US Secretary of State Marco Rubio shared an update on negotiations with Iran on Tuesday, confirming that the question of Hormuz remains open. “There has been progress in these talks, but not finality yet. We hope that will happen very shortly,” Rubio told reporters at a presser in Paraguay. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Washington and Tehran may reach a deal on reopening the Strait as soon as today or tomorrow.
WTI dips 6% on reports of Hormuz demining
Crude oil prices continued their downward trajectory on Tuesday following rumors that Iran was thinking of permitting European countries to remove mines from the Strait of Hormuz as part of an agreement to normalize commerce in the vital waterway. Iran has “softened its stance” in private meetings regarding allowing foreign countries to take part in demining operations, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing diplomats familiar with the matter. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for deliveries in September tumbled 6.01% to go for $75.47 per barrel at 12:02 pm ET. A minute later, Brent for settlements in November plummeted 4.37%, selling for $77.55 per barrel.
NN: That’s a lot of blue sky. 18 times a deal announcement. Even if their is one it wont stick, 7 times attack was cancelled!
US President Donald Trump is pushing Iran to reach a deal with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz as soon as Tuesday, or face devastating air strikes. “I want to give them every last chance before decapitation,” Trump told reporters on Monday. “You’ll find out today or tomorrow. I mean, they’re going to go quickly, one way or the other. It’s not very complex.”
This is a “last chance” for Iran to come to an agreement, the president said, after he called off what he described as a major attack on the Islamic Republic over the weekend that would have likely involved Israel.
A diplomatic resolution appears to hinge on talks between Oman and Iran to get more ships sailing through the strait. There’s little sign of progress in those negotiations and Iran continues to take a hard line on the waterway. It insists it has the right to manage maritime traffic and attack vessels that try to sail through the chokepoint without seeking its permission. President Donald Trump said his latest offer of talks is a “last chance” for Iran after he called off an attack on the Islamic Republic. Bloomberg’s Stuart Livingstone-Wallace breaks down the latest developments. Iran’s stance underscores the difficulty Trump has faced in wrapping up a war he started in late February and that’s sent energy prices soaring, hurting the US leader and his Republican Party ahead of midterm elections in November. The chokepoint, a vital conduit for supplies of oil, liquefied natural gas and other commodities such as fertilizers, remains all but shut. Hardly any ships are sailing through, at least with their transponders turned on. Most that do are going on a northern route close to Iran’s shores with Iranian permission, or on a southern one nearby Omani territory. Trump said “there’s not going to be charging” for access to the strait, something Tehran has set as a key condition of any deal.
Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, warns oil prices could move sharply higher if the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz expands to the Red Sea, warning that the market has largely exhausted the buffers that helped contain the initial shock. McNally says China is beginning to increase crude imports again, the available reserve-release buffer is largely spent and refiners are running at precariously high utilization rates. Responding to President Trump’s assertion that the US does not need the Strait of Hormuz, McNally says that may be true in a physical sense but not in a price sense, because disruptions anywhere in the global oil market raise prices everywhere.
Fitch Group analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, outlined that they continue to believe a broader diplomatic understanding between the U.S. and Iran remains achievable during this quarter, which they said “would involve the opening of the Strait of Hormuz”.
The analysts warned in the report, however, that the outlook remains “highly fragile”.
“Diplomatic progress is likely to be punctuated by periodic military flare ups, while miscalculation by either side could trigger a renewed escalation,” they said.
“We therefore maintain a higher probability of a shift to a more severe conflict scenario than earlier in July, with escalation risks remaining significant despite the current pause in hostilities,” they added.
The BMI analysts noted in the report that the key issue to watch is the future governance of Hormuz. “Ongoing Iran-Oman discussions … suggest diplomatic efforts are underway to establish a post-conflict shipping framework,” they said. Although the analysts highlighted in the report that their base case remains that a preliminary deal will be reached in the third quarter, they revealed that they have now further increased the probability of their escalation scenario from 25 percent to 35 percent “amid growing military, diplomatic, and economic indicators of rising U.S.-Iran tensions”.
Sparta Commodities Aaron Kildow, that Brent futures “saw a nearly $32 per barrel range in the month of July”, which he pointed out was “the second largest monthly range since the war kicked off in March”. Kildow warned in this commentary that “the noose continues to slowly tighten as global demand exceeds supply” and said “tension is slowly building within some key exporting countries as their own inventories are becoming dangerously low”.
