JPMorgan Chase & Co. said Wednesday that first-quarter profit nearly quintupled, after the bank released $5.2 billion it had set aside to cover soured loans. The bank posted a profit of $14.3 billion, or $4.50 per share, well above the $3.10 per share forecast by analysts polled by FactSet. A year earlier, JPMorgan reported a quarterly profit of $2.87 billion, or $0.78 a share. At that time, the coronavirus pandemic was just taking hold in the U.S., and JPMorgan and other big banks set aside billions of dollars to prepare for a potential flood of bad loans. In the first quarter, the reserve release gave earnings a meaningful boost. The bank released $2.9 billion in the fourth quarter. The nation’s largest bank also reported revenue of $32.27 billion, up 14% from a year earlier. Revenue beat the $30.5 billion predicted by analysts. The rainy-day funds ate into quarterly profits for much of 2020, when banks were concerned that struggling businesses and consumers would start to miss loan payments. But many of those losses never materialized, and now banks are poised to cash in on their diligence. The U.S. economy’s rebound has surpassed banks’ internal forecasts, convincing large financial institutions including JPMorgan to begin removing some of the safeguards erected during 2020 to prevent major losses. Banks believe the trillions of dollars in government stimulus coursing through the economy, coupled with accelerating vaccine distribution, have insulated consumers and businesses from the pandemic’s worst-case financial scenarios. JPMorgan Chief Executive James Dimon believes the economy is primed for a “Goldilocks moment” of fast growth and inflation and interest rates that move slowly upward, he said in his annual letter to shareholders last week. The bank’s stock price reflects that shift. Shares of JPMorgan have risen more than 21% since the beginning of the year. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index, which tracks shares of the largest lenders, is up close to 25% this year, compared with 10% for the S&P 500. Nick Note: Always remember the Fed is a creature of the mega banks. With the Fed Stepping on ZERO it means the yield curve is steepening and banks do the yield curve tango. Even a fucking idiot inbred silver spoon banker can make money in this… They borrow for near zero and lend out over 3%. In banking its the rule of three. 3% spread on you loans, Out of the office by 3PM, 3 lines of cocaine (supplied by the drug dealers they launder their money by the billion) several times a day and 3 whores (male and female) for the orgy…… SO this tells me with bank profits up 25% and the S&P500 up 10% this market still has room to run.
Basking in the Coinbase IPO glow, all-time highs litter the boards
It’s a sea of green today as the Good Ship Cryptocurrency sails on the crest of a wave of all-time highs. It’s Cheech and Chong time for the crypto markets. The fuse has been lit and we are at the show. Where will it go? Nobody knows. With Coinbase’s direct listing on Nasdaq kicking off today, almost every coin under the sun is bathing in the warm glow of the notorious ‘Coinbase effect’ – the price bump a coin experiences when it first gets added to the leading US exchange. Bitcoin is back in uncharted territory, soaring to almost $65,000 this morning. It’s now been trading hands at more than $60,000 for four days in a row and looks to be establishing that level as support. It’s up more than six per cent over the last 24 hours and 11 per cent in the last week. Is there still more to come from the leading cryptocurrency? There are gains across the board today, though. Bitcoin’s market dominance has actually slipped to 54% despite its recent rise as other coins also show strength, with the total cryptocurrency market capitalisation now sitting above $2.2 trillion. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum (ETH) has also set a new all-time high of almost $2,400. Can it hit $2,500 today, having only just established itself over the important psychological level of $2,000 at the weekend? It’s now the 36th largest asset in the world, outstripping the likes of Netflix and Adobe. It wasn’t even in the top 100 at the turn of the year. Perhaps an even bigger question for Ethereum at the moment though is whether it can hold that second spot. Binance’s BNB and XRP continue to see massive gains, rising to $600 and $2 respectively. Even Cardano (ADA) has come storming back into the mix after a quiet couple of months, up 20% over the last 24 hours and currently changing hands at an all-time high of $1.53. Are they now truly ready to give ETH a real run for its money? Nick Note: Its a rare trade for us where we buy into a rally. The reason is not everyone has bought in yet. When they do our intent is to sell them some. This is not a simple Getty up and go trade. I need to see plenty of cash on the sides lines and a LOT of skepticism which i do see. This coinbase IPO along with some screaming erasings for the banks tells me to let our bet ride…. for now!
