UK and US meat industry warns some firms have just five days’ CO2 supply

LONDON, Sept 20 (Reuters) – Some of Britain’s meat processors will run out of carbon dioxide within five days, forcing them to halt production, the head of the industry’s lobby group warned on Monday. A jump in gas prices has forced several domestic energy suppliers out of business and has shut fertiliser plants that also produce carbon dioxide (CO2), used to stun animals before slaughter and prolong the shelf-life of food. The shortage of CO2, also used to put the fizz in beer, cider and soft drinks, has compounded an acute shortage of truck drivers in the UK, which has been blamed on the impact of COVID-19 and Brexit.

“My members are saying anything between five, 10 and 15 days supply,” Nick Allen of the British Meat Processors Association told Sky News.

With no CO2 a meat processor cannot operate, he said. “The animals have to stay on farm, they’ll cause farmers on the farm huge animal welfare problems and British pork and British poultry will disappear off the shelves,” Allen said. “We’re two weeks away from seeing some real impacts on the shelves. On the poultry side we’re hearing they’re even tighter supplies so we might see poultry disappearing even sooner.” Allen said the government was working hard to try and resolve the issue and could hopefully persuade a UK fertiliser producer to re-start their plant. The British Retail Consortium (BRC), which represents retailers including the major supermarket groups, said the CO2 crisis added to existing pressures on production and distribution. “Retailers are working with their suppliers to resolve this issue, but government must investigate this issue as soon as possible and work with industry to ensure a solution is found quickly and problems don’t escalate further,” said Andrew Opie, the BRC’s director of food and sustainability. Foreign office minister James Cleverly said the government was looking to address short-term shortages. “We will ensure that we are able to put food on the table, obviously that is a real priority,” Nick Note: When we had the sea food factory industrial gases where critical for our operations. And when the nearest supply was two weeks away by boat and 1,500 miles you learned to pay close attenuation. The majority of our refrigeration were run on ammonia gas with huge compressors. If they went down we would turn 10 million in sea food to cat food or worse yet $1000 of fish-meal.the  Cheap gases we used we would bring from the US in tanks mounted on 20 foot containers We also used a lot of Co2 gas. It was used to flash freeze fish fillets, lobster and shrimp. We had a  IQF (individual quick frozen) Co2 tunnel to process shrimp. The cost of the gases was virtually nothing but you could not operate without it. We purchased from the commercial gas manufactures in Louisianan. All produced as a by product from natural gas. Co2 is used to stun chickens and turkeys before slaughter.  It is used to freeze chicken parts like chicken McNuggets. The chicken, Turkey, fish and meat packers cannot operate without it. You could of course eat veggie burgers…. Or go total vegan….. And their is the option of foods made from ants and worms. Not my cup of tea. I suggest you fill up your freezer and let someone else worry about the shortages. This is not new. We have been urging you to stock up all year. In a food inflation your yielding more on your survival stash of foods then in your treasuries….

Europe and Asis extends losses amid global selloff

https://youtu.be/kLbJvWwmawY

 

 

 

 

(Bloomberg) — Growing investor angst about China’s real estate crackdown rippled through markets on Monday, adding pressure on Xi Jinping’s government to prevent financial contagion from destabilizing the world’s second-largest economy. Hong Kong real estate giants including Henderson Land Development Co. suffered the biggest selloff in more than a year as traders speculated China will extend its property clampdown to the financial hub. Intensifying concerns about China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis dragged down everything from bank stocks to Ping An Insurance Group Co. and high-yield dollar bonds. One little-known Chinese property developer plunged 87% before shares were halted.

Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index slumped 3.3%, its biggest loss since late July. The selling also spilled over into the Hong Kong dollar, offshore yuan and S&P 500 Index futures. Holiday closures in much of Asia may have exacerbated the volatility, traders said.

Faced with uncertainty over how far Xi is willing to go with his market-roiling campaigns to achieve “common prosperity” and rein in overindebted companies, many investors are choosing to sell first and ask questions later. Interest payment deadlines this week on several Evergrande bonds and bank loans add another layer of risk as market participants brace for what could be one of China’s largest-ever debt restructurings. “The price action across several asset classes in Asia today is horrendous due to rising fears over Evergrande and a few other issues, but it could be an overreaction due to all of the market closures,” said Brian Quartarolo, portfolio manager at Pilgrim Partners Asia. Xi faces a tricky balancing act as he tries to reduce property-sector leverage and make housing more affordable without doing too much short-term damage to the financial system and economy. Mounting concerns that he’ll miscalculate are spreading ever-further beyond China-focused property developers and their suppliers.

