Author: BlackMask Financial

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Kiev: Russia’s claims of progress in talks not true

Russia has asked its neighbor never to join Western NATO’s military alliance.

Moscow:

Russia’s top negotiator in talks with Ukraine on Friday said Moscow and Kiev had brought their positions “as close as possible” on a proposal to allow Ukraine to become a neutral state.The Kremlin said on Wednesday that a neutral Ukraine along the lines of Sweden or Austria was discussed during talks with Kiev to end three weeks of a Russian military operation there. But Ukraine rejected the proposal, saying it wanted to guarantee its security through international forces. “The subject of Ukraine’s neutral status and non-accession to NATO is one of the main points of the talks, this is the point where the parties have brought their positions as close as possible,” said Russian chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky Friday. by Russian news agencies. But he added that there were “nuances” when it came to “security guarantees” requested by Ukraine. Russia, which has been conducting a military operation in Ukraine since February 24, has asked its neighbor never to join NATO’s Western military alliance, and has also demanded its “demilitarization” and “denazification.” Medinsky said on Friday that negotiators are “halfway” toward an agreement on the “demilitarization” of Ukraine. However, Mikhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who took part in the negotiations, said his country’s position had not changed. “Negotiation status. The Russian side’s statements are only their soliciting positions,” he wrote on Twitter. “All statements are intended, among other things, to arouse tension in the media. Our positions are unchanged. Ceasefire, withdrawal of troops & strong security guarantees with concrete formulas.” NN: Endless negotiations that go no where is a familiar ploy. It gets a PR moment. But the real deal is allows Russia to inflict more pain on the Ukraine. Test new weapons systems. The weaker the  Ukraine gets the more concessions Russian can extract. And remember the other former states are watching trembling in their boots…. The fact despite promises to the contrary no one is REALLY coming to the aid of Ukrainian with serious military aid. You may hear the false claims of impeding victory by the Ukrainians… Do not buy into that bullshit. Putin is not taking the cities for a reason. He will then have to  engage in fierce house to house warfare. Why go through that when he can bomb and rocket the Ukraine into submission. Everyday another pice of the Ukraine is destroyed. From ports to utilities to key infrastructure. He is splice and dicing the Ukraine into the dark ages….. He is doing this to soften the next countries he wants to at least neutralize if not destroy.. His message to the former Soviet states is simply…. NATO cannot and will not help you. Unless you believe sanctions and endless NATO and EU  press releases and committee meetings will stop bullets

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Ukraine War Hits World Economy Like an Earthquake, IMF Head Says

The conflict will lead to lower growth and faster inflation worldwide, Kristalina Georgieva says The war in Ukraine is like a powerful earthquake that will have ripple effects throughout the global economy, especially in poor countries, according to the head of the International Monetary Fund. The conflict will lead to lower growth and faster inflation worldwide, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Friday on an IMF panel about the lender’s strategy to support fragile and conflict-affected nations. Countries, businesses and households will face more serious debt problems after a jump in borrowing during the first year of the pandemic, she said. Ukraine and Russia together account for more than a quarter of the global trade in wheat, and a fifth of corn sales. The longer Russian forces remain in Ukraine, the longer tractors and combines to harvest the nation’s crops stay idle, threatening food security far beyond the region, Georgieva said War in Ukraine could cut 1% off global growth this year, boost inflation: OECd. They may already be happening’: Canada at higher risk of cyberattacks from Russian hackers after siding with Ukraine. “We would have some very significant problems that would be particularly difficult for fragile states,” Georgieva said. The world tends to focus on “front-page issues, and not on this second- and third-order-of-impact consequences,” she said. The IMF has a duty to “keep that full picture so that actions can be taken preemptively rather than responding at a much higher cost to the problem when it occurs,” Georgieva said. In a blog post earlier this week, IMF economists laid out some of the ways that tremors from the war could spread through the world economy. They highlighted risks including unrest in regions like the Middle East and Africa, triggered by higher food costs, and fiscal strains in Europe where spending on energy security and defense is set to rise. NN: Coupled with run away inflation before Putin;s Plunge we were headed for a recession… Now its a depression

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Retreat from Russia riddled with risks for Western banks

