The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Monday stated that millions of Israelis were forced to seek shelter due to a ballistic missile launch from Yemen. Projectiles presumably launched by the Yemeni Houthis triggered air alarms across central Israel, the army said on X. In an update, the IDF revealed it intercepted a missile from Yemen before it entered the country’s air space. There has been no information about casualties or material damage.

Oil vigilantes have been found wanting. That’s what analysts at J.P. Morgan said in a research note sent  on Thursday by Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at the company. In the research note, the J.P. Morgan analysts noted that the term bond vigilantes has long been part of the market vernacular, “referring to the concept that if governments or central banks engage in excessive spending or policies that might lead to inflation or unsustainable debt levels, bond investors – through selling bonds – will seek to exert pressure on governments or central banks to adopt policies that they perceive as fiscally responsible, often by raising borrowing costs”.

“Oil vigilantes, on the other hand, is a concept suggesting that when challenges arise and oil prices plummet, the OPEC alliance will intervene to stabilize the market and prop up prices,” the analysts added.

The J.P. Morgan analysts stated in the research note that this perspective was echoed during a Bloomberg panel at the International Energy event in late February, “where almost 20 percent of respondents identified OPEC’s output decisions as the most influential factor for the oil market this year, compared to just three percent who viewed non-OPEC supply growth as the primary driver of price formation”.In the research note, the J.P. Morgan analysts noted that, “as the Trump administration prepares to impose hefty tariffs on a wide range of imports starting April 2, affecting virtually all countries and increasing the risk of a recession, oil prices have indeed tumbled”. “With Brent crude trading just above $72.00 per barrel – aside from a brief dip last September – prices are at their lowest since December 2021,” the analysts said in the report, adding that Brent and WTI prompt time spreads have also weakened.“Yet, this hasn’t set off any alarms at OPEC,” the J.P. Morgan analysts said in the research note. “Instead, the alliance has demonstrated greater tolerance for the potential adverse economic fallout from tariffs and has opted to proceed with its plan to gradually increase crude oil output beginning in April 2025,” they added. “Those who were waiting on a ‘put’, expecting OPEC to reverse its stance, are now facing the possibility that they may have misread the market,” they continued. The J.P. Morgan analysts stated in the note that, for the alliance to change its course, significant market imbalances, such as a sudden drop in demand or a large increase in supply leading to swelling inventories, would likely be needed. “So far, none of these conditions have materialized – the downgrades in U.S. GDP have been almost fully offset by upgrades in Europe’s and China’s growth, keeping our demand projections unchanged,” the analysts highlighted.

“While OECD inventories are four percent above their 2000-2015 levels, they remain three percent below their five-year averages,” they added.

The analysts went on to warn in the research note that the short-term outlook is also unclear. “Our fair-value model suggests that current Brent prices, which are hovering in the low $70s, are about $6 undervalued, but most of this underperformance is likely due to a large three percent decline in the U.S. trade-weighted dollar since mid-January,” they said.

“Net investor positioning remains short. From a technical standpoint, Brent prices are attempting to stabilize near the July 2023 channel support at $69.96, but the lack of pattern-based buy signals and the choppy nature of the recent bounce make it difficult to confidently assert that the rebound over the past week or so marks a sustainable transition to a rally phase,” they added. The J.P. Morgan analysts highlighted in the note that, “fundamentally”, they “still anticipate Brent prices to recover into the mid-to-high $70s over the next couple of months, before dipping below $70 and ending the year in the mid-$60s, averaging around $73”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Saturday to launch a wave of airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. The strikes follow a barrage of rockets fired earlier in the day toward northern Israel, which officials attributed to the Iran-backed group. According to a statement from Katz’s office, the IDF was directed to hit dozens of Hezbollah sites, including rocket launchers and a command center. The Israeli military described the rocket fire as a “blatant violation” of ceasefire understandings and warned that Lebanon’s government would be held responsible. Hezbollah has denied responsibility for the morning rocket barrage, while Lebanon’s Prime Minister, Nawaf Salam, warned against the resurgence of military conflict.

