Author: BlackMask Financial

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Study reveals possible SARS-CoV-2 escape mutant that may re-infect immune individuals

A recent study by US researchers shows how the 501Y.V2 variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), characterized by several mutations, is able to escape neutralization by present first-wave anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and potentially re-infect COVID-19 convalescent individuals. The paper is currently available on the bioRxiv* preprint server.

Study: Molecular dynamic simulation reveals E484K mutation enhances spike RBD-ACE2 affinity and the combination of E484K, K417N and N501Y mutations (501Y.V2 variant) induces conformational change greater than N501Y mutant alone, potentially resulting in an escape mutant. Image Credit: NIAID

Study: Molecular dynamic simulation reveals E484K mutation enhances spike RBD-ACE2 affinity and the combination of E484K, K417N and N501Y mutations (501Y.V2 variant) induces conformational change greater than N501Y mutant alone, potentially resulting in an escape mutant. Image Credit: NIAID

 

As many variants of SARS-CoV-2 emerge and subsequently displace first-wave viruses, it is pivotal not only to appraise their relative transmissibility and virulence in causing coronavirus disease (COVID-19), but also their propensity to escape antibody neutralization. Of utmost interest are variants harboring mutations that can affect the interaction of the viral spike receptor-binding domain (S RBD) with the viral receptor on host cells, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), which provides an entry point for the coronavirus. Variants with a greater binding affinity for ACE2 are likely to spread more. Furthermore, transmissibility is linked to mortality, as an inevitable increase in infection rates caused by the novel variants will result in higher disease and death toll.

However, these dire repercussions of more rapid and widespread infections can also be compounded by a loss of efficacy of currently available antibody-based treatments and vaccines and a decrease of protective immunity in individuals previously infected with a ‘first wave’ virus.

In order to improve our understanding of the risks posed by an individual or combined mutations in these ‘second wave’ variants, a research group from ImmunityBio company in California conducted a computational analysis of interactions of the S RBD with human ACE2.

The K484 substitution in the novel South African variant increases affinity of the spike receptor binding domain (S RBD) for ACE2. (a, b) The positions of the E484K (red), K417N (cyan), and N501K (purple) substitutions at the interface of the 501Y.V2 variant S RBD - hACE2 interface are shown. hACE2 residues nearest to the mutated RBD residues are rendered as thin sticks. The E484K mutation is located in a highly flexible loop region of the interface, K417N in a region with lower probability of contact, and N501K at a second point of high-affinity contact. (c) The range of movement available to the loop containing residue 484 is shown by PCA of MD simulation of a first-wave sequence11,13. (d) MD simulation performed in the presence of all 3 substitutions reveals the loop region is tightly associated (black arrow) with hACE2. A key contact ion pair is circled. (e) In comparison to K484, when E484 (‘wildtype’) is present with only the Y501 variant, the loop is not as tightly associated (arrow).

The K484 substitution in the novel South African variant increases affinity of the spike receptor-binding domain (S RBD) for ACE2. (a, b) The positions of the E484K (red), K417N (cyan), and N501K (purple) substitutions at the interface of the 501Y.V2 variant S RBD – hACE2 interface are shown. hACE2 residues nearest to the mutated RBD residues are rendered as thin sticks. The E484K mutation is located in a highly flexible loop region of the interface, K417N in a region with lower probability of contact, and N501K at a second point of high-affinity contact. (c) The range of movement available to the loop containing residue 484 is shown by PCA of MD simulation of a first-wave sequence11,13. (d) MD simulation performed in the presence of all 3 substitutions reveals the loop region is tightly associated (black arrow) with hACE2. A key contact ion pair is circled. (e) In comparison to K484, when E484 (‘wildtype’) is present with only the Y501 variant, the loop is not as tightly associated (arrow).

In this study, the researchers have utilized millisecond-scale MD simulation methods to investigate mutations (E484K, K417N, and N501Y) at the S RBD-ACE2 interface in the rapidly spreading South African variant 501Y.V2 – and their effects on RBD binding affinity and spike glycoprotein conformation. The wild-type ACE2/RBD complex was built from the cryo-electron microscopy structure. Moreover, ten copies of each RBD mutant were minimized, equilibrated and simulated, and the minimization processed occurred in two phases.

Finally, principal component analysis (PCA) was pursued by using the full set of simulations of the triple mutant, E484K and N501Y systems. Simulation structures were extrapolated onto the eigenvectors for every mutation system.

The great escape from neutralization

The study revealed greater affinity of K484 S RBD for ACE2 in comparison to E484, as well as the greater probability of modified conformation when compared to the original structure. This may actually represent mechanisms by which the new 501Y.V2 viral variant was able to replace original SARS-CoV-2 strains.

