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WASHINGTON—Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his intention to keep easy-money policies in place but provided no sign the central bank will seek to stem a recent rise in Treasury yields, prompting them to rise further. Stocks also sold off on Mr. Powell’s remarks Thursday during an interview at The Wall Street Journal Jobs Summit. The appearance came a week after a jump in Treasury yields driven by forecasts of stronger U.S. economic growth and inflation this year, among other factors. “Today we’re still a long way from our goals of maximum employment and inflation averaging 2% over time,” Mr. Powell said Thursday during the interview.The Covid-19 pandemic continues to upend the job market.  Some analysts said his latest remarks did little to ease investor fears about rising bond yields.“The market was looking for some more reassurance and didn’t get it,” said Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI. Fed officials “don’t appear particularly concerned about the current level of yields, which in both real and nominal terms is significantly higher than it was two weeks ago.” The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose above 1.55% after Mr. Powell’s interview—its highest level since before the pandemic—up from 1.46% earlier Thursday and 0.92% at the beginning of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 345.95 points, or 1.11%, to 30924.14 Thursday. The S&P 500 declined 51.25 points, or 1.34%, to 3768.47, the third consecutive session of declines. The Nasdaq Composite fell 274.28 points, or 2.11%, to 12723.47. Meanwhile, oil prices rose Thursday after OPEC and a Russia-led coalition of oil producers kept most of their production cuts in place, surprising traders who had expected the group to increase output. Mr. Powell’s remarks came at his last scheduled public event before Fed policy makers meet on March 16-17. He said the central bank will maintain ultra-low interest rates until its employment and inflation goals have been met, and will continue hefty asset purchases until “substantial further progress” has been made. Recent evidence suggests the labor market is improving, but slowly. The Labor Department said Thursday that filings for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, rose slightly to 745,000 in the week ended Feb. 27, down from 927,000 in early January but more than three times their pre-pandemic levels. Mr. Powell noted that the U.S. has about 10 million fewer jobs than before the pandemic and said, “It will take some time to get back to maximum employment.”The central bank has held its overnight federal-funds rate near zero since last March. It has sought to suppress longer-term rates by purchasing, since last June, at least $120 billion a month of Treasury debt and mortgage-backed securities. As bond yields have risen, some investors have begun to speculate that the Fed could start to skew its asset purchases or holdings toward longer-dated instruments in order to keep borrowing costs low. Asked Thursday about the climb in long-term rates, Mr. Powell said it “was something that was notable and caught my attention.” But he signaled no imminent policy response from the central bank. “I would be concerned by disorderly conditions in markets or a persistent tightening in financial conditions that threatens the achievement of our goals,” Mr. Powell said Thursday. He added that the Fed is looking at “a broad range of financial conditions,” rather than a single measure. “If conditions do change materially, the [Fed’s rate-setting] committee is prepared to use the tools that it has to foster achievement of its goals,” Mr. Powell said.  Mr. Powell said last week that the Fed doesn’t foresee lifting its benchmark fed-funds rate from near zero until three conditions have been met: a broad range of statistics indicate that the labor market is at maximum strength, inflation has hit its 2% target, and forecasters expect inflation to remain at that level or higher.

 

farm employment in the United States increased by 379,000 in February, according to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. The figure exceeded expectations which hovered at around 200,000. The unemployment rate was little changed compared to the previous month at 6.2%, as well as the number of unemployed persons, at 10 million. The number of persons on temporary layoff fell by 517,000 in February to 2.2 million, although it is still 1.5 million higher on a yearly basis. The number of long-term unemployed was reported at 4.1 million, little changed from January, but up by 3 million over the year. The labor force participation rate remained at 61.4% in February.

