(Bloomberg) — U.S. housing starts rebounded sharply in March to the highest since 2006, exceeding forecasts and indicating residential construction is getting back on track after a winter storm-related setback. Residential starts jumped 19.4% last month to a 1.74 million annualized rate, according to government data released Friday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey called for a 1.61 million pace. Applications to build also climbed. The figures suggest that homebuilders are making progress on elevated construction backlogs stemming from both strong housing demand during the pandemic and inclement winter weather. While home sales have softened since October, they are still above pre-pandemic levels, indicating that construction activity will remain strong for some time. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said this week that most Fed policy makers don’t see raising interest rates until 2024, which should help keep mortgage rates low and support the housing market. Builders, nonetheless, are contending with rising construction materials prices, a challenging supply chain and limited availability of skilled workers. Those higher costs are contributing to soaring home prices that risk restraining demand. Applications to build, a proxy for future construction, increased 2.7% to an annualized 1.77 million units, while the number of one-family homes authorized for construction but not yet started — a measure of backlogs — rose to 124,000 in March, the most since May 2007. A report on Thursday showed a measure of homebuilder sentiment improved in April, suggesting firms see steady growth in the housing market heading into the second quarter. March data on both existing and new home sales will be released next week. Single-family starts rose 15.3% in March to an annualized 1.24 million, close to the highest since 2006Multifamily starts — which tend to be volatile and include apartment buildings and condominiums — increased 30.8%Construction rose in three of four regions, led by a surge in the Midwest and large gains in the Northeast and South The number of all types of homes authorized for construction but not yet started rose to 217,000 in March, the highest since August 2006Nick note: If the housing market is booming and home sales are booming which they are and the stock market is achieving record highs every other day we could safely asume its a booming economy. And it will boom till its busts. Here is a news flash… Happy checks which have lit the fuse on this rocket will run out in 3 months……. So ride the rocket for now. And ETF traders you have to trade for the long haul and position yourself for the bust you can’t see right now. But lets face facts you live in the now whats my balalance NOT the future… thats my job….
Americans are feeling the best they’ve felt since the pandemic began, consumer survey shows
Consumer sentiment index rose to 86.5 in April from 84.9 in the prior month, according to a preliminary survey by the University of Michigan
Stimulus checks, rising coronavirus vaccinations and a rapidly growing economy lifted the spirits of Americans in early April and pushed a closely followed survey of consumer attitudes to a 13-month high. The consumer sentiment index rose to 86.5 in April from 84.9 in the prior month, according to a preliminary survey by the University of Michigan. That’s the highest level since the pandemic erupted in the U.S. in March 2020. The index had touched a 16-year high of 101 just a month earlier. The attitude of Americans about their own personal finances and the broader economy right now also climbed to a 13-month high. The so-called index of current conditions rose to 97.2 from 93 in March. By comparison, the index stood at 114.8 in February 2020. A forward-looking gauge on what consumers expect six months from now, however, showed lingering anxiety about the pandemic, including the safety of coronavirus vaccines. The index was unchanged at 79.7. What also is playing into the anxiety of Americans is higher inflation. Consumers tend to notice higher prices initially through rising gasoline prices, which have climbed sharply since the end of last year. Consumers expect the rate of inflation, now at 2.6%, to increase to as high as 3.7%. The last time they expected such a relatively high rate of inflation was a decade ago. Yet like senior Federal Reserve officials, consumers expect inflation to taper off in the longer run to a 2.7% annual rate. On the brighter side, half of all those survey expect a decline in unemployment. That’s the highest percentage ever recorded, the University of Michigan said. The U.S. is surging again as government stimulus money flows into the economy, governments relax pandemic restrictions and businesses seek to hire in anticipation of strong sales in the months ahead. The government on Thursday reported a 10% increase in U.S. retail sales in March while unemployment claims sank almost 200,000 to a new pandemic low of 576,000. The only obstacle to growth? Another spike in coronavirus cases. The number of people catching the virus is no longer declining, but it hasn’t risen very much, either. So long as the virus remains contained, the economy should keep building momentum. “Increasingly widespread rollout of vaccines is clearly having a beneficial impact on consumer sentiment and confidence,” said chief economist Joshua Shapiro of MFR Inc. Nick Note: Another important report. People who are not jazzed about their life and the economy do not buy stocks. So people love what they are seeing they are all in. But as far as stocks they have only deployed half the money in their trading accounts. We will try to ride this surge. When they get All in we will get ALL out..
Pfizer CEO: Third shot may be needed after 12 months
Morgan Stanley handily beats first-quarter trading and investment-banking estimates
- The bank posted first-quarter profit of $4.1 billion, or $2.19 a share. The firm said that excluding merger related expenses, adjusted profit was $2.22 a share; analysts had expected $1.70.
- Revenue of $15.7 billion vs $14.1 billion estimate.
