Even as debilitating U.S. sanctions targeting Iran’s oil industry remain slated to snap back in November, Tehran may seek to maintain a status-quo arrangement with the West until the fate of the Trump presidency becomes clearer, according to top Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour. “It seems that the Iranian strategy is essentially to wait out the Trump administration,” Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said. “To wait what happens with the midterm elections, wait until 2020, to see if President Trump is reelected.” In an interview with Intelligence Matters host and CBS senior national security contributor Michael Morell, Sadjadpour outlined a range of possible outcomes from the U.S.-Iran standoff as theon the regime. “Outcome number one is essentially status quo,” Sadjadpour said. “The U.S. has pulled out of the deal, but Iran remains part of the nuclear deal as do other parties to the deal: Europe, Russia and China.” In a status-quo scenario, Sadjadpour said, Iran is likely to maintain that the United States, under Trump, and in reneging on its international commitments, is behaving like a rogue regime – all while Iran makes good on its agreements. “Which, if you’re the United States,” he told Morell, “isn’t a bad outcome because Iran is continuing to keep its foot on the nuclear brakes.” Last month, the European Union’s high representative for foreign affairs, Federica Mogherini, announced the establishment of a while avoiding the effects of U.S. sanctions. A number of European businesses, however, have nonetheless suspended its relationships with Iran – whose currency, the rial, has lost 70 percent of its value in the past year. “Iran is a country which has enormous potential. It’s got enormous human capital. And obviously it has enormous resources in oil and gas,” Sadjadpour said. “But it’s tremendously– it’s consistently punched below its weight as an economy.” In a second scenario – which might appeal to President Trump, Sadjadpour continued – the Iranians would, by virtue of deteriorating economic conditions and heightened risk of social unrest, be effectively forced to engage diplomatically and renegotiate the nuclear deal “along the lines of what happened with Kim Jong Un.” “Iran’s supreme leader is much more stubborn,” Sadjadpour observed, but “has a much shorter timeframe than Kim Jong Un.” President Trump has signaled a willingness to meet and negotiate with Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, who has largely rebuffed offers of dialogue with the U.S. “Trump’s offer of direct talks with Iran is not honest or genuine,” Rouhani wrote in an op-ed last month. “I think President Rouhani would like to see a different relationship between America and Iran,” Sadjadpour told Morell, “but as long as Khamenei is supreme leader, that acrimony is going to remain.” Khamenei, Sadjadpour said, has for years sought to downplay the impact of sanctions while assigning blame to domestic mismanagement. “The modus operandi of Iran’s supreme leader is he wields power with accountability,” Sadjadpour explained, “and in order to do that, he needs a president who has accountability without power.” The supreme leader also maintains a carefully calibrated symbiotic relationship with Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps, Sadjadpour told Morell, in part by routinely exchanging economic benefits for steadfast political and military support. “[The IRGC have] made a lot of money over the years,” Sadjadpour said. “They’re not only Iran’s increasingly the most powerful political institution, but also Iran’s most powerful economic institution.”
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. homebuilding dropped more than expected in September as construction activity in the South fell by the most in nearly three years, likely held down by Hurricane Florence. Other details of the report published by the Commerce Department on Wednesday were also soft. Building permits declined to their lowest level in almost 1-1/2 years. The housing market, which has been a weak spot in a robust economy, has been hobbled by an acute shortage of properties for sale. Residential investment contracted in the first half of the year and the latest data supports economists’ expectations that housing remained a drag on economic growth in the third quarter. Housing starts fell 5.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.201 million units last month. Data for August was revised down to show starts rising to a rate of 1.268 million units instead of the previously reported pace of 1.282 million units. July’s sales pace was also revised lower. Starts in the South, which accounts for the bulk of homebuilding, tumbled 13.7 percent last month. That was the biggest decline since October 2015. Hurricane Florence slammed North and South Carolina in mid-September and flooding from the storm probably depressed homebuilding last month. Building permits fell 0.6 percent to a rate of 1.241 million units in September. That was the second straight monthly decline and left permits at their lowest level since May 2017. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts declining to a pace of 1.220 million units last month. Starts surged 29 percent in the Northeast and rose 6.6 percent in the West. They fell 14.0 percent in the Midwest.U.S. Economists blame the sluggish housing market on rising mortgage rates, which have combined with higher house prices to make home purchasing unaffordable for some first-time buyers. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped 19 basis points to 4.90 percent last week, the highest level since mid-April 2011, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac. The mortgage rate has risen about 91 basis points this year. While mortgage rates are still low by historical standards, the rise has outpaced annual wage growth, which has been stuck below 3 percent. House prices have increased 6.0 percent on an annual basis and are being driven by the dearth of properties. Single-family homebuilding, which accounts for the largest share of the housing market, decreased 0.9 percent to a rate of 871,000 units in September. Single-family homebuilding has lost momentum since hitting a pace of 948,000 units last November, which was the strongest in more than 10 years. Permits to build single-family homes rose 2.9 percent in September to a pace of 851,00 units. They, however, remain below the level of single-family starts, suggesting limited scope for a strong rebound in homebuilding. Starts for the volatile multi-family housing segment plunged 15.2 percent to a rate of 330,000 units in September. Permits for the construction of multi-family homes declined 7.6 percent to a pace of 390,000 units. With starts and building permits declining last month, housing supply will likely remain tight. That was also reinforced by a 4.1 percent drop in homebuilding completions in September to a rate of 1.161 million units, the lowest level since November 2017. Realtors estimate that housing starts and completion rates need to be in a range of 1.5 million to 1.6 million units per month to plug the inventory gap. The stock of housing under construction increased 0.3 percent to more than an 11-year high of 1.129 million units last month. However, multi-family homes accounted for much of the increase.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Wednesday, with U.S. futures slipping below $70 a barrel for the first time in a month, after U.S. stockpiles rose by 6.5 million barrels, almost triple what analysts had forecast, while exports dropped. Oil had been rising on worries about Iranian sanctions and tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia after the death of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. “This market is dangerously close to $70. If it goes down through $70, I think some of that speculative position may have interest in getting out, and that could accentuate the downside,” said Bob Yawger, director of futures at Mizuho in New York. Crude stocks rose 6.5 million barrels for the week through Oct. 12, and exports were down to 1.8 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said, in a report analysts characterized as bearish. Oil futures were already sinking in anticipation of larger crude inventories and in tandem with recent declines in equity markets worldwide. The scandal over the disappearance of prominent Saudi critic and journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who disappeared two weeks ago after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, had underpinned oil markets earlier in the week. U.S. lawmakers pointed the finger at the Saudi leadership and Western pressure mounted on Riyadh to provide answers, but President Donald Trump’s comments suggested that White House may not take additional action against the Saudis, particularly after Saudi Arabia has said it will conduct an investigation. Investors worry Saudi Arabia could use oil supply to retaliate against critics. Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates, said Saudi Arabia could cut as much as 500,000 barrels per day of crude production “as a warning shot” to discourage U.S. sanctions. A claim by the United States that it aims to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero is a “political bluff”, the head of the state-run National Iranian Oil Company was quoted as saying on Wednesday. New U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports start on Nov. 4, while Iran has accused Saudi Arabia and Russia of breaking an OPEC-led agreement on output cuts by producing more crude.
With concerns that Saudi Arabia may have ordered the gruesome murder of a dissident journalist who went missing two weeks ago, President Donald Trump admitted in a new interview that Saudi Arabia has “been a great ally.” Trump sat down with Fox Business Network Tuesday and discussed myriad topics, including the disappearance of Saudi writer and U.S. resident Jamal Khashoggi. “Turkey and Saudi Arabia are looking at it very strongly. It depends whether or not the king or the crown prince knew about it, in my opinion,” Trump said. “No. 1, what happened, but whether or not they knew about it. If they knew about it, that would be bad. If they didn’t know about it, bad things can happen.” Trump then explained how Saudi Arabia has been a strong partner in the pushback against Iran. “You look at what they’re doing in Iran. Don’t forget, Saudi Arabia is our partner, they’re our ally against Iran, against missiles, and against what they’re doing, trying to take over the Middle East,” he said. “They’ve been a great ally to me.” After referencing a U.S.-Saudi Arabia arms deal that’s worth $110 billion, Trump did concede that it would not at all be appropriate if Khashoggi was killed on orders from the Saudi government. “With all of that being said, you can’t do what we’ve been reading about. We’re gonna learn a lot about it,” he said.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Facing the prospect of bruising electoral defeat in congressional elections, President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he won’t accept the blame if his party loses control of the House in November, arguing his campaigning and endorsements have helped Republican candidates. In a wide-ranging interview three weeks before Election Day, Trump told The Associated Press he senses voter enthusiasm rivaling 2016 and he expressed cautious optimism that his most loyal supporters will vote even when he is not on the ballot. He dismissed suggestions that he might take responsibility, as his predecessor did, for midterm losses or view the outcome as a referendum on his presidency. “No, I think I’m helping people,” Trump said. “I don’t believe anybody’s ever had this kind of an impact.” Trump spoke on a range of subjects, defending Saudi Arabia from growing condemnation over the case of a missing journalist, accusing his longtime attorney Michael Cohen of lying under oath and flashing defiance when asked about the insult — “Horseface” — he hurled at Stormy Daniels, the porn actress who accuses him of lying about an affair. Asked if it was appropriate to insult a woman’s appearance, Trump responded, “You can take it any way you want.” In an interview with the Associated Press, President Donald Trump criticized the rush to condemn Saudi Arabia for the mystery surrounding missing journalist. He also said he is not responsible if the GOP loses seats after the midterm elections (Oct 16)
A blacklist of 21 countries whose so-called “golden passport” schemes threaten international efforts to combat tax evasion has been published by the west’s leading economic thinktank.Three European countries – Malta, Monaco and Cyprus – are among those nations flagged as operating high-risk schemes that sell either residency or citizenship in a report released on Tuesday by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and DevelopmentIn exchange for donations to a sovereign trust fund, or investments in property or government bonds, foreign nationals can become citizens of countries in which they have never lived. Other schemes, such as that operated by the UK, offer residency in exchange for sizable investments.
The programme operated by Malta is particularly popular because as a European member state its nationals, including those who buy citizenship, can live and work anywhere in the EU.
The country has, since 2014, sold citizenship to more than 700 people, most of them from Russia, the former Soviet bloc, China and the Middle East. But concern is growing among political leaders, law enforcement and intelligence agencies that the schemes are open to abuse by criminals and sanctions-busting business people.
Transparency International and Global Witness, in a joint report published last week, described how the EU had gained nearly 100,000 new residents and 6,000 new citizens in the past decade through poorly managed arrangements that were “shrouded in secrecy”. Also on the OECD blacklist are a handful of Caribbean nations that pioneered the modern-day methods for the marketing of citizenship. These include Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Dominica, Grenada, St Lucia, and St Kitts and Nevis, which has sold 16,000 passports since relaunching its programme in 2006.Second passports can be misused by those wishing to “hide assets held abroad”
The OECD believes the ease with which the wealthiest individuals can obtain another nationality is undermining information sharing. If a UK national declares themselves as Cypriot, for example, information about their offshore bank accounts could be shared with Cyprus instead of Britain’s HM Revenue and Customs. The final names on the list are Bahrain, Colombia, Malaysia, Mauritius, Montserrat, Panama, Qatar, Seychelles, Turks and Caicos Islands, United Arab Emirates and Vanuatu.
LONDON (Reuters) – Nearly half of Europe’s largest stocks are now in what analysts call a bear market or downturn, data analysed by Reuters showed on Monday, as fears mount that the post-financial crisis rally might be on its last legs outside the United States. The pan-European STOXX 600, currently at a 22-month low, is itself down almost 12 percent since its January peak, and 290 of its 600 components have lost at least 20 percent in value from their highest levels in the last 52 weeks.Two sectors stand out particularly in the retreat: the automotive industry and banks, which have lost roughly 28 percent and 25 percent respectively. While Wall Street’s buoyant indexes managed to bounce back last Friday after the biggest scare since a market correction in February, shares in Asia and in Europe are currently failing to recover. The divergence between bullish U.S. stock markets and the rest of global stock markets has been a red flag for investors since the beginning of the year. European equities have struggled as political turmoil and the region’s vulnerability to trade risks starkly contrasted with the allure of tax cuts, stock buybacks and a booming economy in the United States. A poll of about 30 brokers, fund managers and analysts at the end of August showed that the STOXX 600 index was expected to rise by only 2.8 percent to 400 points by year-end, but this forecast looks increasingly optimistic. “I was one of the most pessimistic but I think I was right,” said Stephane Barbier de la Serre, a strategist at Makor Capital Markets who participated in the poll and expects the index to end the year at 350 points.Hit by a toxic mix of rising U.S. Treasury yields, a strong dollar, slowing domestic growth, an escalating Sino-U.S. trade war and rising oil prices, equities from emerging markets are already deep into bear market territory, down more than 25 percent, and have lost more than $1.1 trillion in value. Analysts from Bank of America Merrill Lynch said on Friday that 1,557 global stocks out of 2,767 – or 56 percent of the MSCI ACWI – are in a bear market.
Retail sales rise 0.1% in September, below Wall Street forecast
The numbers: Sales at U.S. retailers barely grew in September as Americans spent less at restaurants, grocery stores and gas stations, raising questions about whether the economy slowed toward the end of summer. Retail sales rose just 0.1% for the second month in a row. Wall Street had expected a 0.6% increase, according to Econoday.
Sales would have fallen if not for a big month at auto dealers. Sales may have been hindered in part by Hurricane Florence, but the U.S. Census Bureau said it could not calculate the impact. The storm battered parts of the Atlanta seaboard, most notably the Carolinas. After a string of strong sales, bars and restaurants saw a big dropoff. Sales sank 1.8% in September to mark the biggest decline since the end of 2016. Sales fell sharply at gas stations and department stores. Department stores have been losing ground for years to internet retailers such as Amazon AMZN, -1.68% . Sears SHLD, -23.91% is the latest victim of the switch from traditional brick-and-mortar shopping to online sales. The giant and long established department store is entering bankruptcy proceedings.Sales at internet retailers climbed 1.1% in September. Auto dealers posted a 0.8% increase. The U.S. appeared to enter the fall with strong momentum, but the second straight weak retail sales report suggests the economy might have cooled off a bit in the third quarter. The prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and last week’s big decline in the U.S. stock market could add to the anxieties.
Lampert steps down as CEO and is exploring potential bid for some Sears stores
Sears Holdings Corp. filed for bankruptcy protection from creditors, marking the collapse of a company that dominated American retailing for much of the 20th century. The retailer SHLD, -23.83% , which sought chapter 11 protection in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in White Plains, N.Y., reached a deal with its lenders that will allow the 125-year-old company to keep hundreds of its stores open for now. The company said its controlling shareholder, Edward Lampert, has stepped down as CEO, but will remain chairman. The hedge-fund manager, who took control when he merged Kmart with Sears in 2005, ran the company as it racked up losses and closed hundreds of stores in recent years. Sears said it would close 142 money-losing stores near the end of the year, with liquidation sales expected to begin shortly. The closings are in addition to 46 stores that are expected to close by next month. Currently, the company operates roughly 700 Sears and Kmart stores. It employs about 70,000 people. The bankruptcy filing came before Sears was required to repay $134 million in loans later on Monday. Sears has lined up $1.875 billion in bankruptcy financing to pay off its existing loans and fund its stores pending the chapter 11 case, or about $300 million more than what the company had before the filing. Lampert’s hedge fund, ESL Investments Inc., is in talks to provide another $300 million junior bankruptcy loan that would provide additional cash for the retailer’s business. ESL is also exploring a stalking-horse bid to buy “a large portion” of the company’s stores in the bankruptcy process.
“Just spoke to the King of Saudi Arabia who denies any knowledge of whatever may have happened ‘to our Saudi Arabian citizen.’ He said that they are working closely with Turkey to find answer. I am immediately sending our Secretary of State to meet with King!’
Khashoggi, a Saudi national and U.S. resident who has been a vocal press critic of Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has not been seen since entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2. He is feared dead. His disappearance has sparked a worldwide outcry. Turkish authorities claim they have video and audio recordings indicating Khashoggi was first interrogated in the consulate, then tortured and murdered. The Washington Post reported evidence has been shared with U.S. authorities. The alleged hit squad was sent from Saudi Arabia and organized the killing. A bone saw was used to dismember Khashoggi’s body and it was placed in handheld cases and transported back to Saudi Arabia. Pompeo is expected to go to Riyadh and later visit Turkey.
NUSA DUA, Indonesia (Reuters) – Italian officials must stop questioning the euro and need to “calm down” in their budget debate as they have already caused damage to firms and households, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Saturday. A senior member of Italy’s ruling coalition shot back that it was Draghi who should calm down, rather than draw attention to occasional comments on the euro which were personal opinions and had no implications for government policy. Italy’s government is in a war of words with European officials over its plans to triple the deficit next year, backtracking on a previous pledge to narrow the budget gap in one of the bloc’s most indebted countries. “A budgetary expansion in a high debt country becomes much more complicated … if people start to put in question the euro,” Draghi told a news conference at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting in Indonesia. “These statements … have created real damage and there’s plenty of evidence that spreads have increased in connection with these statements,” Draghi said. “The results of which is that household and firms pay higher interest rates on loans.” Italian bond yields rose sharply this month after a senior official from one of the ruling parties said Italy would be better off with its own currency, though he later reiterated the government’s frequent reassurances that quitting the euro is not in its program and it has no plans to do so. “The very first thing (to do) is to calm down with the tone. And then the second thing is we have to wait for the facts,” Draghi said, stressing the need to examine the actual spending plans, which may differ from the government’s communications. Alberto Bagnai, a senator from the right-wing League who heads the Senate finance committee, said Draghi himself risked agitating markets by drawing attention to rare personal opinions on the single currency that were not government policy. “Draghi should calm down and stop mentioning the euro. Nobody does it around here,” he tweeted. Draghi also batted back accusations from some corners in the Italian government that the ECB’s plan to phase out asset purchases by the end of the year had caused the increase in spreads. Draghi, a former governor of Italy’s central bank, said markets had not reacted in June to the ECB’s decision to end its asset buys but had moved specifically on local Italian issues. He pointed to the narrowing of the yield difference between Italy and Greece as evidence that the problem is localized. Since the ECB is buying Italian but not Greek bonds, a bigger rise in Italian yields would suggest that investors are not acting on overall ECB policy change but a local issue.
Washington (CNN)The retired British spy who wrote an explosive dossier about President Donald Trump’s alleged ties to Russia broke his silence to criticize Trump and the “distorted” state of US politics. The former spy, Christopher Steele, wrote to Vanity Fair shortly after he was named to the magazine’s “2018 New Establishment List.” CNN reviewed a copy of Steele’s email, which included his most political comments since his dossier gained international attention in January 2017. “In these strange and troubling times, it is hard to speak unpalatable truths to power, but I believe we all still have a duty to do so,” Steele said. “I salute those on your list, and otherwise, who have had the courage to speak out over the last year, often at great personal cost.”
Steele went on to say, “(A)t a time when governance is so distorted and one-sided, as I believe it currently is in the United States, the media has a key role to play in holding it accountable.”
Ministers threaten to QUIT in protest at concessions to the EU
Theresa May vowed she will never sign up to a Brexit deal that ‘permanently’ traps the UK in the EU customs union. The PM made the promise as ministers threaten to quit over the latest concessions to Brussels. Mrs May is under fire from all sides as she races against time to thrash out a divorce deal with the EU that does not tear her government to pieces. But her latest plan to break the deadlock has caused fury amid claims it could see the UK commit to staying in the customs union beyond 2020 with no hard departure date. In an effort to soothe tensions, Downing Street insisted today: ‘The Prime Minister would never agree to a deal which would trap the UK in a backstop permanently.’ Meanwhile, the DUP is warning it will oust Mrs May if she bows to demands from Brussels for Northern Ireland to stay within the single market.
The walls are closing on the premier with just days to go until a crunch EU summit that could decide the country’s future.
Mrs May gathered her Brexit ‘War Cabinet’ last night to try and swing them behind her ideas for unlocking the negotiations. Her new ‘backstop’ plan to avoid a hard Irish border would see the UK effectively remain in a customs union with the EU after Brexit until a permanent solution to the Irish border problem can be found. A previous commitment that the UK will have cut ties by the end of 2021 ‘at the latest’ is set to be dropped after fierce resistance from Brussels. Sources insist that backstop would still be ‘temporary’ and is likely to last ‘months, not years’.
The meeting last night – are believed to be considering whether they can go along with the compromise Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey (pictured) is also believed to have serious doubts about Mrs May’s approach But Liam Fox, Sajid Javid, Gavin Williamson, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Dominic Raab all voiced concern about the concession. Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom, Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey, and Aid Secretary Penny Mordaunt – who were not invited to the meeting last night – are believed to be considering whether they can go along with the compromise. No formal proposal was put to the ministers, but they were asked to agree the ‘direction of travel’ as negotiators seek agreement with the EU. One Cabinet source predicted the issue could lead to resignations in the coming days, saying: ‘This is going to be a big test for some ministers. Are they willing to accept assurances that this is temporary if those words have no legal force? If not, then they surely have to resign.’ It would see the whole of the UK stay in the customs union ‘temporarily’ until a wider trade deal is struck. Northern Ireland would effectively remain in the single market to avoid regulatory checks on the border with the Republic. The government’s previous plan said that it wanted the UK to stay in the customs union until 2021 ‘at the latest’. But it is not clear whether the UK would be subject to rules that stop countries striking their own trade deals outside the bloc. The backstop is designed to fall away when a wider trade pact is agreed – which Mrs May says should be based on her Chequers plan for a ‘combined customs territory’ with the EU.
International Trade Secretary Dr Fox, whose plans for trade deals outside the EU would be severely limited inside a customs union, has told friends the proposal would ‘make life very difficult for me’. However, Government Chief Whip Julian Smith last night urged Tory MPs and ministers to rally round, saying: ‘The Prime Minister and the Government are conducting a complex negotiation that is going well and we should be backing the Prime Minister.’ Proposals for a so-called ‘temporary customs arrangement’ were first announced in June as part of ‘backstop’ plans to resolve the Irish border problem. At the time, the then Brexit secretary David Davis threatened to resign unless a clear end date was inserted, forcing Mrs May to accept the plan would be ‘time limited’. But Brussels has been implacable in its opposition to an end date, saying the ‘backstop’ plan must be ‘all-weather’. Tory Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg said: ‘Income tax was supposed to be temporary. Gladstone said it would expire in 1860. ‘Likewise, the 1911 Parliament Act says it is temporary. Both are still here.’ Chancellor Philip Hammond today signalled that the EU and UK were getting closer to agreement – and held out the prospect of a ‘deal dividend’ for the economy if a settlement is reached. ‘What has happened over the last week, 10 days, is there has been a measurable change in pace,’ he told the BBC. ‘There is a real sense now of engagement from both sides, of shared enterprise in trying to solve a problem rather than posturing towards each other. A really important step change. ‘But that shouldn’t conceal the fact that we have some big differences left to resolve. Process is a lot more positive this week, substance still very challenging. ‘If we are able to get to a good deal for Britain as we leave the European Union I believe there will be a dividend, a deal dividend for us.’ As pressure mounted on Mrs May last night, a DUP MP called for her to be replaced with a new Tory leader. The party has become increasingly alarmed that Mrs May will accept Northern Ireland staying in the single market while mainland Britain leaves – something they say would split the UK.
The world’s supply and demand of crude have reached record levels, accord to the International Energy Agency (IEA)
The figures have hit 100 million barrels a day.A new IEA report points out: Both global oil demand and supply are now close to new, historically significant peaks at 100 mb/d, and neither show signs of ceasing to grow any time soon. Fifteen years ago, forecasts of peak supply were all the rage, with production from non-OPEC countries supposed to have started declining by now. In fact, production has surged, led by the US shale revolution, and supported by big increases in Brazil, Canada and elsewhere. In future, a lot of potential supply could come to the market from places like Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela, if their various challenges can be overcome. There is no peak in sight for demand either. “Peak supply” was based on the notion that the world would begin to run out of oil reserves, which eventually would weigh on prices. Among the reasons the theory is not true is future production. Nigeria and Venezuela have had problems with political tensions, and economic disasters. However, Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and Nigeria is in 10th place by the same measure. Sanctions against Iran could hamper its exports, for now. It has the fourth largest proven oil reserves in the world. As demand increases, so does the strain on oil production and refinery capacity. This, in turn, probably will increase prices. IEA experts point out: It is an extraordinary achievement for the global oil industry to meet the needs of a 100 mb/d market, but today, in 4Q18, we have reached new twin peaks for demand and supply by straining parts of the system to the limit. Recent production increases come at the expense of spare capacity, which is already down to only 2% of global demand, with further reductions likely to come. This strain could be with us for some time and it will likely be accompanied by higher prices, however much we regret them and their potential negative impact on the global economy.
It’s well known at this point that just under 30 percent of Americans ages 17 to 24 ― the prime age to join the Army ― aren’t eligible to join. But beyond that, almost a third of those who sit down with a recruiter to take the first steps are immediately disqualified. Why? Because of their weight. “Out of all the reasons that we have future soldiers disqualify, the largest – 31 percent ― is obesity,” Maj. Gen. Frank Muth, head of Army Recruiting Command, said Wednesday at AUSA’s annual meeting in Washington, D.C. A freshly published study, “Unhealthy and Unprepared” concludes that America’s rising numbers of overweight youth are going to have real impacts on the military’s ability to maintain effectiveness. “We’ve got to make sure that message gets out, because our concern is what happens when that percentage that qualify … potentially goes down?” Muth said. “Or if the obesity, if that starts to go up.”The study was undertaken by researchers with Mission: Readiness, an organization of more than 700 retired senior military leaders. One solution, they found, was institutionalized fitness and nutrition programs in schools, to ensure that kids grow up with healthy habits. Researchers found that of the 29 percent of young Americans who have a high school diploma, no criminal record and no chronic medical issues, just 17 percent would be qualified and available for active duty, and 13 percent would qualify, be available, and achieve a satisfactory score on the Armed Forces Qualification Test. “These numbers are particularly concerning because as the recruitable population has declined, so has interest in serving in the military,” the study found.
Experts say healthy eating choices have to start young if the Army is going to be able to find enough recruits who meet weight requirements. (Scott T. Sturkol/Army) In 2016, 13 percent of 16- to 24-year-olds were interested in joining the military, and that number dropped 2 percent in 2017. And for recruits who are overweight but not so much so that they can’t enlist altogether, there are risks after they have joined and are getting in shape during training. The obesity issue is particularly stark in the South, from which the Army draws a large number of its recruits. The Citadel, a military college in South Carolina, found that recruits in 10 Southern states had lower levels of physical fitness and were 22 percent to 28 percent more likely to be injured during basic training than their peers from other areas of the country, according to Mission: Readiness. Further, a 2016 study published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine found that “active duty soldiers with obesity were 33 percent more likely to suffer musculoskeletal injury, contributing to the more than 3.6 million injuries that occurred among active duty service members between 2008 and 2017.”
Musculoskeletal injuries and stress fractures have also been the leading cause of medical evacuations during deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, above and beyond other injuries. As of 2015, 7.8 percent of active duty service members were considered overweight by their height and weight, up 73 percent from 2011, according to the report. “[The Defense Department] spends $1.5 billion a year on obesity-related health care for active duty service members and veterans and their family members,” or missing 650,000 days of work for active duty troops, said retired Lt. Gen. Thomas Spoehr. The Army expects to see positive results from implementing the Occupational Physical Assessment Test to evaluate potential recruits before they join up, then following up with the Army Combat Fitness Test through their careers, as part of a holistic program that provides dietitians, physical therapists and other support staff at the unit level. One retired three-star put the issue in harsher terms. “You know, lieutenant, fat people don’t make good soldiers,” said retired Lt. Gen. Sam Ebbessen, recalling the words of an advanced individual training instructor master sergeant he worked for at Fort Dix, New Jersey. “They’re a weak link in the chain, and they get themselves and others killed.”
(Reuters) – Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD.O) is preparing to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the coming days following years of declining sales, sources said on Wednesday, casting doubt over the survival of what was once the world’s largest retailer. The bankruptcy filing would end a standoff between Chief Executive Officer Eddie Lampert, the retailer’s biggest shareholder and lender, and a special board committee the company has formed to consider a rescue plan proposed by Lampert that would involve asset sales and a debt restructuring. The committee has been resisting the plan amid concerns that creditors and shareholders would sue over it being too favorable for Lampert. His history of financial engineering at Sears for more than a decade through deals tied to his hedge fund ESL Investments Inc could now be subjected to new scrutiny by Sears’ creditors in bankruptcy court, according to the sources.. A $134-million debt payment that Sears has to meet on Monday has added pressure on both Lampert and the special committee to find a resolution. Lampert had told the special committee he would not help the company fund that obligation unless it agreed to his plan, the sources said. “For whatever reason, Sears’ board said enough is enough,” said Chad Brand, president of Peridot Capital Management, which holds Sears bonds. Brand added that he had significantly cut down on his Sears bond holdings earlier this year amid concerns from his clients. At its peak in the 1960s, Sears sold everything from toys and auto parts to mail-order homes, and was a key tenant in almost every big mall across the United States. But it has struggled to reinvent itself in the face of online competition from companies such as Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O), as well as from other brick-and-mortar retailers, including Walmart Inc(WMT.N). It is not clear whether Sears would survive a bankruptcy process. When Toys ‘R’ Us, the largest specialty toy retailer, filed for bankruptcy protection last September, it sought to emerge from it after restructuring its debt and shutting stores. Instead, it was forced to liquidate last March, after creditors balked at providing a new lifeline to the company. If Sears were to file for bankruptcy, its financial performance during the upcoming holiday season could prove crucial in determining its future, according to the sources. Toys ‘R’ Us’ creditors lost faith in the retailer after revenue during last year’s holiday season failed to meet their expectations.
Rick Huether’s family has run a manufacturing company in Maryland since the 1940s. So he knows a bit about keeping blue-collar jobs in America. But now he, like many other manufacturers in the US, is worried. In March, President Donald Trump announced steep tariffs on foreign steel and aluminium, citing the need to protect those industries. But the move has left hundreds of other firms, including Mr Huether’s Independent Can Co, exposed. His firm, which employs more than 400 people and takes over $100m (£77m) in annual sales, relies on tin-plated steel from Europe and Canada to make specialty products such as biscuit tins and coffee cans. The tariffs are expected to add about $1.5m in surprise expense this year. And Mr Huether says they have already cost him one long-time customer, who turned to China amid the uncertainty. “We need a strong steel industry – no question about it,” he says. “But I don’t think they’ve thought through the ramifications.” To assuage business concerns, the Commerce Department said it would allow firms to apply for exemptions from the tariffs. The department rules on the request after a comment period, during which metal producers can object. Instead of calming debate, however, the procedure has triggered new turmoil, after companies overwhelmed the department with requests. About 800 businesses, including Independent Can, submitted more than 34,000 petitions, citing issues such as as quality flaws, delivery delays and lack of production in the US. As of 10 September, officials had decided on more than 4,300 of the requests, approving about 55%. But the majority of the applications are still pending, leaving Independent Can and many others in limbo. “It’s very frustrating. If we could buy domestic, we would buy everything domestic,” says Mr Huether, who submitted more than 30 requests and estimates he has spent about $100,000 trying to navigate the process. “We only went overseas because quality issues domestically forced us.” The decision lag has led to fierce lobbying and complaints from Republicans and Democrats alike about a lack of transparency and bureaucratic micromanagement. Nor has it escaped notice that many of the denials appear to be prompted by objections from steelmakers – an industry with close ties to the administration. For example, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross used to own steel companies, while the head of steelmaker Nucor advised Mr Trump during the 2016 presidential election. The Commerce Department has twice revised its process, bringing on more staff and expanding the opportunities for manufacturers to respond to the objections, but their frustration remains high. “There’s no criteria,” says Chad Bown, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “So of course it opens up a huge can of worms and concerns that for anybody who gets [a waiver], it’s favouritism or corruption or just not transparent.” US Steel, one of the firms that opposed Mr Huether’s requests, declined to comment on how the administration is handling the process. But a company spokeswoman said its expansion plans – it has already restarted one blast furnace and is preparing to restart another – showed it had the ability to meet US demand. Peter Morici, an emeritus professor at the University of Maryland business school, says politicians are dramatising the problems ahead of US congressional elections in November. As US steel and aluminium makers boost capacity, the kinds of issues cited by manufacturers should subside, he adds. “In the near term, there’s an adjustment problem,” Mr Morici says. “In the longer term, there’s no steel that we can’t make here.” But many firms can’t afford to wait, especially as the surging demand for US-made metals has led to higher prices, says Christine McDaniel, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center, a pro-free market think tank housed at George Mason University, who has analysed the requests. “Eventually this does come out of the bottom line of firms, of shareholders or of consumers. You can’t escape it,” she says. “And small and medium-sized manufacturers are the ones that are feeling the brunt of this right now.” Companies in Missouri, Indiana, Illinois and elsewhere have announced hundreds of layoffs already. Other firms have scaled back expansion plans or said they will shift work overseas. Independent Can raised prices in September, breaking with its custom of setting prices at the start of the year. It is looking to automate lower-skilled jobs, often filled by temporary workers, to reduce expenses
LONDON (Reuters) – British surveyors are the most downbeat about house prices since the Brexit vote in 2016 with some unsettled by reports that Bank of England Governor Mark Carney warned ministers of a possible house price crash if Britain leaves the EU with no deal. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said its headline house price balance fell to a four-month low of -2 in September, below all forecasts in a Reuters poll. The outlook for prices in three and 12 months’ time was the lowest since June 2016. “Uncertainty relating to Brexit negotiations is at the very top of the list followed by references to the confidential remarks made by the Bank of England Governor to the cabinet,” RICS Chief Economist Simon Rubinsohn said. Last month British media reported Carney privately told ministers that mortgage rates could spiral and house prices fall by 35 percent over three years in a chaotic no-deal Brexit. The BoE declined to comment on the remarks and whether Carney had been referring to extreme financial scenarios used for previous BoE tests of banks’ financial health. Carney himself did not address the reports in a public appearance on the day they appeared, but reiterated that the BoE had tested banks against “very severe” scenarios including “dramatic house price falls”. Britain’s housing market overall has slowed since the Brexit vote in June 2016. Official data for July showed prices up 3 percent on the year compared to gains of around 8 percent at the time of the referendum. The headline figure masks big regional variations. Prices are falling in London, which saw the biggest rises before the Brexit vote. The city is vulnerable to Brexit worries among foreign investors and any barriers to financial services trade. By contrast, RICS said prices continued to rise in most of the United Kingdom outside London and neighbouring areas. Sales were slow almost everywhere, however. New buyer enquiries were the weakest since March and houses were taking the longest to sell since RICS started asking its members about this regularly in February 2017.