Iran to begin 60% uranium enrichment
https://youtu.be/kOl5y14bvg8
DUBAI (Reuters) – Iran’s move to enrich uranium up to 60% purity is a response to the sabotage at its key nuclear facility, President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday, adding the Islamic Republic had no intention of building a nuclear weapon. After an explosion at its Natanz uranium enrichment site on Sunday blamed by Tehran on arch-foe Israel, Iran said it would begin enriching uranium at 60%, a move bringing the fissile material closer to levels suitable for a bomb. It also said it would activate 1,000 advanced centrifuge machines at the site. “Of course, the security and intelligence officials must give the final reports, but apparently it is the crime of the Zionists, and if the Zionists act against our nation, we will answer it,” Rouhani said in a televised cabinet meeting. “Our response to their malice is replacing the damaged centrifuges with more advanced ones and ramping up the enrichment to 60% at the Natanz facility.” Iranian authorities have described the incident as an act of “nuclear terrorism”. Israel, which the Islamic Republic does not recognise, has not formally commented on the matter. The International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, said on Tuesday it had been informed of Iran’s decision.
Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with six powers, which it has been breaching since the United States withdrew in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Tehran, caps the fissile purity to which Tehran can refine uranium at 3.67%.
That is well under the 20% achieved before the agreement and far below the 90% suitable for a nuclear weapon. In an apparent bid to heap pressure on U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration that is willing to revive the accord, Iran in recent months has raised enrichment to 20% purity, a level where uranium is considered to be highly enriched. Rouhani, echoing Iran’s stance for decades, said Tehran had no intention to obtain or develop nuclear weapons. France said on Tuesday it was coordinating a response with world powers, including the United States, after Iran said it would begin enriching uranium at 60%. Washington called Iran’s announcement “provocative” and said the U.S. administration was concerned, adding that it called into question Tehran’s seriousness on nuclear talks. Last week, Iran and the global powers held what they described as “constructive” talks to salvage the 2015 accord. The talks will resume on Thursday in Vienna to discuss the sanctions Washington might lift and the nuclear curbs Tehran might observe. “They (Israel) want our hands to be empty in the negotiations, but we will be in the negotiations with a stronger hand,” Rouhani said. Nick Note: Its all about your knowledge. So allow me to increase your knowledge. The really hard part is enriching Uranium to 20%. Once enriched to over 50% its a hop skip and jump to 100% enrichment for a nuke. And their is no use for uranium enriched over 20% except for a bomb. Iran is obviously moving towards nuclear weapons. Breakout to where they have enough material for 10 nukes is less then a year away…….
China’s trade surplus at $115.9B in Qt1 exports surge 38.7% YoY,
China’s trade surplus in the first quarter of 2021 came in at CNY759.29 billion (USD115.99 billion), the latest data from the Customs showed on Tuesday.
China Q1 yuan-denominated exports +38.7% YoY.
China Q1 yuan-denominated imports +19.3% YoY.
China Q1 total trade with the united states +61.3% in yuan term.
China’s foreign trade has been recovering and growing.
China’s exports rose sharply in March while imports growth surged to the highest in four years, in yet another boost to the nation’s economic recovery. It signalled improving global demand amid progress in worldwide COVID-19 vaccination. Ciara Lee reports
China’s exports rose sharply in March while import growth surged to the highest in four years. It’s another boost to the nation’s economic recovery.
And signals improving global demand as worldwide vaccinations pick up speed.