LONDON (Reuters) – OPEC+ maintained its oil output policy at a meeting this week as the price of crude hit its highest in almost a year, a sign that deep supply cuts are draining inventories despite an uncertain outlook for demand recovery. A Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of OPEC+ met virtually on Wednesday, pronouncing itself “optimistic for (a) year of recovery in 2021,” a draft statement seen by Reuters said. Oil has rallied from historic lows hit last year as the pandemic hit demand, thanks to record output cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+. The OPEC+ panel made no mention of changing its oil policy, which calls for most members to hold supply steady in February and top exporter Saudi Arabia to cut output voluntarily by 1 million barrels per day this month and next. Nick Note: Do not kid yourself this economy is coming back alive… Its called a reflation.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Capitol Police say they have uncovered intelligence of a “possible plot” by a militia group to breach the U.S. Capitol on Thursday, nearly two months after a mob of supporters of then-President Donald Trump stormed the iconic building to try to stop Congress from certifying now-President Joe Biden’s victory. The threat appears to be connected to a far-right conspiracy theory, mainly promoted by supporters of QAnon, that Trump will rise again to power on March 4. That was the original presidential inauguration day until 1933, when it was moved to Jan. 20. Online chatter identified by authorities included discussions among members of the Three Percenters, an anti-government militia group, concerning possible plots against the Capitol on Thursday, according to two law enforcement officials who were not authorized to speak publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity. Members of the Three Percenters were among the extremists who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6. The announcement comes as the Capitol police and other law enforcement agencies are taking heat from Congress in contentious hearings this week on their handling of the Jan. 6 riot. Police were ill-prepared for the mass of Trump supporters in tactical gear, some armed, and it took hours for National Guard reinforcements to come. By then, rioters had broken and smashed their way into the building and roamed the halls for hours, stalling Congress’ certification effort temporarily and sending lawmakers into hiding. “The United States Capitol Police Department is aware of and prepared for any potential threats towards members of Congress or towards the Capitol complex,” the agency said in a statement. “We have obtained intelligence that shows a possible plot to breach the Capitol by an identified militia group on Thursday, March 4.” Police did not identify the militia group in the statement. The U.S. House was abruptly wrapping its work for the week Wednesday night given the threat of violence. An advisory sent earlier this week to members of Congress by Timothy Blodgett, the acting House sergeant-at-arms, said that the Capitol Police had “no indication that groups will travel to Washington D.C. to protest or commit acts of violence.” But that advisory was updated in a note to lawmakers Wednesday morning. Blodgett wrote that the Capitol Police had received “new and concerning information and intelligence indicating additional interest in the Capitol for the dates of March 4th – 6th by a militia group.” In her testimony to the House panel, acting Capitol Police Chief Yogananda Pittman said her investigators had collected “some concerning intelligence,” but declined to provide any details publicly, saying that it was “law enforcement sensitive” and that she would provide a private briefing for the subcommittee members. Lawmakers, congressional staffers and law enforcement officials are still on edge after the attack last month, even as the security posture around the Capitol remains at an unprecedented level. On Wednesday, federal agents were seeking to determine whether there was an increase in the number of hotel rooms being rented in Washington, as well as monitoring flights to the area, car rental reservations and any buses being chartered to bring groups into the capital, a person familiar with the matter told The Associated Press. The person could not publicly discuss details of the security planning and spoke on condition of anonymity.

The FBI and Department of Homeland Security also sent a joint intelligence bulletin to local law enforcement officials Tuesday warning that a group of militia extremists had discussed trying to take control of the Capitol on March 4 and encouraging thousands of people to come to D.C. to try to remove Democrats from power.

