Author: BlackMask Financial

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Oil slumps, on track for more than 7% weekly decline, as China virus fears shadow market

West Texas Intermediate oil for March is on track for its fourth straight decline

Oil futures fell sharply Friday on fears the spread of the coronavirus in China elsewhere will undercut demand for crude which has seen prices already under pressure due to worries about a potential oversupply. On Friday, China’s National Health Commission confirmed more than 800 cases of the coronavirus, an illness akin to severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS. So far, the death toll has risen to 26 from 17, according to the commission and state media. In the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed a second case of coronavirus. Cases have also been reported in other countries, though the World Health Organization on Thursday said it was too early to declare a global health emergency. “In the last few days the oil price has suffered, with four consecutive trading sessions in the red as investors are seeing growing chances – again – of oversupply for the next few months, particularly with US inventories rising earlier this week,” wrote Carlo Alberto De Casa, chief analyst, ActivTrades, in a Friday note. West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery CLH20, -2.37%  was down $1.34, or 2.4%, at $54.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after falling 2% on Thursday, marking its lowest finish since Nov. 29 for a front-month contract, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The U.S. benchmark is on track for a weekly fall of more than 7%. China has restricted travel in and out of Wuhan, where the first cases of the coronavirus outbreak appeared last month, but a number of other cities also have limited travel. The World Health Organization stopped short of declaring an international health emergency due to the coronaviruses spread but did describe the outbreak as a China emergency at gathering on Thursday.

“Moreover, there is some anxiety for the possible impact from Chinese flu, even if at this stage we cannot understand how this fear is justified and how it will impact on oil demand,” De Casa said.

Oversupply concerns, despite a disruption to Libyan oil production, have been additional worries for the investors of the commodity. “The key, of course, for oil is to determine how quickly the quarantines will be lifted and whether this virus is really under control or does it continues to spread,” wrote Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group. Nick Note: I can not help myself i just gotta buy the shit out of this silkiness

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New China virus: Five questions scientists are asking

Researchers are racing to find out more about the epidemiology and genetic sequence of the coronavirus spreading in Asia and beyond.

Health authorities around the world are worried about an outbreak of a mysterious virus that originated in Wuhan, China, last month. Officials there have confirmed more than 500 cases of the infection, which causes a respiratory illness, and 17 deaths. Several cases have been spotted elsewhere in Asia and one in the United States.

