BlackMask Financial – Page 350 – BlackMask Breaking News

July 24, 2022 5:52 am

Markets face most important week of summer

https://youtu.be/-7yarE5BMws

There’s a head-spinning amount of news for markets to navigate in the week ahead, the biggest of which will be the Federal Reserve’s midweek meeting. The two largest U.S. companies — Microsoft and Apple — report Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. Google parent Alphabet releases results Tuesday, and Amazon reports Thursday. Meta Platforms, formerly Facebook, reports Wednesday. In all, more than a third of the S&P 500 companies are reporting. On top of that are several hefty economic reports, which should add fuel to the debate on whether the economy is heading toward, or is already in, a recession. Second-quarter gross domestic product is expected Thursday. The Fed’s preferred personal consumption expenditures inflation data comes out Friday morning, as does the employment cost index. Home prices and new home sales are reported Tuesday and consumer sentiment is released Friday. The run-up to the Fed’s meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday has already proven to be dramatic, with traders at one point convinced a full point rate hike was coming. But Fed officials pushed back on that view, and economists widely expect a second three-quarter point hike to follow the one last month. The Fed’s rate hiking is the most aggressive in decades, and the July meeting comes as investors are trying to determine whether the central bank’s tighter policies have already or will trigger a recession. That makes the economic reports in the week ahead all the more important. Topping the list is that second-quarter GDP, expected to be negative by many forecasters. A contraction would be the second in a row on top of the 1.6% decline in the first quarter. Two negative quarters in a row, when confirming declines in other data, is viewed as the sign of a recession. The widely watched Atlanta Fed GDP Now was tracking at a decline of 1.6% for the second quarter. Trade remains a huge problem and inventories were drained instead of built. What’s interesting is those inventories were drained without a lot of discounting. My suspicion is inventories were ordered at even higher prices.” The potential for volatility is high, with markets focused on the Fed, earnings and recession worries. Fed Chair Jerome Powell could also create some waves, if he is more hawkish than expected.

Week ahead calendar

Monday

Earnings: Newmont Goldcorp, Squarespace, Whirlpool, NXP Semiconductor, TrueBlue, F5

Tuesday

Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, General Motors, 3M, UPS, PulteGroup, Raytheon Technologies, Texas Instruments, Archer-Daniels-Midland, Chubb, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Mondelez International, Canadian National Railway, Pentair, LVMH, Paccar, Kimberly-Clark, Albertsons, General Electric, Ameriprise, Teradyne, Ashland, Boston Properties, FirstEnergy, Visa

FOMC begins 2-day meeting

9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices

9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices

10:00 a.m. New home sales

10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence

Wednesday

Earnings: Boeing, Meta Platforms, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Ford, Etsy, Qualcomm, T-Mobile, Kraft Heinz, Norfolk Southern, Netgear, Cheesecake Factory, American Water Works, Ryder System, Genuine Parts, Waste Management, Hilton Worldwide, Boston Scientific, Owens Corning, Sherwin-Williams, Fortune Brands, Lam Research, Flex, Hess, Community Health Systems, Molina Healthcare

8:30 a.m. Durable goods

10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

2:00 p.m. FOMC statement

2:30 p.m. Fed Chair Jerome Powell press briefing

Thursday

Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Comcast, Intel, Merck, Pfizer, Honeywell, Mastercard, Northrop Grumman, Southwest Air, Harley-Davidson, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Diageo, Shell, Stanley Black and Decker, Carlyle Group, Southern Co, Lazard, Roku, International Paper, Sirius XM, Hershey, PG&E, ArcelorMittal, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Hertz Global, T.Rowe Price, Valero, Embraer, First Solar, Beazer Homes, Hartford Financial, Celanese, VF Corp, Eastman Chemical, Frontier Group

8:30 a.m. Initial claims

8:30 a.m. Real GDP [Q2 advanced]