More specifically, both E484K and N501Y mutations were shown an increase affinity of S RBD for human ACE2 receptor, while E484K was able to switch the charge on the flexible loop region of RBD, resulting in the formation of novel favorable contacts. The aforementioned improved affinity is a likely culprit for more rapid spread of this variant due to greater transmissibility, which is a prime reason why it is important to track these mutations and act in a timely manner. Furthermore, the induction of conformational changes is responsible for the escape of the 501Y.V2 variant (distinguished from the B.1.1.7 UK variant by the presence of E484K mutation) from neutralization by existing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and re-infect COVID-19 convalescent individuals.

Implications for further vaccine design

“We believe the MD simulation approach used here similarly represents a tool to be used in the arsenal against the continuing pandemic, as it provides insight into the likelihood mutations alone or in combination may have effects that lessen the efficacy of existing therapies or vaccines”, say the authors of this study.

“We suggest vaccines whose efficacies are largely dependent upon humoral responses to the S antigen only are inherently limited by the emergence of novel strains and dependent upon frequent re-design,” they add.

On the other hand, a vaccine that evokes a vigorous T-cell response is much less subject to changes due to accruing mutations and, thus, provides a better and more efficient approach to protection against this disease.

Finally, the ideal vaccine would also incorporate a second, conserved antigen (such as the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein), which would likely elicit an effective humoral and cell-mediated immune response – even when confronted with a rapidly changing virus.

*Important Notice

bioRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or treated as established information.  Nick Note: After extensive research as your librarian my unscientific joke conclusion is that previous infected individuals are highly likely to have no or little immunity to the South African mutation known as the 501Y.V2 variant. If you listen to the above video near the end the experts admit that the vaccine companies have not been forthcoming about the precise RNA that their vaccines target and even tough their has been enough time they claim that the immunity against the 501Y.V2 variant  is inconclusive. Having been at this a long time i have learned no news is bad news. And after they deliver the ordered doses of the present configured vaccine… They will “discover” that a booster shot will be required to give “full immunity” to the mutated variants. And this multi multi billion dollar dance will be a yearly event. Much like the flue vaccine ritual.

 

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expert reaction to the South African variant

Please observe the UGLY MASK. See this scientist in a top secret biolab wants to live. Wear the fucking ugly mask and nano-filter I designed for you

Several journalists have asked us about the South African variant of SARS-CoV-2, so here are some comments from scientists.

Dr Julian W Tang, Honorary Associate Professor/Clinical Virologist at the University of Leicester, said:

“The South African variant (B.1.351 or 501Y.V2) differs significantly from the UK B.1.1.7(variant) in several ways that may impact on vaccine effectiveness. “Both variants share the N501Y mutation in the viral S gene which lies in the receptor binding domain (RBD) – where the virus binds to the host cell – and where vaccine-induced antibodies bind to the virus.  But the South African variant has two more mutations – E484K and K417N – in this RBD region that are absent in the UK variant.

These two additional mutations may interfere more with vaccine effectiveness in the South African variant than in the UK variant.

“This does not mean that the existing COVID-19 vaccines will not work at all, just that the antibodies induced by the current vaccines may not bind and neutralise the South African variant as well as it would the other circulating viruses – including the UK variant.

“Even if the South African variant becomes more widespread and dominant, the mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna) and adenovirus-vectored (Oxford-Astrazeneca and Russian Sputnik V) vaccines can be modified to be more close-fitting and effective against this variant in a few months.

“Meanwhile, most of us believe that the existing vaccines are likely to work to some extent to reduce infection/ transmission rates and severe disease against both the UK and South African variants – as the various mutations have not altered the S protein shape that the current vaccine induced antibodies will not bind at all.”

Prof Francois Balloux, Professor of Computational Systems Biology and Director, UCL Genetics Institute, University College London, said:

“The ‘South African variant’ carries a mutation in the spike protein called E484K, which is not present in the ‘UK strain’. The E484K mutation has been shown to reduce antibody recognition. As such, it helps the virus SARS-CoV-2 to bypass immune protection provided by prior infection or vaccination. It is not anticipated that this mutation is sufficient for the ‘South African’ variant to bypass the protection provided by current vaccines. It’s possible that new variants will affect the efficacy of the covid vaccines, but we shouldn’t make that assumption yet about the South African one.”

Prof Lawrence S. Young, Virologist and Professor of Molecular Oncology, Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, said:

“The South African virus variant was recently reported in a preprint ahead of formal publication.  The variant has multiple spike mutations and emerged in a major metropolitan area in South Africa following the first wave of the epidemic and then spread to multiple locations within two other neighbouring provinces.  It has rapidly spread become the dominant virus variant in the Eastern and Western Cape provinces.

