DUBAI/MOSCOW/LONDON (Reuters) – OPEC and other oil nations held talks on Thursday on record production cuts of up to 20 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 20% of global supplies, to support prices hammered by the coronavirus crisis, OPEC and Russian sources said. Talks have been complicated by frictions between OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC Russia, but OPEC and Russian sources said they had managed to overcome differences. “That is a global deal,” one OPEC source said, without specifying whether it would involve the participation of the United States, something Russia and OPEC producers have insisted on.Global fuel demand has plunged as much as 30 million bpd, 30% of global supplies, as measures to fight the coronavirus have grounded aircraft, reduced vehicle usage and curbed economic activity. U.S. President Donald Trump said last week a deal he had brokered with Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to cuts of 10 million to 15 million bpd, even that figure, lower than the one cited by sources on Thursday, was unprecedented. The biggest one-off cut previously agreed by OPEC alone was 2.2 million bpd during the 2008 financial crisis. OPEC sources have also indicated such a big cut was possible, if the United States joined in. But Washington has yet to show it is ready to take part. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a new deal on cuts was “hardly possible” without others participating. Peskov was speaking before the start of a video conference between ministers from OPEC+ – which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other oil producers – as well as additional participants. The United States was invited but it was not clear if joined in. Washington has said U.S. output was falling gradually due to lower prices, which Russia says is not the same as making cuts. It was not clear yet from what levels Moscow and Riyadh were proposing to agree to cut. Moscow had said cuts must be based on levels in the first quarter while Saudi Arabia had insisted on April, when its output jumped steeply. Nick Note: their is a deal.. Of course we got to go through the normal posturing and denials but the deal is in the oven on bake!
Norway Might Join Output Cuts If Major Producers Reach A Deal
Norway could discuss reducing its oil production if the world’s major producers reach a deal on significantly cutting global oil production, Tina Bru, Minister for Petroleum and Energy of Western Europe’s biggest oil producer, told Reuters over the weekend. “If a broad group of producers agree to cut production significantly, Norway will consider a unilateral cut if it supports our resource management and our economy,” Bru told Reuters via email on Saturday. This week, a broad group of producers are expected to discuss a global cut in oil production to try to prevent the glut from overwhelming storage within weeks and to prop up oil prices so low that no one’s happy with them. Analysts remain skeptical that a major coalition of producers, including the United States, will agree to enforce significant production cuts in the range of 10 million bpd-15 million bpd, as touted by U.S. President Donald Trump. While all producers signal willingness to participate in talks, no one is willing to cut unless everyone else—including the U.S.—agrees to take part in those cuts. Norway, for its part, is not a member of either OPEC or the extended OPEC+ format, which collapsed last month but is set to be revived at least in the form of talks expected later this week. While Norway had cut its production in the 1990s and early 2000s when prices were low, it hasn’t done so as part of any deal with OPEC or other producers. Right now, Norway by itself cannot do anything to help the severely imbalanced market, Reuters quoted Bru as saying to private Norwegian broadcaster TV2 last week. “We’re still producing profitably at today’s oil price and nothing indicates that we’ll end up in a situation where we’d have to cut output,” the minister said last week. Some Norwegian oilfields would turn in profits even at $10 oil, the Norwegian minister told the television broadcaster.
Intelligence report warned of coronavirus crisis as early as November: Sources
Two years in two weeks squared
As far back as late November, U.S. intelligence officials were warning that a contagion was sweeping through China’s Wuhan region, changing the patterns of life and business and posing a threat to the population, according to four sources briefed on the secret reporting. Concerns about what is now known to be the novel coronavirus pandemic were detailed in a November intelligence report by the military’s National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI), according to two officials familiar with the document’s contents. The report was the result of analysis of wire and computer intercepts, coupled with satellite images. It raised alarms because an out-of-control disease would pose a serious threat to U.S. forces in Asia — forces that depend on the NCMI’s work. And it paints a picture of an American government that could have ramped up mitigation and containment efforts far earlier to prepare for a crisis poised to come home.
“Analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event,” one of the sources said of the NCMI’s report. “It was then briefed multiple times to” the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s Joint Staff and the White House. Wednesday night, the Pentagon issued a statement denying the “product/assessment” existed.