NUSA DUA, Indonesia (Reuters) – International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde on Thursday warned countries of the perils of a trade or a currency war, saying they could be detrimental to global growth and hurt “innocent bystanders.” Lagarde urged countries to “de-escalate” trade frictions and fix global trading rules, rather than abandon them. “We certainly hope we don’t move in either direction of a trade war or a currency war. It will be detrimental on both accounts for all participants, Lagarde told a news conference during the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Indonesian resort island of Bali. “And there would also be lots of innocent bystanders.” China and the United States have slapped tit-for-tat tariffs over the past few months, rattling financial markets as investors worried the escalating trade war could knock global trade and investment. On recent yuan declines, Lagarde said they were mainly driven by the strength of the dollar, noting that it has not depreciated as much against a basket of currencies. “We’re seeing more and more countries, China included, let their currencies fluctuate,” Lagarde said. The yuan currency CNY=CFXS has faced strong selling pressure this year, losing over 8 percent between March and August at the height of market worries, though it has since pared losses as authorities stepped up support. A U.S. Treasury official on Monday repeated that the Trump administration was concerned about the yuan’s recent weakening as the department prepares a semi-annual report on currency manipulation due out next week. US President Donald Trump has accused China of deliberately manipulating its currency to gain a trade advantage, claims Beijing consistently rejected. “We have supported the move of China toward (currency) flexibility,” she said, adding that the IMF has encouraged Chinese authorities to “go down that path.” Lagarde urged China to follow through on the IMF’s recommendation to continue moving toward a system that allows the yuan to move flexibly She declined to comment on the recent market rout, but said U.S. equities and overall stock prices “in general have been extremely high.”
President Donald Trump again criticized the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates, calling it a “mistake” hours after the worst U.S. stock market sell-off since February. “The Fed has gone crazy,” he told reporters on Wednesday as he arrived in Pennsylvania for a campaign rally. “So you can say that well that’s a lot of safety actually, and it is a lot of safety, and it gives you a lot of margins, but I think the Fed has gone crazy.” White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said in a statement following the close of markets that the U.S. economy is “incredibly strong” despite the selloff, which analysts attributed in part to trade tensions with China. “It’s a correction that we’ve been waiting for for a long time,” Trump said. He frequently celebrates publicly when the stock market reaches new highs, pointing to the gains as affirmation for his economic policies. Trump was briefed on the market turmoil earlier in the day, a White House official said. He has repeatedly criticized the central bank for raising interest rates this year, decisions aimed at preventing the economy from overheating. “The fundamentals and future of the U.S. economy remain incredibly strong,” Sanders said in a statement. “President Trump’s economic policies are the reasons for these historic successes and they have created a solid base for continued growth.”
U.S. stocks tumbled Wednesday the most since February as fresh concern about the impact of the trade war with China roiled technology and industrial shares.
The broad selloff took the S&P 500 to the lowest in three months, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged as much as 836 points and the Nasdaq 100 Index tumbled more than 4 percent for its worst day in seven years. The sell-off came a day after the International Monetary Fund said the world economy is plateauing and cut its growth forecast for the first time in more than two years, blaming escalating trade tensions and stresses in emerging markets. Trump has slapped tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods this year, and Beijing has retaliated with levies $110 billion of American products. The IMF projections don’t take into account Trump’s threat to expand the tariffs to effectively all of the more than $500 billion in goods the U.S. bought from China last year. During an event earlier Wednesday amid the selloff, Trump and his top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said they believed the U.S. economy was strong. “It is doing well,” Trump said.
(Reuters) – Risks to the global financial system have risen over the past six months and could increase sharply if pressures in emerging markets escalate or global trade relations deteriorate further, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday. IMF Financial Counselor and Director for the Monetary and Capital Markets Department Tobias Adrian talks to media during Global Financial Stability Report press conference at the 2018 International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Bank Group Annual Meeting at Nusa Dua in Bali, Indonesia, October 10, 2018 in this photo taken by Antara Foto. Antara Foto/M Agung Rajasa/ via REUTERS The IMF, whose autumn meetings with the World Bank get under way on the Indonesian resort island of Bali this week, also noted that while the banking system has been shored up by regulators in the decade since the 2008 global financial crisis, easy financial conditions are contributing to a buildup of vulnerabilities such as high debt levels and “stretched” asset valuations.
New bank resolution regimes meant to avoid future bailouts are largely untested, the Fund said in its biannual global financial stability update.
“Near-term risks to global financial stability have increased somewhat,” the IMF said. “Overall, market participants appear complacent about the risk of a sharp tightening in financial conditions.” IMF capital markets director Tobias Adrian said potential shocks to the system could come in many forms, such as higher-than expected inflation that triggers a sharp jump in interest rates or a “disorderly” exit by Britain from the European Union. But the severity of the impact from such shocks will be determined by vulnerabilities including growing non-financial debt levels now exceeding 250 percent of GDP, a decline in underwriting standards outside the traditional banking sector and elevated asset prices that could drop sharply. “It’s this interaction between the buildup of vulnerabilities and the decline in asset prices that can generate adverse implications for macroeconomic activity,” Tobias told a news conference. The rapid build-up in debt in China in recent years also is a concern, although Chinese authorities have taken steps to rein in debt growth, he said. In the report, the IMF said economic growth appears to have peaked in some major economies while the gap between advanced countries and emerging markets was widening. The IMF on Tuesday cut its global growth forecasts due to an escalating U.S.-China trade war and growing financial strains on emerging markets The United States continues to grow strongly and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the seventh time in the last eight quarters at its latest policy meeting in September. U.S. stock markets are also at record highs. That contrasts with a slowing in the euro area and Japan. China’s economy is also showing signs of moderating and that could be exacerbated by its trade disputes with the United States, which has imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of imports from Beijing and is threatening duties on $267 billion more. The normalization of monetary policy in the United States as well as a stronger dollar and escalation in trade tensions has already begun to affect emerging market economies, the Fund said.
New IMF research shows emerging market countries excluding China could face debt portfolio outflows of up to $100 billion, a level last seen during the global financial crisis.
The Fund cited a number of other near-term risks to financial stability including the possibility of a “no-deal” Brexit or renewed fiscal policy concerns in some highly indebted euro area countries. It also urged global regulators to keep in place measures taken since the financial crisis and both heighten supervision of market liquidity and raise the amount of capital banks have to set aside to cushion any downturn. “The financial regulatory reform agenda should be completed, and a rollback of reforms should be avoided,” the Fund said. “To adequately address potential systemic risks, financial regulation and supervision should be used more proactively.”
(CNSNews.com) – UN Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Tuesday that she is resigning from her post, effective at the end of the year, saying she believes in term limits and giving someone else a chance to do the job. Appearing with President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday, Haley told reporters she will not run for president in 2020 but will campaign for Trump.
The president said he felt it was necessary to make the announcement in person instead of in a written statement, which is how it’s usually done.
“I wanted to do this because Nikki Haley, ambassador to the United Nations, has been very special to me. She’s done an incredible job. She’s a fantastic person, very importantly, but she also is somebody that gets it. She has been at the United Nations from the beginning with us, from the beginning and worked with us on the campaign,” he said. Trump praised Haley as “a very successful governor of South Carolina for eight years.” “And this is possibly even more intense with what’s going on in the world, and very dangerous and a lot of things, but she’s doing a fantastic job, and we’ve done a fantastic job together. We’ve solved a lot of problems, and we’re in the process of solving a lot of problems,” he said. Haley thanked Trump “for just allowing us to come out and talk to you this way.” “It has been an honor of a lifetime. I said I am such a lucky girl to have been able to leave the state that raised me and to serve a country I love so very much has really been a blessing, and I want to thank you for that, but I’m most excited,” she said. When asked whether the ambassador’s decision was personal because she’s been away from her family for so long, Haley said, “My family is very supportive, so no, there’s no personal reason.
“I think that it’s just very important for government officials to understand when it’s time to step aside, and I have given everything I’ve got these last eight years, and I do think that sometimes it’s good to rotate in other people who can put that same energy and power into it. So there really is, a lot of people are gonna want to say there’s a lot of reasons why I’m leaving,” she said.
Banks are going to bat for Democrats in the U.S. November midterm congressional elections as part of an ambitious strategy to rebuild the bipartisan support they enjoyed before the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Commercial banks have so far donated a total of $2.5 million to U.S. Senate Democrats in the 2018 election cycle, the largest sum since 2008, according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics. The backing of Democrats marks a shift for banks, which have kept a low profile in Washington since the crisis. Democrats had all but abandoned the financial industry in the aftermath, wary of appearing to do favors for Wall Street. But some moderate Senate Democrats in May backed the first easing of financial rules since the crisis and now are seeing a boost to their campaign coffers as the sector seeks to broaden its support on Capitol Hill. Of the 20 Senate candidates receiving the most money from banks during the 2018 cycle, 15 are Democrats, according to the Center for Responsive Politics data which tracks donations made by political action committees and individuals. When those seats were last up for election in 2012, only seven Democrats were in the top 20. Senators Heidi Heitkamp, Jon Tester and Joe Donnelly, moderates who helped pushed through the May legislation easing rules on community banks introduced by the 2010 Dodd Frank law, are the top three recipients, the data shows. Representatives for Senators Tester, Heitkamp and Donnelly did not respond to requests for comment. All three senators are locked in tight contests on Nov. 6. Analysts predict Democrats are likely to gain control of the House of Representatives but have a more narrow path to taking back the Senate. The other 12 Senate Democrats, some of whom also voted for the bank rule-easing bill, are also moderates. The exception is Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, whose position as ranking member on the Senate Banking Committee makes him an important stakeholder for the industry. The sector hopes boosting moderates will constrain the big bank-bashing wing of the Democratic Party, including Senator Elizabeth Warren, a likely presidential candidate in 2020, and Representative Maxine Waters, who is poised to chair the committee overseeing banks if Democrats win the House. Rebuilding broad bipartisan support will be challenging, consumer advocates say. Big banks continue to be a sensitive issue within the Democratic Party, which was bitterly divided over the May legislation, and among voters. The midterm elections mark the first time since 2012 that the banking industry has given more money to Senate Democrats than Republicans, according to center’s data, which is based on federal records released on Sept. 24. The sector has dished out $2.5 million to Senate Democrats and $1.8 million to Republicans this election cycle. By contrast, the industry gave $1.6 million to Senate Democrats and $5.2 million to Senate Republicans during the 2016 elections. The American Bankers Association, the top Washington bank lobby group, has contributed $83,000 to Senate Democratic candidates this cycle and is leading the industry’s push to regain bipartisan support, said its CEO Rob Nichols. Nichols, whose association has for the first time bought advertisements for 12 midterm candidates, including four Democrats, called enhancing the industry’s political capability “strategically important.” “This is rigorously bipartisan: if you support us, we want to support you,” he said. “This is not about playing party favorites. For decades, banking policy was bipartisan up until Dodd Frank, and we’re excited to see a return to this bipartisanship.” Industry officials hope the senators they support will back further legislation easing capital markets rules drawn up in a package that passed the House in July but has yet to pass the Senate. “Democrats being supported by the banks are generally viewed as moderate elements in a Senate that is being steadily stretched to its extreme ideologically,” said Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at Washington-based Compass Point Research & Trading.
He added that the industry is also anxious to ensure these senators are around to oversee a swift implementation of May’s new laws by the banking regulators.
Two-thirds of registered voters are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports regulating Wall Street and big banks when they talk about the economy, according to a September survey by The Harris Poll on behalf of Better Markets, which lobbies for tighter industry regulation. Ken Bentsen, the chief executive of bank lobby group the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) and a former Texas congressman, said it was unfortunate that the industry continued, in his view, to be seen “as a political piñata.” But he said Democratic views on the banking industry were not monolithic, and he saw opportunities to work with members of the party. “We’ll address it, however it turns out,” he said of next month’s election.
Sellers and brands may not like it, but Amazon is clearly doubling down on its private label business. This is where Amazon sells its own branded products, or products with third-party brands that are sold exclusively on Amazon. Private label brands benefit Amazon in many ways. They expand product selection while giving Amazon better profit margins. Supply chain management becomes easier too. It can also pressure bigger brands to cut prices on Amazon to stay competitive. Last week, CNBC reported that Amazon is more aggressively growing its private label business, having launched a new “accelerator” program for third-party sellers to become part of the “Amazon family of brands,” and a special feature that promotes its own brands at the bottom of competitor listings. That followed recent reports of Amazon having significantly ramped up the number of private label brands sold exclusively on its website. This comes at a time when sellers and brands are increasingly reliant on Amazon, where almost half of all online sales take place. More Amazon-owned brands mean they will have to directly compete with Amazon for consumer wallet share. Amazon’s effort to grow the number of private label brands is the clearest sign yet of how far it wants to go in its quest to become the “Everything Store.” But that’s stoking more fear and concern among sellers and brands that sell on Amazon’s website, as they have to go head-to-head with the e-commerce giant in a growing number of categories. “Amazon’s dominance of the e-commerce sphere has forced brands to adopt an Amazon-first strategy in order to remain relevant, but now those same brands are facing off against the retailer’s own products in the fight for the digital shelf,” Peter Andrews, director of insights at One Click Retail, wrote in report published this week. Amazon first got into the private label business in 2009, with commodity products such as batteries and USB cables. That slowly expanded to diapers and baby wipes, and now its catalog of exclusive brands ranges from toys and shoes to food and mattresses. The company currently has over 120 of them, according to a report published by TJI Research. That’s more than a nine-fold increase since early 2016, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey wrote in a note in June. The firm expects Amazon’s private-label business to generate $7.5 billion in sales in 2018 and $25 billion by 2022. “The goal of [Amazon’s] private-label products is to provide consumers a large selection as well as good prices and quality,” D.A. Davidson’s Tom Forte wrote in a note from June. Multiple sellers and brands told CNBC that they are concerned about Amazon’s move into the private label space. If big concerns to date have been counterfeits and reliance on Amazon as a platform, now they are worried that Amazon will be a bigger competitor in the market. Jeff Benzenberg, director of marketing at eRetailing, a Columbus, Ohio-based company that sells custom apparel, told CNBC that it just makes being a seller on Amazon much more difficult.
“It’s a huge fear,” he said. “We’re worried all the time that they’re about to enter our space in private label or whatever method they choose.”
Data shows Amazon can quickly become a formidable competitor if and when it decides to get serious about a certain category. According to One Click Retail, Amazon’s Mama Bear diapers now outsell other smaller brands like Honest Company and Bambo Nature, after lagging behind in sales earlier this year. The report said that Mama Bear’s sales jumped over 40 percent between the second and third quarters of this year, after Amazon ramped up its promotions, to reach an average sales of $200,000 per week. “Competition has never been so fierce,” One Click Retail wrote in the report. Forte at D.A. Davidson said pressure from Amazon’s private label brands can make competitors to purchase more ads on Amazon, so they could be found more easily on the marketplace. Amazon gives its private label brands more exposure across its site, listing them high in search results under a separate box titled “Top Rated from Our Brands.” But the bigger ambition may be in becoming a massive retail juggernaut that can handle everything from manufacturing and storage to storefront and delivery, according to Juozas Kaziukenas, who runs the e-commerce research firm Marketplace Pulse.
The dramatic unfolding of the Trump administration’s intensified offensive on China.
The administration’s clearest and most comprehensive broadside on China yet followed what one official called “thousands of hours” of study and planning. It will involve agencies across the U.S. government, from the Pentagon to the U.S. Trade Representative. The consequences will be both immediate and potentially generational for global economic and security matters. Senior officials in Beijing have increasingly worried that President Donald Trump, with his new tariffs on more than $200 billion of Chinese imports, wasn’t just acting as a deal-maker seeking greater leverage for market openings. They suspected a shift was afoot in Washington to more fundamentally address the Chinese challenge. What lies behind a series of administration statements and actions was a deepening conviction that Trump’s predecessors have done too little to respond to years of unfair Chinese trade practices, cyber transgressions, rapid military growth, growing technological prowess and the underlying strategic consequences of the so-called Belt and Road economic initiative, whose aggregate investment and loan figures are a multiple of the Marshall Plan. Four pieces of news this week underscore the far-reaching, multi-faceted nature of the Trump administration efforts aimed at China, with senior officials promising more in the weeks ahead.
- A landmark speech by Vice President Mike Pence at the Hudson Institute, calling out China as America’s foremost threat, ahead of Russia, due to both the scope and seriousness of its activities abroad and within the United States.
- An underreported aspect of the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that requires all three parties to inform the others if they begin trade talks with “non-market economies” (read China). Trump administration officials view it as a template for trade deals to follow.
- A leaked report that the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet has proposed a series of military operations during a single week in November to send a warning to China and to provide a deterrent to its Beijing’s regional military ambitions.
- On Friday, the Pentagon released the results of a yearlong look at vulnerabilities in America’s manufacturing and military industrial base. “China represents a significant and growing risk to the supply of materials deemed strategic and critical to U.S. national security,” including a “widely used and specialized metals, alloys and other materials, including rare earths and permanent magnets,” the ve to know … Beijing is employing a whole-of-government approach, using political, economic and military tools, as well as propaganda, to advance its influence and benefit its interests in the United States. China is also applying this power in more proactive ways than ever before, to exert influence and interfere in the domestic policy and politics of our country.”
“Most have abandoned the hope that Chinese economic growth would bring with it democratic change, a greater embrace of individual rights and thus greater common cause with the U.S.”
Graham Allison of Harvard popularized the concept of “Thucydides Trap,” namely that when one great power displaces another, war is most often the result. He argued this week that to avoid that outcome this time around the U.S. and China will require the kind of “extreme imagination” that has failed them thus far.
The Trump administration’s China shift is one of its boldest moves yet. Far more difficult will be to forge a strategy that manages the competition without conflict and deploys “extreme imagination” to create a world order that defends U.S. interests and embraces a risen China.
Former Secretary of State Colin Powell spoke out against President Donald Trump in an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Sunday, blasting his anti-press rhetoric, retreat from the world stage, and his insults of U.S. allies. Zakaria asked Powell and his other guest, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, about American foreign policy and whether the country is still leading the rest of the world by example. Powell, a Republican who has maintained a low profile during the Trump administration, called out “what we are not doing as the United States of America.” “What are we doing? We’re walking away from agreements, we’re walking away from alliances,” Powell said. He noted that Trump insulted U.S. allies at the NATO summit. After Powell invoked the violence at Charlottesville, Zakaria asked: “Do you think this president can be a moral leader for the world?” “I don’t know that he can do that,” Powell said. “Because right now that is not the way he is acting.” Powell said that his favorite three words in the Constitution are “we the people.” “Recently, it has become ‘me the president’ as opposed to ‘we the people,’” he said. “And you see things that should not be happening,” Powell continued. “How can a president of the United States get up and say that the media is the enemy of Americans? Hasn’t he read the First Amendment? You are not supposed to like everything the press says, or what anyone says… that’s why we have a First Amendment, to protect that kind of speech.” “I hope the president can come to the realization that he should really stop insulting people,” Powell said. “I used this two years ago when I said I could not vote for him in the 2016 election. Why? He insulted everybody. He insulted African-Americans. He insulted women. He insulted immigrants. He insulted our best friends around the world. All of his fellow candidates up on the stage during the debates. I don’t think that’s what should be coming out of a president of the United States. But I don’t see anything that’s changed in the last two years.” Albright added that Trump’s rhetoric about America being a victim is “so not true.”
“The world is watching,” Powell said. “They cannot believe we’re doing things like separating mothers and children who are trying to get across the border from south of our border. They can’t believe we’re making such an effort to cease immigration coming into the country. It’s what’s kept us alive!” “The world is watching and wondering, why are we pulling away from all the things we helped create?” he said. “I don’t think that’s going to create a better America.”
LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s top stock index fell more than 1 percent on Friday, posting its biggest weekly drop in six months, as a strong U.S. jobs report raised concerns of a widening selloff in global markets. The export-oriented FTSE 100 index .FTSE, down 1.3 percent, was hurt also by a stronger pound. The British currency rallied by a quarter of a percent after European Union Brexit negotiators said that a divorce deal with Britain was very close. Strong U.S. data and confident remarks by U.S. policymakers had fuelled a surge in U.S. Treasury yields which had spilled over into broader global stock markets as investors worried that policymakers may tighten policy more than expected. “It is a strong jobs report, make no mistake,” said Kenneth Broux, an FX strategist at Societe Generale in London. An unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was what the Fed had forecasted for the fourth quarter but we have got there sooner.” U.S. job growth slowed in September as Hurricane Florence depressed restaurant and retail payrolls, but the unemployment rate fell to near 49-year lows of 3.7 percent, indicating more tightening in labour market conditions. The main index closed down 1.3 percent at 7,318 points and is has fallen 2.5 percent on the week, its biggest weekly fall since the week of March. 21. The sell-off in U.S. Treasuries – 10-year bond yields are up 15 basis points this week and set for the biggest weekly rise in eight months — rippled into bond markets in Europe and Britain and pushed stock markets around the world lower.
Miners were the main drags on the index with Anglo American (AAL.L) and Rio Tinto (RIO.L) leading losses. The mid-cap index .FTMC was down 0.7 percent and the small-cap index FTSC> was down 0.4.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Crude futures steadied on Friday after climbing to four-year highs earlier this week, and both Brent and U.S. crude marked weekly gains ahead of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures rose 1 cent to settle at $74.34 a barrel.
Global benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 futures for December delivery fell 42 cents to settle at $84.16 a barrel. On Wednesday, Brent hit its highest price since late 2014, at $86.74.
“They’re taking a pause after yesterday’s sell-off,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. WTI’s weekly gain was about 1.3 percent; Brent’s was around 1.4 percent. Price gains this week were limited by Saudi Arabia and Russia’s saying they would raise output to at least partly make up for expected disruptions from Iran, OPEC’s No. 3 producer, due to the U.S. sanctions that take effect on Nov. 4. Oil prices are up 15-20 since mid-August, at their highest levels since late 2014. Washington wants governments and companies around the world to stop buying Iranian oil to pressure Tehran into renegotiating a nuclear deal. Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman insisted the kingdom is fulfilling promises to make up for lost Iranian crude supplies, Bloomberg reported. Saudi Arabia is now pumping about 10.7 million barrels per day (bpd) and can add a further 1.3 million “if the market needs that,” he said. India will buy 9 million barrels of Iranian oil in November, two industry sources said, indicating that the world’s third-biggest oil importer will keep purchasing crude from the Islamic republic. Many analysts said they expected Iranian exports to drop by around 1 million barrels per day. U.S. bank Jefferies said there was enough oil to meet demand, but “global spare capacity is dwindling to the lowest level that we can document.” S&P Global Platts sees prices strengthening “a little” toward the end of the year, said Chris Midgely, the company’s global director of analytics, at the S&P Global Platts Analytics annual summit. Fundamentals indicate a price in the high $70s for Brent, but the reality is seen above that, he said. Prices are then likely to weaken in the first two quarters of 2019 before strengthening about $4 to $5 a barrel in the second half of the year as the market anticipates a shipping fuel regulation that takes effect in 2020. U.S. drillers cut two oil rigs in the week to Oct. 5, General Electric Co’s (GE.N) Baker Hughes energy services firm said RIG-OL-USA-BHI. Rising costs and pipeline bottlenecks in the nation’s largest oil field have hindered new drilling since June. Hedge funds cut their combined futures and options position in New York and London by 13,459 contracts to 333,109 in the week to Oct. 2, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said.
Technology stocks took another leg down Friday, dragging the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite to its worst week since early spring. Investors sold many of the year’s best performing stocks, moving into so-called safety stocks such as utilities. The sentiment shift occurred as the stock market’s momentum appeared to stall in the face of suddenly higher long-term government bond yields. The Nasdaq Composite fell 91.06, or 1.2%, to 7788.45. For the week, the index is off 3%, its worst performance since the week ended March 23. Among big tech stocks, Apple slumped $3.70, or 1.6%, to $224.29 while Netflix fell 12.30, or 3.4%, to 351.35. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 180.43 points, or 0.7%, to 26447.05, while the S&P 500 dropped 16.04 points, or 0.6%, to 2885.57. “It doesn’t feel like the bottom yet,” said Justin Wiggs, managing director in equity trading at Stifel Nicolaus, adding that he expects to see a “sloppy” Monday for stocks, too. As Treasury yields have risen to multiyear highs, and as solid economic data puts the Federal Reserve on track for more short-term rate increases in coming months, the rising yields on bonds have some investors questioning the value of their stockholdings relative to the perceived safety of their bondholdings. The result has been two days in a row of big drops in the stock market. And while many analysts and traders said they expect stocks will end the year higher, they said they expect more swings similar to Thursday’s and Friday’s moves in the final three months of the year. “We’re going to be seeing more volatility,” said Tracie McMillion, head of Global Asset Allocation at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “The market is trying to assess: How do you discount stock prices when interest rates are going up?” Shares of technology companies in the S&P 500, which have been the best performers in 2018 as investors chased growth, slumped 1.3%. “Tech is definitely pulling back this week, but given the backdrop of strong earnings, it’s just a pullback after a run-up earlier this year, not a reversal,” said Jeff James, portfolio manager at Driehaus Capital Management, who added that he had reduced his tech exposure recently. In other stock markets, the Stoxx Europe 600 declined 0.9%, putting its weekly losses at 1.8%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.8% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.2%.
(CNN)America’s most senior naval officer in Europe, Adm. James Foggo, said Friday that he was “concerned” about some of Russia’s newer and more advanced fleet of submarines. “Russia is not 10 feet tall but they do have assets that keep me vigilant, concerned. One of them is in the undersea domain,” Foggo, the commander of US Naval Forces Europe, told reporters at the Pentagon. While Foggo said Russia’s surface fleet, including its aging aircraft carrier, posed little threat — saying Moscow did “not have a robust capital ship capability” — he did express concerns about Russian advancements in its development of submarines and cruise missiles. “We’ve seen creation of new classes of all sorts of submarines and ships. I’m more concerned with submarine warfare,” Foggo said earlier on Friday while addressing the Atlantic Council in Washington. “Russians have produced the new Dolgorukiy-class submarine. They’ve produced the Severodvinsk-class submarine. They’ve produced the new Kilo hybrid-class submarines,” Foggo told reporters at the Pentagon. He said six of the Kilo-class subs were either “operating in the Black Sea or the eastern Mediterranean,” where “they’re firing the Kalibr missile,” a Russian-made cruise missile that he called “very capable,” saying it could reach “any one of the capitals of Europe.” “That’s a concern to me, and it’s a concern to my NATO partners and friends. So we should know where they are at all times,” he added, advocating for increased US and allied investment in anti-submarine warfare capabilities. Foggo, who is also the commander of NATO’s Allied Joint Force Command-Naples, also discussed the upcoming NATO exercise Trident Juncture, which is due to begin October 25 and will involve some 45,000 troops from all NATO members as well as Sweden and Finland. The exercise, which Foggo called NATO’s largest since 2002, will take place in Norway and the surrounding areas of the North Atlantic and the Baltic Sea. It will include 150 aircraft, 60 ships and up to 10,000 vehicles. Foggo said Russia had been invited to observe the military exercise in accordance with international agreements and that the exercise would send a message of “deterrence” to any would-be adversary.
BERLIN (Reuters) – A no-deal Brexit would not be good for Britain, Europe or Germany, a German government spokesman said on Friday, adding that Chancellor Angela Merkel sees that close cooperation with Britain will be possible in some areas. “Britain exiting without an agreement would not be in the interests of Britain, Europe or Germany,” spokesman Steffen Seibert told a government news conference, adding that the aim was to make “maximum progress” before the next EU summit.
ROME (Reuters) – The Italian government on Thursday dismissed concerns that the European Commission would reject its plan to raise deficit spending next year and signaled that it would not backtrack, even under market pressure. After a selloff hit Italian bonds on Tuesday, the government made up of the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and the right-wing League on Wednesday watered down its original plan to keep its deficit steady at 2.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020-21. But it stuck to its 2.4 percent target for next year, and on Thursday government officials said they had no plans to make further revisions to that goal, which is three times more than one set out by the previous government. Speaking about the multi-year budget targets that must be reviewed by Brussels by mid-month, Deputy Economy Minister Massimo Garavaglia said on Thursday: “(Either) it passes or it doesn’t, but this isn’t the problem. We’re more focused on what is happening in the markets.” Garavaglia also said the government’s GDP growth forecast for next year would be 1.6 percent, much higher than the 1.2 percent median projection of 51 analysts polled by Reuters last month. Economy Minister Giovanni Tria later said in a letter to the European Commission that the growth forecasts had actually been set at 1.5 percent in 2019, 1.6 percent in 2020 and 1.4 percent in 2021. He called for an “open and constructive dialogue” with the Commission over the budget plan. The gap between Italy’s benchmark 10-year bond yields and their safer German equivalent on Tuesday widened to more than 300 basis points, its widest since May, on concerns about Italy’s plans. On Thursday, the spread had narrowed to 278 basis points. League leader Matteo Salvini, speaking on RAI state radio, said that next year’s deficit spending was needed to spark growth and create jobs, and added that the government would not back down even if the spread widened to 400 basis points. “This is a budget that looks to the future, and we will absolutely not go backwards,” Salvini said. The government’s confident tone came as la Repubblica newspaper reported that the commission had already sent Italian officials an informal note saying it would reject next year’s spending plans. Sources close to economic commissioners in Brussels said the report was “unfounded”. The commission must formally give its opinion on the budget forecasts by the end of the month. Separately, deputy prime minister and 5-Star leader Luigi Di Maio denied an article in Il Fatto Quotidiano saying the government was seeking a cabinet reshuffle, mainly to replace Economy Minister Giovanni Tria in December or January. Di Maio also seemed unfazed by concern expressed earlier this week by commissioners and EU allies over the deficit spending plans. “We have brought home the people’s budget, and we’re going to forge ahead more determined than before,” Di Maio said in an interview with Radio Radicale. “Now we can start a serious and healthy discussion with the European Commission to reach a positive conclusion.”
LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices rose as traders anticipated a tighter market due to U.S. sanctions on Iran’s crude exports. Benchmark Brent crude oil was up 30 cents a barrel at $84.88 by 0750 GMT. On Thursday, Brent fell by $1.34 a barrel or 1.6 percent. The contract was on course for a gain of around 2.6 percent for the week. Both crude benchmarks retreated on Thursday following news of a rise in U.S. oil inventories and after Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would raise output to at least partly make up for expected disruptions from Iran. But the pull-back did little to dent two months of rises that have added 15-20 percent to oil prices since the middle of August as impending U.S. sanctions on Tehran restrict Iranian crude oil exports. Washington wants governments and companies around the world to stop buying Iranian oil from Nov. 4 to put pressure on Tehran to renegotiate a nuclear deal. It is not clear exactly how much impact the sanctions are having on supply but many analysts say they expect Iranian exports to drop by around 1 million barrels per day (bpd). “Iranian exports could fall below 1 million bpd in November,” U.S. bank Jefferies said. “It now appears that only China and Turkey may be willing to risk U.S. retaliation by transacting with Iran.” The investment bank said there was enough oil to meet demand, but “global spare capacity is dwindling to the lowest level that we can document … meaning any further supply disruptions would be difficult for the market to manage – and could lead to spiking crude oil prices”. Speculators have accumulated bullish long positions betting on a further rise in prices amounting to almost 1.2 billion barrels of oil. Meanwhile, the number of short positions in the six biggest oil futures and options contracts has fallen to the lowest level since before 2013. But Goldman Sachs says the uptrend may not last. “While upside price risks will prevail for now, fundamental data outside of Iran has not turned bullish in our view,” Goldman said in a note to clients. “We expect fundamentals to gradually become binding by early 2019 as new spare capacity comes online … pointing to the global market eventually returning into a modest surplus in early 2019.”
