Author: BlackMask Financial

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US higher premarket ahead of housing data Fed’s Bullard: Too early to discuss tapering

Major stock indexes in the United States were in the green during premarket trade on Tuesday as investors waited for today’s housing and consumer confidence data. Meanwhile, Fed’s James Bullard warned against tapering off the central bank’s asset purchases too soon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.26% at 4:0 am ET, while the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.50%. The S&P 500 increased 0.32% at the same time. The euro rose 0.29% against the greenback at 4:29 am ET, selling for 1.22500 dollars

Fed’s Bullard: Too early to discuss tapering

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard (pictured) pointed out on Monday that the central bank is “not quite there yet” when it comes to discussions about changing its asset purchase policy. The debate on altering monetary policy should be left for the post-coronavirus crisis period, Bullard explained in a Yahoo Finance interview, but added he thinks that “we will get there in the months ahead.” The Fed official also reiterated his view that the inflation rate in the United States will increase and will surpass 2% in both 2021 and 2022. Says he wouldn’t be surprised if 2021 GDP estimates were raised from +6.5% The US has a ‘big economic boom going on’ I would like to see more inflation data before changing my forecast. The data is very noisy I think inflation will remain above 2% in 2022 What’s important here is that he said the Fed will tolerate inflation above 2% throughout 2022. It’s tough to discern the signal from the noise with all the volatility in economic data. We’re certainly going to have to be nimble Labor market is tighter than is being represented. Once people go back to searching for jobs, I’m hopeful they will be able to find them It’s not clear to me that we should expect labor force participation to return to 2019 levels. Cites retirees who have done well on equities and housing. Expectations of a million jobs per month have been ‘hyped up’, half a million is more realistic. At heart I’m an inflation hawk. We’re going to have to allow higher inflation in the ‘boom time’ than we normally would have. I will leave it up to the chair to determine when to start the taper talk

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First COVID-19 patients in Wuhan were hospitalized

US intelligence report found that several researchers at China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology fell ill in November 2019 and had to be hospitalized, a new detail about the severity of their symptoms that could fuel further debate about the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, according to two people briefed on the intelligence. A State Department fact sheet released by the Trump administration in January said that the researchers had gotten sick in autumn 2019 but did not go as far as to say they had been hospitalized. China reported to the World Health Organization that the first patient with Covid-like symptoms was recorded in Wuhan on December 8, 2019. The Wall Street Journal first reported on the intelligence surrounding the earlier hospitalizations. Importantly, the intelligence community still does not know what the researchers were actually sick with, said the people briefed, and continues to have low confidence in its assessments of the virus’ precise origins beyond the fact that it came from China. “At the end of the day, there is still nothing definitive,” said one of the people who has seen the intelligence. #Covid19 #CNN #News Nick Note: If you remember my “China Dream” early on and our breakthrough reporting to you and various groups of our China intelligence got us their first on the plague. 16 months later the world is catching up with the genetically modified plague China created. It escaped the laboratory in Wuhan. As we reported to you. When China realized the genie was out of the bottle they infected the world. Chinese tourists were sent world wide to spread the plague. The new untold story is using the gene DNA or RNA editing  scissors what evil that  took years to create can be done in weeks.  The CRISPR-Cas9 system in the lab is a great danger to mankind.. New horrors are in the works. The story is not being told……. Read for yourself what the CRISPR can do:
https://medlineplus.gov/genetics/understanding/genomicresearch/genomeediting/
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US up premarket after weekend crypto sell-off

https://youtu.be/3nZzwPuE2cQ

Stock indexes in the United States traded higher in the premarket session on Monday as investors analyzed the fallout from this weekend’s cryptocurrency sell-off. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded double-digit plunges on Sunday, as the ramifications of China’s cryptocurrency crackdown continued. Meanwhile, the fight over infrastructure reached new heights with the GOP casting fresh doubts on the bill, as US President Joe Biden insisted that new corporate tax hikes offset additional spending. The three major indexes are heading into this week following a multi-week stretch of volatile trading. Investors have become increasingly jittery about the prospects of elevated, lasting inflation during the post-pandemic economic recovery. These concerns have hit growth stocks like technology companies especially hard, with the Amazon- and Tesla-heavy consumer discretionary sector down 5.2% in the S&P 500 over the past month, and the information technology sector off by 4.4%.  The Dow Jones increased by 0.39% at 4:25 am  ET,while the Nasdaq 100 was up by 0.49% at the same time. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.44%.

Later this week, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its April personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index on Friday. The headline print is expected to show a rise of 3.5% in April over last year for the biggest increase since 2008, according to Bloomberg consensus data. Stripping away volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core PCE is expected to have increased by 2.9% in April over last year, which would be the largest jump in more than two decades. The core PCE serves as the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation.  But even given these expected increases, many economists have encouraged investors to keep the rises in perspective.

“Although inflation expectations have moved up, our replication of the Fed’s reference measure is still below the levels seen in the 2001-2007 expansion,” Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a note Monday. 

