United States Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the “risk of persistently high inflation has clearly risen.” Speaking before the US House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services, he noted that inflation is “clearly” connected to coronavirus pandemic-caused factors and that the vast majority of estimates say that it will go down in the second half of 2022. Previous projections predicted that demand would be strong, but underestimated the problems on the supply side, he revealed, adding that soaring demand can be attributed to both, the fiscal policy as well as a “quickly rebounding economy.” Powell also stated that wages moved up “significantly,” but not “at a troubling rate that would tend to spark higher inflation.” According to him, the US economic recovery has been the “strongest” among the world’s largest economies. NN: Slowly they turn……… Reality is the Fed has had a great big inflation problem for a very log time. After being in denial for the better part of a year they are now STARTING to face reality. The bigger they are the dumber they are. Big organizations by their very nature stifle the brilliant. Its how the big wigs at the top survive. They did not get their by their brilliance but by their treachery. Mankind pays a price for inept leadership. If you have any doubts look at the covid fiasco. Now wonder the public does not trust the CDC and the FDA. I have made a business and spent a life time in search of truth. Now being in the truth business will never make you rich. So i early on learned i could make a hell of a lot of money trading truth. AKA the fundamentals. My point of all this is the stock market is still in a fools paradise. The biggest bubble by any matrix you care to use. Truth is the Fed has lit off an inflation bubble market fire storm. And the system will force them to raise rates… Net result one of the biggest stock market crashes in history is coming…..
US closes lower, Dow plummets 460 pts…. Its the the new Omicron coronavirus variant
Major stock markets in the United States closed lower on Wednesday, as the country’s health agencies confirmed that the new Omicron coronavirus variant has been identified in California. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that the “risk of persistently high inflation has clearly risen,” while noting that the central bank will consider speeding up tapering at its next meeting. Additionally, the Fed reported in its Beige Book that the country’s economic growth has been affected by supply issues and labor shortages. The Dow Jones ended the session by 1.34% or 462 points in the red, with Salesforce.com dropping 11.74%. The Nasdaq 100 was down by 1.60% at the closing bell. The S&P 500 finished 1.18% lower. Moderna led the losses on both indexes, falling 11.87%. The euro stood flat against the dollar trading for $1.13155 at 4:02 pm ET. NN: Making trading decisions on new Omicron coronavirus variant is a fools game. A smarter play is to wait for more info to come in.
Fed’s Beige Book finds ‘widespread’ price hikes in November
Wall Street pares gains after Omicron found in US
https://youtu.be/60njq5ARKAQ
(Reuters) -West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures slipped on Wednesday, reversing course from early gains after a U.S. official said the country was still considering tools to lower energy prices, and as government data pointed to weaker gasoline demand. Also pressuring oil prices, a new coronavirus variant triggered fresh travel restrictions that could dampen oil demand. Also, an OPEC+ document showed the group lifting its forecast for an oil surplus in the new year. WTI U.S. crude futures were down 51 cents, or 0.76%, at $65.77 a barrel at 1:49 p.m. ET (1849 GMT). During the session, they were up as much as 4%. Global benchmark Brent crude was down 24 cents, or 0.36%, at $68.99 a barrel. U.S. Deputy Energy Secretary David Turk said the Biden administration could adjust the timing of its planned release of strategic crude oil stockpiles if global energy prices drop substantially. He added that the White House was still studying proposals from Democratic lawmakers to ban crude oil exports to keep U.S. prices down. U.S. gasoline stocks rose 4 million barrels last week to 215.4 million barrels, government data showed, far surpassing analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for 29,000-barrel rise. Distillate stockpiles increased 2.2 million barrels to 123.9 million barrels, versus expectations for a 462,000-barrel build. [EIA/S] Crude inventories fell 910,000 barrels in the week, data showed, compared with forecasts for a 1.2 million-barrel drop. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries concluded its meeting without a decision on whether to release more oil into the market. The OPEC+ alliance, which includes Russia and other producers, will likely take a policy decision on Thursday. Reports and analysts suggested that expectations were growing that the group will take a pause due to the threat from a new virus variant. “There is much to suggest that OPEC+ will not initially step up its oil production any further in an effort to maintain current prices at around $70/bbl,” PVM analyst Stephen Brennock said. OPEC+ sees the oil surplus growing to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, 3.4 million bpd in February and 3.8 million bpd in March next year, an internal report seen by Reuters showed. Several OPEC+ ministers, though, have said there is no need to change course. But even if OPEC+ agrees to go ahead with its planned supply increase in January, producers may struggle to add that much. Both Brent and WTI front-month contracts in November posted their steepest monthly falls in percentage terms since March 2020, down 16% and 21% respectively. Analysts at Goldman Sachs called the decline in oil prices “excessive,” saying “the market has far overshot the likely impact of the latest variant on oil demand with the structural repricing higher due to the dramatic change in the oil supply reaction function still ahead of us.” NN: their is a lot we do not know here. SO the best course of action is WAIT for more information,,,
fighting at trampoline park turns into brawl
TAMPA, Fla. – Parents who take their kids to a trampoline park in Tampa want to know how a fight turned into a massive brawl involving hundreds of children. “This escalated very quickly,” according to parent Sandra Bermudez, who started recording on her cell phone when the fight broke out. “They were all having fun and then when this lady said, ‘Oh my God,’ and I turn around to look, they’re fighting on the right side.” Bermudez says the fight unfolded while she was at Sky Zone Trampoline Park on Adamo Drive with her 9-year-old son. She’s not sure what started the fight, but it quickly got out of control. According to Hillsborough County sheriff’s deputies, the melee involved about 200 kids — mostly teenagers In the video, Sky Zone security personnel can be seen trying to intervene. The business closed early to move everyone involved outside. Bermudez kept recording as the fight continued in the parking lot. Deputies can be seen responding later in the video. They said the brawl spilled over into nearby businesses and they tried to track down the parents of those involved.The sheriff’s office said they briefly detained and released one child, but made no arrests. It’s unclear if anyone was seriously hurt. NN: Maybe they just got done Christmas shopping with sledge hammers and could not fugue out how to divide up the booty…… Maybe its a matter of white privilege….
US rebounds in premarket, Dow jumps 300 pts
Major stock market indices recovered some of the prior day’s losses in the premarket on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging more than 300 points. Apart from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on the possible changes in the timeline for the tapering of the central bank’s asset purchases, the investors will keep an eye on the private payroll data and two reports on the state of the manufacturing sector in the country. The Dow Jones soared 0.88%, or 303 points, at 4:21 am ET, while the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.43% at the same time. The S&P 500 concurrently advanced by 1.15%. The euro lost 0.15% compared to the dollar at 4:23 am ET, selling for 1.13236. NN: Tommy buy the dips lee is going to make us a killing as we short this rally…… He relates to the millennials…. it was not long ago that he was a basement dweller himself.
Oil climbs over 3% ahead of OPEC meeting amid Omicron concerns
SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices rose more than 3% on Wednesday, recouping a big chunk of the previous session’s steep losses, as major producers prepared to discuss how to respond to the threat of a hit to fuel demand from the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. Brent crude futures rose $2.46, or 3.6%, to $71.69 a barrel at 0742 GMT, after rising to as high as $71.95 earlier in the day. The benchmark had slumped 3.9% on Tuesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $2.13, or 3.2%, to $68.31 a barrel, after a 5.4% drop on Tuesday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet on Wednesday after 1300 GMT and ahead of a meeting on Thursday of OPEC+, which groups OPEC with allies including Russia. “Considering the weak price actions and recent Omicron developments, OPEC+ may intend to be more cautious on production increases,” said Leona Liu, analyst at Singapore-based DailyFX.
“The market expects the cartel may forego its proposed production plan for a while.”
