Biden’s speech to Congress is a once unthinkable call for a socialist transformation

On Wednesday, Joe Biden’s first address to a joint session of Congress, on the eve of his first 100 days in office, followed the Academy Awards with a small, physically distanced gathering that, given the US president’s love of trains, might have switched to a railway station too. His 65-minute speech, the most important since his inauguration 99 days ago, could be summed up with three Bs: Big (in ambition), Boring (at times) and Bipartisan (or maybe not so much, judging by Republican grimaces). The  new age was best summed up in a single image: behind “Uncle Joe”, the 78-year-old white man at the lectern, sat two women, Vice-President Kamala Harris and the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi – both from deeply liberal California. “Madam Vice-President,” Biden said. “No President has ever said those words from this podium … and it’s about time.” Harris and Pelosi exchanged glances above their masks. That led him to Wednesday night’s once unthinkable menu of grand plans for coronavirus relief, building infrastructure and helping families, measured not in billions but trillions of dollars. In the choice between going big and going bipartisan, big is winning, remaking America with government at the centre. “My fellow Americans, trickle-down economics has never worked,” he said, effectively sounding the death knell for Ronald Reagan’s low-tax logic that has been Republican religion for four decades and within which even Bill Clinton and Barack Obama operated. “It’s time to grow the economy from the bottom up and middle out.” “The American Jobs Plan is a blue-collar blueprint to build America,” Biden said. “And it recognises something I’ve always said. [There are] good guys and women on Wall Street, but Wall Street didn’t build this country. The middle class built this country. And unions build the middle class.” He talked about green energy and corporate tax reform and described healthcare as “a right, not a privilege”. Democrats were delighted by it all, rising to their feet and clapping with such enthusiasm that it almost compensated for their diminished numbers. Republicans joined in when Biden warned of the threat posed by China (“deadly earnest on becoming the most significant, consequential nation in the world”) and struck some Trumpian notes about American products made in America. “There’s no reason the blades for wind turbines can’t be built in Pittsburgh instead of Beijing.” But they were silent, stony faced and riveted to their seats on many of the applause lines. Senator Lindsey Graham frowned, a hand to his chin. Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, clapped limply if at all. Hours earlier, perhaps seeing Harris and Pelosi in his mind’s eye, McConnell had warned: “Behind President Biden’s familiar face, it’s like the most radical Washington Democrats have been handed the keys, and they’re trying to speed as far left as they can possibly go before American voters ask for their car back.” “Boring, but radical,” was the verdict of Senator Ted Cruz who, as if to prove it, looked like he was dozing off. Nick Note: Happy May day. It was the worker bees whose hands built Americas infrastructure. But that would have not been possible without the engineers, Financiers and the managers. To discourage and worse yet disparage the innovators, investors and the private side means you have a government run system that will be full of grennie winniee fairy tails, graft and waste run by the most inept corrupt idiots on the planet. This has been tried before it does not work. Its the californication of America

 

US closes lower as virus worries trump upbeat earnings

S&P 500 falls, still on track for third straight month of gains

(Reuters) – The S&P 500 fell in early afternoon trading on Friday, after a slew of strong quarterly earnings and upbeat economic data put the benchmark index on track for a third straight month of gains. The Nasdaq is set for six consecutive months of gains, boosted by impressive results from big technology companies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on course to end in the positive territory for three months in a row. Amazon.com Inc rose 1.1% after it posted record profit and signaled that consumers would keep spending in a growing U.S. economy and converts to online shopping are not likely to leave. Twitter Inc plunged 12.8% as it offered tepid revenue forecast for the second quarter, saying user growth could slow as the boost seen during the pandemic fizzles. Other high-flying stocks including Microsoft Corp, Facebook Inc, Alphabet Inc and Apple Inc fell between 0.3% and 1.5%. Even though megacap favorites posted largely upbeat earnings in the first quarter, their shares have struggled to maintain the upward trajectory they had coming into reporting season. Nine of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors were trading lower, with technology, materials and energy falling more than 1% each.

Of the 303 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported so far, 87.1% have topped analysts’ earnings estimates, with Refinitiv IBES data now predicting a 46.3% jump in profit growth.