“It’s what the Chinese would describe as trying to get off a tiger,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners.

Chinese policy makers may be able to avoid a financial crisis, but the Evergrande ordeal could still inflict lasting damage to credit conditions and the economy, Societe Generale SA analysts wrote in a note on Monday. “The repercussions from Evergrande’s prospective collapse will likely contribute to China’s ongoing economic deceleration, which in turn anchors global growth and inflation, and casts a pall over commodity prices,” wrote analysts led by Phoenix Kalen, head of emerging-market strategy in London. Hong Kong real estate companies took the brunt of the selling Monday, with the Hang Seng Property Index tumbling 6.7% for its biggest drop since May 2020. Henderson Land plunged 13% and Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. sank 10%, the most since 2012. Chinese officials told Hong Kong developers that Beijing is no longer willing to tolerate what it calls monopoly behavior, Reuters reported Friday. The officials didn’t lay out a roadmap or a deadline, according to Reuters, which cited unidentified developers. Hong Kong’s government has long struggled to bring home prices under control amid outsized demand, limited supply and low borrowing costs. The city’s average property value was a world-beating $1.25 million as of June 2020, according to CBRE Group Inc. “This is a paradigm shift,” said Hao Hong, chief strategist at Bocom International, referring to the Reuters report. “People need to keep a close look.” Ping An Insurance declined 5.8% to a more than four-year low on concerns about its property-sector exposure. The company issued a statement Friday saying that its insurance funds have “zero exposure” to Evergrande and other real estate companies “that the market has been paying attention to.” Real estate accounts for about 4.9% of Ping An Insurance’s investments, versus an average 3.2% for peers, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. In credit markets, the average price of high-yield dollar notes from Chinese borrowers slid some 2 cents Monday, set for the worst decline in about a year. That dragged down prices in the broader market for Asian junk bonds by 1 to 2 cents, traders said. Even debt with investment-grade ratings was stung. Yield premiums on notes from Country Garden Holdings Co., China’s largest developer by sales, widened to a record. The Hong Kong dollar fell to the lowest level this month, while the offshore yuan declined for a third day. FTSE China A50 Index futures slid 3.2% in Singapore. Mainland financial markets are closed for public holidays until Wednesday, when Hong Kong will be shut. S&P 500 Index futures dropped 1.2%. Evergrande is scheduled to pay interest on bank loans Monday, with a one-day grace period. While details on the amount due aren’t publicly available, Chinese authorities have already told major lenders not to expect repayment, people familiar with matter said last week. Evergrande and banks are discussing the possibility of extensions and rolling over some loans, the people said. Payments due Thursday include $83.5 million of interest on an 8.25%, five-year dollar bond, Bloomberg-compiled data show. Evergrande needs to pay a 232 million yuan ($36 million) coupon on an onshore bond the same day. The developer’s stock sank by as much as 19% on Monday to the lowest level since 2011. Its dollar bond due 2022 was indicated down 3.1 cents on the dollar at 26 cents, set for a record low. Nick Note: Warning to ALL people buying into the stock and real estate markets. Throw in people chasing higher yield… The End is neigh!

US deep in red premarket, Dow tumbles over 450 pts

United States stock indexes traded significantly lower on Monday amid a global selloff, driven by inflation concerns, as well as the surge in new COVID-19 infections. Over the weekend, media reported that the Washington-held Quad summit should lead to a new semiconductor partnership among participants. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.37%, or 473 points at 4:24 am ET, while the Nasdaq lost 1.05%, or 160 points. The S&P 500 plunged 1.18% or 52 points at the same time. Nick Note: This is getting out of hand. Part of the fear in the market is the silence by the Chinese government on its latest wipe out of investors…especially the stupid US funds and investment bankers…. How did they hook them in. Its the classic free money trap. CHASING HIGHER YEILDS. Evergrande bonds were paying 8% in the classic what you see  is what you do not get! And for the record the owners of this debt are US retirement savers who log on to their IRA fund and check the yield……. . China is closed for 2 days another freeging holiday. My read is the Chinese government will intervene and bond investors will take up to a 80% hair cut. Before I jump off the bridge i need to get a read on what is going on. I see a China take over of Evergrande…..  As to the China real estate crises its worse in the US……… And the reaction in the US markets is overdone. Do not get me wrong a wipeout is coming… It will come as the FED raises rates and cut of the 150 billion a month in direct stimulus

