Author: BlackMask Financial

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Forced Isolation May Be the Only Way to Stop Resurgence of Virus

(Bloomberg) — Flare-ups from Australia to Japan show the world hasn’t learned an early lesson from the coronavirus crisis: to stop the spread, those with mild or symptom-free coronavirus infections must be forced to isolate, both from their communities and family. In Australia, where Victoria state has been reporting record deaths, some 3,000 checks last month on people who should have been isolating at home found 800 were out and about. In Japan, where the virus has roared back, people are staying home but aren’t in isolation: 40% of elderly patients are getting sick from family members in the same apartments. The failure to effectively manage contagious people with mild or no symptoms is a driving factor behind some of the world’s worst resurgences. But lessons from Italy, South Korea and others that have successfully contained large-scale outbreaks show that there’s a tried-and-tested approach to cutting off transmission: move them out of their homes into centralized facilities while they get over their infections, which usually doesn’t require longer than a few weeks.

“A laissez-faire approach naively trusting everyone to be responsible has been shown to be ineffective, as there will always be a proportion who will breach the terms of the isolation,” said Jeremy Lim, adjunct professor at the National University of Singapore’s Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health.

Faced with a new cluster this week after 102 days without a locally transmitted case, New Zealand has quickly enacted this strategy, placing 17 people — including two children below the age of 10 — into centralized quarantine.

But other countries facing sustained spread like Australia and the U.S. are not broadly enacting the policy despite its proven track record. Their unwillingness — or inability — to do so underscores the challenges faced by liberal democracies whose populations are less likely to tolerate measures that require individual sacrifice for the greater good.

The existence of a large group of carriers who hardly feel sick is a unique feature of the coronavirus crisis, and a major factor that has driven its rapid spread across the globe. Unlike in previous outbreaks like the 2003 SARS epidemic, many infected people don’t feel ill enough to stay home, and so spread the pathogen widely as they go about their daily lives.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated that 40% of Covid-19 infections are asymptomatic. Nick Note: I want to again make sure you understand what we are facing. Kicking and screaming all the way….. The US will go into forced lockdowns…  Ok here we go. Social distancing is a sick Joke. The virus  spreads in a nanoparticle vapor cloud. It can stay in the air as an aerosol for 3 hours and spread hundreds of feet. REALITY is the masks of coffee filter paper or cotton surgical masks are a sick joke. And social distancing will not work it will take isolation. Besides opening move theaters, airline and restaurants the cat killers are sending the kids back to school. This folly means that by October they will have no choice but to do China style lock downs. Concentration camps and all. You have been warned! You would think they would not want to experiment on the children and error on the side of caution. Reality is the sold out politicians from the HA HA HA HA commander and chef on down are facing elections… so fuck the masses.

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Israel – UAE agreement important for peace

Trump wh0 is badly behind 10% in tracking poles needs to pull a rabbit out of his hat. In fact he needs a bunny farm. His latest publicity stunt is the Israel  UAE peace deal. You got to give him credit… this is a breakthrough for Middle East peace. And as a side benefit it further isolates Iran. In fact Iranian aggression is driving the gulf Arab states into the welcoming arms of  US and Europe. And the oil market damn well knows it. As i file this report Crude oil has dropped by .50 cents a barrel and is trading at the lower end of its trading range of the past week. If you have been sweating the oil trade. You can breath a half sigh of relief…….. The last peace deal was 1994 when Israel signed its only other peace deal that has held with Jordan… This puts the pressure on the other Middle East powers… Including Egypt. They are not going to risk their fiefdoms over the Palestinians. And this is acknowledgement  that Israel is a modern military military power. with both state of the art defensive weapons and An offensive power house including Nukes, Space launch capacity (think ICBMS) and nuclear equipped stealth  submarines…. Nick

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U.S. reports highest number of covid-19 deaths in one day since mid-May

The United States on Wednesday recorded its highest Covid-19 death toll for the month of August, with states reporting a total of 1,485 deaths, the highest number of  daily deaths reported since mid-May.

