Author: BlackMask Financial

Jan 27 (Reuters) – Hedge funds that specialize in picking stocks started 2022 with losses, investors and research firms said this week as markets went on a rollercoaster ride fueled by fears of rising interest rates and geopolitical turmoil. Data from Morgan Stanley, which works with the world’s biggest and most powerful hedge funds, show that global hedge funds were off 3.1% in the first three weeks of January, according to a source with direct knowledge of the research. Morgan Stanley declined to comment. For U.S. based funds that pick stocks, the picture was bleaker with the average fund off 5.9%, according to the data which tracked returns in the first three weeks of the month and was released to clients on Tuesday. But hedge funds still outperformed the broader stock market S&P 500 Index which was off 7.4% during the first three weeks. Since then, market losses have grown, with the S&P now down 8.7%. Data from Hedge Fund Research show the HFRX Equity Hedge Index down 3.34% through the end of Tuesday. Markets have been on edge awaiting more details on when the Fed will raise rates and how the Russia-Ukraine tensions will play out. This year’s turmoil comes after steady stock market gains last year when the S&P 500 index was fueled by advances in technology stocks and gained 27%. “For a while investing in technology stocks was a great trade where you made easy profits,” said Max Gokhman, chief investment officer at hedge fund Alpha TrAI. “But now the Federal Reserve is pulling away the money and sending a clear messages that they won’t be fueling the stock market boom anymore.” But investors caution that early losses could be wiped away by nimble hedge funds if they begin betting that some stocks will go down and carefully select ones they think will go up. Billionaire hedge fund manager William Ackman may be among the first to have pounced on a name that sold off dramatically when he said on Wednesday that he bought a stake in Netflix worth more than $1 billion after the stock was pummelled. His fund lost 13.8% through Jan. 25, but he has been known to make well-timed bets that boost year end returns. NN: The trillions in unrealized loses has not begun to be disclosed……

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) ramped up in the final months of 2021, with still-solid consumer spending helping stoke growth and offset early negative impacts from the Omicron variant’s spread. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate of fourth-quarter GDP on Thursday. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

Growth in the fourth quarter rebounded more than expected from the third quarter’s disappointing rate of expansion, when GDP rose at a 2.3% annualized rate — its slowest since mid-2020.  But despite the brief deceleration in third-quarter GDP, economic growth throughout 2021 had been robust as vaccinations picked up across the country and stay-in-place behaviors began to abate. For the full-year 2021, GDP grew at a 5.7% rate, marking the fastest since 1984. And this marked a sharp reversal from the contraction seen in the economy in 2020, when GDP shrank by 3.4%.  A jump in consumer spending during this year’s record holiday shopping season helped contribute to the headline gain in the fourth quarter. As consumers attempted to get ahead of supply chain delays and out-of-stocks, spending was pulled forward from the typical holiday period of November and December to October. This helped to lift overall fourth-quarter consumption for the final three months of the year to a rate well above that from the third quarter, even as retail sales in December pulled back on a month-over-month basis. But even more notable during the quarter was the jump in private inventories, as companies worked to replenish supplies drawn down in the early phase of the reopening as demand soared. The build in private inventories contributed 4.9 percentage points to the headline 6.9% jump in GDP, and was led in turn by inventory investment by motor vehicle dealers, the BEA said in its report Other areas of the economy, however, served as drags to GDP. Government consumption expenditures subtracted about half of a percentage point from headline GDP, reflecting a “decrease in defense spending on intermediate goods. and services,” the BEA said. And government assistance payments also decreased during the second half of the year relative to the first, as COVID-related relief programs tapered off.  Net trade had a net neutral impact on GDP following five consecutive quarters of negative contribution, as a surge in imports — which subtracts from GDP — was offset by a rise in exports during the quarter.  Embedded in the report was also yet another sign of soaring inflation, with widespread supply shortages and elevated consumer demand pushing up prices.

