OPEC lowers forecasts for global oil demand as the coronavirus hits fuel use in China, leaving the group facing a renewed glut despite its recent production cuts. The cartel reduced projections for demand growth in the first quarter by 440,000 barrels a day, or about a third, in its monthly report. Oil prices sank to a one-year low on Monday as the infection leaves businesses idle and millions quarantined in the world’s biggest crude importer. Oil’s slump has spurred the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ biggest exporter, Saudi Arabia, to press fellow members and allies to hold an emergency meeting and consider new output cutbacks. Yet the proposal has so far met resistance from Russia, the group’s most important ally, which is able to weather lower prices more easily. The report showed that, even though many OPEC members made a strong start with fresh output curbs that took effect last month, the virus’ impact on consumption will leave them with a new overhang. The group collectively pumped 28.86 million barrels a day in January, and if it maintains that rate there will be a surplus of 570,000 barrels a day during the second quarter, when consumption slows down seasonally. The monthly report is compiled by OPEC’s Vienna-based research department. OPEC doesn’t see the effects of the disease confined to the start of the year, bringing down its growth estimate for global oil demand in 2020 as a whole by about 230,000 barrels a day to just under 1 million a day. Still, the increase remains slightly higher than last year’s. Though crude futures have recovered on speculation the spread of the disease could be nearing its peak, prices of about $55 a barrel in London remain well below the levels most OPEC members need to cover government spending. Since the producer group formed an alliance with non-members such as Russia three years ago, the coalition has restrained supplies to offset a surge of production from the U.S. shale industry, and keep prices supported. They embarked on a new round of cutbacks in January. Last week, a committee of technical experts from the alliance, known as OPEC+, recommended reducing output by a further 600,000 barrels a day to offset the impact of the coronavirus. Russia, however, says it’s “studying” the proposal and its energy minister, Alexander Novak, is consulting with oil companies today. OPEC’s latest outlook may encourage them to give greater consideration to taking additional measures. “Clearly, the ongoing developments in China require continuous monitoring and assessment to gauge the implications,” the report said.
EIA Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending February 7, 2020
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 442.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time
of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.0 million barrels per day during the week ending February 7, 2020, which was 48,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 88.0% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.8 million barrels per day.U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.0 million barrels per day last week, up by 363,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.7 million barrels per day, 6.8% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 406,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 102,000 barrels per day.Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels last week and are about 3% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.0 million barrels last week and are about 5%
below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 6.2 million barrels last week and are about 32% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 1.0million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.7 million barrels per day, down by 0.3% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels per day, down by 2.9% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.1 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, down by 5.3% from the same period last year. Jet fuel
product supplied was up 0.7% compared with the same four-week period last year.
OPEC says coronavirus to trim 2020 oil demand as it weighs deeper cut
LONDON (Reuters) – OPEC on Wednesday cut its forecast for global growth in oil demand this year due to the coronavirus outbreak and said its output fell sharply in January as producers implemented a new supply-limiting pact. In a monthly report, OPEC said 2020 demand for its crude will average 29.30 million barrels per day (bpd), 200,000 bpd less than previously thought. OPEC pumped less oil in January than the average 2020 requirement, due to planned cuts and involuntary losses. The report could bolster the case for even more supply curbs by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which is considering whether to curb output further to offset slower demand. “The impact of the coronavirus outbreak on China’s economy has added to the uncertainties surrounding global economic growth in 2020, and by extension global oil demand growth,” OPEC said in the report.
“Clearly, the ongoing developments in China require continuous monitoring and assessment.”
In the report, OPEC said world oil demand was expected to rise by 990,000 bpd this year, a cut of 230,000 bpd from its previous forecast, following downward revisions by other forecasters such as the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration. OPEC, Russia and other producers, a group known as OPEC+, have since Jan. 1 implemented a deal to cut output by 1.7 million bpd to support the market. A technical panel that advises OPEC+ proposed last week a new cut of around 600,000 bpd. The producers are also considering moving their next policy meeting ahead to February from March 5-6, although they have yet to make a decision. In January, OPEC over-delivered on its cuts, lowering supply by 509,000 bpd to 28.86 million bpd according to secondary sources cited in the report, due to involuntary losses in Libya as well as deliberate cuts. Nick Note: Is OPEC+ going to cut oil production? Well let me ask you a questions. Do VFR helicopters with no instrument flying in thick fog when IFR equipped birds are grounded crash?
