Posted on

Oil Market Looking into the Abyss….. Bottoming…. Again

It seems that the global oil market is going through a critical phase, where economic and geopolitical factors intertwine, casting a heavy shadow over crude prices, particularly U.S. crude, which continues its downward trajectory.

That’s what Rania Gule, a senior market analyst at XS.com-MENA, said in a market analysis sent on Wednesday, adding that “this sharp decline, the most significant since November 2021, cannot merely be seen as a technical correction or a routine supply and demand adjustment”. “Rather, it is a direct reflection of mounting concerns over a global economic slowdown fueled by protectionist policies and escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies – the United States and China,” Gule said in the analysis. Gule went on to note that, from her perspective, investors have grown increasingly sensitive to any signs of economic weakness. “The recent steep drop in U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest level since April 2020 stands as a clear indication of fragile economic sentiment,” Gule said in the analysis.

“This significant decline did not occur in a vacuum; it coincided with sudden tariff decisions by President Donald Trump, sparking a new round of trade confrontation with China,” Gule added.

“In such an environment, crude oil, as a sovereign commodity closely linked to growth and industrial activity, is often the first to take a hit, amid fears of shrinking global demand and slower supply chains,” Gule continued. Gule highlighted in the report that, in her view, “the issue is not solely about demand”. “The supply side is also placing additional pressure on prices. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed an unexpected increase of 3.8 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories, intensifying market fears of a structural supply surplus,” Gule pointed out. “When the actual increase exceeds market expectations by nearly tenfold, as is the case here, it serves as a strong negative signal that reflects weak drawdowns from inventories – a clear sign of slowing industrial or consumer activity,” Gule added. “Adding to this, there’s speculation that OPEC+ may accelerate its production hikes in the upcoming meeting. While this move might be aimed at protecting market share or preempting a future rise in demand, the timing seems ill-advised,” Gule continued. The analyst noted in the analysis that the market is not currently suffering from a supply shortage, it’s grappling with weak consumption. “If additional production increases are approved in June, we could witness a new wave of selloffs, possibly pushing prices to levels not seen since the peak of the Covid-19 crisis,” Gule warned.

In the analysis, Gule said she would not rule out crude prices falling below $55 in the coming weeks, “especially if there’s no tangible improvement in global demand indicators or resolution to the tariff escalation between Washington and Beijing”.

“Therefore, the outlook for oil prices leans toward the negative in the short to medium term,” Gule noted.

In an oil report  by the Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) team today, Bjarne Schieldrop, the chief commodities analyst at the company, noted that “Brent crude f[ell]… with strong conviction that [a] trade war will hurt demand for oil”.

“Brent crude sold off 2.4 percent yesterday to $64.25 per barrel along with rising concerns that the U.S. trade war with China will soon start to visibly hurt oil demand or that it has already started to happen,” Schieldrop said in the report. “Tariffs between the two are currently at 145 percent and 125 percent in the U.S. and China respectively, which implies a sharp decline in trade between the two if at all,” he added. “This morning Brent crude (June contract) is trading down another 1.2 percent to $63.3 per barrel. The June contract is rolling off today and a big question is how that will leave the shape of the Brent crude forward curve,” Schieldrop continued. “Will the front-end backwardation in the curve evaporate further or will the July contract, now at $62.35 per barrel, move up to where the June contract is today?” he went on to state.

NN: wti uner$60 is a screaming buy. same for brent in the $63 range again….. be careful after all this is balls to the wall speculating……. their will be a trade deal with china
Posted on

Kremlin: Ukraine war can’t be resolved quickly……. Lavrov: Russia doesn’t see possibility for ‘honest’ truce

Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday that the Ukraine war is “too complex” and, as a result, cannot be resolved “quickly.” The Kremlin spokesman said Moscow appreciated the United States’ efforts to broker a deal and expressed hope they will be successful. However, he pointed out that the final deal must be reached with Ukraine, not the US. “A peace agreement must be concluded with Ukraine, not with America. America is trying to act as a mediator, and we are grateful to the United States for these truly incredible efforts,” Peskov noted.