America is months behind US on covid19 booster shots

Israel’s top COVID-19 experts say that they view the Food and Drug Administration advisory panel’s decision to recommend vaccine booster shots only for Americans over the age of 65 or those in specific risk groups as a vindication of their own country’s massive inoculation campaign. Israel was the first country in the world to begin a widespread booster shot campaign this summer, and Israeli data was used during the FDA panel’s deliberations. Yet while Israel is now offering the booster shot to anyone over the age of 12, the advisory committee decided to limit it to specific high-risk populations for now. Leading experts in Israel have said over the past two days that they view the American panel’s recommendation as an acknowledgment that conditions differ between the two countries. “The FDA in principle confirmed that the third dose is safe,” said Prof. Nadav Davidovitch, director of the School of Public Health at Ben-Gurion University of the Desert, Be’er Sheva, and head of the Israeli Association of Public Health Physicians. Davidovitch added that “we need to remember the FDA did approve it for high-risk people with chronic diseases and also those at high risk because of their profession, such as health care workers of all ages. They have their own priorities and Israel has other priorities, because we started earlier. We also started with older people and then moved down and I think this is a very reasonable decision.” Israel began to offer the third dose to older citizens back in August because of rising concerns, later confirmed by new research, that the effectiveness of the existing COVID-19 vaccines began to wane after approximately six months. An Israeli study published last week showed that booster shots increase protection from infection over tenfold in those over 60, compared to those who received only a second shot of the vaccine months ago. The study used data on 1.14 million Israelis aged 60 and up who had received two doses of the vaccine by the end of August. It divided cases into two groups: one consisting of people who received two doses of the vaccine, and another consisting of people who received a third dose. The researchers found that at least 12 days after the booster shot, the rate of infection in the non-booster group was 11.4 higher than the booster group, while their rate of severe illness was 19.5 times higher. The peer-reviewed study was authored by 11 researchers, including Israel’s director of public health services, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, who also spoke in front of the FDA panel and presented relevant data from Israel. Following the FDA panel’s decision, Alroy-Preis explained how Israel’s considerations differ from those of the United States. “We are three months ahead of the U.S. in the entire vaccination campaign’’, she told the Ynet news website. ‘’They don’t yet see the waning immunity [of the previous doses], but here it’s very apparent.’’ In a statement on Saturday, the Health Ministry also said that the United States is “several months behind Israel” in terms of vaccinating its citizens, many of whom are still within the window of maximum protection offered by the second dose of the vaccine. “At the point in time where Israel is at the moment, it is right for Israel to vaccinate the entire population aged 12 and older with the booster dose,” the ministry asserted. Prof. Ran Balicer, who heads a panel that advises the Israeli government on COVID policies, appeared to agree, tweeting that Israel’s health authorities also debated over several weeks whether to approve the first stage of the booster campaign, which was originally limited to those over 60. “The American decision from tonight is much broader than the one made back then in Israel,’’ he wrote. “I believe they too will gradually expand the recommendation.” In an interview with Channel 12, Dr. Ofer Levy, an Israeli member of the FDA advisory panel, concurred that Israel’s situation was different from that of the United States, where he said more data was necessary, adding that Israelis eligible for a third shot should get one, regardless of what was happening in other countries. On Saturday, the Israeli Health Ministry’s COVID dashboard reported 697 patients in serious condition, 484 of whom were not vaccinated at all. In other words, despite the fact that only 17 percent of eligible Israelis have not been vaccinated at all for COVID-19, the unvaccinated are now more than two-thirds of the country’s severe cases. Meanwhile, there were 158 serious cases of people who received two shots of the vaccine, and only 55 who had received a booster shot. Over the past week, 119 people have died of the virus, and nearly 60 percent of them were unvaccinated. The disparity is even more apparent when calculating per capita: For every death of an Israeli over 60 who received the booster shot, there are roughly 15 deaths of unvaccinated Israelis in the same age group. As of Sunday, 3,040,426 Israelis have received a booster, while 5,576,238 have received two doses and 6,062,338 have only received one. The FDA is expected to make its final decision on the third round of shots soon. It is not bound by the panel’s recommendation but will take it into consideration.