Researchers are racing to learn more about the virus and to discover whether it has the potential to cause an outbreak similar to the 2002–03 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which emerged in southern China and killed 774 people in 37 countries. Both are members of a large virus family, called coronaviruses, that also includes those responsible for the common cold. Efforts to understand the outbreak are especially crucial, because mass travel from Friday for the Chinese New Year holiday could spread the virus farther and faster.How does the virus spread? The most urgent question surrounding the outbreak is determining how it spreads. Chinese authorities have confirmed that some cases have been caused by transmission between humans, but it’s still unclear whether this can happen routinely. “What’s critical to understand is whether that’s occurring at a rate and with a level of efficiency which would sustain a human epidemic,” says Neil Ferguson, a mathematical epidemiologist at Imperial College London. Monitoring the rate at which new cases appear, and when symptoms began for each case, should tell scientists how easily the virus can pass between humans and whether the outbreak has the potential to persist. High rates of pneumonia among the first people infected had many researchers worried that the Wuhan virus was especially pernicious. Those concerns have receded slightly, as more mild cases turn up. With at least 17 deaths in more than 500 cases, the virus does not seem to be as deadly as SARS — which killed an estimated 11% of the people it infected. But “It’s too early to be sanguine about the severity,” Ferguson says. Authorities are working on the theory that the virus originated in an unidentified animal or animals, and then spread to humans at a large animal and seafood market in Wuhan. Identifying the animal source of the virus could help to control the current outbreak and gauge its threat — and potentially prevent future epidemics, say researchers. Genetic sequencing suggests that the Wuhan virus is related to coronaviruses that circulate in bats, including SARS and its close relatives. But other mammals can transmit these viruses — SARS was probably spread to humans by civet cats. The live-seafood market where the outbreak seems to have originated — now closed — also sells wild animals. Tracing other cases to the market could help to identify the source, as could tests of animals from the market, or containers and cages, for viral genetic material, says Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong. Genetic sequencing of the Wuhan coronavirus offers clues to its origins and spread. Laboratories in China and Thailand have sequenced the genomes of at least 19 strains found in infected people and have made them publicly available. That’s “pretty remarkable, given that we’re two weeks after work has begun,” says Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary geneticist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, Washington, who is analysing the sequences as they come in. “People are extremely fast and excellent about data sharing,” Bedford adds. Bedford says that the most striking thing about the sequences is how similar they are to one another. “There’s very little diversity. I expected to see more and I think other people did as well.” The lack of genetic diversity suggests that the common ancestor of the different human strains emerged in November or December and has spread rapidly, and hasn’t gained many mutations. Those it has gained tend to be distinct for each virus sequence. However, Bedford adds, the genomes don’t yet indicate whether the rapid expansion of the virus occurred in humans or in an animal reservoir. Evolutionary geneticist Andrew Rambaut at the University of Edinburgh, UK, posted an analysis on 20 January that came to a similar conclusion. Bedford says that, with further virus sequences, it might be possible to find out whether most cases are caused by repeated spillover of the virus from animals into humans, with limited human-to-human transmission, or whether the virus spread to a small number of humans and most cases are now being caused by secondary human-to-human transmission. “I think that would be the big epidemiological goal for everyone at the moment,” he says. Genetic information from the animal or animals that transmitted the virus to humans would also be helpful in identifying the extent of human-to-human transmission, Bedford adds.

Such sequences, he says, could also identify any genetic changes that might have helped the virus make the jump from animals to humans. And if the outbreak drags on because of extensive human-to-human transmission, Bedford and other geneticists will be looking for signs that the virus has gained further mutations enabling it to spread more efficiently in humans. Bedford cautions that these conclusions are preliminary, because so few data are available. “Adding a few key samples can change the story significantly,” he says. No drugs have been shown to be effective in treating SARS or other coronavirus infections in humans, and no vaccines aimed at preventing these infections have been licensed. A team at China’s National Engineering Research Center for the Emergence Drugs in Beijing is working on finding therapies that would work by blocking the receptor on human cells that the virus latches on to and uses to infect. A comparison of the SARS and new China virus sequences, published on 16 January, found that they bind to the same receptor. The team is hoping to revive efforts to develop treatments for SARS and adapt them in a bid to make a drug could work against the latest virus.

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WHO says not declaring virus a global emergency but taking it seriously

GENEVA (Reuters) – The World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Thursday that the new coronavirus that has emerged in China and spread to several other countries does not yet constitute an international emergency but it was tracking its evolution “every minute”. WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus made the announcement after its Emergency Committee of 16 independent experts reviewed the latest evidence and made its recommendations, which he accepted. “Make no mistake, though, this is an emergency in China,” Tedros told a news conference at WHO headquarters in Geneva. “But it has not yet become a global health emergency. It may yet become one.” China put millions of people on lockdown on Thursday in two cities at the epicentre of a coronavirus outbreak that has killed 18 people and infected more than 630, as authorities around the world worked to prevent a global pandemic. Nick Note: The height of incompetency. The virus is spreading like wild fire. Of course they should declare a health emergency. At a time that diseases travel at damn near the speed of sound in those 747 disease incubators ALL ALL airports should screen ALL passengers and people from patient zero land in China sholud face at least 48 hour quarantine when they arrive anywhere in the world…..

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Inside Wuhan’s quarantine zone amid coronavirus outbreak

Soldiers wearing face masks screened people Thursday for the coronavirus in Wuhan, China — where doctors wore hazmat suits to treat patients sickened by the mystery illness, photos from inside the city show.  Wuhan government officials called the situation a “state of war” after a public transportation ban and other safety measures were issued in the central Chinese city where the disease emerged, according to NPR.