Some analysts expect OPEC+ to pause plans to add 400,000 barrels per day of supply in January in light of the potential hit to demand from travel curbs to rein in the spread of the Omicron variant. “Since (the) U.S. and other countries agreed on releasing emergency stocks to control the price rise… also since the prices have already corrected from $85 a barrel to close to $70, OPEC+ may revisit their strategy,” said Sunil Katke, head of commodities retail business at Kotak Securities. Several OPEC+ ministers, though, have said there was no need to change course. But even if OPEC+ agrees to go ahead with its planned supply increase in January, producers may struggle to add that much. A Reuters survey found OPEC pumped 27.74 million bpd in November, up 220,000 bpd from the previous month, but that was below the 254,000 bpd increase allowed for OPEC members under the OPEC+ agreement. In a sign of bearish demand, data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group showed U.S. crude stocks fell by 747,000 barrels in the week ended Nov. 26, according to market sources, which was a smaller decline than expected. NN: Its a wide open game here. I can make a case for $60 oil. And just as good a case for$80 oi. When your trade is a 50/50 proposition DO NOT DO IT. And we have a wild card….. the new covid Omicron variant. The question is how deadly is it. It will take a couple of weeks for the data to come in. My bet at the MOMENT is their will be no lock downs………
Fed’s Powell: Good time to retire ‘transitory’ for inflation
The nation’s economic steward said it will back off of using the word “transitory” to describe the fast pace of price increases, as Federal Reserve policymakers acknowledge the increasing risk of more persistent inflation. “We tend to use [the word transitory] to mean that it won’t leave a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress on Tuesday. “I think it’s probably a good time to retire that word and try to explain more clearly what we mean.” The central bank had been using the T-word since the beginning of the year, when Fed officials warned that nuances in year-over-year comparisons and supply chain bottlenecks would lead to eye-popping inflation readings.
The hope was that those high readings would fade in the later part of 2021. Instead, inflation accelerated. In October, prices soared 6.2% year-over-year, the fastest annual rise seen in the Consumer Price Index since 1990.
Powell acknowledged that the “risk of higher inflation has increased,” but reiterated that his baseline expectation is for inflation to fall closer to the central bank’s 2% target over the course of 2022. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, which rose by 5% on a year-over-year basis in October. Other Fed officials have similarly backed off of using the word “transitory.” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Yahoo Finance on Nov. 23 that the word was intended to link higher inflation to disruptions particular to COVID-19. “The first principle of effective communication is if people aren’t getting it, don’t speak more loudly and more emphatically,” Daly said. The Fed may attempt to get ahead of inflation by more rapidly pulling back on its asset purchase program, a process it kicked off this month. The central bank hoped to fully end its open market purchases of mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasuries by the middle of next year, but Powell opened the door to accelerating that timeline on Tuesday. “We now look at an economy that is very strong and inflationary pressures that are very high and that means it’s appropriate for us to discuss at our next meeting — which is in a couple weeks — whether it would be appropriate to wrap up our purchases a few months early,” Powell said. The Fed’s next policy-setting meeting is scheduled for Dec. 14 and 15. NN: I want to be clear here. No one knows where we are at. We need to gather more information. As far as the FED they are drowning in stupidity.
Oil slumps on jitters over vaccine efficacy
Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel told the FT that existing vaccines would struggle with the Omicron variant and warned it would take months for pharmaceutical companies to manufacture enough jabs at a sufficient scale to make a difference. His tone contrasts with the likes of Pfizer and BioNTech, which had earlier suggested any new vaccine would be able to modified fairly quickly. “His rather candid comments have seen oil prices slide back sharply, as an increasingly jittery market react with concern to the prospects of further restrictions and lower demand,” commented Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, this morning. As a result of these rather frank comments, markets in Asia dropped sharply and the gains made yesterday in European trading look set to disappear as we look to a sharply lower open later this morning, while US futures have also rolled over, he added. “As we look ahead to the rest of the week, this morning’s drop in markets shows that sentiment is set to remain extremely fickle until we get a clearer idea of what comes next when it comes to the new variant,” Hewson said. Expectations had been rising in recent days that the Federal Reserve might accelerate the pace of its tapering program when it meets in mid-December. “This now appears to be up for grabs with markets looking to today’s testimony by Fed chair Jay Powell to US lawmakers to gather clues as to the central banks thinking on the likelihood of this happening,” Hewson pointed out. NN: I am not about to run around with my hair on fire like Michael Jackson. I prefer to take a measured approach. The answer is not enough information is in. Yesterday the US started to DNA sequence samples from infected people to ascertain the variant that’s infecting them. Also we have not identified enough case and tracked them long enough to know how deadly this new variant Omicron is. From a observational stand point i can tell you highly contageous variants which is not necessary deadlier… As far as vaccine efficiency that has not been established. Do you really want to listen vaccines chief salesmen?