Hundreds of Facebook Inc. employees have expressed outrage about a top global policy executive’s decision to support Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and appear at his hearing last week, people familiar with the matter said. Employees raised the question directly to Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg during his weekly question-and-answer session last Friday, the people said. Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg also weighed in on the controversy on Friday in an internal discussion thread that has so far drawn hundreds of comments, many of which were critical, according to people who reviewed the posts. The debate began shortly after an image of Joel Kaplan, Facebook’s head of global policy, surfaced in the middle of Judge Kavanaugh’s lengthy hearing last Thursday, people familiar with the company said. His appearance quickly became an internal referendum on how Facebook’s top executives felt about the #MeToo movement, Trump-era politics and freedom of speech and expression, the people said. Mr. Zuckerberg said last Friday he wouldn’t have made the same decision but the appearance didn’t violate Facebook policies and that Mr. Kaplan has long been close friends with Judge Kavanaugh. Following an FBI investigation into allegations against Judge Brett Kavanaugh, WSJ’s Shelby Holliday looks at key Senators to watch ahead of a confirmation vote. Photo: Getty Images The controversy hasn’t died down internally. Senior Facebook executives, including Mr. Zuckerberg and Ms. Sandberg, are planning to hold a town hall meeting Friday to address employee concerns about Mr. Kaplan’s decision, people close to Facebook say. Mr. Kaplan, who is based in Washington, D.C., will participate as well, the people said. “This fire has been burning for a full week now,” said one employee. Mr. Kaplan’s appearance came in the midst of a difficult week for the company. Last Monday, the co-founders of Instagram abruptly resigned after clashing with Mr. Zuckerberg on strategy. Friday, the company disclosed its largest-ever security breach.
The attack by Chinese spies reached almost 30 U.S. companies, including Amazon and Apple, by compromising America’s technology supply chain, according to extensive interviews with government and corporate sources. In 2015, Amazon.com Inc. began quietly evaluating a startup called Elemental Technologies, a potential acquisition to help with a major expansion of its streaming video service, known today as Amazon Prime Video. Based in Portland, Ore., Elemental made software for compressing massive video files and formatting them for different devices. Its technology had helped stream the Olympic Games online, communicate with the International Space Station, and funnel drone footage to the Central Intelligence Agency. Elemental’s national security contracts weren’t the main reason for the proposed acquisition, but they fit nicely with Amazon’s government businesses, such as the highly secure cloud that Amazon Web Services (AWS) was building for the CIA.
The New York state tax department said Tuesday it is investigating reports that President Donald Trump helped his parents dodge millions of dollars in taxes and received far more money from his father’s real estate empire than he has claimed in the past. Earlier, The New York Times said its own exhaustive probe of a vast trove of tax returns and confidential records showed Trump had engaged in suspect tax tactics, including “outright fraud” that greatly inflated the funds he received from his parents. Trump has stated on numerous occasions that he received little help from his father, New York property developer Fred Trump, in building his fortune. “The Tax Department is reviewing the allegations in the NYT article and is vigorously pursuing all appropriate avenues of investigation,” New York state Taxation and Financing spokesman James Gazzale told AFP. The Times said Trump received the equivalent of $413 million in today’s dollars from his father’s real estate activities — having earned $200,000 a year in today’s dollars by age three. By age eight, he was already a millionaire. Trump was receiving the equivalent of $1 million a year from his father shortly after his college graduation, it added, noting that the funds grew to more than $5 million per year when he was in his 40s and 50s. The Times said the bulk of the funds owed to tax evasion tactics that Trump helped devise, including a “sham corporation” he and his siblings created to hide millions of dollars in gifts from their parents. There were also millions of dollars in improper tax deductions and Trump helped further reduce his parents’ tax bill by undervaluing their real estate holdings by hundreds of millions of dollars on tax returns, according to the Times. The newspaper said Trump’s parents, Fred and Mary Trump, who died respectively in 1999 and 2000, transferred more than $1 billion in wealth to their five children. This could have produced a tax bill of at least $550 million but the Trumps paid a total of just $52.2 million, the Times said, citing tax records. One of Trump’s lawyers, Charles Harder, decried the newspaper’s allegations as “100 percent false, and highly defamatory.” “There was no fraud or tax evasion by anyone. The facts upon which The Times bases its false allegations are extremely inaccurate,” he added. “President Trump had virtually no involvement whatsoever with these matters.” Harder insisted the matter was mostly handled by other relatives who relied “entirely” upon licensed professionals to “ensure full compliance with the law.” The White House, meanwhile said that “Many decades ago, the IRS reviewed and signed off on these transactions.” Spokeswoman Sarah Sanders instead shifted blame onto the Times itself, saying “Perhaps another apology from The New York Times, like the one they had to issue after they got the 2016 election so embarrassingly wrong, is in order.” The Times said Trump’s tax-hating father used various methods to funnel his wealth to his children and shield it from the Internal Revenue Service, some of which tax experts said was improper or possibly illegal. Among the tactics, Fred Trump gave ownership of most of his real estate empire to his children a year and a half before his death.The properties were valued at just $41.4 million although they were sold off over the next decade for more than 16 times that amount, it said. The Times said Trump got a cut of $177.3 million, or $236.2 million in today’s dollars, from the sale. Breaking with the practice of past presidents, Trump has refused so far to release his tax returns. Citing tax experts, the Times said Trump was unlikely to face criminal prosecution for helping his parents evade taxes but could face civil fines for tax fraud if the matter is pursued by the authorities.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar rose to its highest in six weeks on Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the U.S. economy is “remarkably positive” and spoke of the need to continue raising interest rates. Hawkish Fed speakers have helped elevate the greenback this week, after the Fed last Wednesday raised rates as expected and said it foresees another rate hike in December, three more next year and one in 2020. Powell on Wednesday continued to talk up U.S. economic strength a day after hailing a “remarkably positive outlook” for the U.S. economy that he feels is on the verge of a “historically rare” era of ultra-low unemployment and tame prices. Data on Wednesday supported the view that the U.S. economy is in strong shape. Services sector activity raced to a 21-year high in September and companies boosted hiring, signs of enduring strength at the end of the third quarter. The dollar is outperforming as U.S. growth remains strong while economic data in other large economies including the euro zone has come in below expectations. “One of the reasons we think why the dollar has been so bid in the last several months has been because the U.S. economy has been performing reasonably well, whereas we’ve seen a material slowdown in terms of data coming out of the euro zone and Japan and other large economies,” said Rai. The euro is also being hurt by uncertainty surrounding Italy’s debt, fiscal plans and future ties with the rest of Europe, which has unnerved markets and exacerbated tensions with other euro zone leaders. The euro has been testing key technical support at $1.1510-$1.1508, which was a temporary low set in June. If the euro zone single currency sustains its break below this level it may next test the $1.13 area, which was the one-year low reached in August.
Auto stocks have hit the skids.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said his American counterpart’s Iran sanctions are largely to blame for current high oil prices. “President Trump considers that the price is high; he’s partly right, but let’s be honest,” Putin said at the Russian Energy Week conference in Moscow on Wednesday. “Donald, if you want to find the culprit for the rise in prices, you need to look in the mirror.” The Russian leader pushed back against escalating criticism of OPEC and its allies, which Trump has blamed for Brent crude’s rise to a four-year high near $85 a barrel. Still, Putin said his country has already boosted output and has the capacity to add another 200,000 to 300,000 barrels to the market. Saudi Arabia, Russia’s closest ally within the oil-producers’ group, earlier showed signs of bowing to Trump’s pressure. The kingdom has “significantly” raised production to a near-record level of 10.7 million barrels a day, Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih told reporters in the Moscow. Russia’s cooperation with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries successfully restored the oil market to balance and a good price range of $65 to $75 a barrel, Putin said. Current prices are “largely the result of the current U.S. administration — these expectations of sanctions against Iran, the political problems in Venezuela,” Putin said. “Look at what’s happening in Libya. The state is destroyed. It’s the result of irresponsible policies which have a direct impact on the world economy.”
LONDON (Reuters) – European shares rose and Italian bonds rallied on Wednesday as some of the worries that have rippled across markets this week were soothed by signs Rome was amenable to cutting budget deficits and debt in coming years. While the euro ceded some earlier gains against the dollar to trade flat on the day, the positive sentiment rippled across the Atlantic where Wall Street looks set for a stronger session. Markets were lifted on Wednesday by a report in the Milan daily Corriere della Serra – later confirmed to Reuters by an Italian government source – that said the deficit would fall to 2.2 percent of gross domestic product in 2020 and to 2 percent in 2021, from the 2.4 percent earlier outlined. That relieves some fears that Italy’s decision to expand budget deficits well beyond what was agreed by a previous government would deepen its debt problems and stoke conflict with the European Union. “That the Italian government is trying to appease its EU partners can be seen as a step in the right direction and therefore justifies some euro-positive reaction,” Thu Lan Nguyen, a FX strategist at Commerzbank, said. While U.S. President Donald Trump agreed a new trade pact with Mexico and Canada, a disputed clause in the trilateral agreement, forbidding similar deals with “non-market” countries, was seen as raising risks for Sino-U.S. talks.
DUBLIN (Reuters) – Ryanair (RYA.I) cut its forecast for full-year profit by 12 percent on Monday and said worse may be to come if recent coordinated strikes across Europe continue to hit traffic and bookings. Europe’s largest low-cost carrier has struggled with labour relations since it bowed to pressure to recognise trade unions for the first time last December. Industrial unrest has escalated in recent months as it makes slow progress in talks with some unions. Shares in Ryanair, which is also counting the cost of stubbornly high fuel prices, fell by as much as 10 percent, and the warning reverberated around the sector, with rivals Lufthansa (LHAG.DE), Air France KLM (AIRF.PA) and easyJet (EZJ.L) down by 0.5-3.3 percent. The Irish airline now expects profit for the year, excluding start up losses in Laudamotion, to come in at 1.10-1.20 billion euros ($2.66 billion), compared with its prior forecast of 1.25-1.35 billion euros. That would represent a 17 to 24 percent fall from the record 1.45 billion euros profit after tax booked in its most recent financial year to March 31. It added that it could not rule out further disruption, which may require full-year forecasts to be lowered again and further cuts to its loss-making winter capacity. While Ryanair said it was able to manage initial smaller strikes, two coordinated walkouts since August in Portugal, Germany, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands hit passenger numbers, last minute bookings, yields and forward air fares. Those strikes, which also spread to some staff in Sweden and Italy, disrupted the plans of more than 100,000 customers. Quoting a call management held with analysts on Monday, Barclays said Ryanair was working to resolve all union deals in the next 3-5 months. Ryanair shares fall after profit warning – reut.rs/2ItN1lZ
CUSTOMER CONFIDENCE DENTED
Ryanair said progress in reaching collective labour agreements with staff in other major markets of Ireland, Britain and Italy have not been repeated in the five other EU countries due to what it called “interference” in negotiations. “Customer confidence, forward bookings and Q3 fares have been affected, most notably over the October school mid-terms and Christmas in those five countries,” Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary said in a statement. Goodbody Stockbrokers analyst Mark Simpson said the warning came as a surprise given that O’Leary had said there was no change to guidance just two weeks ago. Analysts at Bernstein said the cut was the latest indication that the “low cost wins, legacy loses” story may be coming to an end after budget rival easyJet gave a cautious outlook for next year on Friday, despite benefiting from Ryanair’s woes. Ryanair said fares in its second quarter to end-September had fallen by around 3 percent from a 1 percent dip forecast previously, and said that it now expects fares in the second half to fall 2 percent.
Ryanair warned last week that the strikes were damaging business just as oil prices rose strongly and said on Monday that its unhedged fuel costs have jumped as oil prices rise to $82 a barrel, hitting 10 percent of volumes for its current financial year and the entire fuel bill of Austria’s Laudamotion, which it agreed to buy this year. Goodbody therefore estimated that every 1 percent of jet fuel price increase would take 3.5 percent off Ryanair’s full year 2020 forecast but only 2 percent off easyJet’s before any resulting adjustments to capacity growth or pricing. To cope with the lower fares, higher oil prices and strike costs, Ryanair trimmed its winter capacity by 1 percent, removing aircraft from its Eindhoven, Bremen and Niederrhein bases which will result in some more flight cancellations. It said it would seek to minimise job losses by offering pilots vacancies elsewhere and exploring unpaid leave and other options for cabin crew. Shares in Ryanair were 8.9 percent lower at 11.94 euros by 1032 GMT, their lowest level in almost two years, having fallen 27 percent since the industrial action ramped up in mid-July.
MIDLAND, Texas (Reuters) – The west Texas drillers that drove the shale revolution have overwhelmed the region’s infrastructure with oil production -driving up costs, depressing regional oil prices and slowing the pace of growth. The U.S. government continues to forecast the country’s oil output rising to fresh record. But competition for limited resources in Texas is making it harder for shale producers to turn a profit and encouraging some to invest elsewhere. Texas is home to the Permian Basin, the largest U.S. oil field and the center of the country’s shale industry. In the past three years, production from the Permian has risen a whopping 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to 3.43 million bpd.All that oil means pipelines from the shale patch are full, so producers are paying more to transport oil on trucks and rail cars. Shortages of labor, water and even the fuel used in fracking are driving up production costs. At the same time, Permian producers are getting less for their oil, which in August traded as much as $17 a barrel below the U.S. crude benchmark. Sellers have to offer the discount to compensate for the higher transport costs. “We’re our own worst enemy,” said Ross Craft, chief executive of Approach Resources, a small west Texas oil producer which last year averaged about 11,600 barrels of oil equivalent daily output.
“We can drill, bring these wells on so quickly that we basically outpace the market. It is going to take a little bit of time,” he said, for the infrastructure to catch up to producers. Approach Resources is leaving some wells uncompleted. That means the firm drills the wells, but does not fracture the rock to produce the oil. Other shale producers are also leaving the oil in the ground, waiting for higher prices to make the drilling more profitable.
The number of uncompleted wells in the Permian jumped by 80 percent to 3,630 in August compared with a year earlier, according to U.S. Energy Department data. For the rest of the United States, uncompleted wells are up 10 percent from the same period a year ago.
Some companies are reducing the scope of their operations in the Permian. ConocoPhillips (COP.N) and Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO.O) each moved a Permian drilling rig to another oilfield, and Conoco idled a second, the companies have said. Noble Energy (NBL.N) also has cut back on its well completions and said it is moving some drilling resources to Colorado. Global Drilling Partners, a drilling contractor based in the Woodlands near Houston, was set to drill seven wells with a Permian operator this July, but that has dropped to two wells starting in December due to lack of pipeline takeaway, said John Hopkins, a managing partner at the company. “There will be a shift out of West Texas temporarily until they can solve their midstream problems,” he said. Companies are looking to boost their drilling in other fields in Texas, Colorado and Oklahoma, he said. Suppliers including sand and rail companies say they are hedging their bets by expanding elsewhere.
Elon Musk’s settlement of a securities-fraud case has removed a cloud over the company and its leader. But another remains: how its electric-car production is measuring up against Mr. Musk’s ambitious forecasts, a matter that a federal regulator is still investigating. One group of internet sleuths thinks it has found clues in plain sight, pointing to lots and garages in California, New Jersey, Arizona and other states where Tesla cars have been found parked in large numbers. The group’s efforts to document those sites could shed light on the delivery troubles that the Tesla chief has acknowledged, and reveal whether demand for the company’s cars is as high as he has suggested. Since July, Tesla has been parking anywhere from a couple of dozen to a few hundred cars at a lot in Burbank, Calif. In Lathrop, 70 miles east of San Francisco, Tesla has as many as 400 cars at an industrial site. A similar number turned up outside an industrial building nearby. At times cars have been seen entering and leaving the building, suggesting it may be a collection point or repair center. Hundreds more have been found in Antioch, northeast of San Francisco. On Thursday, a batch of about 100 Model 3s turned up in Bellevue, Wash. Smaller collections have surfaced in Chicago, Dallas, Las Vegas and Salt Lake City. The parked vehicles were discovered over the last two months by the amateur detectives, who in at least some cases are also investors betting that Tesla’s share price will fall. Some have flown drones over the parking lots to take pictures of the cars. At least one has access to a plane and shoots high-resolution photographs from the air. They post the photos on Twitter and have taken to calling themselves the Shorty Air Force. The sleuths — including three interviewed for this article, who asked not to be identified — say they feel Mr. Musk has not been candid about the company’s situation, particularly its sales. A Tesla spokesman, Dave Arnold, said by email that the large lots of vehicles were “logistics transit hubs” and added, “Anyone observing those lots will see a change from one day to the next.” (He said Monday that the cars in Bellevue were awaiting delivery. Photos posted online on Sunday show hoods open, possibly indicating maintenance work.)
Do the cars simply reflect a delivery problem?
Mr. Musk recently acknowledged that the company was having difficulty shipping cars to customers, saying Tesla was in “delivery logistics hell.”
Sorry, we’ve gone from production hell to delivery logistics hell, but this problem is far more tractable. We’re making rapid progress. Should be solved shortly.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 17, 2018
He attributed the problem to a shortage of trucks to haul cars around the country. “That’s total nonsense,” said Mark B. Spiegel, a managing partner at Stanphyl Capital, which has a large position shorting Tesla. He is a vocal critic of the company and Mr. Musk on Twitter. “A quick search would reveal plenty of car hauler capacity. Perhaps Tesla doesn’t have the cash to pay for them.” The Auto Haulers Association of America is not aware of any shortage of car haulers, nor of any other automakers that are having trouble shipping new vehicles. “There’s quite a few carrier companies in California,” said Guy Young, the association’s general manager. A worrisome problem is Tesla built these cars and now doesn’t have customers willing to take them. Mr. Musk had long promised that the Model 3 would be available for as little as $35,000. But the least costly version available now starts at $49,000, and the price nears $60,000 if a customer wants the Autopilot driver-assistance software and other options.The company has said that more than 400,000 customers are waiting to buy Model 3 sedans, and that each paid a $1,000 deposit. Many who put down deposits may be waiting for the more affordable base model. Holding inventory is itself an issue for Tesla. The company has reported that it is selling almost all of the cars it is making. Each quarter, the number produced was close to the number delivered or in transit. Brian Johnson, an analyst at Barclays Capital who follows Tesla, said he suspected that the company had a mismatch between inventory and demand — that it had built more rear-wheel drive Model 3s than it could sell. He noted that Tesla was telling customers that it could deliver rear-wheel drive models in four weeks but that all-wheel-drive and pricier versions require waits of four to 12 months. “That suggests there is unmatched rear-wheel-drive inventory,” he said. In some cases, cars have been marked — with a bar-coded sticker or with grease pencil on the windshield — to indicate that they are inventory vehicles, meaning they have no customers awaiting them. Some markings indicate repairs required before the cars can be sold, like scratches, dents or components that don’t work.
The thing is, one of the judge’s friends provided NBC with texts apparently showing that he knew about the claim before that, and tried to recruit people to defend him. This report has some lawyers and prominent pundits suggesting this constitutes witness tampering.
lol witness tamperinghttps://t.co/CU8HCA7WH7
— T. Greg Doucette (@greg_doucette) October 1, 2018
Based on these facts, we can’t say that Kavanaugh has engaged in witness tampering. We *can* say that it’s grossly inappropriate for a sitting judge to contact potential witnesses against him.
AND, it sure seems like Kavanaugh lied (again) under oath to the Senate. https://t.co/MmLzaBhJxs
— Elie Mystal (@ElieNYC) October 1, 2018
A couple of days ago, I told someone I thought Kavanaugh was too smart to be reaching out to potential witnesses himself. It looks like I was wrong. From @LACaldwellDC and @HeidiPrzybyla https://t.co/McATlSjrmn
— Jonathan Allen (@jonallendc) October 1, 2018
7/ Here is the transcript. Kavanaugh tells a bald-faced lie to @senorrinhatch @OrrinHatch.
And now we are also talking about witness tampering.https://t.co/sum8dO1M1r
— Jed Shugerman (@jedshug) October 2, 2018
“And now we are also talking about witness tampering,” wrote Fordham law professor Jed Shugerman, an expert on American courts. Ramirez, one of Kavanaugh’s classmates at Yale, said he drunkenly stuck his penis at her during a party decades ago. The texts in the NBC story were provided by Kerry Berchem, a partner at the Akin Gump law firm. In the messages, Karen Yarasavage, another Kavanaugh friend, told her that “Brett” asked her to deny Ramirez’s allegation on the record. She also wrote about communicating with “Brett’s guy.” Yarasavage declined to speak to NBC, but Bechem provided a statement. “I understand that President Trump and the U.S. Senate have ordered an FBI investigation into certain allegations of sexual misconduct by the nominee Brett Kavanaugh,” she wrote. “I have no direct or indirect knowledge about any of the allegations against him. However, I am in receipt of text messages from a mutual friend of both Debbie and mine that raise questions related to the allegations. I have not drawn any conclusions as to what the texts may mean or may not mean but I do believe they merit investigation by the FBI and the Senate.” Bechem said that she has been trying to get these messages to the FBI, but they haven’t contacted her. She said that Yarasavage claimed to turned over a copy of a wedding party photo to Kavanaugh. “I had to send it to Brett’s team too,” she reportedly wrote in a text. This photo shows seven people posing at a 1997 rehearsal dinner. Kavanaugh is second from right, and Ramirez on the far left. The wedding was between a pair of mutual friends. Obstensibly, the picture could be used to undermine the allegation, but Becham, who said she was at the wedding, said Ramirez seemed uncomfortable. She “clung to me,” and “never went near” Kavanaugh and his friends, Becham wrote in a Sept. 24th text to Yarasavage. She suggested that Ramirez was trying to stay away from him even in the photo. A spokesman for Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), the Judiciary Committee Chairman, dismissed the texts as a political ploy by Democrats. George Hartmannsaid “the texts from Ms. Berchem do not appear relevant or contradictory to Judge Kavanaugh’s testimony.” “This appears to be another last-ditch effort to derail the nomination with baseless innuendo by Democrats who have already decided to vote no,” he said.
Texts suggest Supreme Court nominee knew of Ramirez accusations months before when he testified he had heard them
Details emerged Monday about a bar fight that Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh was involved in while he was in college, as a separate report raised questions about when he knew about an accuser’s claim against him. NBC News on Monday reported that a college classmate of Kavanaugh has sought to contact the FBI investigation into his past, showing text messages from Kavanaugh and his friends sent before accusations from Deborah Ramirez were made public. According to the report, the text messages asked classmates to refute Ramirez’s claims that Kavanaugh exposed himself to her while in college, before a report detailing the accusation was published by The New Yorker in September. The classmate, Kerry Berchem, told NBC she has yet to talk with the FBI. The texts date back to July, NBC News reported. That could contradict Kavanaugh’s sworn testimony last week before a Senate committee, in which he said he had no knowledge of Ramirez’s allegations before the New Yorker story was published. A number of Democratic senators have accused Kavanaugh of lying under oath, both in his testimony last week regarding sexual assault allegations, and in his original confirmation hearing earlier in September. Separately, a pair of reports Monday detailed Kavanaugh’s role in a bar fight in 1985, when he was an undergrad at Yale. Citing a police report, the New York Times reported Kavanaugh threw ice at a bar patron, which escalated into a fight and the patron being hit in the head with a beer mug by one of Kavanaugh’s friends. The victim was treated and released from a hospital, and while police were called to the scene, there was apparently no arrest or charges filed. Bloomberg News cited the same incident in a report Monday, based on a statement released Sunday from one of Kavanaugh’s college friends, who said Kavanaugh cursed the patron and threw a beer in his face, inciting a brawl. “It was sort of a general feature of hanging out with Brett in college,” said the friend, Charles Ludington, a former Yale basketball player and current professor at North Carolina State University, according to Bloomberg. “When you’re having beers on a Friday or Saturday night, that was kind of Brett’s shtick. He was aggressive. He was belligerent.” In his testimony as well as in a Fox News interview last week, Kavanugh downplayed his drinking behavior. But Democratic critics of Kavanaugh have questioned his temperament and whether he was truthful in his testimony, including the question of whether he ever drank to the point where he blacked out. “I can unequivocally say that in denying the possibility that he ever blacked out from drinking, and in downplaying the degree and frequency of his drinking, Brett has not told the truth,” Ludington said in his statement. Ludington said he is willing to tell his story to the FBI investigators.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday finished the session with a triple-digit advance and the S&P 500 flirted with a fresh all-time high to start the first day of October and the fourth quarter after the U.S. and Canada reached an 11th-hour deal to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement. However, the Nasdaq Composite Index sat out the day’s rally, ending lower on the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.73% rose 193 points, or 0.7%, to reach 26,651, powered by shares of Boeing Co., which delivered a nearly 70-point jolt to the price-weighted blue-chip index. The S&P 500 index SPX, +0.36% closed up 0.4% at 2,924, less than a half-percent short of its Sept. 20 closing high at 2,930.75, while the Nasdaq COMP, -0.11% finished down 0.1% at 8,037. All three benchmarks finished off their best levels of the day. The North American Trade Agreement forged with Canada, brings the U.S.’s northern neighbor into a new trilateral agreement that Mexico had agreed to weeks ago. The deal, known now as the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, or USMCA, must still be approved by Congress but was heralded by President Donald Trump as a “historic news.” Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 index RUT, -1.39% of small-capitalization companies, fell 1.5% to end at 1,673, marking its worst day since July 27th, according to FactSet data. The index has been a respite for investors hoping to lessen the impact of trade on their holdings because the revenue of its constituents aren’t directly hurt by trade because they tend to be domestically driven. In corporate news, shares of Tesla Inc. TSLA, +17.35% jumped after Chairman and Chief Executive Elon Musk settled a Securities and Exchange fraud probe over the weekend and said the company was nearing profitability, while shares of General Electric GE, +7.09% jumped after after the troubled industrial conglomerate said its chief executive officer, John Flannery, was being replaced after a little over a year in the role.
A new US trade pact with Canada and Mexico is “a great deal” for all three countries, President Donald Trump said on Monday, hailing the replacement of the old NAFTA deal which he had long railed against and threatened to cancel. “Late last night, our deadline, we reached a wonderful new Trade Deal with Canada, to be added into the deal already reached with Mexico,” Trump said on Twitter. “It is a great deal for all three countries.” The new pact known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) “solves the many deficiencies and mistakes” in the 24-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement it replaces, Trump said after accomplishing one of his signature policy initiatives. USMCA “greatly opens markets to our Farmers and Manufacturers” while reducing trade barriers “and will bring all three Great Nations closer together in competition with the rest of the world. The USMCA is a historic transaction!” the president said. The rewritten deal “will result in freer markets, fairer trade and robust economic growth in our region,” a joint statement from US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland said late Sunday after six weeks of intense talks and more than a year of fraught, broader negotiations. In the end, Canada and the United States overcame their differences after both sides conceded some ground to reach a deal covering a region of 500 million inhabitants and which conducts about $1 trillion in trade a year. “It’s a good day for Canada,” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Sunday night. Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray tweeted that the deal was good for his country “and for North America”. The political stakes were high. Trump, who pursues an “America First” policy on trade, needs to look strong heading into the November midterm elections where his Republican Party is fighting to keep control of Congress. Trudeau, for his part, did not want to be seen as caving in before next year’s general election in Canada. But on the other hand, it risked being frozen out of a US-Mexican deal reached in August. Early Monday a copy of the deal’s 34 chapters was posted on the US Trade Representative’s website. The pact can now be signed before Mexico’s President Enrique Pena Nieto leaves office December 1, the date that caused the last-minute flurry of activity. US law requires the White House to submit the text to Congress 60 days before signing — and officials barely made it by the midnight deadline.In order to reach the deal Canada agreed to open its dairy market further to US producers, and — in return — Washington left unchanged the dispute settlement provisions. Under Canada’s supply-managed dairy system, Ottawa effectively sets production quotas, which raises prices to consumers but provides farmers with a stable income. Tariffs of up to 275 percent have kept most foreign milk out of the Canadian market. Canada had opposed US demands to weaken or eliminate NAFTA’S dispute resolution mechanism, whose arbitration panels Ottawa used to resolve trade conflicts, particularly concerning its important lumber industry. In recent days warnings were mounting that time was running out to clinch a new deal, but a senior US administration official said the final rewrite is a “fantastic agreement”.Alongside changes to the dairy market in Canada, officials said it includes stronger protections for workers, tough new environmental rules, and updates the trade relationship to cover the digital economy and provides “groundbreaking” intellectual property protections. The AFL-CIO, a Washington-based federation representing millions of unionized employees, said it was too early to “make a final judgment” on the new deal’s impact on working people. One of the most important sectors concerns the auto sector, which NAFTA revolutionized. The US had sought increased American content for duty-free autos. The new text provides rules to encourage North American supply of components. While the pact should protect Mexico and Canada from Trump’s threatened 25 percent tariffs on cars, still pending are the duties on steel and aluminum, which officials said was on a “separate track”, handled by the Commerce Department. Under Sunday’s deal, the trade pact will remain in force for 16 years but will be reviewed every six years. US negotiators had been demanding reauthorization every five years.
“That’s a question you’d have to ask the Senate.”
On Fox News Sunday, White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders refused to answer whether the White House is limiting the FBI investigation into Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. “Has the White House limited in any way who the FBI may talk to?” host Chris Wallace asked her in an interview that aired on Sunday. “And specifically, has the FBI given a list of potential people to talk to that does not include Julie Swetnick, the woman, the third accuser who talked about gang rapes — and also college friends who may contradict Judge Kavanaugh on the issue of heavy drinking?” Sanders did not explicitly answer Wallace’s question about reports that the White House counsel gave a specific witness list to the FBI that did not include Swetnick, who last week said that Kavanaugh and his friend Mark Judge were both involved in sexual assault and gang rapes when they were students at Georgetown Preparatory School in the 1980s. “The White House is not micromanaging this process,” she replied vaguely. “The Senate is dictating the terms, they laid out the request, and we’ve opened it up, and as you’ve heard the president say, do what you need to do. The FBI, this is what they do, and we are out of the way letting them do exactly that.” “But to be specific, did the White House counsel give the FBI a list?” Wallace pressed. “Not that I’m aware of. The White House counsel has allowed the Senate to dictate what the terms look like and what the scope of investigation is. Again, the White House isn’t intervening, we’re not micromanaging this process. This is something — it’s a Senate process, it has been from the beginning and we’re letting the Senate continue to dictate what the terms look like.” “So do you know if either the Senate or the White House is saying don’t interview Julie Swetnick?” “That’s a question you’d have to ask the Senate,” she replied. NBC News reported on Saturday that White House counsel Don McGahn’s witness list to the FBI also excludes former classmates of Kavanaugh who have described him as a heavy drinker (contradicting his own accounts). Also not on the list are his high school classmates who could explain why he and and a group of his male friends used the name of a student at a nearby all-girls Catholic school to repeatedly refer to themselves as “Renate Alumnius.”
The sources who spoke to NBC News said that questioning Mark Judge would not be the FBI’s top priority. Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, who testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday that Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her, said that Judge was present in the room during the assault. The sources also said that the limits imposed by the White House did not change after Trump’s tweet on Saturday saying the FBI can investigate whoever it wants. In a similar fashion to Sanders, Kellyanne Conway, counselor to President Trump, was unable to reject reports Sunday that the White House had imposed limits on the FBI investigation.
“Did Don McGahn say you can interview these witnesses but not these witnesses?” CNN host Jake Tapper asked her. “I don’t think he would do that. But I’ve not talked to him about it.” Three women have publicly come forward to accuse Kavanaugh of sexual assault: Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, Deborah Ramirez, and Julie Swetnick.
Tesla and its CEO Elon Musk have agreed to pay a total of $40 million and make a series of concessions to settle a government lawsuit alleging Musk duped investors with misleading statements about a proposed buyout of the company. The securities fraud agreement, disclosed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Saturday, will come as a relief to investors, who had worried that a lengthy legal fight would only further hurt the loss-making electric car company. The SEC on Thursday charged Musk, 47, with misleading investors with tweets on Aug. 7 that said he was considering taking Tesla private at $420 a share and had secured funding. The tweets had no basis in fact, and the ensuring market chaos hurt investors, it claimed. Investors and corporate governance experts said the agreement could strengthen Tesla, which has been bruised by Musk’s recent behavior, which included smoking marijuana and wielding a sword on a webcast, and attacking a British rescue diver via Twitter. The settlement should place more oversight on Musk while not taking the “devastating” measure of forcing him out, said Steven Heim, a director at Boston Common Asset Management, which owns shares in Tesla battery maker Panasonic Corp. Tesla must appoint an independent chairman, two independent directors, and a board committee to set controls over Musk’s communications under the proposed agreement. “The prompt resolution of this matter on the agreed terms is in the best interests of our markets and our investors, including the shareholders of Tesla,” SEC Chairman Jay Clayton said in a statement. Thursday’s charges shaved about $7 billion off high-flying Tesla, knocking its market value to $45.2 billion on Friday, below General Motors Co’s $47.5 billion. In the settlement, the agency pulled back from its demand that Musk, who is synonymous with the Tesla brand, be barred from running Tesla, a sanction that many investors said would be disastrous. “I think this is the best possible outcome for everyone involved” said Ivan Feinseth of Tigress Financial Partners, who rates Tesla “neutral” and who called the SEC’s penalty “a slap on the wrist” for Musk. “The fact that he can remain CEO is very important for the company.” Neither Musk nor Tesla admitted or denied the SEC’s findings as part of the settlement, which still must be approved by a court. Tesla and Musk did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Musk had been directly involved in almost every detail of Tesla’s product design and technology strategy, and drove the company’s employees to extraordinary achievements – much as another Silicon Valley chief executive, Steve Jobs, did at Apple Inc. The entrepreneur is now required to step down as chairman of Tesla within 45 days, and he is not permitted to be re-elected to the post for three Thursday that the SEC’s actions were unjustified. Tesla shares jumped after his Aug. 7 tweets, a blow to short-sellers betting on the stock’s decline.