There has been a noticeable decline in online activity on some social media platforms surrounding efforts on March 4, and there was already considerably less online chatter than during the lead-up to Jan. 6, a day that Trump repeatedly had promoted for a his rally and encouraged thousands to come to the nation’s capital.  Several QAnon groups still operating on the social media messaging platform Telegram warned followers to stay away from any events on March 4, claiming it was a setup for Trump supporters. “If there are groups out there planning and advertising events on or around March 4 anywhere in the country (DC included) we strongly urge everyone to avoid them entirely,” one Telegram user wrote late last month in a QAnon group that has more than 65,000 followers. There’s also a very large fence in place around the U.S. Capitol that blocks off all avenues of entry including on the streets around the building, which was put in place after Jan. 6. Also, thousands of accounts that promoted the Jan. 6 event that led to a violent storming of the U.S. Capitol have since been suspended by major tech companies like Facebook and Twitter, making it far more difficult for QAnon and far-right groups to organize a repeat of the mass gathering on Thursday. Twitter banned more than 70,000 accounts after the riots, while Facebook and Instagram removed posts mentioning “stop the steal,” a pro-Trump rallying cry used to mobilize his supporters in January. And the conservative social media platform Parler, which many of Trump’s supporters joined to promote false election fraud conspiracy theories and encourage friends to “storm” the Capitol on Jan. 6, was booted off the internet following the siege. Capitol Police say that they have stepped up security around the Capitol complex since January’s insurrection, adding physical security measures such as the fencing topped with razor wire around the Capitol and members of the National Guard who remain at the complex. The statement said the agency was “taking the intelligence seriously” but provided no other specific details on the threat. “I think they are definitely prepared for any threats that may come our way in the next couple days,” said Rep. Jennifer Wexton, D-Va., who was one of several lawmakers briefed privately by the police. Wexton added that she still questioned the long-term security plan for the Capitol and said Pittman, the acting chief, “has not come up with proactive ways to fix the issues that they had.” So far, about 300 people have been charged with federal crimes for their roles in the riot. Five people, including a Capitol Police officer, died. Since his defeat, Trump has been promoting lies that the election was stolen from him through mass voter fraud, even though such claims have been rejected by judges, Republican state officials and Trump’s own administration. He was impeached by the House after the Jan. 6 riot on a c harge of incitement of insurrection but was acquitted by the Senate. Nick Note: This is beyond stupid,,, their will  be no attack

https://youtu.be/0VP2jv5BRIE

The coronavirus may have originated in China but its economic impact is being felt most acutely elsewhere. From Europe to North America, advanced nations are battling to contain a resurgence in infection rates and are bracing themselves for double-digit falls in output this year. They can only look with envy to China, where the economy has already recovered. Here is picture during lockdown”

China did it right shit it down completley and totally….. test the shit out of everyone and only open up once the plague is under control. See how China loofs once it reopened:

Nick Note: America is making a BIG mistake opening prematurely. In a few months sufficient numbers of people will have been vaccinated.

President Joe Biden and federal health experts hit back Wednesday against Texas and Mississippi dropping their Covid-19 business restrictions and mask mandates, with Biden criticizing the decisions as “a big mistake,” joining a chorus of public health experts and officials who have spoken out against the orders being lifted while cases remain high and coronavirus variants spread. With the U.S. on the “cusp” of widespread vaccinations, the “last thing” it needs is “Neanderthal thinking that ‘in the meantime everything’s fine, take off your mask, forget it,’” Biden told reporters Wednesday, after White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki criticized the decision at an earlier press briefing, saying, “This entire country has paid the price for political leaders who ignored the science when it comes to the pandemic.” Dr. Anthony Fauci also criticized the states’ decisions as “ill-advised” and “really quite risky” at a town hall Wednesday with the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union, noting that in the past when cases have plateaued as they are now, “when you pull back on measures of public health, invariably you’ve seen a surge back up.” “The CDC have been very clear that now is not the time to release all restrictions,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Rochelle Wallensky said at a briefing Wednesday about the dropped measures, noting residents are “empowered to do their own thing here” by continuing to wear a mask and social distance “regardless of what the state decides.” The comments follow a series of high-profile figures who spoke out against Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s decision Tuesday: Texas politician and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke slammed the move as a “death warrant for Texans,” while Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said Texas’s dropped restrictions “endangers the entire country and beyond.” Local leaders throughout Texas also criticized Abbott, with San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg saying lifting the measures is a “huge mistake” akin to “cut[ting] off your parachute just as you’ve slowed your descent.”Health officials in Texas have also responded to the governor’s decision with outrage: Houston Health Department official Dr. David Persse said Tuesday he was “at a bit of a loss for words,” and Memorial Hermann Health System CEO Dr. David Callender told KHOU11, “I think the typical response I’ve heard today from our people is, what is he thinking?”

