Author: BlackMask Financial

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WHO concerned about coronavirus cases with no clear link

https://youtu.be/mvU2_sBn_RE

VIENNA (Reuters) – The World Health Organization (WHO) is concerned about the number of coronavirus cases with no clear epidemiological link, although the total number of cases outside China remains relatively small, its director general said on Saturday.

Cases with no clear link include those with no travel history to China or contact with a confirmed case, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a briefing.

China has reported 75,569 cases to the WHO, including 2,239 deaths, he said. According to available data, the disease remains mild in 80% of coronavirus patients, and is severe or critical in 20% of patients, he said. The virus has been fatal in 2% of reported cases. The risk of death increases for older patients, Tedros said, adding there were relatively few cases among children. Outside China, there have been 1,200 cases in 26 countries, with eight deaths, Tedros said. That includes one confirmed case on the African continent, in Egypt, he said. He called the reported decline in new cases in China welcome news but said it had to be interpreted very cautiously, adding, “It is far too early to make predictions about this outbreak”. A WHO-led international team of experts, which has been on the ground in China for the past week, will travel to Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus outbreak, on Saturday. “Our biggest concern continues to be the potential for COVID-19 to spread in countries with weaker health systems,” Tedros said. The WHO is calling for $675 million to support countries, especially those which are most vulnerable, he said, adding it has identified 13 countries in Africa that are seen as a priority because of their links to China. It has shipped more than 30,000 sets of personal protective equipment to several African countries, and is ready to ship almost 60,000 more sets to 19 countries in coming weeks, Tedros said. The WHO has also appointed two specialists as special envoys to help African countries prepare for the potential arrival of the virus: the director of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, John Nkengasong, and the director general of the Center for Vaccine Development in Mali, Samba Sow.

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30-year Treasury bond yield breaks to all-time low as coronavirus fears lift havens

The 10-year Treasury note yield also broke below key level of 1.50% on Friday

https://youtu.be/BeazqLpY-2Q

 

U.S. Treasury yields extended their weeklong slump on Friday as investors worried that the economic impact of COVID-19 may not be contained to China, and is spilling over into neighboring regions. The 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, -2.90% fell 5.4 basis points to a more than five-month low of 1.470%, contributing to a weeklong decline of around 12 basis points. The 2-year note rate TMUBMUSD02Y, -2.95%   slipped 4.5 basis points to a three-week low of 1.348%, extending a 7.6 basis point drop this week. The 30-year bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, -2.32%   tumbled 5.4 basis points to 1.917%, sliding below its previous all-time low of 1.95%. The long bond’s yield fell 12.6 basis point this week. Global equity benchmarks and U.S. stocks tumbled Friday as the growing number of cases of the coronavirus outside China, especially in South Korea, raised fears that the damage to supply chains could hit several major Asian economies which are linchpins for industries like semiconductors and automobiles. The S&P 500 SPX, -1.05%   and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.78%   are set to book a more than 1% loss this week. Investors also said it’s unclear when workers will be able to return to factory floors. Some forecasters suggest car manufacturing and other industries may not return to usual production activity until March. The bearish investor sentiment in risk assets helped boost demand for haven bonds, which have seen sharp inflows all week. Long-term Treasury yields are on the verge or have already broken through key levels that investors say could presage further yield declines.

Worries about a Chinese and Asian economic slowdown spilling over into the U.S. have also lifted traders’ expectations for interest rate cuts later in the year, despite speeches by senior Federal Reserve officials including Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida suggesting no further easing was imminent.

Investors saw a flurry of speeches from Fed officials on Friday. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said they expected the coronavirus to be a temporary shock. Disappointing economic data also added to the yield decline. The IHS Markit purchasing manager survey’s composite index for the U.S. dropped to 49.6 in February, a more than six-year low. Any number below 50 represents a contraction in economic activity. While, existing home sales ran at annualized pace of 5.46 million, a drop of 1.3% in January. “Fitful spurts of Corona virus anxieties made for erratic trading in risk markets, but the bid for treasuries remained firm, especially out the curve where the long bond set a record low yield,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist for Jefferies, in a note. Nick Note:  To be clear here. The supply chain damage has already done. The coronavirus is spreading out of China and 50% of China’s workforce is under quarantine.  We are not seeing the factories switching back on. TO  be clear here we are in a unique situation and for a fact the Algo’s guys are not knowing how to price in the greatest disruption to manufacturing since Word War II in Europe. The Einsteins on Wall Street are making what i regard as a colossal and historic mistake.  The factories to the world  have not been in production for over a month. AND they are at best operating at 50% of their capacity I am of the opinion this is not over by a long shot…….