Morgan Stanley said Friday that first-quarter profit and revenue beat expectations on stronger-than-expected trading and investment banking results. The bank posted profit of $4.1 billion, or $2.19 a share, more than double the $1.7 billion earnings of the year-earlier period. The firm said that excluding merger related expenses, adjusted profit was $2.22 a share; analysts had expected $1.70. Expectations for Morgan Stanley are running high after rivals posted strong trading and investment banking results. The boom in SPAC-issuance has led to a bonanza in fees for equity capital markets desks, and trading desks profited from strong activity across fixed income and stock markets. Furthermore, buoyant stock markets should help Morgan Stanley’s biggest single division, wealth management, as fees are typically a percentage of clients’ assets under management. CEO James Gorman announced $20 billion in deals last year, marking the most aggressive takeovers since the financial crisis. He spent $13 billion to acquire E-Trade to further his reach with the mass affluent, and $7 billion to buy Eaton Vance to bulk up his investment management business. The Eaton Vance acquisition closed during the first quarter. Morgan Stanley is the last of the six largest U.S. banks to report first-quarter earnings. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup all beat analysts’ expectations with help from releasing money set aside earlier for loan losses. Key rival Goldman Sachs beat estimates on strong advisory and trading results. Nick Note: they took a billion dollar counter party loss and still made 4 billion. As a point in fact the CFD margin call was the biggest ever and met by counter party guarantees. If these were instruments were futures they would have wiped out everyone and their dog including the exchanges…….
Investors pour cash into equity, bond funds, dump cash – BofA
LONDON (Reuters) – Investors poured a hefty $25.6 billion into equity funds in the week to Wednesday and $17.9 billion into bond funds, the largest inflow in 10 weeks, BofA’s flow data showed on Friday. In contrast, there was an outflow of $47.3 billion from cash funds, the largest in four months, BofA said. It noted that an inflow into global stocks over the past five months at $602 billion exceeds the inflow in the prior 12 years of $452 billion. BofA also pointed to strong flows into investment-grade bonds, emerging market equities. Tech sector inflows resumed too, with $1.6 billion received, the bank added. Nick Note: I want to again make it clear to you what is going on… When you do not make the millions i think you can once again its on you… I am doing my job. This is the biggest stock market rally EVER! and it still has room to go… the”experts” got their heads so far up their doctoral asses when they look up they see stars. They do not understand how big this is.. Eventually their aldgoes and high frequency trades will pick it up… The only problem is by the time they do it will be time to short
China’s GDP up 18.3% in first quarter China’s retail sales rise by 34.2% in March
China just reported its strongest quarterly growth in nearly three decades.
KEY POINTS
* Q1 GDP +18.3% y/y (f’cast +19%, Q4 +6.5%)
* Q1 GDP +0.6% q/q s/adj (f’cast +1.5%, Q4 +3.2% revised)
* March industrial output +14.1% y/y (f’cast +17.2%, Jan-Feb +35.1%)
* March retail sales +34.2% y/y (f’cast +28%, Jan-Feb +33.8%)
* Jan-March fixed asset investment +25.6% y/y (f’cast +25.3%, Jan-Feb +35%)
* Jan-March property investment +25.6% y/y (Jan-Feb +38.3%)
The world’s second largest economy grew 18.3% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to a year earlier, according to government statistics released Friday. That’s the best quarterly growth since 1992, when China started publishing such figures. The surge is mainly because of a low base effect, as China had shut down large swaths of its economy in early 2020 to contain the coronavirus outbreak. On a quarterly basis, the Chinese economy grew only 0.6% in the January-to-March period, according to the government. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the economy had expanded 6.5%. Still, the growth figures indicate that China’s economic recovery continues to gather steam. The world’s second largest economy has performed well relative to the rest of the globe. China was the only major economy to record growth in 2020, expanding 2.3% as many countries struggled to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Chinese authorities called last year’s performance “better than we had expected.” Earlier this week, customs statistics showed the country’s imports jumped more than 38% last month in US dollar terms compared to a year earlier, a sign that demand within China is picking up. Exports grew by nearly 31%
China’s retail sales rise by 34.2% in March
Retail sales of consumer goods for March in China landed above analysts’ projections surging by 32.2% compared to the same time last year to reach ¥3,548.4 billion, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Friday. The measure of total receipts of the retailed consumer goods in the first quarter of 2021 advanced by 33.9% on an annual basis to stand at ¥10,522.1 billion. The data for the three-month period analyzed by different areas showed the retail sales in urban areas reaching ¥9,134.5 billion, up by 34.6% year-on-year, while in rural areas the number increased by 29.4% to ¥1,387.5 billion. Nick Note: The markets do not see it yet. And have not priced in this monster world wide economic boom. The world is coming back faster then the algo and Wall Street pundits realize. the vast recoever is not priced into the stock market yet!
Dow closes above 34,000 pts, Nasdaq at record closing high
Stocks on Wall Street closed with sharp gains on Thursday with the Dow Jones finishing the session above 34,000 points for the first time ever and the Nasdaq 100 notching a record close as well.