The GDP price index soared by 6.9% — the most since 1981 — to exceed consensus estimates for a 6.0% gain. And core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) accelerated to reach a 4.9% quarter-over-quarter pace, compared to the third quarter’s 4.6% clip. 

And as usual, the latest quarterly GDP report serves as a backwards-looking indicator capturing the economic momentum heading into the first quarter of 2022. Given that the Omicron variant first discovered in the U.S. only very late in November, notable impacts from the virus were likely not reflected in the latest GDP print. Many economists are expecting to see the data reflect a deceleration in growth for the start of this year, as the further spread of Omicron dampened activity and compounded with other drags to the economy. Just earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for U.S. and global growth this year, citing ongoing supply chain challenges, lower expected fiscal stimulus after the collapse of President Joe Biden’s sweeping Build Back Better package, and the pullback of highly accommodative monetary policies from the Federal Reserve.  “The pace of economic momentum has slowed in recent weeks due to the impact from the Omicron variant,” Sam Bullard, Wells Fargo managing director and senior economist, wrote in a note ahead of Thursday’s report. “Add on the expiration of the monthly Child Tax Credit and ongoing challenges to the supply chain (labor, material and transportation), first quarter GDP growth looks to have decelerated substantially — our call 2.9%.”

Moscow/Brussels: NATO said on Monday it was putting forces on standby and reinforcing eastern Europe with more ships and fighter jets, in what Russia denounced as Western “hysteria” in response to its build-up of troops on the Ukraine border. The US Department of Defense in Washington said about 8,500 American troops were put on heightened alert and were awaiting orders to deploy to the region, should Russia invade Ukraine. Tensions are high after Russia massed an estimated 100,000 troops in reach of its neighbour’s border, surrounding Ukraine with forces from the north, east and south. Russia denies planning an invasion and Moscow is citing the Western response as evidence that Russia is the target, not the instigator, of aggression. President Joe Biden, pushing for transatlantic unity, held an 80-minute secure video call with a number of European leaders on Monday from the White House Situation Room to discuss the Ukraine crisis. Biden told reporters “I had a very, very, very good meeting” with the Europeans, which included the leaders of Germany, France, Italy, Britain and Poland. He said there was “total unanimity.” A White House statement said the leaders “discussed their joint efforts to deter further Russian aggression against Ukraine, including preparations to impose massive consequences and severe economic costs on Russia for such actions as well as to reinforce security on NATO’s eastern flank.” Welcoming a series of deployments announced by alliance members in recent days, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg earlier said NATO would take “all necessary measures.” “We will always respond to any deterioration of our security environment, including through strengthening our collective defence,” Stoltenberg said in a statement. He told a news conference that the enhanced presence on NATO’s eastern flank could also include the deployment of battlegroups in the southeast of the alliance. So far, NATO has about 4,000 troops in multinational battalions in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland, backed by tanks, air defences and intelligence and surveillance units. US officials said the Pentagon was finalising efforts to identify specific units that it could deploy to NATO’s eastern flank. One of the officials said up to 5,000 could be deployed, while a NATO diplomat said Washington was considering gradually transferring some troops stationed in western Europe to eastern Europe in the coming weeks. Denmark, Spain, France and the Netherlands were all planning or considering sending troops, planes or ships to eastern Europe, NATO said. Ukraine shares borders with four NATO countries: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. A Polish official said Warsaw would draw the line at sending troops to Ukraine. As tensions grow, Britain said it was withdrawing some staff and dependents from its embassy in Ukraine, a day after the United States said it was ordering diplomats’ family members to leave. US diplomats are being allowed to leave voluntarily. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused the West of “hysteria” and putting out information “laced with lies”. “As for specific actions, we see statements by the North Atlantic Alliance about reinforcement, pulling forces and resources to the eastern flank. All this leads to the fact that tensions are growing,” he said. “This is not happening because of what we, Russia, are doing. This is all happening because of what NATO and the US are doing and due to the information they are spreading.” Global stock markets skidded as the prospect of a Russian attack quashed demand for riskier assets such as bitcoin, and bolstered the dollar and oil. The rouble hit a 14-month low against the dollar, and Russian stocks and bonds tumbled. Russia has used its troop build-up to draw the West into discussions after presenting demands to redraw Europe’s security map. It wants NATO never to admit Ukraine and to pull back troops and weapons from former Communist countries in eastern Europe that joined it after the Cold War. Washington says those demands are non-starters but it is ready to discuss other ideas on arms control, missile deployments and confidence-building measures. Russia is awaiting a written US response this week after talks last Friday – the fourth round this month – produced no breakthrough. Asked whether he thought an invasion was imminent, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told broadcasters that intelligence was “pretty gloomy on this point” but that “sense can still prevail.” He repeated Western warnings that invading Ukraine would be “a painful, violent and bloody business” for Russia. The United States and the European Union, wary of Russia’s intentions since it seized Crimea and backed separatists fighting government forces in eastern Ukraine in 2014, have told Russia it will face crippling penalties if it attacks again. EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels warned Russia it would face “massive” consequences, but are divided over how tough to be on Moscow and did not say what the consequences might be. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told EU President Charles Michel, who was also on the call with Biden, that it was important for Kyiv that the EU showed unity. “Ukraine will not fall for provocations, and together with its partners, will remain calm and restrained,” his office said. The European Commission, the EU executive body, proposed a 1.2-billion euro ($1.36-billion) financial aid package to help Ukraine mitigate the effects of the conflict. A Russian delegation source said political advisers from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany would meet in Paris on Wednesday for talks on resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine, in which some 15,000 people have been killed since 2014. Previous efforts have failed to yield any breakthrough. NN: Their are to many unknowns to trade this. One we get some certainty we will be trading this…. Especially in oil. If their is a minor incursion we  get $100 oil and short. If we get a major attack by Putin you will see  $150 of and that we will pounce on