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China reports fall in new coronavirus cases but concerns grow over spread elsewhere

 

 

BEIJING (Reuters) – China reported a sharp decrease in the number of new deaths and new cases of the coronavirus on Saturday, while its central bank predicted a limited short-term economic impact and said the country was confident of winning the fight against the epidemic.  Mainland China had 397 new confirmed cases of coronavirus infections on Friday, down from 889 a day earlier, with the vast majority of those in the epicenter of Hubei province, the National Health Commission said. The 31 new infections recorded in the rest of the country was the lowest since the commission started compiling nationwide data on Jan. 20, and sharply down from 258 new cases the previous day.

But the numbers continued to rise elsewhere, with outbreaks worsening in South Korea, Italy and Iran and Lebanon, prompting a warning from the World Health Organization that the window of opportunity to contain the international spread was closing..

South Korea saw another spike in infections with 142 confirmed cases, taking its tally to 346, about half related to people who attended a church service. Concerns about the virus weighed on U.S. stocks on Friday, driven by an earlier spike in cases in China and data showing stalling U.S. business activity in February. The virus has spread to some 26 countries and territories outside mainland China, killing 11 people, according to a Reuters tally, and among the WHO’s biggest concerns was cases without links to China. “We still have a chance to contain it,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general, said on Friday. “If we don’t, if we squander the opportunity, then there will be a serious problem on our hands.” An outbreak in northern Italy worsened with its first death, an elderly man, among 17 confirmed cases including its first known instance of local transmission. Japan confirmed four new coronavirus cases on Saturday, among those a teacher who had shown symptoms while working at her school. Japan is facing growing questions about whether it is doing enough to contain its spread, and unease about whether it could scupper this year’s Tokyo Olympics. Organizers of the games on Saturday postponed the start of training for volunteers. The total number of confirmed cases in mainland China rose to 76,288, with the death toll at 2,345 as of the end of Friday. Hubei reported 106 new deaths of which 90 in Wuhan.

But new, albeit isolated findings about symptoms of the coronavirus could complicate efforts to thwart it, including the Hubei government’s announcement on Saturday that an elderly man took 27 days to show symptoms after infection, almost twice the presumed 14-day incubation period.

That follows Chinese scientists reporting that a woman from Wuhan had traveled 400 miles (675 km) and infected five relatives without showing signs of infection, offering new evidence of asymptomatical spreading. State television on Saturday showed the arrival in Wuhan of the “blue whale”, the first of seven river cruise ships it is bringing in to house medical workers, tens of thousands of which have been sent to Hubei to contain the virus. Senior Chinese central bank officials sought to ease global investors’ worries about the potential damage to the world’s second-largest economy from the outbreak, saying interest rates would be guided lower and that the country’s financial system and currency were resilient Chen Yulu, a deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, said policymakers had plenty of tools to support the economy, and that they were fully confident of winning the war against the epidemic. Some analysts believe China’s economy could contract in the first quarter from the previous three months due to the combined supply and demand shocks caused by the epidemic and strict government containment measures. On an annual basis, some warn growth could fall by as much as half from 6% in the fourth quarter. Most expect a rebound in the spring if the outbreak can be contained soon and factories can return to normal production. However, transport restrictions remain in many areas and while more firms are reopening, the limited data available suggests manufacturing is still running at low levels and disruptions are starting to spillover into global supply chains. Finance leaders from the Group of 20 major economies were set to discuss risks to the world economy in Saudi Arabia this weekend. Another center of infection has been the Diamond Princess cruise ship quarantined in Japan since Feb. 3, with more than 630 cases accounting for the biggest cluster outside China. Four more Australian evacuated from the ship tested positive, in addition to two previously identified. A second plane with 82 Hong Kong residents returned home on Saturday and 35 British passengers were due to arrive home. U.S. health officials said they were preparing for the possibility of the spread of the coronavirus through communities and would force closures of schools and businesses.

The United States has 13 cases within the country and 21 among Americans repatriated on evacuation flights from Wuhan and the Diamond Princess.

Nick Note: As you are seeing the disease is spreading and we now have a confirmed case of a infected patient that was passing the virus for over 3 weeks with no symptions… Conclusion the commies of China are rushing the slaves back to work in their factories… I predict things will go quieter in china for the next few weeks then Bam Slam another flareup.

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Goldman Sachs says investors’ cavalier attitude towards coronavirus is setting the market up for a correction

  • Markets have shrugged off coronavirus fear on earnings optimism, and Goldman Sachs is warning against what they view as complacency.
  • It’s looking increasingly likely that the market will correct in the near term, according to Peter Oppenheimer, the firm’s chief global equity strategist.