GivTrade Technical analyst Waleed noted that Brent and WTI recovered after a sharp sell-off “as doubts grew over whether Iran talks were making real progress”. “A credible deal could crush the geopolitical premium, but failed negotiations or fresh disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could send prices surging again,” he said.
Saxo Bank posted on its website, that October Brent bounced from Monday’s “steep sell-off” as U.S. President Donald Trump “called his latest offer on terms to Iran the country’s ‘last chance’. Saxo noted in this quick take that the September WTI front-month contract was less volatile, “bouncing slightly”.
Goldman Sachs team on Tuesday, Goldman Sachs analyssaid they estimate the fair value of Brent spot prices at around $80 per barrel based on their OECD commercial stocks counter, current OECD demand estimates, estimates of the long-term Brent anchor, and the historical relationship between stocks and spot prices (vs. long-dated prices). “This suggests that the market prices only a moderate risk premium despite still very high uncertainty about Mideast supply,” the analysts noted. The analysts revealed in the report that they assume Brent will stay in a $80-90 per barrel range “until either a confirmation of a new U.S.-Iran deal or a significant escalation in attacks and targets”.
They warned, however, that the physical oil market is tightening, and pointed out that their global visible stocks counter had reduced by 6.3 million barrels per day over the last two weeks.
This was likely driven by three key factors, according to the analysts – “lower flows from the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, lower Russian oil exports, and stronger Asian imports, including to China”.
NN: I am telling you disaster looms. Iran is not goimg to give up its ace in the hole.
In this next story Aramco warns:
Inventory renewal would take 18 months
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on Tuesday that replenishing the company’s oil inventories at a rate of 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) would take 18 months, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened immediately. Speaking to investors after Aramco’s quarterly earnings release, he said that the Middle East conflict continues to “aggravate the biggest supply shock in history.” Nasser stressed that Aramco continues to reroute oil via the East-West pipeline and optimize its flexibility. He added that the company is also increasing its refining capabilities in western Saudi Arabia by around 2 million bpd.
US President Donald Trump declared on Monday that newly planned talks with Iran were their final opportunity to sign an agreement, calling it their “last chance” to get a good deal and avoid US retaliation.”The leaders of many Gulf nations … they all wanted to give this a last chance. This is a last chance … This is a last chance for them to sign a good document,” Trump said while speaking to reporters in the Oval Office. He added that he expects negotiations about Iran’s nuclear program to begin “in the next day or two.”Earlier, Trump delayed planned military strikes against Iran to pursue a potential agreement, centering on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and constraints on Iran’s nuclear program, though Tehran has publicly denied holding direct negotiations with the United States.
NN: Lucky 7. Seven TACOES. Trump soya this is Iran’s last chance to make a deal. We shall see what we shall see what they do. And see if Trump Tacos again. The steaks are enormous. We are talking nothing short of a world wide energy crises induced depression. I am ready on all fronds to guide you in this crises. It could be our biggest and greatest trade ever.
Iran has rejected the latest US proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz until the complete end of the war, Hezbollah-linked news outlet Al-Mayadeen reported on Monday, citing an unnamed Iranian source. According to the report, Iran insisted that the Strait of Hormuz would not be reopened until the war had ended so maritime traffic restrictions might continue. The source also claimed that Washington had agreed to the closure of the southern maritime lane across the Strait, although no official confirmation has been issued.
NN: Rejected by Iran the latest US proposal…. I am shocked. As in the straits are STILL CLOSED! At WHAT POINT DO THE DICK HEADS WAKE UP AND REALIZE THE WORLD IS RUNNING OUT OF OIL. I am adamant their is no deal and will be no deal. Which means the biggest oil crises ever l is coming. Get this suppose i am full of shit and they get a deal and the oil starts flowing. Their will still not be enough oil for the coming high demand oil and natural gas high demand season.
Update: Time and venue for the resumption of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran have not yet been determined, Anadolu Ajansi reported on Monday. The news outlet cited a senior Pakistani official, who shared that no meeting between the representatives of the two countries has been scheduled in Islamabad, “at least in the next 24 hours.” The source also disclosed that both Pakistani and Qatari mediators are in contact with Washington and Tehran in order to determine when and where the new round of talks will take place. These claims came following US President Donald Trump’s announcement that peace talks would resume today, which Iran denied earlier today.