LONDON, March 18 (Reuters) – As they switch off the lights in Moscow, the world’s top banks face a risk-ridden retreat, juggling obligations to anxious clients and staff while complying with sanctions that have rewritten the rules of doing business in Russia. There is a growing realisation that these sanctions are likely to remain long-term, industry sources told Reuters, which means strategic not just tactical decisions are needed as executives look to protect hard-won improvements to their credibility since the global financial crisis. Citigroup, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have committed to helping clients with the complex task of unwinding their Russian operations, whilst at the same time supporting the relocation of staff who wish to leave. “(President Vladimir) Putin has fewer and fewer ways to hit back, he’s in a corner and these people could end up as pawns,” one senior compliance executive at a large U.S. bank said of the effects of Western sanctions on Russia. But the sweeping scope of these sanctions mean banks will need more rather than less manpower in order to ramp up client screening and avoid potentially costly financial penalties for any violations. In a sign of both the immediate strain and the prospect of sustained pressures, alerts about potentially problematic transactions at one institution rose by 50-60% on the first day sanctions were introduced, one source told Reuters. “That must suggest that their operational teams are at least 50-60% smaller than they need to be at this time, so that is definitely a concern,” one of the sources said. While Citi, JPMorgan and Goldman have all closed their doors to new business in Russia, they have declined to comment on whether they might surrender their potentially lucrative Russian banking licenses in the longer term. Around half of the 80 Goldman employees in Moscow have moved or are relocating to Dubai, three sources familiar with the matter said, but the Wall Street firm’s Russia head is remaining in the Russian capital, one source said. JPMorgan has around 160 staff in Moscow, where it has been for 50 years, and a large percentage are Russian nationals who will remain, another source familiar with the matter said. Citi, which had put its consumer business in Russia up for sale before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is also mothballing its institutional and wealth management businesses. Citi, Goldman and JPMorgan declined to comment. Asset management firms such as BlackRock and PIMCO will be relying on banks to help mitigate losses on tens of billions of dollars of Russian holdings when trading resumes.Italy’s UniCredit has said it may need to write off 7.4 billion euros in a worst-case winding down of its Russian business, while CEO Andrea Orcel warned that “disentangling” from the country was a huge task. Moody’s, Fitch and S&P Global have slashed their scores on Russia by several notches since the war with Ukraine began, putting the sovereign deep into “junk” territory. Deutsche Bank abruptly changed course after stinging criticism from some investors and politicians, after initially saying it planned to maintain ties with Russia. And Austria’s Raiffeisen, one of the European banks most exposed to Russia, said it was studying a possible withdrawal after earlier saying it had no plans to. NN: Banks and funds and corporations have a 2 trillion dollar exposure to Russia…….. They are fucked. Sanctions are backfiring and may end up giving us  a Lehman moment and a 2008 style wipe out…..

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Russian finance ministry says it has met coupon payment obligations in full

Russia’s finance ministry has said that the coupon payment order on its sovereign eurobonds has been executed, according to a March 17 report by Tass. Russia was due to pay interest payments on March 16 on two US-dollar-denominated eurobonds, with a 30-day grace period to make the payments in US dollars. Previously  Finance Minister Anton Siluanov confirmed that all the while the FX/gold reserves remain sanctioned, Russia could pay its foreign debt obligations in rubles as per the decree signed by President Vladimir Putin. Paying foreign currency obligations in rubles would constitute a sovereign default event, the rating agencies have warned. According to the latest report, it seems that the finance ministry executed the payment in foreign currency after all.

“The Ministry of Finance of Russia informs that the payment order concerning the coupon payment on the Russian Federation external bonds with the term of maturity in 2023 in the total amount of $117.2mn sent to the foreign correspondent bank on March 14 2022 was executed,” the statement says, as cited by Tass.