Lavrov: Russia doesn’t see possibility for ‘honest’ truce

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday that Moscow doesn’t see a possibility for honest supervision or compliance regarding a potential truce with Ukraine. “The ability of the Ukrainian regime to organize provocations is well known. Undoubtedly, these provocations would continue regardless of how this truce is organized. We do not see the possibility of honest monitoring for honest compliance with this truce,” Lavrov commented while speaking at a press conference of the Council of BRICS Foreign Ministers. Russian President Vladimir Putin previously announced a three day truce following the Victory Day celebrations, during which all hostilities will stop.

nn: so much for peace in the valley and lifting of sanctions on  Russian oil
Posted on

CHILL

Oil prices are once again under pressure as supply concerns continue unabated, with a scarcity of bullish catalysts to counteract them. The future of the U.S.-China import tariff war will define energy prices of the upcoming months as the Trump administration’s 145% tariff on China (and the reciprocal 125% from Beijing)WILL SOON END.

Brent prices have dipped below $65 per barrel again as the seemingly inopportune bluff of Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ countries to unwind even more production into the summer months depresses market sentiment. A potential Russia-Ukraine negotiations breakthrough or a rapprochement between the US and Iran will  end in military action.

The White House imposed sanctions on three tankers delivering oil and refined products to Yemen’s Houthis, with the Tulip, Maisan, and White Whale vessels routinely shuttling to the port of Ras Isa, as the Trump administration ramps up pressure on them.

 Iraq’s top political brass met with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa this week to discuss restoring the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline, out of operation since 2003 when it was damaged by US airstrikes, seeking to avoid intermediaries in supplying the Syrian market.

At least six tankers have been queuing next to Venezuela’s oil ports, including 5 vessels chartered by Chevron and one by trading firm Vitol, as the Latin American country is bracing for the May 27 expiry of the US oil major’s production license.

NN: chill… the trade war is winding down…much ado about nothing… oil is roiling over on contract and options expiation. we are $5 over the recent lows and $4 off  the  recent highs. as expiration ends i believe oil will pop back up.
Posted on

Medvedev: NATO countries potential nuclear targets

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev warned Tuesday that all countries that joined NATO became an automatic target for the Russian military, including retaliatory strikes involving nuclear weapons. Medvedev hinted that newly-joined NATO states such as Finland and Sweden are now “in a hostile bloc” against Russia, stressing it did not improve the lives of their citizens. At the same time, Russia’s former president again accused Western countries of “drowning in Russophobia,” adding that the extent of these countries’ hostility towards Moscow is surprising. “They carefully learned the methodologies of their predecessors,” he concluded.

nn: who is afraid of the latest russian nuclear blow and go
Posted on

Oil loses 1.5% on reputed progress in Gaza talks…..BULLSHIT!……Israel strikes a Hezbollah missile facility in Beirut amid escalating tensions

The prices of oil futures declined by more than 1.5% on Tuesday after Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani said there had been “some progress” in the latest negotiations about a ceasefire and prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas. Meanwhile, an Israeli official noted improvements, although not significant ones.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for June’s deliveries decreased by 1.56% at 4:56 am ET to sell for $61.06 per barrel. At that minute, Brent for the same month’s settlements dropped by 1.73% to go for $64.72 per barrel.

Israel strikes a Hezbollah missile facility in Beirut amid escalating tensions

nn: THIS is nothing to do with peace…. their will be no peace. this is bringing the price low for option roll over.  i expect oil to pop. i remind you oil  at these levels is still $5.00 off its recent lows.
Posted on

Spanish govt: All resources devoted to blackout issue

The Spanish government said in a statement on Monday that it is “dedicating all resources” towards determining the origin of the massive blackout that hit the Iberian Peninsula earlier today and resolving the issue. The government noted Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and other officials travelled to the control center of the grid operator Red Electrica to “see firsthand the situation generated in the electricity supply.” Earlier, the country’s National Cryptologic Center (CCN) said it is investigating the cause of the power outage, stressing it cannot rule out a cyberattack.