Optimism around corporate earnings has powered equities to new highs and prompted traders to set aside fears around coronavirus. But Goldman analyst Peter Oppenheimer thinks the market is overestimating the ability of companies to keep growing profits. He adds that softening economic growth prospects are also being overlooked. That creates a situation where future earnings misses are more likely, which would weigh on share prices as well. “Over the past couple of months the new highs in the market have been driven by lower bond yields and looser financial conditions despite weaker growth prospects,” Oppenheimer said. “This makes the market vulnerable to earnings disappointments.” He continued: “While a sustained bear market does not look likely, a near-term correction is looking much more probable.” But Oppenheimer says he understands where investors are coming from. He notes that market participants are likely being influenced by the market’s resilience in the face of the 2003 SARS epidemic. “Investors have largely taken the view that the impact will be temporary, hopefully short-lived, and that most of the weakness should be reversed with a strong rebound in the quarters that follow,” he said. Oppenheimer says that reaction – or the lack thereof – follows a “playbook” that investors have grown accustomed to from other market reactions to viral infections. But he points out that China is significantly more important to the global economy than it was when hit in 2003, he said. The matches research from Goldman last week suggesting that the economic cost of coronavirus could be castrophic in the near term.

“The impact of the coronavirus on earnings may well be underestimated in the current stock prices, suggesting that the risks of a correction are high,” Oppenheimer said.

The post-coronavirus profit shakeout is already well underway.Three high-profile names added themselves to that list of companies affected on Thursday alone: Airline Air France-KLM, iPhone-maker Foxconn, and AP Moller-Maersk, the world’s largest container shipping company. Further, Apple – the world’s most valuable company – warned Monday that the coronavirus hammered sales this quarter and will keep the company from hitting its second-quarter revenue target. Nick Note: Wall Street has got its head up its ass. One of the biggest stock market crashes is right around the corner. No it will n t be a Lehman Moment. But China Chop Suey… If you don’t make any money its your own damn fault

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Coronavirus update: 75,748 cases, 2,129 deaths, Norwegian Cruise and Ecolab expect hit to EPS

Procter & Gamble Co. warns investors that the COVID-19 outbreak will materially impact earnings for the January to March quarter. China is the company’s second largest market. The number of new COVID-19 cases appeared to taper off on Thursday morning; however, that may be due to another change in how China’s Hubei Province is counting cases. COVID-19 is a type of coronavirus similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) that was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December. Last week, Hubei began including in its case tally the people who have been diagnosed by computed tomography (CT) scans in addition to laboratory tests. Doing so sharply increased the number of cases being reported by Hubei, the province that is home to Wuhan, and led to criticism. Going forward, Hubei only plans to count cases confirmed by lab tests, CBS News reported. There are 75,748 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and at least 2,129 deaths, primarily in mainland China, according to the latest figures from the World Health Organization (WHO). The number of newly confirmed cases worldwide (463 cases) is significantly smaller than the increase reported on Wednesday (1,871 cases). Outside of China, the outbreak has spread to 26 other countries, leading to 1,076 cases and seven deaths, including two recently reported deaths in Iran, WHO officials said Thursday. While health officials still say that the most severe cases and the largest number of cases are in China, they are also paying close attention to the 621 confirmed cases from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which is docked at a port in Yokohama, Japan. At least two of those passengers, both in their 80s with underlying health conditions, have died, according to comments made by WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus during a call with reporters on Thursday. The number of cases in South Korea has also increased by 22 overnight, now at a total of 104 cases. About 15 who attended a church service in Daegu have been diagnosed with the virus,

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API Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending February 14, 2020

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 400 thousand barrels from the previous week. At 442.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of the year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.2 million barrels per day during the week ending February 14, 2020, which was 190,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 89.4% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.5 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day last week, down by 431,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.7 million barrels per day, 4.1% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 421,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuelimports averaged 127,000 barrels per day.  Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.0 million barrels last week and are about 3% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
decreased by 0.6 million barrels last week and are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 3.0 million barrels last week and are about 35% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 1.0 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.3 million barrels per day, down by 1.8% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels per day, down by 2.0% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels per
day over the past four weeks, down by 6.7% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was down 0.4% compared with the same four
-week period last year.
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Haftar’s Forces Attack Libya Sea Port, Almost Blow Up LPG Tanker

https://youtu.be/Qk0etbR3Eb4

Offloading operations for fuel vessels in a port in Tripoli have been halted, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced on Tuesday, according to Reuters, as military forces led by Khalifa Haftar were responsible for projectiles striking near a highly explosive LPG tanker. “Fuel vessels have evacuated urgently from Tripoli port today after projectiles struck meters away from a liquified petroleum gas (LPG) tanker discharging in the port,” a statement on NOC’s website read. The LPG tanker and a gasoline tanker have since left the port and relocated to safer waters. NOC is now looking for alternative ways to supply fuel to its capital.