Friday

Earnings: AstraZeneca, Weyerhaeuser, Sony, BNP Paribas, Eni, Aon

8:30 a.m. Employment Cost Index

8:30 a.m. Personal income/spending

8:30 a.m. PCE deflator

9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI

10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

July 23, 2022 11:54 am

Pierre Andurand Sees Oil Demand Surprising To The Upside

Global oil demand is more likely to surprise to the upside even in a very weak economy, popular hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand said in a Twitter thread on Friday. Due to COVID-related lockdowns, demand has been way below trend over the last few years, the hedge fund manager said. Average annual oil demand growth from 2000 to 2010, and 2010 to 2019 was quite steady at around 1.2 million bpd to 1.3 million bpd, and in line with population growth over time, Andurand noted. Taking 2019 as a base, and estimating demand growth at 1.2 million bpd per year, we should be at 104.2 million bpd of demand for 2022. But the latest estimate is 99.2 million bpd, or 5 million bpd below trend already, the hedge fund manager noted. “Very weak demand is already in the forecasts,” Andurand said, but added that “it is more likely to surprise to the upside, even in a very weak economy, assuming we can get enough supply.” In the first weeks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Andurand said that oil prices could jump to an all-time high of $200 per barrel by the end of this year, as oil producers ranging from African members of OPEC+ to the U.S. shale patch would struggle to replace the Russian crude that is going off the market. Forecasts of global demand growth have been downgraded in recent weeks amid concerns that high fuel prices are starting to dent demand and that an economic slowdown, and even recession, is in the cards in the near future as central banks have begun an aggressive cycle of key interest rate hikes to fight high inflation. The International Energy Agency (IEA), for example, revised down last week its oil demand growth estimate by 100,000 bpd to 1.7 million bpd growth for 2022. “Higher prices and a deteriorating economic environment have started to take their toll on oil demand, but strong power generation use and a recovery in China are providing a partial offset,” the agency said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report (OMR) last week. NN: Their is no doubt in my mind that oil prices will surprise to the upside. On July 14 oil set a recent low at $88 a barrel. NORMALLY that would trigger a buy for me. But these markets are brutal and the swings are a killer… As suspected oil then rose on short order to over $100 a barrel only to fall again to $95 on Friday. That further confirms to me more work to the downside before a get my next significant pop.Talk about a wild ride from $120 a barrel on June 8 to $88 on July 14th. DO you really think if we were all in we could stand a $40 ride….. Too much to get right….. That is why we have been playing a waiting game. I will soon be giving you a oil trade. But first i want to see what next weeks earnings, GDP report and Fed rate rise brings us. Next week could set the tone of stocks, currency, gold and oil for the rest of the summer.

July 23, 2022 4:42 am

U.S. leading economic index pointing to recession around end of the year, Conference Board says…… US Recession Chances Surge to 38%, Bloomberg Economics Model Says

Leading economic index declines 0.8% in June, fourth straight monthly drop

Conference Board said: “Amid high inflation and rapidly tightening monetary policy, The Conference Board expects economic growth will continue to cool throughout 2022. A U.S. recession around the end of this year and early next is now likely, said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board.

US Recession Chances Surge to 38%, Bloomberg Economics Model Says

The odds of a US recession in the next year are now roughly one-in-three after consumer sentiment hit a record low and interest rates surged, according to the latest forecasts from Bloomberg Economics. Chance of Recession Within 12 Months The probability model, which incorporates a variety of factors ranging from housing permits and consumer survey data to the gap between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, is now flashing a 38% probability of a recession over the next 12 months. That’s up from around 0% just a few months before. “The risk of a self-fulfilling recession—and one that can happen as soon as early next year—is higher than before,” said Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics. “Even though household and business balance sheets are strong, worries about the future could cause consumers to pull back, which in turn would lead businesses to hire and invest less.” “The risk of a recession in early 2023 has risen substantially,” Wong said. Recession odds are much higher for the end of next year. Previous estimates by Bloomberg Economics show the chance of a US recession by the start of 2024 is roughly three in four. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in June by 75 basis points, the most since 1994, and signaled further increases—potentially of a similar size—in the months ahead. That came on the heels of a 50 basis-point hike in the prior month and cemented a decisively aggressive pivot by the central bank. The rapid run-up in borrowing costs, paired with tightening financial conditions and decades-high inflation, has heightened concerns that the Fed—in its attempt to cool the economy and therefore inflation—will ultimately tip the US economy into recession. The rise in recession odds in the latest month can largely be traced to two factors: a moderation in the corporate profit outlook and a significant deterioration in consumer sentiment. Financial conditions have tightened considerably in recent months, and corporate profit margins, while still robust, are set to soften somewhat in the second quarter of the year, according to Bloomberg Economics. In the wake of steep rate hikes by the Fed, businesses are contending with rising cost of capital. Secondly, Americans’ views of future business conditions sharply deteriorated in June. Each month the University of Michigan releases a closely watched survey of consumer sentiment. The June report not only showed a collapse in consumer sentiment to a record low but also a big decline in a gauge of the expected change in business conditions in a year. At 76, that figure is now at one of its lowest readings in records back to 1978. Decades-high inflation has particularly weighed on consumer confidence. Americans are facing near-record prices at the pump and ballooning bills at the grocery store. Adjusted for inflation, average hourly earnings have fallen for eight straight months, eroding Americans’ purchasing power and souring their views on the economy. The savings rate is near its lowest level since 2009, and more than half of Americans believe the US is already in recession. A recession is certainly not inevitable, but the path to a so-called soft landing—a cooling in economic activity that doesn’t lead to a recession—is becoming increasingly narrow. That may require price growth to slow sharply and would likely be accompanied by a slight rise in unemployment. The Fed is hopeful of such a result, but Chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged achieving it will be “very challenging.” Should a downturn begin in the next year or two, the pandemic recovery—which began in May 2020, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research—would be the shortest US expansion since the one in 1981-1982, which lasted just 12 months. NN: You can not get a higher chance of a recession then 100%. Since the US economy is already in a recession that means the debate of odds of a recession has been settled. The only question is how long it will take the pompous pricks to figure it out an how long it will last. Answer you can not see what you refuse to see. And the recession will last until the US economy enters into a depression..