Coronavirus outbreak ‘just beginning’ outside China, says expert
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The coronavirus epidemic may be peaking in China where it was first detected in the central city of Wuhan but it is just beginning in the rest of the world and likely to spread, a global expert on infectious diseases said on Wednesday. The Chinese government’s senior medical adviser has said the disease is hitting a peak in China and may be over by April. He said he was basing the forecast on mathematical modelling, recent events and government action. Dale Fisher, chair of the Global Outbreak Alert & Response Network that is coordinated by the World Health Organization, said that predicted “time course” may well be true if the virus is allowed to run free in Wuhan. “It’s fair to say that’s really what we are seeing,” he told Reuters in an interview. “But it has spread to other places where it’s the beginning of the outbreak. In Singapore, we are at the beginning of the outbreak.” The flu-like virus has killed more than 1,100 people and infected nearly 45,000, predominantly in China and mostly in Wuhan. Singapore has reported 50 coronavirus cases, one of the highest tallies outside China, including mounting evidence of local transmission.
“I’d be pretty confident though that eventually every country will have a case,” Fisher said.
Asked why there were so many cases in Singapore, he said there were comparatively more tests being conducted on the island. “We have a very low index of suspicion for testing people so…we do have higher ascertainment,” he said, but added that there was a lot about transmission of the virus yet to be understood. Kenneth Mak, director of medical services at Singapore’s health ministry, told a news conference it was difficult to be confident in projections that the epidemic will peak in China this month but, in any case, peaks in other countries will lag China by one or two months. Fisher said there was no justification for the kind of panic buying of essentials like rice and toilet rolls seen in Singapore. “There’s no suggestion we are going to run out of anything,” he said. “I would just stay level-headed.” Nick Bit: Supplies are not the issue. Its what risk you take going shopping. And if your quarantined and they won’t let you on the streets your better have supplies… people are literally starving to death in China. They have locked down many apartment buildings……DAH!
He said the elderly and those with diabetes were most at risk of serious illness.
“For the vast majority of people it will just be a mild illness but still treat it with respect,” Fisher said.
U.S. Household Debt Exceeds $14 Trillion for the First Time
(Bloomberg) — Americans increased their borrowing for the 22nd straight quarter as more households took out loans to buy homes or refinance existing mortgages, according to a report released today from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Total U.S. household debt rose by $601 billion in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, or 1.4%, surpassing $14 trillion for the first time, the New York Fed’s quarterly household credit and debt report showed. That’s $1.5 trillion above the previous peak in the third quarter of 2008. Overall household debt is now 26.8% above the second-quarter 2013 trough. Mortgage borrowing rose by $120 billion to $9.56 trillion. The rate for a 30-year mortgage has fallen by about 100 basis points over the past year, adding to home purchasers’ buying power. For example, a $500,000, 30-year loan costs about $300 less per month. “Mortgage originations, including refinances, increased significantly in the final quarter of 2019,” Wilbert Van Der Klaauw, vice president at the New York Fed, said in a statement. Mortgage loans for young adults age 18 to 29 rose to a the highest level since the third quarter of 2007. Originations for 30-year-olds rose to $210.1 billion last quarter — the highest level since the end of 2005. Total debt for people ages 18 to 29 rose to a record $1.04 trillion. Student debt increased to $1.51 trillion from $1.46 trillion at the end of 2018. More than $100 billion in student debt is held by those age 60 and over. Auto loans rose to $1.33 trillion, while credit card debt rose to a record $930 billion. Auto debt, which has risen for 35 consecutive quarters, increased $16 billion from the previous quarter. Almost 5% of auto loans are 90 days of more delinquent. This is the highest percentage since the third quarter of 2011.
Credit card delinquencies rose to 8.36% an 18-month high.
Among student debt, one in nine borrowers were 90+ days delinquent or in default in 2019, and this figure may be understated. About half of student loans are currently in deferment, in grace periods or in forbearance and therefore temporarily not in the repayment cycle. Once these loans enter that cycle, delinquency rates are projected to be roughly twice as high, according to the Fed report.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) report for the week ending February 7
The API reported on Tuesday a crude oil inventory build of 6-million barrels. Last week saw a build in crude oil inventories of 4.18-million barrels, according to API data. Inventor builds are normal this time of year as we get to the slowest demand time of year. The API this week also reported a build of 1.1 million barrels of gasoline for week ending February 7. Distillate inventories were down by 2.3 million barrels for the week, compared to last week’s 1.78-million-barrel draw, while Cushing inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels. US crude oil production as estimated by the Energy Information Administration showed that production for the week ending January 31 slipped slightly to 12.9 million bpd off just 100,000 bpd from an all-time high.