Enlarge ImageA militia member checks the body temperature of a driver on a vehicle at an expressway toll gate in Wuhan.
A militia member checks the body temperature of a driver of a vehicle at an expressway toll gate in Wuhan.EPA

“Strictly implement emergency response requirements, enter into a state of war and implement wartime measures to resolutely curb the spread of this epidemic,” officials warned, according to the report. The officials further urged residents to remain in their homes, saying, “Homes must be segregated, neighbors must be watched.”

Wuhan issued a travel ban Wednesday that suspended all public transportation in an effort to contain the spread of the virus, which has sickened more than 600 people and killed 17. The mandate banned travel out of the central Chinese city on trains, long-haul buses and flights. Soldiers were photographed wearing face masks as they barricaded the entrances to the city’s train stations Thursday morning to prevent travel out of Wuhan.Cars were still allowed to leave Wuhan on Thursday, but officials began to close down major highways, NPR reported. Officials said they were screening anyone leaving or entering the city for symptoms such as fever. The city is home to 11 million residents, who received less than eight hours’ notice of the quarantine, according to the report.

The deadly virus can spread from person to person, but the exact nature of that transmission is not known, officials said.

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Infected people seen ‘dead in streets’ in quarantined Chinese virus city

EXCLUSIVE: Disturbing images on Instagram from inside Wuhan show residents dropping to the floor following a lockdown of the city by Chinese authorities. Disturbing images of Wuhan residents dropping unresponsive to the floor have emerged on Instagram following the diseased Chinese city’s coronavirus lockdown.

MAY BE FAKE NEWS WARNING!

Wuhan has been branded a “zombieland” by frantic locals after Chinese authorities told residents they are not allowed to leave yesterday morning. It appears as though the man was waiting in line for paperwork when he collapsed while wearing a disposable face mark for protection. As the scene unfolds, a medic dressed in all white approaches the man and bends down to offer assistance.

The situation was witnessed by a line of six people but the incident does not seem isolated as other residents have posted images of the same scenario. Pictures from inside the city paint an apocalyptic picture as medics patrol in hazmat suits and gas masks. In an upload direct from Wuhan, a man can be seen lying unresponsive on the floor as concerned individuals look on. The situation was witnessed by a line of six people but the incident does not seem isolated as other residents have posted images of the same scenario. Nick Note: Take this story with a grain of salt. I am/was reluctant to post this story that is not collaborated. I decided to go ahead with is as it became apparent that something BIG is going on here. Two cities in China are quarantined….. unprecedented. One thing for sure something big is going on here. I will keep you posted!

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Barkindo: Too soon to discuss OPEC+ cuts until 2021

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said on Thursday that it is too early to discuss an extension to the crude output cut deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies until the end of 2020, Tass reported. Earlier this week, Barkindo denied reports that the next meeting of the cartel and allied producers will be delayed. In December, OPEC+ agreed to extend the output cut deal and lower oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2020. The current deal is set to expire at the end of March.

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EIA Weekly Report week ending January 17, 2020

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day during the week ending January 17, 2020, which was 116,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 90.5% of their operable capacity last week.
Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.5 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.0 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million barrels per day last week, down by 120,000
barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.5 million barrels per day, 15.8% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 563,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 320,000 barrels per day.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 428.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels last week and are about 4% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and
blending components inventories both increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
decreased by 1.2 million barrels last week and a
re about 2% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels last week and are about 27% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 1.9 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.0 million barrels per day, down by 1.6% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.6 million barrels per day, down by 1.4% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.5 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, down by 8.3% from the same period last year. Jet fuel
product supplied was up 3.8% compared with the same four -week period last year.
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Oil Falls Further On Rising Crude, Product Inventories