From that warning in November, the sources described repeated briefings through December for policy-makers and decision-makers across the federal government as well as the National Security Council at the White House. All of that culminated with a detailed explanation of the problem that appeared in the President’s Daily Brief of intelligence matters in early January, the sources said. For something to have appeared in the PDB, it would have had to go through weeks of vetting and analysis, according to people who have worked on presidential briefings in both Republican and Democratic administrations. “The timeline of the intel side of this may be further back than we’re discussing,” the source said of preliminary reports from Wuhan. “But this was definitely being briefed beginning at the end of November as something the military needed to take a posture on.” Those analyses said China’s leadership knew the epidemic was out of control even as it kept such crucial information from foreign governments and public health agencies.”It would be a significant alarm that would have been set off by this,” former Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary Mick Mulroy, now an ABC News contributor, said of the NCMI report. “And it would have been something that would be followed up by literally every intelligence-collection agency.” Mulroy, who previously served as a senior official at the CIA, said NCMI does serious work that senior government leaders do not ignore. “Medical intelligence takes into account all source information — imagery intelligence, human intelligence, signals intelligence,” Mulroy said. “Then there’s analysis by people who know those specific areas. So for something like this to have come out, it has been reviewed by experts in the field. They’re taking together what those pieces of information mean and then looking at the potential for an international health crisis.” NCMI is a component of the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency. Together, the agencies’ core responsibilities are to ensure U.S. military forces have the information they need to carry out their missions — both offensively and defensively. It is a critical priority for the Pentagon to keep American service members healthy on deployments.
Asked about the November warning last Sunday on ABC’s “This Week,” Defense Secretary Mark Esper told Chief Anchor George Stephanopoulos, “I can’t recall, George. But we have many people who watch this closely. We have the premier infectious disease research institute in America, within the United States Army. So, our people who work these issues directly watch this all the time.”
Pressing the secretary, Stephanopoulos asked, “So, you would have known if there was briefed to the National Security Council in December, wouldn’t you?” Esper said, “Yes. I’m not aware of that.”
.@Gstephanopoulos: “Did the Pentagon receive an intelligence assessment on COVID in China last November from the National Center for Medical Intelligence?”
Defense Sec. Mark Esper: “I can’t recall, George, but we have many people that watch this closely.” https://t.co/d9XlhTygln pic.twitter.com/E89i7DjF4t
For his part, President Donald Trump has alternated between taking credit for early action and claiming that the coronavirus was a surprise to him and everyone else. He has repeatedly touted his Jan. 31 decision to restrict air travel with China, but at the same time, he spent weeks telling the public and top administration officials that there was nothing for Americans to fear.
On Jan. 22, for instance, Trump made his first comments about the virus when asked in a CNBC interview, “Are there worries about a pandemic at this point?” The president responded, “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.” Nick Note: As you know we run a formidable private intelligence service here. We new in November that their was a pandemic and so stated. Since then i have reported to you my reaccruing dream (i call it a vision but we all know i am full of shit) and as you know we set up the Pandemic Informer web sight. AND we were the first to report the cure that is now working! What triggered me very early in this latest outbreak was the fact ten years ago i expected the Bird Flue to become a global pandemic. It did not and we did not publish t that time although the predictions of what is occurring now were recorded then. It is scary… i wrote the report then.. That is (10 years ago) when we established our research ongoing into the corono viruses that we new FOR SURE would become a global Pandemic.. In that decades long process we made contacts and we collected filed and analyzed EVERY study on drugs that could possible stop the disease. During the bird flue pandemic I did not publish because i did not want to panic people and i had to be sure it would spread globally. it did not and we did not publish.. I want you to know for the record the stock market panic you now see was was part of my previous analysis. If it was not for the 2008 financial panic and 2 years stimulate program we would not be in the reversal we are seeing in the markets. Let me explain. In two weeks we got massive (like never seen before) $6,000,000,000 stimulants that has double the 2008 bailouts that took 2 years*. . Two years of stimulus in two week with the amounts squared….. And more on the way. To say they have panicked and over stimulated is a under statement. DO NOT MAKE THE MISTAKE THAT OTHER KNOW NOTHING ARE MAKING. 1,000,000% their will be NO inflation and 2,000,000% they will EASILY FINANCE THIS MONEY SHOWER. For the record its a hurricane of money. Two years from now their will be a problem. Lets concentrate on harvesting the current crop and we will deal with next years harvest later.
