Author: BlackMask Financial

Posted on

Fed’s Bostic calls for 75 basis point interest rate hike in July

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in a panel discussion at the American Economic Association/Allied Social Science Association (ASSA) 2019 meeting in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S., January 4, 2019. REUTERS/Christopher Aluka Berry

July 8 (Reuters) – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic, until recently among the central bank’s most dovish policymakers, on Friday said he “fully” supports another three quarters of a percentage point interest rate rise at the Fed’s next policy meeting later this month.

“We can move by 75 basis points at the next meeting and not see a lot of protracted damage to the economy,” Bostic said in an interview with CNBC.

Bostic said a report out earlier Friday showing U.S. job growth increased more than expected and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6% in June “reaffirms that the economy is strong and there is still a lot of momentum in the labor market and that is a good thing.”

Still, he said, the data shows some early signs of a slowing economy. “They are really just minor signs and …what I’m going to be looking for over the next several months is evidence that that slowing is becoming much more sustained, and much more significant across the board,” he said.

Reporting by Ann Saphir and Lindsay Dunsmuir; editing by Chizu Nomiyama

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Posted on

US nonfarm payrolls beat estimates in June…. FED rate increases full steam ahead

Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 372,000 in June, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed on Friday. This reading followed May’s increase of 384,000 (revised from 390,000) and came in better than the market expectation of 268,000. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 3.6% as expected. Further details of the publication revealed that the annual wage inflation, as measured by the Average Hourly Earnings, edged lower to 5.1% from 5.3% in May and the Labor Force Participation declined to 62.2% from 62.3.Total nonfarm payroll employment in the United States increased by 372,000 in June beating market estimates, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.6%.

According to a report published by the Labor Statistics Bureau on Friday, the unemployment rate stood at 3.6% for the fourth month in a row as the number of unemployment remained at 5.9 million. The figures were similar to those from the pre-pandemic level. The highest jobless rate of 11% was recorded among teenagers, followed by 5.8% among Blacks, the report concluded. NN: another Wall Street orgy proven to be just another wet dream pin up picture and all. The surprise result for Wall Street not me  are supporting the Federal Reserve’s decision to increase the pace of interest rate hikes in the coming months. Wall Street was spinning the economy was slow enough to stay future FEDS rates increases… No cookie here,,,,,,, Prepare for antilock break deployment.  At least the street will not slide into the brick wall. It will be a controlled crash.

 

Posted on

Calpers Unloads Record $6 Billion of Private-Equity Stakes at Discount

The California Public Employees’ Retirement System sold about $6 billion of its stakes in private equity funds to second-hand buyers, severing ties with a slew of past managers and freeing up cash for new wagers.  The $440 billion public pension fund, the largest in the US, has cycled through four investment chiefs since 2009 and has long wrestled with the complexity of its $50 billion in private equity holdings. Calpers hired Jefferies Financial Group Inc. to explore ways to clean up its portfolio and shop a swath of assets, according to people familiar with the matter. Lexington Partners, an investment business of Franklin Resources Inc., and CVC Capital Partners’ Glendower Capital snapped up pieces in separate sales that wrapped up over the past two weeks, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private transactions. The deal is not only the largest of its kind by Calpers, but private equity executives said it’s probably the biggest-ever involving second-hand fund stakes changing hands. Trading in such size came at a price: Calpers sold its holdings at a roughly 10% discount to their value in September 2021, some of the people said. The fund softened the blow thanks in part to how it structured the deal, they said. The blockbuster transaction generates money for investment chief Nicole Musicco, who took over earlier this year, to make new wagers as markets remain volatile. She has told Calpers directors that she wants to build a team that would buy stakes in private companies. That would let Calpers gain more control and bypass private equity firms like Blackstone Inc. or Carlyle Group Inc.    “The sale positions us to act on our new asset allocation and allows us to capitalize on market opportunities,” Musicco said in a statement to Bloomberg. Calpers drew up plans last year to increase private equity and grow private debt. NN: They forgot to mention to make this deal where they took a 50% haircut they have to wait 6 months to get their money…. And they spun that as a plus. And they forget to mention the penson funds they manage are horrible underfunded. A lot of boomer’s are not going to be on the beach, Instead the check out at the 7/11 or a tent in the Walmart parking lot

Posted on

VIX Traders Are Piling Into Bets That Fresh Stock Pain Is Ahead

https://youtu.be/t7R44Q7qa10

Volatility traders are putting their guard up just as US stocks bounce back, with options signaling the highest level of anxiety since right before the 2020 pandemic crash. The call-put ratio on the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, jumped Wednesday to levels unseen for some two and a half years, driven by bets on fresh market turmoil. Options hedging is showing signs of revival after staying subdued during the recent equity selloff. The rush for protection reflects investor uneasiness in the face of the S&P 500’s longest streak of gains in three months.  With a cost measure of VIX options hovering near the lowest level since 2019, traders are likely taking advantage of what looks like cheap insurance against the next bout of market chaos. The hedging activity stands out given the fact that the VIX, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, failed to hit new highs since March even as the S&P 500 careened to fresh lows.  “VIX hedging hasn’t worked like you’d expect,” said Danny Kirsch, head of options at Piper Sandler & Co. “Implied volatility moves have been muted all year. It’s been a terrible hedge so far.”

