United States President Donald Trump announced he ordered “powerful” and “decisive’ military strikes against the Houthis in Yemen, describing them as a terrorist threat that has disrupted global shipping. Trump blamed previous inaction for allowing the attacks to continue, stating, “It has been over a year since a US-flagged commercial ship safely sailed through the Suez Canal, the Red Sea, or the Gulf of Aden.” Trump vowed to restore maritime security, saying no force would block US ships from international waters. The US president warned the Houthis to halt their assaults immediately or face severe consequences. “YOUR TIME IS UP, AND YOUR ATTACKS MUST STOP, STARTING TODAY,” he declared. Trump also demanded that Iran stop supporting the Houthis, warning that Washington intends to hold Tehran “fully accountable” and that his administration “won’t be nice about it.”
Key Market Indicator Warning About A Stocks Market Ceash
A century-old indicator that has helped predict the direction of the US stock market is signaling more pain ahead for battered investors. Known as the Dow Theory, it holds that moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average must be confirmed by transport stocks, and vice versa, to be sustained.
As of Thursday’s close, the 20-member Dow Jones Transportation Average — a barometer of consumer and industrial demand — has slumped 19% from its November peak, teetering near so-called bear-market territory. Taken together with the 9.3% slump in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from its December record, the indicator is flashing a worrisome sign for the broader stock market, which has been hammered in recent days by deepening concerns over the economy and the Trump administration’s aggressive stance on tariffs.
“As a risk barometer check, that’s not a great backdrop for the overall market,” said Todd Sohn, managing director of ETF and technical strategy, at Strategas Securities. The weakness in the two Dow indexes highlights how bearish signals are starting to come in fast from different corners of the market, he added, noting steep declines in homebuilders, chipmakers and industrials
Dow transports index heading for worst week since September 2022
For some time now, investors have been concerned about the toll that an uncertain macroeconomic environment can take on businesses and consumers. Those worries came to the forefront over the past week as several airlines and retailers released cautious outlooks, citing weak demand.
“The animal spirits created after the presidential election appear to have given way to increased pessimism about the impact tariffs could have on inflation and economic activity in the US,” Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior analyst Lee Klaskow wrote in a note this week. The broad stock market has slumped into a correction, the plunge in transportation stocks — with the index on track for its worst weekly decline since September 2022 — points to bigger troubles ahead.
For technical strategists, these two indexes declining indicates that it’s time to sell. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, noted that the current selloff has pushed the Dow Jones Transportation Average below its 2024 lows, a key level for technicians.
“To make matters worse, its Dow Theory cousin — the Dow Jones Industrial Average — has also rolled over and violated the pullback lows from January, checking the box for a sell signal as the averages confirm the primary trend of the market is no longer higher,” he said.
NN: i want to be clear here. the tmie has come to begin operations. blackmask market news and commentary coming tomorrow
Ray Dalio and Salesforce’s Benioff on AI, trade wars and new world order
nn: every once in a while i run across a must see interview, pay close attention to the part about a stock market bubble and debt market crash. A slow motion tectonic shift that has begun.
Recorded at CNBC’s CONVERGE LIVE event in Singapore, Sara Eisen speaks to industry titans, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates and Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff, who appear on stage together for the first time. On the economic challenges facing the US, Bridgwater Associates Founder Ray Dalio explained “they have to sell a quantity of debt that the world is not going to want to buy.” Revealing what he thinks the Trump administration needs to do, Dalio told CNBC “the deficit must go from what will be projected now to be about 7.2% of GDP to about 3% of GDP, otherwise there will be a supply-demand problem.” Also on the agenda was AI and the agentic future. “The next wave is the biggest, most exciting wave of technology in the history of technology. It is the shift to digital labor,” Salesforce’s Benioff told CNBC. The software company CEO also said he’ll be “the last CEO of Salesforce who only managed humans.”
John Bolton’s Warning to Allies on How to Survive the Trump Rollercoaster
John Bolton pulls no punches as he dissects the enigmatic foreign policy approach of U.S. President Donald Trump, unraveling misconceptions held by many observers worldwide. Drawing upon his extensive experience as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations under George W. Bush and later as Trump’s own National Security Adviser, Bolton provides a rare insider’s perspective into managing the turbulent and unpredictable tendencies of a president known for changing his stance multiple times within a single day. He offers pointed guidance on what Ukraine, Europe, Canada, and the broader NATO alliance must do to successfully navigate Trump’s shifting political landscape. With remarkable candor, Bolton reveals a troubling yet essential truth: the U.S. president is particularly susceptible to personal flattery—a weakness expertly leveraged by Russia, yet often underestimated by America’s allies. Bolton cites the tense Oval Office exchange between President Trump and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky not merely as an example of diplomatic friction, but as a vivid illustration of Trump’s volatile temperament and his deep-seated personal animosity toward the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief. This illuminating conversation between Ambassador Bolton and Kyiv Post’s Jason Smart serves as both a cautionary tale and a strategic roadmap for nations seeking to effectively engage a leader whose personal impulses frequently override conventional diplomacy.