July 23, 2022 4:18 am

Wall Street closes lower after disappointing earnings……. Snap shares plunge 38% after disappointing earnings….. Twitter sees $344M Q2 operating loss…….. Verizon’s Q2 revenue at $33.8B, up by just 0.1%……. Blackstone Q2 revenue falls to $629M Blackstone Q2 revenue falls to $629M

Major United States indexes closed lower on Friday with tech stocks falling sharply after disappointing earnings from Snap and Twitter. The Dow Jones declined 0.43%. The worst performer was Verizon, whose shares plummeted 6.75% after the company posted worse-than-expected second-quarter results. The Nasdaq 100 slumped 1.77% with Lucid Group plunging 8.38% and Meta tumbling 7.59%. The S&P 500 slid 0.93%. SVB Financial Group, which dived 17.15%, led the losses. The euro lost 0.21% against the dollar to sell for 1.02088 at 3:58 pm ET.

Snap shares plunge 38% after disappointing earnings report

Snap shares plunged 38% on Friday, a day after the company’s disappointing earnings report. Year-to-date, the stock dropped by more than 78%, and year-over-year, more than 84%. The company declared a net loss of $422 million, 178% up from last year’s loss. “We are not satisfied with the results we are delivering, regardless of the current headwinds,” the company said. Operating loss stood at $401 million, while diluted net loss per share attributable to common stockholders came in at $0.26 in the three-month period that ended on June 30, 2022. Snap’s shares were down by 38.69% at 12:35 pm ET to sell for $10.03.

Twitter sees $344M Q2 operating loss amid Musk deal uncertainty

Twitter Inc. reported on Friday that its revenue remained mostly unchanged in the second quarter of 2022 at $1.18 billion, amid uncertainties related to the pending takeover by billionaire Elon Musk. The platform’s average monetizable daily active usage (mDAU) increased by 16.6% to 237.8 million, with averaging US mDAU rising 14.7% to 41.5 million. Twitter’s costs and expenses soared 31% to $1.52 billion, while on the other hand, operating loss shrank 29% to $344 million. Twitter also saw a net loss of $270 million, or a diluted loss per share of $0.35. “Given the pending acquisition of Twitter by an affiliate of Elon Musk, we will not host an earnings conference call, issue a shareholder letter, or provide financial guidance in conjunction with our second quarter 2022 earnings release,” the report concluded.

Private equity investment giant The Blackstone Group Inc. revealed on Thursday that its revenue in the second trimester of fiscal 2022 came in at $629 million, plunging from $5.3 billion recorded a year prior. Net loss attributable to Blackstone in the second quarter of 2022 stood at $29.4 million, or $0.04 per share, in comparison to the net income of $1.31 billion, or $1.82 per share, recorded in the same period of 2021. Nevertheless, Blackstone reported that its assets under management increased to $940.8 billion, jumping 38% year over year. It declared a quarterly dividend of $1.27 per share, an increase from $0.70 recorded in the same period a year earlier. “Blackstone’s flagship strategies again outperformed public markets and our investors entrusted us with $88 billion of inflows, which represented the second highest quarter of inflows in our 36-year history,” Blackstone Chairman and CEO Stephen A. Schwarzman. Shares of Blackstone fell 2.06% to $99.02 in premarket trading following the announcement. NN: Bottom Line US is already in a recession AND its about to get a lot worse….. Next week is Earnings week on steroids with 225 companies reporting… Add CPI and FED rate decision we have a lot on the line in our NASDAQ 100 trade….. Lady luck do not fail me now…. Prepare for a wipe out….. We should have bought lottery tickets instead, because the prize in the Mega Millions jackpot stands at $660M. Odds are 300 million to 1….. much better then this trade.