Vaccinated Israelis driving September peek in new infectios. blame the avtivaccers and the high holidays

Israel has been one of the focal points of the pandemic in 2021 owing to its rapid rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. By late February, authorities had administered at least one dose to 50% of the population, with much of Israel’s immunisation programme using Pfizer vaccines. Society then in effect reopened across the summer of 2021. However, since then Israel has reported significant outbreaks, with over 10,000 confirmed new cases being recorded each day in early September. A main part of the problem has been vaccine coverage. After its fast start, Israel’s rollout slowed. There have not been any clear interruptions to vaccine supply, so factors such as hesitancy or access to healthcare may have been an issue. For example, there’s evidence of uptake being lower among Arab and ultra-Orthodox Jewish groups. The share of the population having received one dose increased from 50% in February to only 68% in September. Children aged 12-15 have been included in the rollout since June 2021, yet despite this, currently only 62% of the population have had two doses.This has left Israel behind many other countries in terms of coverage, including the UK. Having around 30% of the Israeli population completely unvaccinated means that there’s approximately 2.7 million people who are potentially susceptible to infection and illness.  There are also concerns that the immunity offered by the Pfizer vaccines may be waning over time, although much of the research on this is still at an early stage (meaning it is still awaiting review by other scientists). Israel’s hospital data is, though, showing that vaccinated people are susceptible to infection. Recent reports suggest that nearly 60% of hospitalisations are in the fully vaccinated. However, as experts have suggested, these figures don’t necessarily mean that vaccines have lost their effectiveness. The same sort of trend has been seen in the UK, and may simply reflect the fact that the elderly are more likely to be vaccinated while also being more susceptible to disease – factors which combine to inflate COVID-19 cases and deaths among the vaccinated.

A further factor is the more transmissible delta variant, which has now taken hold in Israel. This form of the virus is driving the current series of outbreaks, and its greater ability to spread may partially explain the rise in cases too.

The other big part of the problem has been Israel ending its restrictions. Dr Asher Salmon, director of the Department for International Relations at Israel’s ministry of health, suggested in July that Israel “may have lifted restrictions too early”. It’s the latest in a long line of examples showing how community transmission can be easily sustained when national policy encourages the mixing of susceptible people with no or few restrictions in place. The tragic consequences of relaxing restrictions in India shows how devastating it can be when decision-making goes awry. The COVID-19 Stringency Index created by Our World in Data is a composite measure of the strictness of the COVID-19 containment policies in each country around the world. As of August 28 2021, Israel’s restrictions score was 45.4, far less strict than New Zealand, where outbreaks continue to be limited in scope (96.3), but comparable with the UK (44.0), which is reporting around 30,000 new cases per day. Countries watched the initial vaccine rollout in Israel, gauging the vaccines’ impact and using this information to inform their own immunisation campaigns. Amid concerns about waning immunity, there are once again reasons to observe what happens next in Israel, as it is now implementing a booster programme, giving third doses of vaccines.

In terms of the effectiveness of boosters, early reports are encouraging. In those receiving a booster, the risk of a confirmed coronavirus infection appears to decrease 11-fold relative to individuals who have received two doses. However, the relevant study is still in preprint, so its findings have yet to be formally reviewed.

The use of boosters is controversial. There have been continuous calls for higher-income countries to share their vaccine stockpiles with lower-income ones. This has not yet happened to any great extent. As of early September, only 5.4% of the African continent has received at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine. The World Health Organization has called for a moratorium on booster shots until at least the end of September, but it seems unlikely any country will be altering their policies accordingly – including Israel. Israel’s vaccine rollout, overall, has arguably been implemented very successfully. But the country is also an example of what can happen when restrictions are relaxed too quickly. What it shows is that all countries – regardless of their current vaccine status – need to maintain longer-term plans for how to minimise the impact of COVID-19, during this current pandemic and beyond when controlling smaller outbreaks.

Nick Note: Lets keep our perspective here. This is not about politics. Its not even about who is right and who is wrong. Its about staying healthy and alive.  I am seeing a lot of confusion about the record breaking infections in Israel. The data suggest that is caused by 3 things.

1. the highly infections and more deadly Delta mutation.

2, it is infecting non vaccinated people in droves.

3. To a much lesser extent we are seeing a increase in what is called breakthrough infections among the fully vaccinated as their vaccine wears off in 6 month.