The data suggests the world’s second largest economy will continue to gather momentum. Nick Note: Lets be clear here. The factory of the world is opening up. Shipping the shit out of goods and Exports are soaring. What does that tell you? Why it means business is gearing up for a massive recovery. Please note these are not year over year comparisons. but 4 years highs……… The profits will soon be flowing to the bottom line. As a foot note it caught business ha ha ha economists and algo assholes flat footed.. They never saw this coming and that is why they are having to rush to catch up on the inventories they let run down. The $1.00 chip shortage is just a small example of how bad they fucked up……… Party On!
Iran blames Israel for Natanz nuclear plant outage, vows revenge
Powell: Economy likely to grow much more quickly
The U.S. economy is ready to take off, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Sunday. In an interview with CBS News’ “60 Minutes,” which released a snippet Sunday morning, Powell said increased growth should create more jobs. The full interview will air Sunday night at 7 p.m. Eastern on CBS. “What we’re seeing now is really an economy that seems to be at an inflection point,” Powell said in the interview. “We feel like we’re at a place where the economy’s about to start growing much more quickly and job creation coming in much more quickly.” Powell credited widespread vaccinations and strong fiscal-policy support through the pandemic, but warned that the economy could suffer a setback if there’s another wave of COVID-19 infections. “It’s going to be smart if people can continue to socially distance and wear masks,” he said.
It’s NOT the National Debt….. Stupid!
(Bloomberg) — Economics used to offer lots of metrics that claimed to show when growing economies were approaching some kind of speed limit. But increasingly, inflation is the only one that’s taken seriously.A lasting surge in prices would likely convince policy makers that it’s time to tap the brakes on expansionary measures adopted in the pandemic, like high public spending or low borrowing costs. That’s why Tuesday’s consumer-price data in the U.S. will be so closely watched — though it’ll take more than a single month’s numbers to change minds.
Meanwhile — as part of a profound shift in economic thinking that’s gathered pace in the past year — a whole range of other indicators once relied on to flag trouble ahead are falling out of favor.
Budget deficits and public debt were thought to flash a warning sign at certain levels — until plenty of countries exceeded those limits, especially in the last year, without crashing. Estimates for full employment, or the most jobs an economy could create without overheating, turned out to be wrong. Measures of the so-called “output gap” are supposed to capture how close an economy has gotten to its maximum capacity — but many analysts have concluded that they rely too much on the recent past to be a useful guide. Abandoning or downplaying all of these yardsticks means officials are less likely to take the kind of pre-emptive action that’s choked off expansions in the past.The shift also amounts to a pivot toward humility, in a profession not famous for it. Economists used to be comfortable with offering their predictions as a basis for policy. They’re having to acknowledge that the future is full of things they simply do not know.“The influence of long-term projections has evaporated, and that’s a very good thing,” says James Galbraith, a professor of economics at the University of Texas. “You design policies to deal with the problems you have. If they have consequences later, you address them later.” That philosophy underpins the Federal Reserve’s new interest-rate framework. Last decade, the central bank began raising borrowing costs even though inflation was subdued and unemployment was still around 5% post-financial crisis. Now, Fed officials effectively concede that was a mistake, because lower unemployment didn’t trigger a spike in prices. And now they say they’ll base policy on what’s actually happened in the economy, rather than what’s expected to come next. Three times in a speech last month, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard contrasted “outcomes” with the “outlook” -– and said Fed policy will be based on the former, not the latter. In fiscal policy too, there’s been a rethink of speed limits.Budget deficits and national debt as a share of the economy used to be the go-to metrics. The European Union imposed 3% deficit caps. Economists Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff, in an influential study a decade ago, argued that debt at 90% of GDP was a dangerous tipping point. This kind of thinking led to austerity policies after the initial shock of the 2008 financial crisis — and the result was a weak recovery. But budget forecasts tended to be too pessimistic because they didn’t anticipate that interest rates would remain low. In the pandemic, governments have been more willing to spend, especially in the U.S. President Joe Biden is pushing measures worth more than $5 trillion during his first year –- fuel for what already looks set to be a faster rebound in the economy. In some ways, the new approach aligns with the school of thought called Modern Monetary Theory. MMT says governments have room to rev up their economies with fiscal spending, and argues that inflation — rather than deficit or debt levels — is the metric that budget authorities need to keep their eye on.