Coronavirus cases fall, experts disagree whether peak is near
BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) – China reported on Wednesday its smallest number of new coronavirus cases since January, lending weight to a prediction by its top medical adviser for the outbreak to end by April, but a global diseases expert warned of the spread elsewhere.
Financial markets took heart from the outlook of the Chinese official, epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan, who said on Tuesday the number of new cases was falling in some provinces, and forecast the epidemic would peak this month, even as the death toll in China rose to more than 1,100 people.
World stocks, which had seen rounds of sell-offs over the virus, surged to record highs on hopes of a peak in cases. The Dow industrials, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all hit new highs, and Asian shares nudged higher on Wednesday But the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the epidemic poses a global threat akin to terrorism and one expert coordinating its response said while the outbreak may be peaking at its epicentre in China, it was likely to spread elsewhere in the world, where it had just begun. “It has spread to other places where it’s the beginning of the outbreak,” the official, Dale Fisher, head of the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network coordinated by the WHO, said in an interview in Singapore. “In Singapore, we are at the beginning of the outbreak.” Singapore has reported 47 cases and worry about the spread is growing. Its biggest bank, DBS (DBSM.SI), evacuated 300 staff from its head office on Wednesday after a confirmed coronavirus case in the building. Hundreds of cases have been reported in dozens of other countries and territories around the world, but only two people have died outside mainland China – one in Hong Kong and another in the Philippines.
WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Tuesday the world had to “wake up and consider this enemy virus as public enemy number one” and the first vaccine was 18 months away.
In China, total infections have hit 44,653, health officials said, including 2,015 new confirmed cases on Tuesday. That was the lowest daily rise in new cases since Jan. 30. The number of deaths on the mainland rose by 97 to 1,113 by the end of Tuesday. But doubts have been aired on social media about how reliable the figures are, after the government last week amended guidelines on the classification of cases. The biggest cluster of cases outside China is aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship quarantined off Japan’s port of Yokohama, with about 3,700 people on board. Japanese officials on Wednesday said 39 more people had tested positive for the virus, taking the total to 175. One of the new cases was a quarantine officer. Thailand said it was barring passengers from another cruise ship, MS Westerdam, from disembarking, the latest country to turn it away amid fears of the coronavirus, despite no confirmed infections on board. Travel restrictions that have paralysed the world’s second-biggest economy have left Wuhan and other Chinese cities resembling ghost towns. Even if the epidemic ends soon, it has taken a toll of China’s economy, with companies laying off workers and needing loans running into billions of dollars to stay afloat. Supply chains for makers of items from cars to smartphones have broken down.
China’s Top Virologist Makes Bombshell Coronavirus Claim
A top Chinese Government virologist well known for his role in fighting against the SARS, says the coronavirus outbreak will reach its peak in February
The WHO raised the coronavirus alarm on Tuesday but China’s top virologist claims the outbreak will peak in February.
- Top Chinese scientist believes the coronavirus outbreak will peak in February.
- Various data and footage shared by the Western media suggest real numbers are much higher.
- It has caused the Chinese people to protest online, wanting freedom of speech.
Zhong Nanshan, a top Chinese Government virologist well known for his role in fighting against the SARS outbreak some 17 years ago, says coronavirus will reach its peak in February.
According to the latest update from the New York Times, the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases in China have hit 42,000. On February 5, Primitive Crypto founding partner Dovey Wan revealed a report from Beijing-based mainstream publication Caixin was modified to remove the number of beds contained in 11 venues in Wuhan that have been turned into hospitals.
Various footage taken by citizen journalists in China released on platforms like Twitter seemingly show the Chinese police taking extreme measures such as welding apartment doors shut to prevent the coronavirus outbreak expanding. Balaji Srinivasan, a venture capital investor and chemical engineer acknowledged by the MIT, who has been actively covering updates on coronavirus, suggested that the intensity of pollution in China could have contributed to the worsening of the outbreak. Fears towards the ability of coronavirus to spread have noticeably increased when recent reports indicated the virus is easily transmissible airborne. CNN reported that a Hong Kong apartment was partially shut down after the authorities discovered that coronavirus had spread through pipes within the apartment building. The pace in which the virus is spreading and the Chinese government is rushing to build new facilities equipped with tens of thousands of beds indicate real numbers can be significantly higher. Earlier this week, the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) employed a new model to predict 500,000 people can be infected with coronavirus in Wuhan alone.