“The South African variant has 3 mutations at key sites in the receptor binding domain (K417N, E484K and N501Y) of the spike gene.  Two of these (E484K and N501Y) are within the receptor-binding motif (RBM), the main functional motif that forms the interface with the human ACE2 receptor.  The N501Y mutation is the same as that found in the UK virus variant. 

These changes are consistent with both these variants being more infectious (transmissible) but we don’t know whether they will affect the disease severity. While changes in the UK variant are unlikely to impact the effectiveness of current vaccines, the accumulation of more spike mutations in the South African variant are more of a concern and could lead to some escape from immune protection. “Variants of SARS-CoV-2 have been around since the beginning of the pandemic and are a product of the natural process by which viruses develop and adapt to their hosts as they replicate.  Most of these mutations have no effect on the behaviour of the virus but very occasionally they can improve the ability of the virus to infect and/or become more resistant to the body’s immune response.  Many thousands of these mutations have already been identified in isolates of the virus with around 4000 spike mutations being found in different viruses from around the world.  The UK and South African virus variants have changes in the spike gene consistent with the possibility that they are more infectious.

“But the standard measures to restrict transmission (hands, face, space) will prevent infection with this variant.  Along with improved surveillance (testing, tracing and isolating) and expediating the roll out of the vaccine, these measures will prevent transmission of this variant and any others that will arise.  “The move to harsher levels of restriction across the country is inevitable.  It is essential that we do everything possible to prevent the South African variant from spreading to the UK population.  Quarantine measures and restricting travel from and to South Africa are imperative.”

Dr Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology at the University of Reading, said:

“The variant found in South Africa which is now also seen in the UK, is another mutated version of the coronavirus which is causing significant problems.

“The South African variant has a number additional mutations including changes to some of the virus’ spike protein which are concerning. They cause more extensive alteration of the spike protein than the changes in the Kent variant and may make the virus less susceptible to the immune response triggered by the vaccines.  “While it is more infectious, it currently remains unclear whether it causes a more severe form of the disease.  Moreover, the South African variant is a more difficult virus to track as it lacks some mutations in the spike found in the Kent virus which make it easily detectable by the PCR test used by the NHS.”

Prof James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, and University of Oxford, said:

“Viruses mutate and new strains will emerge. The so-called South African strain has a number of changes, and scientists are working flat out to understand their significance. Some of the changes are quite significant and thus scientists are paying a lot of attention. We do not yet know enough to say more than this.  “For the general public, I would say think about our human nature. Many of us like a good scare and horror stories are part and parcel of human culture, which means such things get a lot of coverage.  However a drumbeat of nightmare scenarios about this new variant does nothing but create anxiety because too little is known and there is nothing we can do about it at the moment.  Prolonged anxiety is far from enjoyable and leads to mental illness.  I would say there are many much more positive things we can do. “We can support scientists to work on the new variants and keep other research efforts to treat the disease going (don’t stop funding covid19 science just yet).  We can all help if we redouble our efforts to wash our hands, wear a mask and socially distance.  The faster and further the vaccine is rolled out, the quicker the end to this nightmare.  We can all help each other through kindness and understanding, many are grieving, others are financially very stretched and other are very lonely.  We can help by not amplifying or spreading doomsday scenarios or spreading magical thinking or nonsense information. “And we need to have a proper informed debate: further social restrictions are required if we wish to avoid overloading the NHS before the vaccines stop spread.  Those who advocate reducing social restrictions really should make clear the costs in lives of their policy.  In our democracy we elect politicians, not scientists, to take decisions. We expect politicians to make decisions based on facts, not fantasy.”

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

 

 

 

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New virus strains could lead to nightmare – S. Korean expert

Medical professionals: This is new information, no? My layman’s understanding was that, until now, scientists believed that the virus’s different strains weren’t meaningfully different from each other, which is why they were optimistic that a vaccine would have long-lasting effect. We could vaccinate against the baseline virus and be confident that it would confer immunity against COVID’s many distinct mutations.

Now here comes a Chinese study challenging the conventional wisdom. If you use basic techniques to distinguish one strain from another then yes, they all look more or less alike. But if you use “ultra-deep” genome sequencing, you begin to see subtle differences with potentially momentous consequences.

We’ve spent weeks spitballing theories for why New York has been hit so much harder than the rest of the country. It’s the density! Or it’s the subway. Or maybe it’s something genetic among the ethnic populations that have suffered most. But what if it’s as simple as New York having been hit by a strain of the disease that’s deadlier than the strain(s) circulating throughout the rest of America?

Li took an unusual approach to investigate the virus mutation. She analysed the viral strains isolated from 11 randomly chosen Covid-19 patients from Hangzhou in the eastern province of Zhejiang, and then tested how efficiently they could infect and kill cells.