For the record serious infections among the 3rd vaccinated are nill. We are seeing hospitalizations among unvaccinated at a rate 500 cases per hundred thousand. Among (2 shot)  vaccinated  20 cases per 100,000. And among the fully vaccinated with the 3rd shot 1 case, one serious ill person out of 100,000. So why are cases at record highs in Israel. Well the truth is its being driven by two things… The fools unvaccinated and the lifting of ALL restrictions for the high holidays. That represent from the Jewish New Year to Succot weeks of get togethers in big groups. And the festive season is not over yet. So fasten your seat belt. The good news is we will get incredible accurate data. Early indicators will show that triple vaccinated people are not getting infected.

Stymied Bond Bears See Spark for Higher Yields in Pivotal Week

(Bloomberg) — Bond bears, long frustrated by stubbornly low Treasury yields, are girding for a make-or-break week as the Federal Reserve is expected to start laying the groundwork for reducing stimulus. The bond market enters this potentially pivotal stretch at a crossroads: 10-year yields are testing the top of their range since early July as traders anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee will hint in its Sept. 22 decision at a plan to curb its bond buying. For the bearish contingent, which is the majority on Wall Street, this meeting represents one of the last prospective triggers this year for a decisive breakout in yields. Primary dealers surveyed by Bloomberg News predict on average that 10-year rates will be more than 30 basis points higher by year-end. Fed tapering signals are hardly the only focus. Strategists also see likely ammunition for bears in the central bank’s new forecasts for its benchmark rate. An unexpected hawkish shift in these projections in June jolted financial markets and flattened the yield curve by the most since the early days of the pandemic. “My view has been that the September FOMC will be a potential catalyst to get things moving toward higher yields by year-end,” said Blake Gwinn, a strategist at RBC Capital Markets, who expects 10-year yields to rise to 1.75% next quarter. “If that fails to materialize, I am not sure if other catalysts will get us there, and we may be stuck in range-bound trading in Q4.” The average forecast in a Bloomberg survey of primary dealers is for benchmark 10-year yields to climb to 1.69% by year-end, from a bit under 1.4% now. Deutsche Bank AG was the most bearish, forecasting 2.25%. HSBC Holdings Plc’s Steven Major, known for his persistent bullish views, had the lowest forecast, at 1%. The Fed is likely to hint Wednesday that it’s ready to taper soon with a formal announcement coming in November, according to a separate Bloomberg survey of economists. The central bank is also expected to hold rates near zero through 2022 before delivering two quarter-point increases in 2023 and three more the year after. The risk is that a hawkish shift in Fed projections known as the “dot plot” will prompt traders to recalibrate expectations for the central bank’s policy path, as happened in June. It will take just three officials to raise their dots for 2022 for a full hike to be the new median for next year, assuming everyone else keeps their forecasts where they were. Such a scenario would leave 5- and 10-year Treasuries particularly vulnerable to a selloff, according to Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale. Expectations of such a shift have already contributed to shrinking the 5- to 30-year yield spread to the smallest since August 2020, when the Fed unveiled its new inflation framework. In options, bets emerged Friday on even higher 5-year yields. “The dots in next week’s meeting is going to be very important, not just for 2024, but also for 2022,” said Rajappa, who sees 10-year yields at 1.7% at year-end. “We believe this is an underpriced risk and bodes well for our call for higher yields.”

What to Watch

The economic calendarSept. 20: NAHB housing indexSept. 21: Building permits; current account balance; housing startsSept. 22: MBA mortgage applications; existing home sales; FOMC decisionSept. 23: Chicago Fed national activity index; jobless claims; Langer consumer comfort; Markit PMIs; leading index; Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity; household change in net worthSept. 24: New home salesThe Fed calendarSept. 22: FOMC decision and press conference by Fed Chair Jerome PowellSept. 24: Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester; Powell, Governor Michelle Bowman and Vice Chair Richard Clarida host Fed Listens event; Kansas City Fed’s Esther GeorgeThe auction calendar:Sept. 20: 13-, 26-week billsSept. 21: 20-year bondsSept. 22: 2-year floating-rate notesSept. 23: 4-, 8-week bills; 10-year TIPS.

