Author: BlackMask Financial

LONDON (Reuters) – OPEC told the European Union on Monday that current and future sanctions on Russia could create one of the worst ever oil supply shocks and it would be impossible to replace those volumes. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo made the remarks in a meeting on Monday with EU officials, according to a copy of his speech seen by Reuters. NN:

The Gulf countries may not be reliable partners against Russia…

Earlier this month, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was welcomed in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates. To the dismay of the United States, the red carpet was rolled out for him, on the anniversary of the uprising against Assad, amid war mongering by his Russian ally in Ukraine. Just before, British PM Boris Johnson has been on a visit himself to both the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, not only to promote Global Britain, but also in a bid to convince both Gulf states to increase oil production. Johnson was acting as an emissary from the West, after the Gulf countries’ leaders declined to take a call from U.S. President Joe Biden to build international support for Ukraine and contain a surge in oil prices, signaling their unhappiness with the perceived Western lack of support for their security. These grievances include concerns about Biden’s move to take Yemenite Houthi rebels off of America’s official list of global terrorist groups. Drone and missile attacks on U.A.E. capital Abu Dhabi, launched earlier this year by the Iran-backed rebel group, and the prospect of a restoration of the Iran nuclear deal has added to the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia’s complaints. It’s not just refusing to take Joe Biden’s calls, however. More broadly, the Gulf states are hedging their bets on the Ukraine issue. The Emirates abstained during a United Nations vote condemning Russia’s invasion, and the Emirati leader, popularly known as “MBZ”, referred to “Russia’s right to ensure its national security” in a call with Russian President Putin. There has even been speculation that the U.A.E. could help Russia avoid Western sanctions, with Emirati officials reportedly assuring Russians that they will not enforce sanctions unless mandated by the UN — something which Moscow would certainly veto. On top of that, there is a deal between Russia and the Saudi-led oil cartel, OPEC, which the Saudis and Emiratis are reluctant to abandon, as it was hard-fought in 2020 and involved great concessions from Russia. The OPEC question will become increasingly important because the situation on the energy front is dire. The International Energy Agency has warned a global oil supply shock may be coming due to large-scale disruptions to Russian oil supplies, which would drive oil prices to even higher levels than today. While Saudi Arabia isn’t pumping oil at full capacity and has not yet pledged to do so, the U.A.E has promised to push OPEC to pump more oil, but this development has yet to materialize and wasn’t agreed upon with other OPEC members in advance. Despite the talk, actions on the ground further indicate the Emirates are moving away from the West, a shift which is in line with broader trends in the Gulf region. The euro is still plagued by its shaky political underpinnings, while it is still an open question whether bitcoin will be able to resist state action banning it, if it will ever be widely adopted in the first place. King dollar also retains its primacy due to the fact that oil sales are conducted in USD — at least for now. This week, it emerged that Saudi Arabia is considering accepting yuan instead of dollars for Chinese oil sales. UK faces “tough” talks with Gulf countries The continued primacy of the U.S. dollar also makes the argument less convincing that Western sanctions against Russia will push into to a separate trading bloc led by China, creating a kind of dichotomy within the global economy. That is unlikely to happen fast. Not only is China far from enjoying the degree of trust required to offer the world’s reserve currency, it’s impossible for Russia to simply replace its trade with the West with Chinese trade, as the volume of Russia’s current trade with the West is simply too high. The West, however, is determined to reduce that trade. Ahead of his trip to the Gulf, Boris Johnson vowed the world must “starve Putin’s addiction to oil and gas”, adding that “Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are key international partners in that effort.” Then, only one day after Johnson’s visit, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed pledged, during a visit to Moscow, to cooperate with Russia on bolstering global energy security. Johnson’s government seems to be wary to embrace fracking, which before Putin’s war helped the United States enjoy gas prices that are only one-sixth of the level in Europe. Unless Johnson revisits that stance, the UK has no choice but to become more energy dependent on the rest of the world, particularly petrol-rich states like the Gulf countries. So far, however, it’s unclear whether they’re ready to play ball. With UK talks with Gulf countries over increased oil production labeled “tough” and the Emirates gearing up to water down the effect of Western sanctions on Russia, something’s got to give. NN: Blow and go does not provide more energy. World leaders still don’t get it……The world is hopelessly and totally dependent on Russia oil and natural gas. And their is no alternative and And AND supplies are running short. their will be hell to pay after the summer driving season turns into winter…

Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed a new general to direct the war in Ukraine as his military shifts plans after a failure to take Kyiv, according to a US official and a European official.  The officials told CNN Army Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, commander of Russia’s Southern Military District, has been named theater commander of Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine   “It speaks to a Russian acknowledgement that it is going extremely badly and they need to do something differently,” the European official said. A new theater commander with extensive combat experience could bring a level of coordination to an assault now expected to focus on the Donbas region, instead of multiple fronts.   Dvornikov, 60, was the first commander of Russia’s military operations in Syria, after Putin sent troops there in September 2015 to back the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. During Dvornikov’s command in Syria from September 2015 to June 2016, Russian aircraft backed the Assad regime and its allies as they laid siege to rebel-held eastern Aleppo, bombarding densely populated neighborhoods and causing major civilian casualties. The city fell to Syrian government forces in December 2016.  Russian forces have used a similarly heavy-handed approach in parts of Ukraine, striking residential buildings in major cities and demolishing much of the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol.   “We will see how effective that proves to be,” the European official said. “The Russian doctrine, the Russian tactics remain pretty much as they’ve been since Afghanistan.” Military analysts and US officials familiar with intelligence assessments have speculated Russia’s generals have a goal of presenting Putin with some tangible battlefield progress ahead of Victory Day on May 9, when Russia observes the defeat of Nazi Germany and traditionally marks the occasion with a parade in Moscow’s Red Square.    The European official described it as a “self-imposed deadline,” that could lead the Russians to make additional mistakes. But it could also potentially lead Russian forces to commit more atrocities, as allegedly happened in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha while under Russian occupation. “The stench of these war crimes is going to hang over these Russian armed forces for many years,” the official said. Former UK ambassador to Russia Sir Roderic Lyne told Sky News on Saturday Moscow has appointed a new general with a “pretty savage track record in Syria to try to at least gain some territory in Donetsk that Putin could present as a victory.”  Assigning a new overall commander for Russia’s war in Ukraine may be an attempt to create a more cohesive strategy. CNN previously reported that Russia had no theater-wide commander for Ukraine operations, meaning units from different Russian military districts have been operating without coordination and sometimes at cross purposes, according to two US defense officials.  The US has previously assessed Putin would likely name a general whose forces have been operating in Ukraine’s south because that is where the Russians have taken and held more territory, as opposed to the Russian bid to encircle Kyiv and cities in northern Ukraine, an effort that recently ended with a withdrawal.  Ukraine’s General Staff said Friday Russian forces had completed their withdrawal from Ukraine’s northern Sumy region, while continuing a buildup of forces in the country’s east.   Russia’s departure from northern Ukraine shows evidence of non-combatants being disproportionately targeted, according to a Saturday UK military intelligence update. The evidence includes mass graves, the fatal use of hostages as human shields and mining of civilian infrastructure, the update said. The update added Russian forces “continue to attack infrastructures with high risk of collateral harm to civilians, including a nitrate acid tank at Rubizhne, Ukraine.” NN: This new general was the architect of the Syrian genocide. And has has been appointed to do the same. Cluster bombs and chemical weapons galore… And don’t forget his favorite… barrel bombs dropped on civilian targets. The more children flamed the better.

Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Bill Dudley says the Fed “hasn’t really accomplished much yet” with its efforts to control inflation, and will need to tighten financial conditions to push bond yields higher and stock prices lower. “If financial conditions don’t cooperate with the Fed, the Fed’s going to have to do more until financial markets do cooperate,” Dudley, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. said on Bloomberg Television. NN: The Fed has only one tool to bring down the embedded inflation fire storm it has lit off.  And that is to crash the stock market… And it will!

Most of the time, President Biden doesn’t wear a mask, but occasionally he’s spotted with one. Sometimes his events are in crowded indoor rooms, other times outdoors. And through it all over the past two weeks, people close to Biden — if not in “close contact” as defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — are contracting covid as part of a wave washing over parts of official Washington. The White House approach appears somewhat haphazard, at times taking care to go beyond CDC guidelines and at others walking up to the edge of what’s recommended. And at least once in the last two weeks, he publicly disregarded his public health agency’s advice while visiting Poland. The president has been spared covid — so far. He is fully vaccinated and has been boosted twice, but he’s nearly 80 years old, putting him at higher risk for a severe case of the disease. Should Biden contract covid, there would likely be an immediate economic and political shock. And there could be a political price to pay for the president who staked his campaign on keeping America safe from the pandemic. “If the president contracts the virus, it’s going to be a big deal,” said Jonathan Reiner, a professor of medicine and surgery at George Washington University. “And there is this small but real risk of needing to be hospitalized or worse.” White House aides acknowledge that Biden could become infected. “I do think it is important to note it is possible he will test positive for covid at some point,” Navigating this new phase of the pandemic is tricky. Biden wants to show Americans they can get back to a normal life which inevitably involves taking more risks — which in turn potentially puts the president in the path of the pathogen.

