Author: BlackMask Financial

LONDON (AP) — The prevalence of COVID-19 in the U.K. has reached record levels, with about 1 in 13 people estimated to be infected with the virus in the past week, according to the latest figures from Britain’s official statistics agency. Some 4.9 million people were estimated to have the coronavirus in the week ending March 26, up from 4.3 million recorded in the previous week, the Office for National Statistics said Friday. The latest surge is driven by the more transmissible omicron variant BA.2, which is the dominant variant across the U.K. Hospitalizations and death rates are again rising, although the number of people dying with COVID-19 is still relatively low compared with earlier this year. Nonetheless, the latest estimates suggest that the steep climb in new infections since late February, when British Prime Minister Boris Johnson scrapped all remaining coronavirus restrictions in England, has continued well into March. The figures came on the same day the government ended free rapid COVID-19 tests for most people in England, under Johnson’s “living with COVID” plan. People who do not have health conditions that make them more vulnerable to the virus now need to pay for tests to find out if they are infected. “The government’s ‘living with COVID’ strategy of removing any mitigations, isolation, free testing and a considerable slice of our surveillance amounts to nothing more than ignoring this virus going forwards,” said Stephen Griffin, associate professor at the University of Leeds’ medical school. “Such unchecked prevalence endangers the protection afforded by our vaccines,” he said. “Our vaccines are excellent, but they are not silver bullets and ought not to be left to bear the brunt of COVID in isolation.” More than 67% of people 12 years old and above in the U.K. have been vaccinated and had their booster or a third dose of the coronavirus vaccine. Beginning Saturday, parents can also book a low-dose vaccine for children between 5 to 12 years old in England. James Naismith, a biology professor at the University of Oxford, said he believed that except for those who are completely shielded or not susceptible to the virus, most people in the country would likely be infected with the BA.2 variant by the summer. “This is literally living with the virus by being infected with it,” he said.

China Finds New Virus Subtype as Daily Cases Exceed 13,000

https://youtu.be/9lt_VVCMIKs

LONDON, April 1 (Reuters) – Russia’s Gazprom said on Friday it was quitting its business in Germany at a moment of crisis in the vital energy ties between the two countries in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The gas giant gave no details or explanation of its decision to terminate its participation in Gazprom Germania GMBH and all of its assets, which include subsidiaries in Britain, Switzerland and the Czech Republic. Gazprom has been in the sights of European Union regulators for months over allegations, which it denied, that it was holding back gas that could have been released to lower soaring prices. Sources said this week that its offices in Germany had been raided by EU antitrust authorities. “I think this means Gazprom is drawing a curtain on being an active participant in the European gas market. Essentially it is going home because it no longer feels welcome,” said Katja Yafimava, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “I think Gazprom understands it is going to face a hostile political and regulatory environment in Europe and therefore wants to consolidate and conduct all of its business in one place – St Petersburg, most likely with the political support of the Russian government.” Yafimava said she did not expect any impact on Russian gas deliveries under long-term contracts. A market source in Germany with knowledge of the Russian gas business agreed with that assessment.

He said the main impact would be on gas storage as Astora, a subsidiary of Gazprom Germania, has facilities totalling 6 billion cubic metres of capacity in Germany and Austria.

It was unclear whether the German government would want to step in and mandate someone to run these, in order to achieve desired filling levels, and whether that could trigger legal opposition by Gazprom, the source said. Astora did not immediately reply to a request for comment. The move further complicates energy ties between Russia and Germany, a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to impose rouble pricing for gas on buyers from what Moscow considers unfriendly countries. Berlin rejects the change, as existing contracts are set in euros, and its economy minister said on Thursday it would not be “blackmailed by Putin”. Germany depends on Russian gas for about 40% of its needs but has joined Western sanctions against Moscow over Ukraine, including by halting the Nord Stream 2 Baltic gas pipeline designed to double the flow of Russian gas direct to Germany. German business daily Handelsblatt reported on Thursday that the German economy ministry was considering expropriating the Gazprom and Rosneft units in the country amid concerns about the security of energy supplies.  The Kremlin said on Friday that any such move would be a violation of international law. NN: This is war between the EU and America. It is a economic war for now…But it will not take much to escalate to the shooting kind. As a point in fact. It was the economic war with Japan where we sanctioned their oil that escalated…  Did you hear me the OIL .hey retaliated against the OIL embargo by bombing Pearl Harbor…… And as they say the rest is history.

The unprecedented decision by Biden to release 180 million barrels of oil from the country’s strategic petroleum reserve over the next six months has sent oil prices below $100. While plenty of upside risks remain, oil prices are on course to see their largest weekly decline in two years.