The forecasts of many high profile institutions including LSHTM and HKU show potential infections of up to half a million, with Leung’s model considering the possibility of the virus infecting more than 100,000 individuals per day.
There are concerns that the Chinese government is trying to lower the official numbers of coronavirus being raised by journalists who have covered China for a long time. Some analysts have described the outbreak as a “stress test” for President Xi, as the majority of the Chinese population’s dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the outbreak grows. Nick Note: This is much bigger then what we are being told.
Another Leaked Video Chinese WELDING SHUT apartment buildings residents inside
DEVASTATING footage shows coronavirus patients being welded inside their homes and “left to die” as China battles to contain the fatal disease.
It comes amid news that coronavirus has claimed more lives than the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003. A total of 774 people died in the SARS pandemic – another form of coronavirus that jumped from animals to humans.
The new videos also show officials barricading doors with metal bars – and in one scene, a woman in a white lab coat appears to speak to somebody inside an apartment as a welder works on the door, sparks flying from his torch. Some tweets read that the residents were “being locked in while they are left to die”. Due to China’s super-strict censorship laws, it’s extremely difficult to trace exactly where the welding scenes were shot.
Another harrowing video also emerged yesterday that appears to show a woman recently returned from Wuhan being barricaded into her home by black-clad Chinese authorities. The woman can be heard screaming and yelling while a group of masked men fit thick metal bars over her door. A sign outside reads: “This family came back from Wuhan. Stay away, no contact”. The deathly virus – originated in Wuhan – has spread across the globe striking down thousands and killing hundreds, with more confirmed cases by the minute. Activists say as well as Chinese authorities, mob rule has gripped some panic-stricken neighbourhoods and groups of civilians are barricading infected people’s homes. There are also suggestions some members of the public are digging up roads leading to Wuhan and Hubei, two of the worst affected regions.
Meanwhile, communist regime in China has been pictured rounding up patients in Wuhan with the virus and taking them to camps. As well as those suspected of having the virus, China’s central government ordered that those close to the patients should also be put into the camps.
What we are witnessing is essentially a breakdown in government
Gordon Chang
According to an expert in Chinese affairs and censorship, Gordon Chang, the Chinese authorities are deliberately falsifying the coronavirus numbers. Mr Chang, an expert in Chinese affairs and censorship, said here has been a “breakdown in government” which means it has “just lost the ability to pick up corpses”. He told Fox: “I think that the government in Wuhan and some other cities have just lost the ability to pick up corpses. “What we are witnessing is essentially a breakdown in government and keeping accurate statistics is a very minor part of their priorities right now.”
The coronavirus situation is being described as China’s Chernobyl after it was initially covered up for months. The latest official numbers breaching the 20,600 mark, with 2,790 cases believed to be critical. Case numbers are growing exponentially in China on a daily basis. Current measures, such as proper screening of those escaping Wuhan, are not being carried out as efficiently as Beijing claims. Nick Note: As the politicians and Wall Street blow blue sky and smoke up your ass for the record this pandemic is far far from over. The greedy desperate Chinese communist government wants the slaves back at their machines in the prematurely reopened factories. And this will start the next wave of what will be a global pandemic unless GOD intervenes….. and soon!
Vaccine for new coronavirus ‘COVID-19’ could be ready in 18 months – WHO
GENEVA (Reuters) – The first vaccine targeting China’s coronavirus could be available in 18 months, “so we have to do everything today using available weapons”, World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in Geneva on Tuesday. He said the virus had been named COVID-19, explaining that it was important to avoid stigma and that other names could be inaccurate. Nick Note: Help me with the math here. Lets say a proven vaccine that is safe comes along in 18 months. How long do you think it will take to make and distribute 100 million dose Six months. OK… and who do you think is going to get this life saving jabs… Well protocol calls for first responders, front line medical personnel and of course the big wigs and politicians. That meas at best your punk ass will wait at least 3 years… in other words is their will be no vaccine in time.. so you better protect yourself!