Posted on

Houthis vow strikes on warships in Red, Arabian Seas….. US expands sanctions against Houthis

The SPC-aligned Yemeni Armed Forces, a faction aligned with the Houthi movement, announced Monday that they would continue targeting “aircraft carriers and all enemy warships” in the Red and Arabian Seas until attacks on Yemen cease. Spokesperson Yahya Sare’e (pictured in video)  said US forces committed two “massacres” in recent hours: one in Sana’a and another at a migrant center in Sa’dah, killing and wounding dozens. In response, Yemeni naval and air forces launched a joint assault on the US aircraft carrier Truman and its accompanying ships, deploying cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones. According to Sare’e, the operation forced the carrier to retreat to the northern Red Sea. His remarks came after Washington expanded sanctions against the group.

US expands sanctions against Houthis

The United States announced new sanctions on Monday targeting Yemen’s Houthi rebels as tensions escalate over attacks on Red Sea shipping. The Treasury Department revealed the measures on its website, blacklisting three shipping companies and several vessels linked to the Iran-backed group, formally known as Ansarallah. Entities sanctioned include Bagsak Shipping Inc. of Mauritius, Great Success Shipping Co. of Lebanon, Zaas Shipping & Trading Co., and vessels registered in Panama, San Marino, and Guyana.

Posted on

Spain Warns Widespread Blackout May Last Another 10 Hours….. THIS IS A MAJOR CYBER ATTACK

  • Most of Spain and Portugal are suffering a major blackout
  • Authorities are still trying to determine the cause of the outage
  • Transport links have been disrupted, with some issues reported at airports
  • Spain warns that it may take ten hours to restore power
  • France is supplying power to Spain and has offered to provide more

Update on refineries: All of Repsol’s oil-processing units in Spain are suffering disruptions because of the blackout. It’s not clear if fuels production has been reduced or whether the facilities have been taken offline.

The four main plants — Cartagena, Bilbao, Tarragona and Puertollano — can process about 775,000 barrels a day of crude, according to Bloomberg estimates
Rachel GrahamEditor
Updated 5m ago

Spain’s grid operator Red Electrica has managed to restore power in some substations across several zones in the north, south and west of the country, according to an update posted on X.
“We keep working with all of our resources to restore the energy supply as quick as possible in all territory,” it says.
Updated 8m ago

Here’s our latest mainbar, with some clues now of what might have caused this huge problem. The outage was triggered by sudden changes on the network, known as oscillations, it seems. More to follow no doubt.
Sharp Power Swings Trigger Major Blackout in Spain, Portugal
Heavy traffic following the blackout in Madrid on April 28.
Heavy traffic caused by failed traffic lights, in Madrid.

Portugal’s National Cybersecurity Center says no evidence has been found so far that points to a cyberattack for the failure of the electrical grid, according to news agency Lusa. That echoes the initial investigation of the EU’s Agency for Cybersecurity.
And Teresa Ribera, executive vice-president at the European Commission and former Spanish energy minister, also said there’s no evidence of a cyber attack.
“The main priority, of course, is to restore the electricity system and to assess and to understand what has happened,” she told reporters on the steps of the European Parliament.
John AingerClimate Reporter

Latest headlines coming in from Spain’s grid operator:
  • Spain’s Red Electrica Restored Power in North, South, West Areas
  • Red Electrica Says Power Restored in Some Substations in X Post
Updated 18m ago

It’s not just airlines and airports affected today. Public transport services have also been hit by the power issues, and there are queues as people wait for buses and trains.