Warren: Congress to raise cap on aid for small businesses
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said Wednesday that Congress should eliminate the cap on total aid for small businesses impacted by the coronavirus. Warren, in a string of tweets, said “raising the cap” to provide more in total aid was a first step but didn’t go far enough given the concern from employers that the pool of money will run out. “Small businesses across America are facing collapse. But the program Congress created to help them stay afloat & keep workers on payroll has too little money and too much confusion. We need a new law to fix the program and eliminate the cap on total relief – immediately,” Warren tweeted. “Every small business that qualifies should get the help they need, period. We should provide an absolute guarantee.” Her call to remove the funding cap comes after Congress passed a $2.2 trillion relief package late last month that included $349 billion in loans — that, depending on their use, could turn into forgivable grants — for small businesses. The program, known as the Paycheck Protection Program, has seen a high level of interest from business owners as the coronavirus outbreak has caused firms in almost all sectors of the economy to scale back or close altogether. Administration officials and lawmakers say they believe more funding will be needed to cover the number of applications. The Treasury Department has requested an extra $250 billion, which would bring the total for the Paycheck Protection Program to $600 billion. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McMcConnell (R-Ky.) said on Tuesday that he will try to pass the bill by unanimous consent or voice vote as soon as Thursday. It’s unclear if Democrats, or fiscal hawks within his own conference, will allow the bill to move that quickly. McConnell started a “hotline” for the additional funding on Wednesday morning, a move that requests senators inform leadership if they will object to the bill’s passage. The procedural tactic could give Senate leaders a count on how many senators are considering objecting. Nick Note: Conrad everyone gets a happy check. Every time things get tough the allure of the free cheese is to much for the masses to say no to. And ALWAYS all that liquidity ends up in the stock market…..
Dow surges 600 pts as Sanders quits 2020 race
The Dow Jones soared nearly 500 points on Wednesday following Bernie Sanders’ decision to quit his presidential campaign. Meanwhile, White House Health Advisor Anthony Fauci estimated the United States could see a slight outbreak decay next week and New York Mayor Bill De Blasio revealed coronavirus hospitalization rates in the city begun to stabilize. The Dow advanced 2.53% at 11:44 am ET, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.81% at the same time. A minute later, the S&P 500 jumped 2.31%. “The path toward victory is virtually impossible,” said Sanders in a webcast that he started by thanking his supporters. “I have concluded that this battle for the Democratic nomination will not be successful.” Just two months ago, Wall Street analysts were warning about a potential drop for stocks SPX, +2.26% DJIA, 2.38% if Sanders, a democratic socialist, continued to perform well in the fight to become the Democratic nominee challenging President Donald Trump in November. But Biden re-emerged as the favorite in the party’s White House race about a month ago, powered by primary wins in South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states. Sanders — Vermont’s junior senator and a fundraising juggernaut — had been facing calls to drop out in recent weeks. Nick Note: No need to run two socialists. Comrade Trump is doing a fine job pushing America into s socialists utopia.
Economy US lawmakers propose $3B funding for buying oil for SPR
A bipartisan group of American lawmakers introduced a bill on Tuesday which would ensure $3 billion in funding for buying oil for the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in order to support the country’s energy companies amid a drop in crude prices. “This legislation provides important support to our domestic energy industry at a time when they are not only challenged by the impacts of the coronavirus but also a global oil price war. Purchasing US oil for the SPR will not only benefit our energy producers, but also taxpayers and our national security,” Senator John Hoeven (pictured), who introduced the legislation with Representatives Lizzie Fletcher and Michael Burgess, stated. In March, the US Energy Department announced it will buy 30 million barrels of crude oil for its strategic reserve at the direction of President Donald Trump. Nice Note: For a fact without a doubt oil will do a zoom zoom zoom. Why its simple … its a trillion dollar industry and they are not Not NOT going to lose it. Anymore then Boeing going down either.