Data on Friday showed U.S. consumer spending rebounded in March amid a surge in income as households received additional COVID-19 pandemic relief money from the government. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 2.12-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 1.98-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 44 new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 52 new highs and 26 new lows. Nick Note: To me this was end of the month window dressing…. Many hedge funds are short and losing a lot of money. Next week we get the rest of first quarter earnings reports. AND on Friday the April monthly employment report. I belive this rally which in the NASDQ 100 will continue. we are only off 200 points from the all time record high…. Pretty impressive rally to date!

US consumer confidence rises in April

Consumer confidence in the United States improved in April, the University of Michigan said in its latest preliminary survey published on Friday. The consumer sentiment index advanced by 4% on a monthly level, topping the analysts’ expectations and reaching 88.3. Compared to April 2020, the index soared 23%. Current economic conditions climbed to 97.2, after a 4.5% increase on a monthly basis, and a 30.8% surge compared to the same month the year prior. The index of consumer expectations moved up by 3.8% compared to the previous month’s figure, to amount to 82.7, which is 18% above the level reported in the fourth month of 2020. “The April survey recorded continued gains in consumer confidence due to a growing sense that the upward momentum in jobs and incomes will persist. The renewed confidence is due to record federal stimulus spending, both recently passed and proposed, as well as the positive impact from a growing share of the population who are vaccinated,” the report elaborated. Nick Note: Blazing hot. sooner or later the wooden heads will figure out this is real and stampede into the stock market

US initial jobless claims down by 13,000 to 553,000

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending April 23 fell by 13,000 compared to the previous week’s revised figure to land at 553,000, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The 4-week moving average was 611,750, a decrease of 44,000 from the previous week’s revised average and the lowest level since March 14, 2020. The previous week’s level was revised up by 19,000 to 566,000. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6% for the week ending April 17, unchanged compared to the previous week. Insured unemployment during the same week was 3,660,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised level. Nick Note: talk about firing on all cylinders….. zOOOM ZOOM ZOOOOOOOM

US personal spending up 4.2% in March Personal income increased 21%

Consumer spending climbs solid 4.2% in March while incomes soar 21.1%, good signs for future economic growth

WASHINGTON (AP) — Consumer spending climbs solid 4.2% in March while incomes soar 21.1%, good signs for future economic growth. On the other hand, real personal spending expanded by 3.6%, failing to meet market estimates.

Personal income increased $4.21 trillion (21.1%

Slightly more than the estimates suggest. Disposable personal income (DPI) grew $4.18 trillion (23.6%) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) $616 billion (4.2%). “The increase in personal income in March largely reflected an increase in government social benefits. Within government social benefits, ‘other’ social benefits increased. The American Rescue Plan Act established an additional round of direct economic impact payments to households,” the report explained. Nick Note: if you are talking personal spending your talking AMAZON. Retail is dead in America bye bye mom and pop mall and high street shops. NOWAY! they can compete. Its the dawing of a new age……..

Barclays boss predicts biggest economic boom since 1948

The UK is about to experience its biggest economic boom since the aftermath of World War Two, according to Barclays boss Jes Staley. His upbeat assessment came as Barclays revealed its profits for the first three months of this year had more than doubled from a year earlier to £2.4bn. “We estimate the UK economy will grow at its fastest rate since 1948. That’s pretty spectacular,” he said. The vaccine programme and built-up savings will help to drive the rebound. Mr Staley said that a combination of the successful vaccine rollout and Barclays’ estimate of an extra £200bn sitting in customer and company bank accounts meant the UK would join the US in seeing some of the fastest economic growth in decades. The boost in Barclays’ latest profits was almost entirely driven by a more confident view on how many of its loans would be repaid. This time last year, the bank set aside more than £2bn to cover the risks that borrowers would be unable to repay all of their debts. This time round they are setting aside just £55m. Interestingly, Barclays – unlike other big banks in the UK and US – have decided not to adjust previous estimates of bad loan previsions, but hinted that they will do so in future. It will be equally interesting to watch just how much of their total £9bn kitty for future estimated debt defaults they are prepared to reconsider. Assuming the worst regarding future defaults is sometimes called “stuffing the cookie jar” – a jar that can be raided when needed to boost future earnings. All banks do this to a greater or lesser degree, But Mr Staley seems convinced that despite virus-related disasters in developing economies such as India and new lockdowns in developed counties such as Japan, the overall picture looks to be improving. He also concedes that many business sectors (like hospitality and leisure) have faced desperately challenging circumstances and it is unclear how many of the five million workers still on furlough can expect to return to full-time work. There are many business owners who will not recognise the rosy picture he paints of the UK’s economic future. It is probably wrong to talk in terms of an economic boom after we have seen the biggest economic downturn in 300 years, but Mr Staley is in tune with his US counterparts when he hopes and expects that, for him and his many business customers, the worst is behind us. Nick Note: DO not miss out on the greatest economic boom and stock market rally ever. Of course they are going to TRY and shake you out of this trade……SO