Donald Trump spoke on the phone Saturday with King Salman bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia, days after the U.S. president’s latest criticism of OPEC over high oil prices. The pair discussed the stability of the oil market and the strategic partnership between the two countries, Al Arabiya TV reported, without providing more details. The White House said Trump and the King spoke on “issues of regional concern.” Hedge funds are watching Trump’s back-and-forth with the kingdom for any signs that the U.S. might take action against the country or other members who belong to the cartel. Trump’s been increasing the pressure on OPEC, saying it’s pushing oil prices too high. At its latest meeting, the group ignored his call to reduce oil prices. This week, Trump again said he wasn’t happy with OPEC, Middle East nations and oil prices, asserting that the producer group was causing prices to rise while benefiting from protection of the U.S. military. Trump has gone after OPEC multiple times this year, including while speaking at the United Nations on Sept. 25. “OPEC and OPEC nations, are, as usual, ripping off the rest of the world, and I don’t like it,” Trump said in an address to the United Nations General Assembly in New York. “We want them to stop raising prices. We want them to start lowering prices and they must contribute substantially to military protection from now on.”
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, surged on Friday to a fresh 4-year high above $83 a barrel as the market braces for the impact of the U.S. energy sanctions on Iran.
Gasoline pump prices are on the rise in the U.S., squeezing consumers weeks before critical mid-term elections. The national unleaded average gas price was $2.875 per gallon on Friday, according to AAA, up 1.4 percent in the past month and 11.7 percent higher than a year ago.
The Federal Reserve just keeps on hiking, and it could be setting the U.S. economy up for its next recession, says Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. This week, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate a quarter point, and upgraded its expectations for economic growth for this year and next. However, rising borrowing costs have been faulted by a few observers, including President Donald Trump, who just days ago said he was “not happy” about the central bank’s move. One of those who echoed the president’s concerns was Boockvar, who told CNBC’s “Futures Now” on Thursday, that 10 of the last 13 rate hike cycles ended in recession. “We’re now getting deeper into the rate hike cycle, and while we all focus on where the fed funds rate is going to be, behind the scenes the Fed continues to shrink their balance sheet,” the veteran investor said.
The Fed built up $4.5 trillion in bonds and other securities during its quantitative easing program which began nearly a decade ago.The dual approach of hiking rates while reducing asset holdings tightens monetary conditions at a faster pace than a change to the fed funds rate alone.
Next month, the Fed will increase its reductions to $50 billion a month — five times the pace this time last year. Separately two other major central banks are also pulling back on cheap money stimulus “What worries me going into next year is that it’s not just the Fed,” added Boockvar. “The ECB is ending QE by year end… and then you add on what the Bank of Japan is doing,” said Boockvar. “The monetary spigot really changes a lot next year.” Fiscal policy from the Trump White House may not have the same effect in offsetting the Fed’s monetary policy going forward, either, Boockvar cautioned. “Next year you start to lose the one-time step-up to earnings from the tax cut and…the monetary tightening begins to pick up steam,” he said. The GOP’s corporate tax cuts, which passed late last year, have raised companies’ earnings by a wide margin this year. That one-time boost created easy comparables that made profit growth appear even more impressive this year. S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase 22 percent this year, according to FactSet, nearly double the rate in 2017.
President Donald Trump, speaking on the world’s biggest stage, this week laid for the United Nations his case for patriotism and against globalism. He then doubled down on his determination to push back on China. If he’s determined to do the first, however, he will fail at the second. Put another way: If he wants to dramatically reduce U.S. engagement through multilateral institutions, he will lack the leverage to either counter China or shape its behavior. Thus, President Trump should have instead remade himself as a “patriotic globalist.” After all, it was patriotism at its best that prompted U.S. decision makers after the Second World War to establish an America-led system of alliances and institutions that ended the destructive cycle of zero-sum relations in Europe and Asia. They did so not out of abstract benevolence or Utopian naivete, but because global engagement ensured American interests. And history has proven them right. Through establishing international norms for free trade and a U.S. military presence around the world to enforce them, U.S. leaders enabled U.S. businesses to securely trade globally, thus creating unprecedented profits and jobs. Whatever you think of Trump’s style, what appeals to his supporters is that he frequently puts his finger on real problems that other politicians have swept under rugs. His UN speech betrays a misunderstanding of how U.S. international engagement since World War II has served American interests. Cold War victory over Soviet-style communism and its global influence efforts, without a shot being fired by the principals, came about only due to consistent U.S. leadership of allies and friends, working through acronymic institutions such as NATO, the OSCE, the EU and the IMF. Hardly a week passes when the U.S.-established order doesn’t face strains, many exacerbated by the Trump administration itself. Finally, it remains uncertain whether Canada will join the recent U.S.-Mexico trade agreement and thus strengthen NAFTA, or whether the trilateral trade pact will come undone and lead to even greater trade tensions with America’s nearest neighbor and ally. These short-term developments are not disconnected strands but rather all relate to maintaining U.S. international interest though existing international institutions and agreements. The stakes for the international system, however, are highest in the contest between the United States and China over who will have the most influence in shaping the coming century.
BEIJING (AP) — Asian stock markets were mostly lower Tuesday after a Chinese government report accusing the Trump administration of bullying other countries dampened hopes for a settlement in their escalating tariff war. KEEPING SCORE: The Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.8 percent to 2,775.91 and Sydney’s S&P-ASX 200 shed 0.1 percent to 6,180.10. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 advanced 0.1 percent to 23,900.57 while Hong Kong and Seoul were closed for holidays. Benchmarks in New Zealand, Malaysia and the Philippines retreated while Taiwan and Singapore advanced. WALL STREET: Industrial companies and bank sank after news reports that China pulled out of possible talks proposed by Washington on ending their fight over Beijing’s technology policy. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost 0.4 percent to 2,919.37. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.7 percent to 26,562.05. Both the S&P 500 and Dow set record highs last week. General Electric dropped 3.5 percent and 3M declined 1.3 percent. China issued a report accusing Washington of abandoning “mutual respect” required for international relations and “trade bullyism” toward other governments. At the same time, both governments imposed new tariffs on each other’s goods in their war over U.S. complaints that Beijing steals or pressures companies to hand over technology. The criticism of Washington “suggests that China might prefer to wait out the current U.S. administration, rather than embarking on potentially futile negotiations,” said Cheng Wei Liang of Mizuho Bank in a report. “It is increasingly likely that both sides will not resume negotiations for some time, at least until there is a noticeable shift in the political mood on either side.”
A Russian-American businessman who donated a substantial sum to Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential election effort boasted to a senior figure in Moscow that he was “actively involved” in the Republican candidate’s campaign, the Guardian can reveal. Simon Kukes said he was helping Trump with “strategy development” and shared photos of his 29-year-old Russian girlfriend posing with the future president. Kukes made the claims to Vyacheslav Pavlovsky, a career Kremlin official and former ambassador to Norway. Pavlovsky is currently vice-president of Russian Railways. The disclosure raises questions about the role played by Kukes in the run-up to the election and what information, if anything, was being relayed by him to his associates in Russia. Kukes’s donations began two weeks after the meeting at Trump Tower in June 2016, when Donald Trump Jr, Paul Manafort, and Jared Kushner discussed “dirt” on Hillary Clinton with a Russian lawyer. In total Kukes gave $273,000 (£207,000) to Trump Victory – a fundraising committee that distributes donations between the candidate, the Republican National Committee (RNC) and state Republican parties. He had no previous history of giving money to political causes. During this period he was in regular contact with Pavlovsky. In one email written in July 2016, Kukes wrote in Russian: “I am actively involved in Trump’s election campaign, and am part of the group on strategy development.” Kukes said that he would be in Switzerland from 20 July until 2 August, and asked Pavlovsky if he wanted to meet there. Kukes emailed again a week later, saying he would like to introduce Pavlovsky to a “close friend”, a Moscow oil executive, “who has just flown in”. They were discussing “very interesting projects for Russia and the US”, he wrote, adding: “I hope one of them will materialise.” One US intelligence expert described Kukes’s communications with Pavlovsky as suspicious. “To me this reads like an email exchange between a source and a handler, or a source and headquarters,” Lindsay Moran, a former CIA officer, told NBC News after reviewing the email exchanges. Since giving money to Trump, Kukes has avoided publicity. He founded a Houston-based consultancy, Nafta Consulting LLC, and invested in a company that develops US shale and oil assets. He was an investor in Promstroy, an oil services company.
UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – North Korea’s foreign minister told the United Nations on Saturday continued sanctions were deepening its mistrust in the United States and there was no way the country would give up its nuclear weapons unilaterally under such circumstances. Ri Yong Ho told the world body’s annual General Assembly that North Korea had taken “significant goodwill measures” in the past year, such as stopping nuclear and missiles tests, dismantling the nuclear test site, and pledging not to proliferate nuclear weapons and nuclear technology. “However, we do not see any corresponding response from the U.S.,” he said. “Without any trust in the U.S. there will be no confidence in our national security and under such circumstances there is no way we will unilaterally disarm ourselves first.” While Ri reprised familiar North Korean complaints about Washington’s resistance to a “phased” approach to denuclearization under which North Korea would be rewarded as it took gradual steps, his statement appeared significant in that it did not reject unilateral denuclearization out of hand as Pyongyang has done in the past. Ri referred to a joint statement issued by Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump at a first ever summit between a serving U.S. president and a North Korean leader in Singapore on June 12, when Kim pledged to work toward “denuclearization of the Korean peninsula” while Trump promised guarantees of North Korea’s security. North Korea has been seeking a formal end to the 1950-53 Korea War, but the United States has said Pyongyang must give up its nuclear weapons first. Washington has also resisted calls to relax tough international sanctions on North Korea. “The U.S. insists on the ‘denuclearization-first’ and increases the level of pressure by sanctions to achieve their purpose in a coercive manner, and even objecting to the ‘declaration of the end of war,'” Ri said. “The perception that sanctions can bring us on our knees is a pipe dream of the people who are ignorant about us. But the problem is that the continued sanctions are deepening our mistrust.”
On Wednesday, Trump said he did not have a time frame for this, saying “If it takes two years, three years or five months – doesn’t matter.”
The Security Council has unanimously boosted sanctions on North Korea since 2006 in a bid to choke off funding for Pyongyang’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Pompeo has visited North Korea three times already this year, but his last trip did not go well. He left Pyongyang in July saying that progress had been made, only for North Korea within hours to denounce him for making “gangster-like demands.”
Mexico City (AFP) – The United States and Canada have told Mexico they could reach a compromise within 48 hours on keeping the updated North American Free Trade Agreement a three-country deal, the Mexican economy minister said Friday. Speaking as he presented the Mexican Senate with the current US-Mexican agreement to update NAFTA — which does not include Canada, the third member of the original deal — Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said Washington and Ottawa were making a “very serious,” last-ditch attempt to bridge their differences. “For the first time, we’re seeing a real effort by both sides,” he said. “In the next 48 hours, we will know if we are going with a trilateral agreement.” Guajardo, Mexico’s top negotiator for “NAFTA 2.0,” insisted that even if no 11th-hour US-Canadian deal is reached, a three-way deal would still be possible at some point in the future. But that would mean “going ahead with a bilateral agreement and then later defining what legal actions we would have to take to maintain the possibility of a three-way deal,” he said. A Canadian government source told AFP that Canada’s top negotiator, Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, “is in constant communication with the Americans, both formally and informally.” The United States and Mexico want to push their deal through their respective legislatures before Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador takes office on December 1. In the United States, there is a three-month timeframe for doing so — meaning Congress must have the text of the deal by Sunday. US President Donald Trump has been pushing for a complete overhaul of the 25-year-old trade deal, which he says has been a “rip-off” for the United States. In August — more than a year into the negotiations — the United States and Mexico announced they had reached a two-way deal, after breaking away for bilateral talks on their outstanding issues. But the ensuing talks to incorporate Canada have stumbled. According to the negotiators, Canada’s insistence on a trade dispute provision and its protected dairy sector are the last major sticking points. Ottawa is also seeking assurances that the United States will not, after signing a new NAFTA deal, turn around and hit Canada with punitive auto tariffs. Tempers flared this week on both sides as the end-of-month deadline approached. “We’re not getting along with their negotiators,” Trump said Wednesday of Canada. “Canadians are tough negotiators, as we should be,” Trudeau fired back.”We won’t sign a bad deal for Canada.” The politics are high-stakes on both sides: Trump needs to look strong heading into the US mid-term elections in November, while Trudeau does not want to be seen as caving with a general election looming next year. The man whose impending inauguration is responsible for the rush — Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador — downplayed the importance of the end-of-month deadline. “There is no fatal date, there is still time to reach a deal,” he told a press conference earlier Friday. The leftist president-elect, a free-trade skeptic, had criticized NAFTA in the past. But his transition team played an active part in the recent negotiations, and he has firmly backed the US-Mexican deal — which he wants Canada to join. Lopez Obrador, widely known as “AMLO,” said he had spoken by phone Thursday with Trudeau. “He said the negotiations were very difficult, that it might not be possible (to reach a three-way deal), but that they (Canada) had made a proposal,” he said. But he said he considered the substance of the US-Mexican deal to be final, and that Mexico did not want to renegotiate points that had already been agreed with Washington. “We don’t want to put our economic future and our country’s financial stability at risk,” he said.
SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korea’s LG Display Co Ltd, an Apple supplier, will cut jobs through voluntary retirement for the first time since its founding, a spokeswoman confirmed on Saturday. LG Display plans to receive applications in October for voluntary redundancy among employees in production that make up about 65 percent of its workforce, South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo reported earlier on Saturday citing the company, adding the target size of the voluntary redundancy has not been decided. The spokeswoman said the voluntary retirement offer is driven by automation as well as the company’s portfolio switch from liquid crystal display (LCD) to organic light-emitting diode (OLED) screens, which require fewer production personnel. The company will secure competitiveness by increasing the portion of R&D workers and engineers, she added. Prices of LCD screens, the company’s mainstay, have plummeted partly due to Chinese competition, causing LG Display to say in July it would slash $2.7 billion in capital spending planned through 2020 in order to switch its portfolio to OLED screens. Company officials had previously said that it was not planning layoffs for fear of losing talent to China.
A federal district judge in Washington ruled on Friday that a group of nearly 200 Democratic senators and representatives have legal standing to sue President Donald Trump to prove he violated the U.S. Constitution’s emoluments provision banning the acceptance of gifts from foreign and domestic interests. The U.S. District Court Judge Emmet Sullivan found that lawmakers have adequately shown that they’ve suffered harm from the president’s alleged violation of the emoluments clause, which bans benefits from foreign governments unless a majority of both houses of Congress consent. The ruling was the second time a federal court judge has decided to advance such unprecedented constitutional lawsuits against the president. A federal judge in Maryland ruled in July that a similar lawsuit against Trump filed by the attorneys general for Maryland and the District of Columbia could proceed, but only as pertained to earnings from Trump’s Washington, D.C., hotel.To allow the lawsuit to proceed, Sullivan said he would “accept as true the allegations that the President has accepted prohibited foreign emoluments without seeking the consent of Congress.” Justice Department spokeswoman Kelly Laco said in a statement that the government believes this case should be dismissed and “will continue to defend the President in court.” The lawyers representing 198 congressional Democrats were led by Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Connecticut Democrat who, along with his colleagues, have argued that Trump isn’t letting them do their jobs. He praised Sullivan’s ruling. “This is a bombshell victory enabling us to move forward to hold the president accountable for violating the chief corruption prohibition in the United States’ Constitution,” Blumenthal told the AP. “President Trump has been violating it repeatedly with impunity and now we as members need to hold him accountable.”
The Democrats’ attorney Elizabeth Wydra, who is president of the nonprofit Constitutional Accountability Center and argued the case in court, said that “by recognizing that members of Congress have standing to sue, the court proved to all in America today that no one is above the law, not even the president.”
The Trump Organization did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The case argues that the president has received foreign government favors, such as Chinese government trademarks for his companies, payments for hotel room stays and event-space rentals by representatives of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and proceeds from Chinese or Emirati-linked government purchases of office space in Trump Tower. Ethics experts say the constitutional emoluments clause was created by the Founding Fathers to ensure that government officials act with the interests of the American public in mind instead of their own pocketbooks.
Unlike prior presidents, Trump chose not to divest from his assets and he remains the owner of the Trump Organization, a sprawling business empire with 550 entities in more than 20 countries that include branded hotels, golf courses, licensing deals and other interests. His Washington, D.C., hotel is near the White House and has become a magnet for foreign governments, previously hosting groups tied to Kuwait, Bahrain, Turkey, Malaysia and Saudi Arabia.
The District of Columbia case is one of three that argues the president is violating the emoluments clause, but this case is notable because the plaintiffs in this suit — members of Congress — are mentioned in the clause itself. The Democrats’ attorneys have argued that Congress not only has a right but is required, as part of their jobs, to weigh in on potential emoluments to Trump such as a $6.5 million condo purchase by the Qatari government or a Chinese-government owned company’s investment in a project that will include a Trump-branded hotel and golf course in Indonesia. Justice Department lawyers argued in court papers that the Democrats suing the president are not being injured by him at all but by their colleagues in Congress, who have refused to take up the emoluments issue. While the judge acknowledged that the case did raise separation of power concerns, he also noted that “plaintiffs have no adequate legislative remedy” but can be resolved by the judicial process by requiring the president to ask for congressional consent before accepting emoluments. Sullivan’s decision broadens the potential legal peril for Trump and his companies after U.S. District Judge Peter J. Messitte ruled that the emoluments clause lawsuit filed in a Maryland federal court could proceed against Trump. That case, however, is only limited to earnings Trump has received from the Trump International Hotel, which opened in Washington in September 2016. In July, Messitte dismissed the Justice Department’s contention that Trump’s business activity such as hotel room earnings don’t qualify under the constitutional definition of emoluments. The case has moved to the legal discovery stage. The Justice Department, however, has asked for an appeal in that case and for all proceedings to halt until an appeals court rules.
China warned Friday that its critical relationship with the United States could break “like a glass,” and used the most global of stages to warn the Trump administration it wouldn’t be pushed around on trade. Foreign Minister Wang Yi insisted that his country “will not be blackmailed” or bow to pressure. “Protectionism will only hurt oneself, and unilateral moves will bring damage to all,” he told the U.N. General Assembly gathering of world leaders. President Donald Trump this week cranked up punitive tariffs on China, and Beijing responded in kind, escalating a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Trump upped the ante by then accusing China of meddling in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections because it opposes his trade policies. He has presented little evidence to back up the allegations, which China says are untrue. Wang, in separate remarks at a think tank, said U.S.-China relationship was at a critical point, four decades since ties were normalized. “The relationship between our two countries is a common asset. It must be preserved and valued. It’s the result of generations of people’s efforts,” Wang said. “It’s like a glass. It’s easy to break it” and would be difficult to repair, he said. Although Wang presented China as upholding multilateral institutions — drawing an implicit contrast with Trump’s anti-globalist stance — Beijing’s top diplomat said the suspicions that China seeks global hegemony and to displace the U.S. as a world leader is false. But he warned it’s an idea that is spreading, amplifying differences between the two countries. “This is a serious strategic misjudgment,” Wang told the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, “that will be extremely detrimental to U.S. interests and the future of the United States.” He said China rather seeks a path of peaceful development. He defended China’s assertive behavior in the South China Sea, where it has built man-made islands to reinforce its sweeping territorial claims that are disputed by its neighbors. He said military facilities on those islands are for defensive purposes to counter military activities by other nations in the area, including the United States. Wang also defended China’s recent participation in military drills with Russia that have added to U.S. anxiety that its key strategic rivals are setting aside historical differences and teaming up against it. He said military-to-military ties are normal to build “mutual understanding.” On human rights, Wang was asked about the reported harsh treatment of Uighur Muslims in China’s far west. He maintained that China had brought law and order to a region once blighted by terrorism. The Trump administration is reportedly considering sanctions in response to members of the religious minority being forced into “re-education” camps on a massive scale. Trump increased tariffs Monday on $200 billion of Chinese goods. Beijing responded by imposing penalties on $60 billion of American products. That was on top of an earlier duty increase by both sides on $50 billion of each other’s goods. The tit-for-tat is fueling anxiety that smaller nations will suffer. “There is a trade war going on between the two most powerful nations, and the rest of the world is feeling the pain,” Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad told the General Assembly on Friday.
Senate Republicans have agreed to delay a vote on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation for one week to allow for an FBI probe into allegations of sexual misconduct against the judge, according to a statement issued by the Senate Judiciary Committee on Friday. The committee requested that the White House “instruct the FBI to conduct a supplemental FBI background investigation with respect to” Kavanaugh’s nomination, the statement said. The president agreed in short order. In a tweet posted by White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders on Friday afternoon, the president said had ordered a supplemental investigation that would be “limited in scope and completed in less than one week.” The delay means that a floor vote on Kavanaugh’s confirmation, which had been expected for Tuesday, could now happen three days later. Senators will move forward with a procedural vote expected Saturday. In a statement released by the White House Friday afternoon, Kavanaugh said he would “continue to cooperate.”
Sarah Sanders tweet
Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Texas; Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and a number of other Republicans huddled in McConnell’s office Friday afternoon to discuss how to proceed on the confirmation following a call from a number of key senators to delay the vote. The president, who has stood by his nominee amid a turbulent confirmation process roiled by accusations of sexual abuse, said Friday that he would be “totally reliant” on Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa.
“I’m going to rely on all of the people including Senator Grassley, who’s doing a very good job,” Trump said. The Judiciary Committee voted on Friday along party lines to advance Kavanaugh’s nomination to the full Senate, but a dramatic last-minute speech from retiring Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., thrust the process into chaos. Flake, who earlier announced that he would vote “yes” on Kavanaugh’s confirmation, said at the committee meeting that his floor vote would be contingent on an FBI probe. A number of other senators considered to be swing votes soon followed suit, with Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin signaling their support for Flake’s proposal almost immediately. The delay follows an explosive, nearly nine-hour day of testimony before the Judiciary Committee on Thursday from Kavanaugh and one of his accusers, Christine Blasey Ford. Ford has alleged that Kavanaugh attempted to rape her at a high school gathering that took place more than three decades ago. Kavanaugh has vehemently denied the accusation. The prospect of an FBI probe was contentiously debated at the hearing Thursday. The two top members of the committee sparred over the utility of such an inquiry — as well as if it could even be conducted. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, the top Democrat on the committee, said an FBI probe would be “the best way to ensure a fair process to both Kavanaugh and Ford.” In contrast, Grassley called Democratic demands for the FBI to get involved “consistent with their stated desires to obstruct the Kavanaugh nomination by any means necessary,” and said he had “no authority to force an executive branch agency to conduct an investigation into a matter it considers to be closed.” Ford and Kavanaugh themselves were split on whether the FBI should investigate. While Ford has pushed for the bureau to look into her claims, Kavanaugh has pushed back. He said he wants to do whatever the Judiciary Committee thinks is best.
LONDON (Reuters) – Global investors increased holdings of U.S. equities to their highest since May 2015 in September while reducing their exposure to emerging-market assets, where a majority believe the shake-out still has some way to go.Reuters’ monthly asset allocation poll of 54 wealth managers and chief investment officers in Europe, the United States, Britain and Japan was carried out Sept. 17-28 as the S&P 500 .SPX and Dow Jones .DJI climbed to record peaks. Asset managers boosted their exposure to U.S. stocks by 2 percentage points to 42.7 percent. They trimmed overall equity exposure to 48 percent of their global balanced portfolios. Cedric Baron, head of multi asset at Generali Investments, was among those remaining overweight in U.S. equities because of attractive fundamentals. He cited economic growth — 4 percent in the second quarter — corporate earnings growth, sentiment indicators reaching high levels, and accommodative financing.Investors were unperturbed about the political fallout from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation of Russian interference in the U.S. 2016 presidential elections, which turned up the heat on President Donald Trump in September. In late, August Trump warned that the stockmarket would crash if he were impeached. But 88 percent of poll participants who answered a question on this did not expect the market to tumble. Several prefaced said they regarded the probability of impeachment as very low.
“Obviously, starting an impeachment process could lead to increased volatility and an initial stock market correction,” said Frank Haertel, head of asset allocation at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “However, a new president could also bring significant upside potential.”
Investors raised their European equity exposure by 1.5 percentage points to 19.5 percent, a four-month high. Pascal Blanque, group chief investment officer of Amundi, said the segment had not been in favor to the same extent as U.S. shares but had become more attractive as valuations got cheaper. European equities look set to end the quarter up around 1.4 percent, compared with gains of over 7 percent for the S&P 500 and almost 9 percent for the Dow Jones.Conversely, emerging markets were regarded with caution. Equities were cut by half a percentage point to 10.5 percent, while emerging-market debt fell to 9.4 percent from August’s 10.2 percent. The segment had another turbulent month with equities .MSCIEF hitting a 15-month low and currencies such as the Indian rupee INR= and Indonesian rupiah IDR= reaching record or multi-year lows.
Year-to-date, emerging-market equities are down 9.4 percent, while the Turkish lira TRY= has fallen around 37 percent versus the dollar and Argentina’s peso ARS= over 50 percent.
Some 59 percent of poll participants who answered a question on this topic said emerging markets were only in the middle of the meltdown, with a more optimistic 32 percent saying they were nearing the end.
ROME (Reuters) – Italy’s new government proposed a 2019 budget with a deficit three times bigger than the previous administration’s target, setting up a clash with the European Commission and sparking a sell-off of state bonds. Italy has the heaviest debt burden among big European Union economies, at 130 percent of gross domestic product. It is under pressure from the EU to rein in spending amid fears it could sow the seeds of a debt crisis in the heart of the euro zone. The four-month-old government late on Thursday night offered a budget with a deficit of 2.4 percent of GDP for the next three years, to fund a major expansion of welfare spending, tax cuts and a boost to public infrastructure investment. It marked a victory for ruling-party chiefs over Economy Minister Giovanni Tria, an unaffiliated technocrat who had been seen by investors as a comparative fiscal conservative. Tria had initially wanted a deficit set as low as 1.6 percent next year, hoping to respect European Union demands that Italy progressively cut the fiscal gap to rein in its debt. The euro slumped on the news overnight before recovering ground. Italian bonds were set for their worst day in over three months, and banking shares also swooned, though fears of a savage selloff were avoided.
“They seem to be on a collision course with Brussels,” said ING rates strategist Martin van Vliet.
European Economics Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said nothing would be gained from a clash with Italy but added: “We don’t have any interest either that Italy does not respect the rules and does not reduce its debt, which remains explosive.” The coalition government of the 5-Star Movement and the League, which took power in June, had been pushing for a deficit around 2.4 percent of GDP to fund costly campaign promises. Tria had been trying to hold out for something below 2.0 percent. “There is an accord within the whole government for 2.4 percent, we are satisfied, this is a budget for change,” 5-Star leader Luigi Di Maio and League chief Matteo Salvini said in a joint statement after meetings with Tria. The statement appeared to refer only to the 2019 deficit target, but government officials and Justice Minister Alfonso Bonafede later said the same deficit level would be maintained for three straight years to 2021. The policy marks a striking shift from the previous centre-left administration, which had targeted a deficit of 0.8 percent of GDP in 2019 and a balanced budget in 2020. “Today is a historic day, today Italy has changed,” Di Maio posted on Facebook after the deficit goals were announced. Di Maio said the 2019 budget, which must be presented by Oct. 20, will set aside 10 billion euros ($11.6 billion) for 5-Star’s flagship policy of a “citizens’ income” of up to 780 euros per month for 6.5 million poor Italians. Salvini said the budget would also allow people to retire earlier, freeing up about 400,000 jobs for the young, and cut tax rates for a million self-employed workers. And in a sign of rising tensions between Rome and Brussels over the budget, a League lawmaker close to Salvini said on Friday that the EU should not risk a battle with Italy while also struggling to deal with Britain’s exit from the bloc.
Attorneys for Christine Blasey Ford, who alleges that Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her in the early 1980s, released the results on Wednesday of a polygraph test their client took in early August, before her allegations became public. The test was administered to gauge the truthfulness of Ford’s account of the alleged attack, which she says happened when she was 15 and Kavanaugh was 17. The results, which were analyzed using three separate analytical methods, all indicated that Ford is telling the truth. Ford and Kavanaugh are both scheduled to testify about the alleged assault before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday. Ford’s polygraph test was administered by Jeremiah Hanafin, a certified polygraph examiner whose professional resume indicates that he spent nearly 20 years as a special agent in the FBI. According to Hanafin’s report, Ford described her account of the night she says Kavanaugh locked her in a room, pinned her down on a bed and attempted to take her clothes off at a suburban Maryland house party. She also alleged that Kavanaugh covered her mouth with his hand and that “this act was the most terrifying for her.” According to the report, Ford said that Kavanaugh and his close friend, Mark Judge were both in the room at the time of the assault, and that they were both laughing. Ford said she only escaped when Judge jumped on top of her and Kavanaugh, and they all fell to the ground. She also said the experience left her with lasting emotional trauma. Kavanaugh has denied Ford’s allegation, as well as accusations by two other women that have emerged in the past week. One woman, Deborah Ramirez, claims that Kavanaugh aggressively exposed himself to her in college. A third woman, Julie Swetnick, said Wednesday in a sworn statement that she witnessed Kavanaugh and Judge deliberately giving young women at parties alcohol and drugs in quantities designed to incapacitate them, after which, she alleged, the women were gang raped. Ford’s polygraph test is the latest document to be released by her attorneys ahead of her testimony Thursday. Earlier in the day Wednesday, the Senate Judiciary Committee received four sworn statements from people close to Ford, who all said she had told them of the assault, prior to Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Americans are largely supportive of the Department of Justice official overseeing the special counsel investigating the 2016 campaign of President Donald Trump, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found. Those wanting U.S. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to stay outnumber those who want him out by a margin of almost two-to-one. The Sept. 25-26 poll, released on Wednesday, found that 42 percent of adults agree that Rosenstein should “keep his job.” That compares with 22 percent who said they disagree, and another 35 percent who said they “don’t know.” Rosenstein has been in Trump’s crosshairs ever since he appointed former FBI Director Robert Mueller to investigate Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. The probe, which Trump has frequently labeled a “witch hunt,” has resulted in more than 30 indictments and six guilty pleas so far. On Monday, some news organizations reported Rosenstein was out of the job after a report in the New York Times had said he suggested secretly recording Trump. That was not the case, but Trump later said that he had not decided what to do about Rosenstein. Rosenstein is expected to meet on Thursday with Trump to discuss his future at the Justice Department. It is unclear who would take over as Mueller’s supervisor if Rosenstein leaves. The poll also found that while the public is split along party lines regarding Mueller — two-thirds of Democrats have a favorable impression of the special counsel and two-thirds of Republicans have an unfavorable impression of him — a slight majority want an independent investigation to continue. If Mueller “were to be terminated or resign,” 51 percent said an independent investigation should continue, while 24 percent said it should not. The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online, in English, throughout the United States. It gathered responses from 1,187 adults, including 441 Democrats and 383 Republicans. The poll has a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of about 3 percentage points.
What kind of irrationality causes investors to accept exorbitant prices for active management?
Most “rational” people will prefer more money to less money. Accordingly, they will prefer to gain more monetary value rather than less from what they buy, and they will prefer to pay less for what they buy rather than more. Except when it comes to their investment decisions. Low-cost indexed investment management has gained strength at a great rate in recent years. Yet much-higher-cost active management still claims the majority of investors’ assets. Repeated studies have shown that as much as 97% to 99% of active equity managers underperform passive stock market indexes. Therefore, they provide investors with less monetary value than passive, indexed investment management. On the cost side, the cost for active management can be as much as 40 or more times the cost of passively managed index funds. With fees like that, over an investor’s lifetime the investor can lose as much as a third- to a half of her wealth to fees. How could any rational investor — one who prefers more value in the investment product purchased to less, and lower cost to higher cost — possibly choose active fund management over passive management? Heaton and Pennington use methods developed by Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman and his late colleague Amos Tversky to research investor irrationality. Their starting point is to posit that investors suffer from what is called the “conjunction fallacy.” The conjunction fallacy is an apparent failure of logic, represented by the following example: Which of these two possibilities do you think is more likely?