https://youtu.be/ZVqszSsuVgo

President Joe Biden and Democrats agreed Wednesday to tighten the upper income limits at which people could qualify for stimulus checks, a Democratic official said, a major concession to moderates as party leaders prepared to move their $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill through the Senate. The COVID-19 relief measure Senate Democrats planned to unveil will also retain the $400 weekly emergency jobless benefits that were included in a House-approved version of the legislation, the official said. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal Democratic conversations.

The changes came with Republicans, who may unanimously oppose the legislation, lashing the bill as an overpriced Democratic wish list that lavishes help on many who don’t really need it.

In a 50-50 Senate where Democrats must remain united, party moderates have been pushing to refocus the bill’s spending more closely on those must hurt by the pandemic and resulting economic slowdown. As part of Democrats’ legislative thrust on what is Biden’s top initial legislative priority, individuals earning up to $75,000 — and couples up to $150,000 — would get $1,400 checks per person. The version the House approved last Saturday would gradually phase down those amounts and reach zero for individuals making $100,000 and couples earning $200,000.

But under Wednesday’s agreement, those checks would end for individuals making $80,000 and couples earning $160,000, the official said.

But Biden and party leaders stood firm and will retain the $400 weekly emergency jobless benefits, which are paid on top of regular state payments. Moderates have wanted to trim those payments to $300 per week, with some saying the higher amount could discourage people from returning to their jobs. On Tuesday, Biden took to Twitter to signal he wouldn’t budge from his demand that lawmakers add a fresh $1,400 payment to the $600 that millions of individuals received from a December relief measure. That new installment comprises nearly a quarter of the overall bill’s cost. “The fact is that $600 is not enough. The Senate needs to pass the American Rescue Plan and finish the job of delivering $2,000 in direct relief,” Biden wrote in one of his infrequent uses of a medium his predecessor, Donald Trump, at times used over 100 times daily. The huge relief package is a too-big-to-fail moment for the fledging president, who would be politically staggered if Congress — controlled narrowly by Democrats but controlled nonetheless — failed to deliver. Conquering the virusthat’s killed half a million Americans and flung the economy and countless lives into tailspins is Biden’s top initial priority. So far, Republicans are following the template they set during Barack Obama’s presidency. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said he hoped GOP senators would oppose the bill unanimously, as their House counterparts did early Saturday when that chamber approved its version of the measure. “The new administration made a conscious effort to jam us,” McConnell told reporters. “We’ll be fighting this in every way that we can.”

Democrats are using special rules that will let them avoid GOP filibusters that would require them to garner an impossible 60 votes to approve the legislation.

The Senate bill was expected to largely mirror the House-approved package, with the most glaring divergence the Senate’s dropping of language boosting the federal minimum wage to $15 hourly.President-elect Joe Biden is hoping to jump-start the economy with his sweeping $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan.  Schumer said Senate debate would commence as soon as Wednesday and predicted, “We’ll have the votes we need to pass the bill.” Democrats want to send a final package to Biden by March 14, when an earlier round of emergency jobless benefits expires. The bill has hundreds of billions of dollars for schools and colleges, COVID-19 vaccines and testing, mass transit systems, renters and small businesses. It also has money for child care, tax breaks for families with children and assistance for states willing to expand Medicaid coverage for low-income residents. It was clear there were still moving parts. Senate Democrats were removing $1.5 million for a bridge between New York state and Canada and around $140 million for a rapid transit project south of San Francisco after Republicans cast both as pet projects for Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D—Calif. Aides to both Democratic leaders said the projects weren’t new and had been supported by the Trump administration. Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, said he wants the bill’s $350 billion for state and local governments to specify minimum amounts for municipal governments and has called for $50 billion to improve broadband coverage.