“Ultimately, the biggest question is whether the economy will overheat, i.e. whether output and employment will rise substantially above potential,” he added. “We don’t expect this because the starting point is one of sizable slack—especially if we consider not just GDP-based but also employment-based measures of the output gap—and because growth is likely to slow from its current rapid pace as the fiscal impulse turns negative next year.”  Nick Note: we have more or less maintained the 13500 area. A very good sign. You need to understand this is as mush a waiting game as it is a simple trade. Why do it? because it could well be one of the great trades. No promises but it is worth a shot. In fact its worth 2 bites out of the apple.

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AstraZeneca’s COVID vaccine slightly less effective against variant found in India, CEO tells FT

(Reuters) – AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine was  slightly less effective against the variant first found in India than the strain identified in Kent, the company’s Chief Executive Officer Pascal Soriot said in an interview with Financial Times on Friday. He added the company is in talks with governments, including the United Kingdom, about new contracts for booster doses. Nick Note: Stick with the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine. No need to screw with the Astr Zanica desperado vaccine. Get the best!

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US Composite PMI at record high 68.1 in May

  • US Manufacturing PMI rose to a new series high in May.
  • US Dollar Index rose above 90.00 after the data.

The business activity in the US manufacturing sector continued to expand at a robust pace in May with the IHS Markit’s Manufacturing PMI rising to a new series high of 61.5 from 60.5 in April. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 60.2. Further details of the publication revealed that the Employment Index edged lower to 53.3, the lowest level since December, from 55.7 in April. On a negative note, “input costs rose in May at a pace not seen since July 2008,” the IHS Markit noted. Moreover, the ISM Services PMI also notched a new series high at 70.1, improving from 64.7 in April. Finally, the Composite PMI jumped to 68.1 from 63.5. Commenting on the data, “the US economy saw a spectacular acceleration of growth in May, the rate of expansion of business activity soaring well above anything previously recorded in recent history as the economy continued to reopen from COVID19 restrictions,” noted Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at the IHS Markit. “The May survey also brings further concerns in relation to inflation, however, as the growth surge continued to result in ever-higher prices,” Williams added. “Average selling prices for goods and services are both rising at unprecedented rates, which will feed through to higher consumer inflation in coming months.” Nick Note: This report stopped me dead in the water. What a incredible upsurge in business activity. More then even i expected. It show me the economic boom coming is more far more then any of us are anticipating. The inflation component is picking up reflation. Come off a deflation and any increases in activity causes a inflation bubble in the numbers. By the end of the year the reflation will be over as pipelines fill back up. It is not a efficient process. As you are seeing many businesses did not see and still do not see the boom coming. Now they are scrambling for inventory. And in many cases they are doubling their orders and their will be continuing errors in inventory allocations…

 

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ECB’s Lagarde: Inflation rise only temporary

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated on Friday that the inflation rises this year are only temporary and that it would go back to pre-pandemic levels in 2022.Speaking at a press conference following the Eurogroup meeting in Lisbon, Lagarde also noted that she believes the European economy was in a recovery process but remained cautious saying that it was still uncertain. Additionally, she noted that given this uncertainty “coordinated policies will continue to be needed for months to come,” adding that the ECB should “see through the period of higher inflation.” Lagarde also commented that the central bank was closely monitoring the rise that has been seen in yields and that they remain committed to preserving favourable conditions, but noted that it was “too early to debate long term issues, too early to ask medium-to-long-term questions.”

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Stocks climb with tech shares, Treasury yields fall, cryptos bounce

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stock indexes around the globe were mostly higher on Thursday, with Wall Street led by gains in technology shares, while U.S. Treasury yields fell after a weaker-than-expected U.S. business activity reading. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index fell to 31.5 from 50.2 in April, its highest pace in nearly half a century. The reading was shy of economists’ expectations of 43.0, a Reuters poll found. Cryptocurrencies bounced back from their recent sharp drop. Bitcoin was most recently up 13.4% at $41,812 after plummeting to 54% below its record high hit just over a month ago after some of its prominent backers reiterated their support for the digital currency. Smaller rival Ether gained 19.5% to $2,911. On Wednesday, it fell 22.8%, its biggest daily fall since March 2020. Investors also are still digesting minutes from Fed’s meeting last month, which showed a number of officials thought that if the recovery holds up, it might be appropriate to “begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases.”