According to an update on New York Times, however, the spikes reported in late July were primarily due to states like Texas, New York and New Jersey reporting a large number of previously unreported deaths from unspecified days, which would mean that Wednesday’s figures reflect the highest number of daily COVID deaths since mid-May. Wednesday’s spike was primarily driven by states in the south and the west with Texas reporting more than 300 deaths, Florida more than 200 deaths and Arizona, California and Georgia all reporting in excess of 100 deaths each. The United States reported 55,742 new cases on Wednesday, a significant decline from the 75,000 plus figures being reported in mid-July, but the decline in cases comes with a caveat that daily testing across the country has also declined. Wednesday’s toll, however, was still significantly lower than the peak witnessed between mid to late April with the U.S. recording more than 2000 deaths a day.

211,500. That is the number of excess deaths reported in the United States since the pandemic began in March, according to a report in The New York Times. This number is 60,000 more than what the official figures have directly linked to Covid-19, likely suggesting a significant undercount in coronavirus deaths. The U.S. has reported more than 155,000 deaths directly linked to Covid-19, with some states reporting additional deaths that are probably linked to the coronavirus. Experts had warned that the sharp spike in the number of new cases that began in late June would lead to a similar spike in deaths in the preceding weeks since most deaths occur weeks after a person contracts the virus. Despite the spike in the death toll, President Trump continues to push for school and business reopenings across the country. “We’ve got to open up our schools and open up our businesses,” Trump said at a White House presser on Wednesday, adding that he wanted to see a college football season this fall. Nick Note: I follow the markets day and night. I am on top of the virus spread. And unequivocally Every single country that has open up schools has seen infections soar and has shut things right back down again. Same thing with business openings and sporting events. In the sports bubbles they created players are getting infected. these are people in the peek of health with the finest medical care money can buy… And its not working! The virus is more infectious then ever. Its gone aerosol into a nanparticle. Make sure you got your masks.

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Lots of new infections among young people

https://youtu.be/cT5zTz3yIsg

German Health Minister Jens Spahn said on Thursday that the country is witnessing the falling of the average age of people infected with COVID-19. “We’re seeing a lot of new infections among young people,” Spahn told ZDF Television and added that he is optimistic that “in the coming months and certainly next year there can be a coronavirus vaccine.” According to the Berliner Morgenpost, the overall number of infected people in the country stands at 220,883 while the death toll reached 9,217. In the last 24 hours, there were 1,319 newly infected people that represents the biggest rise since May this year.

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Infections surge in France, Germany and Spain