The deadliest mutations in the Zhejiang patients had also been found in most patients across Europe, while the milder strains were the predominant varieties found in parts of the United States, such as Washington state, according to their paper…

They found some of these mutations could lead to functional changes in the virus’ spike protein, a unique structure over the viral envelope enabling the coronavirus to bind with human cells. Computer simulation predicted that these mutations would increase its infectivity.

To verify the theory, Li and colleagues infected cells with strains carrying different mutations. The most aggressive strains could generate 270 times as much viral load as the weakest type. These strains also killed the cells the fastest.

Where did the most common strain in New York arrive from? Right, Europe. The region with the most deadly outbreaks in the world, at least if you believe China’s numbers. But that’s one implication of this finding. Even if we believe that China’s cooking the books, it’s conceivable that the early strain that spread in Wuhan was less deadly than later mutations in other countries. Which would be ominous, as it would leave us to wonder how much more deadly the virus might get as it continues to mutate. Knowing that some regional strains are deadlier than others would also create some knotty questions in the U.S. about interstate travel. If all four corners of America are dealing with the same basic disease then limiting travel matters less. We don’t want people from hot spots visiting less affected regions and seeding outbreaks, of course, but hot spots like New York are already cooling off and will hopefully see cases shrink to a minimum in a month or two. However, if the New York strain is considerably more dangerous than other regional strains then maybe we don’t New Yorkers traveling anywhere. Even if they’re no more contagious than people in other regions, they may be carrying something with outsized effects on mortality.

Another implication: Does the Chinese study help explain why tests are so inaccurate?

Is it possible that some strains of the virus have diverged from each other so much that a diagnostic test targeting one would fail to detect another?

Another ominous possibility:

If you’re infected by one strain of the virus, are the antibodies left in your system effective against other strains? That’s really a variation of the vaccine question posed up top. There may be a major silver lining to the theory that different strains have wildly different effects, though:

Find a strain of the virus that produces few symptoms but triggers enough antibodies to fend off more deadly strains of the disease and you have an effective partial vaccine. As strange as the thought of “pox parties” are for COVID, they’d be worth it if you knew that the version of the disease you were infected with had far more upside than downside risk. Seems like the first step in figuring out if the Chinese study is correct would be to sequence different strains around the country in a basic way and see which ones have higher concentrations of the New York/Europe strain and which don’t. Is the strain more common in areas where deaths and hospitalizations are higher? If so, what do we do about isolating those regions — and controlling travel from Europe, since we won’t want anyone importing that strain once we’ve contained it here? It’s conceivable that we’d have more to fear from travel from NATO countries than we do from China. One thing that doesn’t seem likely, though, is that different strains account for why some people are asymptomatic and others aren’t. You’d expect an insular population in which lots of people are infected would be spreading the same strain among themselves, not a variety of different ones, leaving the reason for why some get sick and some don’t unclear. Plus, even if it turns out to be true that some strains are more or less likely to produce asymptomatic cases, it may not be the case that deadlier European strains are in the “less likely” category. Remember that the study I highlighted last night of a town in Italy, one of the hottest hot spots on Earth, found 43 percent of people who tested positive were asymptomatic. The question of why so many people don’t have symptoms even in areas where the disease is notably deadly remains a mystery.

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McConnell privately says he wants Trump gone as Republicans quietly lobby him to convict

“Mitch said to me he wants Trump gone,” one Republican member of Congress told CNN. “It is in his political interest to have him gone. It is in the GOP interest to have him gone. The question is, do we get there?” McConnell had proposed delaying the trial until February, but with the articles coming to the Senate on Monday, the process will likely be set in motion sooner. It would take 17 Republicans to join all 50 Democrats in order to convict. While the bar is high, some GOP sources think there is more of an appetite to punish the former President than is publicly apparent. “There were 10 House Republicans who voted for impeachment. There were probably over 150 who supported it,” said Charlie Dent, a former Republican congressman and CNN contributor. The ongoing Republican whisper campaign, according to more than a dozen sources who spoke to CNN, is based on a shared belief that a successful conviction is critical for the future of the Republican party. Multiple sources describe this moment as a reckoning for the party. “Trump created a cult of personality that is hard to dismantle,” said a former senior Republican official. “Conviction could do that.” The lobbying effort has included behind-the-scenes pressure by Republican donors, calls from former top Trump White House officials, and a set of talking points circulating among Republicans arguing for Trump’s impeachment. The 9-point memo charges that “it is difficult to find a more anti-conservative outburst by a U.S. president than Donald Trump the last two months.” Other points include that Trump “urged supporters from across the nation to come to Washington, DC, to disrupt” Congress on January 6 and egged on the crowd, which was “widely understood to include people who were planning to fight physically, and who were prepared to die in response to his false claims of a ‘stolen election.” The memo goes on to point out Trump “tweeted and made other statements against the Vice President as the Secret Service was being forced to rush Mike Pence out of the Senate chamber and into a protective bunker.” It’s unclear how widely disseminated the memo is among Republicans in Washington.McConnell is also facing pressure from a faction of Senate Republicans to stick with Trump, with some telling CNN that support for conviction could threaten McConnell’s leadership.  “No, no, no,” Sen. Ron Johnson, a Wisconsin Republican and Trump ally, told CNN when asked if he could support McConnell if he voted to convict Trump, calling such a vote a “dangerous precedent” and adding: “I don’t even think we should be having a trial.” “If you’re wanting to erase Donald Trump from the party, you’re going to get erased,” Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said on Fox News Wednesday. “This idea of moving forward without Donald Trump in the Republican Party is a disaster for the Republican Party.” There have also been public appeals for Republican lawmakers to take action against Trump. Former White House chief of staff John Kelly told CNN if it was up to him, he would vote to remove Trump. Former Attorney General Bill Barr accused the President of “orchestrating a mob to pressure Congress” and went on to call his conduct a “betrayal of his office.” Among some former Trump administration officials, the President’s actions around the January 6 riot aroused feelings of disgust.