A. Johnny gets an “A” on his final exam.
B. Johnny studies hard and gets an “A” on his final exam.
Most people will answer that B is the more likely. But this is a fallacy, because option A includes the possibility that Johnny didn’t need to study hard to get an “A” and didn’t study hard, while option B doesn’t include that possibility and is therefore less likely. However, people are so used to conjoining “studying hard” with “getting an A” that they don’t see their logical error. To fit this line of inquiry to the investment management area, Heaton and Pennington posed the following question to experimental subjects: ABC Fund invests in common stocks listed on U.S. stock exchanges.
Which is more likely?
1. ABC Fund will earn a good return this year for its investors.
2. ABC Fund will earn a good return this year for its investors, and ABC Fund employs investment analysts who work hard to identify the best stocks for ABC Fund to invest in.
From this, Heaton and Pennington conclude that investors choose active management because they adamantly believe that hard work and a high level of competence must surely be rewarded with good results — even if the evidence shows otherwise. Many active managers, when questioned by clients or prospects about their high fees, will invoke the “brain surgeon” analogy. They will say, “If you need brain surgery would you choose the lowest-cost brain surgeon?” This rejoinder has been proven to work time and time again, because, as Heaton and Pennington would argue, the clients believe that in a just world, “hard-working experts should produce superior outcomes.” Therefore, they should be paid more, even if — bewilderingly and incredibly — the statistics plainly show that they do not produce superior outcomes.
Insiders at US companies have dumped $5.7 billion of stock this month, the highest in any September over the past decade, according to an analysis of regulatory filings by TrimTabs Investment Research. It’s not a new trend. Insiders, which include corporate officers and directors, sold shares in August at the fastest pace in 10 years as well, TrimTabs said. The selling is noteworthy because it occurred as the market rebounded sharply from an early 2018 tumble. Fueled by tax cuts and a strong economy, the Dow recently notched its first record high since January. Some corporate insiders have much of their net worth tied up in stock, so it could be that they are simply exercising caution. The bull market, already the longest history, can’t last forever. “It’s a very prudent thing for them to unload some shares — no matter how much they like the stock,” said Joe Saluzzi, co-partner at brokerage firm Themis Trading. “It doesn’t necessarily mean they see something wrong.” TrimTabs does not break down how many of the insider sales were pre-planned. The SEC allows executives to schedule stock sales ahead of time to avoid the appearance of insider trading While the captains of Corporate America are cashing out, they are doing the exact opposite with shareholder money.
US public companies have authorized a stunning $827.4 billion of stock buybacks in 2018 — already a record for any year, according to TrimTabs. Apple () alone announced plans last quarter for $100 billion of buybacks.
The flurry of buybacks has been viewed by investors as a sign of confidence among CEOs. “Insiders aren’t announcing buybacks because they think stocks are cheap,” said David Santschi, director of liquidity research at TrimTabs. “What they’re doing with shareholders’ money and their own is quite different.”number of shares outstanding. Corporate America is enjoying record profitability thanks to the strong economy and a big reduction in what they owe Uncle Sam. The Republican tax law reduced the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35% and also gave companies a break on foreign profits that are returned to the United States. The tax windfall has also enabled companies to spend more on job-creating investments like new equipment and research projects. But buybacks are growing even faster. In fact, Goldman Sachs found that buybacks are garnering the largest share of cash spending by S&P 500 companies for the first time in a decade.
Given the spike in buybacks, Saluzzi said it would be odd if insiders are rapidly dumping shares outside of preplanned transactions. “You’ve got to raise your eyebrows and look at what’s going on here,” Saluzzi said.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, as expected, and left its monetary policy outlook for the coming years largely unchanged amid steady economic growth and a strong job market. In a policy statement that marked the end of the era of “accommodative” monetary policy, Fed policymakers lifted the benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 2.00 percent to 2.25 percent. It still foresees another rate hike in December, three more next year, and one increase in 2020 “They took out ‘accommodative,’ but then they clustered more hikes around the median and they edged up their long term, so that’s a little bit hawkish. The question who focuses on what – you never know. “I found that the reactions post-the FOMC are important. And what the market seems to be doing to me is correct, which is the curve is flattening because the Fed is going to hike more than what’s priced into the forward. You might see equities wobble a bit here because I don’t think they got the joke that the Fed’s going to keep going and when that happens, they break something. “Additionally, the removal o the “accommodative” language on policy sent a somewhat hawkish message to financial markets—as this was offset by expectations for stronger growth in 2018 and 2019.
“It was also quite obvious, without them saying it, that they rejected President Trump’s request for them to stop raising interest rates which is their right as an independent Board as well as it is President Trump’s right, in my opinion, to express his reservations.
“One thing here seems clear to me. The government of the United States, as exemplified by the Jobs Cuts and Tax Bill, is trying to grow the economy while the Federal Reserve Bank, is actually trying to slow it down by raising rates, which increases the costs of both corporate and personal borrowing, as well as mortgage rates. “It is quite odd, in my view, that our elected government is going off in one direction while the nation’s central bank is headed off in the opposite direction. It seems that we are at an impasse here and I wonder just how long it can or will continue.”
A new study found a definitive link between weed killers and the death of bees worldwide. Researchers at the University of Texas in Austin looked at potential causes of bee deaths, a phenomenon that has been extensively written about in recent years, and discovered that the active ingredient in Roundup could be the culprit. Glyphosate, according to the study, can disrupt a bee’s gut bacteria and make it more susceptible to contracting pathogens that can eventually lead to its death. “We need better guidelines for glyphosate use, especially regarding bee exposure, because right now the guidelines assume bees are not harmed by the herbicide,” graduate student Erick Motta, who co-led the bee study, told Phys.org. “Our study shows that’s not true.” Bee deaths have been reported on over the last several years as scientists tried to determine what is causing massive die-offs in hives. Experts believe the chemicals in pesticides and herbicides are the likely culprits. The Obama White House even said in 2015 that tighter restrictions on pesticides might be necessary to save honeybees, which pollinate plants and produce honey.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – An Indiana U.S. Senator seen as one of the chamber’s most vulnerable Democrats has a slight edge while four of his Rust Belt Democratic colleagues have solid leads in states President Donald Trump won in 2016, a Reuters poll found. A Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics Poll released on Wednesday found that a majority of likely voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan and Indiana disapprove of the Republican president and more than one-third were “very motivated” to back someone who would oppose his policies. The poll found that Senator Joe Donnelly of Indiana has a 3 percentage point lead among likely voters over Republican businessman Mike Braun. Braun, a former state representative, has positioned himself as a Trump-like candidate who would bring an outsider’s perspective to politics in Vice President Mike Pence’s home state. Democrats are aiming to win two more Senate seats in the Nov. 6 congressional election to take a majority in that chamber and serve as a check on Trump’s agenda. They can ill afford to lose any of the five seats covered by the poll. Trump won the five states after pitching himself as a business-savvy pragmatist who would improve the lives of working class Americans. Two years later, more than half of likely voters in those states think the country is now on the “wrong track,” the poll found. “There are lots of places in this region where economic opportunity has been stifled,” said Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the Center for Politics. Kondik said the Rust Belt frequently shifts its support between parties, in some cases because voters who are frustrated with the lack of economic progress come to the ballot box intent on checking the party in power. This year Democrats have the added advantage of being able to attack an unpopular president as well as Republicans’ deficit-increasing tax plan and their failed effort to dismantle the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, he said. The state polls were conducted online, in English, from Sept. 12 to Sept. 21. They surveyed between 1,074 and 1,181 likely voters in each of five states and weighted the responses according to the latest government population estimates. The polls each have a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of about 3 percentage points, meaning the results could vary in either direction by that much. The results measured how voters felt at the time of the survey. Those feelings may change: In 2016, one in eight Americans said they made their presidential pick in the week before Election Day, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The head of the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit, Michael Brown, has warned that China is outpacing the United States in military development, Defense One reports.Brown, the former CEO of Symantec, co-wrote a paper published last year that analyzed how Chinese investment has affected American technological development. In a recent interview with Defense One, he explained how many people in Silicon Valley and other American technology hubs fail to grasp the importance of the “race” to develop new technology. “While the report is being used as, ‘here’s the justification for … protectionist steps’—And we aren’t arguing against taking any protective steps, because you can’t leave the barn door wide open—the Chinese are a near peer competitor economically,” he said. “They’re quite creative at inventing now. They aren’t just copying technology. We’re in a race and so what are we going to do as a country to deal with that? It has to include what we’re doing protectively on the investment side.” “The Chinese government has taken control of resources to be able to pull what they call their business or commercial sector, which we point out is government-controlled, unlike our own,” Brown said. “So they’re pulling all of those resources together to make technological breakthroughs and really advance science and technology in their own country. [In the paper] we point out that we’ve been the victims of cyber theft and industrial espionage on a much broader scale than any other country has ever perpetrated against the U.S.”
Attorney for Stormy Daniels, Michael Avenatti, earlier this week, claimed to have a client with a third allegation against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. He made the announcement, and tweeted lurid accusations, without offering the identity of the client or any evidence. Today, Avenatti tweeted a name and photo of that client, along with a sworn statement from the alleged victim laying out her serious allegations.
Here is a picture of my client Julie Swetnick. She is courageous, brave and honest. We ask that her privacy and that of her family be respected. pic.twitter.com/auuSeHm5s0
— Michael Avenatti (@MichaelAvenatti) September 26, 2018
In the statement, Julie Swetnick, a current government employee, alleges Kavanaugh and his friend Mark Judge attended a party where she was drugged and gang raped by a series of boys. While she does not accuse Kavanaugh of assaulting her, she claims she witnessed him participate in the gang rapes. In his tweet that included the screenshots, Avenatti asserted that Kavanaugh’s nomination must not go forward without more investigation of the claims.
Below is my correspondence to Mr. Davis of moments ago, together with a sworn declaration from my client. We demand an immediate FBI investigation into the allegations. Under no circumstances should Brett Kavanaugh be confirmed absent a full and complete investigation. pic.twitter.com/QHbHBbbfbE
— Michael Avenatti (@MichaelAvenatti) September 26, 2018
Paragraph 13 of the sworn statement (below) has the specific personal allegation.
In approximately 1982, I became the victim of one of these “gang” or “train” rapes where Mark Judge and Brett Kavanaugh were present. Shortly after the incident, I shared what had transpired with at least two other people. During the incident, I was incapacitated without my consent and unable to fight off the boys raping me. I believe I was drugged using Quaaludes or something similar placed in what I was drinking.”
Davis’ statement (below) also alleges that she witnessed Kavanaugh waiting in a rape line for his “turn” in the gang rape of another woman, whom they allegedly incapacitated.
I also witnessed efforts by Mark Judge, Brett Kavanaugh and others to cause girls to become inebriated and disoriented so they could then be “gang raped” in a side room or bedroom by a “train” of numerous boys. I have a firm recollection of seeing boys lined up outside rooms at many of these parties waiting for their “turn” with a girl inside the room. These boys included Mark Judge and Brett Kavanaugh.”
Below are the images of the statement shared by Avenatti.
[Featured image via Getty Images]
The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter point Wednesday and indicate it plans to keep hiking them in what many expect to be a hawkish message for markets. Wall Street economists expect the Fed to make a number of changes that reinforces a hawkish tone, including raising its growth forecasts, dropping language that says its policy is accommodative and sounding more confident about the outlook. The Fed releases its statement and revised economic and interest rate forecasts at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell holds a briefing at 2:30 p.m. Ahead of the meeting, the 2-year Treasury note yield Tuesday rose to 2.84 percent, its highest level since 2008. The 2-year most reflects Fed policy but the 10-year was also moving higher, touching just below its year high of 3.12 percent Tuesday.
“I think there’s one very key thing we have to watch…which is they increase their long-term growth forecast. Currently it’s 1.8 percent,” said Jim Caron, portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “If they take it up to 1.9 percent, that’s a pretty important signal.” A higher longer term growth rate is both hawkish and bullish. It means the Fed is also likely to raise its near term forecasts, but it also means it sees a sustainable higher pace of growth for the economy, implying higher corporate earnings growth. Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short rate strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, also expects the Fed to boost its growth forecasts, for the near term and the longer term. “I don’t think the Fed is going to come out and sound like they’re on the war path to raising rates. I think they’re going to sound more measured— ‘the data has been strong, and we’re more confident in our forecast,'” said Cabana. Cabana said he expects the Fed to “sound more confident in the outlook, more confident to keep going the way they have been going, and I think the market will probably not be sorry it’s pricing in ongoing rate increases from the Fed.” He said the market is now pricing two hikes for next year, nearly double what it was expecting just several weeks ago. “It’s just a fact the data in the U.S. continues to be strong. Some of the worst fears over trade were not realized,” he said. He expects the Fed will keep its forecast of four hikes for this year, three for next, one for 2020, and in a new forecast, add about a half a hike in 2021. That would bring the fed funds rate to 3.50 percent.
The average rate on a 12-month CD is not even a half point
When the Federal Reserve had interest rates near zero, critics in Congress and on Wall Street would argue that the central bank was waging a “war on savers.” Few are making that argument now that the Fed has increased interest rates seven times, and on Wednesday the central bank is due to make its eighth increase. Yet savers effectively have seen just one rate increase. According to RateWatch, the average rate that savers get on a benchmark $10,000 minimum, 12-month certificate of deposit was just 0.43% in August. Meanwhile, the federal funds rate was 1.91%, and is expected to head higher on Wednesday when the Federal Open Market Committee meets.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell back in February acknowledged that retail deposit rates were “sticky” on the way up. “They generally come up with a lag,” he told the House Financial Services Committee. Banks have profited. Net interest income in the second quarter rose 9% to $134.1 billion, with 85% of banks reporting year-over-year increases, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. reported. Net interest margins rose to 3.38%, a six-year high. It’s not always the case that depositors fare worse. Particularly during the recession, banks kept savings rates high since funding was scarce.
High levels of confidence tend to be followed by weak market returns
U.S. consumers are feeling very good about the economy, but history suggests that may ultimately lead to investor disappointment. Multiple reads of confidence have come in extremely strong lately, and while many view this as an optimistic sign for spending and demand, many market watchers also see it as a contrarian signal, one that suggests a complacency building in the market. That dynamic, in turn, could signal tepid future returns. On Tuesday, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index jumped to its highest level in 18 years, signaling a level of optimism that is near all-time highs. That comes on the heels of a reading of small-business sentiment, which hit a record in August. And as pointed out by Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, a Gallup poll showed that the percentage of Americans who see economic issues as their biggest problem “is at the lowest level in decades.”
Previous lows on with this poll question have occurred near market peaks, including in the late 1990s and before the financial crisis.
Percentage of Americans who see economic issues as the most important problem is at the lowest level in decades@Gallup @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/zFqASpB582
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 25, 2018
According to Charlie Bilello, director of research at Pension Partners, high levels of confidence tend to be followed by “below-average returns and a lower probability of a positive return” going forward. “When there’s good news in the economy (high consumer confidence), investors are willing to pay a higher multiple for a given level of earnings than when there’s bad news (lower consumer confidence),” he wrote in a blog post published in August. “That’s important when it comes to stocks because higher valuations tend to be associated with below average forward returns.” Per Bilello’s data, when consumer confidence readings are in the top decile, the average forward return for the S&P 500 SPX, -0.13% over the coming year is 3.8%. When confidence is in its lowest decile—meaning consumers are at their least confident about the market—the average return is significantly higher, at 19.3%. Overall, the average return is 12.2%. When confidence is low, that tends to be following by strong gains for an extended period. According the data, investors have historically seen double-digit returns every year for seven years (on an annualized basis) following weak confidence readings. Furthermore, there is an extremely high likelihood of positive returns following low confidence readings. On the other hand, when confidence is high, as it is now, returns are slightly negative on a two-year, three-year, and four-year basis. In addition, there is a greater-than-even chance of negative returns in the subsequent years, as demonstrated by the table below.
Torsten Sløk, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, recently wrote that confidence was “at levels normally indicating a recession is imminent.” On a related note, strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. recently wrote that the current strength of the economy and stock market could embolden President Donald Trump on geopolitical issues, risking “a major miscalculation from sanctions that are tough to calibrate.” While consumers are extremely optimistic about the economy, many on Wall Street aren’t, or, at least, they are unabashedly euphoric. According to the latest survey of investor sentiment by the American Association of Individual Investors, the number of investors who describe themselves as bullish on the market—meaning they expect prices will be higher in six months—is below the historical average.
Presidential influence. A trade war with China. Rising interest rates. Recession-proofing of US banks.
Those are just some of the topics Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to face at a press conference on Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day policy-setting meeting.
Policymakers gathered in Washington this week are expected to raise the benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point for the third time this year, to a range of 2% to 2.25%. The rate hike is widely expected by investors. What’s not as well known is how the Fed is contending with risks to economic growth, including the ballooning trade war and rising oil prices, or with President Donald Trump’s desire to keep rates low. What’s more, in recent weeks, Fed officials have appeared publicly divided on how fast the Fed will need to act next year and beyond. The central bank has penciled in a fourth rate hike later this year, then three more in 2019 and one in 2020. Analysts will be watching for any possible changes when policymakers update their forecast on Wednesday. All eyes will be on Powell, who will have an opportunity to respond publicly to Trump’s criticisms about the Fed’s policies. Over the summer, the president took the rare step of repeatedly going after his Fed chair, who he said was undermining America’s competitive edge against China by raising interest rates. Since Trump took office, the Fed has raised rates five times, including twice this year under Powell. The Fed is gradually raising rates as the economy gains strength.
“I’m not thrilled with his raising of interest rates, no. I’m not thrilled,” Trump, who appointed Powell to lead the central bank, said during an interview with Reuters in August. “I should be given some help by the Fed.“
Presidents have historically avoided commenting on the Fed’s policies. The central bank is designed to be independent from political interference. The Fed hasn’t commented on the president’s criticism. But Powell expressed a deep commitment to the central bank’s independence during an interview with American Public Media’s “Marketplace” radio show in July. Fed officials are already worried about how the trade war may affect the US economy. But as tensions rise, how is the Fed calculating and planning for those risks and uncertainties? That’s the question investors want answered. Policymakers have said a “major escalation” of trade disputes could speed inflation and cause businesses to pull back on investments, according to minutes of their July meeting. Such turmoil, participants noted, could reduce household spending and disrupt companies’ supply chains. So far, Powell has been publicly cautious about the impact that trade tensions could have on wages and capital spending. “We don’t see it in the numbers yet, but we’ve heard a rising chorus of concern” about businesses scaling back plans for capital spending, Powell told lawmakers in July. He also said it’s challenging to forecast the economic impact. Since Powell said that, the Trump administration has followed through on its threats to impose a 10% tariff on $200 billion in Chinese goods, on top of other tariffs levied on China earlier this year. The most recent level is set to rise next year to 25% if the trade impasse is not resolved. Efforts to restart talks between the world’s two largest economies have also waned, adding to uncertainty about how long the trade fight will continue. Some officials, like Fed Governor Lael Brainard, have argued that the recent tax cuts and a spike in government spending will further heat the economy and require higher interest rates over the next year or two. In August, Powell defended the Fed’s strategy of raising rates gradually at a conference in Wyoming. He said it keeps the economy on even keel, as long as inflation is stable and unemployment continues to fall. For the first time, Fed officials are also weighing whether to trigger a mechanism that would require banks to hold even more capital as a buffer against a financial calamity. The regulatory tool, created under the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, requires banks to pad their balance sheets with additional capital during good economic times to help soften the fallout in periods of hardship. It’s never been used before, and banks don’t want to see it take effect. But Fed officials are debating whether to push forward to lessen the likelihood of another financial crisis.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Prime Minister Theresa May signalled on Tuesday that she would prefer a ‘no-deal’ Brexit to the offer currently put forward by the European Union, stressing that Britain needs to see counter-proposals from the EU to move Brexit negotiations forward. Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May makes a statement on Brexit negotiations with the European Union at Number 10 Downing Street, London September 21, 2018 . Jack Taylor/Pool via Reuters May last week issued an angry edict to Brussels when a summit of EU leaders which had been billed as a chance to generate momentum towards a deal in October or November ended in a blunt dismissal of British proposals. “I’ve always said no deal is better than a bad deal,” May told reporters. “I think a bad deal would be a deal that broke up the United Kingdom,” May said when asked whether a no-deal Brexit was better than one similar to the existing Canada-EU trade deal. Her spokesman said later that May was specifically referring to the type of deal the EU is currently offering on future trade, which Britain believes will split England, Wales and Scotland from Northern Ireland by insisting Northern Ireland adhere to different customs rules. Her position also effectively rules out alternative Brexit proposals put forward by rebel eurosceptic members of her own party, which are based on a wide-ranging free trade agreement similar to that agreed between the EU and Canada. Speaking to reporters on her way to New York to attend the United Nations General Assembly, May said she welcomed comments from European Council President Donald Tusk that the bloc still wanted to strike a deal, but added that the onus was still on the EU to break the deadlock on Chequers. “If they have concerns, they need to detail those concerns to us and if they have counter-proposals, let’s hear the counter proposals and then we can discuss those,” she said. May said the opposition Labour Party’s Brexit plans were not in the national interest after Labour’s Brexit policy chief said the party was likely to vote against any deal she reaches with the European Union. Even if May is able to secure a deal on Brexit with Brussels, it is far from certain she will be able to get the terms approved by parliament. In addition to Labour lawmakers, many in her own party also disagree with her exit plans. If she loses a vote, May has said Britain will leave the EU without a deal. But, in the likely chaos around a parliamentary defeat she could also face a leadership challenge, calls for a new national election, and even a second Brexit referendum. “I still do believe that we can get a good deal … at that point all members of parliament will have a clear choice,” she said. “They’ll have to recognise, looking at their vote, that what we’re doing is delivering on the vote of the referendum, delivering on the vote of the British people.”
A source told Reuters that Rosenstein had spent the weekend contemplating whether he should resign after a New York Times report last week said he had suggested secretly recording Trump in 2017. The White House announced the meeting on Monday after a flurry of conflicting reports about whether Rosenstein, a frequent target of Trump’s anger, would be leaving the post. “At the request of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, he and President Trump had an extended conversation to discuss the recent news stories,” White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said on Twitter. She said the meeting will be on Thursday because Trump was at the U.N. General Assembly on Monday and has meetings with world leaders later in the week. The Rosenstein furor, kicked off by unconfirmed reports that he had verbally resigned, underscored the mounting tension in the White House over the investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller into Russia’s role in the 2016 presidential election. There had been widespread speculation that Trump would fire Rosenstein since Friday when a New York Times report said that in 2017 Rosenstein had suggested secretly recording the president and recruiting Cabinet members to invoke a constitutional amendment to remove him from office.The Times said none of those proposals came to fruition. Rosenstein denied the report as “inaccurate and factually incorrect.” Shortly after the Times story, Trump told supporters at a rally in Missouri that there is “a lingering stench” at the Justice Department and that “we’re going to get rid of that, too.” Rosenstein’s departure would prompt questions about the future of Mueller’s investigation and whether Trump, who has called the probe a “witch hunt,” would seek to remove Mueller.
In may not be trigonometry, but if you do the math, there is a great divide in how an estimated $2 trillion will be paid back in the near future. For some analysts, US student debt has shades of the subprime crisis that felled the economy back in 2007
Next crash will be ‘worse than the Great Depression’: experts
But this time, instead of bricks and mortar for collateral, the new toxic debt is “secured” by diplomas, the supply in many cases far exceeding demand. “What is the collateral there? I will give you my English thesis on Henry James in return?” asked P.J. O’Rourke, the best-selling author and economic satirist, of the riskiest student loans. O’Rourke told said, while promoting his new book, “None of My Business” (Grove Atlantic), that mounting unsecured debt such as student loans is setting the economy up for financial disaster. “We are headed for trouble,” he said. At its current pace, student debt is careening toward $2 trillion within the next three years, according to debt calculations. By contrast, in March 2007, in the lead-up to the financial crisis, the value of subprime mortgages was estimated at $1.3 trillion.
Global debt has been soaring to stratospheric levels, seemingly without anything to stop its runaway path. And that unbridled spending could very well trigger America’s worst economic crisis in a decade. To be sure, the amount of debt held by both mature and emerging markets tracked by the Institute of International Finance rose to a record $247 trillion in the first quarter of 2018, up 11.1 percent from the same period a year ago, Reuters reported. “We think the major economies are on the cusp of turning into the worst recessions we have seen in 10 years,” Murray Gunn, chief of global research at Elliott Wave International, told the New York Post. “Should the [U.S.] economy start to shrink, and our analysis suggests that it will, the high nominal levels of debt will instantly become a very big issue,” Gunn said, according to the Post. The global-debt report, recently released by global bank-lobbying group IIF, said the ratio of debt to gross domestic product of these nations, which include the Group of Seven industrialized nations and the majority of emerging market economies, increased to 318 percent. That is the first quarterly increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio since the third quarter of 2016. “With global growth losing some momentum and becoming more divergent, and U.S. rates rising steadily, worries about credit risk are returning to the fore – including in many mature economies,” the IIF said. Since December 2015, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates seven times to a range of 1.75 percent to 2.00 percent, with more increases expected. Debt levels for household, non-financial corporate and general government sectors rose to $186 trillion in the first quarter of 2018. Financial sector debt rose to a record high $61 trillion. Emerging market debt rose by $2.5 trillion to a record $58.5 trillion in the first quarter. Meanwhile, it’s corporate sector debt that investors should be worried about, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief Americas economist at Natixis. “The corporate sector is highly leveraged and could be very vulnerable to higher interest rates,” LaVorgna told CNBC, which cited his research note that warned a primary reason corporate debt-to-GDP is so high is thanks to interest rates being historically low due to quantitative easing and forward guidance. “Firms have used artificially low rates to borrow in the capital markets and only buy back stock in the equity market,” LaVorgna said. “The inherent instability of debt over equity financing suggests that the next downturn could hit investment spending unusually hard.”
Oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia signaled on Sunday that they did not see any rush to increase output, despite pressure from President Trump to pump more oil and hold down prices. Meeting in Algiers, officials from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied governments, including Russia, said that after having increased production in recent months, customers now have adequate supplies. “Since June, Saudi Arabia has met the demand for every barrel that has been requested,” the Saudi oil minister, Khalid al-Falih, said at a news conference after the meeting. The Saudis and their allies appear to be trying to walk a fine line between accommodating Mr. Trump and not putting so much oil into the market that prices crash — as they did in 2014, damaging their petroleum-dependent economies. “They are trying to assuage Trump while keeping internal OPEC division from blowing up in the open,” said Antoine Halff, a founding partner of Kayrros, a research firm based in Paris. With oil prices recently hovering at around $80 a barrel for Brent crude, Mr. Trump has used Twitter and other means to lean on OPEC to increase oil supplies. His messages have mainly been directed at Saudi Arabia, the largest OPEC producer. Last week, Mr. Trump renewed his pressure. “We protect the countries of the Middle East, they would not be safe for very long without us, and yet they continue to push for higher and higher oil prices!” he wrote on Twitter on Thursday. “The OPEC monopoly must get prices down now!. Analysts say Mr. Trump wants to try to head off higher gasoline prices in the United States that could hurt Republican candidates in the coming midterm elections. “Sitting presidents in an election year have a proverbial fear of high oil prices,” Mr. Halff said. The agreement by OPEC and Russia in late 2016 to restrain oil production has contributed to a nearly 20 percent rise in Brent crude prices this year. Mr. Trump’s decision this year to reimpose sanctions on Iran has also helped push up prices, analysts say. Traders are calculating that exports from Iran, a major producer, may dry up in the coming months. The full sanctions do not kick in until November, but analysts say Iranian sales are already falling as buyers in Europe and Asia cut orders because they fear being hit with financial penalties by Washington. Responding to pressure from Mr. Trump, the Saudis and allies like Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have increased production since May but not by the full one million barrels a day that Mr. Falih had indicated at OPEC’s last meeting in June. In a statement on Sunday, the OPEC group urged countries that could produce more oil “to work with customers to meet their demand during the remaining months of 2018.”
“Americans are hitting the brake in a midterm, and trying to send the signal that they’re not satisfied,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollsters at Hart Research Associates. “The public is clearly saying, once again, they want to shake up the status quo,” added Democratic pollster Fred Yang.
House leader Nancy Pelosi are potent in individual races; and that nearly 70 percent of voters are satisfied with the economy. In the survey, which was conducted Sept. 16-19, 52 percent of registered voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 40 percent who want the Republicans in charge.
That 12-point lead for Democrats — their highest of the cycle in the poll — is an increase from August, when they held an 8-point edge, 50 percent to 42 percent, although the change is within the survey’s margin of error.
In the larger pool of registered voters, McInturff points to warning signs for Republicans. They trail Democrats among moderates and independents by more than 30 points; they’re losing women ages 50 and older by nearly 20 points; and they’re behind among voters living in competitive congressional districts by 12 points, 53 percent to 41 percent. Additionally, a combined 59 percent of voters say they’d like to see either “a great deal of change” or “quite a bit of change” in the direction Trump has been leading the country. That includes 61 percent of independents and even a third of Republican respondents. And by a 42 percent-to-31 percent margin, voters say their message in November will be for more Democrats to serve as a check and balance to Trump and the congressional Republicans, instead of Republicans who will help Trump and the GOP pass their agenda. President Trump’s job rating in the poll stands at 44 percent approve, 52 percent disapprove — essentially unchanged from August’s poll.
A Chinese hospital ship has docked in Venezuela, where for the next week it will provide free health care to local patients. Venezuela’s Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López, went to the port of La Guaira to welcome the Chinese crew. He said that the Peace Ark’s visit was agreed by President Nicolás Maduro during a visit to Beijing last week.
Venezuela agreed at the time to increase its exports of oil to China, which is one of its main creditors.
Venezuela’s economic crisis has led to severe shortages of food and medicines and the collapse of public services. The opposition says the presence of a Chinese hospital ship in Venezuela shows the extent of the humanitarian crisis. Mr Padrino López thanked China for the gesture of friendship and said that both countries would benefit. “It is a pleasure to have this ship in Venezuela, which has arrived here after travelling to more than 40 countries” he said. “This is how true diplomacy is done: with concrete cooperation actions,” added Mr Padrino López. The Venezuelan government blames an international boycott led by the United States for Venezuela’s economic crisis. On Friday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo promised to unveil “in the coming days” a series of actions against “Venezuelan leadership folks”. President Donald Trump has previously called President Maduro a dictator and accused his government of illegally detaining, beating up and killing opposition activists.Hundreds of thousands of people have fled the country over the past year, as the crisis worsened. According to United Nations figures, 2.3 million people left Venezuela between 2014 and June 2018. Mr Maduro travelled to China last week, looking for support to help rebuild the economy. He said he had signed 28 trade and investment deals with China.
The two countries also agreed to invest $5bn (£3.8bn) to help rebuild Venezuela’s ailing oil industry.
SHANGHAI/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – China’s foreign ministry on Saturday summoned the U.S. ambassador in Beijing to protest Washington’s decision to sanction a Chinese military agency and its director for purchasing Russian fighter jets and an advanced surface-to-air missile system. Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang summoned Ambassador Terry Branstad to lodge “stern representations” and protest the sanctions, the foreign ministry said. Earlier, Chinese defence ministry spokesman Wu Qian said China’s decision to buy fighter jets and missile systems from Russia was a normal act of cooperation between sovereign countries, and the United States had “no right to interfere”. On Thursday, the U.S. State Department imposed sanctions on China’s Equipment Development Department (EED), the branch of the military responsible for weapons procurement, after it engaged in “significant transactions” with Rosoboronexport, Russia’s main arms exporter. The sanctions are related to China’s purchase of 10 SU-35 combat aircraft in 2017 and S-400 surface-to-air missile system-related equipment in 2018, the State Department said. A senior U.S. State Department official on Saturday said China was the only country that had taken possession of the advanced S-400 surface-to-air missile system, in a breach of a U.S. sanctions law imposed in response to Russia’s “malign behaviour”. The official, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, insisted that the sanctions were aimed at Moscow, not Beijing. The so-called Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, or CAATSA, was signed into law in 2017 to punish Russia for meddling in U.S. elections, aggression in Ukraine and involvement in Syria’s civil war. “China is the first country in the world to use both of those systems,” the official said. “Both of those systems are extremely sophisticated and very high value.” The mobile S-400 batteries, which include radars, a control system, and missiles with a range of up to 250 miles (402.34 km), was first deployed in Russia in 2007 and is considered Moscow’s most effective defence against aircraft, missiles and drones. Russia has deployed S-400s in Syria, according to official Russian news media, and U.S. officials have been discussing the interest other nations, particularly NATO ally Turkey, have expressed in buying the system. Washington has expressed concern that Turkey’s planned deployment of S-400s could threaten some U.S.-made weapons and other technology used by Turkey, including the F-35 fighter jet. The official said the move against the Chinese agency was not discretionary, but was made because Beijing broke U.S. law. “We hope it will be paid attention to because … our goal is to prevent these types of transactions,” he added. The U.S. sanctions will block the EED and its director, Li Shangfu, from applying for export licences and participating in the U.S. financial system. “The U.S. approach is a blatant violation of the basic norms of international relations, a full manifestation of hegemony, and a serious breach of the relations between the two countries and their two militaries,” Wu said in a notice posted on the Chinese defence ministry’s official Wechat account. He warned that the United States would face “consequences” if it did not immediately revoke the sanctions.
UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – He has chaired board meetings, cabinet meetings and starred in a reality television show, but on Wednesday U.S. President Donald Trump will wield the gavel in the United Nations Security Council to denounce Iran for what it sees as its malign regional behavior. Trump is able to preside over the 15-member council as the United States holds the monthly rotating presidency, which coincides with the annual gathering of world leaders at the United Nations in New York this week. “I am sure that’s going to be the most watched Security Council meeting ever,” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley told reporters. But despite the unpredictable nature of Trump, some diplomats aren’t expecting a reality television performance in the Security Council, where nearly every member is likely to be represented by their prime minister or president except Russia and China, which are expected to send ministers “I don’t think it will be that entertaining at all,” said one senior U.N. diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Even those who don’t like him, the attitude of all other heads of state and government in a public meeting when faced with any president of the United States of America is to be on their best behavior,” the diplomat said. It is rare for the council – formed in 1945 to maintain international peace and security – to meet at the head-of-state and government level. This will be the third time the body is chaired by a U.S. president. It has the ability to impose sanctions or authorize the use of military force. Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama presided over meetings in 2009 and 2014 on nuclear non-proliferation and foreign terrorist fighters. In both cases the council adopted resolutions on the topics under discussion. U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley said there are no plans to adopt a resolution at Wednesday’s meeting. “We want to make sure (Iran) understands the world is watching. That’s the biggest reason for this meeting,” she said earlier this month. The topic of the meeting will be non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, a broad issue that allows leaders around the horse-shoe table to raise a variety of subjects from North Korea to chemical weapons attacks in Syria and Britain. However, Trump signaled on Twitter he will zero in on Iran, when he posted: “I will chair a United Nations Security Council meeting on Iran.” Tehran has accused the United States of abusing the power of the Security Council president. The U.S. concept note on the meeting circulated to Security Council members does not specifically mention any countries. “The purpose of this meeting is to discuss ways the Security Council can better enforce the resolutions it has adopted … to counter the spread and use of the world’s most dangerous weapons,” it reads.
Ten years ago, it was too-easy credit that brought financial markets to their knees. Today, it could be a global debt of $247 trillion that causes the next crash. After a decade of escalating US household debt brought on by low wages and the national debt more than doubling over the same time frame, to $21 trillion, debt could soon put the brakes on this economic recovery, analysts warn. “We think the major economies are on the cusp of this turning into the worst recession we have seen in 10 years,” said Murray Gunn, head of global research at Elliott Wave International. And in a note, he added: “Should the [US] economy start to shrink, and our analysis suggests that it will, the high nominal levels of debt will instantly become a very big issue.”
- US household debt of $13.3 trillion now exceeds the 2008 peak. That’s due in part to mortgage lending, which is hovering near its decade-ago level of $9 trillion-plus.
- Student loans outstanding have skyrocketed from $611 billion in 2008 to around $1.5 trillion today.
- Auto loans, at nearly $1.25 trillion, have exceeded the 2008 total, while credit card balances are just as high now as before the Great Recession.
Meanwhile, global debt — a result of central bankers flooding economies with cheap money to lift them out of an funk — is now $247 trillion, up from $177 trillion in 2008. That is close to 2 ¹/₂ times the size of the global economy.
“We won’t be able to call it a recession, it’s going to be worse than the Great Depression,” said economic commentator Peter Schiff, forecasting a major economic downturn as early as the tail end of the Trump presidency’s first term. “The US economy is in so much worse shape than it was a decade ago.” Economic theorists say insurmountable debt is the big kahuna. The huge sums today certainly fed the boom times. But since it must eventually be repaid, the tipping point will come when a wave of defaults by overwhelmed borrowers — potentially squeezed by rising interest rates — leads to a widespread reduction in spending and incomes, economists explain Although Schiff has gotten some calls wrong in the past — he incorrectly predicted the US Federal Reserve would fail in its roundabout quantitative easing campaign to “reflate” housing and stocks in the wake of the financial crisis — he is convinced he is right on the money this time. “I think we are going to have a dollar crisis — you think the Turkish lira looks bad now, wait till you see when the dollar is imploding and we have a sovereign debt crisis in the US,” he told The Post. “The US government is going to be given a choice between defaulting on the debt, or else massive runaway inflation.” Earlier this year, Goldman Sachs said the fiscal outlook for the US was “not good,” and could threaten the nation’s economic security during the next recession. Schiff dismisses the latest batch of positive indicators, including the lowest unemployment rate in a generation, soaring business confidence spurred by President Trump’s tax cuts and the Dow hitting record highs. “Obviously, there is a whole lot of optimism — but there is a very good chance the US economy is in recession within the next two years. This is already the second-longest economic expansion in history,” Schiff said, adding that recent dips in new housing starts and auto sales may be red flags. Gunn sees a brutal deflationary spiral ahead in the next downturn. “People will look to central banks to help them out, but the authorities will be found wanting,” Gunn warned. “Our prediction is that central banks will go from being feted for ‘saving the world’ in 2008 to being vilified for being impotent in the coming deflationary crash.”
All bull markets come to an end, even the 35-year Great Bond Bull Market.
The US Treasury 2-year yield crept up 3 basis points during the week, to 2.81% at the close on Friday, the highest since June 2008. In a month or two, as the fourth rate hike for 2018 and more rate hikes next year are getting further baked in, the 2-year yield will cross the 3% mark! Just two years ago, many soothsayers on Wall Street said this would never happen again – that the Fed, in fact, could never raise rates to this point. But here we are.
The 10-year yield rose 8 basis points during the week, to 3.07%. This widened the spread between the 2-year and the 10-year yield on Friday to a still hair-thin 26 basis points. This chart shows that spread going back to 2007:
For periods in 2006 and 2007, the 2-year yield was higher than the 10-year yield, and thus the yield curve was “inverted.” At the left end of the chart, denoting 2007, the line dipped below zero. The Great Recession officially began in December 2007, by which time the yield curve was no longer inverted as the Fed had started cutting short-term rates. This scenario has played out repeatedly in past decades, when the “inverted yield curve” phenomenon was followed by recessions or worse. Inverted yield curves didn’t cause those recessions; but they were reliable predictors of them. The chart below of the 2-year and 10-year yields shows the last two recessions (shaded areas), the yield curve inversions before those recessions, and the steepening of the yield curves following the recessions. The yield curve inverted where the black line is above the red line (click on the chart to enlarge):
Starting in 2008, the Fed imposed its yield-repression policy on the Treasury market, thus totally manipulating the market. But since December 2015, the Fed has been “gradually” stepping away from those methods of yield repression. So the yield curve is not showing free-market behavior; it’s showing the Fed’s manipulations, and the side-effects of the Fed’s backing away from these manipulations.
There will be another recession. There always is at some point. A recession is an essential and necessary part of the normal business cycle. The only question is when
During these 35 years, yields dropped during each recession as the Fed cut rates, but then yields didn’t return to prior highs. Instead they wobbled from lower lows to lower lows. And after each recession, their peaks remained lower than their peaks before the recession. Nick Bit: This time rates will go negative…And the great recession will turn into a Great Depression
The prime minister said it was now up to the European Union to provide an alternative Brexit deal
Embattled British Prime Minister Theresa May on Friday warned that Brexit talks had hit an impasse and called on European leaders to present new proposals as negotiations between the two sides turn increasingly acrimonious. Following a tense meeting with her EU counterparts earlier this week in Salzburg, where her post-Brexit plans were rejected as being unworkable, May said it was now up to European leaders to smooth the path for Britain’s departure from the European Union. “We now need to hear from the EU what the real issues are and what their alternative is so that we can discuss them,” May said, standing in front of two Union Jack flags in Downing Street. “Until we do, we cannot make progress.” Investors are becoming increasingly nervous that the U.K. could crash out of the EU without a deal. The pound GBPUSD, -1.4169% slipped further against the dollar DXY, +0.34% and the euro EURUSD, -0.2547% as May spoke, adding to losses earlier in the day. The pound was down 1.5% against the dollar and 1% against the euro.
The retail giant says tariffs put a commitment to purchase ‘$250 billion in products that support American jobs’ at risk
Walmart Inc. has sent a letter to U.S. Trade Ambassador Robert Lighthizer warning that proposed tariffs on $200 billion on Chinese goods would hurt consumers and American businesses.The letter, dated September 6, focuses on what Walmart WMT, +0.16% says will be the repercussions of the tariffs, which would apply to goods like food and beverages, personal care products like shampoo, detergents, motor vehicles and paper goods like napkins. Walmart is the biggest retailer in the U.S.The tariffs were initially proposed in July and are scheduled to go into effect on September 24. The 10% tax on Chinese imports will rise to 25% on January 1, 2019, according to members of the Trump administration. China said it would impose tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods. And China’s Commerce Ministry has vowed retaliation and says the proposed U.S. plan has led to “uncertainty” for negotiations between the two countries. “Should the tariffs go into effect, Walmart customers will face cost increases for essential items like car seats, cribs, backpacks, hats, pet products and bicycles,” Walmart’s letter says. The company also said that tariffs would put a commitment to purchase an additional $250 billion in products that support American jobs in jeopardy. “For lower-income families, a 25% tax on these items would be a serious burden on household finances,” Walmart wrote. “Walmart and our suppliers will pay the cost of increased duties, which are simply taxes levied on products at the border. As a result, either consumers will pay more, suppliers will receive less, retail margins will be lower, or consumers will buy fewer products or forego purchases altogether.” Walmart outlined the hurdles in finding alternate suppliers, including safety issues on products for children, and the fact that China is the primary or sole source of imports for many products. There are also requirements that new suppliers have to meet, and costs that could come from the change. The retailer also says that it serves as an exporter of many goods through channels like Walmart China. Many of these items face tariffs as well. Cherries, for example, face 50% duties and, according to Walmart, have seen sales and margins slip. Other U.S. items of concern include beef, pork, nuts and wine, which are subject to Chinese retaliation. The National Retail Federation has also chimed in, with the organization’s President Matthew Shay saying that “thousands” of businesses consider this a “tax on American families.” The NRF has joined a coalition of more than 100 groups called Americans for Free Trade that will oppose tariffs and partnered with Farmers for Free Trade on a campaign that will host town hall events and perform outreach to Congress and the Trump administration on the issue. Events are planned for Chicago, Nashville, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
“It’s disappointing that, despite the voices of those impacted, the administration continues to advance harmful tariff policies that threaten to weaken the U.S. economy,” the statement said. “We cannot afford further escalation, especially with the holiday shopping season right around the corner.”
The Retail Industry Leaders Association says it is “disappointed” by the tariff announcement as well.
China already shows ‘signs of reducing their level of [oil] imports’: analyst
There are still several weeks before U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil actually kick in, but expectations of tight crude inventories already have contributed to much of this year’s gain in global prices. The rise has come despite concerns over potentially lower energy demand and plans by two of the world’s biggest producers to boost output. “The markets are always forward-looking,” said Tamar Essner, energy director at Nasdaq IR Intelligence. “Exports from Iran are already down about 35%, when you look at crude and condensate [a very light oil] together,” since President Donald Trump announced the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in May. The deal between Iran and six world powers and the European Union was made to ensure that Tehran’s nuclear program had a peaceful purpose, rather than to make nuclear weapons. “The market has really been surprised by the degree of enforcement from the U.S.,” Essner said. In the past, she adds, Washington had “targeted reductions in exports” with sanctions, but the current administration has “focused on elimination” of exports from Iran, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ third-largest producer. Nations such as South Korea have reached full compliance with the sanctions, and “critically, we’ve also seen China already showing signs of reducing their level of imports,” Essner said, noting that a buildup of Iranian oil in offshore storage shows that “it’s been harder for Iran to find buyers.” U.S. allies have until Nov. 4 to end imports of oil from that country.Since Trump’s announcement in early May through mid-September, the price of Brent crude LCOX8, +0.91% the global benchmark, climbed roughly 7%. It settled at $78.60 a barrel on Thursday, up about 18% since the year began. “European companies will almost certainly comply with these sanctions to avoid fines and confrontation with the U.S.,” said Sebastian Leburn, senior portfolio manager of Boston Private. “About a third of Iran oil is exported to Europe, and this is where the curtailment will be most pronounced.” Iran’s crude and condensate exports averaged 1.92 million barrels a day in August, down from 2.32 million in July, according to estimates from S&P Global Platts. Saudi Arabia and Russia have been trying to ensure market stability in the aftermath of the Iran sanctions, but some question their ability to make up for the lost barrels of crude. In June, OPEC and allied producers said they would rein in production curbs implemented in January 2017. That could raise daily output by one million barrels, to help offset a possible supply shortage from the Iran sanctions and production losses in Venezuela and elsewhere. A committee of OPEC and non-OPEC producers was expected to discuss how best allocate the production increase at a meeting in Algiers on Sept. 23. However, it’s doubtful that Saudi Arabia or Russia can make up for the lost oil, maintains Campbell Faulkner, a senior data analyst at EOXLive. “Neither country has the swing production it did a number of years ago.” It’s more likely that U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude prices CLX8, +1.00% will spike into the $100 range, prompting production from drilled-but-uncompleted wells to ramp up, “along with greater U.S. exports to ease the tight market,” said Faulkner. That “will not replace the totality of the loss, but it, along with marginal production increases globally, can soak the market to prevent” oil from going into the $130 range. Trump has imposed tariffs on, and plans even more, on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of goods from China, the world’s largest energy consumer. The “bigger factor through the rest of the year is likely demand rather than supply,” said Brian Youngberg, senior energy analyst at Edward Jones, and the “real” threat to oil demand comes from the “broader economic downturn in emerging markets as a whole, not just China.”
Wells Fargo is lowering its employee headcount by 5 to 10 percent in the next three years as part of the bank’s ongoing turnaround plan, the company announced Thursday. “We are continuing to transform Wells Fargo to deliver what customers want — including innovative, customer-friendly products and services — and evolving our business model to meet those needs in a more streamlined and efficient manner,” the bank’s Chief Executive Officer Tim Sloan said in a press release. Wells Fargo has 265,000 employees, meaning the reduction would result in a loss of between 13,250 and 26,500 jobs. The decline will be a mix of displacements and team member attrition, Sloan said. The move is part of Wells Fargo’s “ongoing transformation, which addresses industry trends and changes in customer behavior, during a regularly scheduled companywide town hall meeting,” Sloan said. The company, which has $1.9 trillion in assets, blamed “changing customer preferences,” including the “adoption of digital self-service capabilities,” as a key catalyst. Shares had little reaction to the news, and were last up by about 0.8 percent.
President Donald Trump’s former personal attorney, Michael Cohen, has participated over the last month in multiple interview sessions lasting for hours with investigators from the office of special counsel, Robert Mueller, sources tell ABC News. Add Russia Investigation as an interest to stay up to date on the latest Russia Investigation news, video, and analysis from ABC News. The special counsel’s questioning of Cohen, one of the president’s closest associates over the past decade, has focused primarily on all aspects of Trump’s dealings with Russia — including financial and business dealings and the investigation into alleged collusion with Russia by the Trump campaign and its surrogates to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, sources familiar with the matter tell ABC News. Investigators were also interested in knowing, the sources say, whether Trump or any of his associates discussed the possibility of a pardon with Cohen. Over the 16 months that Mueller has been investigating, the president has repeatedly bashed the investigation as a partisan witch hunt, insisting there has been no collusion and no obstruction of justice. The interviews with Cohen took place in Washington, D.C., and New York City. They were also attended in part by prosecutors from the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Southern District of New York. Cohen’s participation in the meetings has been voluntary — without any guarantee of leniency from prosecutors, according to several people familiar with the situation. ABC News has also learned that Cohen is also cooperating with a separate probe by New York state authorities into the inner workings of the Trump family charity and the Trump Organization, where Cohen served as an executive vice president and special counsel to Trump for 10 years.
The news of Cohen’s dealings with federal and state investigators comes close on the heels of another potentially perilous legal development for the president: the guilty pleas last week from Trump’s former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, who struck a deal with Mueller’s prosecutors in exchange for his cooperation. As the Manafort deal was taking shape — Mueller’s team had already been talking to Cohen.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit its first record high since January on Thursday as gains in Apple and a decrease in trade fears lifted the 30-stock index. The Dow jumped 255 points as Boeing, Caterpillar and Apple rose. The S&P 500 also rose 0.8 percent to an all-time high, its first since late August, as consumer staples and tech outperformed.President Donald Trump touted the S&P 500’s record in a tweet, saying “Congrats USA!”
The Nasdaq Composite also rose 1 percent as Amazon gained 1 percent ahead of an event where they are expected to unveil new Alexa-powered devices. Apple, meanwhile, jumped 1.3 percent.
Boeing and Caterpillar, two bellwethers for trade, rose 1.2 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively.
The Chinese commerce ministry said Thursday the country hopes the U.S. will take steps to correct its behavior. The comments come as the two countries slapped tariffs on each other’s goods.
“I think we’re moving away from fears of a global trade war to maybe just one with China,” said Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. Earlier, “it seemed like more countries would be caught in the administration’s cross hairs; not it appears to be just one.” The U.S. administration announced Monday it would inflict 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, which would rise to 25 percent by year-end. China retaliated Tuesday by announcing levies targeting over 5,000 American products worth $60 billion and to go into effect next week. The country has also filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization about the U.S.’ latest round of duties. However, the levies imposed by both countries were seen as less than previously feared, helping lift sentiment on Wall Street. The Dow is up more than 1 percent over the past two days. The S&P 500, meanwhile, has risen more than 0.6 percent in that time period. “I’m not at all surprised investors are taking the latest tariffs and the more muted response from China as a positive,” said Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones. She noted that trade news have been both a positive and negative catalyst for stocks this year. Hence, a more muted escalation to the trade conflict is seen as a net positive. “But I don’t think the worries about trade are completely over, especially if the U.S. tariffs on China increase to 25 percent.” J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon also played down the conflict between the U.S. and China, calling it a skirmish and not a trade war. Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt, thinks investors should be more concerned with the trade situation, however. “It will take people some time realize this is not going away anytime soon,” he said. “We think the situation with China will take the longest time to resolve.”
Traders also weigh Iran sanctions concerns against U.S.-China trade tariffs
Oil climbed Wednesday, with the U.S. benchmark getting a boost after a government report revealed a fifth-straight weekly decline in U.S. crude inventories. The decrease in supplies was smaller than the market expected, but it contradicted the increase reported by a trade group on Tuesday. Traders also weighed expectations for lower global output due to impending U.S. sanctions on Iran, as well as the prospects for energy demand on the heels of a worsening trade dispute between the U.S. and China. The U.S. benchmark, October West Texas Intermediate crude CLV8, +0.34% rose 86 cents, or 1.2%, to $70.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract, which expires at Thursday’s settlement, was trading at $70.41 before the supply data. November Brent LCOX8, +0.39% the global benchmark, added 16 cents, or 0.2%, to trade at $79.19 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, a day after ending up 1.3%.
The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that domestic crude supplies fell by 2.1 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 14. The EIA had reported declines in each of the previous four weeks.
“Although refinery runs have dropped 442,000 [barrels per day] as we slide into fall maintenance, refining activity remains elevated, with runs over 800,000 [barrels-a-day] higher than in 2016,” said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData, adding that 2017’s figures were “muddied by Hurricane Harvey.” “We see another counter-seasonal draw to crude inventories as rising exports have countered a rebound in imports,” he said. Gasoline stockpiles declined by 1.7 million barrels for the week, while distillate stockpiles climbed by 800,000 barrels, according to the EIA. The S&P Global Platts survey had shown expectations for supply declines of 1.6 million barrels for gasoline, and 282,000 barrels for distillates, which include heating oil.
“If we continue to see that rise—and coupled along with the trade war—we could see the equity markets come off, along with a slowdown in global growth if the trade war goes to the next level,” said Zahir. “Even with Iran barrels [expected] to come off market, the global macro picture could put a damper on crude oil demand as we go through the end of the year.”
Major oil producers, including Russia, have been wrestling with how to ensure market stability once the U.S. sanctions against Iran are imposed in early November. Iran is the third-largest oil producer and a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. On Tuesday, oil prices got a lift from a report indicating that Saudi Arabia—OPEC’s de facto leader— is growing more inured to the prospect of higher Brent futures prices above $80 a barrel. OPEC and other producers including Russia are set to meet on Sept. 23 in Algeria to discuss how to best distribute planned increases to offset the loss of Iranian output, estimated at 1.4 million barrels a day, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.
US crude oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, decreased by 2.1 million bbl for the week ended Sept. 14, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration. At 394.1 million bbl, US crude oil inventories are about 3% below the 5-year average for this time of year, the report indicated. The report said total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million bbl and are about 8% above the 5-year range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 800,000 bbl last week and are about 2% below the 5-year average for this time of year. Propane-propylene inventories increased by 100,000 bbl last week and are about 12% below the 5-year average for this time of year, EIA said. US refinery inputs averaged 17.4 million b/d for the week ended Sept. 14, about 442,000 b/d less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 95.4% of capacity. Gasoline production decreased, averaging 10.3 million b/d. Distillate fuel production decreased, averaging 5.5 million b/d. US crude oil imports averaged 8 million b/d, up by 433,000 b/d from the previous week. Over the last 4 weeks, crude oil imports averaged 7.7 million b/d, 6.9% more than the same period last year. Total motor gasoline imports averaged 561,000 b/d. Distillate fuel imports averaged 141,000 b/d.
President Donald Trump should be “very, very worried” at the news that his former campaign aide, Paul Manafort, is cooperating with special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, as the deal is “bulletproof” from a presidential pardon, Fox News judicial analyst Judge Andrew Napolitano said Monday.
“When Paul Manafort pleaded guilty to two crimes, witness tampering and conspiracy to defraud the government, basically not paying taxes, he also admitted to 18 other crimes.” Many of those were federal crimes, or all state crimes, said Napolitano, making it “bulletproof” from being shot down by a pardon. “If President Trump were to pardon Paul Manafort, to prevent him from spilling the beans against the president to Bob Mueller, he would be immediately indicted by the attorneys general, appropriate authorities in the four states where the bank fraud occurred,” Napolitano said of Manafort. “This is part of the Mueller method of operating.” Last Friday, Manafort pleaded guilty to two federal crimes after he made a deal with prosecutors and agreed to cooperate with Mueller’s Russia probe, allowing him to avoid a second criminal trial. Last month, Manafort was convicted of eight financial crimes during a trial in Virginia, and faces 7-10 years in prison in that case. Prosecutor Andrew Weissman said Manafort will plead guilty to charges related to his Ukrainian political consulting work.
With President Donald Trump announcing a new round of tariffs on China –imposing 10 percent on about $200 billion worth of goods from the country — Beijing said on Tuesday that it would retaliate with a new round of tariffs on U.S. imports. As these tariffs roll on and cause some fear and dread in several industries, it’s worth asking: What does a victory in a trade war with China actually look like? “If they get meaningful concessions out of the Chinese, they will consider this a success,” said Bart Oosterveld, director of the Global Business and Economics Program at the Atlantic Council. What, exactly, is a “meaningful confession,” though? Are there any hard targets included in that definition? Although the aim of these tariffs is to lower the U.S.-China trade deficit — by either $100 billion or $200 billion by the end of 2020 — a “win” can be defined in a number of ways. “Within the administration there are very different views about what a good outcome with China is,” said Oosterveld. Some, he pointed out, such as U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer, want to see complete reform, with China becoming a free-market economy. “Then there are others who want concessions on specific trade practices,” said Oosterveld, adding, “You can claim victory pretty quickly in this environment.” So, with some kind of (at least claim to) victory assured, we can expect more of the same in the short term — at least, until the November midterm elections. Along with the announcement of the new tariffs on Monday night, President Trump also said that if China retaliates (which it is). then the U.S. will “immediately pursue phase three, which is tariffs on approximately $267 billion of additional imports” — or pretty much everything the U.S. imports from China. Feeling pretty confident with a strong stock market and high employment figures, Oosterveld said the administration is sure to push ahead with the third round of tariffs. “The administration has no incentive, politically or economically, to back down before the midterms,” said Oosterveld. “This escalation kind of serves them well,” he added. Will these tariffs work to change China’s behavior and help narrow the trade deficit? Well, maybe, said Oosterveld, who sees the Chinese as being “relatively willing” to make some concessions. “But if you’re going to address the trade practices of China, long-term, I think you need to work with allies, like the E.U. and Japan, to apply pressure. I don’t think that’s happening right now,” he said. Indeed, the president seems to view this as a bilateral issue rather than a global one, and his Tuesday morning tweets make more of a nationalistic (or emotional) case for his actions, rather than a pragmatic one pitting China against America’s “great patriots”:
China has openly stated that they are actively trying to impact and change our election by attacking our farmers, ranchers and industrial workers because of their loyalty to me. What China does not understand is that these people are great patriots and fully understand that…..
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 18, 2018
…..China has been taking advantage of the United States on Trade for many years. They also know that I am the one that knows how to stop it. There will be great and fast economic retaliation against China if our farmers, ranchers and/or industrial workers are targeted!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 18, 2018
But many U.S. businesses worry that the president’s tariffs will be what puts them in the line of fire: Thousands of companies and trade industries have registered their concerns with Lighthizer’s office, saying that their businesses will take a hit from which they can’t recover. Many have applied to get their products off the tariff list. This, said Oosterveld, seems to be an acceptable price to pay for the Trump administration. “We have very solid economic growth and this, in and of itself, won’t trigger an economic downturn … I’m sure there’s downstream harmful effects to individuals, to certain companies, to certain industries, certainly to companies abroad and certain industries there — I don’t think that’s a major area of concern to this administration right now.”
LONDON (Reuters) – British Prime Minister Theresa May has warned rebels in her party that unless they support her potential Brexit deal with the EU then they will face a no deal. The United Kingdom is due to leave the EU on March 29 and yet little is clear: There is, so far, no full exit agreement and some rebels in May’s Conservative Party have threatened to vote down a deal if she clinches one. “I think that the alternative to that will be having no deal,” May told BBC TV. The fate of May’s government and her Brexit plan is in doubt because it is unclear whether she could command the 320 votes she needs in the House of Commons, the lower house of the British parliament, to approve a deal. Recent signals from Brussels have buoyed hopes that the United Kingdom and the EU can agree and approve a proper divorce agreement before the UK leaves on March 29, though the sides are still divided on about one fifth of the detail of a deal. But many business chiefs and investors fear politics could scupper an agreement, thrusting the world’s fifth largest economy into a “no-deal” Brexit that they say would weaken the West, spook financial markets and block the arteries of trade. As Britain now faces a choice between a bad Brexit deal or a damaging “no-deal” Brexit, voters should be given another referendum, London mayor Sadiq Khan said. May’s former foreign minister, Boris Johnson, attacked May’s Brexit plans.
“If the Brexit negotiations continue on this path they will end, I am afraid, in a spectacular political car crash,” Johnson wrote in the Daily Telegraph newspaper.
May’s proposals, named for a country house where they were hashed out in July, call for free trade of goods with the EU, with Britain accepting a “common rulebook” that would apply to those goods. “The whole thing is a constitutional abomination, and if Chequers were adopted it would mean that for the first time since 1066 our leaders were deliberately acquiescing in foreign rule,” Johnson said, referring to the 11th Century invasion which established Norman rule over England. Johnson scolded May for her handling of the Brexit negotiations on the future of the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, the only land border between the EU and the United Kingdom after Brexit. The Times newspaper reported that the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, is working on a new protocol text outlining how to use technology to minimise checks on the border. Under the EU plan, goods could be tracked using barcodes on shipping containers under “trusted-trader” schemes administered by registered companies, the Times reported. Reuters reported on Sept. 12 that EU officials were working on a sensitive Irish protocol to the draft Brexit treaty with Britain, as part of what Barnier has called efforts to “de-dramatise” the issue and get a deal. The proposals are to be circulated to European governments after the Conservative Party conference which starts on Sept. 30, according to the Times. The “revised draft of the Northern Ireland protocol”, according to a diplomatic note of talks between EU ambassadors, will propose that most new checks would not happen at any border, the Times said.
The US is imposing new tariffs on $200bn (£150bn) worth of Chinese goods as it escalates its trade war with Beijing. The higher import taxes will apply to more than 5,000 items, marking the biggest round of US tariffs so far. Handbags, rice and textiles will be included, but some items expected to be targeted such as smart watches and play pens have been excluded. China has previously vowed to retaliate against any further US tariffs. The taxes will take effect from 24 September, starting at 10% and increasing to 25% from the start of next year unless the two countries agree a deal.President Donald Trump said the latest round of tariffs was in response to China’s “unfair trade practices, including subsidies and rules that require foreign companies in some sectors to bring on local partners. “We have been very clear about the type of changes that need to be made, and we have given China every opportunity to treat us more fairly. “But, so far, China has been unwilling to change its practices,” he said. He also warned that if China retaliated then the US would “immediately pursue phase three” which would mean imposing further tariffs with taxes on another $267bn worth of Chinese products. If he does go ahead with a further $267bn worth of tariffs, it would mean virtually all of China’s US exports would be subject to new duties. his latest round is the biggest to date, and unlike the earlier rounds this latest list targets consumer goods, such as luggage and furniture. That means regular households may start to feel the impact. US companies have already said they are worried about the effect of higher costs on their businesses. The White House says its tariffs are a response to China’s “unfair” trade policies. In theory, the tariffs will make US-made products cheaper than imported ones, so encourage consumers to buy American. The idea is they would boost local businesses and support the national economy. US officials hope the risk of economic harm will convince the Chinese government to change its policies. However, many US businesses are critical of the tariffs. Farmers, manufacturers, retailers and other industry groups have formed a coalition to oppose the tariffs, calling them taxes on American families. “Tariffs have already resulted in layoffs, and this escalation will continue to squeeze American businesses with higher input costs and American farmers with decreasing commodity values,” said Jonathan Gold, a spokesman for the coalition. Talks between high-level officials ended in May without resolving the matter. Efforts to re-start discussions have failed to progress. US and China officials had discussed a new round of talks over the past week, but President Trump’s latest move is likely to sour relations further.
Texas authorities charged a U.S. Border Patrol supervisor with murder following what they called a two-week serial killing spree that left four female sex workers dead and ended when a fifth woman escaped at a gas station and found help.
Juan David Ortiz, 35, an intel supervisor for the Border Patrol, was charged with four counts of murder as well as aggravated assault and unlawful restraint, Webb County District Attorney Isidro Alaniz said in a tweet.
Ortiz was arrested after the fifth woman managed to flee. State troopers found Ortiz hiding in a truck in a hotel parking lot in Laredo at around 2 a.m. Saturday. The border city about 145 miles (235 kilometers) southwest of San Antonio. “We do consider this to be a serial killer,” Alaniz said. Alaniz said that after the suspect picked up the fifth woman she quickly realized that she was in danger. “When she tried to escape from him at a gas station that’s when she ran into a (state) trooper,” Alaniz said. He said that authorities believe Ortiz had killed all four women since Sept. 3. The names of the victims were not immediately released. Alaniz said two of them were U.S. citizens but the nationalities of the other two were not yet known. All of them were working as prostitutes and one was a transgender woman, he said. Ortiz was a 10-year veteran of the Border Patrol. U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued a statement saying that it was fully cooperating with the investigation. Nick Bit: A man who supervises children ripped from their mothers arms is a living piece of shit and as you are seeing is capable of anything. ” Its my job” is the excuse animals have used since dawn to commit atrocities. Like dropping cyanide capsules into “Sowers” full of women and children. THEIR IS NO DIFFERENCE! THESE THINGS HAVE A WAY OF GROWING!
BERLIN (Reuters) – Governments cannot completely prevent a repeat of events like the 2008 global financial crisis even though regulations have been tightened since the collapse of Lehman Brothers a decade ago, Germany’s top central banker told Bild newspaper. Bundesbank President Jen Weidmann said German banks were not only victims of the 2008 financial crisis, but many institutions had also taken on more risk than they could ultimately carry. Regulations had been tightened since then, but it would be “an illusion” to think that governments could completely avert such crises, he said.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The prognosis for President Donald Trump and his party was grim. In a post-Labor Day briefing at the White House, a top Republican pollster told senior staff that the determining factor in the election wouldn’t be the improving economy or the steady increase in job creation. It would be how voters feel about Trump. And the majority of the electorate, including a sizable percentage of Republican-leaning voters, doesn’t feel good about the president, according to a presentation from pollster Neil Newhouse that spanned dozens of pages. Newhouse’s briefing came amid a darkening mood among Republican officials as the November election nears. Party leaders were already worried that a surge in enthusiasm among Democrats and disdain for Trump by moderate Republicans would put the House out of reach. But some Republicans now fear their Senate majority is also in peril — a scenario that was unthinkable a few months ago given the favorable Senate map for the GOP. “For Republican candidates to win in swing states, they need all of the voters who support President Trump, plus a chunk of those who do not,” said Whit Ayres, a GOP pollster. “That is threading a very narrow strategic needle.” Operatives in both parties say Republicans still have the edge in the fight for control of the Senate. But GOP officials are increasingly worried that nominees in conservative-leaning states like Missouri and Indiana are underperforming, while races in Tennessee and Texas that should be slam-dunks for Republicans are close. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell raised an alarm last week, warning that each of the competitive Senate races would be “like a knife fight in an alley.” Some of the public fretting among Republicans appears to be strategic, as party officials try to motivate both voters and donors. Many moderate Republican voters “don’t believe there is anything at stake in this election,” according to the documents Newhouse presented to White House officials. He attributed that belief in part to a disregard for public polling, given that most surveys showed Democrat Hillary Clinton defeating Trump in the 2016 presidential election.