Germany has recorded its biggest daily increase in coronavirus cases in more than three months as European countries struggle to curb a surge in infections. More than 1,200 cases were reported in Germany in the past 24 hours. Officials said the rise was due, in part, to people returning from holidays. It came as Germany warned against non-essential trips to parts of Spain. Meanwhile, France had 2,524 new cases in 24 hours, the highest daily rise since its lockdown was lifted in May. The German foreign ministry said it had added a partial travel warning to the Spanish capital Madrid and the Basque region on Tuesday amid rising infections there. Warnings were already in place for the regions of Aragon, Catalonia and Navarra. Germany has recorded more than 9,000 coronavirus-related deaths since the pandemic began. Spain is facing the worst coronavirus infection rate in Western Europe. It recorded 1,418 new infections in its latest daily count on Tuesday and said there were 675 “active outbreaks” in the country. Salvador Macip, an expert in health sciences at Catalonia’s Open University, told AFP news agency the country was at a “critical moment”. “We are right at a point where things can get better or worse. This means we have to pull out all the stops to curb outbreaks before they become more serious,” he said. In total, Spain has recorded more than 326,000 cases – the highest number in Western Europe and the 11th highest in the world. Wearing a face mask became compulsory in all public areas in Brussels on Wednesday amid a rise in cases. The order applies to those aged 12 and above. People were previously only required to wear masks in crowded public spaces and enclosed areas of the Belgian capital, such as shopping centres. Authorities said the enhanced rules were introduced because of a rise in infections, with Brussels recording an average of 50 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants per day over the past week. Police checks are being ramped up to ensure that people follow the new rules. The mask-wearing regulation is one of the strictest currently in place in Europe. Belgium has recorded more than 75,000 cases of coronavirus and more than 9,800 deaths, according to data collated by Johns Hopkins University. This year’s Paris marathon has been cancelled as France battles a spike in coronavirus cases, organisers said on Wednesday. The marathon was originally due to take place on 5 April but was then postponed to 15 November because of the pandemic. Organisers said they had “tried everything to maintain the event” but felt “obliged” to call it off. “There will be great disappointment among those who have sacrificed time training for what had become an autumn marathon,” they said. Organisers are now working on the 2021 marathon. The announcement came after Paris became the latest French city to make face masks compulsory in busy outdoor areas. Face masks were already compulsory nationwide in enclosed public spaces. A government spokesman on Wednesday said France would gradually ramp up police checks to ensure that people were respecting social distancing and wearing masks where required. “We’re at a tipping point… We’re going to mobilise polices forces to make checks,” Gabriel Attal told journalists. France has now recorded a total of 206,696 cases of the virus.

 

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America’s flying blind on its coronavirus response

A month after the Trump administration changed how hospital data is reported, the public release of this data “has slowed to a crawl,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

The big picture: This is the latest example of how the world’s wealthiest country just can’t get it together.

Testing and case data — which tell the story of where people are getting sick — have been a problem for the last six months. This latest fiasco blurs the picture of how many people are getting very sick at a given time, which until now has been a more reliable measure of the pandemic.

Driving the news: The Department of Health and Human Services last month ordered states to report coronavirus hospitalization data directly to the agency, rather than to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as they’d been doing.

  • Now, important data, like the number of beds occupied by coronavirus patients, is lagging by a week or more.
  • The implications go beyond tracking the virus. Hospitalization data is also used by agencies to determine where to send remdesivir and personal protective equipment.

What they’re saying: “The transition has been a disaster,” Jeffrey Engel, senior adviser to the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, told the WSJ. “What HHS said was that the CDC was not nimble enough and couldn’t handle new data elements, and that’s simply not true.”

The other side: HHS officials told the WSJ that the new system has a more complete set of data, but that the quality-control process has led to some delays as the new system gets up and running.

The bottom line: We’re doing a terrible job handling the pandemic, at least relative to other wealthy countries. The fact that we don’t have a good idea of what’s happening in real time – and it’s getting worse — is one of the major contributors to that failure. Nick Note: we have lost our critical data. Its politicized and useless. Trump reports  cases flatting and Doctors and corners report cases running out of control

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EIA Weekly Petroleum Data August 7, 2020

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 514.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 15% above the five year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.7 million barrels per day during the week ending August 7, 2020 which was 21,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 81.0% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.8 million barrels per day.U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.6 million barrels per day last week, down by 389,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.7 million barrels per day, 20.4% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 1.0 million barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 148,000 barrels per day.  Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.7 million barrels last week and are about 8% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels last week and are about 24% above the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels last week and are about 13% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 6.2 million barrels last week.Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 18.5 million barrels a day, down by 14.3% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.7 million barrels a day, down by 10.2% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 9.3% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was down 45.8% compared with the same four-week period last year

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OPEC: Global oil demand to drop by 9.1M bpd in 2020

OPEC trims 2020 oil demand, sees doubts about 2021 on virus fallout
OPEC trims 2020 oil demand, sees doubts about 2021 on virus fallout

OPEC said on Wednesday that world oil demand will fall more steeply in 2020 than previously forecast due to the pandemic and there were uncertainties about next year’s recovery.