July 23, 2022 3:10 am

France to restart coal power station to avoid energy shortage

PARIS, June 26 (Reuters) – The French government could restart a coal-fired power plant in the Lorraine region in north eastern France this winter, France’s energy ministry said in a written statement Sunday, confirming a report from broadcaster RTL. “As a precautionary measure, given the situation in Ukraine, we are reserving the option to reactivate the Saint Avold plant …if needed this winter,” the ministry said. The plans will not affect the phasing out of coal plants in France, the ministry added, noting the operator would offset the emissions through measures like reforestation. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has thrown the spotlight on the Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, prompting a scramble to find alternative energy sources. The heads of France’s big energy companies on Sunday urged individuals and businesses to limit power consumption immediately to prepare for a looming energy crisis. No Russian coal will be used in the Saint Avold plant, the ministry said Sunday. NN: Its a global trend. The return to coal generation of electricity…… WHY/; because coal is cheap, plentiful and in wide distribution….. Job well done Greeneeewennies.

July 21, 2022 11:42 pm

Philadelphia Fed Factory Outlook Falls to Lowest Since 1979… the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators dropped 0.8% in June, the steepest slide since April 2020

Philadelphia-area manufacturers’ outlook for business conditions slumped this month to the lowest level since 1979 as gauges of future new orders and planned capital expenditures both deteriorated. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia data on Thursday showed a measure of business conditions six months from now slid nearly 12 points to minus 18.6. The index of manufacturers’ current assessment dropped 9 points to minus 12.3, worse than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The Fed bank’s future index of new orders decreased 5 points to minus 12.4, also the weakest since 1979, with about one-third of manufacturers anticipating declines six months from now. The figures highlight growing anxiety about demand and the economy’s prospects amid widespread inflation and higher borrowing costs. Separate data Thursday showed the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators dropped 0.8% in June, the steepest slide since April 2020 during the height of the pandemic.

“Amid high inflation and rapidly tightening monetary policy, the Conference Board expects economic growth will continue to cool throughout 2022,” Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the Conference Board, said in a statement. “A US recession around the end of this year and early next is now likely.” Increased pessimism about the economy is prompting firms to reconsider capital spending plans. The Philadelphia Fed’s index of future capital expenditures slipped to 4.4 in July from 11.7 a month earlier. NN: Wall Street is taking magic mushrooms. The Hallucination goes like this. The FED has raised rates enough that inflation will come down and the economy will avoid a recession….. Really? In reality i expect the FED could raise interest rates 100 bases points next week….

July 21, 2022 10:57 am

Lagarde: Inflation to stay undesirably high for some time

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated on Thursday that inflation is expected to “remain undesirably high for some time” as global energy prices stay high in the near term. She warned that price pressures are spreading across more sectors in part because of energy price pressures. However, she noted that “in absence of new disruptions,” energy costs should stabilize and supply bottlenecks should ease, helped by monetary policy normalization. Lagarde stated that the labor market remains strong, with a “robust demand.” Wage growth has continued to increase gradually over the last few months, but “still remains contained overall,” although faster wage growth is expected over time as the economy strengthens. “Most measures of longer-term inflation expectations currently stand at around 2%, although recent above-target revisions to some indicators warrant continued monitoring,” she stated. NN: Lagard honey sweet heart along with sexy Janet has got themselves a great big run away problem. Christine has got her tit in a ringer just like Powell who got his balls in a vice. They will have to significantly raise rates further and drive the global economy into a depression.. Their is no way out.