Oil tanks

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated on Wednesday a surprise crude oil inventory build of 1.57 million barrels for the week ending January 17, compared to analyst expectations of a 1.009-million-barrel draw in inventory. Last week saw a build in crude oil inventories of 1.1 million barrels, according to API data.  Oil prices were down earlier in the day prior to the afternoon data release, despite continued unrest in oil-rich Iraq and a near-complete oil production disruption in Libya, as fears of economic slowdown once again surface—this time not from the trade dispute between the United States and China, but due to a deadly SARS-like virus known as coronavirus in China that now shows a confirmed case in the United States. At 2:24 pm EST on Wednesday, the WTI benchmark was trading down $1.34 (-2.30%) at $57.04, roughly $1.30 per barrel under last week’s levels. The price of a Brent barrel was also trading down on Wednesday, by $1.11 (-1.72%), at $63.48—roughly $1.10 under last week’s prices. The API this week also reported another large build of 4.5 million barrels of gasoline for week ending January 17, after last week’s large 3.2-million-barrel build. This week’s large gasoline build compares to analyst expectations of a 3.090-million barrel-build for the week. Distillate, too, saw inventories increase, by 3.5 million barrels for the week, adding onto last week’s large 6.8-million-barrel build, while Cushing inventories fell by 429,000 barrels. US crude oil production as estimated by the Energy Information Administration showed that production for the week ending January 10 increased to 13.0 million bpd, a record high for the United States. Nick Note: Their is no surprise… Commig out of heating oil season inventories always rise.  This drop is overdone… It makes me want to go long….. For some spring time time fun

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Oil slides 2% as glut forecast, China virus overshadow Libya disruption

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil prices fell about 2% on Wednesday as a market surplus forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and demand worries amid the outbreak of a virus in China outweighed concern over disruptions to Libya’s crude output. Brent crude LCOc1 was down $1.24, or 1.9%, at $63.35 a barrel by 1:49 p.m. ET (1849 GMT). West Texas Intermediate CLc1 fell $1.40, or 2.4%, to $56.98. The head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, said he expects the market to be in surplus by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of this year. “Oil prices remain heavy on oversupply concerns and after the Saudi Energy Minister Price Abdulaziz did not offer any hints of optimism that the OPEC+ production cuts would be extended beyond March,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. “China’s coronavirus will likely see travel restrictions that could end up hurting demand for crude during a peak travel time in China.” Markets are also focusing on the emergence from China of a new coronavirus just ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays this weekend and the possible impact a pandemic might have on global economic growth. MKTS/GLOB] Deaths from the new flu-like virus in China rose to 17 with more than 540 cases confirmed, with cases now detected as far away as the United States. [Should the virus develop dramatically and hit travel and growth, demand for oil could fall by 260,000 bpd, Goldman Sachs said in a note. “Demand concerns over a potential epidemic will counter concerns around supply disruptions in Libya, Iran and Iraq, driving spot price volatility in coming weeks,” Goldman said, though the “impact on oil fundamentals remains limited so far”. Oil prices have been marginally supported after Libya’s National Oil Corp on Monday declared force majeure on the loading of oil from two major oilfields after the latest development in a long-running military conflict. Unless oil facilities return to operation quickly, OPEC member Libya’s crude output will be reduced to about 72,000 bpd from about 1.2 million bpd. “The Libyan pipeline blockade continued to have a muted impact on sentiment … There is a consensus that the disruption will prove short-lived,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has suspended its oil exports to China after contamination was found in crude supplied by a Kazakh producer less than a year after a ‘dirty oil’ crisis broke in neighboring Russia. Overall though, global supplies are likely to continue to rise, with U.S. crude production in large shale deposits expected to rise to record highs in February, though the pace of increase is likely to be the lowest in about year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday. U.S. crude inventories were likely to have fallen last week, a Reuters poll showed, but gasoline stocks are expected to have risen for an 11th week in a row. [EIA/S] Weekly U.S. energy reports have been delayed a day in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday on Monday. The American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to release its report at 4:30 p.m. on Wednesday, followed by official data at 11 a.m. on Thursday.