Haftar forces said earlier in the day that they attacked a sea port in Tripoli as the violence escalates and the timing of getting its oil industry back on its feet in doubt. The total losses so far resulting from the mess that is the current blockade of oil ports and oil pipelines is in excess of US$1.7 billion, with production below 125,000 bpd, according to NOC—a figure that is a far cry from the 1.2 million bpd Libya was producing in early January.

The blockade is the latest in the long-hard fight for control of the country and its oil revenues between the Libyan National Army, affiliated with the eastern government, and the Government of National Accord, which has been recognized by the UN. All oil revenues go into accounts controlled by the GNA and NOC, but the LNA is looking to change that with the blockade. Yesterday, the Prime Minister of the UN-recognized Government of National Accord said that Libya is facing a financial disaster if Haftar’s Libyan National Army does not lift the oil port blockade. NOC’s chairman Mustafa Sanalla warned that if the blockade is not soon lifted, Libya could lose all of its oil production. Nick Note: See when oil was going lower and lower and lower because China was not buying. Cutting up to a million barrels in purchases. So we bought as the oil as experts at Glencore warned of a severe glut. Well Ivan i told you you were a asshole. Glencore lost billions last year. And as we published over and over again the market already had a cut in production equal to and more then the China slow down due to the war  in Libya……… Well that’s now in the news so its time  to take profits. when we talk later today ill let you in on anther little secret…..

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Adidas, Puma warn of coronavirus hit to China business

Berlin Germany (Reuters) – German sportswear makers Adidas (ADSGn.DE) and Puma (PUMG.DE) both said on Wednesday that the coronavirus outbreak was hurting their business in China due to store closures and fewer Chinese tourists traveling and shopping in other markets. Adidas and Puma make almost a third of their sales in Asia, which has been the major growth market for the sporting goods industry in recent years. The region is also a key sourcing hub, with many sneakers produced in China and other Asian countries. Adidas said in a statement that its business in the Greater China area had dropped by about 85% year-on-year in the period since Chinese New Year on January 25. Adidas said it had also seen lower shopper traffic, mainly in Japan and South Korea, but added that it had not yet registered any major business impact beyond Greater China.

“The magnitude of the overall impact on our business for the full-year 2020 cannot be quantified reliably at this point in time,” it said, adding it would give more details when it publishes 2019 results on March 11.

Adidas sells its products from about 12,000 stores in China, most of them franchises plus less than 500 own-operated stores. Puma said it expected the virus outbreak to hit its sales and profits in the first quarter but it still hopes to reach its targets for 2020. Puma said more than half of its stores in China were temporarily closed and the decline of the Chinese tourism business was also hurting other markets, especially in Asia. It said the uncertainty about the duration of the virus made it difficult to forecast but it is working under the assumption that the situation will normalize in the short-term. In the fourth quarter, Puma reported its strongest sales growth in the Asia/Pacific region of a currency-adjusted 23%. Nick Note: See the game? the sold out pompous pricks on Wall Street told you how China with the emerging middle class of a billion people was the future. Form smart phone companies to Starbucks sugar water flavored coffee the plastic show makers to apple, Intel, Navidia to name a few all otld how China was the future. Even fast food shops Like KFC (Yum Brands) McDonald’s and the rest of heart attack food provayers  ALL based their ENTIRE future on China. In the retail category stores Like Gucchi,  Tiffanies, Wallmart  carrefour, Tesco,  Amazon your internet China supply to your door  store, WallMart your China retail shop on every corner and even grocery chains went ape shit crazy to get to China to make things, Sell things and supply things. Do not forget car companies like Gm, Ford, Tesla, Toyota to name a few the world over rely on China for their just in time single source critical parts suppliers. Now these S&P500 companies are defining in their silence refusing to report the impact of the FACT that half of China’s workforce are still under quarantine……. Well i am here ready to charge them a great big lieing asshole tax…….. AGAIN!!!!