Spain and Portugal Hit by Widespread Power Blackouts
People wait at a crowded bus stop in central Madrid. Source: Bloomberg

Some more news from airlines on how they’ve been affected by the blackout. Iberia said its systems are fully operational, but the Spanish carrier is allowing passengers with flights scheduled for today to change their tickets for another time.
“Given the difficulties in different airports, we offer all passengers traveling today the possibility to change their travel for another time,” the company says in a X post.
Low cost carrier Vueling said it’s working to minimize the outage’s impact on its operations. “Some of our flights may be affected,” it said on X.
Gabriela MelloEditor

Spain’s biggest fuel-maker Repsol has been forced to take its Bilbao oil refinery in northern Spain offline in the widespread power blackout.
Regional fuel supply will be closely watched, with at least two refineries on France’s west coast curbing output currently. Repsol also operates refineries in Tarragona, Puertollano and Cartagena.
Rachel GrahamEditor

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is set to head an emergency meeting of the National Security Council, which has been called to discuss the blackout. Earlier, Sanchez headed a crisis meeting at the offices of Red Electrica, the national grid operator.
Spain and Portugal Hit by Widespread Power Blackouts
A dead ATM in Lisbon. Photographer: Zed Jameson/Bloomberg
Updated 39m ago

It’s no surprise that it will take the Spanish grid some hours to start back up. With such an extensive outage, there is a meticulous process to get things up and running again called a black start. Grid operators have plans in place for this that they hope to never use.
It’s a process to build the grid back up in a stable way, recreating the careful balance between supply and demand that was somehow broken.
Spain, Portugal suffer massive ongoing blackout
A dark metro station in Madrid during the power outage. Source: Anadolu/Getty Images

In Lisbon, the city’s main airport says on its website that the power cut may affect operations.
Dylan Fraser, a US national from Stafford, Virginia, went to the airport earlier on Monday to catch a flight back to the US only to be informed through loudspeaker that his flight had been cancelled.
“They told us we had to leave the airport because it was closing,” Fraser said as he sat at the bar of the Sofitel Hotel in downtown Lisbon. “I have no idea when I will be able to go back.”

Initial investigations into the cause of the outages suggest a technical fault rather than a cyberattack, according to the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA).
“For the moment the investigation seems to point out to a technical/cable issue,” said a spokesperson for the agency in an emailed statement. “Nevertheless, ENISA is closelymonitoring the situation and we are in contact with the relevant authorities at national and EU level.”
Ryan GallagherCybersecurity Reporter

The Spanish grid operator, Red Electrica, is working on restoring the supply but doing so fully will take between 6 and 10 hours, Eduardo Prieto, a company executive, said at a press conference. The outage is due to large variations in power on the grid.
Rodrigo OrihuelaSpain Bureau Chief

I’ve been out on the streets of downtown Madrid, which are teeming with people trying to get home after many companies closed their offices because of the power outage. Shop employees were waiting outside businesses, while some restaurants remained open but were only accepting payments in cash.
Traffic police were trying to bring order to massive traffic jams. At a convenience store, people were buying flashlights, batteries, radios, camping gas, firewood and portable stoves.
Widespread Power Outage In Spain And Portugal
A person shops at a supermarket using the torch of a smartphone, in Tremp, Spain. Photographer: Javier Mostacero Carrera/Getty Images Europe

The European Commission said it’s in contact with authorities in Spain and Portugal as well as the European Network of Transmission System Operators about today’s outage. A spokesperson said:
“The Commission will keep monitoring the situation and make sure that there is smooth information exchange amongst all relevant parties. As per EU legislation in place (emergency and restoration network code), there are protocols in place to restore the functioning of the system.”
Richard BravoEuropean Government Editor

Here’s our updated story:

Spain and Portugal Hit With Worst European Blackout in Years

Spain’s competition authority CNMC suspended a meeting to discuss BBVA’s bid to acquire Banco Sabadell due to the power blackout. The CNMC had been set to issue a final decision on the bid today.