“I almost threw up when I saw the President tweeting against Mike Pence,” said one former senior Trump official.

In addition, more than 30 former Republican members of Congress signed a letter urging House members to vote to impeach. At the same time, current and former Senate aides are encouraging their bosses to seriously consider voting to convict.

And in the days after January 6, a handful of House staffers whose bosses supported Trump resigned, including a senior GOP staffer on the House Armed Services Committee and aides to Reps. Lauren Boebert and Jim Jordan. “A lot of people view this as a fight for the party,” said one former Republican Hill aide. Others are hoping more Senate Republicans will step up. “In the Senate, there is more institutional respect and understanding of the long-term consequences,” said former Trump administration appointee Gabriel Noronha. “There is also real resentment of Trump and the damage he has done, and awareness of what this means in the next four to eight years.” Noronha recently made news when he was fired by the White House for a tweet condemning Trump’s actions on January 6. The consensus among the Republicans who spoke to CNN is that McConnell’s decision on conviction will sway others. On Tuesday, in his most forceful comments yet, McConnell tied Trump’s actions to the attack itself during a speech on the Senate floor. “The mob was fed lies,” McConnell said. “They were provoked by the President and other powerful people. And they tried to use fear and violence to stop a specific proceeding of the first branch of the federal government which they did not like. But we pressed on.” Since he is known as restrained and deliberate, McConnell’s words gave hope to Republicans who would like the party to split from Trump. “I hope Mitch’s institutional reverence for the Senate will overcome his natural political caution and will lead him to the conclusion that Trump is in the way of the party’s future,” said the former senior GOP official. “It feels like the weight of the energy in Washington with legal conservatives is pretty strongly in favor of impeachment,” said Gregg Nunziata, a former counsel to the Senate Republican conference who has reached out to senators himself. The former senior Republican official who would like to see Trump convicted characterized it as an internal war within the party and expressed pessimism that enough senators would rise to the occasion. “I have learned through sad experience that no one has lost money betting on the seemingly bottomless capacity of congressional R’s for self-abasement and cowardice,” said the former official. Nick Note: Its time to throw Trump under the bus. I guarantee the Trump supporters who are not drooling all over themselves and raping their 10 year old daughters are realizing what a evil man Trump really is. Its time to close the Trump chapter and move on. He is finished facing bankruptcy and criminal indictment in the state of New York.

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BofA Warns U.S. Policy Is Fueling a Bubble in Wall Street Prices

 

(Bloomberg) — Bank of America Corp. strategists warned the “extreme rally” on Wall Street that has pushed stocks to record highs, fueled by strong U.S. policy stimulus, is forming a bubble in asset prices. “D.C.’s policy bubble is fueling Wall St’s asset price,” strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note on Friday. “When those who want to stay rich start acting like those who want to get rich, it suggests a late-stage speculative blow-off.” The strategists predict a market correction and for positioning to peak in the first quarter, with the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator closing in on a “sell signal.” Soaring market prices as investors boost inflation-linked trades will drag “Main St inflation” higher, risking a taper tantrum, tighter financial conditions and volatility events, the strategists warned. They highlighted past bubbles including that of the dot-com era and the housing market in 2007-2008. Risk assets rallying on vaccine prospects are getting fresh impetus this year from bets that a win for U.S. Democrats in the Senate will spur further fiscal stimulus, adding to Federal Reserve largesse. The S&P 500 Index has surged more than 70% since its low last March, while the Nasdaq 100 has almost doubled and Bitcoin has soared above $30,000. Central-bank balance sheets have ballooned in 2020, growing to a record size for the Fed and the European Central Bank. BofA expects the Fed balance sheet to reach 42% of U.S gross domestic product this year, while predicting the country’s budget deficit will hit 33% of GDP. Nick Note: I predict the biggest stock market wipe out to date. BUT not until this senseless rally runs its course.

