BlackMask Breaking News

A selloff in stocks deepened, bonds climbed and oil tumbled to a four-year low as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the damage of a trade war will be bigger than anticipated, with the potential effects including higher inflation and slower growth. Despite the economic risks from President Donald Trump’s trade war such as China’s decision to retaliate, Powell reiterated a wait-and-see approach on rates. The S&P 500 saw its worst two-day plunge since March 2020 in a sellof that slashed over $5 trillion in value, with the gauge down 6% on Friday. The Nasdaq 100 entered a bear market. Treasury 10-year yields slid three basis points to 3.99%. The dollar rose 1%.

“The action within the market is shouting recession,” said Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at the Leuthold Group. “And market action itself is very often the final catalyst that pushes you into recession.”

 Trump blasted China for retaliating against his sweeping tariff plan and vowed his economic policies “will never change.”Later, the president noted he had a “very productive call” with Vietnam, spurring a rally in firms that have large manufacturing operations in the country, including Nike Inc. and Lululemon Athletica Inc. Megacaps plunged, with Nvidia Corp. and Tesla Inc. slumping over 7%. US-listed Chinese stocks like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Baidu Inc. also tumbled. A gauge of big banks hit the lowest since Aug. 7. The Cboe Volatility Index jumped to the highest since April 2020.

Several forecasters are turning ice cold on US equities, telling investors to refrain from buying the selloff amid the specter of a recession. Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett told investors to “short” risk assets until Trump pivots away from tariffs and toward tax cuts, higher energy supply, deregulation and an aggressive increase in the debt ceiling. UBS Global Wealth Management’s Mark Haefele cut his rating on US stocks to neutral. The chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates, whose doom-laden warnings accompanied key moments of the financial crisis in 2008, predicted that the stock market correction may deepen before investor sentiment then stabilizes as Trump dials down his global trade onslaught. “Even if in the next few weeks it looks like we’re going to start negotiations, and you get a de-escalation, I think the market corrects a little bit more, bottoms out,” Nouriel Roubini said at a gathering of economists and business leaders on the banks of Lake Como in Cernobbio, Italy.

The fastest US stock market selloff since the depths of the Covid pandemic has left valuations looking cheap. But if a recession is inevitable due to the global trade war, the definition of inexpensive becomes relative. JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it now expects the US economy to fall into a recession this year after accounting for the likely impact of tariffs announced this week by the Trump administration. “We now expect real GDP to contract under the weight of the tariffs, and for the full year (4Q/4Q) we now look for real GDP growth of -0.3%, down from 1.3% previously,” the bank’s chief US economist, Michael Feroli, said Friday in a note to clients, referring to gross domestic product. Economists generally expect that tariffs will lift inflation and slow growth, keeping the Fed in wait-and-see mode.

NN: so much for the ai boom….. now cones the bust as wall streets harvest another group of suckers money

Berkshire Hathaway denied on Friday that its billionaire CEO Warren Buffett voiced support for the tariffs imposed this week by United States President Donald Trump. “There are reports currently circulating on social media (including Twitter, Facebook and Tik Tok) regarding comments allegedly made by Warren E. Buffett. All such reports are false,” the company stated. The statement came after Trump posted a video that claimed that Buffett said the president was “making the best economic moves he’s seen in over 50 years.”

United States Senate Commerce Committee Chair Ted Cruz expressed concerns over the latest tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, saying that he is “not a fan.” “If we’re in a scenario 30 days from now, 60 days from now, 90 days from now, with massive American tariffs, and massive tariffs on American goods in every other country on earth, that is a terrible outcome,” Cruz stated in his podcast released on Friday, expressing concerns about other countries retaliating against Washington. Cruz, who ran against Trump in 2016 GOP primaries but then endorsed him ahead of the 2024 election, warned that Republicans could suffer in the 2026 midterms as a result of the tariffs and their impact on the economy. “If we go into a recession, particularly a bad recession, 2026 in all likelihood, politically would be a bloodbath,” he pointed out.

Nick note:

You really need to pay attention here because we are flirting with disaster. This tariff war can easily spin out of control and devastate the global economy. the last depression was caused by the world economy shutting down in 1930 because of trade wars. It was caused by he Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act. It was a protectionist trade measure signed into law in the President Herbert Hoover.  the act raised tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods in an effort to shield American industries from unfair  foreign competition. sound familiar? There is no discussion the US suffers the unfair trade practices. It was allowed because politicians wanted cheap consumer goods for American citizens. The cost is  d-industrializing the country. destroys the US mining including oil, farming and manufacturing base including software. Wealth is created in these  places. And  anything that disrupts a countries ability to have these resources domestically will eventually end in disaster.  And stopping the flow of manufactured goods, food,  raw materials and digital products across borders is the road we are headed\down