Amazon’s revenue surges 44% to 108.5 billion in Q1

Amazon (AMZN) reported better-than-expected first-quarter results on Thursday, with quarterly revenue surging past $100 billion again. Here’s what the company reported in its fiscal first-quarter results, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

  • Revenue: $108.5 billion vs. $104.57 billion expected
  • Earnings per share: $15.79 vs. $9.69 expected

Revenue increased 44% to $108.5 billion in the quarter versus $75.5 billion in the same quarter a year ago. During the first quarter, Amazon’s core online stores business saw its net sales grow 44% to $52.9 billion compared to $36.65 billion in the year-ago quarter. Outside of e-commerce, Amazon Web Services’ net sales grew 32% from a year ago to $13.5 billion. “A lot of people were wondering if the stay-at-home theme is still intact, especially with the vaccine rollout, but what this company has proven today, is that a lot of these gains that they made in a pandemic will be potentially lasting. I mean there is a structural shift in consumer behavior that will benefit Amazon, not just on the e-commerce side but the cloud business,” CFRA analyst Tuna Amobi told Yahoo Finance Live. For the second quarter, Amazon said it expects revenues to be between $110 billion and $116 billion, an increase between 24% and 30% from the same period a year ago. Amazon, which recently revealed it has more than 200 million paid Prime members globally, will host its Prime Day during the second quarter. CFRA’s Amobi expects Prime Day to be “huge,” which he notes is consistent with prior years, which have set new records.  “We have no reason to believe that this year is going to be any different, especially with those kinds of membership growth,” he said, adding that “all of the building blocks are in place” for Prime to be a “major profit center.”  Amobi, who has a price target of $3,800 on Amazon’s stock, said it’s possible the stock could hit “way above” his price target, suggesting that it might not be “too long before we’d be looking at potentially at a stock that would be trading way over $4,000.” Shares of Amazon rose nearly 3% in the after-hours session to last trade near $3,574.   Nick Note: great social changes occur in in Floods, famous, war, insurrections and plagues.   In the case of the pandemic it has ushered in the digital  internet age. where shopping, communication, socializing and working have moved to the digital platforms. And the winners are the companies that facilitate things like access like Apple and contact between people like Facebook, entertainment like youTube/ Netfelix and shopping like Amazon and  advertising by tracking of peoples profile and wants like Google. The stock market still has not priced in these profound changes

Twitter’s revenue up 28% to $1.04B in Q1 Facebook posts better than expected Q1 earnings, ad revenue soars

Facebook (FB) on Wednesday reported first quarter earnings that handily topped expectations, as political and regulatory crises continued to swirl around the leading social network, but were offset by A nearly 50% surge in advertising revenues. Here’s a snapshot of key metrics expected versus analyst expectations, according to a Bloomberg consensus forecast of Wall Street analysts:

  • Revenue: $26.17 billion vs $23.72 billion estimated
  • Advertising revenue: $25.44 billion vs. $23.27 billion estimated
  • Earnings per share (Adjusted): $3.30 vs $2.61 expected
  • Daily Active Users (DAU): 1.88 billion vs 1.866.6 billion estimate
  • Monthly Active Users (MAU): 2.85 billion vs 2.830 billion estimated

Advertising, the fulcrum of Facebook’s business model, jumped by 46% year over year, the company said, powered by a slow but steady rise in DAUs and MAUs.  “We had a strong quarter as we helped people stay connected and businesses grow,” said Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook founder and CEO. “We will continue to invest aggressively to deliver new and meaningful experiences for years to come, including in newer areas like augmented and virtual reality, commerce, and the creator economy.”