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The S&P 500 could gain 5% by the spring if US states boost vaccination rates, says the world’s largest wealth manager

  • UBS says the pace of COVID-19 vaccinations will be a key driver of stocks in 2021. 
  • The firm estimates the S&P 500 could gain 5% by the spring if the current pace of doses doubles.

UBS sees the pace of vaccinations as a key driver of stocks through 2021, similar to how shifts in mobility and COVID-19 cases drove markets in 2020. Using a model that tracks the relationship between equities and the pace of the vaccine rollout, the world’s largest wealth manager forecasts the S&P 500 could gain up to 5% by middle of the second quarter if the US ramps up vaccination rates.  As of Wednesday, the current pace of over 800,000 doses per day in the US is well below original government estimates. US states have administered just 40% of the allocated supply of vaccine doses, which means there’s potential for the pace to double. If that pace doubles, 33 million Americans could be vaccinated with both doses by April, according to UBS forecasts.  This doubling of the current dose per day pace would also push the the S&P 500 to new highs, while also leading to a 6%-9% gain for the Russell 2000 small cap index, said UBS. Smaller US states including West Virginia, Alaska, and the Dakotas have the highest vaccination rates, while 10 of the 12 largest US states have a vaccination rate below the average, with Georgia and California lagging the most. UBS said this suggests the US vaccination rate can improve as larger states overcome bottlenecks and catch up. Nick Note: Wet dream comes to mind. But yes they will get a big fat rally going. Which i plan to trade to the upside. And when the shrewd awaking comes the market will be stunned when they announce nationwide lockdowns. For mercantile interests the drug companies are not going to tell them the vaccines they are pumping into everyone arms will not stop the mutated strains. And they get to sell a billions or so booster shots. Oh i almost forgot.. the stock market will be devastated and the March wipe out last year will pail in comparison….

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Biden ordering stopgap help as talks start on big aid plan

BALTIMORE (AP) — President Joe Biden plans to take executive action Friday to provide a stopgap measure of financial relief to millions of Americans while Congress begins to consider his much larger $1.9 trillion package to help those affected by the coronavirus pandemic. The two executive orders that Biden is to sign would increase food aid, protect job seekers on unemployment and clear a path for federal workers and contractors to get a $15 hourly minimum wage. “The American people cannot afford to wait,” said Brian Deese, director of the White House National Economic Council. “So many are hanging by a thread. They need help, and we’re committed to doing everything we can to provide that help as quickly as possible.” Deese emphasized that the orders are not substitutes for the additional stimulus that Biden says is needed beyond the $4 trillion in aid that has already been approved, including $900 billion this past December. Several Republican lawmakers have voiced opposition to provisions in Biden’s plan for direct payments to individuals, state and local government aid and a $15 hourly minimum wage nationwide. Most economists believe the United States can rebound with strength once people are vaccinated from the coronavirus, but the situation is still dire as the disease has closed businesses and schools. Nearly 10 million jobs have been lost since last February, and nearly 30 million households lack secure access to food. One of Biden’s orders asks the Agriculture Department to consider adjusting the rules for food assistance, so that the government could be obligated to provide more money to the hungry. Children who are unable to get school meals because of remote learning could receive a 15% increase in food aid, according to a fact sheet provided by the White House. The lowest-income households could qualify for the emergency benefits from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. And the formula for calculating meal costs could become more generous. The order also tries to make it easier for people to claim direct payments from prior aid packages and other benefits. In addition, it would create a guarantee that workers could still collect unemployment benefits if they refuse to take a job that could jeopardize their health. Biden’s second executive order would restore union bargaining rights revoked by the Trump administration, protect the civil service system and promote a $15 hourly minimum wage for all federal workers. The Democratic president also plans to start a 100-day process for the federal government to require its contractors to pay at least $15 an hour and provide emergency paid leave to workers, which could put pressure on other private employers to boost their wages and benefits. These orders arrive as the Biden White House has declined to provide a timeline for getting its proposed relief package through, saying that officials are beginning to schedule meetings with lawmakers to discuss the proposal. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said at a Thursday briefing that the proposal has support ranging from democratic socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. But not all components of the package are popular among Republicans, and that could delay passage in ways that could injure the economy. Psaki stressed that Biden wants any deal to be bipartisan and that the process of meeting with lawmakers to talk through the plan is just beginning. Biden must balance the need for immediate aid against the risk of prolonged negotiations. Psaki told ABC’s “Good Morning America” on Friday that Biden is “not going to take tools off the table” as he looks to bring Republicans to the table, and she argued that the back-and-forth is “exactly how it should work.” “We’ll figure out what the sausage looks like when it comes out of the machine,” she said. Neil Bradley, chief policy officer at the Chamber, told reporters Thursday that Congress should act fast to approve the roughly $400 billion for national vaccination and reopening schools and other elements of the plan with bipartisan support, rather than drag out negotiations. “We’re not going to let areas of disagreement prevent progress on areas where we can find common ground,” Bradley said. “We cannot afford six months to get the vaccination process working right. … We can’t even wait six weeks to get vaccinations distributed and schools reopened.” Nick Note: Get this the vaccine they have not been able to get out is already obsolete. Endless booster shots are coming.