“One thing the mainstream has caught on to is allowing the economy to run a bit hotter,” says Scott Fullwiler, an MMT economist and associate professor at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. “That’s the thing we’ve been hitting on for decades.”Unfortunately, says Fullwiler, economists haven’t devoted enough attention to the question of what a safe maximum speed would be — and have focused too much on central banks, even though it’s now fiscal policy that is driving recoveries.“The economics profession in general has far and away enough capacity to figure out how hot the economy can run,” he says. It would have better answers right now “if economists had been working on fiscal-policy frameworks for stabilizing the economy and keeping inflation low, instead of optimal monetary policy, which is basically irrelevant.” In the U.S., opponents of Biden’s spending have invoked the “output gap” — the difference between the goods and services an economy is actually producing, and the maximum it could sustainably manage. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, for example, both argued that last month’s stimulus bill was much bigger than what was needed to close that shortfall — and risked triggering inflation as a result.But many analysts are skeptical about the measure. Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, has been leading a campaign against “nonsense output gaps” for years.The output gap is “a massively important concept” that underlies all the big policy calls, he says. “Nobody has any clue about how to measure it.” Output gaps rely on estimates of an economy’s potential. A small shortfall means production is reckoned to be getting close to its speed limits, and trying to make it go faster could set off inflation. But Brooks says that potential is often calculated simply by looking at what happened in the recent past. He says that when a country has been under-performing for an extended period, like Italy in recent decades, the result is that its potential gets downgraded too — effectively putting a cap on how good things should be allowed to get. In a February report, Goldman Sachs economists tried an alternative way of measuring, and concluded that output gaps in major economies from Italy to the U.S. were likely bigger at the end of last year than official estimates suggested — meaning that there was “more slack,” less risk of inflation and a stronger case for expansionary policy. Since then, the U.S. recovery has gained pace, surprising many analysts. Galbraith, who was director of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress during the recession of the early 1980s, says emergencies aren’t the right time for policy makers to attempt any kind of precision forecasts.“You don’t try to calculate these things,” he says. “You throw at it as much as you need, and more. And then, if it turns out that you’re doing too much — which is improbable — you scale it back.” Nick Note:Its all about the biggest, fastest, greatest recovery ever. And it is sill NOT priced into the stock market
Investors keep faith in U.S. value stocks as tech roars back
NEW YORK (Reuters) – A rebound in growth and technology stocks has investors gauging whether a months-long rally in the shares of banks, energy companies and other economically sensitive names is running on empty or simply refueling. The Russell 1000 value index started 2021 with its biggest quarterly outperformance relative to its growth counterpart in 20 years, as investors poured money into the shares of battered companies they thought would benefit most from a vaccine-generated reopening of the U.S. economy. The script has flipped since mid-March, with the Russell growth index gaining over 6% compared to a rise of just over 2% for value. Some investors wonder whether the market has already priced in expectations of a powerful economic rebound on the stimulus, infrastructure spending and vaccine rollouts. “We have already had a tremendous move” in value stocks, said Mona Mahajan, senior U.S. investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors. “We are probably at the stage where we just want to be a little bit more cautious, a little bit more selective.” Value stocks generally trade at low price-to-book or other valuation measures. Investors still see a lot of upside in the group, where names remain cheap after a decade of being trounced by high-flyers such as Amazon, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet. Despite their recent rally, value stocks remain about 11% below their historic average discount to the market using a composite of price-to-book and other measures, according to Solomon Tadesse, head of North American quant equity research at Societe Generale. The discount is roughly comparable to where value stood in November 2008, with the financial crisis in full swing. Based on price-to-book measures, value stocks are also trading some 74% cheaper than growth peers, according to Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research. Such a discount was last seen during the tech boom over 20 years ago, Berezin