The finance ministry added that it will “separately notify” once the funds are credited to the eurobonds payment agent, the London branch of Citibank. Kommersant daily specified that the payment would be executed under a licence of the US Department of Treasury, which allows investors to receive debt payments on Russian sovereign eurobonds until at least May 25 2022.According to the Financial Times citing unnamed sources, JPMorgan processed the interest payments from the Russian government after consulting the USDT to make sure it was able to make the payment without contravening US sanctions. JPMorgan is now reportedly set to pass the $117mn in coupon payments to Citigroup. Russian bonds rallied as investors grew more confident Moscow will continue to service its $38.5bn of foreign debt. The price of a dollar bond maturing in 2043 climbed to 47 cents on the dollar from 38 cents on March 16 and as little as 20 cents a week ago.   NN: Putin does it again. He threw the ball into Biden’s court… What the fuck does a lefty know about business. If the payment to mostly US bond holders is not made its not on him. He sent the money IN DOLLARS now its up to US authorities to decide if they will let the custodial agent make the payment. Please note its the usual assholes buying very shaky debt to try to improve their yields….. the fact that they will never be paid back is a issue happy fund investors will never know. Most people spend more time reading the ingredients on their cereal box then the documents from these dodge funds. The hall of shame includes Pimco, Fidelity, Black Rock and may many retirement funds….. Have a nice day!

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Fed not just behind the curve on inflation problem — ‘it’s not even on the curve,’

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: I want to continue the market conversation now and welcome to the show Chris Brightman CEO and chief investment officer at Research Affiliates. So Chris, it’s turning out to be a pretty volatile week for Wall Street. Do you think it’s going to continue for the rest of the year? And if so, how are you going to play the volatility card to your advantage?

CHRIS BRIGHTMAN: Yes, I think increased volatility in the months and maybe even the years ahead is likely less to do with the virus and Omicron and more to do with the fact that the Fed is behind the curve on inflation.

– And, sir, I want to ask you, how surprised were you that Chair Powell made this sort of decision that the Fed would consider tapering more quickly? The timing to me is very curious. So it comes on the heels of this variant that’s just emerged. We’ve seen, you know, the prices of things like iron ore and corn fall, lumber fall. So why is he suddenly jumping on the bandwagon that we’ve all been on for the longest time saying it’s time to halt inflation? Is it curious to you at all?

CHRIS BRIGHTMAN: Well I’m not at all surprised that the Fed has pivoted to recognize that we’ve got an inflation problem. I guess the surprising thing is that it has taken them as long as it has. I mean, it’s pretty obvious what happened. We’ve been running, if not in name, in practice, MMT, basically coordinating monetary and fiscal policy, coordinating the activities of the Fed and the Treasury to wire transfer huge amounts of money into bank accounts. And that’s created a huge increase in demand. And supply is not that elastic and so you have constrained supply, a huge increase in demand, a classic recipe for inflation.

I worry that tapering– quantitative easing is not going to do the trick. I mean, quantitative easing didn’t create inflation. And it really doesn’t because it’s just shuffling one government claim for another government claim on the balance sheet of banks who have enormous amounts of excess reserves. It can cause liquidity problems. And, you know, that’s a concern that we could have a market problem if we have problems in the plumbing system. But it’s not going to fix inflation. NN:  Putin’s  oil card will be played. Peace in the Ukraine is not even close…. The markets especially the Algo guys do not know how to play this.. GOOD we do!  So Biden cut off Starbucks chocolate flavored coffee and big Macks… BooHoo!  And Putin cuts off Potash, Uranium, Nickel, Palladium, Platinum, Oil and Natural Gas… Who do you think will win?

Continue reading “Fed not just behind the curve on inflation problem — ‘it’s not even on the curve,’”

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Oil Market Report – March 2022 – Analysis – IEA