At the White House, anxiety over the midterms has been on the rise for months as polls increasingly show a challenging environment for the GOP and heightened Democratic enthusiasm. The sheer number of competitive races in both the House and Senate is stretching cash reserves and forcing tough calculations about where to deploy resources and surrogates. And there are growing fears that the coalition of voters that delivered Trump to the White House will not come out for midterms.
Even if those voters do show up in large numbers, Republicans could still come up short. The polling presented to White House officials, which was commissioned by the Republican National Committee, showed that Trump’s loyal supporters make up about one-quarter of the electorate. Another quarter is comprised of Republicans who like Trump’s policies but not the president himself and do not appear motivated to back GOP candidates. And roughly half of expected midterm voters are Democrats who are energized by their opposition to the president.
White House aides say Trump is getting regular briefings on the political landscape and is aware of the increasingly grim polling, even though he’s predicted a “red wave” for Republicans on Twitter and at campaign rallies. Aides say Trump’s sober briefings from GOP officials are sometimes offset by the frequent conversations he has with a cadre of outside advisers who paint a sunnier picture of the electoral landscape and remind the president of his upset victory in 2016. Nick Note: You get lucky once you rarely get lucky a second time. Donald… your screwed. the democrats are coming with pitch forks and torches to get you. the white house is under sage.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Trump administration will send a message to all U.S. cellphones on Thursday to test a previously unused alert system that aims to warn the public about national emergencies. U.S. President Donald Trump addresses a reception for Congressional Medal of Honor recipients in the East Room of the White House in Washington, U.S., September 12, 2018. REUTERS/Carlos Barria The messages will bear the headline “Presidential Alert”, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) said in a statement this week. Phones will make a loud tone and have a special vibration, said FEMA, which will send the alert. The test message, scheduled for 2:18 p.m. EDT on Thursday, will read: “THIS IS A TEST of the National Wireless Emergency Alert System. No action is needed.” The test has been scheduled to ensure that the alert system would work in the event of a national emergency. U.S. cellphone users will not be able to opt out. Former President Barack Obama signed a law in 2016 requiring FEMA to create a system allowing the president to send cellphone alerts regarding public safety emergencies. Since the wireless emergency alert system began in 2012, it has issued over 36,000 alerts for situations such as missing children, extreme weather and natural disasters, but never a presidential directive. Cell phone users can opt out of natural disaster or missing children alerts. FEMA said in a statement the alerts can only be used for national emergencies. The president has sole responsibility for determining when the national-level alerts are used. In the event of widespread severe weather or another significant event on Sept. 20, the test will be pushed back to Oct. 3, FEMA said. The administration announced in July that it would schedule the test alert for September. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on its role in planning the test alert. The administration will send a test alert via radio and television broadcasters two minutes after the cell phone alert. It will interrupt programming for about one minute, FEMA said. Cell towers will broadcast the WEA test for approximately 30 minutes beginning at 2:18 p.m. The U.S. Federal Communications Commission has approved new rules to ensure starting in 2019 that alerts are more precisely targeted, with links to photos or other important information. There have been issues with prior state alerts. In January, Hawaii issued a false alert of a missile attack that went uncorrected for 38 minutes after being transmitted to mobile phones and broadcast stations, causing widespread panic across the Pacific islands state. In April, the FCC blamed that false alarm on human error and inadequate safeguards
In a world swimming in debt, the next crisis is likely to bear at least a passing resemblance to the last one. The good news is that day seems to be a ways off. Not that anyone’s in a hurry, but there are few obvious signs of a situation akin to the 2008 meltdown on the horizon. The financial system is well-capitalized and operating with lower leverage and risk-taking than in at least generation or two. Economic pillars remain strong, the health of corporate America has rarely been better and new buffers put in place have been effective at absorbing shocks.
In fact, if anything it’s too quiet. That almost always has been the recipe for a good crisis.
“There was abundant liquidity in the system in 2006, too,” said Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and director of intelligence for Quill Intelligence, a research and analytics firm. She also served as advisor to former Dallas Federal Reserve president Richard Fisher during the financial crisis, so she had a front-row seat to how it unfolded. Indeed, before collapsing investment bank Bear Stearns had consistently ranked among Forbes’ best-run businesses. Lehman Brothers had $275 billion in assets under management prior to the crisis and had generated $3.1 billion in revenue in 2007, the year before it too capsized.
For DiMartino Booth, the exotic financial instruments that helped cause the calamity a decade ago and brought down those two venerable institutions, along with many more, are still lurking in the system, threatening a deadly repeat unless the issue is corralled.
“We never addressed the root cause of derivatives in the first place,” she said in an interview. “We still kind of operate in the dark as it pertains to the transmission mechanism of derivatives.” Derivatives refer to instruments that package bonds into blocks that are then sold off to investors. Warren Buffett famously called them “weapons of financial destruction.” In theory, they actually were meant to reduce risk by hedging exposure to any one security failing, sort of like the way exchange-traded funds combine entire sectors to alleviate exposure to a single company whose shares might slump. In practice, things were quite a bit different. Wall Street traders, in response to demand for yield from their clients, put together exotic bundles of mortgages, many tied to unqualified buyers who defaulted. Their structure was so opaque that many banks couldn’t even value what they held, creating a crisis of confidence on Wall Street that took out some of the financial world’s biggest names.
The market for some products, particularly collateralized debt obligations and leveraged loans, has increased dramatically in recent days. CLO volume was up 51 percent year-over-year in the first half, according to Dealogic, while Thomson Reuters reports that volume for loans used in leveraged buyouts has surged 33 percent.
Covenants, or protections for investors in bonds, particularly high-yield junk, are close to record lows, according to Moody’s Investors Services. Meanwhile, the federal government keeps ringing up more and more debt — $21.4 trillion and counting — and interest rates are on the rise. In an investing world that continues to clamor for yield, the debt bomb is always ticking.
“The search for yield has been spread across the globe once again, and now we’re seeing it crop up again in different countries every week,” DiMartino Booth said. “You wake up and wonder who blew up today.”
Indeed, a series of mini-explosions has been happening around the world, in countries like Turkey, the Philippines and India. Currency trading has gotten increasingly volatile, sparking worries that the U.S. may import its next crisis. “I’m concerned about the transmission mechanism,” DiMartino Booth said. “Even if the initial catalyst to set off the next downturn does not come from within the U.S. financial system, that does not mean that the U.S. financial system is not just as vulnerable as it was before to be the conduit to spread systemic risk.” Tightening financial conditions, the Fed continuing to raise rates and the sheer volume of debt instruments rising almost certainly means that while an earthquake may not be looming along the financial system’s many fault lines, tremors are almost certain.
“A lot of markets are going to reprice, but it won’t be systemic,” said Christopher Whalen, head of Whalen Global Advisors, an investment bank consultancy. “A lot of illusions will get broken, but spreads are still quite tight in the credit markets.”
In the interim, warnings about looming crises likely will get treated like the rantings of so many Chicken Littles who have been proven wrong time and again during the nine-year economic recovery. Few really believe in crises until they actually hit.’
“When we talk about leveraged loans and CLOs today, sure there’s obviously a problem. Until you see a sponsor fail and file bankruptcy, then people will start to believe it, but not yet,” Whalen said. “There is a significant mispricing of risk. That will come along soon. You’re going to see prices fall a lot.
“A shock turns into a crisis when the system is unprepared for it. The system is often at its most vulnerable near the end of the global economic cycle when excesses have built up and managing risks may have been neglected,” Kleintop said in a recent report looking at the source of the next crisis. “The global economic, financial and market system now seems better prepared to manage the shocks of the past were they to repeat in the future.”
Politics, the rise of index investing and higher interest rates that will make all that debt more expensive are the big ones investors will need to watch out for. “Vulnerabilities have shifted which may make the shocks that pose the greatest risk of a crisis somewhat different than those of the past,” Kleintop wrote. “Of these, the potential risk posed by a shock from higher interest rates coupled with a stronger U.S. dollar may pose the greatest threat to a vulnerable financial and economic system.”
Nobel laureate Robert Shiller thinks investors ought to ignore the recent burst in corporate profits and focus on longer-term valuation, which he says carries foreboding news for the stock market. At a time when earnings are rising 25 percent a quarter, Shilller said that’s not indicative of what longer-term results in the market will be. History has shown that in previous times, particularly around World War I, the late 1920s approaching the time of the Depression, and in the high-inflation 1980s, profits could be strong but equity results not as much. In the present case, the recent surge in profits has been due to last year’s tax cuts, backed by President Donald Trump, that took the corporate rate from 35 percent to 21 percent.
“My own way of thinking is it looks like an overreaction,” Shiller said Friday at a conference in New York presented by the Wharton School. “We’re launching a trade war. Aren’t people thinking about that? Is that a good thing? I don’t know, but I’m thinking it’s likely to be bad times in the stock market.” The Yale economist is known for a number of groundbreaking views and theories on the market, but perhaps most for a gauge he uses to measure stock market valuations. The Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings ratio — often referred to as the “Shiller CAPE” or “Shiller PE” — looks at valuations over a 10-year period to smooth for fluctuations in the business cycle. Currently, the gauge is at 33.3, its highest level since June 2001. The index peaked near 45 in mid-2000, just as the dot-com bubble was about to burst. Testing the model over time, it saw the market crashes in 1929 and 1987 as well as the dot-com bubble. Shiller cautioned that he is not predicting major calamity for the market but rather a much lower level of returns, in the 2.6 percent annual range, than investors have come to expect during the 9-year-old bull market. The longest rally in history has the S&P 500 up more than 335 percent since the March 2009 bottom. “It’s not like I’m predicting a crash,” he said. “This is a 10-year forward return. This is not going to be great, because we’re just too high at the present value.” Among other things, he said the current tax climate won’t last and corporate earnings will come back down, just as they have done in the past. “Is Donald Trump permanent?” he asked to laughter. “I won’t get into that, a lot of discord about that.” To be sure, the Shiller CAPE has been elevated for years and crossed 30 nearly a year ago. And not everyone agrees with his analysis — including his friend and sparring partner of 51 years and fellow speaker at the Friday event, Jeremy Siegel. Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer professor of finance at the Wharton School and has long served as the bull to Shiller’s bear. He contested several of Shiller’s points, particularly about whether the market necessarily needs to revert to trend and what he sees as an oversight on the impact of low-cost passive investing on the market. On the latter point, thanks to low-fee ETFs it now costs investors less to have a balanced portfolio so they don’t require returns as high to beat the market. Even if stocks are expensive, Siegel said, they remain a bargain compared with bonds when considering the risk premium, or the amount of return investors demand compared to risk. “Stocks are overvalued on a longer-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis,” he said. “Relative valuation of stocks vs. bonds is among the more favorable — not the most favorable but among the more favorable — in history.”
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump has instructed aides to proceed with tariffs on about $200 billion more Chinese goods, despite Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s attempts to restart trade talks with China, a source familiar with the decision said. But the timing for activating the additional tariffs was unclear, the person said. The green light for the tariffs, first reported by Bloomberg, had an immediate effect on financial markets. It led U.S. stocks to trade lower, fueled drops in the Chinese yuan in offshore trading CNH=EBS and gains in the dollar index .DXY, and sent the S&P 500 index .SPX negative. The decision comes one week after Trump said he would be adding tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods and had tariffs on another $267 billion in Chinese imports “ready to go on short notice if I want.” A public comment period also ended last week for the $200 billion tariff list, which would hit various internet technology products and other electronics, printed circuit boards and consumer goods ranging from handbags to bicycles and furniture. The U.S. Trade Representative’s office has said it was working to revise the list based on issues raised in public hearings and written submissions. In previous rounds of anti-China tariffs, it has taken one to two weeks to revise the list and another two to three weeks to begin collecting tariffs. The decision also comes despite a Treasury invitation earlier this week to senior Chinese officials, including Vice Premier Liu He, for more talks to try to resolve trade differences between the world’s two largest economies. China’s foreign ministry said it welcomed the invitation, but Trump later raised questions about it, saying on Twitter that he was under no pressure to make a deal with Beijing and that the United States “will soon be taking in Billions in Tariffs & making products at home. If we meet, we meet?” A Treasury spokesman did not immediately respond to a query on the status of the China talks invitation. A USTR spokesman did not respond to queries about the tariffs. Trump has already levied duties on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods based on his demands that China reduce its $375 billion trade surplus with the United States and make sweeping changes to policies on intellectual property and technology transfers and roll back high tech industrial subsidies. The tariffs on the $50 billion of goods already imposed, the $200 billion list and another $267 billion of Chinese goods would exceed the $505 billion in goods that the United States imported from China last year. But 2018 imports from China through July were up nearly 9 percent over the same period of 2017, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.Additional reporting by Lisa Lambert and David Lawder; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Phil Berlowitz
Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort pleaded guilty Friday to two criminal charges and agreed to cooperate with federal prosecutors investigating links to Russian election interference, developments that could add momentum to special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe. Mr. Manafort, who becomes the fifth associate of President Trump’s to plead guilty in connection with federal investigations, admitted to conspiracy against the U.S. and conspiracy to obstruct justice. He already was convicted last month by a federal jury in Virginia of not reporting to tax authorities more than $16 million he earned for political consulting work in Ukraine in the early 2010s. criminal trial for Mr. Manafort that was to begin next week. That trial, in Washington, D.C., was set to cover additional charges related to that Ukraine work. In connection with the agreement, Mr. Manafort agreed to forfeit four of his multimillion-dollar homes, including a Brooklyn townhome and an estate on Long Island, and funds in multiple bank accounts. Other terms of the deal couldn’t immediately be determined.Paul Manafort Convicted: How the Trial Unfolded former campaign manager, guilty of eight counts of fraud, but couldn’t reach a verdict on 10 other counts. Photo: Associated Press
The cooperation agreement raises the legal and political pressure on Mr. Trump less than two months before midterm elections that will decide control of Congress. His former campaign chairman and his former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, are now both cooperating with a prosecutor tasked with probing whether Trump associates aided what the U.S. has said was an influence campaign by Russian interests designed to help Mr. Trump win in 2016.
Mr. Mueller is also looking into whether Mr. Trump sought to obstruct justice by firing Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey in May 2017, while the FBI’s Russia probe was under way. White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said Friday that the Manafort case “had absolutely nothing to do” with Mr. Trump or the 2016 campaign. Rudy Giuliani, a lawyer for the president, said in a statement that Mr. Trump “did nothing wrong.” Mr. Manafort had previously resisted any notion of cooperating with Mr. Mueller, and his lawyer said at the outset of the Virginia trial that there was no chance of such cooperation. Mr. Manafort, 69 years old, has been in jail since June, after he was accused of trying to influence the testimony of a potential witness against him.
FBI Directorsays Americans can feel confident in the election results this November. We spoke with Wray Wednesday at the bureau’s headquarters in Washington for an interview you’ll see only on CBS News. “CBS This Morning” co-host Norah O’Donnell asked about the that described a White House in turmoil.
NORAH O’DONNELL: The president has said that he wants the attorney general to investigate who wrote that anonymous New York Times op-ed. Do you believe, as the president does, that this is an issue of national security?
CHRISTOPHER WRAY: Well, first off, I can tell you I didn’t write it, I didn’t have anything to do with it. Second, I would tell you that we’re not really in the practice of confirming or discussing whether we’re going to be conducting a particular investigation. I would tell you that we’re going to make decisions about that kind of thing based on all the factors we normally do, which is whether or not we have sufficient evidence of federal crime.
O’DONNELL: You’ve said you did not write the New York Times –
O’DONNELL: – op-ed. I know that you have denied that. But – but I want to ask you about the content. It described the president’s leadership style as, quote, “impetuous,” “adversarial,” “petty,” and “ineffective.” It said that the root of the president’s problems is, quote, “amorality.” Does that sound like the president you know?
WRAY: I try very hard to make sure that my relationship with the president is a professional one. … And beyond that, I’m not going to really be weighing in on opinions, especially anonymously-expressed opinions. I can tell you that there are lots of ways for people to express their views and their disagreements. For me, the idea of doing it through an anonymous op-ed is about the furthest thing from my mind.
O’DONNELL: Let me turn now to Russia and its malign activities. … When Vladimir Putin said that Russia has never interfered and is not going to interfere in American affairs, including the election process, was he lying?
WRAY: Well, again, I’m not going to accuse somebody of lying. I’ll just say that that doesn’t jive with our read of the evidence, and we’re pretty confident in our read.
O’DONNELL: What is Russia doing tothat are now just about 60 days away?
WRAY: So what we’re seeing now is a continuation of the – what we call malign foreign influence efforts. … What they do is sow both inaccurate information, disinformation, it’s a kind of information warfare, and then propaganda. Exaggerated half-truths, distortions.
O’DONNELL: Why are we letting this happen? Why are we letting Russia do this? We have the greatest law enforcement agency in the world, the FBI. We have the most powerful tech companies in the world. Why are we allowing Russia to do this?
WRAY: I don’t view us as allowing them to do anything. I think we’re countering it. We are working hard to counter it more and more effective all the time.
O’DONNELL: How are we countering it? How are we fighting back?
WRAY: Well, in some cases, we have law enforcement investigations that lead to charges. In some cases, we have steps that the technology companies can take themselves… And in some cases, we’re raising awareness. Because the best defense against disinformation and propaganda is accurate information.
O’DONNELL: So come November… can Americans be confident that it was a fair election?
WRAY: I think Americans can have confidence in our election system.
Despite headlines about Russian meddling, the FBI director said China is the single biggest threat to Amer
The U.K. government is set to meet Thursday morning for three-hours to discuss the eventuality of a “no-deal” Brexit. The meeting takes place at a time when the government is also releasing more than 20 documents, outlining some more preparations in case the U.K. leaves the European Union in March 2019 without a deal. This is not the first set of papers outlining what will happen in case the U.K. and the EU do not reach a deal. In late August, the U.K. government said that businesses should prepare for higher barriers to trade, more red tape and potentially higher costs too, if Brexit talks collapse. All these steps are part of a wider attempt to step up works for the worst-case scenario. The EU has also strengthened its preparations in case the U.K. leaves the bloc abruptly.
The U.K.’s Brexit chief, Dominic Raab, warned on Wednesday that the U.K. will not pay the so-called divorce bill, if there is no final deal over Brexit. Raab wrote in the Daily Telegraph that the £39 billion ($50.82 billion) the U.K. owes to the EU, due to previous policy agreements, will not be repaid if there is no deal.
Brexit negotiators want to conclude talks by the end of November to ensure that there is enough time to get the deal approved by all Parliaments. However, there are divergences about their future relationship, including what’s going to happen to the Irish border. This has prevented negotiations from being concluded.
Political analysts and investors have become particularly worried about the prospects of a no-deal over the summer, following several comments from U.K. officials, including the Governor of the Bank of England. Mark Carney who said in early August that the risk of a no-deal is “uncomfortably high.”
The sterling has lost nearly 10 percent of its value against the dollar since Brexit. The currency has seen a lot of volatility since the referendum vote on June 23. While the initial moves were dramatic, plunging from the highs of $1.50 to a 31-year low of $1.32, the pound continues to remain under pressure at current levels of $1.30. So far, on Thursday morning, sterling seemed muted to the Brexit developments.
Despite the preparations for a no-deal, both the U.K. and the EU are still saying they are working towards a deal. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in his State of the Union address on Wednesday said that the EU stands ready to work “day and night” to find an agreement with the U.K. over Brexit.
However, Juncker also warned that the U.K. needs to be reasonable. “But we also ask the British government to understand that someone who leaves the Union cannot be in the same privileged position as a member State,” he said.
Meanwhile, Brexit chief Raab told the BBC Thursday morning that Brexit talks will be intensified over the coming weeks and that he is confident that a deal will be achieved.
Credit ratings agency Moody’s said Thursday morning that an abrupt break-up between the EU and the U.K. would be “credit negative for a range of sectors.”
“The UK’s withdrawal from the European Union without an agreement to replace existing arrangements, a risk that has risen materially in recent months, would damage the U.K. economy and be credit negative for a range sectors and debt issuers in the UK and Europe,” Moody’s said in a statement.
Moody’s outlined that U.K. based companies in the automotive industry, airlines, chemical sectors and aerospace are set to be the most impacted, in a no-deal scenario.
Earlier this week, the U.K.’s finance minister, Philip Hammond told the BBC, that the Brexit uncertainty is hurting the economy.
Retirees face a big tax surprise if they haven’t withheld enough from their pension or annuity income, the IRS has warned, noting the penalty for failing to pay the proper amount of estimated taxes. With tax reform bringing about major changes for the year ahead, the IRS embarked on an awareness campaign, and last week started telling retired filers to ensure they avoid an estimated tax penalty. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which went into effect in December, drastically altered how tax is calculated, not just for regular taxpayers but retirees as well. As a result, the majority of taxpayers have to change the amount of tax paid during the year, and retirees receiving monthly pension or annuity checks may have to alter the amount of federal income tax they have withheld accordingly, the IRS noted. While working, taxpayers automatically pay their withholding with each paycheck, but retirees now have to write checks four times a year to the IRS, “With estimated tax payments, there’s the issue of making sure they actually paid the tax,” said Harjit Virk, a CPA and senior associate at Getzel Schiff & Pesce in Woodbury, New York “Sometimes you have to send reminders when the payments are due.”Jonathan Zimmerman, a benefits attorney with Morgan, Lewis & Bockius, noted that circumstances for pensioners payments and filers vary widely, making it difficult to estimate who is at risk of not withholding enough, according to the Wall Street Journal. He explained that income doesn’t just drop after retirement and that certain types of retiree income may be taxable, such as part-time work, Social Security payments, or retirement-plan withdrawals. According to Gil Charney, a director of H&R Block’s Tax Institute, “the onus is on the taxpayer to make sure the withholding is correct,” which is why the IRS now offers a new withholding calculator for taxpayers and retirees to calculate how much to withhold.
(Reuters) – Kroger Co missed quarterly same-store sales estimates on Thursday, as disruptions caused by the supermarket chain changing the way it stocks merchandise on shelves kept some customers away from its stores. The company’s shares fell 7 percent to $29.51 in premarket trading. Under its “Restock” program launched this year, Kroger has been adjusting product assortments, rearranging store layouts and highlighting private label brands on its shelves. However, analysts have said that the short-term disruption and inconvenience the program has caused could lead some customers to shop for their groceries elsewhere. The company said its adjusted gross margin fell 36 basis points in the second quarter from a year earlier, hurt by price cuts and higher freight costs. The company’s same-store sales, excluding fuel, rose 1.6 percent in the quarter. Analysts on average had expected a 1.86 percent increase, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S Kroger said its net income jumped 44 percent to $508 million, or 62 cents per share, in the quarter ended Aug. 18. Excluding one-time items, Kroger earned 41 cents per share. Analysts had estimated a profit of 38 cents. Total sales rose 1 percent to $27.87 billion, but missed analysts’ estimate of $27.95 billion.
Oil futures fell in early Thursday trade as a report showed production among OPEC members surged in August, pushing global inventories to a record.The International Energy Agency in a closely followed monthly report said daily crude-oil output in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries climbed in August by 420,000 barrels a day, to average 32.63 million a day. That output more than made up for an expected decline in Iranian supply due to extant and pending U.S. economic sanctions. The August report also signaled that global supplies hit a record of 100 million barrels a day. October futures on West Texas Intermediate crude CLV8, -2.29% the U.S. benchmark, fell 93 cents, or 1.3%, to $69.44 a barrel, a day after marking the highest settlement since July 20, according to Dow Jones Market Data. November Brent LCOX8, -1.71% gave up 56 cents, or 0.7%, to $79.17 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Wednesday’s settlement for the global benchmark was the highest since May. The IEA’s report reflects monthly data from OPEC on Wednesday which also showed that members of the oil cartel boosted total output last month. The IEA report comes after the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday revealed that domestic U.S. crude supplies fell by 5.3 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 7. Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts had forecast a fall of 2.7 million barrels, while the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a drop of 8.6 million barrels. “The IEA left global oil demand growth unchanged at 1.4 million [barrels per day] for 2018 and 1.5 million bpd for 2019,” wrote Robert Yawger, director of energy at Mizuho USA, in a Thursday research note. “The IEA warned of higher oil prices as Iran and Venezuela losses deepen, and Brent’s $70 to $80 trading range may be tested by tightening,” he wrote. Concerns about expected disruptions to supply have underpinned recent crude-price gains. Renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran that take full effect in early November are expected to sharply curtail exports by the Middle Eastern nation. However, the moves from crude may be stalling out after the IEA report highlighted the ramp-up in global supplies and OPEC’s largest month-on-month increase in more than two years, bringing the supply from the group’s 15 producers to a nine-month high. The increase mainly came from higher production in Libya, Iraq, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia—the de facto head of OPEC. Market participants also have been watching Hurricane Florence, which was downgraded over the Atlantic Ocean late Wednesday to a Category 2 storm. Even so, it is expected to remain an “extremely dangerous major hurricane” when it nears the coast late Thursday and Friday, according to the National Weather Service. The storm, which is on track to disrupt the Carolinas and Virginia, has the potential to cause disruptions to the flow of fuel through the key Colonial Pipeline, which moves gasoline and diesel from Houston through states in the Southeast, including the Carolinas, to Linden, N.J.
Bob Woodward’s in-depth and unflattering look at President Donald Trump’s White House just broke a 94-year sales record. The celebrated Watergate reporter’s new book, “Fear: Trump in the White House,” boasted higher pre-order sales than any other title in the history of its publisher, Simon & Schuster, the company said Wednesday. The tell-all book, released Sept. 11, sold more than 750,000 copies in its first day on sale, according to a press release from the company. That figure combines sales of print copies, ebooks and audiobooks. Simon & Schuster, a New York City-based publisher founded in 1924, added that it ordered a ninth printing of the book on the same day it was released, sending the total number of hardcover copies in print surging past 1.15 million. “Based on immense pre-publication and ongoing interest, the reading public clearly has an enormous appetite for what we believe, as Woodward says, is ‘a pivot point in history,’” the company’s president, Jonathan Karp, said in the release. The book is based on “deep background” sources whose identities are concealed to allow for less guarded interviews. Woodward’s reporting paints a picture of Trump as politically ignorant, mercurial and antagonistic to his staff, who in turn vent rage against him and, at times, undermine his own agenda.The president has attacked Woodward and his book repeatedly since excerpts were first published in The Washington Post, where Woodward works, earlier in September. Trump’s salvos, most of which were launched from his Twitter account, assailed the book as an “already discredited” fabrication intended to help Democrats. Woodward stands by his reporting. Woodward’s book is far from the first attempt to document the internal workings of the Trump administration. Michael Wolff’s “Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House,” published in January, made incendiary claims about Trump and his administration, and broke sales records for its publisher, Henry Holt. Former administration officials, including senior advisor Omarosa Manigault-Newman and press secretary Sean Spicer, recently published their own books documenting their experiences working for Trump.
Fighting the next financial crisis is a ‘forever war,’ experts say
The so-called living wills that the largest banks have to submit every year would not work in a financial panic, said Timothy Geithner and Ben Bernanke on Wednesday. Living wills are plans to unwind a failing bank without government aid. These plans would only work if the financial sector was relatively stable, the two former policymakers said. “If the rest of the system was broadly OK, I think the [living wills] would work,” Bernanke, the former Fed chairman, said. Bernanke and Geithner, a Treasury secretary in the Obama administration and formerly president of the New York Fed, discussed sources of future financial instability and the lessons form the financial crisis with another former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson at a Brookings Institution event. Geithner called the effort to combat financial instability a “forever war.” Paulson said despite the dysfunction in politics, he remained optimistic that Washington would be able to rescue the economy again if there was another crisis. The three policymakers all expressed regret that the American public still has profound doubts over the steps taken to protect the financial system in 2008-2010. Geithner said that, during the heat of the crisis, his wife would look at him across the breakfast table with “a mix of despair and doubt,” that was later mirrored by the general public. “We didn’t persuade the country that what we were doing was necessary,” Bernanke said. Paulson agreed, saying the American people remain convinced that the $700 billion bailout was, in essence, a “reward for the arsonist.” “People don’t like banks and during financial crises they really don’t like banks,” Paulson said.
A key Federal Reserve official on Wednesday said that an inverted yield curve would not necessarily point to an imminent recession, despite its historical track record in doing so. The comment, from Gov. Lael Brainard in a speech to the Detroit Economic Club, isn’t hugely different from comments Brainard made in May on the topic, or from other Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams. What her remarks do suggest is the Fed won’t let the prospect of an inverted yield curve deter the central bank from continuing to lift short-term interest rates. Brainard told the Detroit audience that this time is different.“Like many of you, I am attentive to the historical observation that inversions of the yield curve between the 3-month TMUBMUSD03M, +0.47% and 10-year Treasury rates have had a relatively reliable track record of preceding recessions in the United States,” she said. However, the current 10-year yield TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.43% is around 3%, compared with the average of 6.25% before the financial crisis. Market expectations of interest rates in the longer run are themselves quite low, and also the term premium — the compensation investors require for taking on duration risk — is low. “If the term premium remains very low, any given amount of monetary policy tightening will lead to an inversion sooner so that even a modest tightening that might not have led to an inversion historically could do so today,” she said. So, why is the term premium so low? One reason, she says, is the changed correlation between stock and bond returns, likely associated with changes in expected inflation outcomes. Another reason is the asset purchases of central banks in major economies. Brainard, who as a Fed governor gets a vote at every meeting, says further gradual increases in the federal-funds rate will likely be warranted. “With fiscal stimulus in the pipeline and financial conditions supportive of growth, the shorter-run neutral interest rate is likely to move up somewhat further, and it may well surpass the longer-run equilibrium rate for some period,” she said.
Days before in-person jury selection is set to begin in his second trial, President Trump’s former campaign chairman Paul Manafort is in talks with the special counsel’s office about a possible plea deal, according to two people with knowledge of the discussions. The people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the conversations, cautioned that the negotiations may not result in a deal with special counsel Robert S. Mueller III, who is prosecuting Manafort for alleged money laundering and lobbying violations. But the discussions indicate a possible shift in strategy for Manafort, who earlier this year chose to go to trial in Virginia, only to be convicted last month in Alexandria federal court on eight counts of bank and tax fraud. He had derided his former business partner, Rick Gates, for striking a deal with prosecutors that provided him leniency in exchange for testimony against Manafort. “I had hoped and expected my business colleague would have had the strength to continue the battle to prove our innocence,” Manafort said in February.
The specifics of Manafort’s current negotiations with prosecutors were unclear, including whether he would provide any information about the president. President Trump refused to answer questions about pardoning former campaign manager Paul Manafort, leaving questions about the convicted lobbyist’s next moves. Earlier this summer, Kevin M. Downing, an attorney for Manafort, said there was “no chance” his client would flip and cooperate with prosecutors.
However, Manafort’s current willingness to engage in talks could rattle Trump, who in the past has praised his former campaign chairman for his unwillingness to cooperate with the special counsel.
Prosecutors “applied tremendous pressure on him and . . . he refused to ‘break’ – make up stories in order to get a ‘deal,’ ” the president tweeted last month. “Such respect for a brave man!” Manafort spokesman Jason Maloni and Mueller spokesman Peter Carr declined to comment. Manafort’s attorneys, Downing and Thomas E. Zehnle, did not immediately return calls for comment. Jury selection for Manafort’s second trial is set to begin Monday, with opening statements scheduled for Sept. 24.
The United States likely surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest crude oil producer earlier this year, based on preliminary estimates in EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook
In February, U.S. crude oil production exceeded that of Saudi Arabia for the first time in more than two decades. In June and August, the United States surpassed Russia in crude oil production for the first time since February 1999. Although EIA does not publish crude oil production forecasts for Russia and Saudi Arabia in STEO, EIA expects that U.S. crude oil production will continue to exceed Russian and Saudi Arabian crude oil production for the remaining months of 2018 and through 2019. U.S. crude oil production, particularly from light sweet crude oil grades, has rapidly increased since 2011. Much of the recent growth has occurred in areas such as the Permian Basin in western Texas and eastern New Mexico, the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico, and the Bakken region in North Dakota and Montana. Following the oil price decline in mid-2014, U.S. producers reduced their costs by temporarily scaling back crude oil production. However, after crude oil prices increased in early 2016, investment and production began increasing later that year. By comparison, Russia and Saudi Arabia have maintained relatively steady crude oil production growth in recent years.