said. Investors betting on the reflation trade say that discount gives value stocks plenty of room to run, noting the Federal Reserve expects the U.S. economy in 2021 to grow by 6.5%, its strongest expansion in nearly 40 years. “We have had some false starts, but I do think that this time it’s real in terms of the value trade,” said King Lip, chief strategist at Baker Avenue Asset Management, which has tilted toward value in its portfolios by over-weighting financials, industrials, and materials shares. Strong earnings results by banks and other value stalwarts could trigger more gains in the category. Reports from JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup are set to kick off earnings season next week. Overall, 2021 earnings for Russell 1000 value companies are expected to rise 26.4%, beating a forecast 17.7% rise for companies in the growth index, according to Credit Suisse data as of the end of March. Still, some investors expect growth stocks will continue to outperform as they have most of the time since the financial crisis. The Russell growth index has climbed over 700% since early 2009, more than doubling value’s gains. “I think the easy money in value stocks is over,” said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments. Value has “closed the gap enough that if the market has more room to run up, it is probably going to come back to the names that investors love, the growth names.” Some investors say any sign of a coronavirus resurgence could spur a return to the stay-at-home trade that powered tech stocks last year. Investors are also watching the U.S. Treasury market where a selloff slowed in recent weeks after pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up by over 80 basis points in the first quarter. Rising yields could hurt technology and growth stocks, whose cash flows tend to be longer term and are discounted more in standard stock valuation models when bond yields climb. With plenty of stimulus in the markets and investors focused on inflation, “I don’t see a strong argument against the 10-year (yield) continuing its rise and further juicing the rotation (into value),” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird. Nick Note: Sometimes the simple answer is the right answer. Simply the US and Global economy was/is in a pandemic induced depression. Close enough is good enough. And the mRNA vaccines are close enough and they will get closer all the time as the variants are kept under control with booster shots. So we are in the greatest economic recovery EVER!. And as usual the corporate pompous pricks waited to long to shut down and have waited to long to open back up. Chips shortages (they created) are one example of their stupidness. Reality is they et-all are underestimating the explosive growth that has already started…..
Real-world Israeli study shows SA variant can break through Pfizer vaccine
Researchers say highlights need to properly monitor for mutations entering Israel through the airport
The Pfizer coronavirus vaccine is somewhat less effective against the South African mutation; a new study has shown, raising a red flag among health professionals of the need to continue monitoring Israel’s airports to keep out what could be dangerous mutations. The study, conducted by Clalit Health Services and Tel Aviv University, was the first of its kind based on real-world data. It has been published on the MedRxiv online site and therefore has not yet been peer-reviewed. “The results indicate the need for genetic sequencing and constant monitoring for new variants, as well as continued implementation of non-pharmaceutical measures,” said Clalit’s Dr. Doron Netzer, head of Community Medicine at Clalit, who helped lead the study. Lab studies have previously suggested that the South African variant could break through the protection provided by the Pfizer vaccine, but lab studies do not always hold up in real life.
The study counters a report released by Pfizer earlier this month that claimed the vaccine was 100% effective in preventing coronavirus among participants trialed in South Africa, where the mutation is prevalent.
In this case, what was shown in the lab turned out to also occur in real life, Prof. Adi Stern, of the Shmunis School of Biomedicine and Cancer Research at Tel Aviv University’s Faculty of Life Sciences, told The Jerusalem Post. The study seems to counter a report released by Pfizer earlier this month that claimed the vaccine was 100% effective in preventing coronavirus among participants from a trial in South Africa, where the mutation is prevalent. The report was released on Saturday night. This week, the Health Ministry plans to discuss allowing Israelis to go mask-free in open areas immediately after the Independence Day holiday that takes place on Thursday. Last week, the government voted to change airport regulations and allow non-Israelis to visit their first-degree relatives in the country. Since March 20, all Israeli citizens have been able to enter from abroad. Specifically, the researchers examined around 400 members of Clalit Health who tested positive for the virus 14 days or more after receiving the first dose of the vaccine in comparison to 400 unvaccinated people who caught corona, too. The cohorts were matched according to age, sector, gender and more.