Traders turn to VIX options for hedge, pushing call-put ratio to highest since 2020

Before this month, there were signs that professional investors were shunning equity options and instead flocking to stock futures to hedge positions. Now, demand for options appears to be back. More than 440,000 VIX calls changed hands Wednesday, outpacing puts by a margin of 5.8-to-1. That’s the highest reading since January 2020. The VIX fell for a second day, slipping to 25.91 as of 10:43 a.m. in New York, poised for a one-month low. Stocks advanced for a fourth day amid optimism over China’s $220 billion stimulus plan. Despite the bounce, the S&P 500 is down about 18% this year as investors reassess equity valuations in light of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive plan to tighten monetary policy. NN: I see this little drug party they are throwing in stocks ending in a great big drug bust. So what is a lucky guesser to do but short the shit out of it and hoping the lottery tickets pay off.

Posted on

Bonds mired in extreme bearishness – BoFA

LONDON, July 8 (Reuters) – Investors sought shelter in cash and U.S. Treasuries and dumped gold and equities as markets braced for a bumpy ride as central banks raise rates aggressively in the face of slowing economic growth, BoFA Securities said in a weekly note on Friday. Investors squirreled $62.6 billion into cash and $2.4 billion into bonds, BoFA said citing EPFR data. The week ending July 6 marked the biggest inflow into U.S. Treasuries in eight weeks, while emerging market equities saw the biggest outflow in eight weeks. “The simple truth remains that the second half is most likely to be one of slowing growth and rising rates,” BofA analysts said led by Michael Hartnett.

“Bear markets end with a recession or an event that causes Fed to reverse policy.. bear markets aren’t over and the Big Low has yet to be reached.”

A market indicator measuring how investors are positioned held at “extremely bearish” levels for a fourth consecutive week. Outflows from European equity funds extended into its 21st week, while emerging market debt has now seen outflows for the past 13 weeks. In other notable highlights, a U.S. Treasury bond market volatility gauge held above 150 for only the 11th time in the past 35 years, levels coinciding with recessions or default. NN: we are trading this by shorting the most recent bear market rally. In the future we will take advantage of the FED overtighting by raising rates to high. I would like to catch this move by legging into our beloved Zeroes.

Posted on

US surges at close, Dow up almost 350 points

Major stock indexes in the United States rallied at close on Thursday, as S&P 500 ended the trading session higher for the fourth consecutive day, making this its longest winning streak since March 2022. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard noted that the country’s economy will be expanding during this year despite rate hikes, while Fed’s Board of Governors member Christopher Waller shared that he would back a 75-basis point hike in July. On the data front, the Department of Labor revealed the number of initial jobless claims in the US rose by 4,000. Meanwhile, the country’s trade deficit decreased to $85.5 billion in May. The Dow Jones jumped 1.12% or 346 points at the closing bell, as Caterpillar surged 4.63%. At the same time, S&P 500 gained 1.50%, with ON Semiconductor shooting up 9.24%. The Nasdaq 100 soared 2.16% at the close, with Lucid skyrocketing 8.92%. The euro lost 0.18% against the dollar at 3:59 pm ET, selling for 1.01648. NN: We saw this bounce coming and traded it up. It help our trading a lot. We then started shorting and hopefully that is the correct move. 2nd quarter earnings season will soon start and i expect MAJOR DOWNWARD revisions in forward earning guidance. That should be a nice reality check for diehard market bulls. I also believe that the FED is stuck in tighting mode. They are a year to late in getting into raising rates. And as is usual with those pompous doctoria pricks they will overtighten, Which means we have 2 years of FED FUCKUP fun in front of us….

Posted on

U.S. OIL and Gasoline Prices Are Falling

U.S. gasoline prices are starting to slide, AAA data showed on Wednesday. The average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States has fallen to $4.779, AAA data shows—a decrease of nearly 9 cents per gallon on the month.According to Gas Buddy’s Patrick De Haan, the downward trend could continue in the coming days and weeks, with “thousands of stations falling back under $4 per gallon,” De Haan said in a Wednesday tweet. The states that should see the most relief at less than $4 per gallon are South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, Alabama, Tennessee, and North Carolina, he said. Gasoline prices continue to be worrisome for the Biden Administration, whose party faces critical mid-term elections this fall. In a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll, 74% of Americans reported that gas prices are an important factor in how they will vote in the fall. It will be the first midterm to contend with a gasoline price hike of this magnitude. The Biden Administration has released 146 million barrels of crude oil from the nation’s stockpiles since taking office in order to curb high prices at the pump for American drivers, but gasoline prices are still up $1.645 per gallon from a year ago, AAA data shows, when gasoline prices were just $3.134 per gallon. U.S. refineries are running near-maximum capacity at 95%, and some of the barrels being released from the SPR are now heading overseas. The price of WTI has fallen by more than $13 in the last week, while Saudi Arabia announced crude oil price hikes for August for its prized market, Asia. NN: We are seeing demand destruction. But behind the seams the EU and US are letting Russia sneak barrels into the market. Theu really have no choice.