And following on from BNEF estimating that power restoration may take hours, here are the latest headlines from the grid operator on that point:
  • Red Electrica Says Restoring All Supply May Take up to 10 Hours
  • Red Electrica Says ‘Various Hours’ Needed to Restore Supply
Updated 1h 4m ago

French grid operator RTE said it has already supplied 700MW of power for consumption in Spain and is ready to raise that to 950MW once the network is able to receive it. That’s equal to about to one large power station.

RTE added in a post on X that households in the French Basque Country had earlier suffered a blackout of a few minutes only and that electricity had been restored.
James ReganParis Deputy Bureau Chief

There’s no communication from authorities yet on the cause of the blackout. Still, according to Berryman at BloombergNEF, there are not that many things that can cause country-wide blackouts.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez held a crisis meeting at the headquarters of grid operator

Red Electrica to monitor the situation. Energy Minister Sara Aagesen also took part in the meeting.
Widespread Power Outage In Spain And Portugal
A bar owner holds up an analogue radio transmitting news about the power outage in Barcelona, on April 28. Photographer: Sandra Montanez/Getty Images Europe
Rodrigo OrihuelaSpain Bureau Chief

Red Electrica Says Spanish Blackout Due to Grid Oscillation
Dara DoyleSenior Editor

More than 10 gigawatts of power going offline in one instance is “such a rare event” that it’s “hard to have a reference point” for just how much time it will take to bring the grid back up to normal operation, says Ian Berryman, head of energy systems modeling at BloombergNEF. It could be hours, he said.
Traffic during the power outage on Plaza Colon in central Madrid. Photographer: Ben Sills/Bloomberg
Updated 1h 29m ago

Repsol’s Petronor refinery in Spain’s Basque Country said it halted all units at 12:30 p.m. due to a lack of electricity. As part of the security stoppage, black smoke was released.
Rodrigo OrihuelaSpain Bureau Chief

France stands ready to help Spain:

  • France’s Rte Says Ready to Provide 950mw of Power to Spain
  • French Grid Operator Says Supplied 700mw of Power to Spain
  • French Grid Operator Rte Comments on X
Dara DoyleSenior Editor
Updated 1h 33m ago

Regular business life is being disrupted, it seems.

Dara DoyleSenior Editor

CORRECT: Following up on Javier’s post on Spain power demand, data from grid operator Red Electrica showed it was in freefall just after noon, dropping more than 10 gigawatts. That’s more than a third of the country’s total electricity need Monday.
The website is now down and the data feed can’t be accessed. It’s not clear if that’s because of the power outage or because too many people are trying to access the data now.
(Corrects spelling of reporter’s name.)
Will MathisEnergy Reporter
Updated 1h 37m ago

The Spanish government should declare a so-called Level 3 emergency to allow the Army to deploy and “preserve order if necessary,” Madrid regional President Isabel Diaz Ayuso, one of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s most vocal critics, said.
Traffic lights not working due to a power outage in central Madrid. Photographer: Ben Sills/Bloomberg
Rodrigo OrihuelaSpain Bureau Chief
Updated 1h 43m ago

Airlines are keeping a close eye on developments, and the main Madrid airport has cautioned that it’s experiencing a high degree of delays because of electrical equipment outage on the ground.
Discount carrier Ryanair said it’s “monitoring potential disruption to flights operating to/from all airports in mainland Spain and Portugal.”
Updated 1h 34m ago

While it’s too early to tell what caused this outage, the UK offers a potential clue.

Back in August 2019, there was a major blackout across London and the surrounding areas when two major power generators, a wind farm and a gas plant, unexpectedly shut off almost simultaneously during a lightning storm. Grid operators struggle to cope with such major unplanned shifts in supply or demand happening at the same time and that’s one possibility this time in Spain.
Will MathisEnergy Reporter

Here’s Madrid’s mayor on the situation in the city.

“I ask all people in Madrid to absolutely minimize displacements and, whenever possible, to stay where they are at the moment and keep roads clear. The traffic lights are down at the moment and it’s essential that emergency services can circulate.”