President Donald Trump’s sagging approval ratings suddenly have Republicans staring at their worst-case scenarios for midterm elections. In several surveys in recent days, the proportion of Americans who approve of Trump’s job performance has fallen back below 40 percent. Voters intensely hostile to the president far outnumber intense supporters. And without Trump on the ballot, a dangerous number of those intense supporters may not even show up to vote. The record of midterm elections shows the power of the president’s standing clearly and consistently. In each of the last three such contests, more than 80 percent of those approving of the president’s performance back his party’s House candidates; more than 80 percent of those disapproving of the president voted against his party. This week’s Quinnipiac University poll showed that just 38 percent approve of Trump’s performance while 58 percent disapprove. If those numbers hold over the next eight weeks, Republicans struggling to hold their House and Senate majorities will be fighting steeply uphill. The disparity in enthusiasm between the two sides makes it even steeper. Recent special elections have shown Democrats more motivated than Republicans to vote. A CNN poll this week measured an identical imbalance in intensity: 27 percent of voters strongly approve of Trump, while 48 percent strongly disapprove. Trump himself, addressing supporters in the White House recently, worried aloud about what that means. “There’s a real question as to whether people are going to vote if I’m not on the ballot,” the president told a gathering of conservative Christians.
Republicans have always known they’d face a challenging political climate in November. Any president’s party almost invariably loses House seats.
Their hope had been that a robust economy would keep their House losses below the 23 seats Democrats need to seize control. Though Democrats need to gain only two seats to take over the Senate, several Democratic incumbents must defend their jobs in strongly pro-Trump states such as North Dakota and West Virginia.
Earlier this year, Republicans felt growing encouragement. The strong economy helped lift Trump’s approval ratings into the low- to mid-40s and narrowed the Democratic advantage in the national surveys gauging voter preferences for control of the House. But now Trump’s unpopularity provides Democrats a path to victory for both chambers. It is overpowering satisfaction with the economy and widening the Democrats’ “generic ballot” edge.
“The situation looks more worrisome for Republicans,” says GOP pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson. One particular vulnerability is among the young voters whose attitudes are Anderson’s specialty; in the Quinnipiac survey, voters 18-34 disapprove of Trump by a 2-to-1 margin.
The Cook Political Report now lists 66 Republican-held House seats as in serious danger of flipping. Polling averages on realclearpolitics.com show Democratic Senate candidates currently leading for three Republican-held seats — in Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee. History paints an especially ominous picture. Since World War II, presidents with job approval ratings below 50 percent in the Gallup Poll have lost an average of 36 House seats. In each of the last three midterms — 2006, 2010 and 2014 — the president’s party has lost six Senate seats.
In the last half-century, only President George W. Bush in 2006 has suffered pre-midterm approval ratings as low as Trump’s recent sub-40 percent levels. That year, Democrats ousted Republicans from control of both the House and Senate.
Oil drillers increased their hedges on Permian Basin oil prices beyond 2019 by 431% during Q2 in order to lock in healthier prices in case planned pipeline projects fail to come online in time, according to a new report from energy research firm Wood Mackenzie. The huge jump represents unusually high trading for 2020 commodity pricing, and “the only reasonable conclusion one can draw from this surge is that Permian producers are concerned that key pipeline projects won’t be completed on schedule,” says WoodMac research analyst Andrew McConn.
Permian production has surged from 2.5M bbl/day last year to 3.4M bbl/day currently, resulting in Permian oil selling at a nearly $15/bbl discount vs. the U.S. benchmark in the Cushing, Okla., storage hub.
WoodMac also notes concern of an overcorrection, with too many new pipelines coming online by the end of 2020 and leaving some pipelines unable to move oil near their full capacities.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil prices rose more than 2 percent on Tuesday as U.S. sanctions squeezed Iranian crude exports, tightening global supply despite efforts by Washington to get other producers to increase output. Since spring when the Trump Administration said it would impose sanctions on Iran, crude traders have priced in a risk premium reflecting the supply shortages that may occur when exports from the third-largest OPEC member are cut. As the Nov. 4 date for imposing sanctions draws nearer, the premium has increased. “The fear is that the sanctions could be so successful that it takes more oil off the market than the OPEC and non-OPEC producers can make up for,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston. Brent crude LCOc1 futures rose $1.67 to $79.04 a barrel, a 2.2 percent gain, by 1:10 p.m. EDT (1710 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures gained $1.95, or 2.9 percent, to $69.49 a barrel. Washington has told its allies to reduce imports of Iranian oil and several Asian buyers, including South Korea, Japan and India appear to be falling in line. But the U.S. government does not want to push up oil prices, which could depress economic activity or even trigger a slowdown in global growth. U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry met Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih on Monday in Washington, as the Trump administration encourages big oil-producing countries to keep output high. Perry will meet with Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak on Thursday in Moscow.
Russia, the United States and Saudi Arabia are the world’s three biggest oil producers by far, meeting around a third of the world’s almost 100 million barrels per day (bpd) of daily crude consumption.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday that Russia and a group of producers around the Middle East which dominate the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries may sign a new long-term cooperation deal at the beginning of December, the TASS news agency reported. Novak did not provide details. A group of OPEC and non-OPEC producers have been voluntarily withholding supplies since January 2017 to tighten markets, but with crude prices up by more than 40 percent since then and markets significantly tighter, there has been pressure on producers to raise output. On Tuesday the U.S. Energy Information Administration cut its 2018 world oil demand growth forecast by 80,000 barrels per day to 1.58 million bpd. U.S. crude inventories were forecast to have fallen for a fourth consecutive week last week, according analysts polled ahead of reports from industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) and the U.S. Department of Energy on Wednesday. Also supporting prices was an attack on the headquarters of Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) in the capital Tripoli on Monday. As Middle East markets tighten, Asian buyers are seeking alternative supplies, with South Korean and Japanese imports of U.S. crude hitting a record in September. U.S. oil producers are seeking new buyers for crude they used to sell to China before orders slowed because of the trade disputes between Washington and Beijing.
Wearing coral-red T-shirts and waving the red, yellow and blue Catalan separatist flag, a sea of protesters gathered for the rally on Catalonia’s “national day” which commemorates Barcelona’s fall to troops loyal to Spain’s King Philip V in 1714. The annual “Diada” holiday has since 2012 been used to stage a massive rally calling for secession for the wealthy northeastern region with its own distinct language. But this year’s event had particular significance as a test of strength after a referendum last October 1, and the Catalan parliament’s unilateral declaration of independence on October 27, all came to naught. Demonstrators climbed on each others shoulders to form human towers, a Catalan tradition, while others carried yellow and black signs that read “Free Catalan political prisoners now”, a reference to Catalan separatist leaders in jail awaiting trial over last year’s independence bid. City police said on Twitter that around one million people took part, a similar amount to last year’s protest. Organisers said they had sold over 200,000 coral-red T-shirts — the colour used in the ties used to secure the ballot boxes during last year’s contested referendum. At the start of the rally demonstrators knocked down a symbolic wall decorated with separatist symbols, a metaphor for the power of the people to overcome obstacles and achieve independence.Catalan president Quim Torra said the rally marks the start of a “mass mobilisation”. Further protests are planned for an anniversary of last year’s banned referendum, which was marred by police violence, and on the anniversary of the failed declaration of independence. Nick Note: this growing movement is to be watched. A further sign of the growing unrest that will blow apart the European Union
Chita (Russia) (AFP) – Russia launched Tuesday what it called its largest ever military drills, with hundreds of thousands of troops taking part along with Chinese soldiers in a show of force NATO condemned as a rehearsal for “large-scale conflict.” President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend the games after hosting an economic forum in Russia’s far eastern city Vladivostok where his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping is one of the prominent guests. The week-long war games dubbed “Vostok-2018″(East-2018) “have kicked off” in far eastern Russia, the defence ministry said. Taking part in the drills are around 300,000 soldiers, 36,000 military vehicles, 80 ships and 1,000 aircraft, helicopters and drones. Some 3,500 Chinese troops will take part in the games. The defence ministry released video footage of military vehicles, planes, helicopters and ships getting into position for the initial stage of the drills. Putin praised Russia’s increasingly close ties with China as he met with Xi at the economic forum in Vladivostok on Tuesday. “We have trustworthy ties in political, security and defence spheres,” the Russian leader said. Xi for his part said the two countries’ “friendship is getting stronger all the time.” The drills, which also include Mongolian soldiers, have been condemned by NATO as a rehearsal for “large-scale conflict”. The military exercises come at a time of escalating tensions between Moscow and the West over accusations of Russian interference in western affairs and conflicts in Ukraine and Syria. The Russian army has compared the show of force to the USSR’s 1981 war games that saw between 100,000 and 150,000 Warsaw Pact soldiers take part in “Zapad-81” (West-81) — the largest military exercises of the Soviet era. But Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said these exercises are even larger. “Imagine 36,000 military vehicles moving at the same time: tanks, armoured personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles — and all of this, of course, in conditions as close to a combat situation as possible,” Shoigu said. The exercises will be held across nine training ranges and three seas: the Sea of Japan, the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk. The Russian army is rolling out all of its latest additions for the event: Iskander missiles that can carry nuclear warheads, T-80 and T-90 tanks and its recent Su-34 and Su-35 fighter planes. At sea, the Russian fleet is deploying several frigates equipped with Kalibr missiles that have been used in Syria. Wednesday will see games featuring anti-aircraft technology, while the main event will be on Thursday, the defence ministry told journalists covering the event in eastern Siberia and the Far East. NATO said that Vostok-2018 “demonstrates Russia’s focus on exercising large-scale conflict”. “It fits into a pattern we have seen over some time — a more assertive Russia, significantly increasing its defence budget and its military presence,” the alliance’s spokesman Dylan White said late August. Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed such concerns on Tuesday. “These are very important drills but they are part of routine annual work to develop the armed forces,” he told journalists. Peskov has earlier said Russia’s “ability to defend itself in the current international situation which is often aggressive and unfriendly to our country is justified, essential and without alternative”. Relations between Russia and the West declined sharply in 2014 with Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of a Kremlin-backed uprising in eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin has accused NATO of expanding westwards and threatening Russian national security. Moscow has increased the number of its large-scale military exercises in the Caucasus, the Baltic and the Arctic in recent years. Russia’s previous military exercise in the region, Vostok-2014, was almost half the size, with 155,000 soldiers participating. The country’s war games in Eastern Europe last year, Zapad-2017, saw 12,700 troops take part, according to Moscow. Ukraine and the Baltic states said the true number was far bigger.
Boris Johnson has launched an attack on Theresa May’s Brexit strategy, claiming she has ‘wrapped a suicide vest’ around Britain. The ex-foreign secretary accused the Prime Minister of handing ‘the detonator’ to Brussels’ chief negotiator Michel Barnier. His extraordinary comments – just hours after he announced he would be divorcing his wife of 25 years, Marina Wheeler – have exposed deep divides within the Tory party, prompting a backlash from senior colleagues. Writing in the Mail on Sunday, Mr Johnson lashed out at the Northern Ireland ‘backstop,’ aimed at making sure there is no hard border with Ireland. He said: ‘We have opened ourselves to perpetual political blackmail. We have wrapped a suicide vest around the British constitution – and handed the detonator to Michel Barnier. ‘We have given him a jemmy with which Brussels can choose – at any time – to crack apart the union between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.’ Under the EU’s version of the exit plan, if no trade deal with the UK resolved the issue of the border problem, Northern Ireland would effectively remain part of the single market. Mr Johnson added: ‘At every stage in the talks so far, Brussels gets what Brussels wants. ‘We have agreed to the EU’s timetable; we have agreed to hand over £39 billion, for nothing in return. ‘Under the Chequers proposal we are set to agree to accept their rules – forever – with no say on the making of those rules. ‘It is a humiliation. We look like a seven-stone weakling being comically bent out of shape by a 500lb gorilla.’ The prominent Brexiteer’s latest assault will fuel speculation about his own leadership ambitions. Mr Johnson quit the Cabinet in opposition to her Chequers plan which would see the UK remain closely aligned with EU rules on goods. But the plan and the UK’s alternative backstop would both mean ‘agreeing to take EU rules, with no say on those rules’, leaving the country a ‘vassal state’. He said: ‘We have managed to reduce the great British Brexit to two appalling options: either we must divide the Union, or the whole country must accept EU law forever.’ He claimed there are ‘far better technical solutions’ to the Irish border issue. His comments drew a furious response from Tory MP and ex-army officer Tom Tugendhat. ‘A suicide bomber murdered many in the courtyard of my office in Helmand,’ he said. “Comparing the PM to that isn’t funny.’
A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. indicator designed to provide a “reasonable signal for future bear-market risk” has risen to the highest in almost 50 years.
The firm’s Bull/Bear Index, which is based on measures of equity valuation, growth momentum, unemployment, inflation and the yield curve, is now at levels last seen in 1969.
While the gauge is at levels that have historically preceded a bear market, Goldman strategists including Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a note last week that a long period of relatively low returns from stocks is a more likely alternative.
National Security Advisor to Donald Trump, John Bolton, has said the International Criminal Court (ICC) is “dead to us” in his latest speech. He labelled the court as “illegitimate” and “for all intents and purposes, the ICC is already dead to us.” Mr Bolton was speaking at a meeting of the Federalist Society, a conservative group based in Washington DC, said the ICC “ineffective, unaccountable, and indeed outright dangerous”. The court, established in 2002 in The Hague, Netherlands, has the power to prosecute individuals for war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity. The US never ratified the Rome Statute which established the court and Mr Bush, in the early days of the ongoing war in Afghanistan, never ratified it. Russian officials to meet with John Bolton next week, says Kremlin The court is getting ready to investigate detainee abuse in Afghanistan, an investigation Mr Bolton called “utterly unfounded,” adding: “We will provide no cooperation to the ICC”. The former US Ambassador to the United Nations under President George W Bush went on to say the “central aim of [the ICC’s] most vigorous supporters was to constrain the US”. Mr Bolton said the court’s statute had “glaring, significant flaws” and “constituted an assault on the Constitutional rights of the American people and the sovereignty of the US.” He also acknowledged his hecklers as Code Pink, an international charity which works to end US-funded wars, his “friends who follow me” everywhere. Mr Bolton, following a trend in the Trump administration of criticising multilateralism, branded the ICC as a “freewheeling global organisation governing over individuals without their consent”. He claimed American “soldiers, politicians, and private citizens” are at risk because the court assumes the automatic right to prosecute over everyone, even in countries which did not ratify the Rome Statute establishing the court. Israel, Sudan, Russia, and the US under Mr Bush, are four signatories of the statute who renounced their signatures and informed the UN they would no longer be subject to the legal obligations under the statute. Mr Bolton said the US’ “unsigning” of the Rome Statute was meant to protect Americans from the “unacceptable overreach” of the court.
How Bruce Ohr, President Trump’s latest Twitter target, fits a suspicious pattern of behavior on Russia.
Donald Trump has a long history of doing what he thinks is best for Donald Trump. If he needs to discard friends, allies or wives along the way, so be it. “I’m a greedy person,” he has explained. It’s important to keep this trait in mind when trying to make sense of the Russia story. Trump’s affinity for Russia, after all, is causing problems for him. It has created tensions with his own staff and his Republican allies in Congress. Most voters now believe he has something to hide. And the constant talk of Russia on television clearly enrages Trump. He could make his life easier if only he treated Vladimir Putin the way he treats most people who cause problems — and cast Putin aside. Yet Trump can’t bring himself to do so. This odd refusal is arguably the biggest reason to believe that Putin really does have leverage over Trump. Maybe it’s something shocking, like a sex tape or evidence of campaign collusion by Trump himself. Or maybe it’s the scandal that’s been staring us in the face all along: Illicit financial dealings — money laundering — between Trump’s business and Russia. The latest reason to be suspicious is Trump’s attacks on a formerly obscure Justice Department official named Bruce Ohr. Trump has repeatedly criticized Ohr and called for him to be fired. Ohr’s sin is that he appears to have been marginally involved in inquiries into Trump’s Russian links. But Ohr fits a larger pattern. In his highly respected three-decade career in law enforcement, he has specialized in going after Russian organized crime. It just so happens that most of the once-obscure bureaucrats whom Trump has tried to discredit also are experts in some combination of Russia, organized crime and money laundering. Consider: The financially rickety Trump Organization, shunned by most mainstream banks, long relied on less scrupulous Russian investors. “Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets,” Donald Trump Jr. said a decade ago. “We have all the funding we need out of Russia,” Eric Trump reportedly said in 2013. And what was the rare major bank to work with Trump? Deutsche Bank, which has a history of illegal Russian money laundering. Trump also had a habit of selling real estate to Russians in all-cash deals. Money launderers like such deals, because they can turn illegally earned cash into a legitimate asset, usually at an inflated price that rewards the seller for the risk. One especially dubious deal was Trump’s $95 million sale of a Palm Beach house to a Russian magnate in 2008 — during the housing bust, only four years after Trump had bought the house for $41 million. Then there is Trump’s paranoia about scrutiny of his businesses. He has refused to release his tax returns. He said that Mueller’s investigation would cross a red line by looking into his finances. When word leaked (incorrectly) that Mueller had subpoenaed Deutsche Bank’s records on Trump, he moved to fire Mueller (only to be dissuaded by aides). Trump is certainly acting as if his business history contains damaging information. For months, Adam Schiff, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, has been trying to get Congress to pay attention to the possibility of money laundering.
Ford Motor Co. had a quick and firm response Sunday to a claim by President Donald Trump that tariffs on Chinese goods would force the auto maker to build its Focus Active crossover in the U.S. — um, no. “It would not be profitable to build the Focus Active in the U.S. given an expected annual sales volume of fewer than 50,000 units,” Ford said in a statement Sunday. “Ford is proud to employ more U.S. hourly workers and build more vehicles in the U.S. than any other automaker.” Earlier in the day, Trump tweeted that “Ford has abruptly killed a plan to sell a Chinese-made small vehicle in the U.S. because of the prospect of higher U.S. Tariffs. . . . This car can now be BUILT IN THE U.S.A. and Ford will pay no tariffs!” In fact, on Aug. 31, Ford canceled plans to import compact Focus Actives that were made in China because of the high tariff costs. But that just meant the car will not be sold in the U.S. at all, since Ford saw it as a niche vehicle. The cars will continue to be sold elsewhere around the world.
“This is further evidence that neither the president nor his trade representatives have any clue of the complexities of global supply chains,” Jon Gabrielsen, a market economist who specializes in the auto industry, told the Detroit Free Press on Sunday.
Ford shares F, +1.02% have sunk almost 26% year to date, compared to the S&P 500’s SPX, +0.25% gain of more than 7%.
“You look at the operation of this White House and you have to say, ‘Let’s hope to God we don’t have a crisis,'” said Bob Woodward. For the Washington Post reporter, that is the bottom line to all the jaw-dropping chaos and discord described in his new book, “Fear: Trump in the White House” (published by Simon & Schuster, a division of CBS.
“People who work for him are worried … that he will sign things or give orders that threaten the national security or the financial security of the country, or of the world,” Woodward said.
Aides like then-Chief Economic Adviser Gary Cohn and White House Staff Secretary Rob Porter literally stole documents off the president’s desk in the Oval Office, such as a letter terminating a trade agreement with South Korea, so that, Woodward explained, Mr. Trump could not sign them: “Because they realized that this would endanger the country.” Martin asked, “How’d they get away with that?” “[Trump] doesn’t remember. If it’s not on his desk, if it’s not immediately available for action, it goes away.” Unelected officials like Cohn and Porter intentionally thwarting the actions of the elected president – the exact reverse of what a White House staff is supposed to do. In Woodward’s telling, President Trump does not see America as the indispensable nation; he sees it as an international sucker taken advantage of by allies and trading partners. He complained his advisors “don’t know anything about business. All they want to is protect everybody … that we pay for.” According to Woodward, the president is obsessed by the fact that the U.S. pays $3.5 billion a year to station troops in South Korea as a first line of defense against the North. “I don’t know why they’re there,” he said at one meeting. “Let’s bring them all home.” At another meeting, Secretary of Defense James Mattis starkly why the U.S. has 28,000 troops in Korea: “We’re doing this in order to prevent World War III.”
(CNN)Vice President Mike Pence was among the first to make the “I didn’t write it” pledge in the wake of a shocking anonymous essay — “I Am Part of the Resistance” — that revealed a conspiracy to save America from an unhinged President. Pence would likely pass the lie detector test that Sen. Rand Paul suggested to find the author, but this wouldn’t prove Pence had no influence on the thoughts of the anonymous writer or is preparing for Trump’s departure. The op-ed, published in The New York Times, notes that members of the Cabinet considered using the 25th Amendment to the Constitution to declare Donald Trump unfit and replace him with the vice president. (This is what is meant by those who suggest a “soft coup” is underway.) Although this scenario seems unlikely, Trump’s response to Anonymous — for example, asking Attorney General Jeff Sessions to investigate who wrote the op-ed — could prompt him to act in ways that would finally alienate supporters in Congress and elements of his base. Thus weakened, Trump’s departure by impeachment or other means would also open the door of the Oval Office to the vice president. The grave possibility of a crisis that ends the scandal-scarred Trump presidency could explain the vice president’s remarkable record of praising the chaotic commander-in-chief while making himself scarce at moments of crisis. Between his sycophancy, which moved George Will to say that Pence could be “America’s most repulsive figure,” and his widely noted absences, Pence has established a record that would make him blameless but also acceptable as a successor. In the role of loyal but often absent vice president, Pence has retained the support of the Trump base, which means there would be no great uprising if he assumes the presidency. Calm would prevail and no proof would be found linking him to the Resistance.
Washington (CNN)US officials met secretly with Venezuelan military officers who were plotting a coup against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, both a current and a former US official confirmed to CNN. American officials met with the renegade Venezuelan military officers several times over the last year after the Venezuelan officers made contact, but Washington ultimately decided against supporting the coup, the two sources said. The US did not provide the Venezuelan officers with any support and the plans for the coup ultimately fell apart, the sources said. The Trump administration’s discussions with the Venezuelan military officers about a potential coup were first reported Saturday morning by the New York Times. The current and former US officials confirmed to CNN that report is accurate. The White House declined to comment on the meetings between US officials and Venezuelan military officers, but said in a statement the US continues to support “a peaceful orderly return to democracy in Venezuela.” “U.S. policy preference for a peaceful, orderly return to democracy in Venezuela remains unchanged. The United States government hears daily the concerns of Venezuelans from all walks of life — be they members of the ruling party, the security services, elements of civil society or from among the millions of citizens forced by the regime to flee abroad. They share one goal: the rebuilding of democracy in their homeland,” said National Security Council spokesman Garrett Marquis. “A lasting solution to Venezuela’s worsening crisis can only arise following restoration of governance by democratic practices, the rule of law, and respect for fundamental human rights and freedoms.” Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza responded to the news through his verified Twitter account, saying the Maduro government denounces efforts to intervene in the Latin American nation. “We denounce before the world the intervention plans and the support to military conspiracies by the US government against Venezuela. In the US’s own media came to light new and crass evidence,” Arreaza tweeted. President Donald Trump has previously discussed the possibility of a military option in Venezuela. “We have many options for Venezuela. And by the way, I am not going to rule out a military option,” Trump said last August. Asked about the possibility of a military intervention in response to the mounting crisis in the country, the President said that is something the US “certainly could pursue.” Taking military action against Venezuela would be a dramatic escalation of the US’s so-far solely diplomatic and sanctions-focused response to the political and economic crisis roiling the South American country. In August 2017, Trump asked several advisers about the possibility of invading Venezuela, CNN reported in July. The Times’ report included details from the secret meetings, citing 11 current and former US officials and a former Venezuelan military commander sanctioned by the US government who was involved in the secret meetings.
The economic policies being pursued by the U.S. and China could bring about a massive slowdown in global growth, according to Britain’s top former bank regulator. Economic growth in the U.S. remains robust in 2018, yet in much of the rest of the world signs of deteriorating momentum have emerged since the start of the year. Strong and synchronized global growth in 2017 appears to have given way to a more varied outlook, with escalating global trade tensions — notably, between Washington and Beijing — keeping financial markets on edge. Investors are also keen to see how a package of massive U.S. tax cuts, instigated by Trump in late 2017, affect the economy. “The sheer scale of the Trumpian expansion in the U.S. could lead to inflationary pressures which produce a faster increase in U.S. interest rates than we anticipate. And that may then produce quite a sudden slowdown in the U.S. economy,” Adair Turner, former chair of the U.K. Financial Services Authority (FSA), told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy on Saturday. Simultaneously, he argued China’s ongoing efforts to rebalance its economy away, generally away from construction and towards consumption, were likely to prompt a slowdown in global economic growth. “Those two things together could produce a big slowdown in the global economy in 2020. Then a slowdown in the European economy, and where do I think the trouble will then arise? Well, maybe right here (Italy).”
“Italian government debt is only sustainable if the Italian economy keeps going. You just need a small recession across the European Union … And we could be back to talking about what are you going to do about Italian debt?” Turner said.
Italy’s coalition government is poised to present its 2019 budget next month, setting out its economic and financial plans for the coming year. The unveiling of Rome’s economic policies and growth projections for 2019 is likely to be a key moment for its populist government. That’s because Italy is the euro zone’s third-largest economy and the prospect of an economic collapse in Rome could damage the entire region’s financial and political stability. Earlier on Saturday, Italy’s former prime minister designate, Carlo Cottarelli, told CNBC he was also worried about Italy’s fragile economy. Cottarelli warned a global recession in the second-half of the year would represent a clear and present danger to the country’s economic prosperity.
if Congress won’t fund it through Homeland Security’s budget – and he won’t rule out another government shutdown to get his way
President Donald Trump said Friday that he’s considering using military resources to finish construction of his long-promised border wall instead of relying on Congress to fund the project through the Homeland Security Department’s budget. He also wouldn’t eliminate the possibility of a government shutdown if Democrats continue to confound his efforts to appropriate money for the project on the U.S.-Mexico border. ‘We have two options,’ he told DailyMail.com aboard Air Force One as he flew from Billings, Montana to Fargo, North Dakota. ‘We have military, we have homeland security.’ He was asked specifically about using the Army Corps of Engineers as a taxpayer-funded construction crew. President Donald Trump said Friday that he’s considering using military resources to finish construction of his long-promised border wall, as she spoke to the press on Air Force One, above on Friday ‘We have two options,’ he told DailyMail.com aboard Air Force One as he flew from Billings, Montana to Fargo, North Dakota. ‘We have military, we have homeland security’ Trump said he would prefer to fund the ambitious construction ‘the old-fashioned way – get it from Congress – but I have other options if I have to.’ He’s seeking about $25 billion. The possibility of diverting Pentagon funding and assets to build a border wall is a hole card the president is holding but has never directly acknowledged before. Two Defense Department officials told DailyMail.com in August that the Army Corps of Engineers could take on the task. The White House appears headed for another confrontation with Congress over an increase in funding for the project after securing $1.6 billion for 2007 and the same amount for this year. A senior White House official said Thursday that the money was ‘basically a down-payment on the thing’. The possibility looms that the president will refuse to sign the next federal budget, due September 30, if lawmakers don’t go along with more installments. That would trigger a government shutdown. ‘If it were up – I don’t want to say “up to me,” because it is up to me – I would do it,’ he said aboard Air Force One, ‘because I think it’s a great political issue.’ But he said some Republicans in Congress, facing tough re-election fights, have counseled more patience.
The world’s two largest economies have already applied tariffs to $50 billion of each other’s goods. Talks aimed at easing tensions ended last month without major breakthroughs, and Washington appears emboldened by a sell-off in Chinese markets and a weakening economy. Trump said Wednesday he was not prepared to make a deal with China “that they’d like to make.” Still, he added, his administration will “continue to talk to China.” Trump’s remarks to reporters on Friday sparked a 100-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average around 12 p.m. ET, with the apparent escalation in the trade tensions with China.
Dallas Fed’s Kaplan comfortable with raising rates to a range between 2.5%-2.75%
The president of the Dallas Federal Reserve said Friday the tax cuts and federal spending increases are having their biggest impact right now, suggesting they will not make lasting changes to the economy. Robert Kaplan, in an interview with Fox Business Network, said the economic impact from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will decrease next year.
“It is our view and it’s my view at the Dallas Fed that we’re at the height of the impact of the stimulus right now, the fiscal stimulus.
That will fade somewhat in ’19 and will fade further in ’20 and you still got some headwinds, sluggish labor force growth because the demographics [of] aging and sluggish productivity, those will start to kick in more as the fiscal stimulus fades,” he said.
Kaplan said trade disputes are having the impact of limiting capital expenditure growth.
“The tax legislation and tax reform cause companies to accelerate capex that they might have done a year or two from now to do it today because of the tax incentives,” Kaplan said. “I also think you’re seeing additional capex in the energy business because of the production growth, high prices but I do think companies are telling me that they, yes, they are taking a wait-and-see approach because of the uncertainty around trade. So, it’s having a little bit of a chilling effect and so that’s something to just be aware of and take note of.”As for the jobs report, Kaplan said it didn’t change his view of the U.S. economy. He also said he’s been expecting wage growth to accelerate, as it did in August. “I’ve been expecting for several months now that you’d see the wage number firming. And it’s consistent with a tight labor market, I still believe that a lot of the big structural drivers in the world, automation, globalization will mute overall inflation pressures. But I actually think the wage growth number is welcome and it is probably consistent with our outlook for the economy and what it’s been the last few months,” he said.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Wall Street’s major indexes fell on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump raised the possibility of additional tariffs on Chinese imports and Apple Inc indicated that some of its products could be subjected to such levies. U.S. stocks were lower for most of Friday’s session but dipped further in the last half-hour of trading on reports that Apple products, including the Apple Watch and AirPods, would be slapped with duties. Apple shares, which had been in positive territory for most of the session, ended 0.8 percent lower. The company provided those details in response to the White House’s proposed tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. A comment period for those tariffs ended on Thursday night. Earlier on Friday, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Trump would not make any decisions on those tariffs until officials evaluated public comments. “Apple is a bellwether name,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial in Newark, New Jersey. “(That’s) why we may be seeing some profit-taking going into the weekend.” U.S. stocks had already been pressured after Trump said he had tariffs ready to impose on an additional $267 billion worth of Chinese imports, on top of the proposed $200 billion. The escalated trade rhetoric contributed to anxiety among investors regarding the market’s outlook. “There’s the possibility of (China) devaluing its currency again, which pushes up the dollar and turns the pressure up on U.S. exporters,” Krosby said. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 79.33 points, or 0.31 percent, to 25,916.54, the S&P 500 lost 6.37 points, or 0.22 percent, to 2,871.68 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 20.19 points, or 0.25 percent, to 7,902.54. For the week, the Dow lost 0.19 percent, the S&P fell 1.03 percent, and the Nasdaq shed 2.55 percent. The Nasdaq registered its greatest weekly percentage decline since late March, while the S&P’s weekly percentage drop was its biggest since late June. With the added pressures from trade concerns, 10 out of the S&P’s 11 major sectors ended lower. Only health care stocks posted gains. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.21-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.24-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 37 new 52-week highs and 16 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 99 new highs and 66 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 6.25 billion shares, compared to the 6.2 billion average over the last 20 trading days.
WASHINGTON — President Trump intensified his attack Friday on an anonymous Op-Ed essay published in The New York Times, declaring that he wanted Attorney General Jeff Sessions to investigate the source of the article, which he has condemned as an act of treason. Mr. Trump said he was also considering action against The Times, though he did not elaborate. Prosecutors said it would be inappropriate for the Justice Department to conduct such an investigation, since it was likely that no laws were broken, while The Times said it would be an abuse of power. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One as he traveled to Fargo, N.D., Mr. Trump said, “I would say Jeff should be investigating who the author of that piece was because I really believe it’s national security.” The president has raged against the essay since The Times published it on Wednesday afternoon, setting off a frenzy of speculation in the capital about the identity of the author and prompting a parade of denials from cabinet members and other prominent officials in the Trump administration.
“We’re going to take a look at what he had, what he gave, what he’s talking about, also where he is right now,” he said. While the president suggested that the anonymous writer was not a senior official, he said that the person might nonetheless have a security clearance that allows him or her to attend sensitive national security meetings involving China, Russia or North Korea. “I don’t want him in those meetings,” Mr. Trump said.
In a statement, The Times said, “We’re confident that the Department of Justice understands that the First Amendment protects all American citizens and that it would not participate in such a blatant abuse of government power.
“The president’s threats both underscore why we must safeguard the identity of the writer of this Op-Ed and serve as a reminder of the importance of a free and independent press to American democracy,” the statement said.
Former President Barack Obama on Friday lamented the state of politics today, calling out his successor, Donald Trump, by name as he started his push to ramp up Democratic energy for midterms. Mr. Obama made his return to the political arena by giving a speech at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign after receiving the Paul H. Douglas Award for Ethics in Government. He praised America’s accomplishments but said there is a darker side to progress when politicians peddle resentment and mistrust to preserve the status quo. “It did not start with Donald Trump. He is a symptom, not the cause,” Mr. Obama said. “He’s just capitalizing on resentments that politicians have been fanning for years.” Mr. Obama also took a jab at Mr. Trump’s emphasis on the economy, telling the audience “remember when that recovery started.”