Nick Note:  You need to liquidate ALL your bonds. Some of you are holding US TREASURY BONDS either at treasury direct or at your broker. Interest rates have bottomed for now. We need to get ahead of this. As discussed in previous postings inflation is embedded and inflationary expectations as is the rise in inflation are at record rates. I am not referring to out beloved Zeroes Principal portion strips.  i had you take profits on when they dropped below 2%. Rates on all issues will be going higher…. The fed is 400 to 500 bases points behind the power curve. So lets take profits on all your Treasury bonds and and bills of  maturity  over a year or more. Please note after they stamp out inflation (they will have to collapse the economy to do it. Like they have done every other time.)  We will buy back out strips and bonds on the coming upward spike in rates… And then we will ride them down to double digit negative as the economy wipes out…. again.

OPEC to stick to oil production deal in October, Iraq oil minister says

BAGHDAD — OPEC and its allies will try to keep oil prices at $70 per barrel in the first quarter of 2022, Iraq’s oil minister said, adding the group is expected to stick to its current production accord when it meet in October “if prices remain stable.” Iraq total oil exports, including those of the Kurdistan region in the north of the country, should stand at an average of 3.4 million barrels per day in September, the minister, Ihsan Abdul Jabbar, told a news conference in Baghdad on Sunday.

OPEC and its allies agreed to stick to their existing plan for gradual monthly oil-production increases after a brief video conference. Ministers ratified the 400,000 barrel-a-day supply hike scheduled for October after less than an hour of talks, one of the quickest meetings in recent memory and a stark contrast to the drawn-out negotiations seen in July.

“OPEC have proven once again that they can meet and do things seamlessly,” Christyan Malek, head of oil and gas and JPMorgan Chase & Co., said on Bloomberg TV. “It’s likely that harmony is going to be utilized” to respond flexibly to any further shifts in the market over the coming year, he said.

While conditions may appear favorable for cartel right now, there are uncertainties on the horizon. Even as demand recovers, it has been buffeted by the emergence of new coronavirus variants. The question of whether Iran and the U.S. will do a deal to lift sanctions on the Islamic Republic’s oil exports — currently looking less likely — also hangs over the market. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia are in the process of rolling back the unprecedented output cuts implemented at the depths of the Covid-19 crisis last year. About 45% of the idle supply has already been revived, and in July the group laid out a plan for gradually returning the remainder through to September 2022. With crude prices mostly recovered from their mid-August slump and the supply outlook relatively tight for the rest of the year, the 23-nation coalition had little reason to change the established schedule of gradual monthly supply hikes, despite a request from the White House to revive output faster. There had been some doubts about the plan when oil markets wobbled over the summer as the resurgent virus threatened demand. But fuel use proved resilient, with total oil products supplied in the U.S. rising to a record in late August. “While the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic continue to cast some uncertainty, market fundamentals have strengthened and OECD stocks continue to fall as the recovery accelerates,” OPEC+ said in a statement. The group will meet again on Oct. 4. Data presented to ministers reveal a fresh challenge for Saudi Arabia and its partners in 2022. Markets were projected to tip back into surplus next year, with an average oversupply of 1.6 million barrels a day. However, the projections assume the group will restore all of the almost 6 million barrels a day of output that remains offline — an unlikely feat as many countries may struggle to reach their full targets. The amount of crude production that OPEC+ theoretically holds offline is based on questionable figures. Russia has an inflated baseline that’s significantly higher than pre-pandemic output. Some other members have outdated capacity numbers, with countries including Angola and Nigeria already struggling to make the supply increases permitted under the deal. Nick Note: Oil lives and dies on the state of the global economy visa vie the spreading Covid19 mutant strains. And how fast the FED caves in and raises rates and pulls liquidity from the system…..

UK records 164 COVID deaths, 30,144 new cases….. US hospitals buckling under delta surge: 25% of ICUs are over 95% full

The burden on US hospital ICUs has more than doubled since June.

The current surge of COVID-19 cases driven by the hypertransmissible delta variant is straining hospitals across the US, particularly in the South. Twenty-five percent of hospital intensive care units around the country are now above 95 percent full. That percentage is up from 20 percent in July and just 10 percent in June, according to data tracking by The New York Times.

The spike in critical care follows a surge in cases and hospitalizations. Average new daily cases in the country skyrocketed from around 12,000 a day in late June to 150,000 or so in mid-September. Hospitalizations have likewise risen, shooting up from an average of nearly 17,000 a day at the start of July to around 100,000 now. Though cases and hospitalizations are starting to plateau or decline slightly, they are still extremely high. Deaths, meanwhile, are increasing. In the past two weeks, deaths have increased 40 percent to the current average of nearly 1,900 per day.