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Biden Team Sees Virus Vow at Risk on New Strain, Vaccine Stumble

(Bloomberg) — President Joe Biden’s team is increasingly worried the coronavirus pandemic is spiraling out of control — imperiling his promise to contain the outbreak — as cases and deaths mount, vaccinations lag and a more-transmissible strain emerges in the U.S., according to people familiar with the matter. As they learned more about the federal response to the pandemic, Biden’s transition team grew alarmed at a lack of coordination with states, the people said. Biden himself has warned of a “dark winter” and has flatly said the pandemic will worsen before it improves.

The stakes are escalating. U.S. hospitalizations are at near-record levels, and daily cases and deaths have doubled since Election Day on Nov. 3. While blame has fallen on the Trump administration for its failure to develop a national testing or vaccination strategy or encourage widespread mask-wearing, Biden’s team — which keeps adding new experts — now inherits the job of containing the pandemic. Nick Bit: I wish it was as easy as they think. It will take a ugly mask with the properfilter and strict isolation as in total lock down.

On Thursday, Biden will sign executive actions to “move aggressively to change the course of the Covid-19 crisis and safely re-open schools and businesses, including by taking action to mitigate spread through expanding testing, protecting workers, and establishing clear public health standards,” according to a memo by Ron Klain, the White House chief of staff. After taking office on Wednesday, one of Biden’s first acts was expected to be an order requiring face masks on federal property.

The most alarming developments have come over the past month. Some Biden advisers, who asked not to be identified discussing internal conversations, said it isn’t vaccine logistics that worry them most, but the new strain of the virus, which is more contagious.

The U.S. already has a perilously high baseline caseload — about 230,000 new infections a day, of late — that could quickly become unmanageable as the mutant strain takes hold. “This administration is inheriting such a horrible problem, not of their making,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and a member of the coronavirus advisory board for Biden’s transition. “This is a perfect storm.” Biden has staked much of his early presidency on achievements in his first 100 days, including a pledge to administer 100 million doses of vaccine and a challenge to Americans to routinely wear masks. His team hopes to vastly increase testing and push to reopen schools, trying to both do more to fight the virus and return Americans to a more normal daily life.

But the risk of explosive new strains, including a U.K. variant known as B.1.1.7, threatens to upend it all and leave Biden at the end of his first 100 days with a pandemic that has worsened, instead of improved. There’s concern among his team that the scope of the problem he’s inherited is far worse than anticipated, posing a political risk to Biden’s White House.If the new president fails to combat the virus effectively in his first few months, efforts to revive the economy or achieve other legislative priorities including an immigration overhaul or infrastructure development could be hamstrung. Biden’s aides privately allege that Trump’s administration dragged its heels in showing them details of the federal response and its data. Those concerns weren’t made public before the inauguration because Biden’s team believed it had to avoid publicly criticizing Trump’s team during the transition or risk being fully frozen out, people familiar with the matter said. The first days of the administration will be spent getting up to speed on the state of the response, one person said. A senior Trump administration official disputed that any information had been withheld from Biden’s transition, saying that since late November, there had been more than 300 meetings with Biden officials across the Department of Health and Human Services. The Trump administration also provided Biden’s team what the official said was unprecedented access to several “deliberative meetings,” as well as debriefings for some of them. On election day, the U.S. had never had a day with more than 100,000 new cases; since Nov. 5, it has never had a day with fewer than that. Osterholm predicted that the U.S. could see 400,000 to 500,000 daily new cases in 12 to 14 weeks, or roughly 100 days — five times higher than on election day.

“When this B.1.1.7 takes off, it’s going to be hell,” Osterholm said. “That’s what they’re walking into right now. I hope I’m wrong. God, I hope I’m wrong.”