  • Surging commodity prices and international sanctions levied against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine are expected to appreciably depress global economic growth. As a result, we have revised down our forecast for world oil demand by 1.3 mb/d for 2Q22-4Q22, resulting in 950 kb/d slower growth for 2022 on average. Total demand is now projected at 99.7 mb/d in 2022, an increase of 2.1 mb/d from 2021.
  • The prospect of large-scale disruptions to Russian oil production is threatening to create a global oil supply shock. We estimate that from April, 3 mb/d of Russian oil output could be shut in as sanctions take hold and buyers shun exports. OPEC+ is, for now, sticking to its agreement to increase supply by modest monthly amounts. Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE hold substantial spare capacity that could immediately help to offset a Russian shortfall.
  • Global refinery throughput estimates for 2022 have been revised down by 860 kb/d since last month’s Report as a 1.1 mb/d reduction in Russian runs is not expected to be fully offset by increases elsewhere. In 2022, refinery intake globally is projected to rise by 2.9 mb/d year-on-year to 80.8 mb/d. Despite a downgrade to demand, product markets remain tight with further stock draws expected throughout the year.
  • OECD total industry stocks were drawn down by 22.1 mb in January. At 2 621 mb, inventories were 335.6 mb below the 2017-2021 average and at their lowest level since April 2014. Industry stocks covered 57.2 days of forward demand, down by 13.6 days from a year earlier. Preliminary data for the US, Europe and Japan indicate that industry stocks decreased by a further 29.8 mb in February.
  • As this Report went to print, ICE Brent oil futures slid to around $100/bbl after touching an intraday high of nearly $140/bbl on 8 March. Prices jumped from $90/bbl in early February following the invasion of Ukraine and as supply concerns mounted. Prices have eased again on economic concerns, surging Covid cases in China and traders reducing positions due to extreme volatility.

Faced with what could turn into the biggest supply crisis in decades, global energy markets are at a crossroads. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought energy security back to the forefront of political agendas as commodity prices surge to new heights. While it is still too early to know how events will unfold, the crisis may result in lasting changes to energy markets.

The implications of a potential loss of Russian oil exports to global markets cannot be understated. Russia is the world’s largest oil exporter, shipping 8 mb/d of crude and refined oil products to customers across the globe. Unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia to date exclude energy trade for the most part, but major oil companies, trading houses, shipping firms and banks have backed away from doing business with the country. For now, we see the potential for a shut-in of 3 mb/d of Russian oil supply starting from April, but losses could increase should restrictions or public condemnation escalate.

Russian oil continues to flow for the time being due to term deals and trades made before Moscow sent its troops into Ukraine, but new business has all but dried up. Urals crude is being offered at record discounts, with limited uptake so far. Some Asian oil importers have shown interest in the much cheaper barrels, but are for the most part sticking to traditional suppliers in the Middle East, Latin America and Africa for the bulk of their purchases.

Refiners, particularly in Europe, are scrambling to source alternative supplies and risk having to reduce activity just as very tight oil product markets hit consumers. There are scant signs of increased supplies coming from the Middle East, or of a significant reallocation of trade flows. The OPEC+ alliance agreed on 2 March to stick with a modest, scheduled output rise of 400 kb/d for April, insisting no supply shortage exists. Saudi Arabia and the UAE – the only producers with substantial spare capacity – are, so far, showing no willingness to tap into their reserves.

Prospects of any additional supplies from Iran could be months off. Talks over a nuclear deal that paves the way for sanction relief have apparently stalled just before the finish line. Should an agreement be reached, exports could ramp up by around 1 mb/d over a six-month period. Outside of the OPEC+ alliance, growth will come from the US, Canada, Brazil and Guyana, but any near-term upside potential is limited.

In the absence of a faster ramp up in production, oil stocks will have to balance the market in the coming months. But even before Russia’s attacks on Ukraine, the industry’s oil inventories were depleting rapidly. At the end of January, OECD inventories were 335 mb below their five-year average and at eight-year lows. IEA emergency stocks will provide a welcome buffer, and member countries stand ready to release more oil from strategic reserves if and when needed, in addition to the 62.7 mb of crude and products already pledged.

Surging oil and commodity prices, if sustained, will have a marked impact on inflation and economic growth. While the situation remains in flux, we have lowered our expectations for GDP and oil demand in this Report. We now see oil demand growing by 2.1 mb/d on average in 2022, a downgrade of around 1 mb/d from our previous forecast. There are actions governments and consumers can take to cut short-term demand for oil more rapidly to ease the strains and the IEA will publish recommendations for how to do so later this week. The current crisis comes with major challenges for energy markets, but it also offers opportunities. Indeed, today’s alignment of energy security and economic factors could well accelerate the transition away from oil.