US stocks erase all gains despite additional funding announcement
U.S. stocks finished lower Tuesday, far from session highs, thwarting a second session of gains despite signs that the COVID-19 pandemic may be leveling off in parts of the world. Markets also kept an eye on further planned U.S. measures to help dampen the recessionary impact of shutdowns and business closures intended to limit the epidemic. Eagerness to buy beaten-down stocks on Wall Street faded in afternoon trade, even as investors focused on signs of a slowdown in new daily deaths and infections from COVID-19, the deadly disease that was first identified in Wuhan, China in December. “Stocks are giving the impression that the market may have moved too far too quickly,” Robert Pavlik, chief investment strategist at SlateStone Wealth, told MarketWatch. “With yesterday’s major point gain and lack of a follow through today, there is a thinking that some money is being taken off the table.” Meanwhile, Italy reported the lowest number of new coronavirus infections in nearly three weeks, after China reported no new deaths, though deaths in Spain rose after declining for four consecutive days. Reports also suggested that U.S. lawmakers are hashing out a so-called Phase 4 relief package for next month that could be worth more than $1 trillion, to help prop up the economy and assist workers and small companies, according to Bloomberg. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Tuesday he wanted another $250 billion from Congress to help shore up small businesses. Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida said a bipartisan effort to further aid could be put to a vote Thursday, potentially expanding aid to employers and their workers during the shutdown. These factors have offered some guarded optimism to bullish investors still wrestling with fallout from the pandemic, which has pushed domestic and international economies into recession. Nick Not: we are in the early stages of the biggest bull market ever
Superpowers Clash Ahead Of Most Important Oil Meeting Ever
Russia is ready to hold constructive talks aimed at stabilizing the oil market, and those talks don’t have alternative, Vladimir Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday. Russia did not support the end of the OPEC+ deal, Peskov told Russian television channel Rossiya 24 on Sunday. President Putin and Russia as a whole are inclined to take part in a constructive negotiation process –which doesn’t have alternative right now – to stabilize the international energy market, Peskov added. Saudi Arabia, Russia, and many other oil producers were set to video-meet on Monday to discuss ways of supporting collapsing oil prices by potentially cutting 10 million bpd, or even 15 million bpd, of global oil production. Over the weekend, however, Saudi Arabia and Russia traded accusations, claiming that the other was the reason the OPEC+ pact collapsed last month, widening the rift between the two former allies and leading to a postponement of the Monday meeting to Thursday, April 9. Putin said last week that Saudi Arabia’s oil price war and its readiness to offer steep discounts for its oil targeted to bankrupt U.S. shale. Saudi Arabia responded to that by accusing Russia of breaking up the OPEC+ coalition last month. The words attributed to Putin by media are “fully devoid of truth,” Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, said in a statement late on Friday. “The withdrawal of the kingdom from the agreement is not correct, but that Russia was the one that refused the agreement, while the Kingdom and 22 other countries were trying to persuade Russia to make further cuts and extend the agreement, yet Russia has not agreed,” the official Saudi Press Agency quoted the Saudi foreign minister as saying. Meanwhile, both Saudi Arabia and Russia signal that while they are ready to talk potential production cuts, they would consider doing so only if major producers from outside the OPEC+ format, including the United States, join such cuts. Nick Note: their will be a deal their always is
OPEC+ mulls three-month-long cuts – report
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied oil-producing nations are negotiating a three-month-long reduction in oil output, Russian news agency TASS reported on Tuesday, citing two anonymous sources from the alliance. The potential deal would run from May to the end of July 2020. The month of May would be chosen as the starting point for the agreement “since deliveries for April have already been scheduled,” one of the insiders clarified. Earlier in the day, Russia confirmed its attendance at the OPEC+ videoconference on April 9.
Superpowers Clash Ahead Of Most Important Oil Meeting Ever
Russia is ready to hold constructive talks aimed at stabilizing the oil market, and those talks don’t have alternative.
Russia did not support the end of the OPEC+ deal, Peskov told Russian television channel Rossiya 24 on Sunday. President Putin and Russia as a whole are inclined to take part in a constructive negotiation process –which doesn’t have alternative right now – to stabilize the international energy market, Peskov added. Saudi Arabia, Russia, and many other oil producers were set to video-meet on Monday to discuss ways of supporting collapsing oil prices by potentially cutting 10 million bpd, or even 15 million bpd, of global oil production. Over the weekend, however, Saudi Arabia and Russia traded accusations, claiming that the other was the reason the OPEC+ pact collapsed last month, widening the rift between the two former allies and leading to a postponement of the Monday meeting to Thursday, April 9. Putin said last week that Saudi Arabia’s oil price war and its readiness to offer steep discounts for its oil targeted to bankrupt U.S. shale. Saudi Arabia responded to that by accusing Russia of breaking up the OPEC+ coalition last month. The words attributed to Putin by media are “fully devoid of truth,” Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, said in a statement. “The withdrawal of the kingdom from the agreement is not correct, but that Russia was the one that refused the agreement, while the Kingdom and 22 other countries were trying to persuade Russia to make further cuts and extend the agreement, yet Russia has not agreed,” the official Saudi Press Agency quoted the Saudi foreign minister as saying. Meanwhile, both Saudi Arabia and Russia signal that while they are ready to talk potential production cuts, they would consider doing so only if major producers from outside the OPEC+ format, including the United States, join such cuts.