Twitter’s revenue up 28% to $1.04B in Q1
  • The company reported revenue of $1.04 billion for the quarter, which was up 28% from $808 million a year prior.
  • Twitter guided that it is expecting revenue between $980 million and $1.08 billion in the second quarter. Analysts were expecting guidance of $1.06 billion on average, according to Refinitiv.
  • Twitter’s total number of monetizable daily users grew by 7 million from the fourth quarter to 199 million but fell shy of analysts’ expectations of 200 million.

Twitter’s stock was down more than 11% in after-hours trading on Thursday after the company released its first-quarter earnings, missing on user growth expectations and providing lower revenue guidance for the second quarter than expected. Here’s what Twitter reported versus Wall Street’s estimates:

  • Earnings: 16 cents per share, adjusted, vs. 14 cents forecast by Refinitiv
  • Revenue: $1.04 billion vs. $1.03 billion forecast by Refinitiv
  • Monetizable daily active users (mDAUs): 199 million vs. 200 million expected forecast by FactSet

The company reported revenue of $1.04 billion for the quarter, which was up 28% from $808 million a year prior. Twitter also reported a profit of $68 million, contrasted with a loss of $8.4 million a year ago. Twitter guided that it is expecting revenue between $980 million and $1.08 billion in the second quarter. Analysts were expecting guidance of $1.06 billion on average, according to Refinitiv. Twitter’s total number of monetizable daily users grew by 7 million from the fourth quarter to 199 million but fell shy of analysts’ expectations of 200 million. The user base was up 20% compared with a year ago. The quarter marked Twitter’s first period mostly without the presence of former President Donald Trump after he was removed from the service following the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. Twitter ad revenue grew 32% year over year to $899 million, according to the report, with total ad engagement growing 11% over the same period. The company said it is still too early to understand the impact of Apple’s privacy changes in iOS 14.5. However, Twitter pointed out that its integration of Apple’s SKAdNetwork enabled the company to increase by 30% the total number of iOS devices it can reach with its Mobile Application Promotion (MAP) offering. Nick Note: These are some kick ass earnings.. like something never seen before. That could not happen expect for 2 things…… Vaccinations setting the captives free and happy checks pouring into the economy

Light at end of the tunnel’: New York mayor envisions full reopening by July 1

NEW YORK — New York City aims to “fully reopen” on July 1 after more than a year of closures and capacity restrictions, Mayor Bill de Blasio said on Thursday, citing satisfactory progress in its vaccination campaign. “We are ready to bring New York City back fully on July 1,” de Blasio told a news briefing. “Now we can see that light at the end of the tunnel.” De Blasio said he had not discussed the city’s reopening date with Governor Andrew Cuomo but his announcement comes a day after Cuomo lifted restrictions that would clear the way for a revival of the city’s nightlife. The state has the power to impose or lift restrictions on restaurants and other venues. “I think the best way to proceed here is to set out the city’s vision,” de Blasio said. Even though the July 1 date is still aspirational, the mayor’s announcement is significant in that New York is the country’s most populous city and was the early epicenter of the pandemic as the virus began sweeping across the United States last spring. The mayor said his optimism on the city’s imminent return to normal reflected the success of a massive drive to get New Yorkers vaccinated. He said 6.4 million doses of vaccine have been administered in the city of more than 8 million residents. While the mayor acknowledged the city needed to make more progress on vaccinations, he said more than 70% of New Yorkers have had at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine. “People are showing up,” he said. “We need to keep the momentum going,” he added. “This is exactly how we get to the full reopening we’re all looking forward to.” Coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths have trended lower in New York City since the beginning of the year. On a seven-day rolling average, the city reported over 7,000 new cases a day at the outbreak’s peak in January. By March new infections ebbed to 4,000 a day and now average about 2,000 a day. De Blasio did not provide clear guidelines on whether those attending shows, dining indoors or frequenting gyms and salons would have to adhere to any specific requirements, such as presenting proof of vaccination. “There certainly will be particular institutions that may choose to have rules around a vaccination or testing,” de Blasio told reporters, adding that the city will keep monitoring COVID-19 data and adjust its approach accordingly. Currently, the New York Yankees and Mets require those attending baseball games to take a rapid COVID-19 test or show proof of vaccination before gaining admission to their ballparks in keeping with New York state guidelines. Attendance is limited to 20% of capacity. New York City theaters have started to reopen this month for special events in front of limited indoor audiences. Some producers have targeted June 1 for their reopening dates, though many Broadway shows are not expected to pull back the curtains until September.. On Wednesday, Cuomo set a date for the end of a curfew that had forced city restaurants to end their bar and food service by midnight. The curfew would end on May 17 for outdoor dining areas and on May 31 for indoors, he said. The governor also allowed seating at bars across the state to reopen for the first time on May 3. In addition, Cuomo said capacity limits would increase starting May 15 for several businesses outside of New York City, including gyms and casinos. Offices across the state, including in the city, will be able to increase capacity from 50% to 75%, the governor said. Nick Note: Set the captivities free. And they will spend money making up for lost time. This is the kind of thing that is driving the red hot economy.