The study showed that the South African variant is more likely to break through the vaccine’s protective effect, even after two doses have been administered and more than a week has passed.
All positive samples underwent genetic sequencing to determine with which variant each person was infected. Only 1% of the infected people had the South African variant. However, among individuals who had been infected after receiving two doses of the vaccine, the prevalence rate of those who had the South African variant was eight times higher than the rate in the unvaccinated matched individuals. This means that the Pfizer vaccine does not provide the same level of protection against the South African variant. However, because so few Israelis have been infected with it, the researchers said they were unable to assess the exact reduction in effectiveness. Stern suggested that the South African has less transmissibility than the original strain and certainly less than the British mutation – that has been shown to be as much as 70% more contagious than the original strain – and therefore has not managed to spread. “It can break through the vaccine, but it cannot spread efficiently, so that is the good news,” Stern said, noting that one possible explanation is that the extensive spread of the British variant blocked the spread of the South African variant.
The results of the study drive home the message that Israel “has to be super careful about airports,” Stern cautioned. “We are in a unique position in Israel now. The vaccines are working, and amazingly, we are the only country in the world where life is going back to normal. The main threat now is what will happen through airport importations.”
Stern said that anyone who enters Israel should be tested and, if they are sick, the country should sequence their results to find out what variant they bear. They should also be effectively isolated. “We don’t want to import masses of the South African variant and we don’t want to test how limited the transmissibility [of the variant] is in Israel,” Stern cautioned. The study also examined the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the British variant and, once again, showed that the vaccine works. However, in 250 partially vaccinated individuals – meaning they had only had one dose of the vaccine or less than a week had passed since the second dose – the rate of the British variant was disproportionately higher compared to unvaccinated persons. This means, Stern explained, that although some studies have shown a strong efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine even after the first dose, it takes two doses to combat the British variant most effectively. She said that this may explain why in December and January when so many Israelis started vaccinating it took longer than expected to bring down the country’s rate of infection.
“The findings signal that we cannot yet regard the pandemic as a thing of the past,” said Prof. Shay Ben-Shachar, head of Precision Medicine for Clalit Innovation. “It still remains important to continue social distancing and using masks.” Nick Note: This story ruined my Sunday morning Cappuccino…. I hate being right. This proves two things that caused me to spill my coffee. Another gift out of Africa. Specifically that hell hole of disease, starvation, misery and oppression South Africa has become under the most brutal, corrupt rulers (barbarians and savages) in the world. You might notice its not PC correct to report the shit house mess going on in S.Africa. The coronavirus is running wild in S.Africa. with virtually no vaccines and in fact NO isolation and No treatment for the infected hordes. So in this environment of the virus gone wild we get new mutations. And the deadliest variant now attacking the world is another gift out of S.Africa (Aids ran wild their a decade ago) is this new corona strand. So my Great Fear Number1 is a variant that makes our vaccines less effective. Its here but the good news is we will have a booster shot in 6 months. Inside information i have is Pfizer is sequencing and designing a new mRNA booster shot as we speak. Now on to my Great Fear Number 2. The skyways that are dieways. Again a matter of political intrigue and influence peddling. No one will state the obvious. Jetliners are how this plague has spread the world over. You can test 24 hours before flying and all that tells you the person was not infected two weeks ago. AND AND AND most tests especially the fast ones will not register the gift from Africa. It takes PCR sequencing to identify Africa’s latest gift besides rap music and Aides to mankind. So do not let your guard down. Flying and crowd FUCK fests are out of the question….
