Author: BlackMask Financial

 

https://youtu.be/WlO8AjPZtO4

A recent burst of inflation could prove more long-lasting than expected as the surging U.S. economy faces widespread bottlenecks that have severely disrupted the global supply chain, a Federal Reserve official said on Thursday.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Inflation may be even stronger in coming months than Federal Reserve policymakers currently expect as the U.S. recovery likely gains steam in the fall and a global recovery follows, St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard said on Thursday.

That could push the level of prices beyond what is needed to account for recent years of inflation below the Fed’s 2% target, and presented a “new risk” that Fed officials will have to consider in coming months.

“Inflation may surprise still further to the upside as the reopening process continues, beyond the level necessary to simply make up for past misses to the low side,” Bullard said in a presentation prepared for delivery to the Clayton Chamber of Commerce near St. Louis. Bullard earlier this week said he was among the Fed policymakers who expect interest rates will need to increase next year. Faster than expected inflation this year and on into 2022 will, he said, meet the Fed’s intent to let the pace of price increases exceed the formal 2% target for a time to offset years in which inflation has been too low. His comments Thursday suggest concerns of an even larger inflation shock.There has already, he said, been a “substantial” surprise in terms of stronger than anticipated economic growth and inflation. As schools reopen in the U.S. in the fall and more countries reopen their economies, “the risk is tangible” inflation could move higher than projected. “Policymakers will have to take this new risk into account in the months and quarters ahead,” he said. Nick Note: This could end this rally in the next 6 months like a bullet to the brain. Of course we got to start operations ahead of time.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday as outbreaks of the highly contagious COVID-19 variant Delta and the re-emergence of travel restrictions raised fears over demand ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting. International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $74 per barrel at 06.55 GMT, a 0.19% decrease after closing Monday at $74.14 a barrel. American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $72.86 a barrel at the same time, a 0.07% drop after ending the previous session at $72.91 per barrel. Uncertainties on whether restrictions due to the coronavirus variant will be re-imposed in Europe and many Asian countries are weighing on prices. “The forecast for oil demand recovery over the summer may be a bit overestimated and traders are facing a reality check this week as the Delta variant reached Europe, and as infections surge in Southeast Asia and Australia to bring back lockdowns,” said Rystad Energy’s Oil Markets Analyst Louise Dickson. Investors also await US crude oil inventory data to be announced by the country’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. Another key signal anticipated is the outcome of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other affiliated producers, known as OPEC+, at Thursday’s meeting, and whether it will reflect investor demand fears in their production quota decision. “The market consensus is that OPEC+ will likely raise production by about 500,000 bpd [barrels per day] for August, which would still be a net positive for oil prices as it doesn’t fully satiate the swiftly growing demand profile over summer, depending on the Delta variant developments, of course,” Dickson said. The UK saw its highest daily number of coronavirus cases since the end of January this year. In Russia, 21,650 coronavirus cases were recorded over the past day, raising the overall count to more than 5.47 million with active cases reaching 369,708 – the highest figure since Jan. 20. Bangladesh recorded a new spike in COVID-19 infections with 8,364 cases, raising fears of a serious crisis in hospital beds if the surge continues. Nick Note: Pay attention here! You are not being told the truth! By the way I expect to see the stock market after the celebration to fall right back down again!

North Korean state television has aired a citizen’s comment about Kim Jong Un’s “emaciated” condition, a highly unusual broadcast in a country where public discussion of the leader’s health and personal life has always been off-limits.  Analysts say the remarks showed authorities were seeking to use the change to Kim’s weight to reinforce loyalty to the regime in desparate times.  The impoverished, nuclear-armed country is more isolated than ever behind its self-imposed coronavirus barricade, and this month admitted it was tackling a food crisis, sounding the alarm in a nation with a moribund agricultural sector that has long struggled to feed itself.  At the same time Kim’s health has long been closely watched internationally as his sudden death would raise questions over succession and stability.  Known as a heavy smoker, the leader has long been obese, with his weight appearing to increase steadily in recent years. But he looked noticeably less overweight in recent media images published by Pyongyang’s official KCNA news agency and on state television. Kim’s personal life is normally taboo for North Korea’s state media — Pyongyang has never confirmed how many children he has — but KCTV last week aired a clip of an unnamed resident of the capital claiming everyone in the country was “heartbroken” by his “emaciated” condition. “Seeing our respected general secretary looking emaciated breaks our people’s hearts the most,” he said.  “Everyone is talking about how their tears welled up immediately.” Analysts say Pyongyang is using Kim’s appearance as a way to glorify him by portraying him as a “devoted, hardworking” leader as the country struggles to tackle its food crisis and other challenges. It shut its borders in January last year to protect itself against the pandemic, and as a result trade with Beijing — its economic lifeline — has slowed to a trickle while all international aid workers have left the country. “The message Pyongyang is sending is that Kim is a leader who works very hard for his people even to a degree he skips meals and loses weight,” defector-turned-researcher Ahn Chan-il told AFP.  Global speculation about Kim’s health flared last year after he missed the commemoration of the birthday of his late grandfather, and was absent from public view for about 20 days. Kim’s father Kim Jong-Il and grandfather Kim Il-Sung were also obese and heavy smokers. Both died of heart attacks.  In 2016, South Korea’s spy agency reported Kim had bulked up to 130 kilogrammes, having piled on around 40 kilos (90 pounds) since taking power in 2011, “bingeing on food and drink”.  Last year it estimated he had put on another 10 kilogrammes, taking him to around 140 kilogrammes. But Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, pointed out it was unlikely his recent weight loss was a symptom of acute ill health, as he had attended several public events this month.  “No one can really know why he lost weight,” he told AFP. “What’s clear — from the KCTV footage — is the regime wants the world to think that its people love care for their leader, to a point where they’d cry over his thinner appearance.”