Today’s rally on Wall Street comes after strong economic data suggested the US economy is on pace for a recovery from the coronavirus pandemic following a new round of stimulus and continued progress in vaccinations across the country.
Earlier in the day, the Census Bureau revealed that retail sales jumped 9.8% in March, leading President Joe Biden to proclaim that “America is coming back.” Meanwhile, investors digested a string of corporate earnings released prior to the session. The Dow Jones jumped 0.90% to reach 34,035.99 points at the closing bell. UnitedHealth Group was the strongest performer, soaring nearly 4%. The S&P 500 surged 1.11% at the end of trading with chip stocks leading the gains. The Nasdaq 100 rallied 1.61% to 14,026.195 points; Advanced Micro Devices and NVIDIA leaped over 5%. Nick Note: Rock on……. looks to me we still got some traction to the upside……
Moscow to close Kerch Strain until October…..Troops amusing at border
The Russian government announced on Thursday it will close Kerch Strait until October. The move, which will practically stop sea traffic from getting to Ukrainian ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk, comes hours after the United States imposed new sanctions against Kremlin. Kiev protested the decision, asserting that “this step is a flagrant violation of the right to freedom of navigation guaranteed by the [United Nations] Convention on the Law of the Sea.” Service members of the Ukrainian armed forces gather at fighting positions on the line of separation near the rebel-controlled city of Donetsk. Nick Note: the Ukrainians sealed their fate when they gave up their nukes. The Russians are testing Biden… He may fail the test. Giving Afghanistan to ISIS sends the wrong signal at the wrong time. Iran is going great guns on their nuclear program…..
Dow surpasses 34,000 point mark, reaches new record
The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared more than 280 points on Thursday, reaching another all-time high and surpassing, for the first time, the 34,000 point threshold. The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 extended gains, both climbing to record highs as well. The sentiment among traders was bolstered by upbeat data regarding the business inventories in the country, as well as the March figure for retail sales. Moreover, the initial jobless claims in the US dropped by 193,000 in the week ending April 10. The Dow Jones jumped 0.83% or 278 points at 10:45 am ET, while the Nasdaq 100 surged 1.38% at the same time. A minute later, the S&P 500 gained 0.92%. The euro declined 0.07% versus the dollar, selling for 1.19713 at 10:48 am ET.
April Empire State Regional Manufacturing Index 26.3 Vs. 19.2 Expected, 17.4 Prior
Business conditions in the New York region improved more than expected in April but growth remained “fairly subdued”, according to a survey released by the New York Fed on Monday.
US industrial production up 1.4% in March
Industrial production in the United States went up by 1.4% in March compared to the month before, data released by the Federal Reserve unveiled on Thursday. The increase came in below the analysts’ expectations. On an annual basis, total industrial production gained 1%. Manufacturing output was up 2.7% month on month while mining climbed 5.7% on a monthly basis. On the other hand, utilities output dropped 11.4%. The capacity utilization in the industrial sector in March stood at 74.4%, up by 1 percentage point month on month but down 5.2 percentage points below its long-run average.
Business inventories in US up 0.5% in February
United States inventories in the manufacturing and trade sectors climbed 0.5% month-on-month in February to reach $2,010.8 billion, the Census Bureau reported on Thursday. Compared to February 2020, the figure was 0.7% lower. The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences, was estimated at $1,549.6 billion. On a monthly basis, the statistic was 1.9%, while it grew 5.7% per annum. Seasonally adjusted business to sales ratio stood at 1.30 in February, down from last year’s ratio of 1.38.
US retail sales up by 9.8% in March
Advance estimates of retail and food services sales in the United States, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes, rose by 9.8% from the previous month to reach $619.1 billion, way above analysts’ expectations, the Census Bureau’s report revealed on Thursday. Total sales for the period starting with January throughout March went up by 14.3% in comparison to the same period the previous year. Retail trade sales increased by 9.4% on a monthly level and by a staggering 26.9% on an annual basis. Meanwhile, motor vehicle and parts dealers and food services and drinking places both saw a significant year-on-year growth of 71.1% and 36.0%, respectively.
Weekly Jobless Claims Fall More Than Expected, Showing Recovery Underway in US Job Market
Initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending April 10 decreased by 193,000 compared to the previous week’s revised figure to land at 576,000, the US Department of Labor reported on Thursday. The four-week moving average was 683,000, down by 47,250 compared to the prior week’s revised average. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate for the week ending April 3 was 2.7%, 0.1 percentage point up in comparison to unrevised numbers from the prior week. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the same week was 3,731,000, up by 4,000 from the previous week’s revised figure. The four-week moving average was the lowest since March 28, 2020, and stood at 3,763,000, falling by 98,000 compared to the previous week’s revised average of 3,861,000. Nick Note: forget the weasel words in these reports they are the best i have ever seen. And they lag in time one to two months……. This economy is a rocket ship