LONDON OPEC said on Wednesday that world oil demand will fall more steeply in 2020 than previously forecast due to the pandemic and there were uncertainties about next year’s recovery. World oil demand will fall by 9.06 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report, more than the 8.95 million bpd decline expected a month ago. Oil prices have collapsed as the coronavirus curtailed travel and economic activity. While some countries have eased lockdowns allowing demand to recover, concern over new outbreaks has kept a lid on prices and OPEC expects this to persist. “Crude and product price developments in the second half of 2020 will continue to be impacted by concerns over a second wave of infections and higher global stocks,” OPEC said in the report. OPEC stuck to its forecast that in 2021 oil demand would rebound by 7 million bpd but said the view was subject to large uncertainties that may result in “a negative impact on petroleum consumption,” such as demand for air travel, more fuel-efficient cars and more competition from other fuels. “Almost all forecasters expect jet fuel in 2021 to struggle making up for lost demand,” OPEC said. “Gasoline demand will face pressure to return to 2019 levels.” To tackle the drop in demand, OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to a record supply cut of 9.7 million bpd that started on May 1, while the United States and other nations said they would pump less. In the report, OPEC said its output rose by 980,000 bpd to 23.17 million bpd in July, largely because Saudi Arabia and other Gulf members ended extra voluntary cuts they had made in June. That amounted to 97% compliance with the pledges, according to a Reuters calculation – lower than June’s figure of well above 100%. Nick Note: At present depressed levels of production and demand that is still down and dropping, the world is way over supplied… And global inventories are still building. And it is my firm belief with record breaking increases in infections, hospitalizations and unfortunately deaths lockdowns are coming. Besides people who are infected do not go to work, do not drive and consume minimal amounts of energy

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Quinine in Tonic Water: There is always a way!

everybody has an opinion and a asshole

Nick Bit: When I first arrived on the tropics on my Yacht, I ran across a Englishman who had lived on the islands for years. He came to me at the local Yacht club and introduced himself. Then he sat down at my table ordered himself a Gin and tonic on my tab. His name was Goeff and he owned a company called Marine Services. The Local Chandelier and Haul out facility.

He said you are new to the tropics and I asked him how do you know? He said because you have barnacles on your water line from cold waters and you’re still white. He said there are two things you need in the tropics… And he handed me a captains hat so the sun did not burn my scalp and a gin and tonic. He told me to drink Quinine water every day so I did not get Malaria.

So for over 20 years in the tropics I wore a captains hat and I still drank a liter of Schweppes Quinine water every day with lemon and fruits. For ten years I  added Hydroxychloroquine tablet once a week. I never got Malaria and I never got the Plague… Knock on wood! But I can’t tell you if the shit works or not. There is plenty of debate!

Geoff and I became good friends and I sold him the Yacht on terms when I purchased a bigger one.

And I still drink Quinine water every day and have my pills but this time because of the plague.

Quinine in Tonic Water: What Is It and Is It Safe?

Medically reviewed by Natalie Butler, RD, LD — Written by James Roland — Updated on September 18, 2018
Overview

Quinine is a bitter compound that comes from the bark of the cinchona tree. The tree is most commonly found in South America, Central America, the islands of the Caribbean, and parts of the western coast of Africa. Quinine was originally developed as a medicine to fight malaria. It was crucial in reducing the death rate of workers building the Panama Canal in the early 20th century.

Quinine, when found in small doses in tonic water, is safe to consume. The first tonic waters contained powdered quinine, sugar, and soda water. Tonic water has since become a common mixer with liquor, the most well-known combination being gin and tonic.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) allows tonic water to contain no more than 83 parts per million of quinine, because there can be side effects from quinine.

Today, people sometimes drink tonic water to treat nighttime leg cramps associated with circulatory or nervous system problems. However, this treatment is not recommended. Quinine is still given in in small doses to treat malaria in tropical regions.