Royal Caribbean CEO Sees Return to Cruising by July as CDC Clarifies Guidance

It’s looking increasingly likely that cruise ships will resume sailing out of U.S. ports in July, a prospect that Royal Caribbean Group CEO Richard Fain thinks is realistic. Late Wednesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sent a letter to the cruise operators updating the conditional sailing order that’s been in effect since October, according to USA Today. Fain told Barron’s in an interview Thursday morning that the CDC clarified and amplified its guidance for the order, noting that there are two paths to the resumption of sailing: “One path is if we require nearly all of our guests to be vaccinated. The other path is if we don’t have nearly everybody vaccinated.”

Under the CDC’s updated guidance, cruise ships can bypass previously mandated test cruises and start regular passenger sailings if 98% of crew and 95% of passengers are fully vaccinated, according to Patrick Scholes, an analyst at Truist Securities. Most children, however, aren’t eligible for Covid vaccines yet, posing a potential problem on some cruises. “If we opt for the vaccinated route, for many our cruises that’s simply not a problem because the number of children is small enough that it doesn’t make that much of a difference,” Fain said. For other cruises, he said, “It makes a difference but again, when the vaccines for the 12- to 15-year-olds become available, which is expected relatively soon, that would go a long way to help that too.” The large U.S. cruise operators— Royal Caribbean Group (ticker: RCL), Carnival (CCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)—have largely been shut down since March 2020 due to the pandemic, though there have been limited sailings in Europe and Asia. Getting the green light from the CDC, which oversees U.S. ports, would be a huge boost for an industry that has scrambled to stay afloat and been forced to raise billions of fresh capital. Since the suspension of cruises 13 months ago, Royal Caribbean has raised about $12.3 billion of capital—in moves that sharply increase its debt load and are dilutive to earnings. The company’s monthly cash burn in the first quarter was about $300 million. As of March 31, the company’s liquidity totaled about $5.8 billion, including $5.1 billion of cash. On Thursday morning, Miami-based Royal Caribbean reported an adjusted first-quarter loss of $4.44 a share, compared with a loss of $1.48 a year earlier—another in a series of huge losses owing to the pandemic. Revenue plunged to $42 million versus $2 billion in the corresponding quarter in 2020. The stock was at $86 and change late Thursday morning, down about 0.8% on the day’s trading. The shares have gained about 17% this year. The company, which has four ships sailing outside of U.S. waters in places like the Canary Islands, Greece, and Singapore, has announced itineraries for 11 additional ships in the Caribbean, including the Bahamas and Bermuda, and Europe. Alaska is an important cruise destination in the summer, but the Canadian government is banning large cruise vessels from its waters into 2022. Fain said he is “a little less confident about that [getting resolved] because it involves more parties,” but he added that “there’s good chance we can sort that out.” Fain said 2022 will involve “a little bit a transition” for the company but that he’s confident it will be a good year, owing to the pent-up demand among cruise takers and the growing adoption of Covid vaccines, among other factors. Royal Caribbean’s consensus adjusted FactSet profit estimate for 2022 is $1.43 a share and $6.20 in 2023, up from minus $13.65 this year. The company earned $9.54 a share in 2019 before the pandemic. Nick Note: i am not so sure this is so smart. We shall see. I wish them well