Despite every Democrats’ huge leverage because all their votes are needed, none have so far threatened to sink the legislation if they don’t get their way. All are aware of how that would rattle Biden’s presidency and Democrats’ ability to be productive during this Congress.

“We want to get the biggest, strongest bill that can pass, and that’s what we’re going to do,” Schumer said. There were indications loose ends were falling into place. In one sign, 11 Democratic senators wrote Biden urging him to use a huge, upcoming infrastructure bill to create regularly paid relief and jobless benefits that would be automatically triggered by economic conditions. Some progressives had wanted those payments included in the COVID-19 bill. Democrats’ push to include it in later legislation suggested an effort to satisfy progressives while avoiding jeopardizing the current package. Progressives, though, were still smarting over the virtual certainty that the Senate bill will lack the minimum wage boost, up from $7.25 hourly locked in since 2009. The chamber’s nonpartisan parliamentarian said last week that including that increase violated Senate budget rules. Opposition by moderates including Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., has left Democrats without the votes needed to salvage it. Nick Note: Making sausage is a ugly process. The market as i write this is swooning on the mistaken belief the happy checks are in question. I believe the stimulus bill will be passed without any Republican support. Now that the filibuster is gone it takes a simple majority in congress to pass. Which the Democrats have with MRSSS Harris vote.

CHICAGO (Reuters) – Chris Murray, a University of Washington disease expert whose projections on COVID-19 infections and deaths are closely followed worldwide, is changing his assumptions about the course of the pandemic. Murray had until recently been hopeful that the discovery of several effective vaccines could help countries achieve herd immunity, or nearly eliminate transmission through a combination of inoculation and previous infection. But in the last month, data from a vaccine trial in South Africa showed not only that a rapidly-spreading coronavirus variant could dampen the effect of the vaccine, it could also evade natural immunity in people who had been previously infected.

“I couldn’t sleep” after seeing the data, Murray, director of the Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told Reuters. “When will it end?” he asked himself, referring to the pandemic. He is currently updating his model to account for variants’ ability to escape natural immunity and expects to provide new projections as early as this week.

A new consensus is emerging among scientists, according to Reuters interviews with 18 specialists who closely track the pandemic or are working to curb its impact. Many described how the breakthrough late last year of two vaccines with around 95% efficacy against COVID-19 had initially sparked hope that the virus could be largely contained, similar to the way measles has been. But, they say, data in recent weeks on new variants from South Africa and Brazil has undercut that optimism. They now believe that SARS-CoV-2 will not only remain with us as an endemic virus, continuing to circulate in communities, but will likely cause a significant burden of illness and death for years to come. As a result, the scientists said, people could expect to continue to take measures such as routine mask-wearing and avoiding crowded places during COVID-19 surges, especially for people at high risk. Even after vaccination, “I still would want to wear a mask if there was a variant out there,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical advisor to U.S. President Joe Biden, said in an interview. “All you need is one little flick of a variant (sparking) another surge, and there goes your prediction” about when life gets back to normal. Some scientists, including Murray, acknowledge that the outlook could improve. The new vaccines, which have been developed at record speed, still appear to prevent hospitalizations and death even when new variants are the cause of infection. Many vaccine developers are working on booster shots and new inoculations that could preserve a high level of efficacy against the variants. And, scientists say there is still much to be learned about the immune system’s ability to combat the virus. Already, COVID-19 infection rates have declined in many countries since the start of 2021, with some dramatic reductions in severe illness and hospitalizations among the first groups of people to be vaccinated.