When goods and services stop crossing border then armies willl

Trumps mistake here is abruptly stopping the flow of goods and services and materials with the entire world. He is dramatically increasing the cost of those goods.  This is going to spin out of control.  Let me warn  you the odds are 70% that we will be in a global recession in the next 6 months. And the odds are more than 60% that that global recession will lead to a global depression.  It may be too late to stop it. Calmer heads need to prevail immediately and slow escalation of tariffs which are taxes.  These abrupt changes as you are seeing has led to a stock market that now is a major correction in just 3 days.  An economy that’s going into a nosedive. Most important thing is the psychological effects on people  as they watch their retirement accounts wipe out and their costs of food and goods increase by 25% across the board. You should be damn scared and rightly so.  Here’s my warning to you this could end up in the 1929  depression and  stock market wipe ou.t But hear me it’s far worse this time because there’s a huge amount of debt by citizens corporations and governments and that has a great chance of being defaulted on.  That’s when it’s game set match. We have to reorganize the world out of the ashes of World War III cuz could. come from this

Crude oil prices plunged over 8% on Friday after China announced sweeping new tariffs on US goods. This escalated the global trade war ignited by US President Donald Trump’s aggressive protectionist policies earlier this week. The selloff deepened after OPEC+ advanced its plan to boost production in May. Goldman Sachs cut its 2025 oil price forecasts, citing heightened recession risks and increased supply pressures in a worsening trade environment. As of 8:21 am ET, West Texas Intermediate crude oil was down 8.27% at $62 a barrel, while Brent crude fell 7.53% to $65.3. Both are on track for their lowest close since April 2021.

FOR A LAUGH SEE BULLSHIT VIDEO BELOW:

Crude oil prices extended losses on Friday as markets worry about a possible drop in demand resulting from trade tariffs imposed by the United States. Meanwhile, OPEC+ announced yesterday that it will increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in May, more than expected.

NN: FOR THE RECORD…. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BOTTOM IS IN $60.81 WTI AND $63.71 

 Eight OPEC oil-producing nations Thursday agreed to boost crude oil production beginning in May.

OPEC said in a statement that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman “reaffirmed their commitment” to voluntary production adjustments as they announced plans to boost production to a more-than-expected 411,000 barrels a day.

The move sent oil prices lower with Ice Brent which  at $65.50  a barrel in London trading. Nymex WTI prices are at $62.80 per barrel as I publish

The OPEC countries were expected to ramp up production by just under 140,000 barrels a day. They said this move will increase the compensation of the nations producing more oil. The added production is equivalent to three monthly increments of increases, according to OPEC. It comes as the 8 nations are ending a voluntary reduction in their crude oil output of 2.2 million barrels a day. The larger 22-member OPEC organization has a cut of 3.66 million barrels a day still in force through the end of 2026.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday that the military is currently “dissecting” the Gaza Strip in order to return hostages held by Hamas. “We are now dissecting the Strip and we are increasing the pressure step by step… so they will give us our hostages,” Netanyahu stated. “The longer they refuse to give them up, the more the pressure will increase until they do,” he added. The prime minister further said that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is “shifting gears” in Gaza and creating a “second Philadelphi” route, referring to the corridor on the border between Egypt and Gaza. Israel is “seizing territory, striking terrorists, and destroying infrastructure,” he stressed.

The United States is significantly increasing its military presence in the Middle East as the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Iran to reach a nuclear deal. US President Donald Trump threatened Iran with “bombing the likes of which they have never seen before,” giving the country a two-month deadline, according to reports. The US announced it is boosting the regional deterrence capabilities of its Central Command (CENTCOM), ordering the Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group to remain in place and assigning USS Carl Vinson to the area, fielding squadrons of Super Hornet strike fighters, F-35, and electronic warfare aircraft Growlers. USS Carl Vinson is currently in the Philippine Sea and is expected in Bahrain around April 10. In addition, the US has brought as many as six B-2 nuclear bombers to the Middle East and deployed a squadron of Thunderbolt subsonic attack aircraft. Meanwhile, Iran has continued producing 60% enriched uranium, with the International Atomic Energy Agency saying it now has enough stockpiles for six atomic bombs, if they are further enriched to 90%. Tehran possesses the largest number of ballistic missiles in the Middle East, according to US intelligence, including cruise and anti-ship missiles, with a range of up to 2,000 km (1,200 miles). Iran has built up a vast amount of long-range drones, some of which can allegedly carry 300 kg payloads. The regime also arms various militant groups in the region, including the Houthis. While both Tehran and Washington remain focused on deterrence for the moment, the volatile geopolitical situation and large military force on both sides cause serious concern.