Iran Sanctions Pushing Oil Prices Higher
A new round of sanctions targeting Iran’s oil industry and the country’s oil minister boosted oil prices earlier today, offsetting the negative effect of the International Energy Agency’s latest monthly report, released Thursday The IEA said in the March edition of its Oil Market Report that global oil supply was 600,000 bpd higher than demand so far this year, thanks to stronger U.S. production and weaker demand. The report followed OPEC’s latest update, which revealed an increase in the group’s total production despite the commitment to caps aimed at supporting global prices. “The United States is currently producing at record highs and is forecast to be the largest source of supply growth in 2025,” the IEA said, adding that “The latest round of sanctions on Russia and Iran has yet to significantly disrupt loadings, even as some buyers have scaled back purchases.” The agency also revised down its demand growth forecast for 2025 by 70,000 bpd to 1.03 million barrels daily, which further pressured prices before the news of the fresh Iran sanctions broke.
The U.S. Treasury announced the sanctions on Thursday, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying that “The Iranian regime continues to use the proceeds from the nation’s vast oil resources to advance its narrow, alarming self-interests at the expense of the Iranian people.
Treasury will fight and disrupt any attempts by the regime to fund its destabilizing activities and further its dangerous agenda.” As a result, prices rebounded earlier today in anticipation of supply disruptions in the OPEC member, which has been exempted from the production cuts due to the U.S. sanctions.
nn: This is the main secret event/crises the oil market facing.
Other then a knee jerk reaction to a “peace” deal in Ukraine their ae no other drivers
Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Hugh For Gas Nothing Burger For Oil…..
The energy market implications of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire could be huge for natural gas.. That’s what Rystad Energy’s Head of Geopolitical Analysis, Jorge Leon, said in a breaking news market update sent to the oil trading desks on Wednesday by the Rystad team. Leon highlighted in the update, however, that it is “still early in the process”.
“As early market reactions to yesterday’s news have shown, the geopolitical risk premium in the oil and gas markets will fall sharply if a truce is implemented, bringing down prices,” Leon said in the update.
“More importantly, the likelihood of a permanent peace agreement has now increased compared to just a few days ago, after the infamous televised clash between President Zelensky and President Trump in the Oval Office,” he added. “In addition to the obvious humanitarian benefits, a permanent ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine would have wide-ranging and sweeping implications for global energy markets,” he continued. Leon noted in the update that a ceasefire would most definitely include sanctions relief on Russian hydrocarbons, adding that a greater availability of Russian gas would push prices down, particularly the European gas benchmark TTF.
For oil, downside price pressure triggered by a permanent ceasefire might be more limited, Leon said in the update.
“Russian crude production is limited by its OPEC+ target and not so much by sanctions, but higher flows could materialize,” he said.
“At the same time, the end of hostilities would reduce the geopolitical risk premium in the oil markets,” he added. “Interestingly, a lower oil price might be more conducive for the U.S. to apply maximum pressure on Iran,” Leon noted. “The Trump administration may consider it easier to apply maximum pressure on Iran and lose around 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian exports in a low-price environment with OPEC+ increasing production and amid growing Russian supplies,” he went on to state. Leon said in the update that global trade flows could also shift if a negotiated peace is reached. “As such, a resumption of some Russian piped gas to Europe could materialize,” Leon highlighted.
“We are still far away from a permanent ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, but these developments offer a glimmer of hope,” he added.
Rystad describes itself on its site as an independent research and energy intelligence company, “equipping clients with data, insights and education that power better decision-making”.
Shorts and Longs Are Cutting Risk in Oil
- The ongoing U.S.-Canada tariff war has created significant market uncertainty.
- Europe’s gas withdrawal season is coming to an end, with lower-than-average inventory draws due to warmer weather.
- Brent crude hit a six-month low earlier this week and speculative traders cut both long and short positions to reduce risk.
On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to double his planned tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%. Trump said his latest move comes in response to a threat by the province of Ontario to put a 25-percent surcharge on electricity exports to some U.S. states. Whereas Trump delayed most of the tariffs he had imposed on Canada and Mexico, Canada has responded forcefully, with the Canadian government announcing on Monday it would match American tariffs on roughly $30 billion worth of U.S. goods initially, and another $125 billion 21 days later, for a total of $155 billion. Meanwhile, Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced he will move forward with a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to three U.S. states starting Monday, and turn off access completely if the United States adds new tariffs on Canadian goods.
However, the tariff war took yet another turn after the provincial government of Ontario suspended its planned surcharges on electricity sold to the United States, prompting Trump to withdraw his threat to double Canada’s tariffs.