 

(Bloomberg) — The historic rebound in American stocks proved short-lived, with major averages slumping again as investors remained on edge over the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting stance and Russia’s saber-rattling against Ukraine Just a day after an almost incredible recovery for the S&P 500 from a 4% rout, the U.S. equity benchmark resumed its losses. While the gauge traded off its worst point of the day, it still headed toward the lowest level since October. The Nasdaq 100 tumbled about 3%. Amid violent equity swings, the Cboe Volatility Index extended its surge into a sixth consecutive day, and was poised for a one-year high. The dollar and Treasuries rose. The risk of a “growth shock” to equities is increasing, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists. Ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision that’s expected to point toward a rate hike in March, they warned that sharp monetary tightening to tame inflation could eventually have knock-on effects on economic activity, hurting stocks. The International Monetary Fund cut its world growth forecast for 2022, citing weaker prospects for the U.S. and China along with persistent inflation. NN: This is a market that is not trading its driven by the fast money algo guys. Its a trillion dollar computer game. Their is no reason to try and trade this. Stand aside wait to see the outcome of the FED and Putin. This is one market we do not want to be in. In a week or so we will know more.. By that time they will be out of bullettes.

EU has no plans to impose new sanctions against Russia, Borrell says

The head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, confirmed that the EU does not plan to announce any sanctions against the Russian Federation following the meeting of the union’s foreign ministers on Monday. RIA Novosti, 01/24/2022

NN: Its the same old mistake the Europeans made with Hitler. Putin is a major threat to Europe. Sooner or later Russia will makes it move on Europe. But for now he is hell bent on rebuilding the former Soviet Union. Putin is reading the tea leaves correctly. Europe has no balls. And the US is a toothless tiger. Wars are not fought with papers. Endless negotiations get you nowhere… Look at Iran and North Korea. The US cut and ran from Afghanistan…. Putin was watching.