The CDC has also stopped emphasizing its map of transmission levels, which labels Washington as “high transmission” for the coronavirus. Instead, the public health agency suggests relying on data that includes hospitalizations, which are low in D.C. But that shift masks the covid risk, health experts say, potentially making people feel overconfident about attending crowded gatherings.

Over the past 14 days, Biden has had at least 18 events where he has interacted with members of the public. including Biden walking around in a crowded mess hall in Rzeszów, Poland, to buck up U.S. troops. That put him unmasked and indoors in a country that the CDC warns Americans to avoid and recommends those traveling to wear masks at all times indoors. Biden also headlined a packed celebration in the East Room where he pulled close to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and invited her back Wednesday for a bill-signing ceremony. Pelosi announced Thursday that she tested positive for the coronavirus. Eleven of Biden’s recent events have been indoors — typically, but not always, the smaller ones. Seven have been outside. One — a packed celebration of the Affordable Care Act featuring former president Barack Obama — was initially set to be outside but moved indoors amid poor weather in Washington. Obama had covid in mid-March. So far, all of the publicly announced cases among lawmakers and top government officials in Washington have reportedly been mild. Democratic leaders have wholeheartedly embraced vaccines, boosters and even second boosters, providing them protections even as many of them have dropped masking and social distancing. The Biden administration has argued that even though the virus continues to circulate, most people who avail themselves of vaccines, boosters and newly available antiviral medications are protected from serious disease. When the last month is taken into account, Biden has come in contact with at least four people who tested positive either shortly after, or right before, interacting with him. “There were clear ways to make this safer, which should have been done,” said Abraar Karan, an infectious-disease physician at Stanford University. “One thing people need to realize is that the more potentially infectious hosts that are gathered at a single indoor event, the higher the chance of an outbreak as it only takes one person.” “I think it’s just a matter of time before the president and/or the vice president contract the virus,” Reiner said, adding that the White House is almost anticipating it. “But better for an 80-year-old man not to acquire this virus.”Biden came into contact with Pelosi at least twice shortly before she announced her covid diagnosis Thursday. The pair embraced briefly at the Obama fete on Tuesday. (Pelosi didn’t attend the Gridiron dinner.) The second contact came Wednesday afternoon, when Pelosi was invited back to the White House to watch as Biden signed into law the Postal Service Reform Act of 2022. She stood over him, and the two spoke briefly. Biden momentarily laid his hand on her wrist as he said something to her. A series of people who Biden interacted with came down with covid, including White House press secretary Jen Psaki, principal deputy press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin. The new CDC guidance hides the true risks to individuals.But the shift has alarmed some advocates. For instance, while Walensky on Friday touted a map that the “community level” of covid is low in D.C., the agency also says that the city is still facing “high transmission” of the virus. NN: Its political. Biden is in big trouble at the polls. SO they have no choice politically but to open her up…….. Another wave is comming

Most Treasurys were under pressure early Friday, pushing up the yield on the 10-year note for a sixth straight day, as investors assess the Federal Reserve’s likely policy path. Investors this week were digesting the Federal Reserve’s plans to begin unwinding its balance sheet, with minutes of the March policy meeting on Wednesday offering details. It showed policy makers want to reduce the balance sheet by up to $95 billion a month after a three-month phase-in. The process could potentially begin in May, but policymakers have yet to make a final decision, the minutes said. Worries grow that 8% inflation, more Fed comments on balance-sheet runoff could ‘scare the bond market witless again’ Yields at the long end of the yield curve have risen over the course of the week, while investors have snapped up shorter-dated maturities, pulling down the yield of the 2-year Treasury note. That’s undone a brief inversion of the yield curve that saw the 2-year yield trade above the 10-year. Persistent inversions of that portion of the curve are seen as a significant recession warning signal. Investors continue to monitor developments in the Russia-Ukraine war. A Russian missile attack on a train station in eastern Ukraine killed more than 30 people and injured more than 100, Ukrainian officials said. NN: The yield cure has inverted. We got out of our Zeroes at 1.80%. Now they are 2.75%.  Normally we would start averaging in at this point. We are going to start operations over 3%. The Fed is going to raise rates Bases Fed Funds to 5% to 6%.