Melt up! More money poured into stocks in past 5 months than last 12 years
https://youtu.be/nwIncdsiACw
LONDON (Reuters) – Equity funds have attracted more than half a trillion dollars in the past five months, exceeding inflows recorded over the previous 12 years, according to data from BofA, which has likened the stampede to a “melt-up” in markets.
The flows are also raising fears of a pullback from record highs, given valuations are at the highest since the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s, with the S&P 500 trading at nearly 22 times forward earnings.
“Goldilocks and melt-up are popular terms this week and we think that can be seen through market valuation,” said Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays. “We remain optimistic but there’s less upside left in our view.” Deutsche Bank said this week it expects a 6% to 10% pullback over the next three months as economic growth peaks. It was followed by a massive $40 million bet in the U.S. options market on Thursday that the Cboe Volatility Index – often called Wall Street’s fear gauge – will break above the 25 level and rise towards 40 by mid-July. The VIX is currently trading around 17 points, the lowest level since early 2020. “You should definitely be worried about valuations and all the more so when people start justifying extremely high valuations,” said Fahad Kamal, chief investment officer at Kleinwort Hambros. “We are risk-on, but we haven’t put our foot down on the accelerator because of valuations in some parts of the market.”
A record $576 billion has flown into equity funds since November — more than the $452 billion seen in the last 12 years combined, all thanks to ultra-easy monetary policies and unprecedented stimulus.
Kicking off the second-quarter with the second highest earnings multiples in more than a 100 years, many traditional market-top signals, ranging from retail investor surveys to valuations, are flashing amber. Some of those worries have seeped in, with investors loading $120 billion-plus into cash funds in the last three weeks. But equity asset allocations are still at a record 63.6%, according to BofA. Kamal, however, said with hopes fading on bonds offering a real return, there is no alternative to stocks. Still, many signals imply that some of the world’s biggest stock markets are ripe for a pullback. On a technical basis, the benchmark S&P 500 and STOXX 600 are in overbought territories. Relative strength indexes (RSI) — a 0-100 gauge of bullish and bearish momentum — are at 70, a level that leaves them vulnerable to profit-taking. “We see reasons to expect periodic bouts of higher volatility in the near term,” analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management said in a report published Friday. Possible catalysts for market gyrations include worries over a potential jump in inflation and the proliferation of new variants of the coronavirus, the analysts wrote. U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in March, resulting in the largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years, a Labor Department report showed Friday. Sentiment is also bullish. The latest sentiment survey by American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed retail investors are their most bullish in the past three years. “Sentiment is in very worrisome territory as is valuation, yet money flows continue to push indices higher,” said Tobias Levkovich, Citi’s chief U.S. equity strategist. Nick Note: Just how we like it… A record breaking rally with record breaking cash flowing like a river into a market climbing a wall of worry. And important point here.. As fundamental investors you would we should be worried about a forward looking P/E ration of 22 which is traditional high. Reality is this popular “forward looking” (ha ha ha ha)_ indices are understating the COMING biggest corporate profit boom ever…….. Remember algoes predict the predictable based on history. They fuck up and often do because they cannot predict something never seen before. What i call the unpredictable…. But you must understand Price is reported first by the second and earnings are reported quartely. Earnings is the second part d of the ratio. And price rises faster then earnings in a bull market. The reason i am so bullish is (I shit myself and believe i can guess the future) I see a future corporate earnings boom like never seen before… Sorry algo guys buy you will miss this one…… … I am not a history professor. GOD forbid… i am not a mathematician. I do not report the here and NOW. I get paid to look over the horizon and tell you what is coming. And i see huge humongous surge in the E as in earnings that will not only make stock valuations cheap visa-vie the P/E but also drive future valuations and the P part of the equations as in price to the moon. Remember one of the key driver for over the rainbow profits is the spreading heard immunity as the vaccines spread far and wide and working. One more comment.. I understand that the Ghetto people are refusing the vaccines as are the Trailer Park (i love a Mobil home park) Trash. And i am sorry about that. But the last time l looked crack heads and hillbilly crank addicts do not invest in the stock market anyway.