The back and forth tariff wars and the ensuing market confusion about the potential effect of various U.S. energy and foreign policies have been acting as a severe drag on oil prices. Brent crude for May delivery rebounded 2.1% to trade at $70.98 per barrel at 11.50 am ET on Wednesday after Trump withdrew his threats while WTI crude climbed 2.3% to change hands at $67.74 per barrel. Oil prices have cratered over the past month with Brent prices well off its one-month high of $77 per barrel. Front-month Brent settled at a six-month settlement low of $69.28 per barrel on 10 March, and sank to a three-year low of $68.33/bbl intra-day on 5 March. All of the first 15 months on the Brent curve fell w/w by more than $2/bbl; the w/w fall for the front month was $2.34/bbl and the largest move was the $2.45/bbl w/w fall in the August 2025 contract. Further along the curve, Brent for delivery five years out fell by $0.63/bbl to a 20-month low of $66.37/bbl. Of the 35 trading days since President Trump’s inauguration, Brent has settled lower on 20 and has recorded a lower intra-high on 25 days, with the cumulative price fall reaching $10.01/bbl at settlement on 10 March.
According to commodity analysts at Standard Chartered, the price undershoot has been exacerbated by a further deterioration in speculative positioning.
StanChart’s combined crude oil money-manager positioning index has fallen by 6.9 w/w to -35.0, while the equivalent indices have fallen w/w for all the main products (heating oil, gasoil, and gasoline blendstock).
The experts note that while the balance of speculative positioning has shifted towards the short side, both shorts and longs have been cutting risk.
Over the past week, longs across the four main Brent and WTI contracts fell 44.7 million barrels (mb) to a 12-week low of 467.5mb, while shorts fell by 21.8 mb from the previous week’s six-month high to 249.8 mb.
Meanwhile, the rate of Europe’s gas draws decelerated sharply over the past week, with the EU gas inventory withdrawal season almost over. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data, Europe’s gas inventories stood at 43.04 billion cubic metres (bcm) on 9 March, with the w/w draw clocking in at 1.54 bcm, or just 59% of the five-year average and less than half the previous week’s 3.11 bcm draw. The draws over the past weekend were particularly low due to warm weather, with inventories falling by just 28 million cubic metres (mcm) on Saturday and 32 mcm on Sunday; the lowest draws since the start of the withdrawal season in early November. On both days, gas inventories actually increased in France and Germany.
European natural gas futures fell toward €42/MWh on Wednesday after Ukraine accepted a U.S-proposed 30-day ceasefire with Russia, ending three days of gains. The truce raised hopes for a potential easing of the conflict and the possibility of increased Russian gas supplies.
NN: The $3 range in oil has now become a $2 range and I suspect by the end of today will be back to a $1 range. Let me tell you the real story. the big boys are getting trashed out whacked and closing out this trade. For some reason they bought it to the algorithm bullshit that the war would be over and Russia would be producing the shit out of oil. The Truth is Russia’s been producing to Ita OPEC quota. And Russia is not going over his quota. it’s bumping up against is agreement with OPEC. We just have to wait this peade deal out. If there is a Ukraine piece deal with Russia we could get an oil to swoon the bottom end of the range. It might be a buying opportunity….. for now everybody take a deep breath. Waves of oil are not going to be landing on US shores
Khamenei: Negotiations with US will tighten sanctions……. Khamenei: Trump’s letter aims to deceive public
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated on Wednesday that negotiating with the United States will not remove Washington’s sanctions on his country but will only “increase” pressure. “If the goal of entering negotiations is for the sanctions to be removed, negotiating with this US administration won’t result in the sanctions being removed,” Khamenei clarified in a post on X. Earlier today, it was reported that US President Donald Trump’s letter to Khamenei would be delivered to Iran by an official from the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
nn we need to bomb these assholes into their virgin heaven
Khamenei: Trump’s letter aims to deceive public
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei criticized on Wednesday the letter sent to him by United States President Donald Trump calling on Iran to negotiate a nuclear deal. He said the letter is a “deception of the world’s public opinion” designed to make the international community believe Iran is not willing to join talks. “We sat down and negotiated for several years. This same person threw the completed, signed negotiation off the table and tore it up,” Khamenei said, referring to Trump’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, during his first term in office. He claimed there is no need for talks “when we know it won’t work.”
EIA Weekly Petroleum Report
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending March 7, 2025
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 435.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.7 million barrels per day during the week ending March 7, 2025, which was 321 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 86.5% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.5 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.5 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 343 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.8 million barrels per day, 10.6% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 578 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 249 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 5.7 million barrels from last week and are 1% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories
both decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels last week and are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 3.4 million barrels from last week and are 10% below the five year
average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 6.0 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.7 million barrels a day, up by 3.9% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.7 million barrels a day, up by 0.1% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.1 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 9.5% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.5% compared with the same four week period last year.
Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum imports take effect
The United States started enforcing 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, as per President Donald Trump’s announcement. Previously, trade restrictions mainly targeted Mexico, Canada and China, but the new tariffs now cover all steel and aluminum imports. The move eliminates exemptions from Trump’s 2018 metal tariffs and increases aluminum duties from 10%. While two rounds of tariffs on China have already been enacted, some Canadian and most Mexican trade remains exempt until at least April 2. Just before finalizing the policy, the White House backed away from an earlier threat to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum.