a question of if, but when. While inflation should steadily decline over the upcoming year, strong employment and sticky services inflation might delay the outcome.”
Ordinarily, the Treasury yield curve slopes upward, not downward, when the bond market sees brighter growth prospects ahead. In addition, investors demand more compensation to hold a note or bond for a longer period of time, which also leads to an upward sloping Treasury curve. That’s part of the reason why inversions grab so much attention. And at the moment, multiple parts of the bond market, not just the 2s/10s spread, are inverted.
For Ben Jeffery, a rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets, a deeply inverted curve “shows that the Fed has moved aggressively and will keep rates on hold in restrictive territory despite a quickly dimming economic outlook.”
The 2s/10s spread hasn’t been so far below zero as it recently has since the early years of Ronald Reagan’s presidency. In October 1981, when the 2s10s spread shrank to as little as minus 96.8 basis points, the annual headline inflation rate from the consumer-price index was above 10%, the fed-funds rate was around 19% under then-Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, and the U.S. economy was in the midst of one of its worst downturns since the Great Depression. Volcker’s bold moves paid off, though, with the annual headline CPI rate dropping below 10% the following month and continuing to fall more steeply in the months and years that followed. Inflation hadn’t reared its head again until last year and again this year, when the annual headline CPI rate went above 8% for seven straight months before dipping to 7.7% in October. NN: Do not let them sucker you. Of course the swings are scare y. You have trillion dollar, yes you read that right, trillion dollar portfolio managers that WILL wipe out RETIREMENT SAVINGS. This will happen when the recession/depression everyone knows is coming lands on their door step. If ever their was a time to stick to your guns this is it!