Israel  kills Hamas official, raid Gaza

An Israeli airstrike conducted in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis reportedly killed Hamas political leader Salah al-Bardweel along with his wife, according to Quds News Network. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reportedly bombed a home in the area of Al-Fakhari in southern Khan Younis, killing at least four people. Additionally, Israeli forces stormed al-Mawasi, which lies west of Khan Younis and shelled the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza.

nn: this s shot of all hell breaking loose. but it ain’t bad for a start

Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned Saturday that Moscow reserves the right to respond, including “symmetrically,” if Ukraine continues attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Zakharova accused Ukraine of violating a US-brokered understanding that aimed to prevent attacks on energy facilities.”Despite the agreement, which Kiev seemed to have officially supported, treacherous attacks on Russian territory continue,” she said, describing the Ukrainian government as a “Nazi regime” and alleging it also targets civilian sites.

Russian drones kill 3 in Zaporizhzhia despite talks

Three people were killed and 12 others injured in a Russian drone strike on the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian officials reported Saturday. The attack came despite a recently announced limited ceasefire, raising questions about its scope and enforcement. Regional governor Ivan Fedorov said fires broke out in residential areas, damaging homes, vehicles, and social infrastructure. Ukraine’s air force said Russia launched 179 drones and decoys overnight, of which 100 were intercepted and 63 likely jammed. Debris also caused fires in the Kiev and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Russia claimed it shot down 47 Ukrainian drones in a separate attack.

NN: one hell o a cease fire!

Yemen’s Houthis have officially claimed responsibility for the ballistic missile that was intercepted earlier by Israel, Al Jazeera reported. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree stated during a television address that the projectile was intended for the Ben Gurion Airport which is located near Tel Aviv. Additionally, Saree said that the group launched more than one attack against the United States aircraft carrier USS Harry S Truman in the Red Sea, though the US military has not yet confirmed the incident.

Syrian media reports Israeli airstrike near Damascus

Syrian state media on Saturday reported that Israel carried out an airstrike near the town of Najha, just south of Damascus.The strike occurred in the afternoon, though no details were immediately provided about casualties or the specific targets hit. Najha is located near several military facilities and has previously been cited in reports of Israeli strikes.

A fresh explosion has intensified a fire at a Russian oil depot in the Krasnodar region, days after a Ukrainian drone strike hit the site, regional authorities said on Friday. The blast occurred due to tank depressurization during firefighting efforts, leading to a burning oil spill. The fire expanded to cover 10,000 square meters near the village of Kavkazskaya, with over 450 firefighters involved and two injured. The Russian Foreign Ministry previously accused Ukraine of violating a proposed ceasefire, while Kiev claims Moscow is also attacking civilian targets.

NN: maybe the drone did not get the memo abot the peace deal

Russia: Sudzha station seriously damaged

A Russian investigative committee said on Friday that the gas measuring station in the town of Sudzha in the Kursk Oblast sustained significant damage. Russia accused Ukrainian forces of carrying out a terrorist act at the station, claiming it caused a “deliberate explosion” and opening a criminal case. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military said the Russian government is “escalating a discrediting campaign against Ukraine.” It alleged that Russian forces repeatedly shelled the station, including last summer, blaming Ukraine for the attacks. The incident follows partial ceasefire negotiations, in which both Russia and Ukraine agreed in talks with the United States to a 30-day pause in attacks on energy infrastructure.

nn: i guess ceasefire translates different in Russian

Oil rises 1.5% after new Iran sanctions

Oil prices continued to follow an upward trend on Thursday after the United States imposed fresh sanctions targeting Iran’s oil sector in the latest round of economic escalation. The sanctions heightened investor worries about the situation in the Middle East where the US has stepped up airstrikes against the Yemeni Houthis and amid the breakdown of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

West Texas Intermediate  sold for $68.34 per barrel. Brent for the same month’s settlements sold for $71.78 per barrel.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners, known as OPEC+, revealed on Thursday an updated compensation cuts plan that will run through June 2026.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Oman have all committed to oil production cuts, OPEC shared in a statement. The compensation cuts will stand at between 189,000 barrels per day and 435,000 barrels per day, depending on the month.

Previously, only Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia have shared that they would cut supply to make up for the overproduction in 2024.

NN: told you so