Posted on

Russian military advances towards Sloviansk – Ukraine……. Lavrov arrives in Bali for G20 FM summit

Russian troops bombarded several Ukrainian towns on their way to the city of Sloviansk, the Ukrainian military said on Thursday. According to the Ukrainian military, the Russian forces are being held back, however, the pressure is increasing, as the Russians continue to advance toward both Sloviansk and Bakhmut. Lugansk governor Serhiy Gaidai stated that the province is not entirely occupied by Russia, which, according to him, has suffered ”colossal losses.”

Lavrov arrives in Bali for G20 FM summit

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in Bali, Indonesia, to attend the G20 foreign ministers summit. The Russian Foreign Ministry announced that Lavrov will hold meetings with his Turkish and Chinese counterparts, Mevlut Cavusoglu and Wang Yi, during the event. On the other hand, United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock have said they will not meet with Lavrov amid Moscow’s war in Ukraine. NN: They are jerking us off. Reality is Russia is making great advances in its plan to gobble up the parts of the Ukraine worth having. NATO has been shown for the sick joke it is.

Posted on

Lavrov: Ukraine conflict to go on until Russia achieves goals

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Wednesday that Moscow intends to continue its military operation in Ukraine until it achieves its objectives. Speaking at a press conference in Hanoi after a meeting with his Vietnamese counterpart Bui Thanh Son, Lavrov accused the Western media of reporting one-sidedly about the war in Ukraine and failing to provide “objective information” about the “Ukrainian regime.” He added that the West should be aware of its “responsibility” for the deaths of civilians in Ukraine, particularly those in Donbass, as the weapons they provided to Kiev are used “against the civilian population as a means of deterrence, by and large, this is state terror.”The Russian top diplomat also denied Ukraine’s allegations that Russia attacked its own cities in order to blame it on Kiev. NN: any way shape id,  bend it or twist it… Russia challenged the world and is winning big time. And the failure of the democracies to engage Putin has been duly noted by the enemies of freedom from dictators to drug lords.

Posted on

Ray Dalio warns Russia may be ‘lesser loser’ in Ukraine war

Ray Dalio has hit out at political extremes in the U.S. that don’t respect a rules-based system, and warned that Russia is likely to be the “lesser loser” from the Ukraine war as the economic cost to the West causes NATO support to fracture. The founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund with about $150 billion under management, took to Linkedin on the U.S. Independence Day holiday to deliver an update on the forces he believes are shaping the world. And he’s not happy with how things are going in the U.S. “The remarkable leaders who designed the governance system [after the 1776 declaration of independence] and laid it out in the Constitution created both a principled and practical approach that thus far has lasted for nearly 250 years,” Dalio wrote. But now, some of the essential elements required for representative democracies to work well are being called into question, he noted, such as abiding by election votes and rulings of the Supreme Court. “With increasing conflict between populists of the right and populists of the left, growing numbers of people are inclined to fight for what they want and what they believe is right rather that work themselves through the rules-based system of consensus and compromise that our Founding Fathers designed.” Meanwhile, the world order is not changing for the better, implied Dalio, if the conflict in Ukraine is a guide.If Russian President Vladimir Putin ends up controlling the eastern part of Ukraine and manages to remain on the world stage then Russia would be a “lesser loser,” Dalio reckoned. “Because the devastation in Ukraine has been so much greater than it has been in Russia, and because this will be economically costly to Ukraine and/or those countries that will pay to have it rebuilt, the war looks like it will be even more costly to NATO countries, so that also will be relative win for Russia,” he added. In summary he said: “It appears that few countries are lining up strongly against Russia and behind NATO countries, and it appears that support within NATO countries for war is weakening due to its relatively high costs.” NN: NATO spins the shit that the heroic Ukrainians are winning. In reality they are getting their asses kick end. The EU and the US are spinning that sanctions are bringing Russia to its knees. In reality the Ruble is soaring in value and Russia is getting the heighest prices ever for its exports and demand is greater then ever. On the other hand the worlds democratic economies are seeing run away inflation. Energy prices are the highest ever and the Pound and Euro are collapsing on the world currency markets… Looks to me like Putin the evil emperor is winning. He now controls all of Ukraine bordering Russia and the black sea…. And NATO has proven once again it is afraid of a fight…..