Most of the cases and nearly all of the hospitalizations and deaths remain among the unvaccinated. Around 60,000 people in the US have died of COVID-19 since the start of July. With highly effective vaccines freely available, nearly all of the current deaths are preventable.

Now, along with the surge, public health experts fear strain on health care systems will lead to additional suffering and death in non-COVID patients. Hospitals in several states have been forced to ration treatments and enact crisis-care standards.

Hospitals in Alabama have exceeded 100 percent capacity of ICU beds. The Alabama Hospital Association on Tuesday reported that there were 1,592 ICU patients in the state and only 1,549 staffed ICU beds, an excess of 43 patients. The seven-day average of positive tests for the Yellowhammer State is 19 percent, suggesting that transmission is still extremely high. Alabama is one of the least-vaccinated states in the country, with only 40 percent of the population fully vaccinated.  Generally, the hospitals and ICUs most overburdened are in the South, where vaccination rates are relatively low and transmission of delta has soared. In Texas, 169 out of 506 reporting hospitals have ICUs above 95 percent full, which is up from just 69 in June, the Times notes. In Florida, 24 hospitals have reported having more ICU patients than beds in the last week. In Mississippi, 94 percent of the entire state’s ICU beds are full. But the South isn’t the only place where hospitals are becoming overwhelmed. Last week, Idaho’s health department activated its crisis standards of care in 10 northern hospitals. Likewise, Alaska’s largest hospital—Providence Alaska Medical Center in Anchorage—implemented crisis standards over the weekend. The hospital announced the decision in a two-page letter sent Tuesday. “The acuity and number of patients now exceeds our resources and our ability to staff beds with skilled caregivers, like nurses and respiratory therapist,” according to the letter, which was signed by Providence Chief of Staff Dr. Kristen Solana Walkinshaw. “[W]e must prioritize scarce resources and treatments to those patients who have the potential to benefit most. We have been required to develop and enact policies and procedures to ration medical care and treatments, including dialysis and specialized ventilatory support… Due to this scarcity, we are unable to provide lifesaving care to everyone who needs it.” The letter also noted that, with the crush of COVID-19 patients, some people seeking emergency care were sitting for hours in their cars outside of the hospital, waiting to be seen by a doctor.

UK records 164 COVID deaths, 30,144 new cases

Figure brings the total UK death toll to 135,147; Russia reports 20,329 new cases in 24 hours; anti-lockdown protesters clash with police in Melbourne

  • Prove your Covid status if you want to party, UK students told
  • People with chronic conditions most at risk from Covid even after jabs
  • Victoria police and anti-lockdown protesters in violent clashes
  • Freshers’ week drive to give Covid jabs to students in England
  • See all our coronavirus coverage

Elon Musk Says Starlink Will Complete Beta-Testing Phase In October

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted Friday that the company’s Starlink satellite internet network would come out of its open beta phase next month. That’s two months later than the August date Musk gave at Mobile World Congress, when he also said he expected the service to have “possibly over 500,000 users within 12 months The Starlink system calls for a constellation of nearly 12,000 satellites in low-Earth orbits that will beam continuous broadband internet service. A terminal costs $499 and there’s a $99 monthly fee for service. It opened its public beta test in October 2020, and Musk said in August that SpaceX had shipped 100,000 Starlink terminals, which includes a satellite dish and a Wi-Fi router, to users in 14 countries. As the beta ends and more countries are able to get access to Starlink, that 100,000 number is likely to grow, although it’s hard to tell when it might reach the half-million mark that Musk predicted. Starlink’s internet service is planned to be sold directly to consumers in rural areas around the world, among other customers, and it’s touting 100Mbps download and 20Mbps upload speeds. Reviews of the Starlink service so far have been mixed, however. It’s also worth noting that Musk tends to be extremely optimistic when laying out deadlines for his companies’ product releases, as Tesla customers who waited for that company’s so-called “Full Self Driving” software can attest. Nick Note: I urge you to give them a $100 deposit and get on the waiting list. This is a revolution in how internet is delivered….. Its a must for rural users and for city folk a GREAT backup system

Analysis-Investors brace for a great fall in China

LONDON (Reuters) – International investors that have been piling into China in recent years are now bracing for one of its great falls as the troubles of over-indebted property giant China Evergrande come to a head. The developer’s woes have been snowballing since May. Dwindling resources set against 2 trillion yuan ($305 billion) of liabilities have wiped nearly 80% off its stock and bond prices and an $80 million bond coupon payment now looms next week. What happens then is unclear. Bankers have said it will most likely miss the payment and go into a kind of suspended animation where authorities step in and sell some of its assets, but it could easily get messy. “We will have to see what happens,” said Sid Dahiya, head of EM corporate bonds at abrdn, formerly Aberdeen Standard, in London, which holds a small sliver of the bonds. “They are probably working on a deal in the background, but we don’t have any clarity and we don’t really have any precedents, so it is uncharted water.”