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who says global rise in covid cases tip of iceberg

Figures showing a global rise in Covid-19 cases could herald a much bigger problem as some countries also report a drop in testing rates, the World Health Organisation said on Tuesday, warning nations to remain vigilant against the virus. After more than a month of decline, Covid-19 cases started to increase around the world last week, the WHO said, with lockdowns imposed in Asia and China’s Jilin province as countries battle to contain outbreaks. A combination of factors was causing the increases, including the highly transmissible Omicron variant and its cousin, the BA. 2 sub-variant, as well as the lifting of public health and social measures, the WHO said. “These increase are occurring despite reductions in testing in some countries, which means the cases we’re seeing are just the tip of the iceberg,” WHO’s head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters. Low vaccination rates in some countries, driven partly by a “huge amount of misinformation” also explained the rise, WHO officials said. New infections jumped by 8 per cent globally compared to the previous week, with 11 million new cases and a little more than 43,000 new deaths reported from March 7-13. It is the first rise since the end of January. The biggest jump was in the WHO’s Western Pacific region, which includes South Korea and China, where cases rose by 25 per cent and deaths by 27 per cent.Africa also reported a 12 per cent rise in new cases and a 14 per cent rise in deaths, while Europe registered a 2 per cent rise in cases but no jump in deaths. Other regions reported declining cases, including the Eastern Mediterranean, although this area reported a 38 per cent rise in deaths linked to a previous spike in infections.

A number of experts have raised concerns that Europe is facing another coronavirus wave, with cases rising since the beginning of March in Austria, Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and the UK.

The WHO’s Maria Van Kerkhove said at the briefing that BA. 2 appears to be the most transmissible variant so far. However, there are no signs that it causes more severe disease and no evidence that any other new variants are driving the rise in cases. The picture in Europe is also not universal. Denmark, for example, experienced a brief peak in cases driven by BA. 2 in the first half of February, but infections quickly declined. But experts have begun to say that the US could soon register a similar wave to that seen in Europe, potentially driven by BA. 2, with the lifting of restrictions and potential waning immunity from vaccines given several months ago. “I agree with the easing of restrictions, because you can’t think of it as an emergency after two years,” said Antonella Viola, professor of immunology at Italy’s University of Padua. “We just have to avoid thinking that Covid is no longer there and therefore maintain the strictly necessary measures, which are essentially the continuous monitoring and tracking of cases, and the maintenance of the obligation to wear a mask in closed or very crowded places.” NN: How long can you stay on emergency footing… After a while fatigue sets in. The solution is do not make it an emergency. Make masking up and avoidance of crowds and vitamin up part of your daily routine….. Have your antivirals at your disposal. And consider a booster shot after 5 months… How do you make infections go down… Simple stop testing. And how do you make hospitalizations go down…. Simple you forget to count them

 

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IEA fears global oil supply ‘shock’ over Russia sanctions

The world could face its biggest oil supply “shock” in decades as major crude exporter Russia is hit by sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, the International Energy Agency warned Wednesday.The Paris-based agency, which advises developed countries on energy policy, lowered its forecast for international oil demand for 2022, saying surging commodity prices and sanctions on Russia are expected to “appreciably depress global economic growth”. “Faced with what could turn into the biggest supply crisis in decades, global energy markets are at a crossroads,” the IEA said in a monthly report. “While it is still too early to know how events will unfold, the crisis may result in lasting changes to energy markets,” it said. Russia, the world’s biggest exporter of oil, has been hit with a slew of international sanctions over the war in Ukraine, which sent oil prices soaring. While the measures exclude the energy market, the IEA said major oil companies, trading houses, shipping firms and banks have “backed away from doing business with the country”. The United States and Britain have announced their own bans on Russian oil imports.

“The implications of a potential loss of Russian oil exports to global markets cannot be understated,” the IEA said.