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Pandemic fears grow as China virus toll rises to nine

* Infections in China hit 440, with nine dead

* WHO says more cases expected

* China to restrict gatherings in Hubei

* Officials urged not to conceal information

* Travel warnings, North Korea bans foreign tourists

* Olympic boxing qualifying bouts cancelled in Wuhan

BEIJING/SHANGHAI, Jan 22 (Reuters) – Authorities in China and beyond stepped up efforts to control an outbreak of a new flu-like coronavirus on Wednesday as the death toll rose to nine with 440 confirmed cases, while suspicion grew that the virus crossed to humans from animals. China discouraged public gatherings in Hubei province, where the virus emerged last month, and tightened containment measures in hospitals, while the World Health Organization (WHO) was due to hold an emergency meeting to determine whether the outbreak constituted a global health emergency. The virus has spread from the central Chinese city of Wuhan, in Hubei, to Beijing, Shanghai, Macau, Hong Kong, and beyond to the United States, Thailand, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. The Chinese government has provided updates on the number of cases in a bid to head off panic, as hundreds of millions of people prepare to travel at home and abroad for Lunar New Year celebrations starting this week. “The rise in the mobility of the public has objectively increased the risk of the epidemic spreading and the difficulty of prevention and control,” National Health Commission vice-minister Li Bin told reporters. There was evidence that the virus was being spread through “respiratory transmission”, Li said. And, the director-general of China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Gao Fu, said virus was adapting and mutating, underscoring the challenges for health authorities. Some 2,197 people who came into contact with infected people were being kept in isolation, while 765 have been released from observation.”There has been a big change in the number of cases, which is related to our deepening understanding of the disease, improving diagnostic methods and optimising the distribution of diagnostic kits,” Li said.Symptoms of the virus, which can cause pneumonia, include fever, coughing and difficulty breathing. There is no vaccine for the virus, which can be passed from person to person. Fifteen medical personnel are among those infected in China. Fears of a pandemic similar to an outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) that started in China and killed nearly 800 people in 2002-2003 have roiled global markets, with aviation and luxury goods stocks hit particularly hard and the Chinese yuan tumbling. Companies across China, from Foxconn to Huawei Technologies and HSBC Holdings, were warning staff to avoid Wuhan and handing out masks. Terry Gou, the billionaire founder of Apple supplier Foxconn, said he was advising company employees not to visit China over the holiday. WHO spokesman Tarik Jasarevic said new cases of the coronavirus would appear as China stepped up monitoring. Li said there was no evidence of “super-spreaders” capable of disseminating the virus more widely, as happened during the SARS outbreak. Health authorities are still trying to determine the origin of the virus, which officials say came from a market in Wuhan where wildlife was traded illegally. SARS was believed to have crossed to humans from civet cats sold for food in China. The WHO says an animal source appears most likely to be the primary source of this outbreak. Taiwan on Tuesday confirmed its first case of the coronavirus, a woman returning from Wuhan. The island’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, called on China to share “correct” information about the virus and for the WHO not to exclude Taiwan from collaboration on the outbreak for political reasons. Taiwan is not a member of the WHO due to the objection of China, which considers the island a Chinese province with no right to participate in international organisations unless it accepts it is part of China. Like Australia, Taiwan warned citizens to avoid Wuhan, while banning tour groups from the city. Airports around the world have stepped up screening of travellers from China. The Chinese-ruled gambling hub of Macau confirmed its first case of pneumonia linked to the coronavirus and tightened body-temperature screening measures in casinos and around the city. A first case of the virus emerged in nearby Hong Kong on Wednesday, media reported. The patient arrived in Hong Kong via high-speed railway from the mainland and had been quarantined, media said. The city’s commerce secretary, Edward Yau, said earlier authorities were on high alert. “The whole world is watching,” Yau told Reuters at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos. Several foreign tour operators said North Korea banned foreign tourists from Wednesday due to the virus, losing one of its main sources of foreign currency. Some qualifying boxing matches for the 2020 Olympics set to take place in Wuhan in February had been cancelled, Japan’s Kyodo news agency said.

Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd said it would allow flight attendants to wear surgical masks while on mainland China flights. Cathay said rebooking, rerouting and refund charges would be waived for all tickets to or from Wuhan through Feb. 15. China’s aviation regulator has told mainland carriers to refund or change flights to Wuhan without charge.