July 21, 2022 8:54 am

ECB hikes interest rates by 50 bps, first in 11 years

The European Central Bank (ECB) decided on Thursday to raise key interest rates by 50 basis points, marking the first rate hike since 2011. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 0.50%, 0.75% and 0.00% respectively, with effect from 27 July 2022, the ECB said. “The frontloading today of the exit from negative interest rates allows the Governing Council to make a transition to a meeting-by-meeting approach to interest rate decisions. The Governing Council’s future policy rate path will continue to be data-dependent and will help to deliver on its 2% inflation target over the medium term,” the bank explained. The ECB also decided to approve the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), whose role will be to “ensure that the monetary policy stance is transmitted smoothly across all euro area countries” by countering “unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy.” Finally, it will “continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase program for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates and, in any case, for as long as necessary to maintain ample liquidity conditions and an appropriate monetary policy stance.” NN: we entered into a Euro long trade months ago. It really went against us. So i spread them Becky. When I saw the Euro bust the par on the dollar i knew the EU central bank that was caught napping would awake from its slumber. I confirmed my view when i saw the Euro bounced and i closed out the short side of our spread with profits. Last night i went home fully long. And like i new they would they raised rates and i got my 50 bases point move by the ECB. We are now adding longs at our preselected average point. The US had more inflation then anyone else and started the parade. Soon their will be a stampede out of the dollar. The sky high dollar has pounded us into the sand since our trading currency is the Euro…. I believe we will soon knock their dick in the sand….

July 21, 2022 8:32 amJuly 21, 2022 8:35 am

Gazprom doubles yesterday’s gas supply today – Eni……. European gas down 10% as Nord Stream restarts

https://youtu.be/oHCWZPTFylo

Gazprom will deliver approximately 36 million cubic meters of gas today as opposed to yesterday’s 21 million cubic meters, Italian multinational oil and gas company Eni announced on Thursday morning. Earlier in the day, the German Federal Network Agency noted that the Russian oil and gas giant intends to get back to the same level of gas transit that was noted before the servicing had started, adding that the transit of gas has resumed. The agency said that the plan is to return to gas supplies that account for 40% of the Nord Stream maximum capacity. However, the German energy regulator later added that the pre-maintenance level of 40% might even be exceeded today. NN: What is not public information is the fact the EU is caving in. Putin knows how to control his bitches,,,,,,, Let me hear you squeal like a pig,,,,, A starving man will do anything for a potato. And a freezing man will do anything to heat his house so his family does not freeze to death.

European gas down 10% as Nord Stream restarts

The price of European gas dropped over 10% on Thursday after the Nord Stream pipeline resumed operations after maintenance. Over the recent days, officials from the European Union grew increasingly concerned that Russia will not restart gas flow through the pipeline as the relations between Brussels and Moscow remain very tense over the conflict in Ukraine. UK natural gas futures for delivery in August slumped 10.18% to 241.000 pence per therm at 12:17 pm CET.

July 21, 2022 2:22 am

Putin: Even Launch Of Nord Stream 2 Can’t Help With Europe’s Gas Shortage

Even if Russia were to start Nord Stream 2 tomorrow, the gas flows through it would be unable to alleviate much of the natural gas shortages in Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday, adding that he had warned German Chancellor Olaf Scholz about this. Germany actually never certified the twin link of the Nord Stream pipeline from Russia to Germany. Russia completed the Nord Stream 2 project last year, but Germany halted the certification of the project late in 2021. After Russia invaded Ukraine at the end of February 2022, Germany suspended indefinitely the project that was designed to double Russian gas flows to Germany. “We now have to reassess the dramatically changed situation: This also applies toNord Stream 2,” Chancellor Scholz said at the time, adding that “The certification cannot take place now.” Speaking to reporters while on a visit to Iran today, Putin said, referring to Scholz and Nord Stream 2, “I had to warn him that we would take half of the volumes intended for Nord Stream 2 for internal consumption and processing then. I talked about that issue at Gazprom’s request, and Gazprom has already done that.””Therefore, even if we launch Nord Stream 2 tomorrow, it won’t be 55 million cubic meters a year, but exactly half of that. In addition, bearing in mind that only the second half is left of this year, it means only one-fourth. That’s the situation with the supplies,” Putin was quoted as saying by Russian news agency Interfax. Also on Wednesday, Putin warned Europe that Gazprom could cut natural gas flows to Europe via the existing Nord Stream route due to slow progress with the maintenance of the gas turbines at compressor stations. Nord Stream is undergoing regular maintenance between July 11 and 21, and no gas currently flows from the key gas link between Russia and Germany. The European Union is bracing for the possibility that Russia will not resume natural gas deliveries to Europe via Nord Stream as planned. NN: Europe is a lemon to squeeze. No WAY Putin cuts off the gas supply to Europe. Does a drug dealer stop selling drugs to an addict. Putin is to smart to make that mistake. Reality as as i have warned for years Europe is Putin’s bitch. He worked to long, invested to much money to make that mistake