“The prospect of large-scale disruptions in Russian production due to wide-ranging sanctions as well as decisions by companies to shun exports after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine is threatening to create a global oil supply shock,” it said. The agency said Russian oil production could fall by three million barrels per day from April and could worsen if “restricions or public condemnation escalate”. There are also “scant signs of increased supplies coming from the Middle East, or of a significant reallocation of trade flows”, it said. The agency lowered its forecast for demand growth by nearly one million barrels per day. It now expects world oil demand to grow by 2.1 million barrels a day to total 99.7 million barrels per day this year. OPEC, the Saudi-led cartel of major oil producers, on Tuesday maintained its forecast for 2022 demand growing by 4.2 million barrels per day. But the group warned that its forecast was “subject to change in the coming weeks, when there is more clarity on the far-reaching impact of the geopolitical turmoil”. OPEC and allies including Russia have only modestly increased output in recent months. Crude prices soared to a 14-year high close to $140 Bases BRENT following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but fell back under $100 this week. NN: Sanctions against Russia are a double edged sword that cuts both ways.  Russia has made its point in the Ukraine…. Former soviet states will not put advanced NATO weapons on their territory…. Now to his next tacit. He wants sanctions lifted. So you sanction me I sanction you specifically oil and natural gas to Europe. Lest you forget Russia is the worlds largest oil and natural gas EXPORTER. And Europe made the fatal decision to destroy their oil industry and rely upon Russia for 50% of their energy needs. As oil prices resume their climb and rise this time to $150 a barrel the screams of pain will be heard around the world. And the west will cave in. They will agree to “modify” their sanctions and Russia theirs.  If you want a biblical reference start reading Ezekiel from chapter 30 onward…

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Oil Prices Continue To Fall As EIA Reports Crude Inventory Build

  • Gasoline inventories shed 3.6 million barrels in the week to March 11.
  • Middle distillate inventories rose by 300,000 barrels in the week to March 11.
  • EIA: Crude oil inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels.

Crude oil prices moved lower today after the Energy Information Administration reported an inventory build of 4.3 million barrels for the week to March 11. This compared with a draw of 1.9 million barrels for the previous week and an American Petroleum Institute estimate of an inventory build of 1.867 million barrels for the week to March 11. In fuels, the Energy Information Administration reported a mixed picture. Gasoline inventories shed 3.6 million barrels in the week to March 11, which compared with a decline of 1.4 million barrels for the previous week. Gasoline production averaged 9.4 barrels daily last week, which compared with 9.6 million barrels daily a week earlier. Middle distillate inventories rose by 300,000 barrels in the week to March 11, which compared with a decline of 5.2 million barrels for the previous week. Middle distillate production averaged 4.9 million barrels daily, which compared with 4.6 million barrels daily a week earlier. Middle distillate production globally has come into the spotlight recently due to the tightening supply of diesel fuel, which is adding to inflationary pressures by making freight transport costlier. Refineries in the United States processed an average of 15.6 million barrels of crude daily in the week to March 11, which compared with 15.4 million bpd in the previous week. Imports stood at 6.4 million bpd, which compared with 6.3 million bpd a week earlier. The average price for gasoline in the United States remains over $4.30 per gallon, with the price for diesel fuel at over $5.10. International oil prices, meanwhile, have declined substantially from the multi-year highs reached earlier this month, mostly on the latest demand scare after China reported a spike in new Covid infections and locked down one of its biggest industrial hubs, Shenzhen. NN: The oil market is very volatile.Eventually we will see oil magically appearing. No one is going to stop two things from happening. Demand destruction and oil production growth. By year end oil will be below $60.

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Stocks Jump Amid Ukraine Talks Before Fed Decision

Stocks rallied after reports that talks among Russia and Ukraine are progressing. Treasuries and the dollar retreated before the Federal Reserve policy decision. Oil fell.The S&P 500 climbed after the Financial Times reported that Russia and Ukraine have made significant progress on a neutrality plan to end the war, citing three people involved in the negotiations. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 outperformed major benchmarks, while U.S.-listed Chinese shares soared after the Asian nation made a strong vow to ease regulatory crackdowns. Treasury two-year yields traded above 1.85 per cent.A proposal for Ukraine to become a neutral country but retain its own armed forces “could be viewed as a certain kind of compromise,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday, hinting at possible progress in peace negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy delivered an emotional address to the U.S. Congress, appealing for help from Americans to fend off the Russian invasion. Growth in U.S. retail sales slowed in February after surging a month earlier, while homebuilder sentiment fell in March to a six-month low. The figures come ahead of a Fed rate decision later Wednesday, with policy makers expected to raise rates for the first time since 2018 in an effort to curb the hottest inflation in 40 years. At the same time, officials need to be cognizant of the impact of tighter monetary policy on economic growth. NN: No surprises here. The Fed blew it. We all remember transitory inflation. Now with the world in a stagflation they are in deep shit… This rate increase circus is just a floor show. This will be decided in the coming months and it will be ugly