As you can see by the chart below US stocks of crude oil have been plunging.

From 540 million Barrels innventory June 2020 to under 400 million today. So as you can creepie Uncle Joes crude oil release ony get us back to where we were. BUT buy the fact its only 1 million barrles a day at best the gap will widen. Thats becuase the US economy is opening back up. At the present time oil supplied is 3 million barrles a day less then consumption that is set to increase as travel season approaches. That is why US inventories are below the 5 years below the 5 years average.

The decision by Biden to release 180 million barrels of oil from the SPR demonstrates just how desperate the situation in oil markets has become

In a week that saw OPEC+ implementing its latest production increases and the United States announcing an unprecedented SPR release, oil prices saw their largest weekly decline in more than 2 years. Whilst the OPEC+ decision was far from a surprise, the readiness of the Biden administration to tame runaway fuel prices pushed Brent futures closer to the $100 per barrel mark. Despite the scope and ambition of Biden’s latest move, it might not be enough to keep WTI below $100 per barrel as the sheer size of Russia’s potentially sanctionable 3 million b/d seaborne flow still looms over markets.

Europe continued to receive Russian natural gas via pipelines on Friday, even after Vladimir Putin threatened European countries that Moscow would cut off gas flows unless buyers complied with Russia’s gas-for-rubles-only demand. Gas flows via two of the three main pipelines from Russia to Europe—Nord Stream 1 to Germany and one through Ukraine and Slovakia—continued normally as of Friday, while the Yamal-Europe pipeline via Belarus to Poland and Germany was in a reverse flow from Germany to Poland. This has happened occasionally in recent weeks and months and is not reason alone to assume a major change in policy, according to Reuters. All in all, even after the March 31 deadline Russia has given to buyers to comply with the gas-for-rubles payment, flows to Europe have not stopped. Yet, concerns could intensify later this month because payments from customers for deliveries after April 1 should be made in the second half of April and in May. The Kremlin signaled on Friday that it would not cut off the supply immediately, Reuters reported. On Thursday, in the most serious threat to customers yet, Putin said that Moscow would halt active natural gas contracts if Russia’s customers failed to comply with the demand to pay in rubles for gas. Putin has set a March 31 deadline for the government, Gazprom, and the central bank of Russia to make the arrangements for payments in rubles for Russian gas from the so-called “hostile” countries. Under Putin’s orders, buyers should open accounts at Gazprombank to convert foreign currencies to rubles. Throughout this week, the Kremlin has issued unclear—and at times, contradictory—messages, while European economies started to activate emergency plans in anticipation of a potential disruption to gas supply from Russia. Germany and Italy—major European economies and major importers of Russian gas—said earlier this week that they had received assurances from Russia that they could continue paying in euros for the gas coming from Russia.  NN: This is not the end of it. Its simple Russia wants to get paid for its billions per day of gas, oil, metals, foods and fertilizers it sell. And if it cannot get paid in liquid funds it will not supply the above. Reality is the world cannot replace the critical goods Russia supplies. So a deal of some kind will be made.

The U.S. economy added 431,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. This number represents a decline from February, which saw an increase of a newly revised figure of 750,000 jobs, recently adjusted by 72,000 from the originally reported 678,000. Notable job gains continued in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and manufacturing in February. Overall, job growth averaged 562,000 per month in the first quarter of 2022, the same as the average monthly gain for 2021. However, employment is down by 1.6 million, or 1.0 percent, from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Employment in retail trade increased by 49,000 in March, with gains in general merchandise stores (+20,000) and food and beverage stores (+18,000). Health and personal care stores lost 5,000 jobs. Retail trade employment is 278,000 above its level in February 2020. As for unemployment, the number of people without a job decreased by 318,000 to 6 million in March. These measures are little different from their values in February 2020 (3.5% and 5.7 million, respectively) prior to the coronavirus pandemic. In March, 2.5 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic—that is, they did not work at all or worked fewer hours at some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey due to the pandemic. This measure is down from 4.2 million in the previous month. The number of job leavers, or those who have voluntarily quit their jobs, fell by 176,000, to 787,000 in March. The same report also showed that average hourly earnings rose by 13 cents to $31.73 in March, marking little change from the $31.58 in February. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.6%. NN: The recovery from the pandemic lockdown is in effect. This means the FED  is going to have increase rates even more to out out the infation firce stom they have started.