United States President Donald Trump said that new negotiations with Iran would be starting tomorrow afternoon, adding that the attack he called off this weekend “would have been the biggest since World War II.” “Now what we’re doing is, we are talking to them [Iran] in the form of a negotiation. It begins tomorrow afternoon, and we’ll see… I’d love to do that. It’ll save a lot of lives, a lot of unnecessary power, to be honest with you,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One.
NN: Another round of negotiations! Sure glad their will be hahahaha piece, Can i ask one question? What has 40 years of negotiating with Iran bought us?
We won every battle in Nam. We won every battle in Afghanistan. We lost both wars in the hahahaha peace negotiations. Iran is starting to look the same to me.
Iran: Currently no talks with US
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said on Monday that Tehran is not currently holding any talks with the United States. Speaking at a daily press briefing, Baghaei noted that Iran is negotiating with Oman on a temporary route that would allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. “As long as the United States continues its violations, there will naturally be no significant change in the situation in the Strait of Hormuz,” he stressed, adding that reaching a deal with Oman over a transit route would not be enough for reopening the critical waterway. The spokesperson’s remarks follow US President Donald Trump’s claims that negotiations with Iran will restart later today.
NN: They cannot even agree on when negotiations will start. Oil dropped 5 dollars on this hahahaha peace news. Someone is very confused and it ain’t me.
There is currently no agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, accepted by the Iranian authorities, Iran’s semi-official media outlet Fars News Agency reported on Sunday, citing a source close to the nuclear negotiating team and denying an earlier report that claimed that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi agreed to the mediators’ proposal for reopening the waterway.
“As long as the US continues its hostile actions, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and the passage of vessels will only be possible via the announced route and with the permission of the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] IRGC Navy,” an informed military source cited in the report claimed.
According to the previous report, the vessels would enter the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz from Iranian territorial waters and exit through Omani territorial waters.
NN: You can’t make a deal with liras thieves and murders. Stop trying! No good will come of it.
United States President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that he agreed to call off a large-scale attack on Iran “subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL,” adding that Israel agreed to join him “in this commitment.” “The U.S.A. is locked and loaded and ready to go against the Islamic Republic of Iran, at levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II. Despite this, we have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to,” Trump proclaimed. The deal, according to the US leader, would include a “complete and total” opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an “end to Iran’s nuclear threat.” Moreover, the American president claimed his cancellation of the strike was “for the future benefit of the world” and “survival” of a “successful and prosperous Iran.”
NN: I am sure glad their is a deal over the weekend calling for a hahahaha“complete and total” opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an “end to Iran’s nuclear threat.” . The oil market Friday rallied on the close on news of the attack. Now over the weekend Trump announced the attack has been called of …. again on the hahahaha NEW peace deal. Their is one little problem see next story
Iran rejects Trump’s claim it sought halt to attacks
Iranian military officials rejected United States President Donald Trump’s claim that Tehran had asked Washington to halt planned attacks, calling it “nothing more than another lie” and “a desperate attempt” to pressure Gulf leaders through threats, according to Iranian local news sources on Sunday. The officials said Iran’s forces remain “at the highest level of readiness” and are prepared “for every possibility.” They warned that if confrontation becomes unavoidable, “the battlefield will be decisive,” adding that “everyone will understand who holds the power and who will have the final say.” Earlier, Trump said he had agreed to cancel a large-scale attack on Iran after Tehran and other Middle Eastern countries allegedly asked the US to hold off. Separately, Al Mayadeen reported, citing its correspondent, that Vice President JD Vance and the US Army chief of staff urged Trump to abandon the strike plan, with concerns over missile stockpile shortages also said to have influenced the decision.
NN: Time to replace Vance who is a loser with Rubio. And we need to send a memo to the army chief oF staff Saying YOUR FIRED!!
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 7.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 404.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 7% below the five-year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.3 million barrels per day during which was 271 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 97.2% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.9 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased, averaging 5.4 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.7 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 124 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.7 million barrels per day, 6.9% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 659 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 98 thousand
barrels per day. Total motor gasoline inventories slightly increased from last week and are 6% below the five-year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased, while blending component inventories
decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels last week and are about 9% below the five-year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels from last week and are 34% above the five-year average for this
time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.7 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.3 million barrels per day, down by 2.3% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.9 million barrels per day, down by 0.3% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, up by 4.7% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 5.8% compared with the same four-week period last year.