Updated 1h 49m ago

Data from Spain’s national grid shows a massive drop in power demand in a few seconds, Javier Blas notes:
Posted on

Palestine warns of far-right Israeli incitement to blow up Al-Aqsa Mosque

Palestine on Saturday warned of growing incitement by Israeli far-right settler groups calling for the destruction of Al-Aqsa Mosque in occupied East Jerusalem, Anadolu reports. Palestine’s Foreign Ministry condemned an AI-generated video titled “Next Year in Jerusalem,” circulating on extremist Hebrew platforms. The video shows Al-Aqsa Mosque being bombed and replaced by a so-called Third Temple. In a statement, the ministry called the video “a systematic provocation aimed at escalating attacks on Islamic and Christian holy sites in occupied Jerusalem.” It said Israel’s far-right leadership feels “emboldened to advance its Judaization and colonial agenda amid weak international reactions to its ongoing genocidal crimes, particularly in Gaza.” The ministry urged the international community and UN bodies to treat the incitement seriously and pursue legal measures under international law to halt Israel’s unilateral actions against Palestinians. While Israeli officials say the status quo at Al-Aqsa is being maintained, the Islamic Waqf in Jerusalem has rejected this claim. The status quo refers to the pre-1967 arrangement under which the waqf oversees the site and only Muslims are allowed to pray there.

On Monday, the waqf said repeated violations of the site’s sanctity mark “an unprecedented breach of its historical, religious, and legal status as a Muslim site reserved solely for Muslim worship.”

Far-right groups had earlier called for mass incursions into the Al-Aqsa compound during the Jewish Passover holiday, which began last Sunday. Since 2003, Israeli authorities have allowed settlers into the compound nearly every day. Israel occupied East Jerusalem, where Al-Aqsa is located, during the 1967 Arab-Israeli War and unilaterally annexed the city in 1980, a move not recognized by the international community. Al-Aqsa Mosque is the third-holiest site in Islam. Jews call the area the Temple Mount, believing it was the location of two ancient Jewish temples.

Posted on

Oil Prices firm….. Huge Blast Rocks Iran’s Missile Port….. IDF Goes All-In on Hamas

The physical market, however, is showing some bullish signs, according to ING, which last week noted that “signs of tightness in the prompt physical market should continue to support the oil market. This tightness can be seen in the strengthening of timespreads.”

The spokesperson for Iran’s Emergency Organization announced that following the powerful explosion at Shahid Rajaee Port in Bandar Abbas, emergency teams were quickly mobilized, transferring 516 injured individuals to hospitals so far, according to IRNA on Saturday. So far, four people have been reported dead. Investigations into the cause and damage of the explosion are still ongoing.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted an airstrike on a home in the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza, resulting in the deaths of ten people, Al Jazeera reported.

Israeli forces also shelled a house in the Maghazi refugee camp in central Gaza, injuring a number of Palestinians. Additionally, the IDF stormed the Al-Fawwar camp, which is located west of Hebron in the West Bank, firing live bullets at homes in the area.

Yemen’s Houthi militants on Monday claimed that a US military strike in a prison housing African migrants in the Saada region resulted in 68 fatalities and 47 injuries. The US initiative, dubbed “Operation Rough Rider,” continues to strike rebel positions while the Trump administration engages in diplomatic talks with Iran, the rebels’ primary supporter, regarding its expanding nuclear capabilities.

Previously, the US Military Central Command (CENTCOM) defended its stance on withholding specific information about its bombing operations in the country. “To preserve operational security, we have intentionally limited disclosing details of our ongoing or future operations,” CENTCOM stated.

Russian defenses repelled an attack by Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on the region of Bryansk, according to Alexander Bogomaz, the governor of the region. “Currently, our defenders are repelling another attempt at an attack using UAVs on the territory of the Bryansk region. The air defense forces of the Russian Defense Ministry are working to detect and destroy air targets,” Bogomaz wrote on Telegram, calling on the region’s residents to observe safety measures.

nn: it does not look like pax trump is working out so well…. oil shorts are really worried and updating their LinkedIn profiles.