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Russia accounted for 39.5% of crude oil imports into Germany in January, official data showed on Friday, underlining the big role Moscow plays in raw materials deliveries to Europe’s biggest economy. Import volumes in January rose 8.5% over a year earlier amid recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic while the bill was up 85.7% due to higher prices, statistics from the BAFA foreign trade office showed. BAFA releases import data with a two-month delay so the impact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February and efforts to punish Moscow for it actions is not reflected. January oil volumes increased to a total 7.0 million tonnes from 6.5 million in the same month a year earlier. Germany spent 3.9 billion euros ($4.30 billion) on crude imports in the month, compared with 2.1 billion euros a year earlier. Prominent individual suppliers after Russia were the United States (13.9%) and Kazakhstan (12.2%). These were followed by Britain and Norway which, if counted together as North Sea sources, amounted to 19% of the total, while imports from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) contributed 12.6%. The average price paid per tonne on the border rose by 71% from a year ago, standing at 560.08 euros. Even before oil prices surged since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February and western countries responded with sanctions, costs had been up on supply cuts made by producers, demand recovery and a switch to some more oil use in power generation to replace tight coal and gas. Crude prices fell heavily this week from post-invasion levels as the U.S. planned huge releases of reserves and producers aimed for more output. NN: the US release from the strategic stock pile, if it is usable will not be enough to replace Russian imports into the US never mind European imports…

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – With Russia threatening to cut off the supply of vital gas and oil, European governments are dusting off rationing plans that bring back memories of the 1973 energy crisis. Are Europeans heading for car-free Sundays, dimmer lights and what felt like government-mandated bedtime as TV broadcasts ended early – last seen at the time of the Arab embargo? Probably not because that, and more recent episodes, show companies are quick to adapt, meaning the hit to the euro area’s economic output may be smaller than 1% on some estimates. And governments have also learned that imposing austerity measures like fuel rationing at the pump will yield little if the population doesn’t support them. So they are likely to go for something more consensual, such as getting households to turn down their thermostats or ease up on the gas pedal. Still, choosing which industries should get their energy supply cut will be a thorny political decision, forcing governments to resort to the kind of ruthlessness normally reserved for wartime. While Europe might just about replace its imports of Russian crude with other sources, it’s unlikely to be able to do so with gas any time soon. This means a rationing of gas is certain if Russia turns off the taps in retaliation for sweeping economic sanctions. But economists estimate the damage to economic growth would be small. The European Central Bank puts the hit from a 10% reduction in energy supplies on European companies at about 0.7% of the euro area’s gross value added, a measure of goods and services produced in the bloc. This is in line with precedents both in Britain during the 1970s embargo and in Japan after the Fukushima nuclear disaster of 2011. Europe’s service-oriented economies are also likely to come off more lightly than manufacturing-heavy China when it went through its own power crunch last year. “Past episodes of energy rationing have not been as damaging as one might expect and firms have proved adept at achieving sizeable efficiency gains when required,” Capital Economics wrote.For example, pork exporter Danish Crown has started to retrofit some gas-fired production plants with diesel and sales of diesel generators in Denmark rose 300-400% in March. Even for Germany, the western European country most reliant on Russian energy, the impact of an 8% cut to oil, gas and coal consumption would lower GDP by 1.4%, according to a paper by the ECONtribute network of economists. Of course, there are more pessimistic scenarios. Nomisma Energia estimates the Italian economy, which also depends on Russia for its energy, would suffer a 5.6% hit if gas supplies from Russia fell by roughly half, assuming some gains in efficiency but no switch to alternative sources. Today’s rationing strategies are mostly intended to spare households and concentrate any pain on companies, starting with those that can switch to other energy sources. This is a key lesson learned from the 1970s. The two European countries that imposed fuel rationing for the population – Sweden and the Netherlands – had to quickly change course due to public backlash. Instead, most governments at the time let the price of fuel rise, automatically depressing demand. And they focussed on measures the population saw as more equitable, such as lower speed limits and more frequent public transport. “Can rationing work? It’s a function of the public’s willingness to support it,” said Alan Pisarski, who helped shape the U.S. strategy to deal with the 1973 oil embargo. He said Europe should focus on convincing people to turn down their heating – a campaign already underway in some countries. NN: If the ha ha ha global emergency stockpile release is going to work why are they ta;ling about rationing… Do you think maybe just maybe they are bullshitting us.

(Reuters) – Russia’s Gazprom said on Friday that its natural gas exports outside former Soviet Union countries fell to 38.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) in the quarter ended March 31, down 27.1% from a year earlier. It said its gas output for the quarter was unchanged at 135 bcm. NN: that missing gas has to be made up somehow. This is getting uglier by the day. You will see spot energy shortages. Including natural gas, gasoline, diesel fuel and electricity