In their planning, Biden advisers are also factoring in an exhausted, demoralized and bare-bones workforce in its departmental agencies, particularly at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “Biden is coming in with entire offices gutted, or morale is so low,” said Kavita Patel, a nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution, who served as director of policy for the Office of Intergovernmental Affairs and Public Engagement in Barack Obama’s administration. Vaccinations have fallen far short of targets set by President Donald Trump, who promised in September to have 100 million shots available by the end of the year. Just 16 million doses had been administered as of Wednesday, according to the Bloomberg vaccine tracker. The rising urgency is reflected in Biden’s own approach — during the transition he named a coronavirus advisory board, then a health team, and then a new batch of aides to bolster his response to the pandemic. Key positions remain unfilled, chiefly Food and Drug Administration commissioner. The vaccines work, though new strains threaten to degrade their efficacy. And one adviser wondered whether Biden’s public emphasis on mask-wearing and other sound public health practices would help, replacing Trump’s refusal to wear a mask and general scorn for recommended health guidelines. Nick Note: World wide infections and deaths are approaching records. 50 million people have been vaccinated and isolation and mask wearing is at record amounts. Even Israel where 40% of the population has been vaccineated is seeing records. Something is wrong…. And its the B,1,1,7 strain. A paper mask is a sick joke… It takes a ugly mask. And 6foot distancing is useless it takes isolation. Whats going on… Simple the drug companies want to clear out current vaccine production before they admit to you they need to modify their RNA strands to attack this new mutation. But you can listen to who you please. After all your life is in your hands. What you do does matter.

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The S&P 500 will jump another 8% – but looming risks could spark a sudden pullback, RBC says

  • RBC Capital expects the S&P 500 to climb 8% to 4,100 through 2021 as the US economy rebounds.
  • The benchmark will reach new records despite a brief stumble that’s likely to arrive in the first half of the year, the firm’s analysts said.
  • Market leadership will continue to shift from large-caps and growth stocks to value and cyclical names, they added.

Strategists led by Lori Calvasina set their 2021 target for the benchmark index at 4,100, implying a 7.9% climb for the S&P 500’s Tuesday closing level. Earnings are expected to rebound by 23% in 2021 and another 8% in 2022 as the US recovers from the coronavirus pandemic and its economic fallout. But such highs will likely only come after a brief stumble, according to the team. RBC expects a “period of consolidation” to drag on US equities before the market stages its next climb, with the dip likely arriving in the first half of the year. “It could be as mild as a mid-single-digit decline from the recent highs (taking the S&P 500 to about 3,600) or as deep as a drop in the mid-teens (about 3,200),” RBC’s team said in a note to clients. The S&P 500 stood at 3,848.94 as of 2:20 p.m. ET Wednesday, up 2.5% year-to-date. Stocks are sitting at record highs, but some analysts have raised concerns around whether the market is irrationally looking through significant risks. Indicators including retail sales and weekly jobless claims worsened in recent weeks, and COVID-19 cases continue to climb across the country. Vaccination and the chances of a Biden-backed stimulus bill have fueled the market’s latest gains, but herd immunity isn’t likely to be reached for months. Looking past the near-term, RBC named higher corporate taxes, tech-sector regulation, and a pullback of Federal Reserve support as other risks to its bullish outlook. Nick Note: the video and commentary is mostly bullshit. But they are starting to get high altitude sickness. Bubble markets end when they achieve exuberance. We are not their yet but getting close. I love the idea they are funding us to short the shit out of this insanity. But you need to understand this is not science but a trading art form. We may have to prob the downside several times before we catch the crash……

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Did Trump Secretly Pardon Himself and His Family?

Trump Pardon

Now former President Trump has gone into retirement in Florida there is speculation that he might have secretly pardoned himself and his family members.

The flurry of pardons had some breathing a sigh of relief that Trump hadn’t included himself in this latest batch, and while others noted that the day was still young, MSNBC host and Congress Nerd Lawrence O’Donnell raised another concern.

“Don’t trust the list,” O’Donnell wrote. “Trump doesn’t have to reveal the names of anyone he pardons. Trump can issue SECRET PARDONS. Trump can pardon himself & his family and keep that secret until they are charged with federal crimes.”

Former Acting Solicitor General and MSNBC analyst Neal Katyal threw some cold water on the idea, writing “I think secret pardons are constitutionally dubious (since the whole reason the pardon power is virtually unlimited is that Presidents are publicly accountable for them). But here it doesn’t matter, even if Trump tried secret pardons, Biden could make them public the next day.”I guess it is a waiting game to see what comes out of this. Nick Note: For a fact Trump issued pocket Pardons for himself, family and friends to use like poker chips.The documents were signed, sealed, delivered and witnessed. Pretty slick…A stack of get out of jail cards!