The S&P 500 technology index was up 1.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 220.59 points, or 0.65%, to 34,116.63, the S&P 500 gained 39.94 points, or 0.97%, to 4,155.62 and the Nasdaq Composite added 209.50 points, or 1.58%, to 13,509.24.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 1.23% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.87%. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes fell 4.3 basis points to 1.640% and the breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) US5YTIP=RR slid to 2.608%. Market expectations of a further rise in inflation would need evidence of the economy moving past full employment very, very rapidly, said Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA LLC. “We’ve probably already reached the peak level of economic activity, and that probably happened in March and April,” Ricchiuto added. In the foreign exchange market, the dollar lost ground with weakening Treasury yields. The bounces in cryptocurrencies came after crypto backers such as Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s Elon Musk indicated their support on Wednesday. Concerns over tighter regulation in China and unease over the extent of leveraged positions in the cryptocurrency world had caused this week’s big selloff. Outages at several major trading platforms during the maelstrom, which also set ether tumbling nearly 50%, did little to inspire confidence. SPACs – special purpose vehicles set up and listed to buy up other firms – enjoyed huge growth last year, as did the ARK innovation fund that focuses on tech companies. Oil prices slipped, with Brent crude down 0.7% at $66.21 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate U.S. oil down 0.6% at $62.97.

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US markets open higher after US: Weekly Initial Jobless Claims decline to 444K vs. 450K expected

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims in the US decreased by 44,000.

There were 444,000 initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US during the week ending May 15, the data published by the US Department of Labor (DOL) revealed on Thursday. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 450,000 and followed the previous print of 478,000 (revised from 473,000). “The 4-week moving average was 504,750, a decrease of 30,500 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020, when it was 225,500.” “The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.7% for the week ending May 8, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate.” Stock indexes in the United States began Thursday’s trading session higher after the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell more than expected. In business news, Swedish oat-milk maker Oatly Group AB is set to debut on the Nasdaq later today. The Dow Jones Industrial   80 points  higher with Microsoft Corp. growing 1.15%. The Nasdaq 100 was 200 points higher. Copart Inc. jumped 5.19%. The S&P 500 gained 30 points. Enphase Energy was the best performer, increasing 5.41%. Nick Note: Do not stay stuck on Pandemic……. Its the greatest recovery ever……….

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S&P 500 Index to advance nicely towards 4350 over the next months – Credit Suisse

https://youtu.be/7dvXmB1QMsc

The S&P 500 has fallen back towards what economists at Credit Suisse expect to define the bottom end of this range and key support levels at 4071/35, which includes the 63-day average and uptrend from November. They believe the choppy current consolidation can continue over the coming weeks, however the underlying bull trend remains strong and the index is eventually expected to move up to 4350 over the subsequent few months post this consolidation phase.

S&P 500 looks for further consolidation rather than a drawdown

“We maintain our base case of looking for a corrective/consolidation phase to emerge over the next few weeks, however we still believe the November uptrend at 4071, as well as the 63-day average and gap support at 4034/19 will floor the market to avoid a larger drawdown and keep the market in a consolidative range.”  “A close below 4020/19 though would instead warn of a more protracted and concerted setback with supports seen next at 3950, then 3920, where we would look for fresh buyers to show.” “Above 4188 is needed to suggest the correction is already over for strength back to 4238, then 4260. Big picture, we look for a move to 4350.” Nick Note: I want to be crystal clear here. My often repeated refrain. The biggest greatest economic recovery and stock market rally in history has begun. At first with fits and starts as the no minds the stupid money frets about stupid shit. Like mistaking reflation as inflation…. or my favorite the FED will start the dreaded taper no longer buying 150 billiob a month in securities and raise rates.   Or another worry supply chain shortages inducing TEMPORARY price increases. It is amazing to me how STUPID THE STUPID MONEY REALLY IS.  DAH! why would you maintain inventories or build inventories during a depression induced by a plague. Its pretty simple you gear up production as you see demand returning… And that is exactly what is happening. I predict this will be our greatest trade ever. I hope and pray your smart enough and solvent enough to be their for what i believe could be the greatest market pay day ever.

 

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Cisco revenue at $12.8B in Q3, up 7% YoY JD.com’s Q1 revenue soars 39% YoY to $31B

Cisco Systems Inc. reported on Wednesday that its revenue in the third fiscal quarter of 2021 amounted to $12.8 billion, marking a 7% increase year-over-year. The company’s net income rose 3% on an annual basis to reach $2.9 billion, while diluted earnings per share went up by 5% to $0.68. Operating income totaled $3.5 billion, rising by 1% compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2020. “Cisco had a great quarter with strong demand across the business,” said CEO of Cisco Chuck Robbins. “We are confident in our strategy and our ability to lead the next phase of the recovery as our customers accelerate their adoption of hybrid work, digital transformation, cloud, and continued strong uptake of our subscription-based offerings.” Cisco’s shares were 5.76% down in after-hours trading following the release of the report.

JD.com’s Q1 revenue soars 39% YoY to $31B

JD.com Inc. revealed on Wednesday that its revenue in the first fiscal quarter jumped 39% year-over-year to come in at $31 billion. The e-commerce firm’s income from operations dropped 26.1% during the same period to $0.3 billion, while its net income surged over 227% to $0.6 billion, or $0.34 per share. The number of active customer accounts soared 29% to 499.8 million in the twelve months ending March 31. “As our strong growth momentum from last year continued into the first quarter of 2021, we are also encouraged by the diversification of our revenue streams with an increasing contribution from service revenues,” JD.com CFO Sandy Xu commented.