As the omicron variant became the dominant strain in the U.S. this week, health care providers are left with fewer options to treat positive COVID-19 patients as most of the existing treatments have been found to be less effective in fighting off the new variant. Up until recently, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) had been distributing three types of COVID-19 antibody treatments, Regeneron monoclonal antibodies, Eli Lilly’s antibody treatments and GlaxoSmithKline’s sotrovimab monoclonal antibody. Regeneron gained national attention when former President Trump contracted COVID-19 and was treated with Regeneron under a “compassionate use program” that allowed rare, exceptional circumstances to use the treatment. However, as omicron emerged and scientists around the world scrambled to understand how current vaccines and available therapies could fight the new variant, Regeneron and Eli Lilly both announced their antibody treatments didn’t work as effectively in diffusing omicron.  On Dec. 16, Regeneron announced its antibody treatment had “diminished potency against omicron.” In a statement to a local Fox News station, Eli Lilly confirmed that its antibody treatments showed “reduced neutralization activity,” against omicron.  That leaves one COVID-19 treatment available to treat omicron infections, and in early December, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announced that its sotrovimab monoclonal antibody “retains in vitro activity against the full known omicron spike protein.” Meaning that GSK’s treatment could fight against all tested variants of COVID-19. It gained emergency use authorization by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in May this year. George Scangos, CEO of Vir, the company partnering with GSK to develop sotrovimab, told The New York Times that when developing their antibody treatment they looked at the blood of people who had survived the 2003 SARS epidemic, instead of those who survived COVID-19 infections. Through this method, they identified an antibody from SARS that could also protect against the coronavirus that caused COVID-19. “I think we got here not by good luck, but by a thoughtful process,” said Scangos. However, currently health care providers are left with slimmer treatment options, as HHS data indicates that as of Dec. 17 the government had stopped distribution of Regeneron and Eli Lilly’s COVID-19 treatments and had only shipped 55,000 GSK treatments. Since mid-September, the HHS had shipped 1.2 million doses of Regeneron to states and around 670,000 doses of Eli Lilly’s antibody treatment.

According to the Times, hospitals in New York have recently said they would also stop giving patients the two most commonly used antibody treatments, made by Regeneron and Eli Lilly.  

Ralph Madeb, New York Community Hospital’s co-chief medical officer said, “if I had a choice I would give GSK.” Supply of GSK’s sotrovimab monoclonal antibody is currently limited, but the White House is in discussions with the pharmaceutical company to secure more doses that could be delivered early next year, according to the Times. Along with sotrovimab, federal regulators are expected to authorize antiviral pills from pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and Merck, which would add to health care providers’ toolbelt of treatment options for COVID-19 patients.

Mosh part of our research staff is in siolation with symptoms. Mosh refused to get his 3d shot never min his fourth. After his second shot he became fixated on the rare Myocardial Infarction COVID-19 Vaccine Side Effect. Of course he was banned from the compound. The last time he was here (last week) he was not allowed to enter the  compound and he did not have on our “ugly” mask with the ULPA biolab filters we developed. He trusted the CDC guidelines to use the coffee filter SHIT N95 ha ah ha ha ha mask. In the strongset terms available to me i warned him. As is often the case with millennials he did not listen.Muttering something about he was staying away from people……. I guess that did not work out so well for him…… Friday he came down with symptoms and used one of our antigen test kits to confirm he is infected. He is very tired and has flue like symptoms. Mosh is severely overweight and pre diabetic. I AM VERY WORRIED. We do not require staff to be vaccinated it a personal choice. But we recommend vaccination, isolation, “ugly” mask and our immune system booster vitamins it in the strongest possible terms. Back to Mosh. We have our staff Doctor prescribe a 5 day course of Ivermectin AND we are striving to get him the only big pharma monoclonal antibody treatment that works. Sotrovimab by GlaxoSmithKline cost$3000 if you can find it. I am worried… I AM WORRIED. I take keeping you all healthy as Job1…. Job2 is making you wealthy.