Benefits and uses of quinine

Quinine’s primary benefit is for the treatment of malaria. It’s not used to prevent malaria, but rather to kill the organism responsible for the disease. When used to treat malaria, quinine is given in a pill form.

Quinine is still in tonic water, which is consumed around the world as a popular mixer with spirits, such as gin and vodka. It’s a bitter beverage, though some manufacturers have tried to soften the taste a little with added sugars and other flavors.

Side effects and risks

Quinine in tonic water is diluted enough that serious side effects are unlikely. If you do have a reaction, it may include:

  • nausea
  • stomach cramps
  • diarrhea
  • vomiting
  • ringing in the ears
  • confusion
  • nervousness

However, these are more common side effects for quinine taken as a medication. Among the most serious potential side effects associated with quinine are:

  • bleeding problems
  • kidney damage
  • abnormal heartbeat
  • severe allergic reaction

Keep in mind that these reactions are primarily linked to quinine, the medication. You would have to drink about two liters of tonic water a day to consume a day’s dose of quinine in pill form.

Who should avoid quinine?

If you’ve had a bad reaction to tonic water or quinine in the past, you should not try it again. You may also be advised against taking quinine or drinking tonic water if you:

  • have an abnormal heart rhythm, especially a prolonged QT interval
  • have low blood sugar (because quinine can cause your blood sugar to drop)
  • are pregnant
  • have kidney or liver disease
  • are taking medications, such as blood thinners, antidepressants, antibiotics, antacids, and statins (these medications may not preclude you from taking quinine or drinking tonic water, but you should tell your doctor about these and any other medications you take if you’re prescribed quinine)
Where else can you find quinine?

While a gin and tonic and vodka and tonic are staples at any bar, tonic water is becoming a more versatile beverage. It’s now mixed with tequila, brandy, and just about any other alcoholic beverage. Citrus flavors are often added, so if you see the term “bitter lemon” or “bitter lime,” you know the drink includes tonic water with a sour fruit flavor added.

However, tonic water isn’t just used to mix with spirits. Chefs may include tonic water in batter when frying seafood or in desserts that also include gin and other liquors.

Takeaway

If tonic water is your mixer of choice, you’re probably safe to have a little now and then. But don’t drink it thinking it will cure nighttime leg cramps or conditions such as restless leg syndrome. The science isn’t there for tonic water or quinine to treat these conditions. See a doctor instead and explore other options. But if you’re traveling to a part of the world where malaria is still a threat, ask about the use of quinine to treat the disease if you’re unfortunate enough to contract it.

Nick Note: I swear by the stuff in drink and pill form. But i am NOT A DOCTOR. SO consult your medical professional and CHEERS!
References Below

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ABN AMRO to shut down commodity trade business

ABN Amro Bank NV will cut its investment bank by about a third and shut down lending outside of Europe as the Dutch bank tries to turn around business hit hard by the market chaos caused by the coronavirus crisis. ABN Amro will stop providing corporate finance outside Europe and exit trade and commodity financing altogether, the Dutch bank said on Wednesday. As many as 800 jobs could be lost as the investment bank pulls back from activities that currently bring in about 45% of client loans. Nick Note: Ring ring goes the phone…. Yes John…. Hey that was a great call on gold and silver yesterday! John i am busy what do you want. Well i have a deal for you…… NO THANKS!! ….. John says you have not heard my deal yet……. I am sure its sleazy John i know how you operate. John says listen me and my teams are available… I said you mean you got fired after the loses you booked at Arno……  John says Look no one say that coming…….. REALLY JOHN! …. He then says none can trade your dream’s…… John what do you want? We are starting our own firm… we have financing and I was wondering if your interested in advising our FUND…No JOHN NO JOHN NO…. and then i hear him say  YOUR CRAZY man this market will recover…… SO why call me again John? blah blah balh blah…bye John send me a email when it happens… Click goes the phone!