Evergrande warned just over two weeks ago that it risked defaulting on its debt if it failed to raise cash. Since then it has said that no progress has been made with those efforts.

Analysts say the bigger picture is that if Evergrande – which has more than 1,300 real estate projects in over 280 cities – does topple, it will firmly dispel the idea that some Chinese firms are too big to fail. It would probably still apply to big state-linked firms of course, but it comes too after Beijing’s clampdowns on big tech firms like Alibaba and Tencent wiped nearly a trillion dollars off its markets earlier in year. Contagion from Evergrande has largely been confined to China’s other highly-indebted “high-yield” firms which have also slumped, but Hong Kong’s heavyweight Hang Seng also hit a 10-month low on Thursday showing there is some spread. There are big name global funds involved too. EMAXX data shows that Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager, was the largest overall holder of Evergrande’s international bonds, although it says it sold most of it before things turned really ugly. The Paris-headquartered firm had just under $93 million of a $625 million bond due for repayment in June 2025 and around $300 altogether back in March. It now holds $25 million in total. UBS Asset Management currently holds around $85 million of that 2025 issue and is also one of the bigger overall holders. Amundi’s Co-Head of EM Corporate & EM High Yield, Colm d’Rosario described the fundamental picture for many Chinese firms as intact “For now, however, we await the commencement of a restructuring process (of Evergrande) to gather more information.” “It remains to be seen the scale of loss that investors will face.”

Back in April Evergrande’s bonds were trading around 90 cents on the dollar, now they are closer to 25 cents.

“It was always priced as a risky high-yield investment but what prices are telling you today is that there was some surprise that the government would let it go fully,” said the head of emerging market debt at U.S. fund Aegon Asset Management Jeff Grills. He added it has been a text book example where investors had been lured in by the 10% plus interest rate the bonds had provided.

According to the letter Evergrande sent to the Chinese government late last year, its liabilities involve more than 128 banks and over 120 other types of institutions.

A group of Evergrande bondholders has selected investment bank Moelis & Co and law firm Kirkland & Ellis as advisers on a potential restructuring of a tranche of bonds, two sources close to the matter said.Other funds also exposed to the bonds include the world’s biggest asset manager BlackRock, as well dozens more such as Fidelity, Goldman Sachs asset management and PIMCO. Major U.S. financial firms including BlackRock and Goldman, and the likes of Blackstone, are due to meet with officials from China’s central bank and its banking and securities regulators later on Thursday. Debt analysts hope though the damage might not be too widespread. The holdings are tiny compared to those big investment firms’ overall size. Also only $6.75 billion of near $20 billion of Evergrande debt are included on JPMorgan’s CEMBI index which big emerging market corporate debt buyers use as a kind of shopping list. Others are still wary though of the wider signal it sends. “This is part of a self-reinforcing dynamic in which rising insolvency risk sets off financial distress costs, which in turn increase insolvency risk,” Michael Pettis, a nonresident senior fellow at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, said on twitter. “Until regulators step in and credibly address insolvency risk across the board, conditions are likely only to deteriorate.” Some veteran emerging market crisis watchers also think the troubles still have further to run. “This unwind hasn’t even really started,” said Hans Humes at EM debt-focused hedge fund Greylock Capital. Nick Note: You would have to have a death wish or at least a bankruptcy wish to invest ANY money in China or China companies….. They will fuck you. they canot help themselves…… China is a year away at most from a Lehman moment….. It will be called the Evergrande moment like in a Grande wipeout….. My treaeed associate. Once again Fidelity and Blackrock fuck the sleeping masses. Their funds, as are the ones administrated by the investement bankes are chock full of this shit…. WHY because never grande-anymore bonds were paying as high as 8% interest… money that fund idiot investors will never see……