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Oil gains as OPEC+ skips potential meeting plans

https://youtu.be/yXObdrvJ-LI?t=25

Prices of oil increased on Wednesday to reach its highest level since January 31 as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Nations (OPEC) and allied countries led by Russia known as OPEC+ decided to drop plans on meeting in February to discuss further output cuts. The cartel is set to hold a meeting in March with analysts expecting it to cut global oil production to 2.3 million barrels a day. Meanwhile, the United States imposed sanctions on the largest Russian oil company Rosneft over its role in the affairs of Venezuela. West Texas Intermediate for March delivery added 0.67% at 4:04 am to go for $52.45 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent for April settlement grew 0.92% to trade for $58.21 per barrel at 4:05 am ET. Nick Note: You hired a expert…ME. And i really really really have PROVEN I know what i am doing. ON OIL…. what they are telling you is bullshit… FUCK CHINA! they are buying the shit out of cheap oil. What those teleprompter analysis and the oil market manipulator firms that gave you  my best trade of loast year on the Christmas eve (lizard brain) massacre is the FACT that ALL Libya (Africa biggest oil producer) is out of production. And oil traders are desperate as the market is running short… Yes you read that right SHORT!!!!  Libyan crude is the sweetest in the world and in the most demand of any oil in the galaxy…….  AND ALL THEIR OIL FIELDS ARE SHUT DOWN……… and And AND despite the BULLSHIT are not about to reopen anytime soon. Its known as the last bargaining chip as the worlds nation like Russia, China, Iran and NATO member Turkey all have a dog in the hunt! Amazing what they forget to tell you!

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Asia stocks rise on lull in virus worry, euro still weak

 

TOKYO (Reuters) – Asian shares and U.S. stock futures rose on Wednesday, as investors tried to shake off worries about the coronavirus epidemic after a slight decline in the number of new cases. Chinese shares erased early declines to trade 0.6% higher. Australian shares were up 0.37%, while Japan’s Nikkei stock index rose 0.95%. Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.65%, German DAX futures gained 0.67%, while FTSE futures were up 0.74%. The euro languished at a three-year low versus the dollar as disappointing data from Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has stoked fears that the euro zone is more vulnerable to external shocks than previously thought.

The Treasury curve remained inverted on Wednesday as yields on three-month bills traded above yields on 10-year notes in a sign that some investors remain cautious about the outlook.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, is still struggling to get its manufacturing sector back online after imposing severe travel restrictions to contain a virus that emerged in the central province of Hubei late last year. Many investors view Chinese data on the virus, dubbed SARS-CoV-2, with a great deal of scepticism, but there are hopes that officials will roll out more stimulus to support the economy. “Part of the thinking that is supporting markets is the actions that China takes to support its economy,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney. “Any investor concern around impact on demand globally from the virus will be offset by expectations that global central banks will ride to the rescue.” U.S. stock futures rose 0.3% in Asia on Wednesday. The S&P 500 fell 0.29% on Tuesday after Apple Inc said it would miss sales targets because the virus in China is pressuring its supply chain. Mainland China had 1,749 new confirmed cases of coronavirus infections on Tuesday, the country’s National Health Commission said on Wednesday, down from 1,886 cases a day earlier and the lowest since Jan. 29. The death toll in China has topped more than 2,000 from the flu-like illness which has already spread to 24 other countries. The People’s Bank of China cut the interest rate on its medium-term lending on Monday, which is expected to pave the way for a reduction in the benchmark loan prime rate on Thursday, as policymakers try to ease financial strains caused by the virus. In the currency market, the euro was quoted at $1.0798, close to its lowest since April 2017. Sentiment remained weak after a survey on Tuesday showed a sharp deterioration in German investor sentiment due to the coronavirus. In the onshore market, the yuan briefly fell to a two-week low of 7.0136 per dollar as traders continued to ponder the economic impact of the virus and the chance for more monetary easing. The yield on three-month Treasury bills stood at 1.5949% in Asia on Wednesday, above the 10-year Treasury yield of 1.5661%. A yield curve inverts when short-term yields trade above long-term yields and is often considered a sign of recession in the next year or two. U.S. crude and Brent both rose more than 1% to $52.63 a barrel and $58.39 per barrel, respectively, as a reduction in supply from Libya offset concerns about weaker Chinese demand for commodities.

Expectations are that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers including Russia will cut output further should lend support to prices. OPEC+, will meet in Vienna on March 6.

Nick Note: Remember me…… I got you out of the pound with profits….. i got you out of gold at the most recent bottom. And had you buy oil on the bottom and we are about to take profits…. again. And we are selling the S&P500 at the top and buying the FNGD on the lowest price ever. ITS called the teetotaler! AND add to that shorting the 30 year bond at the lowest yield since the great depression….. And this is how you make money the Nick way… For the record every closed trade for the past year as in ALL has been profitable… if you did not LIZARD out! I am doing my job now go and do yours.